适应极地快速变化海冰模式的研发与挑战

极地海冰是地球气候系统的重要组成部分,也是气候环境变化的指示器和放大器.极地海冰复杂的多尺度物理过程和极地观测资料的匮乏,给海冰模式的研发带来了巨大的挑战.在过去的半个多世纪中,大气-海冰-海洋的复杂相互作用和冰内物理过程在海冰模式中的数学描述取得了重大的进展,但海冰模式对一些重要物理过程的描述仍很不完善,尤其是近年来...     

Influences of Climate Change and Its Interannual Variability on Surface Energy Fluxes from 1948 to 2000

Understanding changes in land surface processes over the past several decades requires knowledge of trends and interannual variability in surface energy fluxes in response to climate change. In our study, the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), driven by the latest updated hybrid reanalysis-observational surface climate data from Princeton University, is used to obtain global distributions of surface energy fluxes during 1948 to 2000. Based on the climate data and simulation results, long-term trends and interannual variability (IAV) of both climatic variables and surface energy fluxes for this span of 50+ years are derived and analyzed. Regions with strong long-term trends and large IAV for both climatic variables and surface energy fluxes are identified. These analyses reveal seasonal variations in the spatial patterns of climate and surface fluxes; however, spatial patterns in trends and IAV for surface energy fluxes over the past ～50 years do not fully correspond to those for climatic variables, indicating complex responses of land surfaces to changes in the climatic forcings.     

Salinity minimum in the tropical Pacific

It is shown that the salinity minimum at subsurface depths of the tropical Pacific is a local phenomenon. Characteristics of the salinity minimum are relative by absolute values and variable in time. It appears and disappears in the intertropical convergence zone according to variability of the freshwater budget sign. The salinity minimum appears during the negative phase of the freshwater budget on the background of the previous freshening of the sea surface. The salinity minimum at intermediate depths in both hemispheres is a single phenomenon of climatic time scale. At present, it exists at intermediate layers in the arid zones of both hemispheres due to the negative phase of the freshwater budget. This minimum is related to the Earth climate system variability at the geological time scale. Differences in its properties in the Northern and Southern hemispheres reflect differences in the freshwater budget values and the duration of their influence at the geological time scale.     

Downscaling the non-stationary effect of climate forcing on local-scale dynamics: the importance of environmental filters

Large-scale climatic variability exerts a strong influence on local-scale environmental patterns and processes. However, disentangling the effects of global climate forcing from observed patterns in local processes requires robust understanding of the underlying patterns of temporal variability and consideration of the specific setting in which these processes take place. Here, we examine the influence of intermediate-scale environmental factors in modulating the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on long-term water level dynamics in natural lakes. Lakes are ideal systems to study these relationships because of their acute sensitivity to environmental change and their linkages with multi-scale processes through the hydrological cycle. Using a novel combination of analytical tools, we show that the coupling between the NAO and water level dynamics is markedly nonstationary (i.e., time-frequency variant) and strongly lake-specific, filtered through the particular weather and environmental settings of lakes and their catchments. We conclude that to fully understand the nonstationary interplay between climate and ecology, we need first to disentangle the intermediate links between climate and different embedded environmental factors related to the process of interest. This knowledge should enhance significantly our ability to produce adequate long-term water resource management strategies, to preserve biological diversity and to achieve sustainable development under a globally changing climate.     

ENSO-independent contemporaneous variations of anomalous circulations in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres: The polar-tropical seesaw mode

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the ENSO indices from the Climate Prediction Center over the period 1978–2014, we have investigated the contemporaneous circulation variations in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres by performing the singular value decomposition analysis of sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) after the ENSO signal is regressed out. It is found that there exists a polar-tropical seesaw mode (PTSM) that characterizes with the out of phase fluctuations of SLPA between the polar and tropical regions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in boreal winter. This PTSM explains 47.74% of the total covariance of SLPA and is almost independent of ENSO. It demonstrates a long-term trend and oscillation cycles of 2–3 and 4–6 yr. The long-term trend in PTSM indicates that the sea level pressure gradually decreases in the tropics and increases in the polar region with time. This PTSM looks roughly symmetric about the equator besides the seesaw pattern of SLPA between the tropics and polar region in each hemisphere. The disturbances in the geopotential height field in association with the PTSM shows baroclinic features in the tropics whereas equivalent barotropic features in the mid and high latitudes in the troposphere. The anomalous thermal forcing in the tropical region is possibly one of the factors facilitating the formation of this PTSM. Significant global precipitation and temperature anomalies related to the PTSM are observed. In the positive PTSM phase, precipitation and temperature are higher than normal in southern Europe and the Mediterranean and surrounding areas, but lower than normal in northern Europe and Siberia. Precipitation is higher than normal while temperature is lower than normal in Northeast Asia. Significant temperature and precipitation anomalies possibly occur in the regions of western China, northern India, parts of North America, parts of subtropical Africa, Maritime Continent, and Antarctic. These results are helpful for better understanding of the circulation variations and the mechanisms behind the interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and the related winter climate anomalies over globe.     

Climate warming and activity period extension in the Mediterranean snake Malpolon monspessulanus

Plants and animals are responding to climate warming with predictable changes in distribution and physiology. Ectothermic animals are dependent upon environmental temperature, and their seasonal activity patterns are constrained by temperature. Ectotherms (such as snakes) may alter their activity patterns in concordance with climatic change, and we tested this hypothesis in a Mediterranean region (SE Spain) with the Montpellier snake (Malpolon monspessulanus). Temperature showed an increasing trend of 0.07°C per year in the study area between 1983 and 2004, and activity period in this species increased in concert with annual mean temperature. These snakes had a wider dispersion in activity dates and the annual last record was delayed as years progressed, suggesting that the activity period for this snake has increased over time in response to climatic change. These results were not influenced by the elevation at which samples were taken, and annual variation in the number of snakes recorded, sex-ratio, or precipitation. Therefore, this study reports a definite phenological shift for a reptile in response to climatic change.     

The climatic impact of supervolcanic ash blankets

Supervolcanoes are large caldera systems that can expel vast quantities of ash, volcanic gases in a single eruption, far larger than any recorded in recent history. These super-eruptions have been suggested as possible catalysts for long-term climate change and may be responsible for bottlenecks in human and animal populations. Here, we consider the previously neglected climatic effects of a continent-sized ash deposit with a high albedo and show that a decadal climate forcing is expected. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) to simulate the effect of an ash blanket from Yellowstone volcano, USA, covering much of North America. Reflectivity measurements of dry volcanic ash show albedo values as high as snow, implying that the effects of an ash blanket would be severe. The modeling results indicate major disturbances to the climate, particularly to oscillatory patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Atmospheric disruptions would continue for decades after the eruption due to extended ash blanket longevity. The climatic response to an ash blanket is not significant enough to instigate a change to stadial periods at present day boundary conditions, though this is one of several impacts associated with a super-eruption which may induce long-term climatic change.     

The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: a partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments

Local sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic “water-hosing” experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, we find that geographic SE patterns should be challenging but possible to detect above dynamic variability. At higher melt rates, we find that DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects will dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds ~20 cm equivalent sea level.     

极地气象考察与全球变化研究

南极和北极是地球上的气候敏感地区，也是多个国际计划研究全球气候变化的关键地区。极地包含了大气、海洋、陆地、冰雪和生物等多圈层相互作用的全部过程，在全球气候的形成和变化中有重要的作用。极地大气科学考察与研究是极地科学研究的重要组成部分。到2006年底，中国自主组织了23次南极考察，2次北冰洋考察和3次北极站考察；建成了南极长城站、中山站和北极黄河站，并在南极冰盖设置了3个无人自动气象站；开展了有关极地大气科学与全球变化的研究。在南北极地区，进一步加强国际合作，继续监测包括近地面温度在内的大气要素的变化，提高极地气象业务水平；拓展极地气象业务和大气科学考察研究领域，积极获取气候代用资料；进一步量化和认识极地在全球变化中的作用，及其对中国天气气候和国民经济可持续发展的影响；建立完善极地大气科学研究体系，提高极地大气科学研究水平，仍是中国极地大气科学与全球变化研究的重要内容之一。     

Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints

Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulations. For the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago), the models are forced by changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters. The MH PMIP1 atmosphere-only simulations conducted with sea surface temperatures fixed to modern conditions show no MH consistent response for the poles, whereas the new PMIP2 coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models systematically simulate a significant MH warming both for Greenland (but smaller than ice-core based estimates) and Antarctica (consistent with the range of ice-core based range). In both PMIP1 and PMIP2, the MH annual mean changes in global temperature are negligible, consistent with the MH orbital forcing. The simulated last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) to pre-industrial change in global mean temperature ranges between 3 and 7°C in PMIP1 and PMIP2 model runs, similar to the range of temperature change expected from a quadrupling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the CMIP simulations. Both LGM and future climate simulations are associated with a polar amplification of climate change. The range of glacial polar amplification in Greenland is strongly dependent on the ice sheet elevation changes prescribed to the climate models. All PMIP2 simulations systematically underestimate the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Greenland temperature change, while some of the simulations do capture the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Antarctic temperature change. Uncertainties in the prescribed central ice cap elevation cannot account for the temperature change underestimation by climate models. The variety of climate model sensitivities enables the exploration of the relative changes in polar temperature with respect to changes in global temperatures. Simulated changes of polar temperatures are strongly related to changes in simulated global temperatures for both future and LGM climates, confirming that ice-core-based reconstructions provide quantitative insights on global climate changes. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Climatic timescale temperature and precipitation increases on long Island,New York

Abstract

Global warming due to increased greenhouse gases is believed to result in not only higher surface temperatures but also an acceleration of the hydrological cycle leading to increased precipitation. Although climate models consistently predict increases in global temperatures due to increasing greenhouse gases and the accompanying global warming, observations at the climatic timescales necessary to confirm the models are rare. Multidecadal studies at global and regional scales are necessary to determine whether the presently observed changes in temperature and precipitation are due to short‐term fluctuations or long‐term trends. In this study, we address this issue by examining changes in temperature and precipitation on Long Island, New York over a 74‐year time period (1931 to 2004) using a network of rain gauges and temperature measurements. The mean annual temperature on Long Island has increased at a rate of 0.05°C per decade, which is less than that of observed global values and is most likely due to the urban warming effects of New York City, not large‐scale climate change. The mean total annual precipitation has increased at a rate of 0.71 cm per decade during the study period, which is consistent with global observations. Intra‐annual temperature fluctuations are decreasing at a rate of 0.36% per decade, while precipitation variations are increasing at a rate of 0.91% per decade. Empirical orthogonal function analysis indicates that variations in temperature and precipitation on Long Island are dominated by island‐wide fluctuations that are directly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation.     

Climate impacts on coal, from resource assessments through to environmental remediation

This paper discusses the coal cycle from exploration through mining to end uses and environmental remediation, primarily from the perspective of elements in the cycle that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climatic change. The differences between resource estimates are noted. Coal transport by rail, barge, and ocean-going vessels are compared. The major end-use technologies are mentioned in the context of the coal value chain. Water availability is identified as a major uncertainty that could be further complicated by climate change. The major flows that are produced by down-stream cleanup of environmental emissions are discussed in terms of the movement of bulk solids. Typical impacts of temperature change, changes in precipitation, sea level rise, and decrease in sea ice in this cycle are summarized. Finally, while noting the negative impacts of climate changes in the Arctic, the opportunities that may arise from these are also discussed.     

IPCC SROCC的主要结论和启示

2019年9月,IPCC正式发布《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）,这是IPCC首次以高山地区与极区冰冻圈和海洋为主题的评估报告。报告全面评估气候变化背景下海洋和冰冻圈变化及其广泛影响与风险,其核心结论包括：气候系统变暖背景下高山地区和极区的冰冻圈普遍退缩,未来冰冻圈将继续消融,高山地区和极区将面临更高的灾害风险;20世纪70年代以来全球海洋持续增暖,未来海洋将继续变暖、加速酸化,影响海洋生物多样性并危及海洋生态系统服务功能和人类社会;近几十年全球平均海平面加速上升,未来数百年海平面仍将持续上升,极端海面事件频发将加剧沿海地区社会-生态系统的灾害风险。报告强调,采取及时、积极、协调和持久的适应与减缓行动,是有效应对海洋和冰冻圈变化,实现气候恢复力发展路径和可持续发展目标的关键所在。本研究认为,需要高度重视海洋和冰冻圈在气候系统变化中的长期和不可逆影响,强化应对气候变化紧迫性认识;高度重视我国冰冻圈和沿海地区面临的气候风险,强化适应能力建设;推动我国牵头的国际大科学计划,强化跨学科、跨领域协同创新,持续提升我国在相关领域的国际影响力和科技支撑能力。     

Support for global climate reorganization during the “Medieval Climate Anomaly”

Widely distributed proxy records indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~900–1350 AD) was characterized by coherent shifts in large-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. Although cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific can explain some aspects of medieval circulation changes, they are not sufficient to account for other notable features, including widespread aridity through the Eurasian sub-tropics, stronger winter westerlies across the North Atlantic and Western Europe, and shifts in monsoon rainfall patterns across Africa and South Asia. We present results from a full-physics coupled climate model showing that a slight warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans relative to the other tropical ocean basins can induce a broad range of the medieval circulation and climate changes indicated by proxy data, including many of those not explained by a cooler tropical Pacific alone. Important aspects of the results resemble those from previous simulations examining the climatic response to the rapid Indian Ocean warming during the late twentieth century, and to results from climate warming simulations—especially in indicating an expansion of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. Notably, the pattern of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change responsible for producing the proxy-model similarity in our results agrees well with MCA-LIA SST differences obtained in a recent proxy-based climate field reconstruction. Though much remains unclear, our results indicate that the MCA was characterized by an enhanced zonal Indo-Pacific SST gradient with resulting changes in Northern Hemisphere tropical and extra-tropical circulation patterns and hydroclimate regimes, linkages that may explain the coherent regional climate shifts indicated by proxy records from across the planet. The findings provide new perspectives on the nature and possible causes of the MCA—a remarkable, yet incompletely understood episode of Late Holocene climatic change.     

Future climate resources for tourism in Europe based on the daily Tourism Climatic Index

Climate is an important resource for many types of tourism. One of several metrics for the suitability of climate for sightseeing is Mieczkowski’s “Tourism Climatic Index” (TCI), which summarizes and combines seven climate variables. By means of the TCI, we analyse the present climate resources for tourism in Europe and projected changes under future climate change. We use daily data from five regional climate models and compare the reference period 1961–1990 to the A2 scenario in 2071–2100. A comparison of the TCI based on reanalysis data and model simulations for the reference period shows that current regional climate models capture the important climatic patterns. Currently, climate resources are best in Southern Europe and deteriorate with increasing latitude and altitude. With climate change the latitudinal band of favourable climate is projected to shift northward improving climate resources in Northern and Central Europe in most seasons. Southern Europe’s suitability for sightseeing tourism drops strikingly in the summer holiday months but is partially compensated by considerable improvements between October and April.     

The impact of potential abrupt climate changes on near-term policy choices

We investigate an important scientific uncertainty facing climate-change policymakers, namely, the impact of potential abrupt climatic change. We examine sequential decision strategies for abating climate change where near-term policies are viewed as the first of a series of decisions which adapt over the years to improving scientific information. We compare two illustrative near-term (1992–2002) policies - moderate and aggressive emission reductions - followed by a subsequent long-term policy chosen to limit global-mean temperature change to a specified ‘climate target’. We calculate the global-mean surface temperature change using a simple climate/ocean model and simple models of greenhouse-gas concentrations. We alter model parameters to examine the impact of abrupt changes in the sinks of carbon dioxide, the sources of methane, the circulation of the oceans, and the climate sensitivity, ΔT _2x. Although the abrupt changes increase the long-term costs of responding to climate change, they do not significantly affect the comparatively small cost difference between near-term strategies. Except for an abrupt increase in ΔT _2x, the investigated abrupt climate changes do not significantly alter the values of the climate target for which each near-term strategy is preferred. In contrast, innovations that reduce the cost of limiting greenhouse-gas emissions offer the potential for substantial abatement cost savings, regardless of which level of near-term abatement is selected.     

Inter-annual temperature and precipitation variations over the Litani Basin in response to atmospheric circulation patterns

This study examines the sensitivity of a mid-size basin’s temperature and precipitation response to different global and regional climate circulation patterns. The implication of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Monsoon and ten other teleconnection patterns of the Northern Hemisphere are investigated. A methodology to generate a basin-scale, long-term monthly surface temperature and precipitation time series has been established using different statistical tests. The Litani River Basin is the focus of this study. It is located in Lebanon, east of the Mediterranean Basin, which is known to have diverse geophysical and environmental characteristics. It was selected to explore the influence of the diverse physical and topographical features on its hydroclimatological response to global and regional climate patterns. We also examine the opportunity of conducting related studies in areas with limited long-term measured climate and/or hydrological data. Litani's monthly precipitation and temperature data have been collected and statistically extrapolated using remotely sensed data products from satellites and as well as in situ gauges. Correlations between 13 different teleconnection indices and the basin’s precipitation and temperature series are investigated. The study shows that some of the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation variance can be partially associated with many atmospheric circulation patterns. This would give the opportunity to relate the natural climate variability with the watershed’s hydroclimatology performance and thus differentiate it from other anthropogenic induced climate change outcomes.     

The absence of memory in the climatic forcing of glaciers

Glaciers respond to both long-term, persistent climate changes as well as the year-to-year variability that is inherent to a constant climate. Distinguishing between these two causes of length change is important for identifying the true climatic cause of past glacier fluctuations. A key step in addressing this is to determine the relative importance of year-to-year variability in climate relative to more persistent climate fluctuations. We address this question for European climate using several long-term observational records: a century-long, Europe-wide atmospheric gridded dataset; longer-term instrumental measurements of summertime temperature where available (up to 250 years); and seasonal and annual records of glacier mass balance (between 30 and 50 years). After linear detrending of the datasets, we find that throughout Europe persistence in both melt-season temperature and annual accumulation is generally indistinguishable from zero. The main exception is in Southern Europe where a degree of interannual persistence can be identified in summertime temperatures. On the basis of this analysis, we conclude that year-to-year variability dominates the natural climate forcing of glacier fluctuations on timescales up to a few centuries.     

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.