水库诱发地震预测方法研究

利用模糊聚类分析和灰色聚类分析提出了预测水库诱发地震上限震级的方法，并以新丰江水库地震为例进行了讨论。研究表明，预测的上限震级与实际发震情况相符     

改进的层次分析法与模糊综合评价在评估水库诱发地震震级上限中的应用

为了评估水库诱发地震震级上限,收集了150余例水库诱发地震的震例资料;利用改进的层次分析法优化了各评价指标的权重;应用模糊综合评价方法评估了水库诱发地震震级上限;结合二滩水电站水库诱发地震实例与目前评估水库诱发地震震级最常用的灰色聚类分析法的评价结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:层次分析法与模糊综合评价相结合的震级上限评估方法评价结果更加可靠,可对水库及水工建筑物的建设位置及抗震设防提供参考。     

地震区多层石结构抗震抗剪能力的模糊可靠性分析

本文通过考虑地震烈度的随机性和模糊性,以及石结构强度破坏等级界限的模糊性,研究多层石结构抗震抗剪能力的可靠性问题.将地震地面运动模拟为含有模糊烈度参数的平稳过滤有色噪声的随机过程,引入抗剪强度破坏指数,建立了石结构抗震抗剪能力的模糊安全准则,为研究多层石结构的抗震抗剪能力可靠性提供了一个合理的评定方法。     

评定混凝土强度的置信区间方法

提出一种新的模糊回归数据融合方法的超声回弹测强曲线,此测强曲线可以减小偶然误差,提高检测的精度。同时,运用置信检验理论提出了在给定置信度下经过修正后的建筑结构强度的置信区间,并给出了混凝土强度的三个评定标准。此方法比较符合工程实际情况,且对混凝土强度做出了定量的判定。     

Risk management of BTEX contamination in ground water--an integrated fuzzy approach

An integrated fuzzy simulation-assessment method (FSAM) was developed for assessing environmental risks from petroleum hydrocarbon contamination in ground water. In the FSAM, techniques of fuzzy simulation and fuzzy risk assessment were coupled into a general framework to reflect a variety of system uncertainties. A petroleum-contaminated site located in western Canada was selected as a study case for demonstrating applicability of the proposed method. The risk assessment results demonstrated that system uncertainties would significantly impact expressions of risk-level outputs. A relatively deterministic expression of the risks would have clearer representations of the study problem but may miss valuable uncertain information; conversely, an assessment under vaguer system conditions would help reveal potential consequences of adverse effects but would suffer from a higher degree of fuzziness in presenting the modeling outputs. Based on the risk assessment results, a decision analysis procedure was used to calculate a general risk index (GRI) to help identify proper responsive actions. The proposed method was useful for evaluating risks within a system containing multiple factors with complicated uncertainties and interactions and providing support for identifying proper site management strategies.     

模糊聚类在不良地质洞段红外探水中的应用

在玉昆铁路柿花树隧道不良地质发育的洞段进行红外探水工作期间,常用的分析方法有时无法预判掌子面前方是否存在隐伏水体或含水构造。为了提高红外探水短距离预报的准确率,用模糊聚类法将掌子面测点场强的数据分类,根据开挖传递的地质信息,研究模糊聚类结果的变化规律、突水风险与岩体破碎程度之间的关系。实践证明,模糊聚类法和常用分析方法的结合,使红外探水取得了较好的预判效果。     

双向地震作用下崩塌堆积体边坡动力模糊可靠性分析

考虑崩塌堆积体边坡岩土体参数随机性和模糊性,以及地震力双向性,建立一种边坡地震动力模糊可靠度计算方法,针对竖向地震力对崩塌堆积体边坡稳定可靠性的影响进行进一步研究。首先,选用动力有限元时程分析法计算出双向地震工况下崩塌堆积体边坡的响应特征,并运用模糊理论对强度参数进行模糊性处理;然后,根据Mohr-Coulumb强度准则构建边坡安全系数与可靠度的时程计算模型;最后,采用边坡地震可靠性评价新方法,通过MATLAB编写相应程序,实现计算和分析结果的快速输出。案例结果表明:新方法计算结果更加合理,对工程而言也更加安全;竖向地震作用均对崩塌堆积体边坡整体可靠性存在影响,但影响程度需根据工程实际情况进行分析。在算例工况下,竖向地震对崩塌堆积体边坡的可靠性影响很小,仅使得可靠度降低3.55%,因此,可仅考虑水平地震的影响。     

Managing water resources system in a mixed inexact environment using superiority and inferiority measures

A superiority–inferiority-based fuzzy-stochastic integer programming (SI-FSIP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. In the SI-FSIP method, techniques of fuzzy mathematical programming with the superiority and inferiority measures and joint chance-constrained programming are integrated into an inexact mixed integer linear programming framework. The SI-FSIP improves upon conventional inexact fuzzy programming by directly reflecting the relationships among fuzzy coefficients in both the objective function and constraints with a high computational efficiency, and by comprehensively examining the risk of violating joint probabilistic constraints. The developed method is applied to a case study of water resources planning and flood control within a multi-stream and multi-reservoir context, where several studied cases (including policy scenarios) associated with different joint and individual probabilities are investigated. Reasonable solutions including binary and continuous decision variables are generated for identifying optimal strategies for water allocation, flood diversion and capacity expansion; the tradeoffs between total benefit and system-disruption risk are also analyzed. As the first attempt for planning such a water-resources system through the SI-FSIP method, it has potential to be applied to many other environmental management problems.     

THE THEORY OF RESPONSE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY STOCHASTIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS WITH A SINGLE DEGREE OF FREEDOM

Most real-life structural/mechanical systems have complex geometrical and material properties and operate under complex fuzzy environmental conditions. These systems are certainly subjected to fuzzy random excitations induced by the environment. For an analytical treatment of such a system subjected to fuzzy random excitations, it becomes necessary to establish the general theory of dynamic response of a system to fuzzy random excitations. In this paper, the theory of response, fuzzy mean response and fuzzy covariance response of a single-degree-of-freedom (sdf) system to fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is put forward. The theory of response analysis of an sdf system to both stationary and non-stationary fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is established. Two examples are considered in order to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the theory, and the models of stationary filtered white noise and non-stationary filtered white noise fuzzy stochastic processes of the earthquake ground motion are set up. Methods of analysis for fuzzy random seismic response of sdf systems are put forward using the principles of response analysis of an sdf fuzzy random dynamic system.     

模糊检测数据下服役钢筋混凝土桥梁的动态可靠度评估

针对服役桥梁的可靠性评估中无法基于不完备、缺陷的检测数据准确获得变量统计特征的问题,提出了模糊检测数据下既有钢筋混凝土桥梁的动态可靠性分析方法。以氯盐腐蚀下引起钢筋截面积减弱,导致结构承载能力和可靠性能降低为主线,采用隶属函数来描述缺陷信息,通过等概率原理将模糊变量转化成当量随机变量,进而基于任意概率密度函数的Monte Carlo抽样方法,分析了一座实桥的动态可靠指标变化情况。结果表明：模糊检测数据的均值对钢筋截面减弱影响较大,其中保护层厚度均值对其影响最为显著,这同样表现在对可靠指标的影响中;变量模糊幅度的影响较小,在确定隶属函数的过程中,更应注重隶属函数的均值。     

基于BIM的建筑砌体结构抗震性能评估方法研究

建筑砌体结构抗震性能评估,对建筑结构安全的稳定性至关重要。本文从四个方面分析建筑砌体结构抗震性能提升的条件,根据建筑结构的抗震性影响因素,评估抗震能力。构建建筑砌体结构抗震性能的评估BIM指标体系;利用BIM模型中的三角模糊数,定量计算建筑砌体结构抗震性能指标的模糊判断矩阵,得到建筑砌体结构的三角模糊数值,分析筑砌体结构抗震性能指标的单排序情况,结合对建筑砌体结构抗震性能评估体系指标权重系数和单项得分的计算,实现基于BIM的建筑砌体结构抗震性能评估。结合模拟建筑实例分析,利用建筑结构倒塌概率测试建筑砌体结构的抗震性能,并利用评估结果与实际评估结果的拟合度测试提出方法的准确性。实例结果证明,能够准确的得到抗震性能的评估结果。     

RESPONSE ANALYSIS FOR FUZZY STOCHASTIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS WITH MULTIPLE DEGREES OF FREEDOM

Most real-life structural/mechanical systems have complex geometrical and material properties and operate under complex fuzzy environmental conditions. These systems are certainly subjected to fuzzy random excitations induced by the environment. For an analytical treatment of such a system subjected to fuzzy random excitations, it becomes necessary to establish the general theory of dynamic response of a system to fuzzy random excitations. In this paper, we extend the work published in Reference [1], and discuss the case of Multi-Degree-of-Freedom (MDF) fuzzy stochastic dynamical systems. The theory of the response, fuzzy mean response and fuzzy covariance response of multi-degree-of-freedom system to fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is put forward. Two cases to determine the fuzzy response statistics of the fuzzy stochastic dynamical system with multiple degrees of freedom are discussed. Two examples are considered in order to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the theory. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of residual shear strength ratios of liquefied soil deposits from shear wave velocity

For sites susceptible to liquefaction induced lateral spreading during a probable earthquake, geotechnical engineers often need to know the undrained residual shear strength of the liquefied soil deposit to estimate lateral spreading displacements, and the forces acting on the piles from the liquefied soils in order to perform post liquefaction stability analyses. The most commonly used methods to estimate the undrained residual shear strength (Sur) of liquefied sand deposits are based on the correlations determined from liquefaction induced flow failures with SPT and CPT data. In this study, 44 lateral spread case histories are analyzed and a new relationship based on only lateral spread case histories is recommended, which estimates the residual shear strength ratio of the liquefiable soil layer from normalized shear wave velocity. The new proposed method is also utilized to estimate the residual lateral displacement of an example bridge problem in an area susceptible to lateral spreading in order to provide insight into how the proposed relationship can be used in geotechnical engineering practice.     

考虑模糊因素的框架结构震害预测方法

通过二次评判法,在考虑框架结构强度、变形破坏准则的基础上,引入了房屋破损程度、施工质量等模糊因素,使框架结构的震害预测建立在既考虑可精确计量的强度、变形等因素,又考虑了诸多无法精确计量的模糊因素基础上,从而复原了震害预测的本质即概率和模糊的特性。     

CPT-based analysis of liquefaction and re-liquefaction following the Canterbury earthquake sequence

The Canterbury region experienced widespread damage due to liquefaction induced by seismic shaking during the 4 September 2010 earthquake and the large aftershocks that followed, notably those that occurred on 22 February, 13 June and 23 December 2011. Following the 2010 earthquake, the Earthquake Commission directed a thorough investigation of the ground profile in Christchurch, and to date, more than 7500 cone penetration tests (CPT) have been performed in the region. This paper presents the results of analyses which use a subset of the geotechnical database to evaluate the liquefaction process as well as the re-liquefaction that occurred following some of the major events in Christchurch. First, the applicability of existing CPT-based methods for evaluating liquefaction potential of Christchurch soils was investigated using three methods currently available. Next, the results of liquefaction potential evaluation were compared with the severity of observed damage, categorised in terms of the land damage grade developed from Tonkin & Taylor property inspections as well as from observed severity of liquefaction from aerial photography. For this purpose, the Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) was used to represent the damage potential at each site. In addition, a comparison of the CPT-based strength profiles obtained before each of the major aftershocks was performed. The results suggest that the analysis of spatial and temporal variations of strength profiles gives a clear indication of the resulting liquefaction and re-liquefaction observed in Christchurch. The comparison of a limited number of CPT strength profiles before and after the earthquakes seems to indicate that no noticeable strengthening has occurred in Christchurch, making the area vulnerable to liquefaction induced land damage in future large-scale earthquakes.     

图象识别方法在工程地震学中的应用

本文讨论图象识别方法在工程地震学中应用的现状及前景。首先简略介绍算法的基本原理及对算法的改进,然后作为新研究成果的介绍论述了图象识别方法在确定潜在震源区、砂土液化势方面的应用以及用C-拓扑模糊决策分类系统——一种新的动态分类系统去估计潜在震源区随时间变化发震能力——地震势的方法     

Prediction of effective porosity from seismic attributes using locally linear model tree algorithm

In this study, a locally linear model tree algorithm was used to optimize a neuro‐fuzzy model for prediction of effective porosity from seismic attributes in one of Iranian oil fields located southwest of Iran. Valid identification of effective porosity distribution in fractured carbonate reservoirs is extremely essential for reservoir characterization. These high‐accuracy predictions facilitate efficient exploration and management of oil and gas resources. The multi‐attribute stepwise linear regression method was used to select five out of 26 seismic attributes one by one. These attributes introduced into the neuro‐fuzzy model to predict effective porosity. The neuro‐fuzzy model with seven locally linear models resulted in the lowest validation error. Moreover, a blind test was carried out at the location of two wells that were used neither in training nor validation. The results obtained from the validation and blind test of the model confirmed the ability of the proposed algorithm in predicting the effective porosity. In the end, the performance of this neuro‐fuzzy model was compared with two regular neural networks of a multi‐layer perceptron and a radial basis function, and the results show that a locally linear neuro‐fuzzy model trained by a locally linear model tree algorithm resulted in more accurate porosity prediction than standard neural networks, particularly in the case where irregularities increase in the data set. The production data have been also used to verify the reliability of the porosity model. The porosity sections through the two wells demonstrate that the porosity model conforms to the production rate of wells. Comparison of the locally linear neuro‐fuzzy model performance on different wells indicates that there is a distinct discrepancy in the performance of this model compared with the other techniques. This discrepancy in the performance is a function of the correlation between the model inputs and output. In the case where the strength of the relationship between seismic attributes and effective porosity decreases, the neuro‐fuzzy model results in more accurate prediction than regular neural networks, whereas the neuro‐fuzzy model has a close performance to neural networks if there is a strong relationship between seismic attributes and effective porosity. The effective porosity map, presented as the output of the method, shows a high‐porosity area in the centre of zone 2 of the Ilam reservoir. Furthermore, there is an extensive high‐porosity area in zone 4 of Sarvak that extends from the centre to the east of the reservoir.     

Fuzzy sliding mode control for a building structure based on genetic algorithms

Based on the genetic algorithms (GAs), a fuzzy sliding mode control (FSMC) method for the building structure is designed in this research. When a fuzzy logic control method is used for a structural system, it is hard to get proper control rules directly, and to guarantee the stability and robustness of the fuzzy control system. Generally, the fuzzy controller combined with sliding mode control is applied, but there is still no criterion to reach an optimal design of the FSMC. In this paper, therefore, we design a fuzzy sliding mode controller for the building structure control system as an optimization problem and apply the optimal searching algorithms and GAs to find the optimal rules and membership functions of the FSMC. The proposed approach has the merit to determine the optimal structure and the inference rules of fuzzy sliding mode controller simultaneously. It is found that the building structure under the proposed control method could sustain in safety and stability when the system is subjected to external disturbances. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mineral potential mapping in Central Iran using fuzzy ordered weighted averaging method

The aim of this work is to introduce the application of the fuzzy ordered weighted averaging method as a straightforward knowledge‐driven approach to explore porphyry copper deposits in an airborne prospect. In this paper, the proposed method is applied to airborne geophysical (potassium radiometry, magnetometry, and frequency‐domain electromagnetic) data, geological layers (fault and host rock zones), and various extracted alteration layers from remote sensing images. The central Iranian volcanic–sedimentary belt in Kerman province of Iran that is located within the Urumieh–Dokhtar (Sahand–Bazman) magmatic arc is chosen for this study. This region has high potential of mineral occurrences, especially porphyry copper, containing some active world‐class copper mines such as Sarcheshmeh. Two evidential layers, including the downward continued map and the analytic signal of such filtered magnetic data, are generated to be used as geophysical plausible traces of porphyry copper occurrences. The low values of the resistivity layer acquired from airborne frequency‐domain electromagnetic data are also used as an electrical criterion in this study. Four remote sensing evidential layers, including argillic, phyllic, propylitic, and hydroxyl alterations, are extracted from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer images in order to map the altered areas associated with porphyry copper deposits. The Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus images are used to map iron oxide layer. Since potassium alteration is the mainstay of copper alteration, the airborne potassium radiometry data are used. Here, the fuzzy ordered weighted averaging method uses a wide range of decision strategies in order to generate numerous mineral potential/prospectivity maps. The final mineral potential map based upon desired geo‐data set indicates adequately matching of high‐potential zones with previous working mines and copper deposits.     

A comparative study of fuzzy weights of evidence and random forests for mapping mineral prospectivity for skarn-type Fe deposits in the southwestern Fujian metallogenic belt,China

Recent studies have pointed out that the widespread iron deposits in southwestern Fujian metallogenic belt (SFMB) (China) are skarn-type deposits associated with the Yanshanian granites. There is still excellent potential for mineral exploration because large areas in this belt are covered by forest. A new predictive model for mapping skarn-type Fe deposit prospectivity in this belt was developed and focused on in this study, using five criteria as evidence: (1) the contact zones of Yanshanian granites (GRANITE); (2) the contact zones within the late Paleozoic marine sedimentary rocks and the carbonate formations (FORMATION); (3) the NE-NNE-trending faults (FAULT); (4) the zones of skarn alterations (SKARN); and (5) the aeromagnetic anomaly (AEROMAGNETIC). The fuzzy weights of evidence (FWofE) method, developed from the classical weights of evidence (WofE) and based on fuzzy sets and fuzzy probabilities, could provide smaller variances and more accurate posterior probabilities and could effectively minimize the uncertainty caused by omitted or wrongly assigned data and be more flexible than the WofE. It is an efficient and widely used method for mineral potential mapping. Random forests (RF) is a new and useful method for data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity method, and needs further scrutiny. Both prospectivity results respectively using the FWofE and RF methods reveal that the prediction model for the skarn-type Fe deposits in the SFMB is successful and efficient. Both methods suggested that the GRANITE and FORMATION are the most valuable evidence maps, followed by SKARN, AEROMAGNETIC, and FAULT. This is coincident with the skarn-type Fe deposit mineral model in the SFMB. The unstable performance experienced when FORMATION was omitted might indicate that the highest uncertainty and risk in follow-up exploration is related to the sequences. In addition, the performance of the RF method for the skarn-type Fe deposits prospectivity in the SFMB is better than the FWofE; therefore, it could be used to guide further exploration of skarn-type Fe prospects in the SFMB.