Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in Hengduan Mountains, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1961–2008

Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values,and so have received much attention.In this study,twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation extremes at 32 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountains were examined for the period 1961-2008.The results reveal statistically significant increases in the temperature of the warmest and coldest nights and in the frequencies of extreme warm days and nights.Decreases of the diurnal temperature range and the numbers of frost days and ice days are statistically significant.Regional averages of growing season length also display the trends consistent and significant with warming.At a large proportion of the stations,patterns of temperature extremes are consistent with warming since 1961:warming trends in minimum temperature indices are greater than those relating to maximum temperature.As the center of the Shaluli Mountain,the warming magnitudes decrease from inner to outer.Changes in precipitation extremes is low:trends are difficult to detect against the larger inter-annual and decadal-scale variability of precipitation,and only the wet day precipitation and the regional trend in consecutive dry days are significant at the 0.05 level.It can be concluded that the variation of extreme precipitation events is not obvious in the Hengduan Mountains,however,the regional trends generally decrease from the south to the north.Overall,the spatial distribution of temporal changes of all extreme climate indices in the Hengduan Mountains illustrated here reflects the climatic complexity in mountainous regions.     

Trend in Observed and Projected Maximum and Minimum Temperature over N-W Himalayan Basin

Recently, study in past trends of climate variables gained significant consideration because of its contribution in adaptions and mitigation strategies for potential future changes in climate, primarily in the area of water resource management. Future interannual and inter-seasonal variations in maximum and minimum temperature may bring significant changes in hydrological systems and affect regional water resources. The present study has been performed to observe past(1970-2010) as well as future(2011-2100)spatial and temporal variability in temperature(maximum and minimum) over selected stations of Sutlej basin located in North-Western Himalayan region in India. The generation of future time series of temperature data at different stations is done using statistical downscaling technique. The nonparametric test methods, modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum chart are used for detecting monotonic trend and sequential shift in time series of maximum and minimum temperature. Sen’s slope estimator test is used to detect the magnitude of change over a period of time on annual and seasonal basis. The cooling experienced in annual TMax and TMin at Kasol in past(1970-2010) would be replaced by warming in future as increasing trends are detected in TMax during 2020 s and 2050 s and in TMin during 2020 s, 2050 s and 2080 s under A1 B and A2 scenarios. Similar results of warming are also predicted at Sunnifor annual TMin in future under both scenarios which witnessed cooling during 1970-2010. The rise in TMin at Rampur is predicted to be continued in future as increasing trends are obtained under both the scenarios. Seasonal trend analysis reveals large variability in trends of TMax and TMin over these stations for the future periods.     

Implications of climate change on streamflow of a snow-fed river system of the Northwest Himalaya

Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends (+0.11°C/decade) reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming (+0.7°C/decade) trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model (SRM) based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamflow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5% 40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.     

Dynamic Variability in Daily Temperature Extremes and Their Relationships with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation During 1960–2015 in Xinjiang,China

Climate changes are likely to increase the risk of numerous extreme weather events throughout the world. The objectives of this study were to investigate and analyze the temporal-spatial variability patterns of temperature extremes based on daily maximum(TX) and minimum temperature(TN) data collected from 49 meteorological stations in Xinjiang of China during 1960–2015. These temperature data were also used to assess the impacts of altitude on the temperature extremes. Additionally, possible teleconnections with the large-scale circulation pattern(the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, ENSO and Arctic Oscillation, AO) were investigated. Results showed that all percentile indices had trends consistent with warming in most parts of Xinjiang during 1960–2015, but the warming was more pronounced for indices derived from TN compared to those from TX. The minimum TN and maximum TX increased at rates of 0.16℃/10 yr and 0.59℃/10 yr, respectively during 1960–2015. Accordingly, the diurnal temperature range showed a significant decreasing trend of –0.23℃/10 yr for the whole study area. The frequency of the annual average of the warm events showed significant increasing trends while that of the cold events presented decreasing trends. Over the same period, the number of frost days showed a statistically significant decreasing trend of –3.37 d/10 yr. The number of the summer days and the growing season showed significant increasing trends at rates of 1.96 and 2.74 d/10 yr, respectively. The abrupt change year of each index was from the 1980 s to the 1990 s, showing that this periodic interval was a transitional phase between cold and warm climate change. Significant correlations of temperature extremes and elevation included the trends of tropical nights, growing season frequency, and cold spell duration indicator. This result also indicated the clear and complex local influence on climatic extremes. In addition, the relationship between each index of the temperature extremes with large-scale atmospheric circulation(ENSO and AO) demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on each index of the temperature extremes was greater than that of the AO in Xinjiang.     

Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin(Hindukush Region of Pakistan)between 2001 and 2018

Glaciers in the northern Pakistan are a distinctive source of freshwater for the irrigation,drinking and industrial water supplies of the people living in those regions and downstream. These glaciers are under a direct global warming impact as indicated in many previous studies. In this study, we estimated the glacier dynamics in terms of Equilibrium Line Altitude(ELA), mass balance and the snout position variation using remote sensing data between 2001 and 2018. Six glaciers, having area≥ 20 km2 each, situated in the Chitral region(Hindukush Mountains) were investigated in this study. Digital Elevation Model(DEM) and available cloud-free continuous series of Landsat and Sentinel satellite images from minimum snow cover season were used to monitor the variability in the studied glaciers by keeping the status of glaciers in year 2001 as a reference. The annual climatic trends of mean temperature and total precipitation from Chitral weather station were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall's test. Results revealed a general increase in the ELA, decrease in the glacier mass balance and the retreat of snout position.Average upward shift in the ELA for the entire study area and data period was ～345 ± 93 m at a rate of～13 m.a~(-1) from the reference year's position i.e.～4803 m asl. Estimated mean mass balance for the entire study area indicated a decline of-0.106 ± 0.295 m w.e. a~(-1). Periods of snout retreat and advance in different glaciers were found but the mean value over the entire study area was a retreat of-231 ± 140 m.No obvious relationship was found between the glacier variation trends and the available gauged climatic data possibly due to the presence of debris cover in ablation zones of all the studied glaciers which provides insulation and reduces the immediate climatic effects.     

Interdecadal oscillations of temperatures in 1903 - 2002 over the Antarctic Peninula

In the paper, by use of the monthly mean temperature data of 12 stations in the vicinity of Antarctic Peninsula, the temperature series during 1903 - 2000 is founded and the interdecadal oscillation of the temperature are discussed. The results indicate that 1） There are three jumps during 1919 - 1923, 1947 - 1953 and 1976 - 1982 in recent hundred years and the stable climate step between two jump points lasted about 30 years. 2） Annual mean temperature is increased by 0. 730℃ in an echelon during 1903 -2000, the warming extent is dissimilarity in each season, the maximum of warming is in the winter and the minimum of warming is in summer. 3） The ice decline trend is presented in the index of Ice concentration in the vicinity sea of Antarctic Peninsula, which shows a -0. 2053/10a drop, and the decrease trend of the ice concentration index in summer half year （Dee-May） is found much more obviously than that in winter half year （Jun-Nov）. 4） There is better negative relationship between the temperature and the Ice concentration index in Antarctic Peninsula and its vicinity sea, which correlation coefficient of is exceed the significance level of 5% in summer, autumn and annual.     

Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-lesund over the Arctic Tundra Area

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional ob-servation hourly data,this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-termclimate characteristics for an arctic tundra region(Ny-lesund island)where ourfirst arctic expedition station(Huanghe Station)was located.Affected by theNorth Atlantic warming current,this area has a humid temperate climate,andthe air temperature at Ny-lesund rose above 0℃ even during deep winter sea-son during our research period.The wind speed in this area was low and appearedmost at southeast direction.We find that the temperature at Ny-lesund rose inthe faster rate(0.68℃/10 a)than those at the whole Arctic area.Comparedwith the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic,Ny-lesundwas warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed.Comparison of the nearsurface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventionalmeasurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-lesund area shows a good a-greement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.     

Thermal recovery process of a backfilled open-pit in permafrost area at the Gulian strip coal mine in Northeast China

Timely and proper backfilling of open-pits in strip coal-mines has been an effective measurement for the recovery of the hydrothermal regimes and ecological environment in permafrost regions. In this study, numerical simulations and statistical regressions were applied for analyzing the recovery processes of the backfill and its major influencing factors for the thermal equilibrium in recently backfilled open pits at the Gulian strip coalmine in Mo'he, Northeast China. Results show that the thermal recovery time of backfilled areas is positively correlated to the backfill depth(BD) of the soils, the backfilled soil temperature(BST), and the mean annual ground surface temperature(MAGST); meanwhile, climate warming can impact on thermal regimes of the backfill area. The impact of climate warming on ground temperature of the backfill will show up significantly in about 50 years afterbackfilling(BD at 10.0 and 20.0 m, BST at 20.0°C) under the climate warming scenario(CWS) of 0.025°C·year ~(-1). Grey-relation analyses show that the sensitivity of the backfill recovery time declines in the order of the BD, BST and MAGST. On the basis of the abovementioned studies, the layer-by-layer backfilling in cold seasons is advised for more effective and more rapid recovery of thermal regimes of the backfilled open-pits in cold regions.     

Impact of climatic factors on vegetation dynamics in the upper Yangtze River basin in China

It is necessary to understand vegetation dynamics and their climatic controls for sustainable ecosystem management.This study examines the vegetation dynamics and the effect of climate change on vegetation growth in the pristine conditions of 58 woodland National Nature Reserves(NNRs)located in the upper Yangtze River basin(UYRB)in China which are little influenced by human activities.Changes in the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),precipitation,and temperature in the selected NNRs were observed and analyzed for the period between 1999 and 2015.The relationship between time-lag effect of climate and changes in the NDVI were assessed using Pearson correlations.The results showed three major trends.1)The NDVI increased during the study period;this indicates an increase in the amount of green vegetation,especially due to the warmer climate during the growing season.The NDVIs in March and September were significantly affected by the temperature of the previous months.Spring temperatures increased significantly(P<0.05)and there was a delay between climatic factors and their effect on vegetation,which depended on the previous season.In particular,the spring temperature had a delayed effect on the NDVI in summer.2)The way in which vegetation responds to climatic factors varied significantly across the seasons.Temperature had a greater effect on the NDVI in spring and summer and the effect was greater at higher altitudes.A similar trend was observed for precipitation,except for altitudes of 1000–2000 m.3)Temperature had a greater effect on the NDVI in spring and autumn at higher altitudes.The same trend was observed for precipitation in summer.These findings suggest that the vegetation found in NNRs in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was in good condition between 1999 and 2015 and that the growth and development of vegetation in the region has not been adversely affected by climate change.This demonstrates the effectiveness of nature reserves in protecting regional ecology and minimizing anthropogenic effects.     

Warming trend in northern East China Sea in recent four decades

Global warming has become a notable trend especially since an abrupt climate change in 1976. Response of the East China Sea (ECS) to the global warming trend, however, is not well understood because of sparse long-term observation. In this paper, hydrographic observation data of 1957–1996 are collected and reviewed to study climatological variability in northern ECS. Significant warming trends are found in both summer and winter. In summer, the average SST is about 0.46°C higher during the period of 1977-19...