北极河流径流量变化及影响因子分析

利用最新的北极径流资料(R-arcticNET V3.0和Arctic RIMS),对进入北冰洋的4条主要河流的季节及年代际变化进行诊断分析。结果表明:入海径流在4-6月的大幅增加主要是由气温达到融点后积雪融化造成的,降水的作用次之。总的来说,欧亚区域在过去的70年里入海径流量是增加的,而北美区域在近30年里入海径流量是减小的,但注入北冰洋的径流总量是增大的。值得注意的是入海径流的年代际变化在不同季节增减趋势显著不同,夏季和秋季径流量减小,而其他两个季节径流量增大。进一步分析了影响入海径流变化的一些气候因子,结果表明:北大西洋涛动(北太平洋指数)与欧亚(北美)区域的冬、春季径流量存在正相关。春季气温与春季径流量呈正相关,而与夏季径流量呈负相关。降水与径流量基本上为同步正相关。春季积雪覆盖面积与春季径流量为负相关,而与夏季径流量为正相关,夏季积雪覆盖面积与夏季的径流量为正相关。     

2008年初我国南方低温冻雨灾害的气候特征

根据2008年初中国南方低温冻雨灾害发生的时间和范围定义了中国南方地表气温异常指数(STAI).研究表明,STAI与欧亚大陆的中、高纬度系统和太平洋副热带高压都有很好的相关性,并且中纬度系统在中层占优,高纬度系统在低层占优.根据STAI合成的典型冷(暖)年850和500 hPa欧亚大陆位势高度异常场呈“北正南负”(“南正北负”)型,西太平洋副热带高压减弱(加强),我国南方水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾(南海).2008年STrAI的前期大气环流背景既具有典型冷年的特征:欧亚大陆位势高度异常呈“北正南负”型;又具有典型暖年的特征:西太平洋副热带高压显著增强,中国南方水汽同时来源于孟加拉湾和南海.     

北黄海冷水团温度年际变化研究

本文基于1976—2006年国家标准断面(大连—成山头)调查资料,结合ECMWF气温、风速以及辐射等再分析资料,研究了北黄海冷水团的低温中心以及北部锋面的年际变化规律,并对其与气候年际变化信号的关系做了相关性分析以及EOF分析,研究了影响北黄海冷水团的诸多因素。研究结果表明,北黄海冷水团及其北部锋面强度存在明显的年际变化特征,北黄海冷水团中心最低温度具有升温趋势,北部锋面强度具有减弱趋势。分析发现,前冬海温,当地气温,经向风场以及辐射通量都对来年北黄海冷水团的强度存在影响,东亚冬季风的年际变异是影响北黄海冷水团温度年际变化的主要机制,El Nio、La Nia事件成熟期滞后于北黄海冷水团最低温度的相对低值、高值出现,ENSO通过与东亚冬季风的相互作用与北黄海冷水团相联系。     

Climate-Related Changes in the Vegetation Cover of the Taiga and Tundra of West Siberia over the Period of 1982–2015 Based on Satellite Data

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - This paper presents the results of a trend and correlation analysis of the air temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)...     

Dynamics of climate extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century

Changes in climatic parameters and in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century are analyzed. A spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies and of a set of indices of climate extremes is presented. Changes in climate extremes show a tendency toward a milder climate, mainly in winter. At the same time, the frost-free period has substantially decreased in the eastern, northern, and central parts of European Russia. In some regions during summer, there is an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as heavy rains, droughts, and sharp cooling. It is shown that the geographic pattern of present-day climate anomalies is linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main mechanism of the current warming in northern Eurasia is a winter intensification of zonal flow linked to the increased frequency of positive anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index.     

Properties and changes in empirical orthogonal components of temperature fields in Northern Eurasia in the 20th century

Using data from 55 meteorological stations in the Northern Hemisphere for the 20th century as a whole and separately for 1901–1950 and 1951–2000, the norms and empirical orthogonal components (EOCs) of the fields of the annual mean surface air temperature were calculated. These fields were found to have two components: smooth and nonsmooth. The field of differences between the temperature norms of the first and second halves of the 20th century was found to be projected almost completely on the very first component of fixed sign; i.e., the current climate trend of the Northern Hemisphere is spatially homogeneous. No substantial changes were found in the transition from the first half to the second half of the 20th century, either in the form of components or in the spectrum of eigenvalues, with the only exception being a small growth (in magnitude) in part of the eigenvalues corresponding to the nonsmooth component. This can be explained by the progressing urbanization of northern Eurasia. All coefficients of the temperature-field expansion by natural components are distributed normally, and their temporal correlation functions for smooth components of fields have a form characteristic of processes with long-term memory. The latter manifests itself particularly in the motions of the two main waves of the smooth component and reflects two stages of the current climate warming.     

长江口外海域冬、春季水温变化规律研究

收集了1963—1996年长江口外海域水温的观测数据,分析了该海域冬、春季表层、10m层、20m层和30m层不同层次水温的季节和年际变化规律,以及其间水温垂向结构的变化。季节变化上,表层多年平均水温在8月最高,3月最低,底层多年平均水温9月最高,3月最低。年际变化上,冬季在1979年存在一个由冷到暖的跃迁;4月水温的年际变化较冬季复杂,表层、10m层、20m层和30m层水温分别在1979、1973、1973和1975年发生从冷到暖的跃迁。水平分布上,冬季除东南角小范围表层水温降低外,沿岸及北部海区表层水温均升高,春季北部和南部中间海域水温升高,升温幅度由表层至30m层逐渐变小。垂向结构上,冬季表底混合均匀,表层与20m层的年际变化相关系数高达0.97,春季表层与20m层的水温差存在10年左右的变化周期。本文将一些可能影响春季水温年际变化的因素与海温进行了比较并发现,在冷期,春季表层海温与长江口外海域气温相关较暖期好,相关指数为0.79;而暖期的春季表层与20m层的水温差与净热通量相关系数较高,为0.65。     

Autumn atmospheric preconditioning for interannual variability of wintertime sea-ice in the Okhotsk Sea

Relations in year-to-year variability between wintertime Sea-Ice Concentrations (SICs) in the Okhotsk Sea and atmospheric anomalies consisting of zonal and meridional 1000-hPa wind speeds and 850-hPa air temperatures are studied using a singular value decomposition analysis. It is revealed that the late autumn (October–November) atmospheric conditions strongly influence sea-ice variability from the same season (late autumn) through late winter (February—March), in which sea-ice extent is at its maximum. The autumn atmospheric conditions for the positive sea-ice anomalies exhibit cold air temperature anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and wind anomalies blowing into the Okhotsk Sea from Siberia. These atmospheric conditions yield anomalous ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes and cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the Okhotsk Sea. Hence, these results suggest that the atmospheric conditions affect the sea-ice through heat anomalies stored in sea-ice and oceanic fields. The late autumn atmosphere conditions are related to large 700-hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Bering Sea and northern Eurasia, which are related to a stationary Rossby wave propagation over the North Pacific and that from the North Atlantic to Eurasia, respectively. In addition, the late autumn atmospheric preconditioning also plays an important role in the decreasing trend in the Okhotsk sea-ice extent observed from 1980 to the mid-1990s. Based on the lagged sea-ice response to the late autumn atmosphere, a simple seasonal prediction scheme is proposed for the February–March sea-ice extent using four-month leading atmospheric conditions. This scheme explains 45% of the variance of the Okhotsk sea-ice extent.     

Estimate of relationship between state of subarctic vegetation and climatic parameters

In this study we examined relationships between vegetation phenology and the physical environment across the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2007. Spatial correlation, principal component analysis, and canonical correlation analisys—all linear techniques—were applied to monthly time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from an AVHRR sensor, sea ice distribution (SSMR-SSM/I), and air temperature (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Atlas). A negative correlation between June NDVI of the tundra belt and sea ice conservation in the coastal zone of Arctic Ocean during summer is possibly forced by broad-scale atmospheric circulation. We developed a model with a single predictor and implemented historical-reconstruction NDVI for a long-term period, including the presatellite era. According to this model, the regional patterns of summer vegetation can be explained by peculiarity of atmospheric circulation in spring.     

Investigation of Arctic air temperature extremes at north of 60°N in winter

Air temperature is a key index reflecting climate change. Air temperature extremes are very important because they strongly influence the natural environment and societal activities. The Arctic air temperature extremes north of 60°N are investigated in the winter. Daily data from 238 stations at north of 60°N from the global summary of the day for the period 1979–2015 are used to study the trends of cold days, cold nights, warm days and warm nights during the wintertime. The results show a decreasing trend of cold days and nights(rate of –0.2 to –0.3 d/a) and an increasing trend of warm days and nights(rate of +0.2 to +0.3 d/a) in the Arctic. The mean temperature increases,which contributes to the increasing(decreasing) occurrence of warm(cold) days and nights. On the other hand,the variance at most stations decreased, leading to a reduced number of cold events. A positive AO(Arctic Oscillation) index leads to an increased(decreased) number of warm(cold) days and nights over northern Europe and western Russia and an increased(decreased) number of cold(warm) days and nights over the Bering Strait and Greenland. The lower extent of Arctic autumn sea ice leads to a decreased number of cold days and nights.The occurrences of abrupt changes are detected using the Mann-Kendall method for cold nights occurring in Canada in 1998 and for warm nights occurring in northwestern Eurasia in 1988. This abrupt change mainly resulted from the mean warming induced by south winds and an increased North Atlantic sea surface temperature.     

Relative Sea Level Changes in Maldives and Vulnerability of Land Due to Abnormal Coastal Inundation

Oceanic Islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have extremely small land areas, usually less than 500 km2, with maximum height about 4 m above sea level. The Republic of Maldives is an independent island nation in the Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka which stretches vertically in the Indian Ocean from 07° 06'N - 0° 42'S. The land area of this island country is about 300 km2, and none of Maldives' 1190 islands has an elevation more than 3 m above sea level. In fact the Maldives has the distinction of being the flattest country on earth, making it extremely vulnerable to the effects of global warming. Of the south Asian countries, the Maldives is the most vulnerable nation, facing severe consequences as a result of global warming and sea level rise (SLR). Because of their obvious vulnerability to SLR, the Government of Maldives is very much concerned about climate change. As global warming and the related SLR is an important integrated environmental issue, the need of the hour is to monitor and assess these changes. The present article deals mainly with the analysis of the tidal and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data observed at Male and Gan stations along the Maldives coast in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The objective of the analysis is to study the trends of these parameters. Trend analysis is also performed on the corresponding air temperature data of both stations. The results show that Maldives coastal sea level is rising in the same way (rising trend) as the global sea level. The mean tidal level at Male has shown an increasing trend of about 4.1 mm/year.Similarly at Gan, near the equator,it has registered a positive trend of about 3.9 mm/year.Sea level variations are the manifestations of various changes that are taking place in the Ocean-Atmosphere system. Therefore, the variations in SST and air temperature are intimately linked to sea level rise. It is found that SST and air temperature have also registered an increasing trend at both stations. The evidence of rising trends suggest that careful future monitoring of these parameters is very much required. Tropical cyclones normally do not affect the Maldives coast. However, due to its isolated location, the long fetches in association with swells generated by storms, that originated in the far south have resulted in flooding. Thus the rising rate of sea level with high waves and flat topography have increased the risk of flooding and increased the rate of erosion and alteration of beaches.     

Relative Sea Level Changes in Maldives and Vulnerability of Land Due to Abnormal Coastal Inundation

Oceanic Islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have extremely small land areas, usually less than 500 km2, with maximum height about 4 m above sea level. The Republic of Maldives is an independent island nation in the Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka which stretches vertically in the Indian Ocean from 07° 06'N - 0° 42'S. The land area of this island country is about 300 km2, and none of Maldives' 1190 islands has an elevation more than 3 m above sea level. In fact the Maldives has the distinction of being the flattest country on earth, making it extremely vulnerable to the effects of global warming. Of the south Asian countries, the Maldives is the most vulnerable nation, facing severe consequences as a result of global warming and sea level rise (SLR). Because of their obvious vulnerability to SLR, the Government of Maldives is very much concerned about climate change. As global warming and the related SLR is an important integrated environmental issue, the need of the hour is to monitor and assess these changes. The present article deals mainly with the analysis of the tidal and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data observed at Male and Gan stations along the Maldives coast in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The objective of the analysis is to study the trends of these parameters. Trend analysis is also performed on the corresponding air temperature data of both stations. The results show that Maldives coastal sea level is rising in the same way (rising trend) as the global sea level. The mean tidal level at Male has shown an increasing trend of about 4.1 mm/year.Similarly at Gan, near the equator,it has registered a positive trend of about 3.9 mm/year.Sea level variations are the manifestations of various changes that are taking place in the Ocean-Atmosphere system. Therefore, the variations in SST and air temperature are intimately linked to sea level rise. It is found that SST and air temperature have also registered an increasing trend at both stations. The evidence of rising trends suggest that careful future monitoring of these parameters is very much required. Tropical cyclones normally do not affect the Maldives coast. However, due to its isolated location, the long fetches in association with swells generated by storms, that originated in the far south have resulted in flooding. Thus the rising rate of sea level with high waves and flat topography have increased the risk of flooding and increased the rate of erosion and alteration of beaches.     

冬季北大西洋涛动和乌拉尔山阻塞环流对欧亚大陆变冷的协同影响

虽然全球平均表面气温不断升高,但在冬季欧亚大陆经常出现年际-年代际尺度上的变冷趋势。利用美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP)再分析资料,指出冬季影响欧亚大陆变冷的大气环流主要是北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)和乌拉尔山阻塞(Ural blocking, UB)的环流组合。其中,NAO环流可以在年际尺度上作为背景环流影响UB过程对欧亚低温天气的作用。统计分析发现,在NAO正(负)位相(NAO⁺/NAO^-)环流背景下UB的发生频率可以解释冬季平均UB发生频率的52%(13%),表明NAO⁺环流有利于下游阻塞形势出现。尽管如此,研究发现在NAO^-环流背景下的UB事件平均给欧亚地区带来的降温幅度更强,约是NAO⁺环流背景下的2倍,而且亚洲降温区的位置偏北约5°、偏东约13.5°。中等强度的NAO⁺环流背景下UB事件对欧亚降温的贡献...     

Arctic sea ice cover in connection with climate change

Recently published studies on key issues in the evolution of Arctic sea ice cover are reviewed and attempts to answer disputable questions are made in the research part of the work. It is shown that climate warming, manifested in an increase in the surface air temperature, and reduction in the ice cover develop with a high degree of agreement in summer. Based on this fact, anomalies of the September ice-cover area have been retrieved from 1900. They show a significant decrease in the 1930–1940s, which is almost twice as low as in 2007–2012. The influence of fluctuations in the flow of warm and salty Atlantic water is noted in variations in the winter maximum of the ice-cover area in the Barents Sea. An accelerated positive trend has been ascertained for the air temperature in late autumn–early winter in 1993–2012 due to an increase in the open water area in late summer. Inherent regularities of the ice-cover-area variability made it possible to develop a prediction of the monthly values of sea-ice extent with a head time from 6 months to 2 years. Their strong correlation with summer air temperature is used to estimate the onset of summer ice clearance in the Arctic.     

黄河三角洲NDVI时空演化特征及其驱动因素

为了解黄河三角洲地区植被盖度的时空动态,在利用遥感资料分析归一化植被指数(NDVI)空间分布格局及其年际变化规律的基础上,进一步探讨了影响NDVI时空变化的自然和人为因素。结果显示,黄河三角洲地区2002、2006、2008、2013年10月的NDVI均值分别为-0.04、0.06、0.10、0.16,NDVI0的区域面积分别约1253、1733、1742、2175km~2(分别占区域总面积的43.67%、60.01%、66.82%、81.77%)。在时间动态上,区域NDVI总体呈逐渐增加的良性发展态势,黄河入海口地区尤为突出;在空间格局上,NDVI可分为高植被覆盖区(NDVI0.4)、中等植被覆盖区(NDVI为0.1—0.4)和稀疏植被覆盖区(NDVI0.1),且按离海远近在区域内分别呈现斜"Y"、斑块和条带状。地形高度、地下水和土壤水盐条件(尤其是潜水氯离子浓度,二者之间R=0.737)等环境因素影响NDVI整体空间分布格局,区域降水和气温等气候条件造成NDVI年际动态变化,而黄河下游生态调度对过水区域特别是河口地区NDVI良性变化具有显著的促进作用。黄河三角洲地区应持续加强生态环境保护与修复,提高植被盖度及其综合效益。     

东亚夏季气候主要模态的年际变化及其机理

主要研究了东亚(中国和日本)夏季气候(降水和气温)主要模态的年际变化及其机理。研究发现,中国区域夏季降水和气温的大尺度年际变化间有很强的耦合:大范围多(少)雨对应大范围低(高)温。奇异值分解的第一个模态的长期变化主要反映了长江中下游地区降水逐年增加(变湿)的趋势而气温逐年降低(变冷)的趋势。在70年代中期以后,长江中下游地区降水和气温耦合变化的准两年分量明显增强。研究表明,影响长江中下游地区夏季降水和气温年际变化的大尺度环流背景异常十分相似,即主要是两个遥相关型:太平洋-日本(PJ)型和欧亚型遥相关型。与夏季东亚梅雨异常相联系的长江中下游地区降水和气温异常是中高纬度干冷空气和低纬度暖湿空气相互作用的结果。热带西太平洋海表温度异常和相关的对流活动的年际变化通过PJ型对东亚地区夏季降水和气温的年际变化产生十分显着的影响。西太平洋对流活动与北半球大气环流遥相关的相互作用有明显的季节性。PJ型不仅是夏季西太平洋对流活动与北半球夏季热带外地区500hPa高度场年际变化耦合相互作用的最重要模态,而且也是两者各自变化的一个十分重要的模态。1984年夏季北半球500hPa位势高度主振荡型分析表明存在着能量从热带西太平洋向东亚北部的PJ型的振荡传播。低纬度的影响可传播到70°N,同时也存在能量从高纬度向低纬度的传播.即从极地传播到70°N。高纬度和低纬度的影响在70°N附近汇合。     

春季西北太平洋热带气旋与海温场和大气环流的关系

本文利用1951～1987年286个网格点太平洋月平均海温场及500hPa月平均位势高度场,分析了春季西北太平洋（不含南海）热带气旋与海温场和大气环流的关系。结果表明:前期太平洋海温场与春季热带气旋生成数有显著的相关,并以前一年夏季和前期冬季更为明显。影响春季热带气旋生成的太平洋海温场主要有两个关键区,一个位于赤道东太平洋,为负相关:一个位于北太平洋中部,为正相关。文中还从海温对大气环流影响的角度出发,分析了春季热带气旋活动特多年与特少年前期及同期500hPa大气环流的特征及两者之间的差异。最后利用逐步回归方法作了春季西北太平洋热带气旋长期趋势预报。     

城市热岛效应的卫星遥感分析

利用MODIS资料研究了2004年4月南京城市热岛特征及其影响因子,结合地表覆盖类型分析了植被归一化指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）、地表温度（Ts）、地表反照率（α）的城乡差异及其相互关系,探讨了城市热岛（Urban Heat Island,UHI）效应形成的机制。结果表明：南京城区存在着明显的城市热岛效应;城市平均Ts比乡村高约10．83％;城市NDVI和α分别比乡村低约为62％和18.75％;NDVI与Ts呈负相关,相关系数为-0．73,而NDVI与α之间关系与波段有关;城乡植被覆盖差异是造成UHI的主要原因,其次是地表反照率,通过提高植被覆盖率和地表反照率可以减小城市热岛效应。     

2021年秋季海洋天气评述

2021年秋季(9—11月)北半球大气环流特征为:极涡整体呈单极型,中高纬环流呈5波型分布,欧亚地区西风带环流形势季节内调整大,副热带高压(以下简称"副高")偏强,西伸明显.秋季我国近海大风过程主要由冷空气、温带气旋和热带气旋影响造成.在12次8级以上大风过程中,冷空气影响8次,温带气旋影响6次,台风影响4次.西北太平...     

Measurements of vertical air temperature gradients with dipmeter

By means of measuring the dips of horizon with a Pulfrich dipmeter, vertical air temperature gradients near the sea surface were obtained with an accuracy of ca. ±0.01°C/m, much better than a conventional method with an array of temperature sensors. The additional advantage of this technique was that the measurements were made on board a ship underway, consequently data from wide oceanic areas could be accumulated rather quickly and easily. From the results of dip measurements at 125 stations on two cruises of the T/V Oshoro Maru of the Hokkaido University, extending from the Bering Sea to the south of Australia, the temperature gradients were computed with a new formula with an assumption that the refractive index of air varied with a height only. It was found that, in the northern North Pacific Ocean, vertical air temperature gradients were positive, while in the subtropical and tropical Pacific Ocean both the negative and positive gradients were observed. Generally, in the same sea region, the temperature profiles had the similar form, irrespective of air-sea temperature differences.