Detection of temperature variability and trends in the lower troposphere over Delhi: A study of joint influence of ENSO and Land use/ Land cover during 1980–2015

A study of radiosonde observations for temperature at 850 hPa over Delhi for a period of 35 years was conducted. The influence of atmospheric oscillations and geophysical events like El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropospheric temperature variability showed indicative trends for changing urban climate in Delhi. The inter‐annual variation in surface temperature and its relationship with land use changes and land cover changes (LULCC) was also examined. LULCC and urban expansion into peripheral areas of Delhi (towards the West, North, North‐West and South) at the cost of agricultural and wasteland was found to be extensive. The upper range of the surface temperature has shifted by ~6°C. The post‐monsoon and winter months from November to February have experienced a considerable increase in the average temperature in the period examined. The monsoon months from June to September have undergone cooling of ~0.5°C–1°C at 850 hPa. An inverse relationship exists between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the monthly averaged temperature. The temperature of the atmosphere over Delhi at 850 hPa has increased only marginally (~ 0.3°C) for the time period 1980–2015. Bi‐modal peaks were the most peculiar features observed in mean monthly temperature variation during 2000–2009.     

Thermal structure of the lakes of the North-West of Russia during the freeze-up period

On the basis of analyzing long-term field data, we investigated the vertical thermal structure of 66 lakes of the North-West of Russia during the freeze-up period. The largest variability in thermal structure is characteristic for low-drainage shallow water bodies. Detailed data were obtained at self-contained buoy stations located in a small Lake Vendyurskoe (southern Karelia) were used to identify water temperature changes at the depths for a winter season as well as making assessments of het flows at the water–bottom and water–ice interfaces. The interannual water temperature variability at the depths reaches 2°C. The main geographical factors influencing the formation of thermal stratifications in the 66 lakes used in the study during the winter period are their mean depth, area, water residence time and geographical latitude. The largest vertical water temperature gradients are characteristic for the group of the smallest and shallow lakes, in the bottom layers of which the water temperature exceeds the temperature of maximum density, whereas in the deep lakes (more than 15 m) the water temperature is below 4°C. The lowest values of water temperature are observed in large lakes. The water temperature in the upper layer (up to 10 m) of drainage water bodies also decreases to 0–1°C as the result of the removal of heat with the river discharge. According to the thermal stratifications, the lakes are categorized as small (shallow, deep and drainage lakes), medium-sized and large shallow and large deep lakes. The suggested regression model permits a typical water temperature to be assessed at standard depths at the end of a winter season for any water body in the study region using available geographical information. The verification of the model is done from independent data for eight lakes of Finland.     

Fossil chironomid assemblages and inferred summer temperatures for the past 14,000 years from a low-elevation lake in Pacific Canada

Fossil midge remains in a sediment core from Lake Stowell, a low-elevation lake in coastal British Columbia, Canada, were used to assess temporal changes in chironomid communities and to produce quantitative estimates of mean July air temperature (MJAT) for the past 14,000 years based on two different transfer functions. Chironomid assemblages are diverse throughout much of the record, with most taxa present at low relative abundances. The basal portion of the sediment record is characterized by low head capsule concentrations, taxonomic diversity and organic matter content, all of which increase towards the early Holocene. Inferred temperatures suggest a cool late-glacial interval with a minimum MJAT of 12.5 °C, ~2 °C cooler than the inferred modern temperature. Summer temperatures gradually increased from this minimum until a brief cooling of as much as ~3 °C relative to modern that coincides with the Younger Dryas chronozone. An interval of warmer summers with MJAT of ~16 to 18 °C (2–3 °C warmer than modern) is inferred between ~10,500 and 8000 cal year BP. This early Holocene warm period was followed by generally cooler inferred temperatures in the middle and late Holocene. The midge-inferred temperature record from Lake Stowell is generally consistent with other temperature reconstructions from the region based on chironomid remains and other climate proxies. This research underscores the potential of low-elevation, mid-latitude sites for chironomid-based temperature reconstructions. In order to maximize the availability of modern analogues for robust temperature reconstructions from similar sites, calibration datasets should be expanded to include more sites from the warm end of the temperature gradient.     

西北地区山区融雪期气候变化对径流量的影响(英文)

Water resources in the arid land of Northwest China mainly derive from snow and glacier melt water in mountainous areas. So the study on onset, cessation, length, tempera-ture and precipitation of snowmelt period is of great significance for allocating limited water resources reasonably and taking scientific water resources management measures. Using daily mean temperature and precipitation from 8 mountainous weather stations over the pe-riod 1960?2010 in the arid land of Northwest China, this paper analyzes climate change of snowmelt period and its spatial variations and explores the sensitivity of runoff to length, temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period. The results show that mean onset of snowmelt period has shifted 15.33 days earlier while mean ending date has moved 9.19 days later. Onset of snowmelt period in southern Tianshan Mountains moved 20.01 days earlier while that in northern Qilian Mountains moved only 10.16 days earlier. Mean precipitation and air temperature increased by 47.3 mm and 0.857℃ in the mountainous areas of Northwest China, respectively. The precipitation of snowmelt period increased the fastest, which is ob-served in southern Tianshan Mountains, up to 65 mm, and the precipitation and temperature in northern Kunlun Mountains increased the slowest, an increase of 25 mm and 0.617℃, respectively, while the temperature in northern Qilian Mountains increased the fastest, in-creasing by 1.05℃. The annual runoff is also sensitive to the variations of precipitation and temperature of snowmelt period, because variation of precipitation induces annual runoff change by 7.69% while change of snowmelt period temperature results in annual runoff change by 14.15%.     

长江三角洲城市带扩展对区域温度变化的影响

Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional cli- matic trend of temperature in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows: 1) There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing–Zhenjiang–Yangzhou, Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28–0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2) The urban heat island (UHI) effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer>autumn>spring>winter. 3) The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4) The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.     

Current Trends in Climate Change in Yakutia

The spatial distribution patterns of climatic changes in Yakutia are considered. For 26 meteorological stations of Yakutia we calculated the linear trend coefficients of climatic characteristics: air temperature (mean annual, January and July temperatures) and the mean annual amount of atmospheric precipitation from 1966 to 2016. Maps of climate change trends were compiled from linear trend coefficients. A spatial analysis of the zonal (regional) peculiarities of the climate of Yakutia has been carried out. An increase in air temperature was established for the 50-year period under consideration. It was found that the annual values of the air temperature trend are positive and, on average, a characteristic trend change interval is 0.3 to 0.6 °C/10 yr. Most of the meteorological stations recorded trends of air temperature with maximum values in winter and minimum values in summer. It was determined that the values of the trends in annual precipitation show different directions, and positive trends occur on more than 70% of the territory of Yakutia. Their maximum corresponds to the mountain-taiga regions of Southern Yakutia. Negative trends in precipitation with values of up to–15 mm/10 yr. are observed in tundra landscapes. The findings show that different regions of Yakutia respond differently to climate change. The trend of an increase in mean annual temperature is largely due to the rise in temperatures during the winter months. The rise in air temperature in Yakutia may be part of global warming. Over the last 50 years there has been an increase in the amount of precipitation in Yakutia as a whole.     

Trends in the near-zero range of the minimum air-temperature distribution

This study estimated the trends in the number of days that fall within the near-zero (0?°C) range of the temperature continuum. This narrow range has importance for potential transportation hazards and freeze-thaw cycles. While the tails of the air-temperature distribution and their trends often are closely examined under the climate change context, the frequency and trend of other portions of the air-temperature distribution can be equally important, as many societal impacts are caused by events in the non-tail region, such as near-zero °C temperatures (NZT). Examining the trend of the number of NZT days over the conterminous USA for the period of 1948–1949 through 2010–2011, we found three distinct spatial clusters. The most distinctive spatial clusters are found along the West Coast (positive temperature trends leading to a decrease in NZT days), the High Plains and Northern Rockies (positive temperature trends leading to an increase in NZT days), and the southeastern USA (negative temperature trends leading to an increase in NZT days). While trends in the number of NZT days are linked to changes in mean minimum air temperature, increasing minimum temperature leads to a positive trend at NZT days only at some locations.     

冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响

基于山西省境内较为均匀分布的70 个地面气象观测站1970-2012 年冬季逐日气温资料,采用线性倾向估计法分析了负积温、最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温的变化特征,采用累积距平法确定其突变点,以突变点为界分为前后2 个时间段,依据前后时间段等值线的变化分析冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响。结果表明：山西省负积温呈现显著减少趋势（通过了α=0.01 的显著检验）,最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温呈现不显著升高趋势;突变后,负积温平均减少了103.4℃,最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温分别升高了0.8℃和0.7℃;在3 个指标中,决定山西省冬小麦能否种植的关键因子是负积温和年极端最低气温,最冷月平均气温的影响较小;冬季气候变暖后,平均状况下,冬小麦可种植区域面积扩大了约2.9×10⁶ hm²,扩大52%,80%保证率下,冬小麦种植面积扩大了约2.3×10⁶ hm²,扩大79%。     

Climate change on the southern slope of Mt. Qomolangma （Everest） Region in Nepal since 1971

Based on monthly mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature and monthly mean precipitation data from 10 meteorological stations on the southern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region in Nepal between 1971 and 2009, the spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic change in this region were analyzed using climatic linear trend, Sen＇s Slope Estimates and Mann-Kendall Test analysis methods. This paper focuses only on the southern slope and attempts to compare the results with those from the northern slope to clarify the characteristics and trends of climatic change in the Mt. Qomolangma region. The results showed that： （1） between 1971 and 2009, the annual mean temperature in the study area was 20.0℃, the rising rate of annual mean temperature was 0.25℃/10a, and the temperature increases were highly influenced by the maximum temperature in this region. On the other hand, the temperature increases on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma region were highly influenced by the minimum temperature. In 1974 and 1992, the temperature rose noticeably in February and September in the southern region when the increment passed 0.9℃. （2） Precipitation had an asymmetric distribution; between 1971 and 2009, the annual precipitation was 1729.01 mm. In this region, precipitation showed an increasing trend of 4.27 mm/a, but this was not statistically significant. In addition, the increase in rainfall was mainly concentrated in the period from April to October, including the entire monsoon period （from June to September） when precipitation accounts for about 78.9% of the annual total. （3） The influence of altitude on climate warming was not clear in the southern region, whereas the trend of climate warming was obvious on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma. The annual mean precipitation in the southern region was much higher than that of the northern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region. This shows the barrier effect of the Himalayas as a whole and Mt. Qomolangma in particular.     

Increases in fire risk due to warmer summer temperatures and wildland urban interface changes do not necessarily lead to more fires

Forest fire frequency in Mediterranean countries is expected to increase with land cover and climate changes as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns are altered. Although the cause of many Mediterranean fires remains poorly defined, most fires are of anthropogenic origin and are located in the wildland urban interface (WUI), so fire ignition risk depends on both weather and land cover characteristics. The objectives of this study were to quantify the overall trends in forest fire risk in the WUI of the Alpes-Maritimes department in SE France over a period of almost 50 years (about 1960–2009) and relate these to changes in land cover and temperature changes. Land cover for two contrasting reference catchments (236 km² and 289 km², respectively) was mapped from available aerial photographs. Changes in fire risk over time were estimated using statistical relationships defined for each type of WUI, where isolated and scattered housing present a greater risk than dense and very dense housing. Summer monthly temperatures and spring and summer precipitation were quantified over the same temporal period as land cover. Finally, trends in fire frequency and burned area were analyzed over a shorter 37 year period (1973–2009) due to the lack of available fire data before 1973. Fire risk associated with WUI expansion increased by about 18%–80% over the 1960–2009 period (depending on the catchment). Similarly, mean summer minimum and maximum monthly temperatures increased by 1.8 °C and 1.4 °C, respectively, over the same period. Summer rainfall appears to decrease over time since about the 1970's but remains highly variable. Land cover and weather changes both suggest an overall increase in fire risk. However, the number of fires and burned area have decreased significantly since about 1990. This paradoxical result is due to a change in fire-fighting strategy which reinforced the systematic extinction of fires in their early stages. Technical support in the form of improved radio communication and helicopters contributed greatly to reducing fire frequency and burned area. Surveillance and legal reforms included the introduction of field patrols and restricted access to forests during high risk periods. Although this has proven highly successful in the short term, the risk of fuel load accumulation over time remains a risk which might contribute to the development of mega-fires in extreme climatic conditions in the future.     

Impact of the shrinking winter wheat sown area on agricultural water consumption in the Hebei Plain简

This study firstly analyzed the shrinkage of winter wheat and the changes of crop- ping systems in the Hebei Plain from 1998 to 2010 based on the agricultural statistic data of 11 cities and meteorological data, including daily temperature, precipitation, water vapor, wind speed and minimum relative humidity data from 22 meteorological stations, and then calcu- lated the water deficit and irrigation water resources required by different cropping systems, as well as the irrigation water resources conserved as a result of cropping system changes, using crop coefficient method and every ten-day effective precipitation estimation method. The results are as follows. 1） The sown areas of winter wheat in the 11 cities in the Hebei Plain all shrunk during the study period. The shrinkage rate was 16.07% and the total shrinkage area amounted to 49.62×10^4 ha. The shrinkage was most serious in the Bei- jing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan agglomerate, with a shrinkage rate of 47.23%. 2） The precipitation fill rate of winter wheat was only 20%-30%, while those of spring maize and summer maize both exceeded 50%. The irrigation water resources demanded by the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping system ranged from 400 mm to 530 mm, while those demanded by the spring maize single cropping system ranged only from 160 mm to 210 ram. 3） The water resources conserved as a result of the winter wheat sown area shrinkage during the study period were about 15.96×10^8 m^3/a, accounting for 27.85% of those provided for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei by the first phase of the Mid-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.     

Influence of temperature variations during a cold period on the conditions of life of the population in East Siberia

On the territory of East Siberia, the positive deviations of mean monthly air temperatures from long-term annual mean air temperatures for the past 30 years (1981–2010) were caused by the shortening of the low-temperature periods. The largest decrease of the number of days with a daily mean temperature below ?25 °C is recorded in the southern and middle parts of the macroregion under conditions of a moderate, strong and very strong discomfort. On the other hand, the resulting range of variation in the number of days with a mean daily temperature below ?25 °C and the duration of the heating period remain within the long-term values. A slight rise in mean temperature for the heating period entails a marked reduction in degree-days.     

Classification of climates and climatic regionalization of the West-Siberian plain

We examine some issues related to a classification of climates. A climatic regionalization has been carried out, and a brief characteristic given to the identified types of climate. It has been found that the relationship of the sums of mean daily ground air temperatures above 10 °C and the dryness index show a clearly pronounced zonal distribution. The combination of sums of mean daily air temperatures below ?10 °C and the depth of snow in the northern part of the plain is characterized by a horizontal distribution, and only in the middle and southern parts of the plain do these indices acquire zonal regularities. An analysis is made of the long-term dynamics of air temperature to reveal that some climate warming during 1981–2010 was mainly caused by a rise in winter air temperature.     

An Early Pliocene lake and its surrounding vegetation in Zhejiang,East China

The palynomorph composition of an Early Pliocene assemblage from Du’ao Lake, Zhejiang Province, East China, including sporomorphs and algae, was analyzed to reconstruct the vegetation and climate around the lake, as well as the environmental conditions in the lake. A subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest surrounding the lake is inferred from the pollen data. The composition of the green algae community indicates a clear, shallow (about 5–6 m deep), mesotrophic freshwater lake. The inferred pH was about 7.0–8.0 during the algae growing season. Applying the Coexistence Approach, the climatic conditions in Early Pliocene Du’ao were: (1) mean annual temperature ranged from 18.1 to 22.0°C, (2) difference in temperature between the coldest and warmest months ranged from 14.2 to 15.1°C, (3) mean temperature of the coldest month varied from 10.7 to 12.1°C, (4) mean temperature of the warmest month ranged from 23.5 to 25.4°C, (5) mean annual precipitation varied from about 994 to 1,255 mm, (6) minimum monthly precipitation ranged from about 9 to 11 mm, and (7) maximum monthly precipitation varied from approximately 219 to 245 mm. These values indicate that the Early Pliocene climate was subtropical.     

基于Modis地表温度的青藏高原东部及其邻近地区气温估算(英文)

Climatic conditions are difficult to obtain in high mountain regions due to few meteorological stations and, if any, their poorly representative location designed for convenient operation. Fortunately, it has been shown that remote sensing data could be used to estimate near-surface air temperature (Ta) and other climatic conditions. This paper makes use of recorded meteorological data and MODIS data on land surface temperature (Ts) to estimate monthly mean air temperatures in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring areas. A total of 72 weather stations and 84 MODIS images for seven years (2001 to 2007) are used for analysis. Regression analysis and spatio-temporal analysis of monthly mean Ts vs. monthly mean Ta are carried out, showing that recorded Ta is closely related to MODIS Ts in the study region. The regression analysis of monthly mean Ts vs. Ta for every month of all stations shows that monthly mean Ts can be rather accurately used to estimate monthly mean Ta (R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.90 and standard error between 2.25℃ and 3.23℃). Thirdly, the retrieved monthly mean Ta for the whole study area varies between 1.62℃ (in January, the coldest month) and 17.29℃ (in July, the warmest month), and for the warm season (May-September), it is from 13.1℃ to 17.29℃. Finally, the elevation of isotherms is higher in the central mountain ranges than in the outer margins; the 0℃ isotherm occurs at elevation of about 4500±500 m in October, dropping to 3500±500 m in January, and ascending back to 4500±500 m in May next year. This clearly shows that MODIS Ts data combining with observed data could be used to rather accurately estimate air temperature in mountain regions.     

Latitudinal distribution of soil CO2 efflux and temperature along the Dalton Highway,Alaska

In this paper, we investigate spatial variations in soil CO₂ efflux and carbon dynamics across five sites located between 65.5°N and 69.0°N in tundra and boreal forest biomes of Alaska. Growing and winter mean CO₂ effluxes for the period 2006–2010 were 261 ± 124 (Coefficients of Variation: 48%) and 71 ± 42 (CV: 59%) gCO₂/m², respectively. This indicates that winter CO₂ efflux contributed 24% of the annual CO₂ efflux over the period of measurement. In tundra and boreal biomes, tussock is an important source of carbon efflux to the atmosphere, and contributes 3.4 times more than other vegetation types. To ensure that representativeness of soil CO₂ efflux was determined, 36 sample points were used at each site during the growing season, so that the experimental mean fell within ±20% of the full sample mean at 80% and 90% confidence levels. We found that soil CO₂ efflux was directly proportional to the seasonal mean soil temperature, but inversely proportional to the seasonal mean soil moisture level, rather than to the elevation-corrected July air temperature. This suggests that the seasonal mean soil temperature is the dominant control on the latitudinal distribution of soil CO₂ efflux in the high-latitude ecosystems of Alaska.     

A climatological study of the effect of sea-surface temperature on North Atlantic hurricane intensification

The climatic influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on intensification is examined for North Atlantic hurricanes by averaging hourly intensity increases from best-track data over the period 1986–2013 in 4° by 4° latitude–longitude grid cells. Independent monthly SST data over the same period are averaged in the same cells. After removing cells with cold water or fast moving hurricanes, the SST effect on intensification, at the climate scale, is quantified by regressing intensification onto SST while controlling for average intensity. The regression is performed using a generalized linear model from a gamma family and a logarithmic link function. The model shows a statistically significant relationship, with higher intensification values associated with higher SST values. On average, mean intensification increases by 16% [(9,?20)% uncertainty interval] for every 1 °C increase in mean SST. A clustered region where the model underpredicts intensification is noted over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, perhaps related to the fresh water plume from the Orinoco River.     

Recent air temperature changes in the permafrost landscapes of northeastern Eurasia

In the last two decades, climatic change has resulted in increased cryogenic activity in northeastern Eurasia, with adverse consequences for landscapes and socio-economic systems in the permafrost zone.The main purpose of this study was to assess the recent phases of warming, starting with Arctic warming. We performed a spatiotemporal analysis of climatic conditions during phases of maximum warming (i.e., 1935–1945, 1988–1995, and 2005–2009) in northeastern Eurasia and compared the magnitude of warming and its effect on permafrost among these critical periods. Our observations of permafrost landscape dynamics confirmed that the last two warming phases have played major roles in changing the environment.Data analysis has revealed regional patterns in the intensity of warming. Areas south of 60–62° latitude experienced no rise in air temperature during the Arctic warming period (1935–1945), whereas during 1988–1995, the center of warming shifted to the south of northeastern Eurasia. The last phase of warming (2005–2009) was characterized by maximum values of mean annual air temperature and the thawing index, and a decrease in the freezing index throughout northeastern Eurasia.     

北京城市热状况及热岛形成原因的探讨

本文利用1982—1985年期间在北京所设的城市气候站观测资料,讨论了城市热状况,指出城郊升降温速率的差异、城市建筑物的阻挡作用是形成城市热岛的原因之一。     

新疆博州地区近46年来的气候变化特征

根据新疆博尔塔拉蒙古自治州(简称博州,下同)四个气象代表站点的气温及降水资料,利用线性趋势函数及t检验法分析了该地区近46年的气候变化。结果表明,博州年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈上升趋势,而且平均最低气温上升的幅度远大于平均最高气温的上升幅度。年平均气温及年平均最低气温约在20世纪80年代中期出现了显著的均值突变,而年平均最高气温在80年代末出现突变;除春、夏季平均最高气温无明显变化趋势外,其它各季平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈上升趋势,其中均以冬季增幅最大,秋季次之;80年代冬夜升温最强劲,90年代则明显减弱;夏季的平均气温与平均最低气温均在70年代中期出现突变,比其它任何突变时间都早;暖温年多发生在80年代后,冷温年多发生在20世纪60年代、70年代。年降水量略呈上升趋势,少雨年多在60年代、70年代,多雨年多在近20年,除春季外,其余各季降水略有上升趋势。