A review of the temporal and spatial variability of Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric circulation based upon ERA-40

A survey of the spatial and temporal behavior of the atmospheric general circulation as it relates to both polar regions is presented. The review is based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA-40), updated using ECMWF operational analyses. The analysis spans 1960–2005 in the Northern Hemisphere, but is restricted to 1979–2005 in the Southern Hemisphere because of difficulties experienced by ERA-40 prior to the modern satellite era.The seasonal cycle of atmospheric circulation is illustrated by focusing on winter and summer. The huge circulation contrasts between the land-dominated Northern Hemisphere and the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere stand out. The intensification of the North Atlantic Oscillation/Northern Annular Mode and the Southern Annular Mode in DJF is highlighted and likely due to warming of the tropical Indian Ocean. The Arctic frontal zone during northern summer and the semi-annual oscillation throughout the year in the Southern Hemisphere are prominent features of the high latitude circulation in the respective hemispheres.Rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is used to describe the primary modes of temporal variability affecting both polar regions, especially the links with the tropical forcing. The North Atlantic Oscillation is a key modulator of the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic sector, especially in winter, and is the dominant control on the moisture transport into the Arctic Basin. The Pacific-South American teleconnection patterns are primary factors in the high southern latitude circulation variability throughout the year, especially in the Pacific sector of Antarctica where the majority of moisture transport into the continent occurs.     

Stratospheric climate and variability from a general circulation model and observations

The climate and natural variability of the large-scale stratospheric circulation simulated by a newly developed general circulation model are evaluated against available global observations. The simulation consisted of a 30-year annual cycle integration performed with a comprehensive model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The observations consisted of a 15-year dataset from global operational analyses of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model evaluation concentrates on the simulation of the evolution of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres. The December–February climatology of the observed zonal mean winter circulation is found to be reasonably well captured by the model, although in the Northern Hemisphere upper stratosphere the simulated westerly winds are systematically stronger and a cold bias is apparent in the polar stratosphere. This Northern Hemisphere stratospheric cold bias virtually disappears during spring (March–May), consistent with a realistic simulation of the spring weakening of the mean westerly winds in the model. A considerable amount of monthly interannual variability is also found in the simulation in the Northern Hemisphere in late winter and early spring. The simulated interannual variability is predominantly caused by polar warmings of the stratosphere, in agreement with observations. The breakdown of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex appears therefore to occur in a realistic way in the model. However, in early winter the model severely underestimates the interannual variability, especially in the upper troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) zonal mean temperature is systematically colder in the model, and the simulated winds are somewhat too strong in the upper stratosphere. Contrary to the results for the Northern Hemisphere spring, this model cold bias worsens during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September–November). Significant discrepancies between the model results and the observations are therefore found during the breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. For instance, the simulated Southern Hemisphere stratosphere westerly jet continuously decreases in intensity more or less in situ from June to November, while the observed stratospheric jet moves downward and poleward.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–8 Sept. 1995 under the auspice of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil.     

A model investigation of the impact of increases in anthropogenic NO x emissions between 1967 and 1980 on tropospheric ozone

Recent observations suggest that the abundance of ozone between 2 and 8 km in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has increased by about 12% during the period from 1970 to 1981. Earlier estimates were somewhat more conservative suggesting increases at the rate of 7% per decade since the start of regular observations in 1967. Previous photochemical model studies have indicated that tropospheric ozone concentrations would increase with increases in emissions of CO, CH₄ and NO _x . This paper presents an analysis of tropospheric ozone which suggests that a significant portion of its increase may be attributed to the increase in global anthropogenic NO _x emissions during this period while the contribution of CH₄ to the increase is quite small. Two statistical models are presented for estimating annual global anthropogenic emissions of NO _x and are used to derive the trend in the emissions for the years 1966–1980. These show steady increase in the emissions during this interval except for brief periods of leveling off after 1973 and 1978. The impact of this increase in emissions on ozone is estimated by calculations with a onedimensional (latitudinal) model which includes coupled tropospheric photochemistry and diffusive meridional transport. Steady-state photochemical calculations with prescribed NO _x emissions appropriate for 1966 and 1980 indicate an ozone increase of 8–11% in the Northern Hemisphere, a result which is compatible with the rise in ozone suggested by the observations.     

Tunable diode laser measurements of trace gases during the 1988 Polarstern cruise and intercomparisons with other methods

Measurements of NO₂, HCHO, and H₂O₂ were made by the highly specific method of mid infra-red absorption spectroscopy using tunable diode lasers (TDLAS) during the 1988 Polarstern expedition. The TDLAS data are compared to those obtained during the cruise using less direct methods. Southern Hemisphere NO₂ levels suggest nett photochemical destruction of O₃ in the boundary layer. Northern Hemisphere HCHO averaged 0.47±0.2 ppbv; the HCHO measurements are used in a simple calculation to estimate OH noontime maxima of 3–6×10⁶ cm^-3.     

Mean annual poleward energy transports by the oceans in the southern hemisphere

A survey is made of the published estimates of the components of the poleward flux of energy by the atmosphere in the Southern Hemisphere in order to determine the total atmospheric transport. Together with recent measurements by satellite of the Earth's radiation budget this allows a new estimate of the required poleward energy transport by the oceans in the Southern Hemisphere for mean annual conditions. Results show that the ocean and atmosphere each contribute similar amounts for 0–30°S and that the ocean probably also transports about one third of the total at 60°S. The latter is in contrast to similar latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere where the ocean transport is negligible, but consistent with the different distribution of land and sea in the two hemispheres.     

Distribution,speciation, and budget of atmospheric mercury

Total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations over the Atlantic Ocean and over Central Europe were measured repeatedly in the years 1978–1981. The latitudinal TGM distribution showed a pronounced and reproducible interhemispherical difference with higher TGM concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere. TGM was found to be vertically well mixed within the troposphere. The TGM concentration seems to increase with time at a rate of 10±8%/yr in the Northern and 8±3%/yr in the Southern Hemisphere. Measurements of mercury speciation showed that elemental mercury is the main TGM component contributing more than 92% and 83% of TGM in marine and continental air, respectively. The tropospheric mercury burden was calculated to be 6×10⁹g. The interhemispheric distribution and temporal and spatial variability of TGM imply a tropospheric residence time of TGM of about 1 yr. Sink strengths calculated independently from the measured mercury concentration on particles and in rainwater are consistent with the above figures.     

Teleconnections: Northern hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian monsoon rainfall

Summary In this study a search for teleconnection is made between the Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) through the correlation analysis approach. Monthly grid-point 50 hPa geopotential height data and the June to September IMR are used for the period 1958–1990.Analysis reveal that there are domains over the Northern Hemisphere where the variation of the geopotential heights during the preceding months of the monsoon period are related with the interannual behaviour of the IMR. During January and February significant positive correlations are seen along the lower latitudes (10°–20° N). However, the maximum relationship is seen during March, with high positive correlations over the Canadian sector and negative correlations over the east Asian sector. The correlation configuration weakens considerably, once the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cases are excluded, suggesting that the correlation pattern obtained may be a manifestation of the ENSO cycle. Implications of these results in the long range forecasting of IMR are also discussed.With 5 Figures     

全球闪电活动与对流层上部NO及O3的相关性分析

为了解闪电对对流层上部微量气体的贡献,利用全球水资源和气候中心(GHRC)提供的1995年4月—2006年6月的闪电卫星格点资料,以及高层大气研究卫星(UARS)上的卤素掩星试验(HALOE)1991年10月—2005年11月的观测资料,分析了全球闪电与对流层上部NO和O3体积分数的时空分布特征及其相关性。结果表明:全球闪电12、1、2月集中在南半球,6—8月集中在北半球,全球闪电的季节分布与NO、O3类似;NO体积分数在350 h Pa附近达到最大,该高度的南半球NO体积分数变化范围为7×10-12~11×10-12、北半球为3×10-12~17×10-12;450~300 h Pa,北半球夏季O3体积分数呈明显增加趋势,且同一高度上夏季的值比年平均值大25%左右,南半球夏季O3体积分数高于冬季,但差异并不大。结论进一步证明了闪电与对流层上部NO及O3的密切关系,也为研究全球气候变化提供有力证据。     

从海平面气压场的波谱分析比较南、北半球大气环流的变化

本文应用沿纬圈的谐波分析,对1951—1960年各年逐月南、北半球海平面气压进行分解,对比两个半球的副热带(30°N,30°S)及中纬度(50°N,50°S)的超长波活动发现:(1)南、北两个半球月平均大气环流都存在有性质不同的两类变化,即季节性变化与非季节性变化。在海陆对比明显的北半球,不论西风带还是副热带季节性变化都比较清楚。而南半球仅副热带季节性变化明显,西风带则是非季节性变化占优势。(2)南、北两个半球大气环流的季节变化,都有明显的年际差异。通常,北半球夏季建立(南半球是夏季结束)的年际差异大,北半球夏季结束(南半球是夏季建立)的年际差别较小。(3)超长波位置的年际变化与海陆分布有密切关系。陆地面积大的地区,占优势的超长波位置比较稳定,在几乎全为海洋的50°S,则超长波无论占优势与否,波槽位置的年际变化都较大。     

A SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS STUDY ON THE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE OBSERVED BY GOSAT SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING

The variation of the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentration plays an important role in global climate and agriculture. We analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of CO2 in the China region and around the globe with the CO2 column mixing ratios observed by the Japanese GOSAT satellite (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite). In order to make sure that the accuracy of the CO2 data retrieved by the satellite meets the needs of the climate characteristics analyses, we ran a validation on the CO2 column mixing ratios retrieved by the satellite against the ground-based TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) observation data. The result shows that the two sets of data have a correlation coefficient of higher than 0.7, and a bias of within 2.2 ppmv. Therefore, the GOSAT CO2 data can be used for the climate characteristics analysis of global CO2. Our analysis on the spatial-temporal characteristics of the CO2 column mixing ratios observed during the period of June 2009 through January 2014 proved that, with the impact of the natural emission of near ground CO2 and human activities, the global CO2 concentration has a significant latitudinal characteristics with its highest level averaging 390 ppmv in the 0-40oN latitudinal zone in the Northern Hemisphere, and 387 ppmv in the Southern Hemisphere. China has a relatively higher CO2 concentration with the highest level exceeding 398 ppmv, and the eastern area higher than the western area. The variation of global CO2 concentration shows a seasonal pattern, i.e. the CO2 concentration reaches its highest in spring in the Northern Hemisphere averaging more than 392 ppmv, second highest in winter, and lowest in summer averaging less than 387 ppmv. It fluctuates the most in the Northern Hemisphere with an average concentration of 392.5 ppmv in April, and 385.5 ppmv in July. While in the Southern Hemisphere, the seasonal fluctuation is smaller with the highest concentration occurring in July. Over the recent years, the global CO2 concentration has shown an elevating trend with an average annual increase rate of 1.58 ppmv per year. It is a challenge that the human kind has to face to slow down the increase of the CO2 concentration.     

Two warm frontal passages at Ottawa,Canada

The numerical simulations of Baumhefner (1971, 1972) and Miyakoda and Umscheid (1973) have shown that a “wall” placed at or near the equator has a serious effect on Northern Hemisphere forecasts after 10–14 days.

In practice, however, numerical models have available some information from the Southern Hemisphere. The question is posed, “How much information from the Southern Hemisphere is necessary to yield a forecast for the Northern Hemisphere which is more accurate than that obtained by integrating over the Northern Hemisphere alone?”

A simple numerical experiment demonstrates that a global model in which only the largest scales of the Southern Hemisphere are known at initial time yields a more accurate forecast for the Northern Hemisphere than a hemispheric model.     

Actual and insolation-weighted Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea-ice between 1973–2002

Actual and insolation-weighted Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea ice are binned by latitude bands for the years 1973–2002. Antarctic sea-ice is also analyzed for the years 1980–2002. The use of insolation weighting provides an improved estimate of the radiative feedbacks of snow cover and sea-ice into the atmosphere. One conclusion of our assessment is that while a decrease in both areal and insolation-weighted values have occurred, the data does not show a monotonic decrease of either Arctic sea-ice or Northern Hemisphere snow cover. If Arctic perennial sea-ice is decreasing since the total reduction in areal coverage is relatively small, a large portion of it is being replenished each year such that its radiative feedback to the atmosphere is muted. Antarctic sea-ice areal cover shows no significant long-term trend, while there is a slight decrease in the insolation-weighted values for the period 1980–2002. From the early 1990s to 2001, there was a slight increase in both values. The comparison of general circulation model simulations of changes over the last several decades to observed changes in insolation-weighted sea-ice and snow cover should be a priority research topic.     

Response of the Météo-France climate model to changes in CO2 and sea surface temperature

The climate response to an increase in carbon dioxide and sea surface temperatures is examined using the Météo-France climate model. This model has a high vertical resolution in the stratosphere and predicts the evolution of the ozone mixing ratio. This quantity is fully interactive with radiation and photochemical production and loss rates are accounted for. Results from a 5-year control run indicate a reasonable agreement with observed climatologies. A 5-year simulation is performed with a doubled CO₂ concentration using, as lower boundary conditions, mean surface temperatures anomalies and sea ice limits predicted for the years 56–65 of a 100-year transient simulation performed at Hamburg with a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The perturbed simulation produces a global mean surface air warming of 1.4 K and an increase in global mean precipitation rate of 4%. Outside the high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the model simulates a strong cooling in the stratosphere reaching 10 K near the stratopause. Temperature increases are noticed in the lower polar stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere caused by an intensification in the frequency of sudden warmings in the perturbed simulation. The low and mid-latitude stratospheric cooling leads to an ozone column enhancement of about 5%. Other features present in similar studies are exhibited in the troposphere such as the stronger surface warming over polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere, the summer time soil moisture drying in mid-latitudes and the increase in high convective cloudiness in tropical regions.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil Correspondence to: JF Mahfouf     

Large-Scale Temperature Changes across the Southern Andes: 20th-Century Variations in the Context of the Past 400 Years

Long-term trends of temperature variations across the southern Andes (37–55° S) are examined using a combination of instrumental and tree-ring records. A critical appraisal of surface air temperature from station records is presented for southern South America during the 20th century. For the interval 1930–1990, three major patterns in temperature trends are identified. Stations along the Pacific coast between 37 and 43° S are characterized by negative trends in mean annual temperature with a marked cooling period from 1950 to the mid-1970s. A clear warming trend is observed in the southern stations (south of 46°S), which intensifies at higher latitudes. No temperature trends are detected for the stations on the Atlantic coast north of 45° S. In contrast to higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere where annual changes in temperature are dominated by winter trends, both positive and negative trends in southern South America are due to mostly changes in summer (December to February) temperatures. Changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) around 1976 are felt in summer temperatures at most stations in the Pacific domain, starting a period with increased temperature across the southern Andes and at higher latitudes.Tree-ring records from upper-treeline were used to reconstruct past temperature fluctuations for the two dominant patterns over the southern Andes. These reconstructions extend back to 1640 and are based on composite tree-ring chronologies that were processed to retain as much low-frequency variance as possible. The resulting reconstructions for the northern and southern sectors of the southern Andes explain 55% and 45% ofthe temperature variance over the interval 1930–1989, respectively. Cross-spectral analysis of actual and reconstructed temperatures over the common interval 1930–1989, indicates that most of the explained varianceis at periods >10 years in length. At periods >15 years, the squaredcoherency between actual and reconstructed temperatures ranges between 0.6 and 0.95 for both reconstructions. Consequently, these reconstructions are especially useful for studying multi-decennial temperature variations in the South American sector of the Southern Hemisphere over the past 360 years. As a result, it is possible to show that the temperatures during the 20thcentury have been anomalously warm across the southern Andes. The mean annual temperatures for the northern and southern sectors during the interval 1900–1990 are 0.53 °C and 0.86 °C above the1640–1899 means, respectively. These findings placed the current warming in a longer historical perspective, and add new support for the existence of unprecedented 20th century warming over much of the globe. The rate of temperature increase from 1850 to 1920 was the highest over the past 360 years, a common feature observed in several proxy records from higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.Local temperature regimes are affected by changes in planetary circulation, with in turn are linked to global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Therefore, we explored how temperature variations in the southern Andes since 1856 are related to large-scale SSTs on the South Pacific and South Atlantic Oceans. Spatial correlation patterns between the reconstructions and SSTs show that temperature variations in the northern sector of the southern Andes are strongly connected with SST anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific. This spatial correlation pattern resembles the spatial signature of the PDO mode of SST variability over the South Pacific and is connected with the Pacific-South American (PSA) atmospheric pattern in the Southern Hemisphere. In contrast, temperature variations in the southern sector of the southern Andes are significantly correlated with SST anomalies over most of the South Atlantic, and in less degree, over the subtropical Pacific. This spatial correlation field regressed against SST resembles the `Global Warming' mode of SST variability, which in turn, is linked to the leading mode of circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Certainly, part of the temperature signal present in the reconstructions can be expressed as a linear combination of four orthogonal modes of SST variability. Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis, performed on SST across the South Pacific and South Atlantic Oceans, indicate that four discrete modes of SST variability explain a third, approximately, of total variance in temperature fluctuations across the southern Andes.     

Low-frequency variability and CO2 transient climate change

Results from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) are used to perform the first in a series of studies of the various time and space scales of climate anomalies in an environment of gradually increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) (a linear transient increase of 1% per year in the coupled model). Since observed climate anomaly patterns often are computed as time-averaged differences between two periods, climate-change signals in the coupled model are defined using differences of various averaging intervals between the transient and control integrations. Annual mean surface air temperature differences for several regions show that the Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere and that land areas warm faster than ocean. The high northern latitudes outside the North Atlantic contribute most to global warming but also exhibit great variability, while the high southern latitudes contribute the least. The equatorial tropics warm more slowly than the subtropics due to strong upwelling and mixing in the ocean. The globally averaged surface air temperature trend computed from annual mean differences for years 23–60 is 0.03 C per year. Projecting this trend to the time of CO₂ doubling in year 100 produces a warming of 2.3° C. By chance, one particular northern winter five-year average geographical difference pattern in the Northern Hemisphere from the coupled model resembles the recent observed pattern of surface temperature and sea-level pressure anomalies. This pattern is not consistent from one five-year period to the next in any season in the model. However, multidecadal averages in the coupled model show that the North Atlantic warms less than the rest of the high northern latitudes, and recent observations may be a manifestation of this phenomenon. Consistent geographic patterns of climate anomalies forced by increased CO₂ in the model are more evident with a longer averaging interval. There is also the possibility that the CO₂ climate-change signal may itself be a function of time and space. The general pattern of zonal mean temperature anomalies for all periods in the model shows warming in the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere. This pattern (or one similar to it taking into account the rest of the trace gases) could be looked for in observations to verify the enhanced greenhouse effect. A zonal mean pattern, however, could prove scientifically satisfactory but of little value to policymakers seeking regional climate-change forecasts. These results from the coupled model underscore the difficulty in identifying a time- and space-dependent fingerprint of greenhouse warming that has some practical use from short climatic records and point to the need to understand the mechanisms of decadal-scale variability.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Tropospheric methane in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere

Results of more than 800 new measurements of methane (CH₄) concentrations in the Southern Hemisphere troposphere (34–41° S, 130–150° E) are reported. These were obtained between September 1980 and March 1983 from the surface at Cape Grim, Tasmania, through the middle (3.5–5.5 km) to the upper troposphere (7–10 km). The concentration of CH₄ increased throughout the entire troposphere over the measurement period, adding further support to the view that CH₄ concentrations are currently increasing on a global scale. For data averaged vertically through the troposphere the rate of increase found was 20 ppbv/yr or 1.3%/yr at December 1981. In the surface CH₄ data a seasonal cycle with a peak to peak amplitude of approximately 28 ppbv is seen, with the minimum concentration occurring in March and the maximum in September–October. A cycle with the same phase as that seen at the surface, but with a significantly decreased amplitude, is apparent in the mid troposphere but no cycle is detected in the upper tropospheric data. The phase and amplitude of the cycle are qualitatively in agreement with the concept that the major sink for methane is oxidation by hydroxyl radicals. Also presented is evidence of a positive vertical gradient in methane, with a suggestion that the magnitude of this gradient has changed over the period of measurements.     

Global Climatic Impacts of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

Part of the uncertainty in predictions by climate models results fromlimited knowledge of the stability of the thermohaline circulation ofthe ocean. Here we provide estimates of the response of pre-industrial surface climatevariables should the thermohalinecirculation in the Atlantic Ocean collapse. For this we have usedHadCM3, an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model that is run without fluxadjustments. In this model a temporary collapse was forced by applying a strong initial freshening to the top layers of the NorthAtlantic. In the first five decades after the collapse surface air temperatureresponse is dominated by cooling of much of the NorthernHemisphere (locally up to 8 °C, 1–2 °C on average) and weakwarming of theSouthern Hemisphere (locally up to 1 °C, 0.2 °C onaverage). Response is strongest around the North Atlantic but significant changesoccur over the entire globe and highlight rapidteleconnections.Precipitation is reduced over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere.A southward shift of the IntertropicalConvergence Zone over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific createschanges in precipitation that are particularly large in South America andAfrica. Colder and drier conditions in much of the Northern Hemisphere reducesoil moisture and net primary productivity of the terrestrial vegetation. Thisis only partlycompensated by more productivity in the Southern Hemisphere.The total global net primary productivity by the vegetation decreases by5%. It should be noted, however, that in this version of the model thevegetation distribution cannotchange, and atmospheric carbon levels are also fixed. After about 100 yearsthe model's thermohaline circulation has largelyrecovered, and most climatic anomalies disappear.     

The global distribution of methane in the troposphere

Methane has been measured in air samples collected at approximately weekly intervals at 23 globally distributed sites in the NOAA/GMCC cooperative flask sampling network. Sites range in latitude from 90° S to 76° N, and at most of these we report 2 years of data beginning in early 1983. All measurements have been made by gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector at the NOAA/GMCC laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. All air samples have been referenced to a single secondary standard of methane-in-air, ensuring a high degree of internal consistency in the data. The precision of measurements is estimated from replicate determinations on each sample as 0.2%. The latitudinal distribution of methane and the seasonal variation of this distribution in the marine boundary layer has been defined in great detail, including a remarkable uniformity in background levels of methane in the Southern Hemisphere. We report for the first time the observation of a complete seasonal cycle of methane at the South Pole. A significant vertical gradient is observed between a sea level and a high altitude site in Hawaii. Globally averaged background concentrations in the marine boundary layer have been calculated for the 2 year-period May 1983–April 1985 inclusive, from which we find an average increase of 12.8 ppb per year, or 0.78% per year when referenced to the globally averaged concentration (1625 ppb) at the mid-point of this period. We present evidence that there has been a slowing down in the methane growth rate.Presented at the Conference on the Scientific Application of Baseline Observations of Atmospheric Composition (SABOAC), Aspendale, Australia, 7–9 November 1984.     

多窗谱分析方法及其在全球变暖研究中的应用

多窗谱分析方法是一种低方差、高分辨的谱分析方法 ,尤其适合于非线性气候系统中高噪声背景下弱信号、时频演变信号的诊断分析。文中简要地介绍了多窗谱分析方法的基本原理 ,并将其用于近 1 5 0 a来全球及南、北半球温度变化的研究。结果表明 :(1 )在温度呈线性变暖的背景趋势下 ,北半球、全球年平均温度还具有显著的 40～ 70 a的准周期低频振荡 ,它们与变暖过程中的波动性密切相关 ;(2 )年代际振荡信号在北半球温度序列中也相当明显 ,南半球则存在多种低于 5 a尺度的显著振荡周期 ,半球或全球 ENSO振荡分量、QBO周期信号的振幅都具有缓变包络的特性 ;(3 )与传统功率谱估计、最大熵谱估计结果的对比表明 ,多窗谱分析方法方法得到的谱估计分辨力高 ,稳定性强。     

Antarctic sea-ice relationships with indices of the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere

A link between the Antarctic sea-ice extent and low-frequency atmospheric variations, particularly ENSO, has been suggested by recent modeling and empirical studies. This question is examined here using a high-resolution (by week, by region) data base of Antarctic sea-ice extent for the 1973–1982 period. Although of relatively short duration by Northern Hemisphere standards, such a data base offers an opportunity rare in Southern Hemisphere climate studies. The seaice variations are examined in the context of longer-term indices of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. These are a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and an index of sea-level pressure (SLP) wavenumber one in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. The indices are updated through 1982, and their associations with regional-scale pressure indices in the Australia-New Zealand sector are also examined. The 1973–1982 period is anomalous when compared with the period 1951–1972. Correlation analysis of the monthly sea ice and circulation index values reveals that much of the apparent link between the ice and the SOI suggested in previous studies arises from autocorrelations present in both data sets and the strong annual cycle of sea-ice extent. Removing these effects from the data and re-running the correlations reveals that most of the resulting significant associations between the ice and one or other of the circulation indices can probably be explained on the basis of chance. In order to reconcile these findings with previous studies that show some strong ice-circulation interactions on regional scales, only those months in which significant correlations occur between both largescale circulation indices and the sea ice are examined further. These occur preferentially in the Ross and Weddell sectors, which constitute the regions contributing most to the variability of Antarctic sea ice. The analysis suggests that the sea-ice-extent changes lag the SOI by several months but may precede changes in extratropical SLP wavenumber one. Confirmation of these tentative regional ice extent-circulation teleconnections necessarily awaits the forward extension of the high-resolution sea-ice data base beyond the 10 years available here.This paper is based on material presented at the Conference on Mechanisms of Interannual and Longer-Term Climatic Variations held at the University of Melbourne, Australia: December 8–12, 1986.