黄河小浪底水库抗震安全监测预测问题

根据小浪底工程的实际特点 ,本文提出了黄河小浪底水利枢纽工程施工和运行期间抗震安全监测预测的一条思路。并对人工水体出现前、震情平稳期间、出现水库诱发地震期间、近场发生强烈地震期间等各阶段的工作提出了具体设想 ,准备在小浪底水库遥测地震台网开始实施.     

四川省理县—小金公路岩质边坡监测试验研究

根据在四川省理县—小金路震区边坡开展的边坡现场监测试验,并结合监测期间区域范围内发生的三次48级以上地震,表明:表面岩体结构面总体出现了一个变形量迅速增大的过程,其施工对震区岩质边坡坡面产生的松散变形影响依然是最大的,施工后坡面在经历2个月的变形衰减后,基本趋于稳定;对于该处边坡的反向结构面,地震还将对坡表岩体结构产生一个挤密的变形作用,这有利于坡表岩层的稳定性;水平位移变化频繁,与该处位置及其荷载、地震激发等因素相关。在该处下边坡设立挡土墙是十分必要的,其后期的观测数据表明该处已基本恢复稳定。     

Seismic activity associated with the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate beneath the Kanto district, Japan

The Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea plate overlap and subduct underneath the Kanto region, central Japan, causing complex seismic activities in the upper mantle. In this research, we used a map selection tool with a graphic display to create a data set for earthquakes caused by the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate that are easily determined. As a result, we determined that there are at least four earthquake groups present in the upper mantle above the Pacific plate. Major seismic activity (Group 1) has been observed throughout the Kanto region and is considered to originate in the uppermost part of mantle in the subducted Philippine Sea plate, judging from the formation of the focal region and comparison with the 3D structure of seismic velocity. The focal mechanism of these earthquakes is characterized by the down-dip compression. A second earthquake layer characterized by down-dip extension (Group 2), below the earthquakes in this group, is also noted. The focal region for those earthquakes is considered to be located at the lower part of the slab mantle, and the Pacific plate located directly below is considered to influence the activity. Earthquakes located at the shallowest part (Group 3) form a few clusters distributed directly above the Group 1 focal region. Judging from the characteristics of later phases in these earthquakes and comparing against the 3D structure of seismic velocity, the focal regions for the earthquakes are considered to be located near the upper surface of the slab. Another earthquake group (Group 4) originates further below Group 2; it is difficult to consider these earthquakes within a single slab. The seismic activities representing the upper area of the Philippine Sea plate are Group 3. This paper proposes a slab geometry model that is substantially different from conventional models by strictly differentiating the groups.     

Late-Quaternary Slip Rate and Seismic Activity of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone in Southwest China

The Xianshuihe fault zone is a seismo-genetic fault zone of left-lateral slip in Southwest China. Since 1725, a total of 59 Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes have occurred along this fault zone, including 18 Ms 6.0–6.9 and eight Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. The seismic risk of the Xianshuihe fault zone is a large and realistic threat to the western Sichuan economic corridor. Based on previous studies, we carried out field geological survey and remote sensing interpretation in the fault zone. In addition, geophysical surveys, trenching and age-dating were conducted in the key parts to better understand the geometry, spatial distribution and activity of the fault zone. We infer to divide the fault zone into two parts: the northwest part and the southeast part, with total eight segments. Their Late Quaternary slip rates vary in a range of 11.5 mm/a –(3±1) mm/a. The seismic activities of the Xianshuihe fault zone are frequent and strong, periodical, and reoccurred. Combining the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical earthquakes, the seismic hazard of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been predicted by using the relationship between magnitude and frequency of earthquakes caused by different fault segments. The prediction results show that the segment between Daofu and Qianning has a possibility of Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes, while the segment between Shimian and Luding is likely to have earthquakes of about Ms 7.0. It is suggested to establish a GPS or In SAR-based real-time monitoring network of surface displacement to cover the Xianshuihe fault zone, and an early warning system of earthquakes and post seismic geohazards to cover the major residential areas.     

The Problems of Seismic Risk Prediction for the Territory of the Lower Amur Region: Paleoseismogeological and Seismological Analysis

The studied region is located at the junction between the Pacific and Central Asian seismoactive belts. Macroseismic data on earthquakes of this region are available for the last 150 years, while instrumental seismological observations began in the mid-20th century; however, the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes can be up to several centuries and even thousands of years. In this respect, many areas of the Amur region had been believed to be nearly aseismic until earthquakes occurred there. Paleoseismogeological studies of recent years have allowed the character of Holocene displacements to be estimated for some of the main regional structures. As a result, the main tendencies of the Late Quaternary geological evolution of the region remain uncertain and the potential seismogenerating structures are not completely known. Therefore the problem of revealing new zones and periods of seismic activity is topical for the entire Amur region. The importance of this problem is related to the weak degree of study of the region by contemporary methods of active tectonics, the intensive development of engineering infrastructure, which is vulnerable to seismic impacts, and the necessity of long-term seismic forecasting. The present work provides the results of paleoseismogeological studies of the active faults in the Amur region. On the basis of new data on the magnitude potential of seismogenerating structures based on the magnitudes of historical earthquakes and instrumentally recorded ones, we have estimated the seismic effects from strong deep-focus earthquakes and the attenuation coefficients and calculated radii of the first three isoseismals for crustal earthquakes. By using the methods of statistical modeling, we distinguish the periods when seismic effects increased from earthquakes with 2 ≤ M ≤ 6. It is shown that seismic hazard assessment should take into account the dynamics of the seismic regime, caused by the change of the earthquake source depth. It is found that the epicenters of earthquakes with 5 ≤ M ≤ 6 form non-crossing seismic zones in different phases of changes in the Earth’s annual rotation.     

A detailed cross-section of the deep seismic zone beneath northeastern Honshu, Japan

A cross-section of earthquakes located in northeastern Japan is presented by using pPdepths reported by the International Seismological Centre. Travel-time corrections for the water layer were used to recompute pP-depths of earthquakes located below the sea regions. Seven new focal-mechanism solutions, based on teleseismic and Japanese data, were determined for this region. The reconstructed cross-section shows a double seismic zone at intermediate depths of 80–150 km. Earthquakes located within the upper seismic plane are characterized by down-dip compression while those in the lower plane, located about 35 km below the other seismic plane, are characterized by down-dip extension. These observations suggest that, at these depths, stresses attributable to a simple “unbending” of a plate may contribute to the generation of earthquakes in addition to stresses generated by the gravitational sinking of the lithosphere. A detailed cross-section of shallow earthquakes in the same area between the trench and eastern coast of northeastern Honshu is presented along with focal-mechanism solutions. This cross-section delineates more clearly the seismic zones characterized by normal and low-angle thrust faulting.     

A Case Study of the Spatial Distribution of Seismic Hazard (El Salvador)

The republic of El Salvador in Central America is an area of high seismic hazard where at least twelve destructive earthquakes have occurred this century alone. The principal sources of seismic hazard are earthquakes associated with the subduction of the Cocos plate in the Middle America Trench and upper-crustal earthquakes in the chain of Quaternary volcanoes that runs across the country parallel to the subduction trench. Hazard assessments for Central America have suggested almost uniform distribution of hazard throughout El Salvador. Seismic zonations for three successive building codes in El Salvador simply divide the country into two regions, with the higher hazard zone containing the volcanoes and the coastal areas. Historical records suggest that the greatest hazard is posed by the upper-crustal earthquakes concentrated on the volcanic centres which, although of smaller magnitude than the subduction events, are generally of shallow focus and coincide with the main population centres. These earthquakes have repeatedly caused intense damage over small areas in the vicinity of some of the main volcanoes. This study focuses on El Salvador to explore the capability of different approaches to hazard assessment to reflect significant variations of seismic hazard within small geographical areas. In the study, three 'zone-free' methods are employed as well as the Cornell–McGuire approach. The results of the assessments are compared and their implications for seismic zoning for construction and insurance purposes are discussed.     

Analysis of the seismic vulnerability and the structural characteristics of houses in Chinese rural areas

Disastrous earthquakes brought extensive damage to rural houses not designed to resist seismic movements in China. So far, the paucity of nation-wide data on rural houses, especially on their structural features, has prevented a comprehensive national assessment of the earthquake vulnerability of rural areas. This paper estimates the proportion of rural houses in each of five different structural groups in county-level administration units in China with downscaling methods and assesses the seismic vulnerability of counties paying attention to the seismic intensity and social–economic characteristics of different areas. A housing damage index is constructed with the expected amount and ratio of damaged houses in earthquakes, based on which four vulnerability levels are specified for each county-level unit. The results show that highly vulnerable and vulnerable counties account for 7.9 % and 10.7 % of all, respectively. Based on the distribution of these counties, the critical factors of weakness in different regions, such as seismic intensity, housing quality and population density, are analyzed, and risk reduction strategies are discussed.     

Seismic patterns in Northern China and the characteristics of the epicentral distribution of the medium strong earthquakes before the large events

In this paper, the seismic pattern in Northern China from 30 ° to 42 ° N latitude and 104 ° to 125 ° E longitude, and the characteristics of the epicentral distribution before large events are presented. The results suggest that:

• 1.(1) the earthquakes in the region are mainly located in the orthogonal curvilinear network formed by the seismic belts;
• 2.(2) the larger earthquakes (M ⩾6) occurred mainly in the nodal regions of this grid:
• 3.(3) the strike of the fracture planes of the earthquakes coincided with the directions of the seismic belts;
• 4.(4) the pattern of medium strong earthquakes (M ⩾ 4.7) prior to thirteen large earthquakes (M⩾ 7) are analysed to be of three types:
  • 4.1.(a) mainly arranged along the two intersecting belts,
  • 4.2.(b) randomly distributed,
  • 4.3.(3) forming seismic gaps.

A theoretical basis and rules for drawing the orthogonal grid is presented, and an idea for the prediction of the sites of future earthquakes in Northern China is suggested.     

Earthquake hazard of dams along the Mekong mainstream

In this study, the earthquake hazard was evaluated for all of 19 of the proposed or built dams along the Mekong River. All values representing a potential indication of hazardous earthquakes, such as the closest earthquake and seismogenic faults and including the seismic parameters required for a seismic safety evaluation, were clarified. The results will be useful in reviewing the safety of existing dams and for the design of suitable earthquake resistant specifications for any currently or future planned dam construction in this area. Seismotectonically, 14 of the 19 proposed Mekong River dams are located within an earthquake source zone. Most of faults are potentially still active, according to both seismicity and paleoseismological evidence. In addition, the maximum credible earthquakes were estimated to be in the range of 7–8 Mw for the closest fault zone of each dam. Previous isoseismal maps indicated a risk of shaking intensities of around scale III–IV (Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) for the dams. According to the preliminary ranging of the International Commission on Large Dams, 9 of these 19 dams are classified as in an extreme hazard class and so need careful observation and monitoring of hazardous earthquakes. An effective mitigation plan should also be prepared for each operating dam.     

Developing a seismic source model for the Arabian Plate

A seismic source model is developed for the entire Arabian Plate, which has been affected by a number of earthquakes in the past and in recent times. Delineation and characterization of the sources responsible for these seismic activities are crucial inputs for any seismic hazard study. Available earthquake data and installation of local seismic networks in most of the Arabian Plate countries made it feasible to delineate the seismic sources that have a hazardous potential on the region. Boundaries of the seismic zones are essentially identified based upon the seismicity, available data on active faults and their potential to generate effective earthquakes, prevailing focal mechanism, available geophysical maps, and the volcanic activity in the Arabian Shield. Variations in the characteristics given by the above datasets provide the bases for delineating individual seismic zones. The present model consists of 57 seismic zones extending along the Makran Subduction Zone, Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt, Eastern Anatolian Fault, Aqaba-Dead Sea Fault, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Owen Fracture Zone, Arabian Intraplate, and a background seismic zone, which models the floating seismicity that is unrelated to any of the distinctly identified seismic zones. The features of the newly developed model make the seismic hazard results likely be more realistic.     

Application of GPS in identifying active fault plane in Western Maharashtra Peninsular shield of India

A broad overview of how GPS can be used to identify the active fault plane along which earthquakes occur in the seismic prone Western Maharashtra Peninsular shield of India is given. Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay in collaboration with Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Mumbai was actively working in the field of crustal deformation monitoring along Western Maharashtra from year 2004–2006. A regional GPS network had been established for this purpose, periodically observed between May 2004 to May 2006, and analysed. To understand the pattern of seismicity along Western Maharashtra region, the GPS-estimated coordinates and displacements were used as an indicator to estimate and identify regions of high strain rates, the reliability of which was confirmed with real seismic data collected. These strain rates were used as a means to identify the fault plane along which the earthquakes occurred during the period of observation.     

Strong historical earthquakes in the northwestern Issyk Kul’ basin (northern Tien Shan)

The northern Tien Shan is the northern front of the Himalayan mountain belt, which resulted from the collision between the Indian and Eurasian Plates. This region encompasses the most active seismic zones of the orogen, which generated the strongest (M > 8) earthquakes. Since there are scarcely any written accounts, the only way to trace back strong earthquakes is the paleoseismologic method. Since 1984 we have been studying the northwestern Issyk Kul’ basin, where there are differently directed anticlines, which constitute the Kungei meganticline. Here, several active tectonic structures (faults, folds) are located, whose development was accompanied by strong earthquakes. Our field studies of 2008 in the Iiri-Taldybulak Valley, along the adyrs (foothills) of the Kungei-Ala-Too Range, revealed two unknown historical earthquakes. The first one, which occurred along the southern rupture in the late 7th century A.D., gave rise to a seismic scarp; the latter broke through the river floodplain and a tash-koro (ancient settlement). The second one, which occurred along the northern rupture in the late 9th century A.D., increased the height of the seismic scarp, existing on the Early Holocene and older terraces. Note that this region already records a strong seismic event around 500 A.D. Archeologic data have revealed one more strong earthquake, which took place in the 14th century A.D. Note that the above-mentioned strong seismic events are coeval with the decline of the nomadic cultures (Wusun, Turkic, Mogul) in the northern Tien Shan and Zhetysu (Semirech’e).     

Peculiarities of the within-year distribution of earthquakes in the Kuril region

Recent investigations have shown that the probability of the occurrence of earthquakes in a specified region depends on several factors, such as the latitude of the study region, as well as the lunar and solar tidal forces, which are governed by the mutual arrangement of bodies in the Sun-Earth-Moon system. The objective of our work is to prove that the irregularity of the within-year distribution of seismic events in the Pacific regions (the Kuril Islands and Hokkaido Island) is a statistically significant process, which is manifested in different ways for earthquakes with various source depths and energy levels. The hypothesis about the uniform within-year distribution of earthquakes is refuted for shallow events. However, it is shown that deep earthquakes are distributed uniformly. This work attempts for the first time to determine the stability degree of the within-year irregularity of seismic events with respect to the observation time interval (from 28 to 5 years). Two peaks are noted in the annual distribution of the earthquakes. The relation of the peaks of the within-year seismic activity to the Earth’s position on the ecliptic plane, as well as the relationships between the peaks, the magnitude range of the events, and the position of the specified subregion, is considered. The principal maximum of the seismic activity falls in the November-March period, which matches the minimum Earth-Sun distance.     

Focal mechanism solutions and dynamic parameters of earthquakes in the eastern Himalayas and northern Burma

Focal-mechanism solutions of four earthquakes in the eastern Himalayas and northern Burma are determined using the first motion of compressional waves. Two possible solutions thus obtained for each event reveal steeply dipping fault with predominantly strike-slip motion. The stress directions inferred from the focal mechanism solutions are interpreted in the light of predictions of the plate tectonics theory, viz., the underthrusting of the Indian plate in the Burma region in an easterly direction.Dynamic parameters (seismic moment, apparent stress and average dislocations) are obtained using the corrected spectra of Love waves. The earthquakes are found to possess low seismic moment and apparent stress values. A comparison of these estimates with values for intraplate earthquakes is given. It is suggested that these earthquake might be a consequence of a nonhomogeneous rupture process.     

Tectonic stress,seismicity, and seismic hazard in the southeastern Carpathians

Intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region occur in response to stress generation due to descending lithosphere beneath the southeastern Carpathians. In this article, tectonic stress and seismicity are analyzed in the region on the basis of a vast body of observations. We show a correlation between the location of intermediate-depth earthquakes and the predicted localization of maximum shear stress in the lithosphere. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the region is presented in terms of various ground motion parameters on the utilization of Fourier amplitude spectra used in engineering practice and risk assessment (peak ground acceleration, response spectra amplitude, and seismic intensity). We review the PSHA carried out in the region, and present new PSHA results for the eastern and southern parts of Romania. Our seismic hazard assessment is based on the information about the features of earthquake ground motion excitation, seismic wave propagation (attenuation), and site effect in the region. Spectral models and characteristics of site-response on earthquake ground motions are obtained from the regional ground motion data including several hundred records of small and large earthquakes. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are consistent with the features of observed earthquake effects in the southeastern Carpathians and show that geological factors play an important part in the distribution of the earthquake ground motion parameters.     

The first experiment of seismodeformational monitoring of the Baikal Rift Zone: Example of the August 27, 2008, South-Baikal earthquake

The first experience in application of the method of curvature analysis of structural functions for data processing of deformation monitoring conducted in the South-Baikal geodynamical polygon within the margins of the seismoactive Baikal Rift Zone is presented. On the basis of the obtained results, the validity of analysis for seismic events on the basis of synergetical methodology and effectiveness of application of the methodology used for estimation of the dynamical state of the lithosphere and detection of midterm precursors of strong earthquakes is shown.     

Earthquake prediction through the observation and measurement of mercury content variation in water

This paper reports on the variation of Hg content of groundwater during underground and hydrofracturing experiments, the abnormal Hg content in fracture activity zones and hot-springs areas, and the variation of Hg content during two earthquakes. The authors discuss the monitoring and prediction of seismic activities by measuring the Hg content of water and reach the preliminary conclusions that changes in the Hg content of water demonstrate the most sensitive reaction to seismic activities known at the present time and can be used for monitoring and predicting such activities.     

Reappraisal of great historical earthquakes in the northern Chile and southern Peru seismic gaps

A critical reappraisal of great historical interplate earthquakes in the occidental margin of South America, including southern Peru and northern Chile, is carried out.A spacetime distribution of the earthquakes associated to the seismotectonics regions defined by the rupture zones of the greatest events (1868, Mw = 8.8 and 1877, Mw = 8.8) is obtained. Both regions are seismic gaps that are in the maturity state of their respective earthquake cycles. The region associated to the 1868 earthquake presents a notable seismic quiescence in the present century.