Migration of historical earthquakes in California

Most large earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 in California during 1852–1987 appear to show a southeast-to-northwest tendency of epicenter migration. This finding is consistent with earlier findings ofSavage (1971) for a relatively few large earthquakes along the west coast of North America, and ofWood andAllen (1973) for smaller events along the San Andreas fault in central California. The average speed of migration is approximately 130 km/yr, which is within the range of speeds observed for other major seismic zones in the world. The epicenter migration in California may be the result of some small but broad-scaled episodic strain changes associated with creep waves induced by magma injections at the East Pacific Rise and propagating northwestwardly along a broad transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates at subseismogenic depths as proposed bySavage (1971).     

Sensitivity of secular trends in precipitation data to observational errors

There has been considerable interest in estimating secular trends in precipitation data in various regions of the world. It is therefore important to ascertain the manner in which errors of observation affect estimated trends. For this purpose we have compared trends at 1219 stations in the contiguous United States for two data sets: (a) original observations, also called raw observations, and (b) the observations, adjusted to compensate for suspected errors. The adjustments were made at the National Climate Data Center, Asheville (Quinlan et al., 1987;karl andWilliams, 1987), In order to focus on the effects of observational errors we attempted to avoid the effects of filling of missing data by limiting the analysis to the period 1940–1984 for which the number of missing values is much smaller than earlier periods. A least-square linear regression was performed on the raw and adjusted data for each station and the slopes of the fitted lines were compared. The comparison was made for monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation values.The results for annual precipitation showed that 23 percent of the stations have trends of opposite signs in the raw and adjusted data. The trends were identical in annual data at only 11 percent of the stations. When monthly data are combined to form seasonal and annual averages the magnitude of the difference between the slopes of the adjusted and the raw observations generally increases, indicating that the errors in the individual monthly observations are correlated. When the station data were averaged to obtain state-wide averages, the effects of the errors became less pronounced in most of the states. These results indicate that obtaining trends in precipitation from station data is a more difficult problem than has been realized.     

Azimuthally varyingP-wave travel-time residuals in Fennoscandia and lateral inhomogeneity

Summary To the residual data ofEnayatollah [11] are fitted sine curves with back-azimuth as the independent variable. The result is a clear regional trend towards apparently earlyP-wave arrivals from the north relative to those from the south at any one station for 55^o. Explanations are plausible, but not entirely satisfactory, on the basis of systematic epicentral mislocation, or of lateral inhomogeneity inP-velocity structure of the Fennoscandian crust and/or uppermost mantle. A zone of lateral inhomogeneity deeper in the mantle, for example a dipping 600-km discontinuity, consistent with the residual observations, is more likely than a shallower emplacement considering the physical implications of extending such a structure to underlie all or most of Fennoscandia. More fundamental inhomogeneous velocity structure throughout most or all of the mantle may have to be considered to enable epicentral determination and travel-time prediction within the accuracy that present instruments would theoretically permit.     

The bayesian probabilistic prediction of the next earthquake in the ometepec segment of the mexican subduction zone

A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time () for the next earthquake (M6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process.Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times () and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes (M) (Nishenko andBuland, 1987;Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variablesX=InM andY=In with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event.Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh).The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events.Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake (M6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval =11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will probably occur in April, 1996.     

The optimum Bayesian probability procedure and the prediction of strong earthquakes felt in Mexico city

Bayes' theorem has possible application to earthquake prediction because it can be used to represent the dependence of the inter-arrival time (T) of thenext event on magnitude (M) of thepreceding earthquake (Ferraes, 1975;Bufe et al., 1977;Shimazaki andNakata, 1980;Sykes andQuittmeyer, 1981). First, we derive the basic formulas, assuming that the earthquake process behaves as a Poisson process. Under this assumption the likelihood probabilities are determined by the Poisson distribution (Ferraes, 1985) after which we introduce the conjugate family of Gamma prior distributions. Finally, to maximize the posterior Bayesian probabilityP(/M) we use calculus and introduce the analytical condition .Subsequently we estimate the occurrence of the next future large earthquake to be felt in Mexico City. Given the probabilistic model, the prediction is obtained from the data set that include all events withM7.5 felt in Mexico City from 1900 to 1985. These earthquakes occur in the Middle-America trench, along Mexico, but are felt in Mexico City. To see the full significance of the analysis, we give the result using two models: (1) The Poisson-Gamma, and (2) The Poisson-Exponential (a special case of the Gamma).Using the Poisson-Gamma model, the next expected event will occur in the next time interval =2.564 years from the last event (occurred on September 19, 1985) or equivalently, the expected event will occur approximately in April, 1988.Using the Poisson-Exponential model, the next expected damaging earthquake will occur in the next time interval =2.381 years from the last event, or equivalently in January, 1988.It should be noted that very strong agreement exists between the two predicted occurrence times, using both models.     

The rupture process and tectonic implications of the great 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake

We have determined the rupture history of the March 28, 1964, Prince Williams Sound earthquake (M _w=9.2) from long-period WWSSNP-wave seismograms. Source time functions determined from the long-periodP waves indicate two major pulses of moment release. The first and largest moment pulse has a duration of approximately 100 seconds with a relatively smooth onset which reaches a peak moment release rate at about 75 seconds into the rupture. The second smaller pulse of moment release starts at approximately 160 seconds after the origin time and has a duration of roughly 40 seconds. Because of the large size of this event and thus a deficiency of on-scale, digitizableP-wave seismograms, it is impossible to uniquely invert for the location of moment release. However, if we assume a rupture direction based on the aftershock distribution and the results of surface wave directivity studies we are able to locate the spatial distribution of moment along the length of the fault. The first moment pulse most likely initiated near the epicenter at the northeastern down-dip edge of the aftershock area and then spread over the fault surface in a semi-circular fashion until the full width of the fault was activated. The rupture then extended toward the southwest approximately 300 km (Ruff andKanamori, 1983). The second moment pulse was located in the vicinity of Kodiak Island, starting at 500 km southwest of the epicenter and extending to about 600 km. Although the aftershock area extends southwest past the second moment pulse by at least 100 km, the moment release remained low. We interpret the 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake as a multiple asperity rupture with a very large dominant asperity in the epicentral region and a second major, but smaller, asperity in the Kodiak Island region.The zone that ruptured in the 1964 earthquake is segmented into two regions corresponding to the two regions of concentrated moment release. Historical earthquake data suggest that these segments behaved independently during previous events. The Kodiak Island region appears to rupture more frequently with previous events occurring in 1900, 1854, 1844, and 1792. In contrast, the Prince William Sound region has much longer recurrence intervals on the order of 400–1000 years.     

On estimating frequency-magnitude relations from heterogeneous catalogs

The paper studies the effect of magnitude errors on heterogeneous catalogs, by applying the apparent magnitude theory (seeTinti andMulargia, 1985a), which proves to be the most natural and rigorous approach to the problem. Heterogeneities in seismic catalogs are due to a number of various sources and affect both instrumental as well as noninstrumental earthquake compilations.The most frequent basis of heterogeneity is certainly that the recent instrumental records are to be combined with the historic and prehistoric event listings to secure a time coverage, considerably longer than the recurrence time of the major earthquakes. Therefore the case which attracts the greatest attention in the present analysis is that of a catalog consisting of a subset of higher quality data, generallyS ₁, spanning the interval T ₁ (the instrumental catalog), and of a second subset of more uncertain magnitude determination, generallyS ₂, covering a vastly longer interval T ₂ (the historic and/or the geologic catalog). The magnitude threshold of the subcatalogS ₁ is supposedly smaller than that ofS ₂, which, as we will see, is one of the major causes of discrepancy between the apparent magnitude and the true magnitude distributions. We will further suppose that true magnitude occurrences conform to theGutenberg-Richter (GR) law, because the assumption simplified the analysis without reducing the relevancy of our findings.The main results are: 1) the apparent occurrence rate exceeds the true occurrence rate from a certain magnitude onward, saym _GR; 2) the apparent occurrence rate shows two distinct GR regimes separated by an intermediate transition region. The offset between the two regimes is the essential outcome ofS ₁ being heterogeneous with respect toS ₂. The most important consequences of this study are that: 1) it provides a basis to infer the parameters of the true magnitude distribution, by correcting the bias deriving from heterogeneous magnitude errors; 2) it demonstrates that the double GR decay, that several authors have taken as the incontestable proof of the failure of the GR law and of the experimental evidence of the characteristic earthquake theory, is instead perfectly consistent with a GR-type seismicity.     

Die ≪Strahlung≫ bei Pouillet und Kirchhoff

Zusammenfassung Der Widerspruch zwischen den Strahlungsgesetzen der Physik und der Definition der Strahlung durchPouillet, die allen bisherigen Strahlungs-Messungen zu Grunde liegt, wird am Modell des schwarzstrahlenden Hohlraums vonKirchhoff gezeigt. Auch die Bestimmungen der Solarkonstante (Kalitins's Liste) sind verloren.

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Summary The contradiction ofPouillet's radiation and the physical laws of radiation sinceKirchhoff, Boltzmann-Stefan, Wien, Lummer andKurlbaum is by the model of the black radiating body ofKirchhoff demonstrated. The measurements of radiation have followed til now to the antiquated idea ofPouillet. The determination of the solar constant as inKalitin's list represented also is lost.

     

Love wave dispersion: Errors due to assumption of isotropy

Summary Frequency equation for Love waves, propagating in a transversely isotropic homogeneous layer which is embedded between two isotropic homogeneous half spaces, is obtained. Errors, in rigidity (h), density and thickness of the anisotropic layer, which arise due to the assumption of isotropy of the medium are calculated by numerically analyzing the frequency equation. The results show that the errors increase with the increasing frequencies, and their signs depend upon the value (whether less than or greater than 1) of the anisotropy co-efficient of the medium of the layer.     

An algorithm for the optimum distribution of a regional seismic network — II. An analysis of the accuracy of location of local earthquakes depending on the number of seismic stations

Summary Seven optimal networks consisting of 4 to 10 stations are compared for a given region, where velocity-depth profiles and the distribution of seismic intensity are known. Assuming that the standard error of arrival time is _t =0.05 s and the standard errors of the parameters of velocity-depth profiles are equal to 5% of their values, the average standard errors of the origin time and focus coordinates are estimated. The application of optimum methods to the planning of seismic networks in the Lublin Coal Basin is presented, and maps of standard errors of origin time , depth and epicenter ( _xy ) for the case of an optimum network of 6 seismic stations are given.     

A numerical test of two approximate solutions to the radiative transfer equation using the Elsasser scheme

In a recent paperCharlock, Herman andZdunkowski (1976) disagree on how best to apply the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE) in the construction of Elsasser type radiation tables. The two proposed approximation solutions are analyzed and compared against a quasiexact solution. Infrared fluxes and cooling rates are calculated for part of the 6.3 m water vapor band for two model atmospheres. It is found that the Zdunkowski (Z) approximation yields more accurate downward fluxes, while the Charlock-Herman (CH) approximation, in general, results in more accurate upward fluxes. For the two model atmospheres studied the cooling rates for theZ approximation are usually of better quality than those due to the CH solution, unless the divergence of the net flux is extremely small.     

Intraplate seismicity of the Pacific Basin, 1913–1988

We establish here a comprehensive database of intraplate seismicity in the Pacific Basin. Relocation and analysis of 894 earthquakes yield 403 reliable intraplate earthquakes during 1913–1988. These numbers do not include earthquake swarms, which account for another 838 events. Most of the remainder (304 events) are actually plate boundary earthquakes that have been erroneously located in intraplate regions. A significant number occur in recent years when location capabilities should have guarded against this situation. Relocations involve a careful linear inversion ofP andS arrivals, accompanied by a Monte Carlo statistical analysis. We have also attentively removed the high number of clerical errors and nuclear tests that exist in epicenter bulletins.A geographical examination of the relocated epicenters reveals several striking features. There are three NW-SE lineaments north of the Fiji Plateau and in Micronesia; diffuse seismicity and incompatible focal mechanisms argue against the southernmost, discussed byOkal et al. (1986) andKroenke andWalker (1986), as the simple relocation of the Solomon trench to the North. Besides another striking lineament, along the 130°W meridian, there is also a strong correlation between seismicity and bathymetry in certain parts of the Basin. In the Eastcentral Pacific and Nazca plates there are many epicenters on fracture zones and fossil spreading ridges, and hot spot traces like the Louisville, Nazca and Cocos Ridges also display seismicity.     

Instantaneous photochemical rates in the global stratosphere

Starting with the average actual distribution of ozone (Dütsch [15]) and temperature in the stratosphere, we have calculated the solar intensity as a function of wavelength and the instantaneous rates (molecules cm^–3 sec^–1) for each Chapman reaction and for each of several reactions of the oxides of nitrogen. The calculation is similar to that ofBrewer andWilson [5]. These reaction rates were calculated independently in each volume element in spherical polar coordinates defined by R=1 km from zero to 50, =5° latitude, and ø=15° longitude (thus including day and night conditions). Calculations were made for two times: summer-winter (January 15) and spring-fall (March 22). As input data we take observed solar intensities (Ackerman [1]) and observed, critically evaluated. constants for elementary chemical and photochemical reactions; no adjustable parameters are employed. (These are not photochemical equilibrium calculations.) According to the Chapman model, the instantaneous, integrated, world-wide rate of formation of ozone from sunlight is about five times faster than the rate of ozone destruction, and locally (lower tropical stratosphere) the rate of ozone formation exceeds the rate of destruction by a factors as great as 1000. The global rates of increase of ozone are more than 50 times faster thanBrewer andWilson's [5] estimate of the average annual transfer rate of ozone to the troposphere. The rate constants of the Chapman reactions are believed to be well-enough known that it is highly improbable that these discrepancies are, due to erroneous rate constants. It is concluded that something else besides neutral oxygen species is very important in stratospheric ozone photochemistry. The inclusion of a uniform concentration of the oxides of nitrogen (NO_x as, NO and NO₂) averaging 6.6×10^–9 mole fraction gives a balance between global ozone formation and destruction rates. The inclusion of a uniform mole fraction of NO_x at 28×10^–9 also gives a global balance. These calculations support the hypethesis (Crutzen [10],Johnston [24]) that the oxides of nitrogen are the most important factor in the global, natural ozone balance. Several authors have recently evaluated the natural source strength of NO_x in the stratosphere; the projected fleets of supersonic transports would constitute an artificial source of NO_x about equal to the natural value, thus promising more or less to double an active natural stratospheric ingredient.     

Effects of temperature and sliding rate on frictional strength of granite

Layers of artificial granite gouge have been deformed on saw-cut granite surfaces inclined 30° to the sample axes. Samples were deformed at a constant confining pressure of 250 MPa and temperatures of 22 to 845°C. The velocity dependence of the steady-state coefficient of friction (^ss) was determined by comparing sliding strengths at different sliding rates. The results of these measurements are consistent with those reported bySolberg andByerlee (1984) at room temperature andStesky (1975) between 300 and 400°C. Stesky found that the slip-rate dependence of (^ss) increased above 400°C. In the present study, however, the velocity dependence of (^ss) was nearly independent of temperature.     

Application of a Global 3D Model to Improve Regional Event Locations

Accurate location of weak seismic events is crucial for monitoring clandestine nuclear tests, for studying local seismic structures, and for assessing possible seismic hazards. Outside of a few regions with dense seismic networks, weak seismic events (with magnitude less than 4) are usually sparsely recorded at epicentral distances less than 20°. Because of lateral variations in crustal and upper mantle structures, observed travel times of seismic phases deviate significantly from predictions based on 1-dimensional (1D) seismic models. Accurately locating weak seismic events remains a difficult task for modern seismology. Perhaps the most promising solution to this problem is the use of a 3-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth. Here we present the results of a validation test in which, using the 3D model SR2002 of the crust and upper mantle and regional phase data alone, we relocate 200 earthquakes and nuclear explosions in Eurasia. The 3D model is constructed using surface wave dispersion data. The event locations using the 3D model are compared with so-called Ground Truth data, either known by non-seismic means or validated by cluster analysis, with location accuracy mostly 5 km or better. Typically, the 3D model reduces the location errors to about half the values attained with the 1D model; i.e., 18 km location errors are reduced to about 9 km. This test indicates that the location of regional events can be significantly improved by using a global 3D model.     

A relationship between phonon conductivity and seismic parameter Φ for silicate minerals

Summary The relationship between the phonon conductivity at room temperature (K _N ) and the seismic parameter () for silicate minerals is suggested. The considerations are based on the Debye model of thermal energy transport phenomena in solids and on the seismic equation of state for silicates and oxides given byAnderson (1967). The semiempirical relationship is the formK _N = 0.43^0.82 where is in km²/s² andK _N in mcal/cm s K, and the empirical relationship isK _N =(0.528±0.006) –(8.18±2.11). The laboratory data on thermal and elastic properties for several silicates were taken fromHorai andSimmons (1970).     

Intermediate term earthquake prediction in the area of Greece: Application of the algorithm M8

The 3 strongest earthquakes,M7.0, which have occurred since 1973 in the area of Greece were preceded by a specific increase of the earthquake activity in the lower magnitude range. This activation is depicted by algorithm M8. This algorithm of intermediate term earthquake prediction was originally designed for diagnosis by Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) of the strongest earthquake,M8.0 worldwide (Keilis-Borok andKossobokov, 1984). At present the algorithm is retrospectively tested for smaller magnitudes in different seismic regions (Keilis-Borok andKossobokov, 1986, 1988). A TIP refers to a time period of 5 years and an area whose linear size is proportional and several times larger than that of the incipient earthquake source. Altogether the TIPs diagnosed by the algorithm M8 in the area of Greece occupy less than 20% and the Times of Expectation (TEs) about 10% of the total space-time domain considered. Also there is a current TIP for the southeastern Aegean sea and 1988–1992. It may specify the long-term prediction given inWyss andBaer (1981a,b).The results of this study are further evidence favoring applicability of algorithm M8 in diverse seismotectonic environment and magnitude ranges and support indirectly the hypothesis of self-similarity of the earthquake activity. It also implies the possibility of intermediate term prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the area of Greece.     

Laboratory measurement of compaction-induced permeability change in porous rocks: Implications for the generation and maintenance of pore pressure excess in the crust

Permeability exerts significant control over the development of pore pressure excess in the crust, and it is a physical quantity sensitively dependent on the pore structure and stress state. In many applications, the relation between permeability and effective mean stress is assumed to be exponential and that between permeability and porosity is assumed to be a power law, so that the pressure sensitivity of permeability is characterized by the coefficient and the porosity sensitivity by the exponent . In this study, we investigate experimentally the dependence of permeability on pressure and porosity in five sandstones with porosities ranging from 14% to 35% and we review published experimental data on intact rocks, unconsolidated materials and rock fractures. The laboratory data show that the pressure and porosity sensitivities differ significantly for different compaction mechanisms, but for a given compaction mechanism, the data can often be approximated by the empirical relations. The permeabilities of tight rocks and rock joints show relatively high pressure sensitivity and low porosity sensitivity. A wide range of values for and have been observed in relation to the mechanical compaction of porous rocks, sand and fault gouge, whereas the porosity sensitivity for chemical compaction processes is often observed to be given by 3. We show that since the ratio / corresponds to the pore compressibility, the different dependences of permeability on porosity and pressure are related to the pore structure and its compressibility. Guided by the laboratory data, we conduct numerical simulations on the development of pore pressure in crustal tectonic settings according to the models ofWalder andNur (1984) andRice (1992). Laboratory data suggest that the pressure sensitivity of fault gouge is relatively low, and to maintain pore pressure at close to the lithostatic value in the Rice model, a relatively high influx of fluid from below the seismogenic layer is necessary. The fluid may be injected as vertically propagating pressure pulses into the seismogenic system, andRice's (1992) critical condition for the existence of solitary wave is shown to be equivalent to >1, which is satisfied by most geologic materials in the laboratory. Laboratory data suggest that the porosity sensitivity is relatively high when the permeability is reduced by a coupled mechanical and chemical compaction process. This implies that in a crustal layer, pore pressure may be generated more efficiently than cases studied byWalder andNur (1984) who assumed a relatively low porosity sensitivity of =2.     

Lunar and solar barometric tides at Rarotonga,Cook Islands

Lunar and solar atmospheric tidal oscillations have been determined with reasonable accuracy from a ten-year record of hourly mercury-barometer readings, corrected to mean-sea-level, at Rarotonga (Cook Islands), 21.2°S. For the lunar semidiurnal tide, the annual determination shows an amplitude (56 b) slightly lower and a phase (51°) much smaller than the values (58 b, 72°) that would be derived, for the position of Rarotonga, from the spherical harmonic analysis given byHaurwitz andCowley (1969). The seasonal variation of this oscillation, as given by the monthly and J, E, D values, shows most of the characteristic features found in world-wide determinations. In particular, the near equality of the J, D amplitudes at Rarotonga tends to support theHaurwitz andCowley (1969) suggestion of negative J-D values in southern middle latitudes. For the solar tides, the semidiurnal and terdiurnal oscillations at Rarotonga are similar to those found at other stations in the south-west Pacific region. However, for the diurnal oscillation, the annual amplitude (232 b) is only about half the value (465 b) indicated for the position of Rarotonga by the world maps of theS ₁(p) annual harmonic coefficients given byHaurwitz (1965). It thus seems likely that the relatively small area of lowS ₁(p) annual amplitude in the eastern part of the south Pacific, as indicated by these maps, is much more extensive than formerly supposed.     

Turbidometric estimations in Mexico city using the Volz sun photometer

Summary Measuring, with the aid of two filters, the instantaneous intensity of the solar radiation in two wave lengths ( _B = 0.44 , _R = 0.64 ) by means of a sun photometer designed byVolz, we carried out determinations of the decadic turbidity coefficientB (=0.5 ) and the wave length exponent of the haze extinction for Mexico City. Observations were made for almost two and a half years (1960 to 1962 period). A seasonal size distribution in both parameters was found. Although the data thus obtained are provenient of a contaminated atmosphere, comparison of our data is made with those found for higher latitudes ofÅngström, Schüepp andVolz. The height of the homogeneous haze layerH _D was calculated showing pronounced variations for a given wind direction. The maximum and minimum values ofB enable us to get, by the first approximation, the aerosol size distribution ofJunge for our latitudes. However, for exceptional very clear days having maximum actinometric intensity of the solar radiation the sensitivity of the microamperimeter in theVolz sun photometer fails.