清洁发展机制（CDM）造林再造林项目碳汇成本研究——以CDM广西珠江流域治理再造林项目为例

以清洁发展机制（CDM）广西珠江流域治理再造林项目为例,对项目及其5种造林模式临时核证减排量（temporary certified emission reduction,缩写为tCER）和长期核证减排量（long-term certified emission reduction,缩写为lCER）成本的动态变化进行了初步研究。结果表明：从项目期初到期末,整个项目及5种造林模式人工林的tCER成本均逐渐降低,其中项目成本由第一承诺期末的40.33 ￥/t CO₂降至最后承诺期末的13.34 ￥/t CO₂;lCER成本先降低后升高,在第一承诺期末均降至最小值,项目成本由第一承诺期末的40.33 ￥/t CO₂增加至最后承诺期末的105.27 ￥/t CO₂;各造林模式tCER和lCER成本均以枫香+杉木、枫香+马尾松较高,马尾松+荷木、马尾松+栎类较低,桉树最低;贴现率对项目tCER和lCER、桉树tCER、枫香+杉木lCER成本影响均较大,而对马尾松+栎类tCER和lCER成本影响均较小;对桉树一个轮伐期内的tCER成本进行了敏感性分析,单位面积碳贮量的变化对其影响较大;考虑木材收益时,项目期末tCER净现值为13.11 ￥/t CO₂,从中反映了该CDM项目实施是可行的。     

黄河断流对三角洲土地利用格局的影响

黄河三角洲90%以上的工农业及生活用水依赖黄河，1997年黄河山东段全面断流226天，对黄河三角洲社会、经济及生态环境的各个方面都产生了直接或间接的影响。基于3S技术，以1987年、1997年和2002年三期卫星遥感影像数据为基础，从土地利用的法观角度出发，分析黄河严重断流对黄河两侧10km缓冲区内土地利用格局的影响。对比分析表明黄河三角洲的面积增长与黄河下游来水量密切相关;2.缓冲区内盐地滅蓬、纯芦苇湿地、沟渠和农田四类土地利用类型均在1997年面积最大;3.柽柳+碱蓬、極柳+芦苇的混生群落、河道、养殖场及滩涂五类土地利用类型的面积在1997年最小;4.缓冲区内其它7类土地利用类型的面积均随时间表现为稳定的增长趋势。总体看来，黄河两侧缓冲区内的土地利用类型随着黄河来水量的变化，相应地呈现出一定的规律。     

重庆主城区暴雨强度公式推算和应用探讨

根据重庆市主城区沙坪坝、北碚、巴南、渝北站1981-2013年逐分钟降水资料,基于年最大值和年多个样法两种数据采样方式,采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布、耿贝尔分布和指数分布曲线拟合,分别编制了暴雨强度公式。结果表明:年最大值法取样推求的暴雨强度值在10 a以下重现期部分小于年多个样法,在11-30 a重现期部分两者差别小,在31-100 a重现期部分年最大值法大于年多个样法。4站均以年多个样法取样推求的暴雨强度公式误差最小。巴南和北碚选用1981-2013年、渝北与沙坪坝选用1991-2013年降水数据根据年多个样法取样采用指数分布曲线拟合推算的暴雨强度公式。通过分析各历时降水量空间分布特征,划定了新编暴雨强度公式在重庆主城区的适用范围。     

玉米潜在产量与积温关系模型及其应用

依据于物质积累的基本规律,用包括早、中、晚熟和紧凑、平展两类株型的10个玉米杂交种在北京、延庆、泰安、公主岭、石河子5个不同气候类型地区的试验观察数据,模拟出玉米的标准生长函数W=[1+e~(3.56-13.52μ)]~(-1)。据此建立潜在生物量与品种所需积温的关系:B_(max)/kg·亩~(-1) =100+1.1∑T_m。用此模式估算了不同熟性品种的潜在产量,讨论了模拟结果在气候变化影响评价中的应用。     

北京旅游类型多元发展下的气象服务需求综述

基于北京各类旅游景区的发展现状及特色,分析了北京旅游类型多元发展下的气象服务需求。研究表明,对经典景区而言,气象服务需求视主要游览内容不同需分别提供植物观赏期预测、特色景观预报等服务。对各专题类旅游而言,规避灾害性天气及次生灾害是首要需求;其次则需要精细化的短临天气预报和短期气候预测服务;最后需要根据各特色游的主题,提供特色服务,包括改进优化现有气象产品,合理化推荐子项目等。而两类旅游对气象服务需求的差异主要源自两方面:1)旅游组织者应对气象灾害的不同理念及手段;2)受旅游目的性影响的游客风险认知水平的差异。     

哈尔滨市非冰雪季旅游气候舒适度分析

根据哈尔滨市地面观测站35 a来的基本气象观测数据,首先采用AHP-Delphi法提取出了气温,风速,湿度以及着衣四个主要评价因素。然后运用线性趋势法、聚类分析法等方法对温湿指数、风寒指数、着衣指数以及人体舒适度指数进行计算分析,最后对哈尔滨市的非冰雪季旅游气候舒适度进行评估,研究结果表明:温湿指数、风寒指数以及人体舒适度指数35 a的月值均呈现单峰值的变化趋势,峰值出现在7月。哈尔滨市在5月、6月、9月和10月的气候舒适度最好,即夏初秋初是哈尔滨市非冰雪季旅游气候适宜期。     

达州主城区暴雨强度总公式计算及对比分析

本文根据达县站1961~2013年共53 a降水资料,采用年多个样法和年最大值法两种取样方式,用皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布、指数分布和耿贝尔分布等三种曲线拟合样本,得到理论上的雨强-历时-重现期表(i-t-p三联表),再用最小二乘法和高斯牛顿法求解达州主城区的暴雨强度总公式参数,并对比分析了两种取样下总公式的计算结果。结果表明,年多个样法在低重现期明显高于年最大值法,而在高重现期高历时下,年最大值法则明显偏高。     

宁夏旅游气象服务效益评估和服务需求调查

利用专家评估法对2010年宁夏旅游气象服务效益和需求进行评估调查,结果表明:宁夏旅游气象服务效益贡献率为0.203％,效益值为1075.9万元;高敏感气象条件有降雨、降雪、风力、道路结冰、沙尘天气、雾霾、积雪深度、闪电雷暴等;高影响气象要素临界值和有效预报时段因要素和典型服务环节的不同而有所差异;旅游气象服务产品类型包括灾害防御措施科普产品和以基本天气预报和灾害天气预警为主的精细化旅游气象专题服务产品两类,形式仍主要以文字为主,达到74％,发布途经呈手机短信、网络、专用系统、电子邮件等渠道的多元化格局.     

基于县域尺度的汉中市暴雨灾害旅游风险评估

基于灾害系统、公共安全三角形模型等理论,以汉中市11个县区为研究对象,将暴雨灾害旅游风险作为一个复合系统,选取致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力四个指标,通过引入距离函数概念,运用层次分析-熵权组合赋权法,构建了涵盖14个因子的暴雨灾害旅游风险评估模型,系统分析了汉中市11个县区的暴雨灾害旅游风险程度,并据此开展了风险区划。结果表明：宁强、镇巴和佛坪县暴雨灾害旅游风险等级处于1级,为高风险区域;略阳和勉县次之,风险等级处于2级;南郑、洋县风险等级为3级;城固、留坝、西乡和汉台风险等级4级,为低风险区。该结果可作为划定汉中市暴雨灾害旅游风险区划及绘制风险区划图的依据。     

内蒙古草地类型与生物量气候区划

根据内蒙古自治区1961—2007年107个气象站资料,利用梯度距离平方反比法,推算出内蒙古自治区湿润度的千米网格数据图形。结合内蒙古实际植被类型的分布规律,确定了内蒙古5种草原类型和6个产草量等级的气候区划指标。利用得到的气候区划指标,对湿润度栅格数据进行分级,绘制了内蒙古自治区天然草原草地类型和产草量地理分布的区划图。应用2007—2009年65个野外考察样点数据和2004—2008年49个生态观测站点的数据,对气候区划结果进行了可靠性验证,分析表明:内蒙古草原类型区划结果和实际的草原类型分布具有较好的一致性,可以用于内蒙古草原气候区划。针对各分区进行评述,并提出了合理布局的对策建议,研究结果可为内蒙古自治区农业结构调整及畜牧业生产优化布局提供参考。     

气候变化对厦门旅游业影响的模糊综合评价

以厦门市旅游业为研究样本,采用系统分析,围绕气候变化对旅游业发展的影响,建立气候变化对旅游业发展影响的评价指标体系,利用层次分析法对各指标因子进行权重测算,再利用模糊综合评价法进行评价,将气候变化对厦门旅游业的影响进行定量分析。结果显示,气候变化对旅游业的影响的隶属度最大值为0.309,是较强的。研究可以明确将旅游业发展过程中受气候变化影响的各个方面,按照受影响程度高低进行划分,从而可以有效指导旅游业相关从业者对风险进行归类,进而协调各方利益,有针对性地发展旅游业,从而实现旅游资源的长期利用和旅游业的可持续发展。     

江西常见树种失水率分析

2006年秋季,对江西18种常见树种的枝、叶每天进行失水率和含水率的测定,建立了失水率与温度关系的数学模型,分析了树种间、枝和叶间含水率和失水率的差异,研究了失水率与时间的变化关系,并得出了不同树种的枝条失水率稳定在11 d,树叶稳定在8 d。综合含水率和失水率2个指标,认为木荷、马尾松、珊瑚树、鹅掌楸、油茶是较好的防火树种。     

CO2浓度与土壤水分胁迫对红松和云杉苗木影响的试验研究

全球气候变化对植物影响研究的主要内容是由于大气中CO2 浓度升高导致的气温升高和土壤干旱化对植物的影响。文中利用人工气候室试验研究了高CO2 浓度和土壤水分胁迫对红松和云杉的影响 ,结果表明 :CO2 浓度升高使红松和云杉生长量的增长率提高 ,土壤水分胁迫使树木生长量的增长率下降 ,且CO2 浓度升高的正效应要小于土壤水分胁迫的负效应。CO2 浓度升高使树木叶水势增大 ,土壤水分胁迫使树木叶水势减小 ,这从植物生理的角度说明了CO2 浓度变化和土壤水分胁迫对树木的影响机理 ,且在轻度干旱的情况下 ,高CO2 浓度使树木叶水势增大 ,但随着土壤干旱程度的加重 ,树木的叶水势逐渐减小。同时 ,从实验结果还可以看出 ,虽然大气中CO2 浓度和土壤湿度变化对苗木的影响显著存在 ,但与农作物和牧草等植物相比 ,这种影响仍要小得多。     

The Impact of the Anomalous Weather of 1995 on the U.K. Economy

This study assesses selected impacts on tertiary activities of the anomalously hot summer of 1995 and warm period from November 1994 through October 1995 in the U.K. Over this period, the mean Central England temperature was 1.6 °C above the 1961–1990 normal, representing the highest mean 12-month temperature since the start of the Central England temperature record in 1659. The study is distinguished by its breadth of coverage, for it includes tertiary sectors and activities. Although impacts in tertiary activities are often not included in assessments of the potential impacts of climatic change, many of these activities are very important to the U.K. economy, and therefore even a small perturbation in output due to a weather extreme can have significant implications for the economy as a whole. The activities and sectors studied include energy consumption, retailing and manufacturing, construction and buildings, tourism, health, human behaviour, and fires. Both negative and positive impacts were incurred within most sectors. Net positive impacts (to the general public) were found convincingly for energy consumption and health, and clear negative impacts for buildings insurance and fires. Sectors which show clear differences in their response to winter and summer warm anomalies are energy consumption, tourism and health (greater sensitivity to winter anomalies) and buildings insurance and fires (greater sensitivity to summer anomalies). Changes in sensitivity to climate extremes may have occurred over time, and a comparison of impacts of the 1995 anomalous weather with the unusually warm dry period of 1975–1976 is approached for several series.     

银川河东机场小样本雷暴分类客观预报方法研究

利用2000—2016年欧洲中心再分析资料、探空及地面自动气象站观测资料,根据天气过程的强度和对应物理量,分别对银川河东机场雷暴伴随大风、降水等不同天气现象类别进行定量化转换,采用峰度偏度系数、χ~2以及Q-Q图3种方法对定量转换的数据进行正态性检验,结果表明:按天气现象分类的样本服从正态分布,未分类样本基本服从。利用逐步回归、多元回归、非线性回归、BP人工神经元网络以及支持向量机5种方法,分别建立了雷暴现象与强度预报模型。结果表明:BP网络以及SVM对天气现象的预报能力较强;分类逐步、多元以及非线性回归模型分别对弱雨、强雨以及大风和降雨同时发生的天气强度预报效果较好。并在此基础上通过最优分析设计了河东机场不同种类雷暴天气定性和定量预报相结合的业务系统。     

Selective drought-induced decline of pine species in southeastern Spain

The negative impacts of severe drought on the growth and vigor of tree species and their relationship with forest decline have not been properly evaluated taking into account the differential responses to such stress of trees, sites and species. We evaluated these responses by quantifying the changes in radial growth of plantations of four pine species (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra, Pinus pinaster, Pinus halepensis) which showed distinct decline and defoliation levels in southeastern Spain. We used dendrochronological methods, defoliation records, linear mixed models of basal area increment and dynamic factor analysis to quantify the responses of trees at the species and individual scales to site conditions and drought stress. In the region a temperature rise and a decrease in spring precipitation have led to drier conditions during the late twentieth century characterized by severe droughts in the 1990s and 2000s. As expected, the defoliation levels and the reductions in basal area increment were higher in those species more vulnerable to drought-induced xylem embolism (P. sylvestris) than in those more resistant (P. halepensis). Species adapted to xeric conditions but with high growth rates, such as P. pinaster, were also vulnerable to drought-induced decline. The reduction in basal area increment and the defoliation events occurred after consecutive severe droughts. A decrease in spring precipitation, which is the main driver of radial growth, is the most plausible cause of recent forest decline. The sharp growth reduction and widespread defoliation of the most affected pine plantations of Scots pine make their future persistence in drought-prone sites unlikely under the forecasted warmer and drier conditions.     

Mapping the vulnerability of European summer tourism under 2 °C global warming

Summer tourism is one of the most important contributors to the European GDP especially for the southern countries and is highly dependent on the climatic conditions. Changes in average climatic conditions, along with the potential subsequent changes in the physical environment, will pose stress on the favorability of the climate of European destinations for tourism and recreational activities. Here, we study the vulnerability of summer-oriented tourism due to a global temperature increase by 2 °C relative to the preindustrial era. We use a well-defined framework of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators for a set of plausible climate (RCPs) and socioeconomic (SSPs) combinations. Our result shows that a 2 °C global warming will pose substantial changes to the vulnerability of the European tourism sector. Despite the general increase in exposure, the vulnerability of summer tourism is highly depended on the socioeconomic developments (SSPs). Although exposure is higher for most of the popular southern European destinations like Spain, France, South Italy, southernmost Greece, and Cyprus, they are expected to be less vulnerable than others, under specific SSPs, due to their higher capacity to adapt to a different climate. The capacity to adapt is lower for higher emission scenarios. Substantial changes are also apparent at the subnational level. Countries like France are foreseen to experience very diverse impacts and vulnerabilities within their own territories that will have consequences in terms of domestic tourism. The dynamics of these changes are expected to alter the state of the current European tourism regime.     

秦岭南坡佛坪1789年以来1~4月平均温度重建

采用秦岭南坡陕西佛坪龙草坪、光头山、三个包及三官庙建立的秦岭冷杉、油松和铁杉树轮宽度、密度年表, 分析树木生长对气候要素变化的响应关系, 重建了佛坪1789年以来1~4月平均温度变化, 并对其进行了变化特征分析。结果表明, 各样点的树木生长明显受生长季前期温度影响, 呈较为显著的正相关关系。利用多个样点的年表并引入主分量分析方法建立回归方程, 显著地提高了回归方程的稳定性和显著性, 进而提高了重建结果的可信度。功率谱分析结果表明, 佛坪1~4月平均温度变化具有显著的3~4年周期。而滑动t检验、滑动F检验和Lepage检验结果表明, 18世纪后期以来于1896年前后发生了10年时间尺度的方差突变, 表现为温度波动幅度的变化。     

Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology �C a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971?C2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021?C2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes ?C that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere?Cocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists?? demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed within the project Climate Trends and Sustainable Development of Tourism in Coastal and Low Mountain Range Regions (CAST) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).