Landslide susceptibility assessment by Dempster–Shafer and Index of Entropy models,Sarkhoun basin,Southwestern Iran

Landslides are natural disasters often activated by interaction of different controlling environmental factors, especially in mountainous terrains. In this research, the landslide susceptibility map was developed for the Sarkhoun catchment using Index of Entropy (IoE) and Dempster–Shafer (DS) models. For this purpose, 344 landslides were mapped in GIS environment. 241 (70%) out of the landslides were selected for the modeling and the remaining (30%) were employed for validation of the models. Afterward, 10 landslide conditioning factor layers were prepared including land use, distance to drainage, slope gradient, altitude, lithology, distance to roads, distance to faults, slope aspect, Topography Wetness Index, and Stream Power Index. The relationship between the landslide conditioning factors and landslide inventory maps was determined using the IoE and DS models. In order to verify the models, the results were compared with validation landslide data not employed in training process of the models. Accordingly, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were applied, and Area Under the Curve (AUC) was calculated for the obtained susceptibility maps using the success (training data) and prediction (validation data) rate curves. The land use was found to be the most important factor in the study area. The AUC are 0.82, and 0.81 for success rates of the IoE, and DS models, respectively, while the prediction rates are 0.76 and 0.75. Therefore, the results of the IoE model are more accurate than the DS model. Furthermore, a satisfactory agreement is observed between the generated susceptibility maps by the models and true location of the landslides.     

Evaluation of the effects of uncertainty on the predictions of landslide occurrences using the Shannon entropy theory and Dempster–Shafer theory

Natural Hazards - One of the requirements for planning and decision-making to develop the infrastructures is to prepare the landslide occurrence hazard map. For this purpose, in this article, the...     

Interpretation of Na–Cl–Br Systematics in Sedimentary Basin Brines: Comparison of Concentration, Element Ratio, and Isometric Log-ratio Approaches

Mathematicians and geochemists have long realized that compositional data intrinsically exhibit a structure prone to spurious and induced correlations. This paper demonstrates, using the Na–Cl–Br system, that these mathematical problems are exacerbated in the study of sedimentary basin brines by such processes as the evaporation or dissolution of salts owing to their high salinities. Using two published datasets of Na–Cl–Br data for fluids from the Appalachian Basin, it is shown that log concentration and Na/Br versus Cl/Br methods for displaying solute chemistry may lead to misinterpretation of mixing trends between meteoric waters (for example shallow drinking water aquifers) and basinal brines, partially due to spurious mathematical relationships. An alternative approach, based on the isometric log-ratio transformation of molar concentration data, is developed and presented as an alternative method, free from potential numerical problems of the traditional methods. The utility, intuitiveness, and potential for mathematical problems of the three methods are compared and contrasted. Because the Na–Cl–Br system is a useful tool for sourcing solutes and investigating the evolution of basinal brines, results from this research may impact such critical topics as evaluating sources of brine contamination in the environment (possibly related to oil and gas production), evaluating the behavior of fluids in the reservoir during hydraulic fracturing, and tracking movement of fluids as a result of geologic CO₂ sequestration.     

An extended GIS-based Dempster–Shafer theory for play-based hydrocarbon exploration risk analysis under spatial uncertainty conditions,case study: Zagros sedimentary basin,Iran

This research proposes a geospatial information system (GIS)-based framework extending the Dempster–Shafer theory to manage spatial uncertainties in the hydrocarbon exploration process. The output would be a composite common risk segment (CCRS) map which categorised the study area according to the exploration risk and interval uncertainties computed by the proposed model in the GIS environment. This exhibits the quantity of the entire Dempster–Shafer functions for the hydrocarbon resources in the potential areas in the Fars domain, Zagros sedimentary basin in the central part of Iran. The produced CCRS outlines approximately 25.9% of the study area which is highly promising for the hydrocarbon potential reservation. The accuracy of the model was validated using the area under curve. It was observed that 79.6% were classified correctly for the training and 73.4% for the testing data by the applied model. According to the obtained results, the proposed knowledge guided – data-driven method enhanced the precision of the classification more than the data-driven or knowledge-driven methods separately.     

Water–Rock Interactions: An Investigation of the Relationships Between Mineralogy and Groundwater Composition and Flow in a Subtropical Basalt Aquifer

A holistic study of the composition of the basalt groundwaters of the Atherton Tablelands region in Queensland, Australia was undertaken to elucidate possible mechanisms for the evolution of these very low salinity, silica- and bicarbonate-rich groundwaters. It is proposed that aluminosilicate mineral weathering is the major contributing process to the overall composition of the basalt groundwaters. The groundwaters approach equilibrium with respect to the primary minerals with increasing pH and are mostly in equilibrium with the major secondary minerals (kaolinite and smectite), and other secondary phases such as goethite, hematite, and gibbsite, which are common accessory minerals in the Atherton basalts. The mineralogy of the basalt rocks, which has been examined using X-ray diffraction and whole rock geochemistry methods, supports the proposed model for the hydrogeochemical evolution of these groundwaters: precipitation + CO₂ (atmospheric + soil) + pyroxene + feldspars + olivine yields H₄SiO₄, HCO₃ ⁻, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺ + kaolinite and smectite clays + amorphous or crystalline silica + accessory minerals (hematite, goethite, gibbsite, carbonates, zeolites, and pyrite). The variations in the mineralogical content of these basalts also provide insights into the controls on groundwater storage and movement in this aquifer system. The fresh and weathered vesicular basalts are considered to be important in terms of zones of groundwater occurrence, while the fractures in the massive basalt are important pathways for groundwater movement.     

Comparison Between Stress and Strain Quantities of the Failure–Deformation Process of Fennoscandian Hard Rocks Using Geological Information

The aim of this paper was to compare the stress and strain quantities that are related to the failure–deformation process of hard rock. The data used here was obtained from laboratory uniaxial compression tests performed on different types of Fennoscandian hard rocks. The failure–deformation process quantities were compared at each deformation stage and for each single specimen. Moreover, geological information such as the rock origin process and the rock characteristics of the specimens were studied and linked to the stress and strain quantities. The purpose was to investigate the influence of the rock origin process and rock characteristics on these quantities. The main results of this study showed that the normalized crack damage lateral strain (ε _3cd/ε _3p ) and the volumetric strain (ε _crv?ci and ε _v?cd) quantities were strongly affected by the grain size. The normalized and volumetric quantities are weakly dependent on the mineral composition.     

Slope Instability in Static and Dynamic Conditions for Urban Planning: the ‘Oltre Po Pavese’ Case History (Regione Lombardia – Italy)

The paper describes a method for the evaluation of slope instability for urban planning purposes, applied in the test area Oltre Po Pavese (Regione Lombardia, Italy). A statistic and a probabilistic approach have been applied for the estimation of landslide activations and for the definition of potentially unstable areas. The displacement has been obtained through a simplified dynamic analysis, using deterministic methods: first the critical horizontal acceleration coefficient (K_c) has been evaluated, second the displacement has been calculated using the K_c values and the seismic input values, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and Arias intensity (Ia), through empirical relationships between displacement and Ia values for different K_c values. The results can be used by the regional government to give to the municipalities of the area a guide for the selection of the zones to be studied with future and more detailed analyses.     

Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and GIS for predictive Cu porphyry potential mapping: a case study in Ahar–Arasbaran Zone (NW, Iran)

Selection of potential areas for mineral exploration is a complex process and needs many diverse criteria. Combining analytic hierarchy process (AHP) modeling with geographic information system (GIS) provides an effective means for studies of mineral potential mapping evaluation. Fuzzy AHP is an extension of conventional AHP and by using fuzzy theory is obtained the advantage rather AHP method. In this paper to provide, potential mapping for Cu porphyry mineralization used fuzzy AHP and GIS in the Ahar–Arasbaran areas, several criteria, such as geology, geochemical and geophysical data, alteration, and faults were used. Each criterion was evaluated with the aid of fuzzy AHP and mapped by GIS. The method allowed a mixture of quantitative and qualitative information with group decision. The results and its validation demonstrate the acceptable outcomes for copper porphyry exploration.     

The Coalfields of the Karst-Erosional Downcuttings of the Volga–Ural Oil and Gas Basin as a Factor of Geofluidodynamic Heterogeneity

Doklady Earth Sciences - This work considers the Early Carboniferous coal-bearing deposits of the karst-erosional paleo-downcuttings of the Volga–Ural oil and gas basin. The depth of their...     

Carbonate Chemistry and Air–Sea CO2 Flux in a NW Mediterranean Bay Over a Four-Year Period: 2007–2011

The Service d’Observation de la Rade de Villefranche-sur-Mer is designed to study the temporal variability of hydrological conditions as well as the abundance and composition of holo- and meroplankton at a fixed station in this bay of the northwest Mediterranean. The weekly data collected at this site, designated as “Point B” since 1957, represent a long-term time series of hydrological conditions in a coastal environment. Since 2007, the historical measurements of hydrological and biological conditions have been complemented by measurements of the CO₂–carbonic acid system parameters. In this contribution, CO₂–carbonic acid system parameters and ancillary data are presented for the period 2007–2011. The data are evaluated in the context of the physical and biogeochemical processes that contribute to variations in CO₂ in the water column and exchange of this gas between the ocean and atmosphere. Seasonal cycles of the partial pressure of CO₂ in seawater (pCO₂) are controlled principally by variations in temperature, showing maxima in the summer and minima during the winter. Normalization of pCO₂ to the mean seawater temperature (18.5 °C), however, reveals an apparent reversal of the seasonal cycle with maxima observed in the winter and minima in the summer, consistent with a biogeochemical control of pCO₂ by primary production. Calculations of fluxes of CO₂ show this area to be a weak source of CO₂ to the atmosphere during the summer and a weak sink during the winter but near neutral overall (range ?0.3 to +0.3 mmol CO₂ m^?2 h^?1, average 0.02 mmol CO₂ m^?2 h^?1). We also provide an assessment of errors incurred from the estimation of annual fluxes of CO₂ as a function of sampling frequency (3-hourly, daily, weekly), using data obtained at the Hawaii Kilo Nalu coastal time-series station, which shows similar behavior to the Point B location despite significant differences in climate and hydrological conditions and the proximity of a coral reef ecosystem.     

Sr,Nd, and Hf Isotope Composition of Rocks of the Reft Gabbro–Diorite–Tonalite Complex (Eastern Slope of the Middle Urals): Petrological and Geological Implications

This paper reports Rb–Sr and Sm–Nd isotope data on the gabbro–diorite–tonalite rock association of the Reft massif (eastern margin of the Middle Urals) and Lu–Hf isotope data on zircon populations from these rocks. In terms of Nd and Hf isotope composition, the rocks of the studied association are subdivided into two distinctly different groups. The first group consists of gabbros and diorites, as well as plagioclase granites from thin dikes and veins cutting across the gabbros. In terms of ⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd _i = 0.512518–0.512573 (ε_Nd(T) = +8.6...+9.7) and ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf _i = 0.282961–0.283019 (ε_Hf(T) = +15.9...+17.9), these rocks are practically identical to depleted mantle. Their Nd and Hf model ages show wide variations, but in general are close to their crystallization time. The second group is represented by tonalites and quartz diorites, which compose a large body occupying over half of the massif area. These rocks are characterized by the lower values of ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd _i = 0.512265–0.512388 (ε_Nd(T) = +3.7...+6.0) and ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf _i = 0.282826–0.282870 (ε_Hf(T) = +11.1...+12.7). The T_DM values of the second group are much (two–three times) higher than their geological age (crystallization time), which indicates sufficiently long crustal residence time of their source. The initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr in the rocks of both the groups varies from 0.70348 to 0.70495. This is likely explained by the different saturation of melts with fluid enriched in radiogenic Sr. The source of this fluid could be seawater that was buried in a subduction zone with oceanic sediments and released during slab dehydration. Obtained data make it possible to conclude that the formation of the studied gabbro–diorite–tonalite association is a result of spatially and temporally close magma formation processes in the crust and mantle, with insignificant contribution of differentiation of mantle basite magma.     

Experimental peridotite–melt reaction at one atmosphere: a textural and chemical study

Sieve-textured clinopyroxene and spinel are common in mantle xenoliths and have been interpreted to be the result of partial melting, mantle metasomatism and host magma–xenolith reaction during transport. In this paper, we test the latter hypothesis with a series of reduced and oxidized experiments at 1,200 and 1,156°C at one atmosphere using a synthetic leucitite melt and discs of natural peridotite. Our results show that sieve texture development on clinopyroxene and spinel in mantle xenoliths is the result of a multistage reaction process. In the first step, orthopyroxene undergoes incongruent dissolution to produce a silica and alkali-rich melt together with olivine. As this melt migrates along grain boundaries it causes incongruent dissolution of clinopyroxene and spinel. The incongruent dissolution mechanism involves complete dissolution of the clinopyroxene or spinel followed by nucleation and growth of a secondary clinopyroxene or spinel once the reacting melt is saturated. The reaction of orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene and spinel with infiltrated host magma results in a range of melt compositions that are very similar to those interpreted to be due to very small degrees of partial melting. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Urban consolidation and house prices: a case study of Melbourne 1990–2004

This paper explores the links between a strategic policy, urban consolidation, and house prices by examining the changes in the mix of housing and in house price for the period 1991–2004. We contend that urban consolidation could be seen as a source of additional supply, (which might be expected to be felt in lower prices and so contribute to a local policy objective) but also as a stimulus to demand (by developers who could bid up the price of lots where it was understood more housing could be built). Analyses were carried out at the metropolitan and sub-regional scales using correlation tests. The research finds very weak statistical connections, and concludes that this policy has not been associated with price changes.     

Groundwater mixing and mineralization processes in a mountain–oasis–desert basin,northwest China: hydrogeochemistry and environmental tracer indicators

Hydrogeochemistry and environmental tracers (²H, ¹⁸O, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) in precipitation, river and reservoir water, and groundwater have been used to determine groundwater recharge sources, and to identify mixing characteristics and mineralization processes in the Manas River Basin (MRB), which is a typical mountain–oasis–desert ecosystem in arid northwest China. The oasis component is artificial (irrigation). Groundwater with enriched stable isotope content originates from local precipitation and surface-water leakage in the piedmont alluvial–oasis plain. Groundwater with more depleted isotopes in the north oasis plain and desert is recharged by lateral flow from the adjacent mountains, for which recharge is associated with high altitude and/or paleo-water infiltrating during a period of much colder climate. Little evaporation and isotope exchange between groundwater and rock and soil minerals occurred in the mountain, piedmont and oasis plain. Groundwater δ²H and δ¹⁸O values show more homogeneous values along the groundwater flow direction and with well depths, indicating inter-aquifer mixing processes. A regional contrast of groundwater allows the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios and δ¹⁸O values to be useful in a combination with Cl, Na, Mg, Ca and Sr concentrations to distinguish the groundwater mixing characteristics. Two main processes are identified: groundwater lateral-flow mixing and river leakage in the piedmont alluvial–oasis plain, and vertical mixing in the north oasis plain and the desert. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios and selected ion ratios reveal that carbonate dissolution and mixing with silicate from the southern mountain area are primarily controlling the strontium isotope hydrogeochemistry.     

Optimal water and waste load allocation in reservoir–river systems: a case study

In this paper, a new methodology is developed for optimization of water and waste load allocation in reservoir–river systems considering the existing uncertainties in reservoir inflow, waste loads and water demands. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model is used to optimize reservoir operation considering the inflow uncertainty, and another model called PSO-SA is developed and linked with the SDP model for optimizing water and waste load allocation in downstream river. In the PSO-SA model, a particle swarm optimization technique with a dynamic penalty function for handling the constraints is used to optimize water and waste load allocation policies. Also, a simulated annealing technique is utilized for determining the upper and lower bounds of constraints and objective function considering the existing uncertainties. As the proposed water and waste load allocation model has a considerable run-time, some powerful soft computing techniques, namely, Regression tree Induction (named M5P), fuzzy K-nearest neighbor, Bayesian network, support vector regression and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, are trained and validated using the results of the proposed methodology to develop real-time water and waste load allocation rules. To examine the efficiency and applicability of the methodology, it is applied to the Dez reservoir–river system in the south-western part of Iran.     

Building a scientific and ecological earth–on an important field of geo-science: Geo-environment and construction engineering effect

This paper explores the 12 aspects of geo-environment and construction engineering, including the earth evolution, the structure of geological bodies, the comprehensive utilization of resources, the geo-environmental effect, the engineering construction, the sustainable development and, etc. This paper presents that the good environment could only be created through the conservation and efficient utilization of resources, the joint efforts of disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as the avoidance of adverse environmental effect caused by human activities. This paper concludes that, to build a scientific and ecological earth, the development laws of geo-science must be learnt.