Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal

Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distribution of two threatened medicinal plants, Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium nepalense. The location of focal species gathered from herbarium specimen housed in different herbaria and online databases were geo-referenced and checked for spatial autocorrelation. The predictive environmental variables were selected, and MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distributions of focal species. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories of the BCC-CSM1.1 model were used as the future (2050) projection layer. The MaxEnt modelling delineated the potential distribution of F. cirrhosa and L. nepalense. The current suitability is projected towards Central and Eastern Hilly/Mountainous regions. Both species gain maximum suitability in RCP 4.5 which decline towards other trajectories for L. nepalense. Overall, both the focal species shift towards the north-west, losing their potential habitat in hilly and lower mountainous regions by 2050 across all trajectories. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on two threatened and valuable species. The results can be further useful to initiate farming of these medicinally and economically important species based on climatically suitable zone and for designing a germplasm conservation strategy.     

Vulnerability of Himalayan springs to climate change and anthropogenic impact: a review

The climate change and unsustainable anthropogenic modification can intensify the vulnerability of the Himalayas. Natural springs are the principal source of potable water security for the Himalayan population. The changes in the trend of precipitation, temperature and glacier melt are expected to impact the quantity and quality of spring water significantly. This review presents an insight to unravel the effects of climate change and land use land cover changes on the spring resources and outline the essential elements of spring hydrology in the Himalayas. The sensitive response of spring flow to the climate has been observed to follows an annual periodic pattern strongly dependent on snowmelt,rainfall, and evapotranspiration. Among all types,Karst aquifers were found to be highly vulnerable. The changes in the forest and urban landscapes are affecting the recharging sites in the headwater region.In the Central Himalayan region(Kosi River basin,Kumaun), the number of perennial springs is decreasing at a rate of three springs year-1, and nonperennial springs are increasing at the rate of one spring year-1. The high concentration of NO3-, Cl-1,SO42-, and coliform counts reported from the spring water evidence a high susceptibility of shallow aquifers to the non-point source of pollution. Future projections indicate high surface-runoff and occurrence of extreme events such as floods, glacial lake outbursts, and landslides can affect the flow and water quality of springs. As the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to increase with time remarkably, there is an urgent need to promote regional scientific studies on springs targeting hydrogeochemical evolution, vulnerability assessment, recharge area dynamics, and development of springshed management program.     

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION OF CHINESE AGRICULTURE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Globalclimatechangeanditspotentialinlliactsonhumanaffairshavebeenthesubjectofconsiderablediscussionwithintheaca相似文献   

Livelihood diversification as an adaptation approach to change in the pastoral Hindu-Kush Himalayan region

Migratory livestock raising has been one of the most important livelihood options for people residing in high mountain areas and has made a significant contribution to the economy of the Hindu Kush Himalayan（HKH） region, both in terms of supporting households and in export earnings. However, in recent decades, changes in the socioeconomic situation and increasing climate variability have led to a need to enhance adaptation by building the resilience of local socio-ecological systems, including economic diversification and sustainable management of natural resources. Based on semistructured interviews with pastoral communities in six countries within the pastoral HKH region, this paper discusses the situation, trends and driving forces behind the diversification of pastoral livelihood. For internal diversification the study highlights the need for enhancement of pastoral livelihoods through value-adding activities in the pastoral sectors. For external diversification changes on policy changes are needed to support free out-migration, market exploitation, and multiple resource use. Finally the paper highlights the role of education in determining household adaptation strategies in the face of various socio-ecological pressures and recommends integrating innovative and indigenous knowledge to develop appropriate methods for risk management and resource management in the pastoral HKH region.     

Local perceptions of climate change and adaptation needs in the Ifugao Rice Terraces (Northern Philippines)

The Ifugao Rice Terraces in the Philippines is recognized worldwide as a sustainable landscape where humans live in harmony with nature. The success of the Ifugao Rice Terraces largely depends on the attunement of local farmers to their environment and their ability to adapt to perceived changes, as manifested in their complex body of traditional ecological and climatic knowledge. This paper examines the local perceptions on climate change and other challenges to sustainability through focus group discussions with farmers and traditional knowledge holders. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (i) Ifugao farmers were able to observe climatic changes in recent years, and these changes were intimately linked with broader environmental and socio-cultural changes in the Ifugao social-ecological system; (ii) The climatic changes qualitatively observed by the farmers were in agreement with trends in datasets commonly used in scientific assessments, although this agreement depends on the spatial and temporal resolution of the dataset, and the type of statistical analysis performed, and; (iii) The Ifugaos stressed the importance of traditional knowledge and culture in climate change adaptation, and preferred measures which could increase internal adaptive capacity while addressing broader sources of community vulnerability. Our results support calls to recognize Indigenous and Western science as equally valid ways of knowing. Discussions with the farmers revealed that in the Ifugao context, climate change may be better framed in the context of multiple stressors on rural livelihoods, with adaptation integrated into broader development objectives. Our findings also emphasize the need for greater engagement of indigenous Ifugao people in planning processes in order to identify adaptation strategies that are culturally appropriate, equitable, and effective in responding to local needs.     

Review of studies on land use and land cover change in Nepal

Land use and land cover(LULC) in Nepal has undergone constant change over the past few decades due to major changes caused by anthropogenic and natural factors and their impacts on the national and regional environment and climate.This comprehensive review of past and present studies of land use and land cover change(LUCC) in Nepal concentrates on cropland, grassland, forest, snow/glacier cover and urban areas. While most small area studies have gathered data from different sources and research over a short period, across large areas most historical studies have been based on aerial photographs such as the Land Resource Mapping Project in 1986. The recent trend in studies in Nepal is to focus on new concepts and techniques to analyze LULC status on the basis of satellite imagery, with the help of geographic information system and remote sensing tools. Studies based on historical documents, and historical and recent spatial data on LULC, have clearly shown an increase in cropland areas in Nepal,and present results indicating different rates and magnitudes. A decrease in forest and snow/glacier coverage is reported in most studies. Little information is available on grassland and urban areas from past research. The unprecedented rate of urbanization in Nepal has led to significant urban land changes over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, long term historical LUCC research in Nepal is required for extensive work on spatially explicit reconstructions on the basis of historical and primary data collection, including LULC archives and drivers for future change.     

Evaluation of glacial resource potential for sustaining kuhl irrigation system under changing climate in the Himalayan region

A large numbers of mountain communities in the Himalayan region depend on glacier-fed kuhl system – gravity flow irrigation, for their sustenance. The depletion and retreat of glaciers often result in disruption of melt flows to kuhl system, which ultimately impacts the agriculture as well as livelihood of the local communities. Sustainability of glacial resource was assessed for establishing kuhl irrigation system based on indices of glacier decrease by number(GDN) and glacier depletion by volume(GDV) during the 2001-2013 period. The selected factors are important in terms of understanding point source and reserve potential of glaciers for sustaining glacier-fed kuhl irrigation in this region. The sustainability of glaciers was found good(i.e. a least decrease or rather increase in glacier number and volume) in about 23.6% glaciers(ice reserves about 705.9 km~3) under 10 km~2 area class of glaciers mainly in Gilgit and Shigar river basins of the Karakoram range. In the 5–10 km~2 class of glaciers, sustainability was good in 49 glaciers(ice reserve 26.59 km~3) and under 1–5 km~2 class, in 558 glaciers(ice reserve 60.189 km~3). Overall sustainability of glaciers appears to prevail in the Karakoram basins. The lesser sustainability of glaciers in the Himalaya basins like Astore and Jhelum would apparently be compensated by monsoon and change in rainfall pattern. A regular monitoring of the glacier resource and utilizing advance water conservation techniques would help in coping with negative impacts of downwasting of glaciers and provide long-term support to kuhl irrigation system in the Himalayan region in future.     

Empirical assessment of adaptation to climate change impacts of mountain households: development and application of an Adaptation Capability Index

The present study proposes an index to assess the potential for adaptation to climate change for households in the mountainous regions. The index provides a realistic approach to recognize social and natural factors which contribute to successful adaptation and addresses several household functions, such as social networking, livelihood strategy, adjustment strategies, resource availability and accessibility. The proposed Adaptation Capability Index (ACI) is analytically defined, mathematically formulated and field tested on mountainous households in urban and semi-urban regions of the Uttarakhand Himalaya in India. To gather data on the topic relevant to the ACI, a household scale questionnaire was developed and administered to 120 heads of households through face-to-face interviews. The results highlight higher adaptive capability of urban households and low adaptation capacity of rural households due to poor farm productivity, low accessibility and availability of resources and technological input. Future programs and policies must include and implement regulations to remedy attributive factors responsible for higher adaptation. This paper may be applicable to other mountainous regions and may provide insights for effective adaptation strategies to climate change.     

Identification and categorization of climate change risks

The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.     

Analyzing and forecasting climate change in Harbin City,Northeast China

Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85°C/10yr if emission concentration of CO₂ remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO₂ decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65°C/10yr, 0.46°C/10yr and 0.27°C/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.     

Changes in phytoplankton communities along nutrient gradients in Lake Taihu: evidence for nutrient reduction strategies

An annual investigation on phytoplankton communities was conducted to reveal the effects of nutrients on phytoplankton assemblages in Lake Taihu,East China. A total of 78 phytoplankton taxa were identified. Phytoplankton biomass was higher in the northern part of the lake than in the southern part. Cyanobacteria and Bacillariophyta alternated dominance in the northern area,where algal blooms often appear,and co-dominated in the southern area. In the northern part,the proportions of cyanobacteria and Bacillariophyta varied significantly in total biovolume,both along the phosphorus(P) gradient,and between total nitrogen levels(≤3 mg/L and 3 mg/L TN). The proportions of cyanobacteria and Bacillariophyta had no signif icant variations in total biovolume along P and N(nitrogen) gradients in the southern part. Correlation analysis and CCA results revealed that P was the key factor regulating phytoplankton community structure. Nitrogen was also important for the phytoplankton distribution pattern. It was concluded that nutrient structure was heterogeneous in space and shaped the distribution pattern of phytoplankton in the lake. Both exogenous P and internally sourced Prelease needs to be considered. N reduction should be considered simultaneously with P control to efficiently reduce eutrophication and algal blooms.     

The research of Polar sea ice and its role in climate change

As an important part of global climate system, the Polar sea ice is effccting on global climate changes through ocean surface radiation balance, mass balance, energy balance as well as the circulating of sea water temperature and salinity. Sea ice research has a centuries - old history. The many correlative sea ice projects were established through the extensive international cooperation during the period from the primary research of intensity and the boaring capacity of sea ice to the development of sea/ice/air coupled model. Based on these reseamhes, the sea ice variety was combined with the global climate change. All research about sea ice includes： the physical properties and processes of sea ice and its snow cover, the ecosystem of sea ice regions, sea ice and upper snow albedo, mass balance of sea ice regions, sea ice and climate coupled model. The simulation suggests that the both of the area and volume of polar sea ice would be reduced in next century. With the developing of the sea ice research, more scientific issues are mentioned. Such as the interaction between sea ice and the other factors of global climate system, the seasonal and regional distribution of polar sea ice thickness, polar sea ice boundary and area variety trends, the growth and melt as well as their influencing factors, the role of the polynya and the sea/air interactions. We should give the best solutions to all of the issues in future sea ice studying.     

A remote sensing based analysis of climate change in Sikkim supported by evidence from the field

The Himalayas hailed as the ‘water towers of the world' feed many perennial rivers which form the lifeline of the Indian sub-continent. Climate change induced rising global temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are currently threatening the glaciers that feed the rivers. The combination of these factors is causing water stresses to a part of the world which is usually considered water abundant. Though there are some large-scale studies done in the Himalayas, regional analysis of changing rainfall patterns and their impacts on vegetation and agriculture is lacking. Here we focus on the Indian state of Sikkim located in the Eastern Himalayas to evaluate these issues using mixed methods. We use satellite data from PERSIANN and MODIS to characterise the regional rainfall, vegetation, and surface temperature trends between 2001 and 2019. While the analysis shows overall declining rainfall trends across most land cover classes, the trends in temperature are mostly positive for the period of study, with winter Land Surface Temperature(LST) values showing the largest area with marginally significant(p0.1) positive trends. In contrast, such patterns are not observed for agriculture. However, the interviews corroborate that even agriculture is impacted, implying that the trends continue at finer spatial scales too. The lack of government support for adaptation and mitigation is also lamented placing the communities at a precarious position to continuing climate change.     

Soil degradation and food security coupled with global climate change in northeastern China

The northeastern China is an important commodity grain region in China,as well as a notable corn belt and major soybean producing area.It thus plays a significant role in the national food security system.However,large-scale land reclamation and non-optimum farming practices give rise to soil degradation in the region.This study analyzed the food security issues coupled with global climate change in the northeastern China during 1980–2000,which is the period of modern agriculture.The results of statistical data show that the arable land area shrank markedly in 1992,and then increased slowly,while food production generally continually increased.The stable grain yield was due to the increase of applied fertilizer and irrigated areas.Soil degradation in the northeastern China includes severe soil erosion,reduced soil nutrients,a thinner black soil layer,and deterioration of soil physical properties.The sustainable development of the northeastern China is influenced by natural-artificial binary disturbance factors which consist of meteorological conditions,climate changes,and terrain factors as well as soil physical and chemical properties.Interactions between the increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in the region led to reduced accumulation of soil organic matter,which results in poor soil fertility.Human-induced factors,such as large-scale land reclamation and non-optimum farming practices,unsuitable cultivation systems,dredging,road building,illegal land occupation,and extensive use of fertilizers and pesticides,have led to increasingly severe soil erosion and destruction.Solutions to several problems of soil degradation in this region requiring urgent settlement are proposed.A need for clear and systematic recognition and recording of land use changes,land degradation,food production and climate change conditions is suggested,which would provide a reference for food security studies in the northeastern China.     

Assessment of alpine summit flora in Kashmir Himalaya and its implications for long-term monitoring of climate change impacts

In an era of climate change,the availability of empirical data on alpine summit vegetation in the Himalaya is still scarce.Here we report the assessment of alpine summit flora in Gulmarg Wildlife Sanctuary,Kashmir Himalaya.We employed a globally standardized Multi-Summit Approach and four spatially isolated summits spanning an elevation gradient of 210 m(between 3530-3740 m a.s.l.) from natural treeline to nival zone were studied.Sampling of the summits was carried out in the year 2018 to collect floristic data together with records of soil temperature.A total of 142 vascular plant species were recorded in the sampled summits.Majority of the species were of herbaceous growth form and with perennial life span.Based on Raunkiaer's life form,hemicryptophytes were the most dominant followed by therophytes and phanerophytes.The summit flora showed the predominance of narrow-endemic species,with broad-and non-endemics declining with elevation.A significant relationship between growth form,Raunkiaer's life form,and the degree of endemism with elevation was observed.Both species diversity and soil temperature showed a monotonic decrease with increasing elevation.Interestingly,soil temperature clearly determined the magnitude of species diversity on the summits.Furthermore,based on floristic composition,the lowest summit had the highest dissimilarity with the rest of the summits.The present study employed globally standardized protocol to scientifically assess the patterns of plant diversity on the alpine mountain summits of Kashmir Himalaya,which in turn has wide implications towards long-term monitoring of climate change impact on alpine biodiversity in the rapidly warming Himalaya.     

Climate change and finger millet: Perception,trend and impact on yield in different ecological regions in Central Nepal

The views of local people on climate change along different ecological regions are relatively unexplored in Nepal. This study was conducted in 13 villages in central Nepal at different altitudes to document the views of small holder farmers and compare their perception with trends of climatic variables, finger millet yield, natural disasters, plant phenology(flowering and fruiting), status of forest and wild life, as well as the spread of diseases and pests. Analysis on the climatic data of stations for 36-41 years between 1975 and 2016 showed significant increases in the minimum temperature in lower tropical climatic region(500 m), upper tropical to subtropical climatic region(500-2000 m) and temperate climatic region(2000-3000 m) by 0.01, 0.026 and 0.054℃/year, respectively, and an increase of maximum temperature by 0.008, 0.018, and 0.019℃/year, respectively. Rainfall showed a strongly significant decreasing trend in all elevation regions. This result matches with the views of respondents except 38% respondent from temperate climatic region. People from the temperate climatic region also mentioned that current onset of snowfall is delayed but amount of snowfall remained the same. From the documented records, except events of wild fire, frequency of natural disasters events have increased in the recent years, which was in harmony with the views of local people. Multi-linear regression analysis showed that contribution of climatic variables on finger millet yield in lower tropical climatic region and upper tropical to subtropical regions was 23% and 57.3%, respectively, which was supported by increasing trend on average growing degree day(GDD) temperature at the rate of 0.01℃ in upper tropical to subtropical region and 0.007℃ in lower tropical climatic region yearly. Finger millet yield has been increasing at the rate of 7.39 and 36.9 kg/ha yearly in lower tropical climatic region and upper tropical to subtropical climatic region, respectively. This result provides deeper understanding of people's perception of causes and effects of climate change on diverse variables along different elevation and related magnitude which can contribute to policy making in Nepal.     

青藏高原植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响

利用1982-2001年美国国家航天航空局(NASA)的归一化植被指数(NDVI)资料以及55个青藏高原地区气象台站实测的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水资料,初步分析了青藏高原地区各季节植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响,通过分析发现,各季节青藏高原地区NDVI均以增长为主.特别是高原南部、北部和西部等地区增加明显,高原中东部地区植被有所减少.通过相关分析和台站概率相关分析发现,高原冬季和春季NDVI与后期春季和夏季的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水有较好的正相关关系,但有的表现在相关系数比较显著,有的表现为概率相关较明显.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation in southwest China

The topography and geomorphology of southwest China are complex, and the intensity of human activities not balanced. The impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation shows temporal and spatial differences. Therefore, we used normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)to analyze the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation in four provinces and municipality in the southwest China from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that(1) NDVI increased 0.004–...