Spatial pattern analysis using hybrid models: an application to the Hellenic seismicity

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters and the spatial distribution of their epicentres generally shows diverse interaction structures at different spatial scales. In this paper, we use a multi-scale point pattern model to describe the main seismicity in the Hellenic area over the last 10 years. We analyze the interaction between events and the relationship with geological information of the study area, using hybrid models as proposed by Baddeley et al. (2013). In our analysis, we find two competing suitable hybrid models, one with a full parametric structure and the other one based on nonparametric kernel estimators for the spatial inhomogeneity.     

A procedure to estimate the probability distribution of recurrence times in the west-northwestern Hellenic arc

The determination of the probability distribution of recurrence times is the most important problem in the calculation of long-term conditional probabilities for the recurrence of large and great earthquakes.The principle of maximum entropy in conjunction with a goodness-of-fit test (chi-square or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) may be employed to obtain estimates of these densities using recurrence data for some seismic regions.Four different distributions are characterized by the property of maximum entropy, as possible laws for recurrence times of the largest earthquakes: uniform, exponential, Gaussian and log-normal. To discriminate among these different probability distributions we use the probability theory and the chi-square test to check the goodness-of-fit to the distribution of recurrence time of shocks of magnitude 6.5 and largest occurred in the west-northwestern zone of the Hellenic arc from 1791 to 1983.It is found that the recurrence times data for the west-northwestern zone of the Hellenic arc cannot be represented by the uniform and the Gaussian probability densities. The recurrence times data for the west-northwestern zone of the Hellenic arc can be described accurately by the exponential and log-normal probability densities, which were predicted from the principle of maximum entropy. In other words, the principle of maximum entropy does not necessarily lead to a unique solution. In turn, the mathematical properties of these distributions could be used to derive different physical properties of the earthquake process in the west-northwestern zone of the Hellenic arc.     

长宁地区复杂地震活动的力学成因分析

长宁地区地震活动复杂,发生在长宁背斜轴部的长宁M_S6.0地震及其后续中强余震的震源机制与相距仅十几公里的南部向斜区内的中强震具有显著差异;这种差异仅仅是由于发震断层构造不同所造成的,还是孕育地震的应力场本身也存在局部变化？为了回答这一问题,本文在通过双差层析成像反演修正小震定位和波速结构的基础上,利用小震综合震源机制解方法获取了长宁地区地壳应力场的精细结构,并据此分析了其与中强震震源机制解的力学一致性.研究发现,长宁地区地壳应力场的最大主应力轴在整个区域内基本都处于近水平状态,其方位虽由北向南发生了一定角度的顺时针旋转,但也基本保持为近东西向;相比之下,应力类型在长宁背斜轴部和南部向斜区之间存在显著差异——前者为逆冲型,而后者为走滑型.同时,这两个局部区域的应力场与对应区域内的中强震震源机制解的吻合度较高,但与非对应区域内的中强震震源机制解的吻合度较低,甚至在力学上是相抵触的,表明区域应力场的局部改变是长宁地区复杂地震活动的必要力学基础.通过岩石力学估算,本文认为岩石泊松比的横向差异很可能是造成这种应力场局部改变的主要成因.此外,本文还对长宁M_S6.0地震序列的发震构造进行了探讨,认为长宁背斜轴部在6~9 km深度内存在基底断层,而正是这种基底断层在区域应力场作用下发生错动导致了长宁M_S6.0地震序列的发生.

     

An unusual zone of seismic coupling in the Bonin arc: The 1972 Hachijo-Oki earthquakes and related seismicity

The 1972 February and December Hachijo-Oki earthquakes (M _s=7.3 and 7.4), in the northernmost part of the Izu-Bonin subduction zone, are the only major events (M _s>7.0) in the Bonin arc for the past 80 years. Relocation of the hypocenters, using one smaller event having a wellconstrained focal depth as a master event, shows that the depth of the February event is 10 km shallower than that of the December event. We have determined the rupture process for both events by minimizing the error in waveform between observed and synthetic seismograms. Although the number of available stations are limited, the depth range of the major energy release for the December event extends deeper than for the February one. The rupture propagated up-dip for both events. It is likely that the rupture zone of the two events overlapped, and that the December event ruptured the deeper part. This suggestion is consistent with the observation that the aftershock zones of both events overlap with that of the December event shifted landward. The waveforms of the December event have a smaller high frequency component than those of the February event, suggesting that the stress at the thrust zone became more uniform or reduced after the February event.No thrust type smaller event occurred near the rupture zone. Instead, theP-axes of smaller events are parallel to the dip of the slab and theirT-axes dip to the southwest. Focal depths of these events estimated byP-wave forward modeling are generally between 40–50 km and located beneath the thrust zone. We thus interpret them as the events within the Pacific slab near the zone ruptured by the two major events. The stress concentration around the rupture zone of the major events is suggested to have triggered these slab events. After the occurrence of the large events, the slab events are concentrated near the deeper portion of the rupture zone. These events may have been caused by the loading of the down-dip compressional stress near the down-dip end of the rupture zone due to the rupture. The occurrence of the doublet of large earthquakes and a number of down-dip compressional events beneath their rupture zones in a shallow portion of the subducting slab indicates an unusual zone of seismic coupling in the Bonin arc, most of which is seismically quiescent.     

Historical seismicity near Chagos: a complex deformation zone in the equatorial Indian Ocean

Over the last twenty years, Chagos Bank has a seismicity rate disproportionate to its supposed intraplate location. Earthquake relocation also shows a high seismicity rate in pre-WWSSN time (1912–1963), with seven events located off of the Central Indian Ridge, including large events in 1912 (M = 6.8) and 1944 (M = 7.2). This study uses the moment variance technique, a systematic search for the mechanism which best fits P, PP, SH, Love and Rayleigh amplitudes, to determine the focal mechanisms of two pre-WWSSN earthquakes. A test with a recent event of known mechanism demonstrates that accurate focal parameter determination is possible even when only a few good records are available. Moment variance analysis shows a thrust faulting mechanism for the 1944 event, northeast of Chagos Bank near the Chagos-Laccadive ridge, and a strike-slip focal mechanism for a smaller 1957 event west of Chagos Bank. The 1944 event, one of the largest oceanic “intraplate” earthquakes known (moment 1.4 × 10²⁷ dyne-cm), indicates that the Chagos seismicity reflects not an isolated occurrence of normal faulting as previously thought, but rather regional tectonic deformation extending northeast of Chagos Bank and including thrust, normal and strike-slip events. This seismicity and previously studied seismicity near the Ninetyeast Ridge and Central Indian Basin suggest a broad zone of deformation stretching across the equatorial Indian Ocean. This zone contains all known magnitude seven oceanic “intraplate” earthquakes not associated with subduction zones or continental margins, suggesting that elsewhere such extensive deformation occurs only along plate boundaries. This study proposes that a slow, diffuse plate boundary extends east from the Central Indian Ridge to the Ninetyeast Ridge and north to the Sumatra Trench. A recent plate motion study confirms this boundary and suggests that it separates the Australian plate from a single Indo-Arabian plate.     

Study of seismicity in the NW Himalaya and adjoining regions using IMS network

The Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) of the International Data Center (IDC) has been used in order to investigate the seismicity of the Northwest Himalaya and its neighboring region for the time period June 1999 to March 2015 within the geographical coordinates 25–40° N latitude and 65–85° E longitude. We have used a very precisely located earthquake dataset recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS) Network containing 7,583 events with body wave magnitudes from 2.5 to 6.3. The study area has been subdivided into six regions based on the Flinn-Engdahl (F-E) seismic and geographical regionalization scheme, which was used as the region classifications of the International Data Center catalog. The examined region includes NW India, Pakistan, Nepal, Xizang, Kashmir, and Hindukush. For each region, Magnitudes of completeness (Mc) and Gutenberg-Richter (GR) recurrence parameters (a and b values) have been estimated. The Gutenberg-Richter analysis is preceded by an overview of the seismotectonics of the study area. The obtained Mc values vary from 3.5 to 3.9. The lower value of Mc was found mainly in Xizang region whereas the higher Mc threshold is evident in Pakistan region. However, the b values vary from 1.19 to 1.48. The lowest b value is recorded in Xizang region, which is mostly related to the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) fault, whereas the highest b values are recorded in NW India and Kashmir regions, which are mostly related to the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) fault. The REB for the selected period has been compared to the most renowned bulletin of global seismicity, namely that issued by the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). A study of 4,821 events recorded by USGS in the study region indicates that about 36 % of seismic events were missed and the catalog is considered as complete for events with magnitudes ≥4.0. However, both a and b values are obviously higher than those of IMS catalog. The a and b parameters in the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude–frequency relationship have been utilized to forecast the probability of future earthquakes of different magnitudes and returned periods (recurrence intervals).     

Estimates of site seismicity rates using ill-defined macroseismic data

A new approach to the problem of site seismic hazard analysis is proposed, based on intensity data affected by uncertainties. This approach takes into account the ordinal and discrete character of intensities, trying to avoid misleading results due to the assumption that intensity can be treated as a real number (continuous distribution estimators, attenuation relationships, etc.). The proposed formulation is based on the use of a distribution function describing, for each earthquake, the probability that site seismic effects can be described by each possible intensity value. In order to obtain site hazard estimates where local data are lacking, the dependence of this distribution function with the distance from the macroseismic epicenter and with epicentral intensity is examined. A methodology has been developed for the purpose of combining such probabilities and estimating site seismicity rates which takes into account the effect of uncertainties involved in this kind of analysis. An application of this approach is described and discussed.     

Non-extensive statistical physics approach to fault population distribution. A case study from the southern Hellenic arc (Central Crete)

Fault population statistics play a key role in the understanding of any statistical seismicity approach. In the present work a non-extensive statistical physics approach is formulated and tested for the local fault length distribution. The approach is composed of the following parts: (i) Tsallis entropy, S _q , (ii) maximization of the Tsallis entropy under appropriate constrains, and (iii) derivation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the fault length population. This model is tested using fault length data from the Central Crete graben in front of the Hellenic arc and estimated a thermodynamic q parameter equal to 1.16, which supports the conclusion that the fault system in Central Crete graben is a sub-extensive one.     

Shallow seismicity, stress distribution and crustal deformation pattern in the Andaman-West Sunda arc and Andaman Sea, northeastern Indian Ocean

Shallow seismicity and available source mechanisms in the Andaman–westSunda arc and Andaman sea region suggest distinct variation in stressdistribution pattern both along and across the arc in the overriding plate.Seismotectonic regionalisation indicates that the region could be dividedinto eight broad seismogenic sources of relatively homogeneousdeformation. Crustal deformation rates have been determined for each oneof these sources based on the summation of moment tensors. The analysisshowed that the entire fore arc region is dominated by compressive stresseswith compression in a mean direction of N23^°, and the rates ofseismic deformation velocities in this belt decrease northward from 5.2± 0.65 mm/yr near Nias island off Sumatra and 1.12 ±0.13 mm/yr near Great Nicobar islands to as much as 0.4 ±0.04 mm/yr north of 8^°N along Andaman–Nicobar islandsregion. The deformation velocities indicate, extension of 0.83 ±0.05 mm/yr along N343^° and compression of 0.19 ±0.01 mm/yr along N73^° in the Andaman back arc spreadingregion, extension of 0.18 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N125^° andcompression of 0.16 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N35^° in NicobarDeep and west Andaman fault zone, compression of 0.84 ±0.12 mm/yr N341^° and extension of 0.77 ± 0.11 mm/yralong N72^° within the transverse tectonic zone in the Andamantrench, N-S compression of 3.19 ± 0.29 mm/yr and an E-Wextension of 1.24 ± 0.11 mm/yr in the Semangko fault zone ofnorth Sumatra. The vertical deformation suggests crustal thinning in theAndaman sea and crustal thickening in the fore arc and Semangko faultzones. The apparent stresses calculated for all major events range between0.1–10 bars and the values increase with increasing seismic moment.However, the apparent stress estimates neither indicate any significantvariation with faulting type nor display any variation across the arc, incontrast to the general observation that the fore arc thrust events showhigher stress levels in the shallow subduction zones. It is inferred that theoblique plate convergence, partial subduction of 90^°E Ridge innorth below the Andaman trench and the active back arc spreading are themain contributing factors for the observed stress field within the overridingplate in this region.     

The seismicity research in the sub-regions of Chinese mainland using strain accumula-ting and releasing model

Introduction Lots of researches suggest that the seismicity is irregular in the space and unsteady on the time. The former behaves as that the earthquakes usually are distributed in bands or zones, the latter behaves as that the seismicity has the active and placid alternant stages (high and low). Analyzing the seismicity of Chinese mainland shows that the distribution of strong earthquakes indicates different distributing pictures in space in different periods. According to strain releasing …     

Comparison of seismicity declustering methods using a probabilistic measure of clustering

We present a new measure of earthquake clustering and explore its use for comparing the performance of three different declustering methods. The advantage of this new clustering measure over existing techniques is that it can be used for non-Poissonian background seismicity and, in particular, to compare the results of declustering algorithms where different background models are used. We use our approach to study inter-event times between successive earthquakes using earthquake catalog data from Japan and southern California. A measure of the extent of clustering is introduced by comparing the inter-event time distributions of the background seismicity to that of the whole observed seismicity. Theoretical aspects of the clustering measure are then discussed with respect to the Poissonian and Weibull models for the background inter-event time distribution. In the case of a Poissonian background, the obtained clustering measure shows a decrease followed by an increase, defining a V-shaped trend, which can be explained by the presence of short- and long-range correlation in the inter-event time series. Three previously proposed declustering methods (i.e., the methods of Gardner and Knopoff, Reasenberg, and Zhuang et al.) are used to obtain an approximation of the residual “background” inter-event time distribution in order to apply our clustering measure to real seismicity. The clustering measure is then estimated for different values of magnitude cutoffs and time periods, taking into account the completeness of each catalog. Plots of the clustering measure are presented as clustering attenuation curves (CACs), showing how the correlation decreases when inter-event times increase. The CACs demonstrate strong clustering at short inter-event time ranges and weak clustering at long time ranges. When the algorithm of Gardner and Knopoff is used, the CACs show strong correlation with a weak background at the short inter-event time ranges. The fit of the CACs using the Poissonian background model is successful at short and intermediate inter-event time ranges, but deviates at long ranges. The observed deviation shows that the residual catalog obtained after declustering remains non-Poissonian at long time ranges. The apparent background fraction can be estimated directly from the CAC fit. The CACs using the algorithms of Reasenberg and Zhuang et al. show a relatively similar behavior, with a time correlation decreasing more rapidly than the CACs of Gardner and Knopoff for shorter time ranges. This study offers a novel approach for the study of different types of clustering produced as a result of various hypotheses used to account for different backgrounds.     

Re-appraisal of seismicity and seismotectonics in the north-eastern Algeria Part I: Review of historical seismicity

As large destructive seismic events are not frequent in Algeria, anexhaustive knowledge of the historical seismicity is required to have arealistic view of seismic hazard in this part of the world. This research workpresents a critical reappraisal of seismicity in the north-eastern Algeria forseismotectonic and seismic hazard purposes. This part of work focuses onthe seismicity of pre-1900 period for the area under consideration[33^°N-38^°N, 4^°E-9.5^°E]. By going back tothe available documentary sources and evaluating and analysing the eventsin geographical, cultural and historical context, it has been possible toidentify 111 events, from 1850–1899, which are not reported in therecent Algerian catalogue. Several spurious events, reported in standardlistings, have been deleted and nine unknown events have been discovered.It is quite clear that macroseismic information derived from press reportsand published documents in Algeria, under certain conditions, is veryincomplete, even for destructive earthquakes, located in the countrysideaway from communication centres. One of the reasons for this iscensorship, noticeable during the colonisation period. Critical analysis ofnewly collected information has allowed the determination and/or theimprovement of the macroseismic parameters of each event, such aslocation, maximum epicentral intensity and magnitude to produce anearthquake catalogue as homogeneous and complete as the available data,for the zone under study. The criteria used in this research are explainedand eight historical earthquakes have been the subject of retrospectivemacroseismic field construction.The investigation of historical earthquakes is one of the most important taskin studying seismotectonic for seismic hazard evaluation purposes.     

The Troodos ophiolitic complex was probably formed in an island arc

The Troodos ophiolitic complex in Cyprus has been widely regarded as a fragment of oceanic crust that was created in a mid-oceanic ridge. However, about one-third of the analyzed rocks of the lower pillow lavas and sheeted complex in it follows a calc-alkalic trend. This strongly suggests that the massif was created as a basaltic volcano in an island arc with a relatively thin oceanic-type crust rather than in a mid-oceanic ridge. Other chemical features and the structure of the massif are also consistent with an island arc origin. Some other ophiolitic complexes also appear to have been formed in island arcs.     

地震活动性统计学研究方法的若干进展与讨论

对统计学方法在地震活动性研究中的部分重要成果、最新研究进展进行了简要地回顾。重点介绍了余震衰减关系和震级、频度关系的相关研究成果及地震活动过程随机模拟等的发展趋势。     

Some seismicity regularities of the Caucasus

Some aspects of the seismicity the Caucasus are considered based on the earthquake catalog from 1962 to 2011, which includes data on about 40000 seismic events with magnitudes from ?1.0 to 7.5. Correlation equations between the energy classes and magnitudes of the earthquakes are calculated. Interannual changes in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and seasonal cycles of seismic energy release are revealed.     

Temporal characteristics of seismicity in the Alborz and Zagros regions of Iran, using a multifractal approach

Multifractal characteristics of the temporal distribution of earthquakes in the Zagros and Alborz regions of Iran were analyzed using the fixed-mass method. The generalized multifractal dimensions, singularity spectrum, mass exponents, and the asymmetry factor were calculated for these regions. The results indicate that the temporal distributions of earthquakes in the Zagros and Alborz regions are likely to be chaotic and have multifractal structures. Although both of the study areas show heterogeneous structures, the D_q and f(α_q) spectra for the Zagros region indicate that densely populated time domains are as heterogeneous as the sparsely populated ones. On the other hand, the multifractal spectra of the Alborz region show that the densely clustered time domains are more heterogeneous than the sparsely populated ones. Such a multifractal spectrum shows that there are many more sparsely populated time domains (i.e. seismic gaps) within the multifractal structure than densely populated ones.     

On the testing of seismicity models

Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible applications to hazard analysis. We arrive at the conclusion that model testing can be made more efficient by focusing on some integral characteristics of the seismicity distribution. This can be achieved either in the likelihood framework but with economical and physically reasonable coarsening of the phase space or by choosing a suitable measure of closeness between empirical and model seismicity rate in this space.     

Blasting-induced seismicity in the European part of Russia

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The paper focuses on the increasing contribution of blasting operations to the energy balance of seismic processes. Although the progress in blasting...     

利用单键群分析方法研究川滇地区近年来的地震活动

单键群(SLC)方法是分析地震活动性的一个有用的工具,根据SLC特征参量的时间滑移计算,对川滇地区的地震活动性特征和地震活动趋势进行了总结分析。地震活动事实表明, SLC分析及有关的SLC特征参量可以有效地反映出地震活动的特征,并可用来进行地震趋势分析。研究认为,川滇地区的地震活动可能将较强。     

The seismicity of the Reykjanes Ridge

The distribution of earthquakes along the Reykjanes ridge is highly variable but follows a pattern which has remained essentially unchanged for the past fifty years. A number of possible interpretations are discussed.