描绘未来美国新的地震科学中心发展蓝图

为实现地震科学研究的变革性进步，持续引领在地震断层行为和地震过程研究上的科技前沿，美国国家自然科学基金会（NSF）决定采用竞争性的方式重新建设一个或多个新的地震科学中心，并公开征集新中心的建设愿景、科学方向、功能设置及基础设施建设思路。美国南加州地震中心（SCEC）积极响应并提出24份方案，本文予以概貌性描述，为进一步深入解读提供参考。     

Temporal cycles of karst denudation in northwest Georgia,U.S.A.

Time patterns of karst denudation in northwest Georgia (U.S.A.) were investigated at three spring sites for 12 months and at five stream sites for 10 years. Rainfall was evenly distributed and showed no significant seasonality. At the springs, as well as the streams, water hardness was largely controlled by discharge. At the springs, soil pCO₂ and water pH were strongly correlated (r + -0·69 to -0·83). Solute transport in spring waters was highly seasonal, with two conduit flow springs removing more limestone in the winter, and the diffuse flow spring removing more during the growing season. At the stream sites, most denudation occurred during the winter and spring seasons, and least during the summer. Fourier analysis showed that variations in denudation occur on deterministic (long-wave) as well as stochastic (shortwave) time scales. As contributing variables, discharge varied in short-wave and long-wave cycles, whereas soil pCO₂ showed only a long-wave cycle. The 12 month deterministic cycles were the most important, with changes in discharge taking precedence over soil pCO₂. Time series regression explains up to 69 per cent of changes in denudation through rain and soil pCO₂. Time cycles in available water are the key controlling factor of denudation, and amounts of available soil CO₂ may not be as important in the temporal patterns of karst downwearing as has been believed previously.     

Beach erosion as a function of variations in the sediment budget,Sandy Hook,New Jersey,U.S.A.

Many of the world's beaches have recently been eroding, even on progradational landforms. This study uses the sediment budget approach to identify and rank the causes of the hazard along Sandy Hook spit where the primary recreational beach has been eroding at about 10 m/yr since 1953 and 23 m/yr in the 1970s. Large spatial variations in longshore sediment transport are found to result from differences in refracted wave energies and intersegmental sediment transport. Erosion results from a 60 per cent deficit (-270,000 m³/yr) in the sediment budget that is primarily caused by (1) refraction induced locally high waves that increase the transport rate by 100,000 m³, and (2) shore protection structures that have lessened the longshore sediment inputs by an additional 100,000 m³/yr. A storm index is presented to analyse secular climatic variation. It suggests that the annual sediment transport rate may vary by as much as ±50 per cent about the mean and that recently, above normal storm wave energies are responsible for about 60,000 m³/yr of the budget deficit. Rising sea levels and storm overwash each account for only about one per cent of the sediment loss. Pulses of sediment, induced by accelerated erosion at the feeder beach locale of spit segments, are found to move downdrift. They alter the geomorphology of the spit through episodic extensions of the spit segments with lag times exceeding one year per segment.     

The effects of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee on the bed sediment geochemistry of U.S. Atlantic coastal rivers

Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, both of which made landfall in the U.S. between late August and early September 2011, generated record or near record water discharges in 41 coastal rivers between the North Carolina/South Carolina border and the U.S./Canadian border. Despite the discharge of substantial amounts of suspended sediment from many of these rivers, as well as the probable influx of substantial amounts of eroded material from the surrounding basins, the geochemical effects on the <63‐µm fractions of the bed sediments appear relatively limited [<20% of the constituents determined (256 out of 1394)]. Based on surface area measurements, this lack of change occurred despite substantial alterations in both the grain size distribution and the composition of the bed sediments. The sediment‐associated constituents which display both concentration increases and decreases include: total sulfur (TS), Hg, Ag, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), Zn, Se, Co, Cu, Pb, As, Cr, and total carbon (TC). As a group, these constituents tend to be associated either with urbanization/elevated population densities and/or wastewater/solid sludge. The limited number of significant sediment‐associated chemical changes that were detected probably resulted from two potential processes: (1) the flushing of in‐stream land‐use affected sediments that were replaced by baseline material more representative of local geology and/or soils (declining concentrations), and/or (2) the inclusion of more heavily affected material as a result of urban nonpoint‐source runoff and/or releases from flooded treatment facilities (increasing concentrations). Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Climate moderates potential shifts in streamflow from changes in pinyon‐juniper woodland cover across the western U.S.

Pinyon‐juniper (PJ) cover has increased up to 10‐fold in many parts of the western U.S. in the last 140+ years. The impacts of these changes on streamflows are unclear and may vary depending on the intra‐annual distribution and amount of precipitation. Given the importance of streamflow in the western U.S., it is important to understand how shifts in PJ woodland cover may produce changes in streamflow across the region's diverse hydroclimates. To this end, we simulated the land surface water balance with contrasting woodland and grassland cover with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model at a 4‐km resolution across the distribution of PJ woodlands in the western U.S. We used shifts in evapotranspiration (ET) between woodland and grassland cover as a proxy for potential changes in streamflows. Comparison of HBV model results with paired catchment studies indicated the model reasonably simulated annual decreases in ET with changes from woodland to grassland cover. For the northern and western ecoregions of the PJ distribution in the western U.S. where precipitation predominantly occurs in the winter, HBV simulated a 25 mm (37%) annual decrease in ET with conversion to grassland from woodland. Conversely, in southern ecoregions of PJ distribution with prominent summer monsoons, annual differences in ET were only 6 mm (19%). Our results suggest that only 29% of the PJ distribution, compared to an estimated 45% based on precipitation amount alone, has the potential for meaningful increases in streamflow with land cover change from woodland to grassland.     

Glacial isostatic adjustment in 3-D earth models: Implications for the analysis of tide gauge records along the U.S. east coast

Tide gauge records of recent sea-level change along the U.S. east coast have received significant attention within the literature of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Geographic trends in these tide gauge rates are not reduced by a GIA correction based on a commonly adopted radial viscosity profile (characterized, in particular, by a lower mantle viscosity 1−2×10²¹ Pa s), and this has led to speculation that the residual trends reflect contributions from neotectonics or oceanographic processes. While the trends can be significantly reduced by adopting an Earth model with a stiffer lower mantle, such a model appears to be incompatible with independent constraints from post-glacial decay times in Hudson Bay. We use a finite-element model of the GIA process to investigate whether 3-D viscosity variations superimposed onto the “common” radial viscosity profile may provide a route to reconciling the east coast sea-level trends. We find that the specific 3-D structure we impose has little impact on the geographic trends in the GIA-corrected rates. However, we do find that the imposed lateral variations in lower mantle viscosity introduce a nearly uniform upward shift of 0.5 mm/yr in GIA-induced sea-level rates along the U.S. east coast. Thus, inferences of regional (U.S. east coast) sea-level rise due to modern melting of ice reservoirs, based on tide gauge rates corrected using 1-D GIA models, may be significantly biased by this simplifying assumption.