Deterministic and probabilistic floor response spectra

The paper presents a comparative study for computing floor response spectra (FRS) for complex structures. For the purpose of validation and evaluation of the methods for practical application, a systematic comparison of two concepts, classical deterministic and probabilistic, was carried out as an example of a nuclear power plants structure. The deterministic method utilizes time history analyses compatible with the prescribed design response spectrum. The probabilistic method uses an analysis of random vibrations for defining the probabilistic FRS influenced by random seismic soil movement. The seismic input is a power spectral density function (PSDF) compatible with the design response spectrum. The probabilistic approach based on PSDF provides satisfying FRS with far less effort and time consumption needed for calculation.     

Shaking hazard compatible methodology for probabilistic assessment of permanent ground displacement across earthquake faults

A methodology for probabilistic hazard assessment of permanent displacement across faults caused by earthquake rupture is presented, compatible with region specific models for ground shaking hazard in California, developed earlier by the authors and coworkers. Assessment of permanent dislocations across faults is important for the design and retrofit of highway bridges and tunnels crossing faults, as well as for other lifelines crossing faults, such as aqueducts, water and gas lines, etc. The methodology is illustrated for two strike-slip faults (prototypes of Class A and Class B faults in California), for 50 years exposure. The illustrations show that, for given seismic moment rate, the hazard estimates are quite sensitive to how the seismic moment is distributed over earthquake magnitudes. They also show that the hazard is small even for very small levels of displacement, in contrast to ground shaking hazard, which is due to the fact that only one fault contributes to the hazard and not every event on that fault necessarily affects the site.     

Methodological considerations of probabilistic seismic hazard mapping

This paper presents a methodological discussion of several issues involved with the development of maps of seismic hazard. The points made are illustrated with worked examples, using Scotland as an illustrative case. The issues treated are divided under three headings: matters relating to the difference between hazard maps and site studies; matters concerned with the technical issues of mapping, and matters relating to the use to which hazard maps will be put. It is concluded that a hazard map cannot be an all-purpose substitute for site-specific studies, owing to the impracticality of ensuring all-round conservatism in a hazard map, and the lower level of detail (more broad-brush approach) in a regional mapping study. Also, since users of a hazard map are not necessarily going to be engineers, consideration should be given to the provision of maps expressed in parameters other than physical measures of ground motion. Intensity is useful here, since it relates to actual earthquake experience and to damage. One can also move to making maps of generic seismic risk even before one has data on the distribution of exposure and vulnerability. Discussion is made of the issue of testing the validity of hazard maps against real experience, with examples. If a map can be shown to accord with real observations, then it can be treated with greater confidence by users.     

Hazard-consistent earthquake scenarios

Earthquake-resistant design and seismic analysis often require the earthquake action to be represented in the form of acceleration time-histories. Real accelerograms can be selected based on matching an earthquake scenario, defined by magnitude and distance, and scaled if necessary. The scaled accelerograms should reflect the hazard in terms of the parameters that characterise the inelastic demand on structures, including response spectral ordinates, duration and energy content. In order to maintain realistic ground motions, the scaling factors should not differ greatly from unity. It is found that in many cases, where the hazard is influenced by more than one seismic source, it is impossible to define a single earthquake scenario that is compatible with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Even if a hazard-consistent scenario can be defined, there are difficulties encountered in using the results to select and scale real accelerograms.     

Seismic hazard assessment for derivation of earthquake scenarios in Risk-UE

The main features of the Risk-UE project approach to assessing the ground-shaking (and related hazards) distribution within urban areas are described, as a basis for developing seismic damage scenarios for European cities. Emphasis was placed in the project on adoption of homogeneous criteria in the quantitative treatment of seismicity and in constructing the ground-shaking scenarios, despite wide differences in amount and quality of data available for the cities involved. The initial steps of the approach include treatment of the regional seismotectonic setting and the geotechnical zonation of the urban area, while the hazard assessment itself takes the form of both a deterministic analysis, and of a probabilistic, constant-hazard spectra analysis. Systematic 1D site response analyses were used, mostly in the softer soil zones, to modify (when needed) the obtained ground motion maps. Earthquake induced hazard effects, such as liquefaction and landsliding, are also briefly dealt with at the end.     

一种强震概率预测方法

介绍了利用Logistic回归进行地震危险性概率预测方法,对以新西兰地区相同时间段内地震活动性b值和等地震个数所覆盖空间区域的半径r为例,讨论了地震活动性参数的变化和强震发生的概率关系。研究表明,该地区强震发生的概率总体上与强震发生前一年半时间窗内的地震活动性资料计算的b值呈正相关关系,与r值呈负相关关系。该方法可以推广应用于研究其他异常分布和强震的概率统计关系。     

Sensitivity analysis on the input parameters in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

A project has been implemented in recent years for assessing seismic hazard in the Italian territory on probabilistic bases, to be used as scientific background for the revision of the current seismic zonation. A consolidated approach was considered for the purpose; seismic hazard was estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration and macroseismic intensity. As the computer code employed allows the user to make specific choices on some input data, some rather unorthodox decisions were taken regarding earthquake catalogue completeness, seismicity rates, boundaries of the seismogenic zones, definition of the maximum magnitude, attenuation relation, etc. The overwhelming amount of geological and seismological data for Italy (just consider, for example, that the earthquake catalogue collects events which occurred over the last ten centuries) permits the operator to make different choices, more or less cautiously. It is quite interesting, then, to evaluate the influence of the specific choices on the final hazard results as a comparison to traditional possibilities. The tests performed clearly indicate the critical choices and quantify their contribution. In particular, we consider thorough comprehension of the space geometry of the earthquake source boundaries and the adequacy of the attenuation relation in modelling the radiation pattern very important.     

新版地震区划图地震活动性模型与参数确定

地震活动性模型和地震动预测模型是概率地震危险性分析的两个核心。在新版地震区划图中,依据板内地震活动空间不均匀性分布的特点,在概率地震危险性分析方法(CPSHA)中采用了由地震统计区、背景潜在震源区和构造潜在震源区构成的三级层次性潜在震源区模型,并构建了相应的地震活动性模型。本文在论述CPSHA方法及其地震活动性模型基本概念的基础上,重点介绍了新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的三级潜在震源区模型的构成、地震活动性假定和基本特点,同时,也对新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的重要参数确定思路、方法与结果进行了介绍。本文将为更好地认识与理解我国新版地震动参数区划图提供有益的参考。     

Ground motion and probabilistic hazard

It might be thought that an empirical ground motion prediction model has only to describe the variations in the input data set as accurately as possible in order to be useful, with the proviso that the data set is reasonably extensive and well-selected. If the model is to be used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, however, the model will probably be subject to extrapolation beyond the parameter space within which it was constructed, especially for hazard at low annual probabilities. In this case, features of the model, especially its functional form, may turn out to have unexpected and undesirable implications. The end result can be conclusions about the hazard that are clearly not in accordance with commonsense. In this study, two test cases are used to examine the application of some recent ground motion models to probabilistic hazard studies. Problems are found that suggest that, although a ground motion model may be a correct representation of its data set, the effects of the functional form applied can be such that it becomes doubtful whether the model should be used for probabilistic hazard purposes.     

Deterministic Earthquake Scenarios for the City of Sofia

— The city of Sofia is exposed to a high seismic risk. Macroseismic intensities in the range of VIII – X (MSK) can be expected in the city. The earthquakes that can influence the hazard in Sofia originate either beneath the city or are caused by seismic sources located within a radius of 40 km. The city of Sofia is also prone to the remote Vrancea seismic zone in Romania, and particularly vulnerable are the long-period elements of the built environment. The high seismic risk and the lack of instrumental recordings of the regional seismicity make the use of appropriate credible earthquake scenarios and ground-motion modelling approaches for defining the seismic input for the city of Sofia necessary. Complete synthetic seismic signals, due to several earthquake scenarios, were computed along chosen geological profiles crossing the city, applying a hybrid technique, which combines the modal summation technique and finite differences. The modelling takes into account simultaneously the geotechnical properties of the site, the position and geometry of the seismic source and the mechanical properties of the propagation medium. Acceleration, velocity and displacement time histories and related quantities of earthquake engineering interest (e.g., response spectra, ground-motion amplification along the profiles) have been supplied. The approach applied in this study allows us to obtain the definition of the seismic input at low cost, exploiting large quantities of existing data (e.g. geotechnical, geological, seismological). It may be efficiently used to estimate the ground motion for the purposes of microzonation, urban planning, retrofitting or insurance of the built environment, etc.     

Long period microtremors, microseisms and earthquake damage: Northridge, CA, earthquake of 17 January 1994

Three studies of site amplification factors, based on the recorded aftershocks, and one study based on strong motion data, are compared one with another and with the observed distribution of damage from the Northridge, CA, earthquake of 17 January 1994 (M_L=6.4). In the epicentral area, when the peak ground velocities are larger than v_m≈15 cm/s, nonlinear response of soil begins to distort the amplification factors determined from small amplitude (linear) wave motion. Moving into the area of near-field and strong ground motion (v_m>30 cm/s), the site response becomes progressively more affected by the nonlinear soil response. Based on the published results, it is concluded that site amplification factors determined from small amplitude waves (aftershocks, small earthquakes, coda waves) and their transfer-function representation may be useful for small and distant earthquake motions, where soils and structures respond to earthquake waves in a linear manner. However in San Fernando Valley, during the Northridge earthquake, the observed distribution of damage did not correlate with site amplification determined from spectra of recorded weak motions. Mapping geographical distribution of site amplification using other than very strong motion data, therefore appears to be of little use for seismic hazard analyses.     

Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal

Probabilistic seismic hazard for Mainland Portugal was re-evaluated in order to perform its disaggregation. Seismic hazard was disaggregated considering different spaces of random variables, namely, univariate conditional hazard distributions of M (magnitude), R (source-to-site distance) and ε (deviation of ground motion to the median value predicted by an attenuation model), bivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R and X–Y (seismic source latitude and longitude) or multivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R–ε and M–(X–Y)–ε. The main objective of the present work was achieved, as it was possible, based on the modal values of the above mentioned distributions, to characterize the scenarios that dominate some seismic hazard levels of the 278 Mainland Portuguese counties. In addition, results of 4D disaggregation analysis, in M–(X–Y)–ε, pointed out the existence of one geographic location shared by the dominant scenario of most analyzed counties, especially for hazard levels correspondent to high return periods. Those dominant scenarios are located offshore at a distance of approximately 70 km WSW of S. Vicente cape. On the other hand, the lower the return period the higher is the number of modal scenarios in the neighbourhood of the analyzed site. One may conclude that modal scenarios reproduce hazard target values in each site with great accuracy enabling the applications derived from those scenarios (e.g. loss evaluation) to be associated to a hazard level exceedance probability.     

Simplified method for generating slope seismic deformation hazard curve

A simplified method for generating slope deformation hazard curve that takes into account the variations of input parameters is presented in this paper. The main assumption in the new approach is that the occurrence of peak slope deformation is Poisson׳s process. The procedure is based on logic tree analysis, commercial software and routines programmed by the authors for generating sets of input files, and forming slope performance curve. The methodology was applied to a real landslide in order to demonstrate the advantages and limitations of the proposed approach. The results of the analysis showed the influence of the certain input factors on sliding displacement as well as the advantages of employing continuum mechanics approach.     

Seismic hazard and risk in Shanghai and estimation of expected building damage

The People's Republic of China is in the process of rapid demographic, economic and urban change including nationwide engineering and building construction at an unprecedented scale. The mega-city of Shanghai is at the centre of China's modernisation. Rapid urbanisation and building growth have increased the exposure of people and property to natural disasters. The seismic hazard of Shanghai and its vicinity is presented from a seismogenic free-zone methodology. A PGA value of 49 cm s⁻² and a maximum intensity value of VII for the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale (a scale similar to the Modified Mercalli) for a 99% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years are determined for Shanghai city. The potential building damage for three independent districts of the city centre named Putuo, Nanjing Road and Pudong are calculated using damage vulnerability matrices. It is found that old civil houses of brick and timber are the most vulnerable buildings with potentially a mean probability value of 7.4% of this building structure type exhibiting the highest damage grade at intensity VII.     

全球地震模型(GEM)研究进展综述及应用前景展望

本文综述了全球地震模型(GEM)组织的工作目标、主要职能、工具(OpenQuake软件)和研究成果,并对GEM今后的发展和应用趋势进行了展望。借鉴GEM和OpenQuake,可以进一步完善我国的地震危险性分析模型,提升大型活动断裂带附近大城市和重大工程设施地震危险性分析的科学性。     

全球地震模型（GEM）研究进展综述及应用前景展望

本文综述了全球地震模型（GEM）组织的工作目标、主要职能、主要工具（OpenQuake软件）、主要研究成果,并对GEM今后的发展和应用趋势进行了展望。借鉴GEM和OpenQuake,可以进一步完善我国的地震危险性分析模型,提升大型活动断裂带附近大城市和重大工程设施地震危险性分析的科学性。     

Accounting for site effect in probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard for Romania and Bucharest: a case of deep seismicity in Vrancea zone

The paper presents recent achievements in evaluations of site-dependent seismic hazard in Romania and the capital city of Bucharest caused by the Vrancea focal zone (SE-Carpathians). The zone is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depths 60–170 km. The database that was used for the hazard evaluation includes parameters of seismicity, ground-motion source scaling and attenuation models (Fourier amplitude spectra), and site-dependent spectral amplification functions. Ground-motion characteristics were evaluated on the basis of several hundred records from more than 120 small magnitude (M 3.5–5) earthquakes occurred in 1996–2001 and a few tens of acceleration records obtained during four large (M 7.4, 7.2, 6.9 and 6.3) earthquakes. The data provide a basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and MSK intensity using Fourier amplitude spectra for various exceedance probabilities or average return periods. It has been shown that the influence of geological factors plays very important role in distribution of earthquake ground-motion parameters along the territory of Romania.     

地震CT勘探在昆石公路隧道病害诊断中的应用

地震CT是一种新的地球物理方法。具有分辨率高、可靠性强、信息量大、图象直观的特点,可以广泛地用于线路、场地、隧道、边坡等项目的工程地质勘查和病害诊断。在昆石高速公路清水沟2号隧道的地质病害整治中应用地震CT进行勘探,取得了良好的效果。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Pyrenean region

A unified probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Pyrenean region has been performed by an international team composed of experts from Spain and France during the Interreg IIIA ISARD project. It is motivated by incoherencies between the seismic hazard zonations of the design codes of France and Spain and by the need for input data to be used to define earthquake scenarios. A great effort was invested in the homogenisation of the input data. All existing seismic data are collected in a database and lead to a unified catalogue using a local magnitude scale. PSHA has been performed using logic trees combined with Monte Carlo simulations to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. As an alternative to hazard calculation based on seismic sources zone models, a zoneless method is also used to produce a hazard map less dependant on zone boundaries. Two seismogenic source models were defined to take into account the different interpretations existing among specialists. A new regional ground-motion prediction equation based on regional data has been proposed. It was used in combination with published ground-motion prediction equations derived using European and Mediterranean data. The application of this methodology leads to the definition of seismic hazard maps for 475- and 1,975-year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods of 0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1 and 2 s. Median and percentiles 15% and 85% acceleration contour lines are represented. Finally, the seismic catalogue is used to produce a map of the maximum acceleration expected for comparison with the probabilistic hazard maps. The hazard maps are produced using a grid of 0.1°. The results obtained may be useful for civil protection and risk prevention purposes in France, Spain and Andorra.     

Exploring the feasibility of earthquake early warning using records of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and its aftershocks

Earthquake early warning system (EEWS) is one of the effective ways to mitigate earthquake damage and can provide few seconds to tens of seconds of advanced warning time of impending ground motions, allowing for mitigation measures to be taken in the short term. After the devastating Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, hundreds of M4-6 earthquakes occurred with depth range of 2–24 km. We explore a practical approach to earthquake early warning in Wenchuan area by determining a ground-motion period parameter τ_c and a high-pass filtered vertical displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 s of the P waveforms of these aftershocks with M≥4.0. The empirical relationships both between τ_c and M, and between Pd and peak ground velocity PGV for the Wenchuan area are presented. The τ_c result shows that it is systematically greater for slow earthquakes, leading to a possible false alarm. The moment rate function is used to handle the fact that the Pd parameter alone miss the M=8.0 mainshock. These two relationships can be used to detect the occurrence of a major earthquake and provide onsite warning in the area around the station where onset of strong ground motions is expected within seconds after the arrival of the P wave. The robustness of onsite early warning can be increased by using multistation data when the station density is high or by combing τ_c and Pd as a single indicator.