Statistical tests of recent plate tectonic units by using geodetic data

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On the geometry of convergent plate boundaries

Previous studies of plate dynamics suggest that, at consuming plate boundaries, driving forces (negative buoyancy) acting on the slab are counterbalanced by viscous forces, proportional to the consumption velocity and resisting the downgoing motion into the mantle. New observations on the geometry of subduction zones may help test this equilibrium theory. A condition for local equilibrium of the driving and resistive forces is that the consumption velocity (V_⊥) remains constant along a given trench. From this condition, a geometrical property of the shape of trenches and island arcs on the sphere is inferred: the consuming margin of two plates should follow segments of helices about the axis of rotation of their relative motion. A comparison of the shape of island arcs and trenches with helices supports this inference.     

The modern geoid and ancient plate boundaries

The non-hydrostatic geoid is dominated by three large anomalies: an area of high gravity potential in the equatorial Pacific; another stretching from Greenland through Africa to the southwest Indian Ocean; and a semi-continuous low region passing from Hudson's Bay through Siberia to India and on to Antarctica. None of these three high-amplitude (greater than 60 m) and long-wavelength anomalies corresponds to present-day plate boundaries. However, if the modern geoid is plotted over the positions of continents and plate boundaries at 125 Ma B.P. (reconstructed relative to hotspots) a strong correlation emerges. The modern geoidal low corresponds in position to the areas of subduction surrounding the Pacific 125 Ma ago. The geoidal high now centered on Africa is entirely contained within ancient Pangaea, and the equatorial Pacific high overlies the location of the spreading centers preserved in the magnetic anomalies of the central Pacific. The most plausible cause of the large geoidal undulations is lower mantle convection only weakly coupled to plate motions. The correspondence between modern geoid and ancient plate boundaries implies either that the coupling was much more intimate in the past, or that there is a lag of at least 100 Ma in response of the lower mantle to upper mantle conditions.     

Slip partitioning along major convergent plate boundaries

Along plate boundaries characterized by oblique convergence, earthquake slip vectors are commonly rotated toward the normal of the trench with respect to predicted plate motion vectors. Consequently, relative plate motion along such convergent margins must be partitioned between displacements along the thrust plate interface and deformation within the forearc and back-arc regions. The deformation behind the trench may take the form of strike-slip motion, back-arc extension, or some combination of both. We observe from our analysis of the Harvard Moment Tensor Catalog that convergent arcs characterized by back-arc spreading, specifically the Marianas and New Hebrides, are characterized by a large degree of slip partitioning. However, the observed rates, directions, and location of back-arc spreading are not sufficient to account for degree of partitioning observed along the respective arcs, implying that the oblique component of subduction is also accommodated in part by shearing of the overriding plate. In the case of the Sumatran arc, where partitioning is accommodated by strike-slip faulting in the overriding plate, the degree of partitioning is similar to that observed along the Marianas, but the result is viewed with caution because it is based on a predicted plate motion vector that is based on locally derived earthquake slip vectors. In the case of the Alaskan-Aleutian arc, where back-arc spreading is also absent, the degree of partitioning is less and rotation of slip vectors toward the trench normal appears to increase linearly as a function of the obliquity of convergence. If partitioning in the Alaskan-Aleutian arc is accommodated by strike-slip faulting within the upper plate, the positive relationship between obliquity of convergence and the rotation of earthquake slip vectors to the trench normal may reflect that either (1) the ratio of the depth extent of strike-slip faults behind the trenchZ _s to the subduction thrustZ _t increases westward along the arc, (2) the dip of the subduction thrust increases westward along the arc, or (3) the strength of the subduction thrust decreases westward along the arc.     

板块运动与地震各向异性及应力场的相关性统计分析

利用收集到的各种来源共计7 959组的地震各向异性观测数据和21 750组应力场数据,结合板块绝对运动模型计算给出的各板块的运动规律,分别统计分析了板块运动与地震各向异性及应力场的相关性,并对板块运动对地震各向异性及应力场特征产生的影响进行了分析． 统计结果表明,阿拉伯、 加勒比、 胡安德富卡、 北美、 纳兹卡、 太平洋和南美板块上地震各向异性与板块运动均具有较好的相关性,而非洲、 南极洲、 澳大利亚、 欧亚、 印度和菲律宾板块上二者的相关性则相对较差. 讨论分析发现,板块运动拖动软流圈流动、 橄榄岩晶格优选方位、 化石各向异性和地幔流动或岩石圈流动等因素均在一定程度上控制并影响着地震各向异性与板块运动的一致性． 而板块基底拖曳力、 洋脊推力、 浮力作用和碰撞及俯冲作用等多种因素共同制约了板块运动与应力场的相关性,使得非洲、 可可斯、 欧亚、 胡安德富卡、 北美、 纳兹卡、 菲律宾和南美板块上二者的相关性较好,其它板块上其相关性则较差． 对于俯冲带地区,由于俯冲机制的复杂性和软流圈、 岩石圈地幔流动方向的不确定性,其板块运动与地震各向异性及应力场的相关性图像表现复杂,需要结合具体的俯冲带构造进行近一步研究．     

Glacial isostasy and plate motion

The influence of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) on the motion of tectonic plates is usually neglected. Employing a recently developed numerical approach, we examine the effect of glacial loading on the motion of the Earth’s tectonic plates where we consider an elastic lithosphere of laterally variable strength and the plates losely connected by low viscous zones. The aim of this paper is to elucidate the physical processes which control the GIA-induced horizontal motion and to assess the impact of finite plate-boundary zones. We show that the present-day motion of tectonic plates induced by GIA is at, or above, the order of accuracy of the plate motions determined by very precise GPS observations. Therefore, its contribution should be considered when interpreting the mechanism controlling plate motion.     

Glacial isostasy and plate motion

The influence of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) on the motion of tectonic plates is usually neglected. Employing a recently developed numerical approach, we examine the effect of glacial loading on the motion of the Earth’s tectonic plates where we consider an elastic lithosphere of laterally variable strength and the plates losely connected by low viscous zones. The aim of this paper is to elucidate the physical processes which control the GIA-induced horizontal motion and to assess the impact of finite plate-boundary zones. We show that the present-day motion of tectonic plates induced by GIA is at, or above, the order of accuracy of the plate motions determined by very precise GPS observations. Therefore, its contribution should be considered when interpreting the mechanism controlling plate motion.     

Recent geodynamic evolution of convergent plate margins and the reconstruction of fossil plate boundaries

Summary The discovery of paleoplates buried in the upper mantle leads to an interpretation of the subduction as a discontinuous process running in cycles and shifting the place of its operation in or against the direction of ocean floor spreading. This mechanism explains the distribution of calc-alkaline volcanism of different age in fossil convergent plate boundaries. The establishment of regular spatial correlation of the aseismic gap in the Wadati-Benioff zones with the distribution of calc-alkaline volcanism enables to reconstruct fossil plate boundaries and to define allochtonous terranes in apparently homogeneous continental plates. The hampering effect of the ocean floor morphology and of the fragments of continental plates approaching the trench, which substantially influences the rates of subduction and the geodynamic history of active continental margins in different domains along the trench, allows us to understand the complicated geological development of continental wedges in fossil convergent plate margins. The establishment of the segmented nature of active subduction zones and the dramatic morphology of the lower limit of the active subducted slab along the trench help us to interpret extensive lateral gaps in volcanic chains overlying active as well as fossil subduction zones.     

Migration of a pattern of plate motion

A pattern of plate motion is documented to have migrated from the South Pacific into the Indian Ocean during the Cretaceous and Early Tertiary, and then across the Indian Ocean during the Tertiary. The opening of the Gulf of Aden may be a more recent extension of this migration. The migration takes place by the episodic formation of new segments of sea-floor spreading having the new direction of plate motion; or by development of the new direction of motion in segments where sea-floor spreading had previously been active. In this manner plate motions can extend beyond their previously limiting plate boundaries.     

Statistical significance of modal parameters of bridge systems identified from strong motion data

Modal parameters of structural systems have commonly been determined using system identification (SI) methods for damage detection and health monitoring. For determining the deterioration of the integrity of structural systems correctly, modal parameters of a healthy structure have to be obtained with adequate certainty so that these parameters can be used as reliable references for the healthy system to compare with those of the damaged system. In this study, the statistical significance of modal parameters identified using strong motion time histories recorded on two bridge structures is assessed. The confidence intervals of identified modal frequencies and damping ratios are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analyses in conjunction with eigenrealization algorithm. The dependence of the statistical bounds on model parameters is examined. The effect of using different number of sensors on the statistical significance is evaluated using simulated time history data from a validated finite element model of a bridge. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adakitic rocks at convergent plate boundaries: Compositions and petrogenesis

Science China Earth Sciences - Adakitic rocks are intermediate-acid magmatic rocks characterized by enrichment in light rare-earth elements, depletion in heavy rare-earth elements, positive to...     

Statistical tests for regional seismic phase characterizations

In seismic analysis some assumptions are often made aboutthe data, e.g. stationarity and Gaussianity. This is not obvious for all realseismic data. Here, we use statistical tests for characterization of regionalseismic data. We apply tests for stationarity, symmetry, linearity, andtime-reversibility. In the analysis we use twelve regional seismic events inFennoscandia recorded with the seismic small-aperture arrays NORESS,ARCESS and FINESA at hypocentral distances in the range from 160 to1580 km. For the tests we use the regional phases Pn, secondary P, Sn and Lg-phases and the preceding noise. Two of the eventsare explosions, two are rockbursts and eight are earthquakes. Theperformance and possibilities of using statistical tests based on bispectra, asa complementary tool for conventional analysis of seismic phases isdemonstrated. The preceding noise recorded before the first onset of theP-wave for the twelve events is tested to be spatially stationarybetween each channel within each array and temporal stationary in 21consecutive time windows of 3.2 sec each. Also, the preceding noise issymmetric and linear. The seismic phases defined by the symmetry test asnon-Gaussian (not symmetric) are all linear. This means a linear model canbe used to characterize both the noise and the phases. The first P-phase for the two explosions is characterized as non-Gaussian at thethree arrays. For all 36 possibly first P-phase arrivals at the three arraystations, 23 are non-Gaussian. The second P-phase is non-Gaussian at13 of 36 data records, the S-phase at eleven of 36 and the Lg-phase at nine of 36. For all the four phases more than 32 of possible36 are time-reversible.     

A viscoelastic shear zone model of compressional and extensional plate boundaries

A model is proposed describing the mechanical evolution of a shear zone along compressional and extensional plate boundaries, subject to constant strain rate. The shear zones are assumed as viscoelastic with Maxwell rheology and with elastic and rheological parameters depending on temperature and petrology. Stress and strain are computed as functions of time and depth. For both kinds of boundaries the model reproduces the existence of a shallow seismogenic zone, characterized by a stress concentration. The thickness of the seismogenic layer is evaluated considering the variations of shear stress and frictional strength on faults embedded in the shear zone. Assuming that a fault dislocation takes place, the brittle-ductile transition is assumed to occur at the depth at which the time derivative of total shear stress changes from positive to negative values. The effects of different strain rates and geothermal gradients on the depth of the brittle-ductile transition are studied. The model predictions are consistent with values inferred from seismicity data of different boundary zones.     

中国地震烈度评定值的统计检验

为研究我国地震烈度的评定是否存在随时间变化的趋势,本文从统计的角度,选取合适的烈度衰减关系模型作标准,基于残差分析的基本原理,对1900年到2013年间392个地震的烈度评定值随年份变化的趋势进行了统计分析,并提出一种改进的衡量拟合优劣的算法,量化数据的整体偏差并直观地展现数据的离散程度.统计检验结果表明,烈度评定值无论按区域划分、按震级划分或是按烈度划分均与整体存在一致且显著的时间分布趋势：1960年之前烈度评定值较为离散,1960年到1980年左右烈度评定值逐年减小,1980年开始烈度评定值逐渐增大,2000年以后绝大多数烈度评定值高于平均水平,且该时段烈度评定值偏高程度尤为明显,平均总体偏高约0.4度,且有继续增高的趋势.

     

Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906.     

基于ITRF2005的全球板块运动模型

利用最新的国际地球自转服务(IERS)发表的国际地球参考框架ITRF2005的速度场,建立了一个完全基于现代空间大地测量实测结果的现今全球板块运动模型ITRF2005VEL,并与地质模型NNR-NUVELlA及以往利用ITRF序列所建立的模型进行了比较.结果表明,从整体上看ITRF2005VEL与NNR-NUVELlA模型有较好的一致性,且较以往的ITRF序列的模型精度更高,但同时也存在着一定的差异性,这与观测台站、板块本身等相关因素都有关.本文还由ITRF2005VEL模型计算了构造板块的总角动量,结果不为零,说明ITRF2005框架有可能不满足无整体旋转的要求.     

弹性板块运动模型研究进展

传统板块构造理论认为板块是一个刚体,实际上板块是可变形的.板块内部几年到几十年时间尺度的变形主要是弹性变形,因此应当用弹性模型描述板块运动.推导了板块的弹性运动方程,由空间大地测量新的观测成果建立了菲律宾海、太平洋和澳大利亚板块的弹性运动模型.发现三个板块内部都存在明显的水平形变.板内应变场的空间变化有明显的规律：板块边界附近的应变率最大,从边界向内部逐渐减小;在板块扩散边界附近,主张应变率大于主压应变率,主张应变轴基本上与边界的扩张方向一致;在俯冲边界附近,主压应变率大于主张应变率,主压应变轴基本上与板块的俯冲方向一致;在走滑兼有俯冲性质的边界附近,最大剪应变的方向与边界断裂的走向基本一致.由GPS观测得到的主压应变轴与由震源机制解得到的主压应力轴方向具有很好的一致性.板内的应力－应变场基本上遵循广义胡克定律.     

Global tectonics and the plate motion obtained from the ITRF97 station velocity vectors

~~Global tectonics and the plate motion obtained from the ITRF97 station velocity vectors@马宗晋 @任金卫 @张进~~     

南极板块运动新模型的确定与分析

自1995年起,国际南极研究科学委员会（SCAR,the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research）组织实施全南极国际GPS（Global Positioning System）联测.本文运用GAMIT/GLOBK软件分析了从1997到2004年的SCAR GPS数据和在南极的一些GPS永久跟踪站数据.数据处理分为两步,第一步：运用GAMIT软件进行单天解算,估计站位置、轨道等参数,其数据源主要有以下三类：(1) SCAR GPS观测站;（2）南极的连续跟踪站;（3）南极及其周边的部分IGS站;第二步：运用GLOBK软件加入SOPAC（Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center）的全球GPS子网（IGS1、IGS2、IGS3）进行全球网平差解算测站位置和速度.然后,参照地质构造讨论网的形变,分析了南极板块的现今地壳运动.GPS结果显示南极板块的欧拉角速度是0.224(°)/Ma,旋转极的位置为（58.69°N,128.29°W）,这与NNR-NUVEL-1A预测的和一些前期GPS研究的成果有着较大的不同.相对于澳大利亚板块,本文结果同其他模型的旋转角速度相差约0.01(°)/Ma,旋转极的位置相差在4°以内,不同模型之间的差异相对较小.这为描述南极板块运动提供了一个更为精确的新的运动模型.