Flow rule in a high-cycle accumulation model backed by cyclic test data of 22 sands

The flow rule used in the high-cycle accumulation (HCA) model proposed by Niemunis et al. (Comput Geotech 32: 245, 2005) is examined on the basis of the data from approximately 350 drained long-term cyclic triaxial tests (N = 10⁵ cycles) performed on 22 different grain-size distribution curves of a clean quartz sand. In accordance with (Wichtmann et al. in Acta Geotechnica 1: 59, 2006), for all tested materials, the “high-cyclic flow rule (HCFR)”, i.e., the ratio of the volumetric and deviatoric strain accumulation rates \(\dot{\varepsilon}_{\rm{v}}^{{\rm acc}}/\dot{\varepsilon}_{\rm{q}}^{{\rm acc}}\) , was found dependent primarily on the average stress ratio η ^av = q ^av/p ^av and independent of amplitude, soil density and average mean pressure. The experimental HCFR can be fairly well approximated by the flow rule of the modified Cam-clay (MCC) model. Instead of the critical friction angle \(\varphi_{\rm{c}}\) which enters the flow rule for monotonic loading, the HCA model uses the MCC flow rule expression with a slightly different parameter \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) . It should be determined from cyclic tests. \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) and \(\varphi_{\rm{c}}\) are of similar magnitude but not always identical, because they are calibrated from different types of tests. For a simplified calibration in the absence of cyclic test data, \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) may be estimated from the angle of repose \(\varphi_{\rm{r}}\) determined from a pluviated cone of sand (Wichtmann et al. in Acta Geotechnica 1: 59, 2006). However, the paper demonstrates that the MCC flow rule with \(\varphi_{\rm{r}}\) does not fit well the experimentally observed HCFR in the case of coarse or well-graded sands. For an improved simplified calibration procedure, correlations between \(\varphi_{\rm{cc}}\) and parameters of the grain-size distribution curve (d ₅₀,   C _u) have been developed on the basis of the present data set. The approximation of the experimental HCFR by the generalized flow rule equations proposed in (Wichtmann et al. in J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 136: 728, 2010), considering anisotropy, is also discussed in the paper.     

Assessment of liquefaction potential of Erzincan Province and its vicinity,Turkey

One of the most important causes of damages after the earthquakes is the soil liquefaction. Liquefaction can be defined as temporary loss in strength of saturated sandy and silty deposits under transient and cyclic loadings due to excess pore water pressure. This study includes determination of liquefaction potential in Erzincan city center and its vicinity. Due to the proximity of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, in a probable earthquake, Erzincan Province is thought to be affected. In this context, the earthquake scenarios were produced using the empirical expressions. Liquefaction potential for different earthquake magnitudes was determined. These earthquake magnitudes were selected as 6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5, respectively. Liquefaction potential was investigated using standard penetration test (SPT) data. The first stage of the study, 63 boreholes in different locations was drilled and SPT was performed. Disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were taken from these boreholes. Laboratory testing was performed to determine physical properties of soil samples, and liquefaction potential analyses were examined using three methods, namely Seed and Idriss (J Soil Mech Found Div ASCE 97(9):1249–1273, 1971), Tokimatsu and Yoshimi (Soil Found 23(4):56–74, 1983), Iwasaki et al. (Soil liquefaction potential evaluation with use of the simplified procedure. International Conference on Recent Advances in Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics, St. Louis, pp 209–214, 1981). In order to complete liquefaction analysis within a short time, MATLAB program was prepared. Liquefaction potential analyses were carried out with the MATLAB program. At the final stage of this study, liquefaction potential maps were prepared for different earthquake magnitudes. The expected results will be shared with the local authorities and important engineering remedial measurements will be proposed to prevent further life losses and to mitigate property losses.     

The Use of Rock Mass Classification Systems to Estimate the Modulus and Strength of Jointed Rock

Three-dimensional, elastic and elasto-plastic finite element (FE) programs have permitted calculation of the displacements and the factor of safety (FOS) for the excavation for a tower, 132.70 m high (above foundation) on the island of Tenerife. The tower is supported by a 2 m thick reinforced concrete slab on jointed, vesicular and weathered basalt and scoria. The installation of rod extensometers at different depths below the slab has permitted comparison between measured and calculated displacements and the estimation of in situ deformation modulus. The moduli deduced from the simple empirical equations proposed by Hoek et al. (In: NARMS-TAC, 2002) and Gokceoglu et al. (Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 40:701–710, 2003) as a function of GSI, and Nicholson and Bieniawski (Int J Min Geol Eng 8:181–202, 1990) as a function of RMR, provide an acceptable fit with the measured settlements in this type of rock. Good correlation is also obtained with the empirical equation presented by Verman et al. (Rock Mech Rock Eng 30(3):121–127, 1997) that incorporates the influence of confining stress in the deformation modulus. The FOS obtained from different correlations with geomechanical classifications is within a relatively narrow range. These results increase our confidence in the use of classification schemes to estimate the deformation and stability in jointed rock.     

Convergence of iterative coupling for coupled flow and geomechanics

In this paper, we study solving iteratively the coupling of flow and mechanics. We demonstrate the stability and convergence of two widely used schemes: the undrained split method and the fixed stress split method. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such results have been rigorously obtained and published in the scientific literature. In addition, we propose a new stress split method, with faster convergence rate than known schemes. These results are specially important today due to the interest in hydraulic fracturing (Dean and Schmidt SPE J. 14:707–714, 2009; Ji et al. SPE J. 14:423–430, 2009; Samier and De Gennaro 2007; Settari and Maurits SPE J. 3:219–226, 1998), in oil and gas shale reservoirs.     

Investigation of the variability of strong ground motions from Vrancea earthquakes

A systematic investigation of the applicability of several ground motion prediction models for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source is conducted in this research. Two ground motion prediction models recommended by previous evaluations (Vacareanu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 11(6):1867–1884, 2013a; Pavel et al. in Earthq Struct 6(1):1–18, 2014), as well as two new state-of-the-art ground motion prediction equations (Vacareanu et al. in J Earthq Eng, 2013b; Earthq Struct 6(2):141–161, 2014) are tested using an increased strong ground motion database consisting of 150 recordings from Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes. The evaluation is performed by using several goodness-of-fit parameters from the literature. Moreover, the applicability of the single-station sigma method is also investigated by using the same strong ground motion database recorded in 30 seismic stations from southern and eastern Romania. The influence of the soil conditions on the numerical results obtained in this study is investigated and discussed using the results provided by the analysis of variance method. The impact of the single-station standard deviation on the levels of seismic hazard is also assessed in this study, and the results show, in the analyzed cases, significant reductions of the hazard levels.     

Reply to ‘Comment on “The beginnings of hydrous mantle wedge melting” by Till et al.’ by Green, Rosenthal and Kovacs

The comment of Green et al. debates the interpretation of the temperature of the H₂O-saturated peridotite solidus and presence of silicate melt in the experiments of Till et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:669–688, 2012) at <1,000?°C. The criticisms presented in their comment do not invalidate any of the most compelling observations of Till et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:669–688, 2012) as discussed in the following response, including the changing minor element and Mg# composition of the solid phases with increasing temperature in our experiments with 14.5?wt% H₂O at 3.2?GPa, as well as the results of our chlorite peridotite melting experiments with 0.7?wt% H₂O. The point remains that Till et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:669–688, 2012) present data that call into question the H₂O-saturated peridotite solidus temperature preferred by Green (Tectonophysics 13(1–4):47–71, 1972; Earth Planet Sci Lett 19(1):37–53, 1973; Can Miner 14:255–268, 1976); Millhollen et al. (J Geol 82(5):575–587, 1974); Mengel and Green (Stability of amphibole and phlogopite in metasomatized peridotite under water-saturated and water-undersaturated conditions, Geological Society of Australia Special Publication, Blackwell, pp 571-581, 1989); Wallace and Green (Mineral Petrol 44:1–19, 1991) and Green et al. (Nature 467(7314):448–451, 2010).     

Applicability of different ground-motion prediction models for northern Iran

A total of 163 free-field acceleration time histories recorded at epicentral distances of up to 200 km from 32 earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging from M _w 4.9 to 7.4 have been used to investigate the predictive capabilities of the local, regional, and next generation attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations and determine their applicability for northern Iran. Two different statistical approaches, namely the likelihood method (LH) of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:341–348, 2004) and the average log-likelihood method (LLH) of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234–3247, 2009), have been applied for evaluation of these models. The best-fitting models (considering both the LH and LLH results) over the entire frequency range of interest are those of Ghasemi et al. (Seismol 13:499–515, 2009a) and Soghrat et al. (Geophys J Int 188:645–679, 2012) among the local models, Abrahamson and Silva (Earthq Spectra 24:67–97, 2008) and Chiou and Youngs (Earthq Spectra 24:173–215, 2008) among the NGA models, and finally Akkar and Bommer (Seism Res Lett 81:195–206, 2010) among the regional models.     

Paleogeographical restoration and ramp tectonic evidence in Tunisian Tellian domain: Ain El Bey-Bou Awen area

The imbrication’s area in northern Tunisia is the most external segment of Alpine range, where several associated folds types with thrust ramps are recognized within imbricate units beneath Numidian front slope. Their presence help to understand thrusting mechanisms installation through studied area. In fact, this zone was considered as a result of Paleogene gravitary slop (Kujawski (Ann Miner Géol Tunis (24):281, 1969); Caire (Ann Min Géol Tunis 26:87–110, 1973); Rouvier 1977), which is proved to be affected by major deep decollement, given rise to various structures, some are propagation folds, specific of foreland front, limited to this area, and those in more external position: Tunisian Atlas (Creusot et al. (C R Acad Sci Paris 314(Sér II):961–965, 1992); Ouali and Mercier (PII: S0191-8141(97):00048-5, 1997); Ouali 1984; Ahmadi et al. (J Struct Geol 28:721–728, 2006)). Various categories of fold ramps could be identified: frontal folds ramp NE–SW and others as lateral or oblique ramp with NW–SE trend (Aridhi et al. (C R Geosci 343:360–369, 2011)). The relation between various structures has been used as recognition tools of thrusting sequences and to propose a new deformation chronology. Delimited outcropping of these structures between two both parallel faults strikes with regional displacement, leads to interpret these faults as cogenetic tear faults of propagation thrusts; this fault separates two domains with different deformation styles from each other side.     

Comment on “A Comparison of Modified Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,Fuzzy Weights of Evidence,and Logistic Regression for Mapping Mineral Prospectivity” by Daojun Zhang,Frits Agterberg,Qiuming Cheng,and Renguang Zuo Math Geosci DOI 10.1007/s11004-013-9496-8

Despite a missing definition of equivalence of mathematical models or methods by Zhang et al. (Math Geosci, 2013), an “equivalence” (Zhang et al., Math Geosci, 2013, p. 6,7,8,14) of modified weights-of-evidence (Agterberg, Nat Resour Res 20:95–101, 2011) and logistic regression does not generally exist. Its alleged proof is based on a previously conjectured linear relationship between weights of evidence and logistic regression parameters (Deng, Nat Resour Res 18:249–258, 2009), which does not generally exist either (Schaeben and van den Boogaart, Nat Resour Res 20:401–406, 2011). In fact, an extremely simple linear relationship exists only if the predictor variables are conditionally independent given the target variable, in which case the contrasts, i.e., the differences of the weights, are equal to the logistic regression parameters. Thus, weights-of-evidence is the special case of logistic regression if the predictor variables are binary and conditionally independent given the target variable.     

Ultimate Bearing Capacity Prediction of Eccentrically Inclined Loaded Strip Footings

Extensive laboratory model tests have been carried out on a strip footing resting over dry sand bed subjected to eccentrically inclined load to determine the ultimate bearing capacity (Patra et al. in Int J Geotech Eng 6(3):343–352, 2012a.  https://doi.org/10.3328/IJGE.2012.06.03.343-352, Int J Geotech Eng 6(4):507–514, b.  https://doi.org/10.3328/IJGE.2012.06.04.507-514). Similarly, lower bound calculations based on finite element method were performed to compute the bearing capacity of a strip footing subjected to an eccentric and inclined load lying over a cohesionless soil with varying embedment depth and relative density (Krabbenhoft et al. in Int J Geomech ASCE, 2014.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0000332). The load may be applied in two ways namely, towards the center line and away from the center line of the footing. Based on the results (both experimental and numerical analyses), a neural network model is developed to predict the reduction factor that will be used in computing the ultimate bearing capacity of an eccentrically inclined loaded strip footing. This reduction factor (RF) is the ratio of the ultimate bearing capacity of the footing subjected to an eccentrically inclined load to the ultimate bearing capacity of the footing subjected to a centric vertical load. A thorough sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the parameters affecting the reduction factor. Based on the weights of the developed neural network model, a neural interpretation diagram is developed to find out whether the input parameters have direct or inverse effect on the output. A prediction model equation is framed with the trained weights of the neural network as the model parameters. The predictions from ANN, and those from other approaches, are compared with the results computed from both experimentation and FEM analyses. The ANN model results are found to be more accurate and well matched with other results.     

Oxygen fugacity control in piston-cylinder experiments: a re-evaluation

Jakobsson (Contrib Miner Petrol 164(3):397–407, 2012) investigated a double capsule assembly for use in piston-cylinder experiments that would allow hydrous, high-temperature, and high-pressure experiments to be conducted under controlled oxygen fugacity conditions. Using a platinum outer capsule containing a metal oxide oxygen buffer (Ni–NiO or Co–CoO) and H₂O, with an inner gold–palladium capsule containing hydrous melt, this study was able to compare the oxygen fugacity imposed by the outer capsule oxygen buffer with an oxygen fugacity estimated by the AuPdFe ternary system calibrated by Barr and Grove (Contrib Miner Petrol 160(5):631–643, 2010). H₂O loss or gain, as well as iron loss to the capsule walls and carbon contamination, is often observed in piston-cylinder experiments and often go unexplained. Only a few have attempted to actually quantify various aspects of these changes (Brooker et al. in Am Miner 83(9–10):985–994, 1998; Truckenbrodt and Johannes in Am Miner 84:1333–1335, 1999). It was one of the goals of Jakobsson (Contrib Miner Petrol 164(3):397–407, 2012) to address these issues by using and testing the AuPdFe solution model of Barr and Grove (Contrib Miner Petrol 160(5):631–643, 2010), as well as to constrain the oxygen fugacity of the inner capsule. The oxygen fugacities of the analyzed melts were assumed to be equal to those of the solid Ni–NiO and Co–CoO buffers, which is incorrect since the melts are all undersaturated in H₂O and the oxygen fugacities should therefore be lower than that of the buffer by 2 log $a_{{{\text{H}}_{ 2} {\text{O}}}}$ .     

A phase-by-phase upstream scheme that converges to the vanishing capillarity solution for countercurrent two-phase flow in two-rock media

We discuss the convergence of the upstream phase-by-phase scheme (or upstream mobility scheme) towards the vanishing capillarity solution for immiscible incompressible two-phase flows in porous media made of several rock types. Troubles in the convergence were recently pointed out by Mishra and Jaffré (Comput. Geosci. 14, 105–124, 2010) and Tveit and Aavatsmark (Comput. Geosci. 16, 809–825, 2012). In this paper, we clarify the notion of vanishing capillarity solution, stressing the fact that the physically relevant notion of solution differs from the one inferred from the results of Kaasschieter (Comput. Geosci. 3, 23–48, 1999). In particular, we point out that the vanishing capillarity solution depends on the formally neglected capillary pressure curves, as it was recently proven in by Andreianov and Cancès (Comput. Geosci. 17, 551–572, 2013). Then, we propose a numerical procedure based on the hybridization of the interfaces that converges towards the vanishing capillarity solution. Numerical illustrations are provided.     

Impedance Functions of Slab Foundations with Rigid Piles

The earthquake resistant design of structures depends upon the soil-structure interaction during seismic excitation. The dynamic behavior of surface foundations and deep foundations has been investigated by several authors (Gazetas in Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 2(1):2–42, 1983; Pecker in Dynamique des sols. Presses de l’Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Paris, 1984; Sieffert and Cevaer in Manuel des fonctions d’impédance. Ouest-Editions, Nantes, 1992, etc.) but the dynamic behavior of pile-reinforced soils has not been sufficiently studied yet. The design of pile-reinforced soils comprises the design of the rigid piles and the design of the earth-platform. The foundation system studied in this article consists of an earth-platform over a soft ground reinforced by deep piles. In order to understand the dynamic behavior of a rigid pile, a series of dynamic tests is conducted on an experimental site. The vertical and horizontal impedances of the slab foundation are obtained with and without rigid piles. The numerical models are developed to interpret these dynamic tests. The numerical and experimental impedance functions are compared in both the vertical and the horizontal directions. A sensitivity analysis on the influence of the physical and geometrical properties of rigid piles on the impedance functions is presented.     

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters: a comparative study

The purpose of this study is to examine and compare the methodologies being developed in assessing social vulnerability to natural disasters. Existing vulnerability literature shows that two methods have been used in developing social vulnerability indexes: (1) a deductive approach based on a theoretical understanding of relationships and (2) an inductive approach based on statistical relationships (Adger et al. in New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, 2004). Two techniques were also utilized in aggregating social vulnerability indicators: (1) a deductive approach using standardization techniques such as z scores or linear scaling (Wu et al. in Clim Res 22:255?C270, 2002; Chakraborty et al. in Nat Hazards Rev 6(1):23?C33, 2005) and (2) an inductive approach using data-reduction techniques such as factor analysis (Clark et al. in Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 3(1):59?C82, 1998; Cutter et al. Soc Sci Quart 84(2):242?C261, 2003). This study empirically compares deductive and inductive index development and indicator aggregation methods in assessing social vulnerability to natural disasters in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal areas. The aggregated social vulnerability index is used to examine a relationship with disaster losses in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal areas. The results show that coastal counties with more vulnerability in terms of social achieved status are positively associated with disaster damages, while variations in the development of the index using deductive and inductive measurement approaches produce different outcomes.     

Chromite alteration processes within Vourinos ophiolite

The renewed interest in chromite ore deposits is directly related to the increase in Cr price ruled by international market trends. Chromite, an accessory mineral in peridotites, is considered to be a petrogenetic indicator because its composition reflects the degree of partial melting that the mantle experienced while producing the chromium spinel-bearing rock (Burkhard in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 57:1297–1306, 1993). However, the understanding of chromite alteration and metamorphic modification is still controversial (e.g. Evans and Frost in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 39:959–972, 1975; Burkhard in Geochim Cosmochim Acta 57:1297–1306, 1993; Oze et al. in Am J Sci 304:67–101, 2004). Metamorphic alteration leads to major changes in chromite chemistry and to the growth of secondary phases such as ferritchromite and chlorite. In this study, we investigate the Vourinos complex chromitites (from the mines of Rizo, Aetoraches, Xerolivado and Potamia) with respect to textural and chemical analyses in order to highlight the most important trend of alteration related to chromite transformation. The present study has been partially funded by the Aliakmon project in collaboration between the Public Power Corporation of Greece and Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration of Kozani.     

Seismic liquefaction analysis of a reservoir dam foundation in the South–North Water Diversion project in China. Part I: Liquefaction potential assessment

In this paper, the dynamic characteristics of a liquefiable silt substratum within the foundation soil of a reservoir dam in the Tianjin area are investigated by means of standard penetration resistance and dynamic triaxial tests. Properties including N-values, factors influencing liquefaction as a cyclic stress, consolidation pressure, structure, and particle composition are considered in this research. Parameters used to evaluate liquefaction potential are obtained through testing. A comprehensive program based on the Chinese code and standard for geological investigation (Ministry of Water Resources of China 1999a; Ministry of Construction of China 2001a) and Seed’s simplified method (Seed and Idriss 1971; in J Geotech Eng Div ASCE 109(3): 458–482, 1983) was carried out to evaluate the potential of liquefaction within the reservoir dam foundation. Liquefaction potentials were also assessed in response to the Chinese codes for seismic design (Hydropower Research Institute of China 2000; Ministry of Construction of China 2001b). The evaluation shows that saturated surface silt in the reservoir dam foundations is vulnerable to liquefaction at seismic intensities of VII and above. The two assessment methods are in good agreement with each other, and the research results can provide useful information for the safe construction and normal operation of the reservoir.     

Discussion of “From saturated to unsaturated conditions and vice versa” by Martí Lloret-Cabot,Simon J. Wheeler,Jubert A. Pineda,Enrique Romero,and Daichao Sheng (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11440-017-0577-6)

The authors (Lloret-Cabot et al. in Acta Geotech 1–23, 2017) applied the glasgow coupled model (GCM), originally proposed by Wheeler et al. (Géotechnique 53(1):41–54, 2003), to the simulation of several experimental tests that involve transition between saturated and unsaturated states. The authors show qualitatively, but not quantitatively, predictions of GCM for shrinkage during air drying of normally consolidated samples (Fig. 13) under low mechanical stress conditions, without presenting the material parameters. The discussers, who have worked with GCM to model multilayer deposition of tailings/soft soils (Qi in Numerical investigation for slope stability of expansive soils and large strain consolidation of soft soils. Doctoral dissertation, University of Ottawa, 2017; Qi et al. in J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 143(7):04017018, 2017, Qi et al. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 143(7):04017019, 2017), have made quantitative predictions of similar cases. Satisfactory simulations of such cases using GCM are sensitive to the selection of the coupling parameters k₁ and k₂. By considering an alternative analytical form of GCM, an analytical procedure can be derived for calibrating the coupling parameters for problems involving virgin drying.     

Dienerian (Early Triassic) ammonoids from the Candelaria Hills (Nevada, USA) and their significance for palaeobiogeography and palaeoceanography

A well-preserved ammonoid fauna of Early Dienerian age has long been known from the lower portion of the Candelaria Formation in the old Candelaria silver mining district in Mineral and Esmeralda Counties, Nevada, but for a number of reasons, this fauna has never been studied in detail nor illustrated. Previous authors assigned this ammonoid fauna to the Early Dienerian Proptychites candidus Zone of Canada. In reality, it more closely resembles the Tethyan faunas than the higher palaeolatitude Canadian faunas, thus indicating the presence of some degree of equatorial faunal exchange between opposite sides of the Panthalassic Ocean during Early Dienerian time. It also indicates the onset of a provincialism, which contrasts with the cosmopolitan Griesbachian faunas. A rigorous taxonomic analysis of the Candelaria fauna allows us to differentiate the following ten species, which include two new species and one new genus (Mullericeras nov. gen.) belonging to the new family Mullericeratidae: Ambites lilangensis (Krafft, 1909), Ambites aff. radiatus (Brühwiler, Brayard, Bucher and Guodun, 2008), Ussuridiscus sp. indet., ??Koninckites?? aff. kraffti Spath, 1934, Mullericeras spitiense (Krafft, 1909), Mullericeras fergusoni nov. sp., Mullericeras sp. indet., Proptychites haydeni (Krafft, 1909), Proptychites pagei nov. sp., Vavilovites sp. indet. and Parahedenstroemia kiparisovae Shigeta and Zakharov, 2009. This Early Dienerian fauna correlates with the Ambites fauna known from the base of the Ceratite Marls in the Salt Range and from the base of the ??Meekoceras?? beds in Spiti (northern Gondwanian margin). The fauna also permits the precise dating of a shelfal anoxic episode on the equatorial North American margin. This anoxic event correlates in time with similar palaeoceanographic changes in the southern Tethys, which indicates that the Early Triassic biotic recovery was at least partly shaped by such discrete, short events rather than by pervasive and lingering adverse environmental conditions.     

Indirect economic losses of drought under future projections of climate change: a case study for Spain

This study presents the results of numerical simulations of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami in the Bay of Lhok Nga (northwestern coast of Sumatra, Indonesia) integrating sediment erosion and deposition. We investigate the transport of sediment both by suspension and by bedload under different scenarii of long breaking dispersive waves through a series of numerical experiments. The earthquake source model used by Koshimura et al. (Coast Eng J 51:243–273, 2008) with a 25-m dislocation better reproduces the wave travel time, flow depth and inundation area than the other models tested. The model reproduces realistically the pronounced coastal retreat in the northern part of Lhok Nga Bay (retreat ranging between 50 and 150 m), where Paris et al. (Geomorphology 104:59–72, 2009) estimated a mean retreat of 80 m. There is also a good agreement between the simulated area of coastal retreat (195,400 m²) and the field observations (203,200 m²). The simulation may underestimate the volume of tsunami deposits (611,700 m³ vs. 500,000–1,000,000 m³ estimated by Paris et al. (2009). The model fully reproduces the observed thickness of tsunami deposits when considering both bedload and suspension, even if bedload transport dominates. Limitations are due to micro-scale topographic, anthropic features (which are not always represented by the DEM) and the amount of debris which may influence flow dynamics and sediment transport.