Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.     

Regional landslide risk to the Cairns community

A GIS-based regional reconnaissance-level assessment of landslide risk to the Cairns community has been carried out to provide information to the Cairns City Council for planning and emergency management purposes. Magnitude recurrence relations were tentatively established for the two main slope processes: landslides on the hill slopes; and large debris flows extending out from the gully systems on to the plains. From the recurrence relations, landslide hazard (H) was estimated as the annual probability of a point being impacted by a landslide. The nature, number (E) and geographic distribution of the elements at risk were obtained by interrogating the GIS, and their vulnerabilities (V) to destruction by the two main landslide slope processes were assessed. From this information, specific risk (= H × V) and total risk (= H × V× E) maps were produced.Although total landslide risk is relatively low at present, it will increase as development extends further into the hill slopes, unless adequate mitigation measures are taken. Large debris flows, while considerably less frequent than landslides on cut slopes, could impact on subdivisions at the base of the slopes. Blockage by landslides of roads and railways providing access to Cairns can cause isolation of the community. Flash flooding in Freshwater Creek, or debris flows, have the potential to disrupt the Cairns water supply by blocking the intake or destroying sections of the pipeline.     

Treating the Risks in Cairns

Cairns is exposed to the well-known natural hazards oftropical cyclone, flood, stormsurge and thunderstorm, but is also exposed to thelesser-known hazards of landslip, earthquake and dam break flooding. Recommendations fortreating the risks associated with these hazards have been made that will involve amulti-disciplinary approach to treatment strategies, require the cooperation of allthree levels of government, involve public utility authorities and private enterprise andinvolve the community as a whole.This paper summarises the suggested mitigation treatmentoptions, presented to the Cairns City Council and identified in the LocalGovernment Disaster Mitigation Project conducted in Cairns in 1999/2000 by theQueensland Department of Emergency Services.     

Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.     

Coping with natural hazards and disasters in megacities: Perspectives on the Twenty-First Century

Changes in global urbanization and emerging patterns of disaster losses suggest that it may now be time to refocus the hazards research agenda on problems of very large cities. The resolution of urban disaster issues will require development of new collaborative strategies between victims, researchers, managers, policy makers and stakeholders in the hazards community and their counterparts in other urban interest groups. The experience of megacities in the United States and elsewhere that have been affected by recent major disasters and continuing hazards is examined to identify opportunities for initiating new policies and programs. Implications for hazard research and the concept of urban sustainability are noted.This paper is based on presentations to the International Symposium on Urban Growth and Natural Hazards, Universite Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand, France, December 2–3 and the annual conference of the Institute of British Geographers, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, 3–4 January, 1995. It also draws on material which is more fully reported in the forthcoming bookMegacity and Natural Disasters to be published by the United Nations University Press.     

Lightning fatalities in Australia, 1824–1991

Information on fatalities from lightning strikes has been extracted from a specially compiled database on natural hazards in Australia. Records dating from 1803–1991 indicate that at least 650 persons have been killed by lightning strikes. Maps and charts show the percentages of victims with respect to age, sex, locality, activity, and other circumstances of the strike. The majority of the 650 fatalities recorded have occurred along the more populous southeastern coast. The overall death rate, from 1910–1989, is 0.08 per 100 000 population. The annual number of lightning fatalities has decreased with time, from a death rate of 0.21 in 1910–1919 to 0.01 in 1980–1989. This trend is more pronounced when population figures are taken into account. The group that has been most at risk in Australia is that of males aged 15–19, followed by males aged 20–34. The male:female ratio of victims has decreased with time but is not approaching equality, being 11.6 in 1910–1919 and 5.3 in 1980–1989. The diurnal and monthly occurrences of lightning fatalities peak at 12.00–18.00 hours and November-February respectively. About 86% of fatalities have occurred outdoors and 14% have occurred indoors. Approximately three-fifths of fatalities have been work-related, and the group of workers that has traditionally been most at risk is that of land-workers. Approximately one-fifth of fatalities have been recreation-related, although this proportion has been increasing with time. The recreational activities of water sports, golf, and cricket have had the greatest number of lightning fatalities. Comparisons are made between these data and the results of other similar studies, both in Australia and overseas.     

Enhancing the capacities of natural hazard mitigation: a study on a typhoon curriculum module in high school earth science

This study is part of the hazards mitigation education program “research on teaching resources development and curriculum promotion on natural hazards mitigation at high school level.” This study demonstrated the implementation of a newly developed earth science curriculum module of typhoon hazards mitigation in a 10th grade high school classroom in Taiwan. The curriculum module design is a response to the calls for better natural hazards mitigation education in the school systems in Taiwan. Findings show that the curriculum module has resulted in the positive learning outcomes in both students’ learning achievement and attitude toward typhoon hazards mitigation. Findings also suggest that group discussion activities could enhance students’ thinking and experience sharing on the perceptions about typhoon hazards preparedness and mitigation. This study suggests that the hazards mitigation curriculum module to be added as a topic in the national high school curriculum guidelines.     

Air Quality as a Meteorological Hazard

Meteorological hazards are usually considered to be tropical cyclones, droughts, hail-storms, severe storms and their effects such as tsunamis, storm surges, wildfire, and floods. Urban air pollution is not normally considered to be a meteorological hazard. This view has arisen because the causes of urban air pollution – industrial and motor vehicleemissions – are not meteorological in nature. Air pollution episodes, however, are sporadic in nature and their occurrence depends on a particular combination of meteorological factors. This is true even in megacities such as Mexico City, Manila, and Los Angeles that have acquired a reputation for polluted air. Analyses of air pollution episodes and hospital admissions from many countries indicate that thereis a significant increase in morbidity and mortality as a result of such episodes.Time-series studies undertaken in Sydney have shown that particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen dioxide are the pollutants that are primarily responsible for adverse health effects in that city.Air pollution, and in particular particulate matter, is believed to be responsible for just under 400 premature deaths per year in Sydney alone. This death rate is over twenty times larger than deaths due to other meteorological hazards. Part of the reason for the low death rate for the more traditional meteorological hazards is that the provision of high quality numerical weather prediction, coupled with modern communications technology, has enabled emergency service personnel to take appropriate action.Air quality forecasting systems can play an important role in mitigating the adverse effects of air pollution. The forecasts will affect the behaviour of susceptible individuals, and thus reduce adverse health effects. The outputs from forecasting systems can also be used to provide improved estimates of the total exposure to air pollutants of the inhabitants who areat risk. Such improved estimates can then be used in conjunction with longitudinal studies ofhealth effects to obtain better understanding of the complex interaction between air quality and health.     

The Tropical Cyclone Risk in Cairns

Because of its location close to a region of tropical cyclone formation, the city ofCairns is regularly affected by tropical cyclones. Most cyclones occur in the monthsJanuary–March, although some have affected Cairns in December and April. There is a strong year-to-year variation in tropical cyclone numbers in the Cairns region, with twice as many impacts occurring during La Niña conditions than during El Niño. Several case studies are presented of cyclone impacts on Cairns. Rapidly developing cyclones are a particularly difficult forecast problem, as they can strike the city with less than 24 hours warning. Serious inundation from storm surge often occurs some time after landfall at Cairns.     

冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

系统回顾了国内外冰湖溃决灾害风险研究现状,结果显示,以往冰湖溃决灾害风险评估研究过多集中于冰湖溃决致灾诱因、特征,溃决危险性评价和溃决概率预测以及溃决洪峰流量及其演进模拟研究等自然风险方面,而承灾区经济社会系统脆弱性、暴露性和适应性风险研究却较为缺乏。因此,开展冰湖溃决灾害综合风险研究,不仅对冰湖溃决危险性评价意义重大,而且对于下游承灾区防灾减灾和预警体系建立也具有重要的理论参考价值。     

Kinematics, mechanics, and potential earthquake hazards for faults in Pottawatomie County, Kansas, USA

Many stable continental regions have subregions with poorly defined earthquake hazards. Analysis of minor structures (folds and faults) in these subregions can improve our understanding of the tectonics and earthquake hazards. Detailed structural mapping in Pottawatomie County has revealed a suite consisting of two uplifted blocks aligned along a northeast trend and surrounded by faults. The first uplift is located southwest of the second. The northwest and southeast sides of these uplifts are bounded by northeast-trending right-lateral faults. To the east, both uplifts are bounded by north-trending reverse faults, and the first uplift is bounded by a north-trending high-angle fault to the west. The structural suite occurs above a basement fault that is part of a series of north–northeast-trending faults that delineate the Humboldt Fault Zone of eastern Kansas, an integral part of the Midcontinent Rift System. The favored kinematic model is a contractional stepover (push-up) between echelon strike-slip faults. Mechanical modeling using the boundary element method supports the interpretation of the uplifts as contractional stepovers and indicates that an approximately east–northeast maximum compressive stress trajectory is responsible for the formation of the structural suite. This stress trajectory suggests potential activity during the Laramide Orogeny, which agrees with the age of kimberlite emplacement in adjacent Riley County. The current stress field in Kansas has a N85°W maximum compressive stress trajectory that could potentially produce earthquakes along the basement faults. Several epicenters of seismic events (<M2.0) are located within 10 km of the structural suite. One epicenter is coincident with the northwest boundary of the uplift. This structural suite, a contractional stepover between echelon northeast-trending right-lateral faults, is similar to that mapped in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and both areas currently feature roughly east–west maximum compressive stress trajectory. Based on these similarities, the faults in Pottawatomie County have the potential for seismicity. The results demonstrate that mechanical analysis of minor structural features can improve our knowledge of local earthquake hazards.     

Climate change and journalistic norms: A case-study of US mass-media coverage

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – comprised of top climate scientists from around the globe – has reached consensus that human activities have contributed significantly to global climate change. However, over time, the United States has refused to join concerted international efforts – such as the Kyoto Protocol – to curb human activities contributing to climate change. US newspaper and television media constitute key influences among a set of complex dynamics shaping information dissemination in this politicized environment. Mass-media coverage of climate change is not simply a random amalgam of newspaper articles and television segments; rather, it is a social relationship between scientists, policy actors and the public that is mediated by such news packages. This paper demonstrates that consistent adherence to interacting journalistic norms has contributed to impediments in the coverage of anthropogenic climate change science. Through analysis of US newspaper and television coverage of human contributions to climate change from 1988 through 2004, this paper finds that adherence to first-order journalistic norms – personalization, dramatization, and novelty – significantly influence the employment of second-order norms – authority-order and balance – and that this has led to informationally deficient mass-media coverage of this crucial issue. By critically scrutinizing US print and television media as a ‘public arena,’ we improve understanding of how journalistic activities have shaped interactions at the interface with climate science, policy and the public.     

Assessing the past thermal and chemical history of fluids in crystalline rock by combining fluid inclusion and isotopic investigations of fracture calcite

Fluid inclusion studies combined with the isotope geochemistry of several generations of fracture calcite from the Olkiluoto research site, Finland, has been used to better understand the past thermal and fluid history in the crystalline rock environment. Typically, fracture mineral investigations use O and C isotopes from calcite and an estimate of the isotopic composition of the water that precipitated the calcite to perform δ¹⁸O geothermometry calculations to estimate past temperature conditions. By combining fluid inclusion information with calcite isotopes, one can directly measure the temperature at which the calcite formed and can better determine past fluid compositions. Isotopic, petrologic and fluid inclusion studies at the Olkiluoto research site in Finland were undertaken as part of an investigation within the Finnish nuclear waste disposal program. The study revealed that four fluids were recorded by fracture calcites. From petrologic evidence, the first fluid precipitated crystalline calcite at 151–225°C with a δ¹³C signature of −21 to −13.9‰ PDB and a δ¹⁸O signature of 12.3–13.0‰ SMOW. These closed fracture fillings were found at depths greater than 500 m and were formed from a high temperature, low salinity, Na–Cl fluid of possible meteoric water altered by exchange with wallrock or dilute basinal origin. The next fluid precipitated crystalline calcite with clay at 92–210°C with a δ¹³C signature of −2.6 to +3.8‰ PDB and a δ¹⁸O signature of 19.4–20.7‰ SMOW. These closed fracture fillings were found at depths less than 500 m and were formed from a moderate to high temperature, low to moderate salinity, Na–Cl fluid, likely of magmatic origin. The last group of calcites to form, record the presence of two distinct fluid types. The platy (a) calcite formed at 95–238°C with a δ¹³C signature of −12.2 to −3.8‰ PDB and a δ¹⁸O signature of 14.9–19.6‰ SMOW, from a high temperature, low salinity, Na–Cl fluid of possible magmatic origin. The platy (b) calcite formed at 67–98°C with a δ¹³C signature of −13.0 to −6.2‰ PDB and a δ¹⁸O signature of 15.1–20.1‰ SMOW, from a low temperature, high salinity, Ca–Na–Cl fluid of possible basinal brine origin. The two calcites are related through a mixing between the two end members. The source of the fluids for the platy grey (a) calcites could be the olivine diabase dykes and sills that cut through the site. The source of fluids for the platy (b) calcites could be the Jotnian arkosic sandstone formations in the northern part of the site. At the Olkiluoto site, δ¹⁸O geothermometry does not agree with fluid inclusion data. The original source of the water that forms the calcite has the largest effect on the isotopic signature of the calcites formed. Large isotopic shifts are seen in any water by mineral precipitation during cooling under rock–water equilibrium fractionation conditions. Different calcite isotopic signatures are produced depending on whether cooling occurred in an open or closed system. Water–rock interaction, at varying W/R ratios, between a water and a host rock can explain the isotopic shifts in many of the calcites observed. In some cases it is possible to shift the δ¹⁸O of the water by +11.5‰ (SMOW) using a realistic water–rock ratio. This process still does not explain some of the very positive δ¹⁸O values calculated using fluid inclusion data. Several other processes, such as low temperature recrystallization, boiling, kinetic effects and dissolution of calcite from fluid inclusion walls can affect isotopic signatures to varying degrees. The discrepancy between fluid inclusion data and δ¹⁸O geothermometry at the Olkiluoto site was most likely due to poor constraint on the original source of the water.     

Tidal Changes and Coastal Hazards: Past,Present and Future

A review is presented of the nature of tidal changes and their importance in the context of coastal hazards. This is done in order to illustrate the way in which tides do and may impact on the coast as a hazard and highlight the need for research to be carried out in this context. Three main aspects of tides are significant in this respect – these are: (1) tidal heights, including tidal range and the asymmetry or otherwise of the flood/ebb cycle; (2) tidal currents, the speed and direction of which affect sediment movement, sources and sinks; and (3) tidal mixing of fresh water with water of varying levels of salinity and differing temperatures. A variety of tools, from geological data to modelling, and tide gauges to satellites, may be used to assess tidal changes. Tides form the basis on which all other coastal processes operate and are therefore important with regard to the physical, chemical and biological hazards in the coastal zone. There is an urgent need to study tidal changes – both their nature and causes – in order to ensure successful coastal management.     

(Re-)negotiating access: The politics of researching skills and knowledge for ‘sustainable communities’

The last decade has witnessed a surge of interest in ‘sustainable communities’ within the UK. This has stimulated a plethora of research aimed at acquiring a better understanding of what ‘sustainable communities’ might look like and how they can be achieved. However, this has not been accompanied by a reflection and interrogation of the actual processes, challenges and politics of doing ‘sustainable communities’ research. This paper addresses this gap by highlighting the importance of paying attention to the on-going process of negotiating access when carrying out sustainability research at the community level. We draw on a recent study of skills and knowledge for ‘sustainable communities’ in Stroud Gloucestershire, UK, to illustrate the importance of sensitivity to social relationships throughout and beyond the research trajectory within sustainability research. Our experience raises important questions about the politics of research practices when doing sustainability research ‘with’ communities and the challenges associated with participatory approaches as a means to demonstrate research impact. We argue that in developing a fuller understanding of why and how different types of community level initiatives can contribute to the ‘sustainable communities’ agenda, greater consideration needs to be given to how these community practices can be better supported through the process of doing academic research.     

Activity-specificity in organizational learning: implications for analysing the role of proximity

By the late 1990s, learning became a key notion in explaining successful regional economic development outcomes. One of the key (implicit or explicit) assumptions in these explanations tends to be that regional – i.e., proximate – relations are most conducive for collective interactive learning. In consequence, accounting for the significance of spatial proximity appears to be at the heart of explaining learning and the creation of competitiveness at the level of regions as well as the firms that they host. A general claim about the role of proximity in learning seems too vague, however. This paper suggests that the significance of proximate relations for learning needs to be unveiled in the case of the various activities carried out in firms. Firms are depicted as utilising activity-specific resources in carrying out their various functions. While other factors obviously also influence processes of learning – such as sector, product and market strategies, type of organization, etc. – this paper puts its main focus on elaborating on the significance of understanding various organizational activities. It aims at pointing out that learning is likely to take place in all of them, regardless of whether proximate or more distant relations are involved. This is believed to provide one step further in an attempt to understand the difference that space makes in organizational learning.     

汶川震区银厂沟区域818暴雨泥石流灾害成灾机理与特征

2012年8月18日汶川震区的银厂沟区域暴发群发性泥石流,造成人员伤亡,公路、房屋等基础设施严重受损。这场泥石流灾害发生在汶川地震极震区内,是地震与强降雨共同作用下的结果,因此研究其成灾机制和灾害特征对于进一步认识强震区泥石流活动具有重要意义。本研究采用地面调查和遥感解译方法,分析银厂沟区域泥石流形成条件的变化。研究结果表明强震条件下崩塌、滑坡等产生的松散固体物质,是泥石流活动的物质基础; 沟道受松散岩土体堵塞,有利于泥石流规模放大; 快速激发型的雨量特征为泥石流暴发提供了动力。在此基础上讨论了泥石流起动、运动和堆积过程,总结了泥石流活动特征,发现泥石流沿发震断裂呈带状分布,成因组合上属于降雨控制型,尚处于青年期,且在成灾模式上满足致承耦合效应。     

Deformation features within an active normal fault zone in carbonate rocks: The Gubbio fault (Central Apennines, Italy)

The Gubbio fault is an active normal fault defined by an important morphological scarp and normal fault focal mechanism solutions. This fault truncates the inherited Miocene Gubbio anticline and juxtaposes Mesozoic limestones in the footwall against Quaternary lacustrine deposits in the hanging wall. The offset is more than 2000 m of geological throw accumulated during a poly-phased history, as suggested by previous works, and has generated a complex zone of carbonate-rich fault-related structures. We report the results of a multidisciplinary study that integrates detailed outcrop and petrographic analysis of two well-exposed areas along the Gubbio fault zone, geochemical analysis (fluid inclusions, stable isotopes, and trace elements) of calcite-sealed fault-related structures and fault rocks, and biostratigraphic controls. Our aims are: (i) the characterization of the deformation features and their spatial–temporal relationships, and (ii) the determination of the P/T conditions and the fluid behaviour during deformation to achieve a better understanding of fluid–rock interaction in fault zones.We show that few of the observed structures can be attributed to an inherited shortening phase while the most abundant structures and fault rocks are related to extensional tectonics. The outcropping extensional patterns formed at depths less than 2.5–3 km, in a confined fluid system isolated from meteoric water, and the fault structures are the response to a small amount of cumulated displacement, 12–19% of the total geological throw.     

Understanding the vulnerability of migrants in Shanghai to typhoons

China has experienced considerable migration from inland to coastal areas since the reforms of 1978, with migrants becoming an important population in many coastal cities. Compared with non-migrants (long-term residents), migrant vulnerability to typhoons is considered high due to limited access to job opportunities, social security, information, and other resources; however, there is no research on vulnerability of this population sector to natural hazards. This initial study analysed the perceptions and personal experiences of migrants living in Shanghai of typhoon hazards. During May 2010, empirical data were collected using an online questionnaire and face–face interviews. Response data indicated that risk knowledge of migrants was significantly lower than among non- migrants; differing risk perceptions between the groups were consistent with levels of personal typhoon experience; statistically significant differences in hazard knowledge within the sample also related to education and occupation; a variety of strategies to cope with typhoon hazards was being applied by residential committees; and that migrants were not generally recognised as a vulnerable group requiring special consideration in hazard risk management. To reduce the vulnerability of migrants to typhoons, we recommend expanding the range of accessible communication technologies distributing warning information; organising more educational and training programmes, at government and corporate level, to increase community awareness of natural hazards; encouraging local residential committees to promote social networks and engagement for migrants; and providing corporate incentives to develop insurances specifically for migrant needs. Further research is necessary to assess the differences in vulnerability between different types of migrants.     

The production of unequal risk in hazardscapes: An explanatory frame applied to disaster at the US–Mexico border

This paper advances understanding of how unequal risks to environmental hazards are generated. Marginalization is the best known explanation for the production of risk. The concept of marginalization was elaborated through studies of hazards in the global South and connotes how social inequalities constrain livelihood options of less powerful social groups. Thus, marginal groups are pressured to degrade landscapes and occupy hazardous environments while they experience decreased capacities to cope with environmental change. This paper directs analytical attention beyond the material to include the discursive realm and demonstrates that the production of unequal risk is contingent upon how hazards are differentially perceived, represented, and contested in social spaces. Findings from a flood disaster case study in the El Paso (US)–Ciudad Juárez (Mexico) border metropolis highlight how hegemonic discourses reinforce material processes of marginalization in flood-prone social spaces. Findings also reveal how socially-powerful geographical groups of people have harnessed institutional resources in their efforts to externalize risks and capitalize on environmental opportunities in some flood-prone areas. The concept of facilitation is used to explain the material-discursive production of socially-elite, flood-prone spaces. Facilitation clarifies how powerful groups are provided privileged access to institutional resources in their pursuit of environmental rewards, contributing to unjust socioenvironmental outcomes. In conclusion, I outline key aspects of how unequal risks are materially and discursively (re)produced within hazardscapes through relational processes of marginalization/facilitation.