Global climate change and variability and its influence on Alpine climate — concepts and observations

Summary The paper discusses annual to decadal climate variability and change in the European Alps by utilizing the procedure of synoptic downscaling, i.e. it investigates the influence of global to continental scale synoptic structures and processes on the regional climate of the Alps. The European Alps lie to the southeast and under the right exit zone of the southwest-northeast oriented axis of the polar front jet over the North Atlantic ocean, in a transition zone between the Azores high and Icelandic low, between oceanic and continental and between Mediterranean and North Atlantic climates. Together with complex topographically induced phenomena like lee cyclogenesis, orographic precipitation, strong downslope winds and thermotopographical circulation systems, this transitional position makes climate studies in the Alps even more interesting. Only a minor correlation can be observed between global climate variability and Alpine climate. In contrast, the Alpine climate is strongly related to processes over the North Atlantic ocean and its sea ice system (e.g. it has a high correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the dynamics and position of the Icelandic low), an area with a rather low climate prediction potential.Since the early 1970's (or just after the Great Salinity Anomaly in the North Atlantic Ocean) the intensification of the wintertime westerly jet over the North Atlantic area led to a noticeable northwest-southeast mass transport in the exit area of the jet over Central Europe, leading to pressure and temperature rises and an increase in the amount of precipitation. There is a question over whether this phenomenon is a consequence of natural climate variability or the beginning of an anthropogenic climate change.With 16 Figures     

Historicizing climate change—engaging new approaches to climate and history

This introduction to a special issue of Climatic Change argues that it is timely and welcome to intensify historical research into climate change and climate as factors of history. This is also already an ongoing trend in many disciplines. The article identifies two main strands in historical work on climate change, both multi-disciplinary: one that looks for it as a driver of historical change in human societies, the other that analyzes the intellectual and scientific roots of the climate system and its changes. In presenting the five papers in this special issue the introduction argues that it is becoming increasingly important to also situate “historicizing climate change” within the history of thought and practice in wider fields, as a matter of intellectual, political, and social history and theory. The five papers all serve as examples of intellectual, political, and social responses to climate-related phenomena and their consequences (ones that have manifested themselves relatively recently and are predominantly attributable to anthropogenic climate change). The historicizing work that these papers perform lies in the analysis of issues that are rising in societies related to climate change in its modern anthropogenic version. The history here is not so much about past climates, although climate change itself is always directly or indirectly present in the story, but rather about history as the social space where encounters take place and where new conditions for humans and societies and their companion species and their life worlds in natures and environments are unfolding and negotiated. With climate change as a growing phenomenon historicizing climate change in this version will become increasingly relevant.     

Unstoppable climate change? The influence of fatalistic beliefs about climate change on behavioural change and willingness to pay cross-nationally

Although climate change is an urgent problem, behavioural and policy responses have not yet been sufficient to either reduce the volume of greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to a disrupted climate system. Significant efforts have been made to raise public awareness of the dangers posed by climate change. One reason why these efforts might not be sufficient is rooted in people’s need to feel efficacy to solve complex problems; the belief that climate change is unstoppable might thwart action even among the concerned. This paper tests for the effect of fatalistic beliefs on behavioural change and willingness to pay to address climate change using two cross-national surveys representing over 50,000 people in 48 nations.

Key policy insights

• The perception that climate change poses a risk or danger increases the likelihood of behavioural change and willingness to pay to address climate change.

• The belief that climate change is unstoppable reduces the behavioural and policy response to climate change and moderates risk perception.

• Communicators and policy leaders should carefully frame climate change as a difficult, yet solvable, problem to circumvent fatalistic beliefs.

     

How harmful are restrictions on adapting to climate change?

The dominant assumption in economic models of climate policy remains that adaptation will be implemented in an optimal manner. There are, however, several reasons why optimal levels of adaptation may not be attainable. This paper investigates the effects of suboptimal levels of adaptation caused by different types of adaptation restrictions, on the composition and level of climate change costs and on welfare. We find that especially restrictions to the effectiveness of adaptation at more extreme levels of climate change can be very harmful. Furthermore we show that the potential of mitigation to offset suboptimal adaptation varies from being essential in case adaptation becomes ineffective at higher temperature increases, to being largely ineffective in case of short-term inaction. However, in all cases the short-term recommendation is to increase mitigation levels slightly above what is normally recommended, and to keep mitigation policies flexible enough to be able to respond when adaptation restrictions become more prominent. It is clear that by reducing adaptation restrictions, in combination with adjusting the optimal level of mitigation may keep the costs of adaptation restrictions limited, and thus generally it is very harmful to ignore existing restrictions on adaptation when devising (efficient) climate policies.     

Implementing climate change adaptation: lessons from India’s national adaptation fund on climate change (NAFCC)

With poverty alleviation and sustainable development as key imperatives for a developing economy like India, what drives the resource-constrained state governments to prioritize actions that address climate change impacts? We examine this question and argue that without access to additional earmarked financial resources, climate action would get overshadowed by developmental priorities and effective mainstreaming might not be possible. A systematic literature review was carried out to draw insights from the current state of implementation of adaptation projects, programmes and schemes at the subnational levels, along with barriers to mainstreaming climate change adaptation. The findings from a literature review were supplemented with lessons emerging from the implementation of India’s National Adaptation Fund on Climate Change (NAFCC). The results of this study underscore the scheme’s relevance.

Key policy insights

• Experience with NAFCC implementation reveals that states require sustained ‘handholding’ in terms of financial, technical and capacity support until climate change issues are fully understood and embedded in the policy landscape.

• Domestic sources of finance are critically important in the absence of predictable and adequate adaptation finance from international sources.

• The dedicated window for climate finance fosters a spirit of competitive federalism among states and encourages enhanced climate action.

• Enhanced budgetary allocation to NAFCC to strengthen the state-level adaptation response and create capacity to mainstream climate change concerns in state planning frames, is urgently needed.

     

Capelin migrations and climate change – a modelling analysis

The capelin is a small pelagic fish that performs long distance migrations. It is a key species in the Barents Sea ecosystem and its distribution is highly climate dependent. Here we use an individual based model to investigate consequences of global warming on capelin distribution and population dynamics. The model relies on input on physics and plankton from a biophysical ocean model, and the entire life cycle of capelin including spawning of eggs, larval drift and adult movement is simulated. Spawning day and adult movement strategies are adapted by a genetic algorithm. Spawning has to take place in designated near-shore spawning areas. The output generated by the model is capelin migration/distribution and population dynamics. We present simulations with present day climate and a future climate scenario. For the present climate the model evolves a spatial distribution resembling typical spatial dynamics of capelin with the coasts of Northern Norway and Murman as the main spawning areas. For the climate change simulation, the capelin is predicted to shift spawning eastwards and also utilize new spawning areas along Novaya Zemlya. There is also a shift in the adult distribution towards the north eastern part of the Barents Sea and earlier spawning associated with the warming.     

Changes in the rainfall–streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on...     

The ‘ultimate objective’ of the framework convention on climate change requires a new approach in climate change research

In the Framework Convention on Climate Change an ultimate objective is formulated that calls for stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, safeguard food supply and enable sustainable development to proceed in a sustainable manner. This paper addresses the possible contribution of science to translate this rather vague and ambiguous objective into more practicable terms. We propose a regionalized, risk-based six-step approach that couples an analysis of ecosystem vulnerability to the results of simulations of climate change. An ultimate objective level could be determined in terms of stabilized concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The level and timing of this stabilization would be determined by a political appreciation of associated risks for managed and unmanaged ecosystems. These risks would be assessed by region in an internationally coordinated scientific effort, followed by a global synthesis.     

Who determines transformational change in development and climate finance?

The language of transformational change is increasingly applied to climate policy, and particularly in climate finance. Transformational change in this context is used with respect to low-carbon development futures, with the emphasis on mitigation and GHG metrics. But, for many developing countries, climate policy is embedded in a larger context of sustainable development objectives, defined through a national process. Viewed thus, there is a potential tension between mitigation-focused transformation and nationally driven sustainable development. We explore this tension in the context of operationalizing the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which has to deal with the fundamental tension between country ownership and transformational change. In relation to climate finance, acceptance of diverse interpretations of transformation are essential conditions for avoiding risk of transformational change becoming a conditionality on development. We further draw lessons from climate governance and the development aid literature. The article examines how in the case of both the Clean Development Mechanism and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions, there has been limited success in achieving both development objectives and ‘nationally appropriate’ mitigation. The development aid literature points to process-based approaches as a possible alternative, but there are limitations to this approach.

Policy relevance

The concept of transformational change has gained prominence in climate finance. The conundrum facing the GCF is that it seeks to support transformational change in the climate realm, in a context where countries may have competing priorities. Balancing or even transcending this tension is a fundamental design challenge for the GCF. A primary focus on mitigation, particularly if metrics of performance are tied exclusively to GHG reduction, raise concerns about diluting ownership by recipient countries and evokes concerns of conditionality or worse. The literature on development assistance has explored options notably conditions on process and adequate capacity, and suggests that there are no short cuts to building domestic ownership. Actors on climate change need to avoid the risk that transformational change is perceived as, and becomes, an imposed condition. The risk that transformation change, operationalized in the context of unequal power relations, becomes an imposition on development, needs to be avoided.     

Cairo and climate change: a win–win opportunity

The landmark Program of Action agreed to at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo calls for a wide range of population-related policies motivated primarily by the improvement of individual well being. Currently, a funding shortfall threatens continued progress toward the Cairo goals. This shortfall risks missing an opportunity not only to improve the lives of individuals around the world, but also to reduce the environmental consequences of population growth. Recent estimates of environmental externalities to childbearing associated with global climate change indicate that climate-related returns to investments in such policies could be of the same order of magnitude as the investments themselves. Thus, continued support of the Cairo program is clearly a “win–win” strategy.     

A note on the break‐up of lakes and rivers as indicators of climate change

Abstract

A detailed examination has been made of the relationship between the space and time variations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the equatorial eastern‐Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in different seasons for the 108‐year period, 1871–1978. There is a strong inverse relationship between the two. The correlation coefficients between All‐India monsoon rainfall and the sea surface temperature anomaly for the concurrent season; June, July and August (JJA) and for the succeeding seasons; September, October and November (SON) and December, January and February (DJF) are consistently and highly significant. Even a random sample of 50 years gave values significant at the 0.1 percent level. The sliding window correlation analysis of 10‐, 20‐ and 30‐year widths indicates that the relationships between All‐India monsoon rainfall and the sea surface temperature anomaly for the concurrent JJA and the succeeding SON and DJF seasons exhibit stability and consistency in significance. For contiguous meteorological sub‐divisions west of longitude 80°E the relationship is highly significant for JJA and for succeeding SON and DJF seasons.     

Evaluating climate change at the Croatian Adriatic from observations and regional climate models’ simulations

The 2m temperature (T2m) and precipitation from five regional climate models (RCMs), which participated in the ENSEMBLES project and were integrated at a 25-km horizontal resolution, are compared with observed climatological data from 13 stations located in the Croatian coastal zone. The twentieth century climate was simulated by forcing RCMs with identical boundary conditions from the ERA-40 reanalysis and the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model (GCM); climate change in the twenty-first century is based on the A1B scenario and assessed from the GCM-forced RCMs’ integrations. When forced by ERA-40, most RCMs exhibit cold bias in winter which contributes to an overestimation of the T2m annual cycle amplitude and the errors in interannual variability are in all RCMs smaller than those in the climatological mean. All models underestimate observed warming trends in the period 1951–2010. The largest precipitation biases coincide with locations/seasons with small observed amounts but large precipitation amounts near high orography are relatively well reproduced. When forced by the same GCM all RCMs exhibit a warming in the cold half-year and a cooling (or weak warming) in the warm period, implying a strong impact of GCM boundary forcing. The future eastern Adriatic climate is characterised by a warming, up to +5 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century; for precipitation, no clear signal is evident in the first half of the twenty-first century, but a reduction in precipitation during summer prevails in the second half. It is argued that land-sea contrast and complex coastal configuration of the Croatian coast, i.e. multitude of island and well indented coastline, have a major impact on small-scale variability. Orography plays important role only at small number of coastal locations. We hypothesise that the parameterisations related to land surface processes and soil hydrology have relatively stronger impact on variability than orography at those locations that include a relatively large fraction of land (most coastal stations), but affecting less strongly locations at the Adriatic islands.     

Effects of “realistic” land-cover change on a greenhouse-warmed African climate

The primary goal of this investigation is to focus on a realistic scenario for simulating impacts on regional African climate of future deforestation in a greenhouse-warmed world. Combined effects of plausible land-cover change and greenhouse warming are assessed by time-slice simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for the middle of the twenty first century. Three time-slice integrations have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat AGCM incorporating a zooming technique to achieve a resolution of about 100 km over Africa. A control run for the current climate is forced by observed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the observed vegetation distribution is specified from a new vegetation database, in order to improve the geographical distribution and properties of the vegetation cover. Future SST changes are derived from a transient coupled atmosphere–ocean simulation for scenario B2 of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future vegetation changes are specified from a simulation of scenario B2 with the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) developed at the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands (RIVM). The results show that land surface processes can locally modulate greenhouse warming effects for African climate, with reductions of surface transpiration and small increases of surface temperature. Deforestation of tropical Africa has overall only a marginal effect on precipitation because of a compensatory increase in moisture convergence. Energy budget analyses show that increases in surface temperature are produced both by increases of greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration from the increase in downward atmospheric longwave radiation, and by African tropical deforestation from the resulting reduction in transpiration. This study indicates that realistic land-use changes, though of smaller amplitude than greenhouse gas forcing, may have a small regional effect in projections of future climate.     

The role of social capital for farmers’ climate change adaptation in Lancang River basin in China

This paper distinguishes between bridging and bonding social capital to assess their roles for individual farmers’ adaptation strategies taken through technology adoption. Based on primary data collected in Langcang River (LCR) basin area in southwestern China, the paper finds: (1) adaptation measures have been widely taken by surveyed households, but non-infrastructure-based measures are more prevalent than infrastructure-based measures and (2) surveyed households have strong social capital while having weak bridging social capital. Their bonding social capital has significantly positive relationship with their adaptation decisions, but bridging social capital does not have such statistically significant relationship. It recommends that the governments contemplate carefully how to help the poor to get a good combination of bonding and bridging social capital when designing policies to help the rural poor to improve their long-term adaptive capacity and achieve sustainable rural development.     

Progress and evaluation of international climate change cooperation北大核心CSCD

气候变化是当前世界面临的巨大挑战,应对气候变化需要国际间合作已成为普遍共识。IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第三工作组(WGⅢ)报告第十四章回顾了IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)以来气候变化国际合作的进展,基于所提出的评价体系对进展进行了系统评估。报告认为,AR5以来气候变化国际合作最重要的进展是基于《巴黎协定》建立的以国家自主贡献为核心的全球行动模式;除《巴黎协定》外,国际上也形成了多种形式的合作机制,其中,气候俱乐部是国际气候合作研究的新热点。对于《巴黎协定》的有效性,目前国际社会存在正反两种观点,并认为《巴黎协定》能否达成既定目标取决于是否有能力强化全球下一步的集体气候行动目标和实施。     

Spatial and temporal analysis of climate change in Hispañola

Climate change in Hispañola is studied since 1900 using a variety of datasets. The longer station-observed temperature record has a significant trend of 0.012 °C/year, while the shorter reanalysis datasets exhibit faster warming, suggesting accelerating greenhouse radiative absorption and Hadley circulation. Rainfall trends are insignificant in the observed period, but a CMIP5 model simulation predicts a significant drying trend. The spatial pattern of climate trends was mapped with reanalysis fields and indicates a faster rate of warming over the eastern half of the island, where observations are dense and the drying trend is greatest. Northeasterly trade winds strengthen on the Atlantic side of the island. While trends intensify in the satellite era compared to the earlier 20th century, part of that effect is ascribed to an upturn in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.