Estimation of probable contribution of global warming to the genesis of abnormally hot summers in the European part of Russia

Temperature records for the Russian territory in summer 2010 are presented. The potential role that the current global warming plays in the formation of abnormally hot summers in the European part of Russia is discussed. Although the main reason for the extreme heat wave in 2010 was a quasi-stationary anticyclone blocking westerlies, global warming could also contribute to the observed temperature extremums adversely affecting the biota.     

Satellite monitoring of wildfires during the anomalous heat wave of 2010 in Russia

We describe the specific features of the summer 2010 emergency conditions in the European part of the Russian Federation, when an anomalous heat wave (the monthly mean temperatures in the summer months were 5–9°C higher than those for 2002–2009) and prolonged blocking anticyclones led to large wildfires. We analyze their causes and consequences. The features of the satellite system for operational fire monitoring (constructed at the Aerospace Scientific Center) and examples of its application in summer 2010 are presented. On the basis of the results of processing of satellite images of low (250–1000 m), medium (∼30–50 m), and high (∼6 m) resolutions, we found that the total area covered by fire from March to November of 2010 amounted to approximately 10.9 million hectares for the entire territory of the country and and 2.2 million hectares for its European part. Daily histograms of areas covered by fire in the summer months of 2010 were constructed. On the basis of these data and empirical models, we estimate the daily emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) from wildfires in the summer months of 2010 for the European part of Russia and Moscow oblast. On some days in August 2010, these emissions reached 15000–27000 t for the European part of Russia and 3000–7500 t for Moscow oblast. On the basis of analysis of data from the AIRS spectrometer (Aqua satellite), we derived the spatial distribution of CO concentrations at heights of 2 to 10 km above the territory of the Eastern and Central Europe. Moscow was shown to have been most severely affected by smoke from wildfires occurring on August 6–9, 2010, when the concentrations of harmful gases (CO₂, CO, CH₄, and O₃) and aerosols in the air significantly exceeded both the daily and the one-hour maximum allowable concentrations.     

Regional air temperature maxima and the possibility of their simple energy-balance estimates

The record high temperatures during the summer of 2010 in the central part of the European territory of Russia (ETR) raised great interest in the question of whether these temperatures are the maximum possible ones and whether these maxima can be estimated from energy-balance considerations. The gigantic anticyclone was long lasting and stable, allowing the maximum air temperatures to be estimated with the help of simple energy-balance considerations. This situation can be considered an equilibrium state if a stable meteorological situation persists for quite a long time. In this case these equilibrium temperatures can be estimated using energy-balance equations in the atmosphere and on the Earth’s surface. The simple energy-balance estimates presented in this paper show that the maximum daytime air temperatures recorded in the summer of 2010 in the central part of the ETR are close to the maximum theoretically possible values.     

长江流域夏季极端高温的年代际变化特征及其与大西洋多年代际振荡的关系

本文基于地面观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,利用经验正交函数分析、线性回归分析等方法对1960—2016年夏季(6—8月)长江流域的极端高温(Extreme High Temperature,EHT)事件的强度、暖昼、暖夜发生日数的年代际特征及其对应大气环流进行分析,并探讨了EHT事件与大西洋多年代际振荡(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO)的关系。结果表明,中国夏季长江流域的极端高温事件存在明显的年代际变化特征,其中1960—1970年和2002—2016年为暖时期,1971—2001年为冷时期。相较于冷时期,暖时期在高温强度、暖昼和暖夜的发生日数方面均明显偏暖。针对于该极端高温年代际特征的成因,研究结果表明,暖时期位于长江流域北部的对流层中高层异常反气旋和偏北偏西的西太平洋副高有利于该地区下沉运动的增强,进而有利于极端高温的出现。同时,在对流层低层,位于中国东部的异常反气旋将低纬地区的暖湿气流携带至长江流域,这也有利于长江流域EHT事件的发生。此外,进一步分析表明,AMO与长江流域夏季EHT事件在年代际尺度上存在明显的关系,AMO超前中国夏季长江流域的EHT事件6~8 a,这对预测中国长江流域极端高温事件具有一定的指示作用。     

西太平洋暖池海温异常年夏季东亚大气环流特征

利用NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料对西太平洋暖池区海表水温冷、暖异常年夏季东亚大气环流作了合成分析,与气候平均比较后发现:夏季暖池区暖异常时,在西太平洋上空的对流层低层产生一个强的反气旋偏差环流,因而不利于南海南部和赤道太平洋地区的西风发展,使热带夏季风强度减弱;在南海西部和中南半岛东部有偏差气流转向大陆,因而增强了偏南风,使副热带夏季风强度增强;在对流层中、下层副高脊线位置偏南,大约以400hPa为分界线,低层副高强度增强,高层副高强度减弱。西太平洋暖池冷异常年夏季东亚大气环流特征大致与上述情况相反,且强度或变化幅度小于暖异常年夏季。另外,与气候平均比较,暖异常年纬向Walker环流上升支大幅西移,而冷异常年该环流上升支则东移。     

Interannual variability of Kelvin wave propagation in the wave guides of the equatorial Indian Ocean,the coastal Bay of Bengal and the southeastern Arabian Sea during 1993–2006

The observed variability of the Kelvin waves and their propagation in the equatorial wave guide of the Indian Ocean and in the coastal wave guides of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the southeastern Arabian Sea (AS) on seasonal to interannual time scales during years 1993–2006 is examined utilizing all the available satellite and in-situ measurements. The Kelvin wave regime inferred from the satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) shows a distinct annual cycle composed of two pairs of alternate upwelling (first one occurring during January–March and the second one occurring during August–September) and downwelling (first one occurring during April–June and the second one occurring during October–December) Kelvin waves that propagate eastward along the equator and hit the Sumatra coast and bifurcate. The northern branches propagate counterclockwise over varied distances along the coastal wave guide of the BoB. The potential mechanisms that contribute to the mid-way termination of the first upwelling and the first downwelling Kelvin waves in the wave guide of the BoB are hypothesized. The second downwelling Kelvin wave alone reaches the southeastern AS, and it shows large interannual variability caused primarily by similar variability in the equatorial westerly winds during boreal fall. The westward propagating downwelling Rossby waves triggered by the second downwelling Kelvin wave off the eastern rim of the BoB also shows large interannual variability in the near surface thermal structure derived from SODA analysis. The strength of the equatorial westerlies driven by the east–west gradient of the heat sources in the troposphere appears to be a critical factor in determining the observed interannual variability of the second downwelling Kelvin wave in the wave guides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, the coastal BoB, and the southeastern AS.     

基于遥感的南海北部中尺度涡对内孤立波传播的影响

海洋内孤立波和中尺度涡是南海北部常见的中尺度动力过程。本文利用2010−2015年的Terra/Aqua-MODIS、ENVISAT ASAR和多源卫星高度计资料开展了南海海洋内孤立波和中尺度涡遥感探测研究,分析了中尺度涡对内孤立波传播方向的影响。结果表明,中尺度涡和内孤立波主要在南海东北部海域共存,当二者共存时,气旋（冷涡）促使内孤立波偏离原来的传播方向,向西偏南方向传播;反气旋（暖涡）促使内孤立波向西偏北方向传播,气旋与反气旋改变的内孤立波传播方向刚好相反。内孤立波和中尺度涡共存时间主要集中在3−9月,其中,3月受气旋和反气旋的共同作用,内孤立波传播方向几乎无变化;4月和5月,主要受气旋影响,内孤立波偏离原来传播方向向南传播;6−9月,主要受反气旋影响,内孤立波偏离原来的传播方向向北传播。本文利用遥感手段探索了海洋中尺度涡对内孤立波传播方向的影响,结果与现场观测结果一致。     

Connections of Precipitable Water Vapor and Total Ozone Anomalies over European Russia with the North Atlantic Oscillation: Specific Features of Summer 2010

Based on the measurements of precipitable water vapor (PWV) and total column ozone (TCO) from the MODIS satellite instruments (Aqua/Terra platforms), the connections between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the anomalies in PWV and TCO over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 are analyzed. It is found that the PWV (TCO) anomalies over the northern ER in summer 2010 positively (negatively) correlated with the NAO, and the local correlations reached 0.68 (–0.55). The physical mechanisms of the correlations are discussed. A comparative analysis of the relationships between the NAO and the regional PWV and TCO anomalies over ER during the summer seasons of 2000–2015 is carried out.     

黑潮冬季海温对我国东北地区夏季降水预测信号的增强

统计分析结果表明,黑潮冬季海温和东北夏季降水的关系有非常明显的年代际变化,表现为从20世纪50-60年代弱的正相关逐步转变为现阶段很强的负相关。尤其是在东北夏季降水异常年份,黑潮海温呈明显的反位相变化,因此可被视为一个非常有效的前兆预测信号。分析了可能的影响机制,即当前期黑潮海温偏低时,海洋热力异常的持续性会导致其夏季低层出现反气旋式风场距平环流,在西太平洋副热带高压(副高)西北侧出现东北风距平及在东北冷涡东南侧出现西南风距平,导致在副高区和东北冷涡区均形成气旋式距平环流系统,从而减弱了副高并增强了东北冷涡。反之,黑潮海温偏高时,其上空气旋式距平环流系统将减弱东北冷涡强度和增强副高强度。这是黑潮海温影响东北夏季降水异常的主要原因。     

山东大风天气的低频特征及机理分析

利用山东省122个国家级地面气象观测站的风速数据与欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)提供的ERA-interim再分析数据,采用小波分析、带通滤波等方法对2015年9月—2020年9月山东的大风天气及相应的低频大气环流形势进行分析.结果表明,近几年山东的大风天气有增加的趋势,春季大风发生频次最多,秋季最少;山东半岛东部...     

Water-vapor content in the atmosphere over European Russia during the summer 2010 fires

We study the water vapor (WV) content over European Russia (ER) during the period of forest and peatbog fires in July–August 2010 using total column water vapor observations from MODIS instruments (both Aqua and Terra platforms) as well as aerological data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. It is found that the spatial distribution of total column water vapor (TCWV) over ER in this period was anomalous, with the WV excess in the north of the territory and its deficit in the south of ER. The relationship between WV variations, atmospheric dynamics and the fire situation is analyzed. Along with the processes of the WV advection and evaporation we evaluate the contribution of pyrogenic emission of WV in spatial-temporal evolution of WV over ER during wildfires. The changes of water vapor at different heights in the troposphere and stratosphere are investigated. The results of a comparative analysis of WV contents during the periods of summertime atmospheric blockings in 1972 and 2010 are also presented. The near-infrared total-column precipitable water MODIS products (L3) are validated by upper-air radiosonde data.     

Spatial variations in the air turbidity factor above the European part of Russia under conditions of abnormal summer of 2010

We analyze spatial variations in the air turbidity factor T obtained from the interpolation of ground-based solar radiometry data within the territory (40°–70° N, 30°–60° E) in summer 2010. The abnormal heat and connected fires of summer 2010 changed the mean values of air turbidity and the character of its spatial variations. As a result, a “tongue” of increased values of the turbidity factor was observed in the south-to-north direction in July, and a closed region of anomalous high T was formed over the territory (48°–55° N, 37°–42° E) to the south of Moscow and partly covered the Moscow region in August. Such a pattern resulted from blockage preventing from ingress of air masses from the west and producing closed air circulation over the European Part of Russia (EPR).     

南海夏季风爆发时期的大气环流变化特征

利用美国国家环境预报中心和气象研究中心的42年模式再分析资料,采用合成分析的方法,考察了南海夏季风爆发时期环流季节变化的特征.研究发现:尽管采用不同指标确定的南海夏季风爆发时间在有的年份差别很大,但各种不同指标对应的南海夏季风爆发时期大气环流的变化具有某些共同的特征.通过对各种指标确定夏季风爆发时间一致年份的大气环流特征分析表明,延伸到南海北岸附近地区的海上锋区对流加热和孟加拉湾北部陆地上的对流加热、沿东亚近海向西太平洋推进的冷空气是控制南海夏季风爆发的主要因素.对南海夏季风爆发早与爆发晚的年份的合成环流特征进一步表明:爆发早的年份,影响东亚附近海区的冷空气势力和南海南部的对流活动相对强,而爆发晚的年份,冷空气和南海南部的对流活动的影响要相对弱的多.日本本岛南部黑潮海区因冷空气激发的对流活动对南海夏季风的爆发也有重要的影响.     

Specific features of the 2010 summer heat formation in the European territory of Russia in the context of general climate changes and climate anomalies

Specific features of the extreme summer heat of 2010 in the European part of Russia are analyzed against the background of global and regional climate changes taking into account antropogenic influences and natural anomalies related, in particular, to the El Niño/La Niña phenomena. The tendencies of the characteristics of the activity of blocking anticyclones (blockings) responsible for the formation of drought regimes and the increase in the fire hazard at midlatitudes are estimated in connection with climate changes.     

夏季北极太平洋扇区和白令海对流层结构分析

利用我国第六次—第九次北极科学考察雪龙船走航探空数据,计算北极太平洋扇区和白令海的夏季对流层高度,分析对流层内的风速、温度、水汽廓线,从而确定对流层结构,并分析各要素的垂直分布和经向分布特征。结果表明:夏季北极太平洋扇区和白令海的递减率对流层顶、冷点对流层顶平均值分别为10 003 m、10 116 m,对流层高度随纬度增加而降低。夏季北极大气对流层低层和对流层顶存在逆温,对流层顶的逆温高度和厚度随纬度增加而降低。大气可降水量与纬度呈负相关,且集中于对流层中低层。近地面的风速受地表摩擦力的影响较明显,对流层内的风速随高度增加而增大,高空急流的强度和高度随纬度增加而减小,风廓线和急流易受天气尺度过程的影响。研究结果揭示了夏季北极太平洋扇区和白令海的对流层结构,并可用于检验数值预报模式对北极大气垂直结构的预报效果、评估再分析资料描述北极大气垂直结构的能力。     

Study of the propagation direction of the internal waves in the South China Sea using satellite images

Internal wave propagation carries considerable vertical shear which can lead to turbulence and mixing. Based on the analysis of more than 2 500 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical satellite images, the internal wave propagation in the whole South China Sea was investigated systematically. The results show that (1) in the northeastern South China Sea, most internal waves propagate westward from the Luzon Strait and are diffracted by coral reefs near the Dongsha Islands. Some impinge onto the shelf and a few are reflected; (2) in the northwestern South China Sea, most internal waves are generated at the shelf and propagate northwestward or westward to the coast; (3) in the western South China Sea, most internal waves propagate westward to the Vietnamese coast, except a few propagate southward to the deep sea; and (4) in the southern South China Sea, most internal waves propagate southwestward to the coast. Some propagate southeastward to the coast of Kalimantan Island, and a few propagate southeastward because of the influence of the Mekong River.     

南海冬季海浪的时空变率特征

The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the waves in the South China Sea(SCS) in the boreal winter during the period of 1979/1980–2011/2012 have been investigated based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts interim(ERA-Interim) reanalysis dataset. The results show that the leading mode of significant wave height anomalies(SWHA) in the SCS exhibits significant interannual variation and a decadal shift around the mid-1990 s, and features a basin-wide pattern in the entire SCS with a center located in the west of the Luzon Strait. The decadal change from a weak regime to a strong regime is mainly associated with the enhancement of winter monsoon modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO). The interannual variation of the SWHA has a significant negative correlation with the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the same season and the preceding autumn. For a better understanding of the physical mechanism between the SCS ocean waves and ENSO, further investigation is made by analyzing atmospheric circulation. The impact of the ENSO on the SWHA over the SCS is bridged by the East Asian winter monsoon and Pacific-East Asian teleconnection in the lower troposphere. During the El Ni?o(La Ni?a), the anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone(cyclone) dominates over the Western North Pacific, helps to weaken(enhance) East Asian winter monsoon and then emerges the negative(positive) SWHA in the SCS.     

1994年6月东亚季风异常的数值模拟

用MM5区域气候模式对1994年6月东亚季风进行了数值模拟。模式模拟的月平均环流和降水与实况相接近。1994年6月东亚季风活动十分异常,中国东南部的西南季风、西太平洋副热带高压、南亚高压都出现了两次突变性的北跳,对此模式均做出了较好的模拟     

NO<Subscript>2</Subscript> content variations near St. Petersburg as inferred from ground-based and satellite measurements of scattered solar radiation

An automatic spectral complex developed at the Institute of Physics, St. Petersburg State University, is described. This complex is used for regular ground-based spectroscopic measurements of the total NO₂ content in the vertical column of the atmosphere during the twilight and daylight hours of the day near St. Petersburg (Petrodvorets). In 2004–2006, a number of ground-based twilight measurements of the total NO₂ content were obtained near St. Petersburg, and variations in the NO₂ content in the troposphere were estimated from the results of daytime ground-based measurements. An example of the spatial annual mean distribution of the NO₂ content (central and northern Europe, northwestern Russia) based on the data of satellite measurements over the period 2003–2005 is presented. This example demonstrates the main sources of anthropogenic pollution. An increase in the mean annual contents of tropospheric NO₂ near Moscow and St. Petersburg is preliminarily estimated for the entire period of satellite observations with the GOME instrument at about 30–40% over ten years.     

Link between anomalously cold winters in Russia and sea-ice decline in the Barents Sea

There were several anomalously cold winter weather regimes in Russia in the early 21st century. These regimes were usually associated with a blocking anticyclone south of the Barents Sea. Numerical simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using prescribed sea-ice concentration (SIC) data for different periods during the last 50 years showed that a rapid sea-ice area decline in the Barents Sea in the last decade could bring about the formation of such a blocking anticyclone and cooling over northern Eurasia. The SIC reduction in the former period, from the second half of the 1960s to the first half of the 1990s, results in a weaker response of opposite sign. This suggests a nonlinear atmospheric circulation response to the SIC reduction in the Barents Sea, which has been previously found in the idealized AGCM simulations. An impact of the Barents Sea SIC reduction on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in particular, on the formation of the anomalously low NAO index, is found. The results indicate an important role that the Barents Sea, a region with the largest variability of the ocean–atmosphere heat exchange in the Arctic in wintertime, plays in generating anomalous weather regimes in Russia.