Aurorae during the Maunder Minimum

Summary Based on a comprehensive review of scientific sources from the 17th and 18th century, a new table of auroras for the years 1645–1705 is presented. Comparison of these data with long-time German recordings (latitude 50 to 55 N) demonstrates that the assumption of the Maunder Minimum is not confirmed by the data of the auroras.With 4 Figures     

Climate Shifts during the Last Century

Fluctuations of the land surface areas covered by Koeppen climates are analysed for the 1901 to 1995 period using trends and outliers as indicators of climate shift. Only the extreme climate zones of the global Tropics and of the Tundra (with the highly correlated northern hemisphere temperature) realise statistically significant shifts and outliers. There are nosignificant trends and outliers in the fluctuating ocean-atmosphere patterns (Pacific Decadal and North Atlantic Oscillations) and the highly correlated intermediate climate zones (dry, subtropical and boreal) of the surrounding continents.     

Climatic oscillations during the Precambrian era

A remarkably regular cyclicity with a fundamental period of ~11–12 cycles is preserved in the 680 million year old Elatina formation of South Australia. All but one of the many periods present can be interpreted as resulting from the combined influences of the sunspot cycle and the lunar nodal tide - in particular, beating between these two cycles gives rise to a long period phase alternation. Available paleontological evidence is used to constrain the lunar distance 680 Ma ago, thereby constraining the length of the lunar nodal tide. We then infer from the beat period that the sunspot cycle was 10.8 ± 0.2 years, which is in agreement with independent astronomical evidence suggesting that the sunspot cycle would then have been some 3–10% shorter than it is at present. Although this interpretation is not consistent with the 12.0 year sunspot cycle counted by Williams and Sonett (1985), we demonstrate that unavoidable random errors made in discriminating unusually indistinct varves gives rise to a systematic overcount of varves of this magnitude. The clarity of this evidence for solar and lunar signals in the climate 680 Ma ago lends support to reports of their importance today.National Research Council Postoctoral Associate.     

Changes of cloud microphysical properties during the transition from supercooled to mixed-phase conditions during CIME

A ground-based seeding experiment using carbon dioxide and propane sprayed from pressurized bottles was carried out under supercooled cloud conditions on a small spatial and short time scale. Water vapor deposition on the artificially generated dry ice and propane ice germs as the main ice formation process (nucleation and growth) is consistent with the experimental results. After nucleation, diffusional growth of the ice particles, partly at the expense of evaporating small droplets, was identified during the mixing of the seeding line with the ambient supercooled cloud. Within the seeding plume, ice water contents up to 80% of the total condensed water are observed, although the size of the formed ice particles did not exceed 25 μm. From the changes of the ice and supercooled liquid phase with time under mixed-phase conditions, liquid water content (LWC) evaporation, ice water content (IWC) formation, and ice crystal growth rates are estimated, which are not affected by the artificial nucleation process. Thus, these rates are assessed to be applicable for a growing ice phase of small ice particles in a young mixed-phase cloud, where other growth mechanisms, like riming or aggregation, are negligible.     

Precipitation in the Central Mediterranean during the last century

Summary Monthly precipitation data from 10 stations (Patras, Corfu, Hvar, Trieste, Venice, Florence, Rome, Naples, Catania and Malta) in the Central Mediterranean area are used for a period of 95 years (1894–1988). The homogeneity of these precipitation time series is tested and their statistical characteristics are analysed. An abrupt climatic change is found at Naples and Rome. The application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has yielded three groups of stations where the precipitation data indicate similar fluctuations. Group A includes the stations situated along the coasts of the Ionian and Adriatic seas and the station Naples, while Group B includes the Northern Italian stations and Group C includes the stations at Catania and Malta. In all three groups maximum precipitation was observed during the 1930s. The periodicities of the scores of the significant components have been studied by spectral analysis and significant periodicities of 13.6, 3.5 and 2.2 years were found. Finally, a discussion of the relationships between these precipitation fluctuations and circulation types over the Mediterranean is presented.With 5 Figures     

Insolation over the Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon

The relationship between monsoon cloud cover and incoming solar radiation in the Arabian Sea is examined utilising the available observations of daily mean total cloud amount and solar radiation collected during the summer monsoon. With these data sets, various cloud correction formulae are evaluated. For the estimation of solar radiation, the formulation of Laevastu (1960) is best, with a minimum error of -4%. A multiple polynomial regression equation based on cloud cover and noon altitude of the sun is developed for estimation of daily radiation. The error between estimated and observed radiation is -2%.     

Stability of the sub-cloud layer during the summer monsoon

Stability of the sub-cloud layer has been studied by examining the difference between the temperature of the lifting condensation level (LCL) and that of a meteorological sounding at the LCL. The difference in these temperatures was used as an indicator of the stability of the sub-cloud layer. When the temperature at LCL was warmer/cooler than its surroundings, it indicated the unstable/ adiabatic/stable conditions of the sub-cloud layer. It was observed that when conditions were unstable or adiabatic, there was less monsoon activity. Stable conditions were associated with active monsoon periods. The results are discussed with the enhancement/decrease of convective activity on days of weak/active monsoon conditions.     

1961-2005年鲁南地区汛期降水时空演变特征

使用鲁南地区14个气象站1961-2005年汛期(6-9月)降水资料,应用主成分分析和旋转主成分分析方法、M-K检验、滑动t检验和小波分析了汛期降水的时空演变特征,结果显示:鲁南汛期降水可分为6种雨型和3个分区:东部区、南部区和西北部区.雨型分布具有明显的年代际变化特征,各分区汛期降水极端最少年相同,极端最多年并不完全相同.汛期降水连续偏多(少)年多为2～3年,连续偏多(少)年最长为5年.汛期降水量第一主成分具有显著下降趋势,其变化具有明显的阶段性,1976年发生由多雨期到少雨期的突变.1976年之前存在9 a左右的周期,1976-1989年有6 a左右的周期,1990年代以后为12 a左右的周期.     

Air-sea fluxes over the global oceans during the FGGE year

Summary Vertical fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat have been estimated over the surface of the global oceans. A three-dimensional mesh grid 32 longitude points, 17 latitude points and 365 days from December 1, 1978 to November 30, 1979 is used to obtain seasonal and annual mean values of the surface fluxes. The global climatology shows the seasonal variation, the continental influence, the principal ocean currents and the typical middle latitude (30°–50°) and tropical effects (30°S–30°N). The annual mean of latent heat shows greater flux over the subtropical regions (~ 280 W/m²) than in the polar regions (~ 80 W/m²). On the other hand, the annual mean of sensible heat shows greater flux over the polar regions (~ 100 W/m²) than in the tropics (~ 40 W/m²). Time series analyses of the daily estimates of the surface fluxes show greater energy at high frequencies due to the surface effect; however, the low-frequency spectra show relatively high energy at the 30- to 50-day mode, especially for the middle latitude regions. The 30–50 day filtered data for the surface fluxes, presented in time/latitude cross-sections for the middle latitude regions show a westerly wave propagation with wave numberK = 2 and phase speed of the order of 12 degrees/day from June to August over the southern hemisphere at 55°S.

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Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie beschäftigt sich mit der Einschätzung der vertikalen Impuls-Flüsse und der Flüsse von sensibler und latenter Wärme über der gesamten Meeresoberfläche. Ein dreidimensionales Gitter mit 32 × 17 Punkten und Daten von 365 Tagen (von 1. 12. 1978 bis 30. 11. 1979) wird benutzt, um sowohl Jahreszeiten als auch Jahresmittelwerte der Oberflächenflüsse zu erhalten. Die globale Klimatologie zeigt die jahreszeitlichen Schwankungen, den kontinentalen Einfluß, die wichtigsten Meeresströmungen und die typischen Effekte der mittleren Breiten (30°–50°) und der Tropen (30°S–30°N). Das Jahresmittel latenter Wärme weist größere Flüsse über subtropischen Regionen (ca. 280 W/m²) als über polaren Regionen (ca. 80 W/m²) auf, während andererseits das Jahresmittel sensibler Wärme über Polarregionen (ca. 100 W/m²) größere Flüsse als über den Tropen (ca. 40 W/m²) aufweist. Zeitreihen-Analysen der täglichen Schätzwerte von Oberflächenflüssen deuten auf mehr Energie bei hohen Frequenzen aufgrund des Oberflächeneffekts hin; in jedem Fall zeigen die Niederfrequenz-Spektren relativ hohe Energie in den 30 – 50-Tage-Perioden, besonders für mittlere Breiten. Die über einen Zeitraum von 30 – 50 Tagen gesammelten Daten der Oberflächenflüsse dargestellt in Zeit-Breiten-Querschnitten für mittlere Breiten zeigen von Juni bis August über der südlichen Hemisphäre bei 55°S eine Ausbreitung der westlichen Wellen mit der WellenzahlK = 2 und einer Phasengeschwindigkeit im Ausmaß von 12° pro Tag.

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With 7 Figures     

On the predictability of low-level flow during ALPEX

Summary The growth of error energy from initially uncertain states is a characteristic of global forecast models that is absent or markedly diminished in limited area forecasts. The enhanced regional predictability is presently studied with a limited area boundary layer model applied to a European region centered on the Alps. The results are remarkably insensitive to initial data, and a qualitative explanation of this is sought in terms of Thompson's (1957) and Lorenz's (1969) predictability analysis. It appears that the high predictability of regional models is an artifact of the overwhelming role that the prespecification of external boundaries plays in this problem. In cases that Dirichlet boundary conditions are imposed at the perimeter of the limited forecast region, the larger scale flow components, including most of the advecting flow are determined completely independently of internal dynamics and vorticity fluctuations, a condition that does not promote uncertainty growth.The simplest relaxation of this constraint is accomplished by imposing Neumann boundary conditions with zero gradient of forecast variables at the outer boundary. In this case the boundary values depend completely upon the interior forecast, and there is no theoretical reason to expect that error growth should be limited. Nevertheless, present results show that the only significant forecast errors associated with initial uncertainties in these cases are trapped near external boundaries. An explanation of this phenomenon and its generality is discussed. Our forecast results and analysis of error spread from boundaries suggest that topography may enhance local predictability.Although the predictability of a regional boundary layer model is high with respect to initial errors of even rather large magnitude, the same is not true with respect to large uncertainties in the representation of topography and surface, radiative and dissipative effects. Substantial variations of the parameterization of these processes through changes of the model equations produce boundary layer solution divergence with doubling time scales as short as one day. The uncertainty growth associated with smaller (and more realistic) perturbations of these processes remains to be studied.

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Über die Voraussagbarkeit von bodennahen Strömungen während ALPEX

Zusammenfassung Das Anwachsen der Fehler auf Grund anfänglich unsicherer Zustände ist ein Charakteristikum globaler Vorhersagemodelle. Diese Beschränkung ist nicht vorhanden oder stark vermindert in Vorhersagen für begrenzte Gebiete. Die verbesserte regionale Vorhersagbarkeit wird gegenwärtig an einem Grenzschichtmodell untersucht, welches auf einen Teil Europas mit den Alpen im Zentrum angewandt wird. Die Ergebnisse sind auffallend im empfindlich gegenüber den Anfangsdaten. Eine qualitative Erklärung dafür kann anhand der Vorhersagbarkeitsanalyse von Thompson (1957) und Lorenz (1969) durchgeführt werden. Die hohe Vorhersagbarkeit regionaler Modelle erscheint als Ergebnis der überwältigenden Rolle, die die Vorgabe der äußeren Ränder in diesem Problem spielt. In Fällen, wo Dirichlet-Randbedingungen an der Peripherie des begrenzten Vorhersagegebietes aufgezwungen werden, erfolgt die Bestimmung der großräumigen Strömungskomponenten inklusive des größten Teils der advektierenden Strömung, unabhängig von der internen Dynamik und den Wirbelfluktuationen. Diese Bedingung fördert das Anwachsen von Unsicherheiten nicht.Die einfachste Lockerung dieser Beschränkung wird durch Einführung von Neumann-Randbedingungen mit der Vorhersagevariablen ohne Gradienten an den äußeren Rändern erreicht. In diesem Fall hängen die Randwerte vollständig von der Vorhersage im Inneren ab und es besteht kein theoretischer Grund, eine Beschränkung des Fehlerwachstums zu erwarten. Dennoch zeigen die gegenwärtigen Ergebnisse, daß die einzigen wesentlichen Vorhersagefehler in Zusammenhang mit Anfangsunsicherheiten in diesen Fällen auf den Randbereich beschränkt sind. Eine Erklärung dieses Phänomens und seine Allgemeingültigkeit wird diskutiert. Unsere Vorhersageergebnisse und die Analyse der Fehlerausbreitung von den Rändern aus legt nahe, daß die topographie die lokale Vorhersagbarkeit verbessern kann.Obwohl die Vorhersagbarkeit eines regionalen Grenzschichtmodells in bezug auf die verhältnismäßig großen Anfangsfehler hoch ist, ist dies nicht so in bezug auf die großen Unsicherheiten in der Wiedergabe der Topographie und der Oberfläche sowie Strahlungs- und dissipativer Effekte. Wesentliche Variationen der Parametrisierung dieser Prozesse durch Änderungen der Modellgleichungen erzeugen Divergenzen in den Grenzschichtlösungen, die sich schon in einem Tag verdoppeln. Das Wachstum der Unsicherheit verbunden mit kleineren (und realistischeren) Störungen dieser Prozesse bleibt noch zu untersuchen.

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With 14 Figures     

ENSO influence on Europe during the last centuries

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate not only in the Pacific region and the tropics, but also in the North Atlantic-European area. Studies based on twentieth-century data have found that El Niño events tend to be accompanied in late winter by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index, low temperatures in northeastern Europe and a change in precipitation patterns. However, many questions are open, for example, concerning the stationarity of this relation. Here we study the relation between ENSO and European climate during the past 500 years based on statistically reconstructed ENSO indices, early instrumental station series, and reconstructed fields of surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height. After removing years following tropical volcanic eruptions (which systematically mask the ENSO signal), we find a consistent and statistically significant ENSO signal in late winter and spring. The responses to El Niño and La Niña are close to symmetric. In agreement with studies using twentieth-century data only, the ENSO signal in precipitation is different in fall than in late winter. Moving correlation analyses confirm a stationary relationship between ENSO and late winter climate in Europe during the past 300 years. However, the ENSO signal is modulated significantly by the North Pacific climate. A multi-field cluster analysis for strong ENSO events during the past 300 years yields a dominant pair of clusters that is symmetric and represents the ‘classical’ ENSO effects on Europe.     

2002年全球重大气候事件概述

全球气候仍为异常暖年。赤道中、东太平洋形成新的ENSO暖事件。冬季前期连续大雪严寒席卷了欧洲大部地区，美国南部也受到罕见大雪袭击。南亚东部、中南半岛湄公河三角洲雨季降水频繁，引发严重洪涝灾害。8月，欧洲异常暴雨引发世纪大洪水，多国受灾严重。印度尼西亚、澳大利亚、美国西部、非洲大部降水持续偏少，发生严重干旱。太平洋、大西洋的热带风暴给沿岸国家带来不同程度的灾害。     

Gap flow measurements during the Mesoscale Alpine Programme

Summary The lowest pass through the Alpine crest, the Brenner Pass, was heavily instrumented with ground-based and air-borne in-situ and remote sensors during the Special Observation Period (SOP) of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) in the fall of 1999 to study gap flow. The main objectives were to study the combined effects of changes of terrain height and changes of width in altering the flow characteristics, to investigate the coupling of the gap flow to the flow aloft, and to provide high-density measurements in the along- and cross-gap directions.Gap flows occurred during one third of the 70-day SOP, a frequency above the long term average. Gap flows took place with and without accompanying cross-barrier flow and with and without a capping inversion. A case study demonstrates the hydraulic jump-like features that occurred in gap flow on 30 October 1999 and illustrates the types of data available for further analyses.     

新元古代地球气候研究进展

新元古代曾发生过强烈的全球性冰川作用,本文回顾了新元古代晚期全球性冰川作用存在的证据及其特点,论述了新元古代冰期产生的原因,综述了一些代表性的“雪球地球”模型并探讨了“雪球地球”对早期生物演化的影响,最后对未来“雪球地球”研究趋势进行了展望.     

Pressure drag on the Dinaric Alps during the ALPEX SOP

Summary During the ALPEX SOP (March–April, 1982), microbarographic measurements were conducted on the Northern Adriatic as a part of research on the Bora. In this paper the measured pressure field around the Dinaric Alps is used to compute the total pressure drag vectors using Archimedes law.The 3-hourly temporal variations of these drag vectors is examined for different synoptic events. During the anticyclonic calm weather period at the end of March and beginning of April there is evidence of a divrnal drag variation. Regardless of magnitude, the pressure drag vectors seem to be aligned almost perpendicular to the main mountain ridge. During synoptic scale flow developments the drag direction change usually appears steady and slow (1–2 days). However during an exceptionally strong frontal passage (8/9 April) this time scale was much shorter (3–6 hours). The maximae of the pressure drag during SOP are always connected with Bora periods and the magnitudes of the drag values indicate that during these events there is a major sink of atmospheric momentum over the Dinaric Alpine region.With 11 Figures     

Nocturnal stratiform cloudiness during the West African monsoon

Summary An analysis of METEOSAT satellite images and synoptic reports from Parakou, Benin suggests that those nights that lack deep convection during the West African monsoon are often either completely clear or completely overcast at low levels. Using radiosonde observations gathered at Parakou during the IMPETUS field campaign of the summer of 2002 and ECMWF operational analyses, the composite structure of the atmosphere for both cloudy and clear nights is presented. Cloudy nights are found to occur when turbulent processes result in large-scale speed convergence in the boundary layer and a positive net moisture flux convergence. Conversely, the clear conditions occur when a nocturnal inversion decouples the boundary layer from the surface. The cloudy and clear conditions are also shown to be related to large-scale changes in the configurations of the African Easterly Jet and the Tropical Easterly Jet, although the nature of this relationship remains unclear.     

Circulation characteristics over the Himalayas during winter season

Summary ?During winter season, atmospheric systems, which traverse from west to east interact with the Himalayan massif and produce widespread rainfall over North India. In this study, we made an endeavor to examine the mean circulation features and large-scale budgets of kinetic energy, heat and moisture over Himalayas and the adjoining domain for winter season. The time-mean circulation is bifurcated into stable mean and transient eddy parts and examined the mean component of the circulation. The uninitialized daily analyses of European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for five winter seasons (1986–90) comprising December, January and February (DJF) have been used for the purpose. We noticed certain zones of strong activity over Iran, Afghanistan, and West China regions during winter season. These are characterized by intense vertical motions, cyclonic vorticity and adiabatic generation of kinetic energy. The features noticed over these zones include strong horizontal convergence of heat and moisture. These zones are further characterized by massive adiabatic conversion of available potential energy to kinetic energy. These features are conducive for the growth of atmospheric systems, which traverse over the zones and produce precipitation subsequently. Received November 16, 2000; revised February 5, 2002     

1998年全球重大气候事件概述

１９９８年,世界大部地区继续偏暖,全球平均气温再创历史新纪录。由于受厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜现象的影响,许多地区气候发生异常,出现了大范围的暴雨洪水和高温干旱天气,中国、孟加拉国和中美洲诸国遭受世纪性洪涝灾害,全球经济损失超过历史最高纪录。冬季,全球大部地区气候异常暖和;年初,北美大陆遭受暴风雪袭击;春季,墨西哥、印度尼西亚因干旱引发严重的森林大火;入夏之后,热浪天气席卷印度、欧洲各国,美国许多地区受到系列龙卷风的袭击;初秋,欧洲大陆又出现了寒流天气,加勒比海地区秋季连遭强飓风袭击