Application of artificial neural networks in typhoon surge forecasting

A typhoon-surge forecasting model was developed with a back-propagation neural network (BPN) in the present paper. The typhoon's characteristics, local meteorological conditions and typhoon surges at a considered tidal station at time t−1 and t were used as input data of the model to forecast typhoon surges at the following time. For the selection of a better forecasting model, four models (Models A–D) were tested and compared under the different composition of the above-mentioned input factors. A general evaluation index that is a composition of four performance indexes was proposed to evaluate the model's overall performance. The result of typhoon-surge forecasting was classified into five grades: A (excellent), B (good), C (fair), D (poor) and E (bad), according to the value of the general evaluation index. Sixteen typhoon events and their corresponding typhoon surges and local meteorological conditions at Ken–fang Tidal Station in the coast of north-eastern Taiwan between 1993 and 2000 were collected, 12 of them were used in model's calibration while the other four were used in model's verification. The analysis of typhoon-surge forecasting results at Ken–fang tidal station show that the Model D composing 18 input factors has better performance, and that it is a suitable BPN-based model in typhoon-surge forecasting. The Model D was also applied to typhoon-surge forecasting at Cheng-kung Tidal Station in south-eastern coast of Taiwan and at Tung-shih Tidal Station in the coast of south-western Taiwan. Results show that the application of Model D in typhoon-surge forecasting at Cheng-kung Tidal Station has better performance than that at Tung-shih Tidal Station.     

Modelling the cross-shore profiles of sand beaches using artificial neural networks

Abstract

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely used successfully to solve coastal engineering problems. In this article, they are used to model the cross-shore profile of sandy beaches taking into account the possible effect of marine vegetation (Posidonia oceanica). Sixty ANNs were generated by modifying both the inputs and the number of neurons in the hidden layer. The best results were obtained with the following inputs: wave height perpendicular to the coast and the associated period and probability of occurrence, median sediment size, profile slope, and energy reduction factor due to P. oceanica. With these inputs and 10 neurons in the hidden layer, a mean absolute error of 0.22?m during training and 0.21?m during the test was obtained, which represents an improvement of 81.2% and 55.5% compared to models without and with P. oceanica.     

Wavelet and artificial neural network analyses of tide forecasting and supplement of tides around Taiwan and South China Sea

In multi-resolution analysis (MRA) by wavelet function Daubechies (db), we decompose the signal in two parts, the low and high-frequency contents. We remove the high-frequency content and reconstruct a new “de-noise” signal by using inverse wavelet transform. The calculation of tidal constituent phase-lags was made to determine the input and output data patterns used in building network structure of Artificial Neuron-Network (ANN) model. The “de-noise” signal was, then, used as the input data to improve the forecasting accuracy of the ANN model. The wavelet spectrum, conventional energy spectrum (fast Fourier transform, FFT), and harmonic analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of tidal data.Using only a very short-period data as a training data set in Artificial Neuron-Network Back-Propagate (ANN-BP) model, the developed ANN+Wavelet model can accurately predict or supply the missing tide data for a long period (1–5 years). The results also show that the concept of tidal constituent phase-lags can improve ANN model of tidal forecasting and data supplement. The addition of the wavelet analysis to ANN method can prominently improve the prediction quality.     

Forecast of storm surge by means of artificial neural network

This study describes the construction and verification of a model of sea level changes during a storm surge, applying artificial neural network (ANN) methodology in hydrological forecasting in a tideless sea where the variation of water level is only wind generated. Some neural networks were tested to create the forecast model. The results of ANN were compared with observed sea-level values, and with the forecasts calculated by different routine methods. The results of verification show that the neural network methodology could be successfully applied in the routine, operational forecast service.     

Prediction of breaking waves with neural networks

The height of a wave at the time of its breaking, as well as the depth of water in which it breaks, are the two basic parameters that are required as input in design exercises involving wave breaking. Currently the designers obtain these values with the help of graphical procedures and empirical equations. An alternative to this in the form of a neural network is presented in this paper. The networks were trained by combining the existing deterministic relations with a random component. The trained network was validated with the help of fresh laboratory observations. The validation results confirmed usefulness of the neural network approach for this application. The predicted breaking height and water depth were more accurate than those obtained traditionally through empirical schemes. Introduction of a random component in network training was found to yield better forecasts in some validation cases.     

人工神经网络在南海近海面气温反演中的应用研究

基于人工神经网络方法,利用海面水温、海面风速以及海面气压反演南海近海面气温,采用的基础数据集是国际综合海洋-大气数据集(International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set,2.4 Release,ICOADS2.4)1981—2008年的观测资料,其中1981—2000年的观测资料用来建立模型,2001—2008年的观测资料用来进行模型检验。采用的人工神经网络方法是引入动量因子并采用批处理梯度下降法的BP(Back propagation)算法。试验结果表明,基于人工神经网络建立的近海面气温反演方法明显优于多元线性回归方法,尤其是在春季和冬季,海面水温、海面风速以及海面气压与近海面气温之间存在较强的非线性关系,人工神经网络的优势更加明显。总体而言,人工神经网络在各月的反演效果较均衡,均方根误差介于1.5—1.8℃之间,平均绝对误差为1.1—1.3℃。     

Neural network for wave forecasting among multi-stations

Unlike in the open sea, the use of wind information for forecasting waves may encounter more ambiguous uncertainties in the coastal or harbor area due to the influence of complicated geometric configurations. Thus this paper attempts to forecast the waves based on learning the characteristics of observed waves, rather than the use of the wind information. This is reported in this paper by the application of the artificial neural network (ANN), in which the back-propagation algorithm is employed in the learning process for obtaining the desired results. This model evaluated the interconnection weights among multi-stations based on the previous short-term data, from which a time series of waves at a station can be generated for forecasting or data supplement based on using the neighbor stations data. Field data are used for testing the applicability of the ANN model. The results show that the ANN model performs well for both wave forecasting and data supplement when using a short-term observed wave data.     

基于人工神经网络的赤潮预测模型

本文利用非线性时间序列预测模型,将海洋预报和人工神经网络BP算法相结合,提出了基于神经网络的海洋预报模型;运用改进的三层BP(Back Propagation)神经网络模型对海洋气象进行赤潮灾害监测和预报;同时针对仿真结果进行分析,结果表明该模型具有较好的预测能力。     

Application of artificial intelligence techniques in automatic hull form generation

The paper describes a methodology for automatic hull form generation of ships with some desired performances using artificial intelligence techniques. The whole implementation process is divided into three main components. First of all the half-breadth weight matrices are generated that would provide population with pre-fitness by examining the relationship of the hull form with the principal dimensions of a number of existing vessels. Secondly, breadth and draft are adjusted using Neural Network Concepts. Breadth, draft, length, displacement and speed of the ship are very related terms and relations among them create some constraints. Neural Networks solve these constraints and adjust the parameters. Finally, Genetic Algorithm is used for searching the exact solution by examining several generations. For this, the algorithms need to measure fitness for every population in every generation. Unfortunately, GA doesn't guarantee fairness of the surface of the hull form, which can't be ignored. So, for every population especially for newborn population fairing techniques would be used. However, being complex geometric shape, hull form surface can't be faired using least-square or other single equation fitting techniques. Fairness is done taking pair-wise points using B-spline functions [CAD 20(1988)].     

人工神经网络在潮汐数值预报中的应用

潮汐数值预报经过了几十年的发展,但是其预报精度并不能让人十分满意,本文试图将传统的潮汐数值预报模式与近年来发展迅速的人工神经网络相结合并改进潮汐数值预报的精度。文章建立了一个神经网络系统,采用潮汐数值模式的输出结果作为网络输入,潮位观测资料作为输出,用建立的神经网络进行训练,结果表明人工神经网络可以明显地改进潮汐数值预报的精度。     

人工神经网络在多金属结核研究中的应用

本文通过对太平洋CC区多金属结核成矿背景的综合分析,利用人工神经网络随机BP算法,建立能够反映控矿因素的地质因子与结核分布参数间关系的人工神经网络模型,用于研究海底多金属结核的分布。本文对BP算法加以改进,提高了BP网络的收敛速度,加强了BP网络的学习和记忆功能,开发出人工神经网络的软件包,该软件包能够快速估算矿区内每个位置结核的丰度值,且具有较高的容错性。     

Neural networks for wave forecasting

The physical process of generation of waves by wind is extremely complex, uncertain and not yet fully understood. Despite a variety of deterministic models presented to predict the heights and periods of waves from the characteristics of the generating wind, a large scope still exists to improve on the existing models or to provide alternatives to them. This paper explores the possibility of employing the relatively recent technique of neural networks for this purpose. A simple 3-layered feed forward type of network is developed to obtain the output of significant wave heights and average wave periods from the input of generating wind speeds. The network is trained with different algorithms and using three sets of data. The results show that an appropriately trained network could provide satisfactory results in open wider areas, in deep water and also when the sampling and prediction interval is large, such as a week. A proper choice of training patterns is found to be crucial in achieving adequate training.     

Real time wave forecasting using neural networks

Forecasting of ocean wave heights, with warning time of a few hours or days, is necessary in planning many operation-related activities in the ocean. Such information is currently derived by numerically solving the differential equation representing wave energy balance. The solution procedure involved is extremely complex and calls for very large amounts of meteorological and oceanographic data. This paper presents a complementary and simple method to make a point forecast of waves in real time sense based on the current observation of waves at a site. It incorporates the technique of neural networks. The network involved is first trained by different algorithms and then used to forecast waves with lead times varying from 3 to 24 h. The results of different training algorithms are compared with each other. The neural output is further compared with the statistical AR models.     

基于BP人工神经网络的水体遥感测深方法研究

利用Landsat7ETM＋遥感图像反射率和实测水深值之间的相关性,建立了动量BP人工神经网络水深反演模型,并对长江口南港河段水深进行了反演.结果表明：具有较强非线性映射能力的动量BP神经网络模型能较好地反演出长江口南港河段的水深分布情况;由于受长江口水体高含沙量的影响,模型对小于5 m的水深值反演精度较高,而对大于10 m的水深值反演精度较低.     

Ocean wave forecasting using recurrent neural networks

The tremendous increase in offshore operational activities demands improved wave forecasting techniques. With the knowledge of accurate wave conditions, it is possible to carry out the marine activities such as offshore drilling, naval operations, merchant vessel routing, nearshore construction, etc. more efficiently and safely. This paper describes an artificial neural network, namely recurrent neural network with rprop update algorithm and is applied for wave forecasting. Measured ocean waves off Marmugao, west coast of India are used for this study. Here, the recurrent neural network of 3, 6 and 12 hourly wave forecasting yields the correlation coefficients of 0.95, 0.90 and 0.87, respectively. This shows that the wave forecasting using recurrent neural network yields better results than the previous neural network application.     

Wave hindcasting by coupling numerical model and artificial neural networks

By coupling numerical wave model (NWM) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), a new procedure for wave prediction is proposed. In many situations, numerical wave modeling is not justified due to economical consideration. Although incorporation of an ANN model is inexpensive, such a model needs a long time period of wave data for training, which is generally inconvenient to achieve. A proper combination of these two methods could carry the potentials of both. Based on the proposed approach, wave data are generated by a NWM by means of a short period of assumed winds at a concerned point. Then, an ANN is designed and trained using the above-mentioned generated wind-wave data. This ANN model is capable of mapping wind-velocity time series to wave height and period time series with low cost and acceptable accuracy. The method was applied for wave hindcasting to two different sites; Lake Superior and the Pacific Ocean. Simulation results show the superiority of the proposed approach.     

Prediction of maximum wave-induced liquefaction in porous seabed using multi-artificial neural network model

In the last few decades, considerable efforts have been devoted to the phenomenon of wave-induced liquefactions, because it is one of the most important factors for analysing the seabed and designing marine structures. Although numerous studies of wave-induced liquefaction have been carried out, comparatively little is known about the impact of liquefaction on marine structures. Furthermore, most previous researches have focused on complicated mathematical theories and some laboratory work. In the present study, a data dependent approach for the prediction of the wave-induced liquefaction depth in a porous seabed is proposed, based on a multi-artificial neural network (MANN) method. Numerical results indicate that the MANN model can provide an accurate prediction of the wave-induced maximum liquefaction depth with 10% of the original database. This study demonstrates the capacity of the proposed MANN model and provides coastal engineers with another effective tool to analyse the stability of the marine sediment.     

遗传算法与神经网络相结合的热带气旋强度预报方法试验

以1960~2001年共41 a的7月和8月西行进入南海海域的热带气旋样本为基础,采用遗传算法与神经网络相结合的方法,进行了热带气旋强度预报模型的预报建模研究.并根据相同的热带气旋个例,将这种遗传-神经网络热带气旋强度预报模型与气候持续法热带气旋强度预报方法进行对比分析,试验预报结果表明,遗传-神经网络方法具有更好的预报能力.     

基于多种神经网络的风暴潮增水预测方法的比较分析

简要介绍了利用BP神经网络、小波神经网络、递归神经网络进行风暴潮增水值预测的原理。选取广东省珠江口以南的阳江站2017年风暴潮增水数据进行测试。结果表明,三种神经网络方法针对阳江地区风暴潮增水的预测均具有可靠性和实用性。以当前增水值为输入量的单因子模型更能反映真实风暴潮增水趋势,而从增水极值预测的准确性来看,以台风风力、气压、风向等相关参数为输入量的多因子模型优于单因子模型。BP神经网络更适用于多因子长时间预测,小波神经网络在单因子短时间预测上准确性更高,递归神经网络预测值与实测值相关性更强。在工程运用中,需根据地域时空特点、数据资料的丰富度与预测值评估指标选择合适的方法。     

Remote sensing of water depths in shallow waters via artificial neural networks

Determination of the water depths in coastal zones is a common requirement for the majority of coastal engineering and coastal science applications. However, production of high quality bathymetric maps requires expensive field survey, high technology equipment and expert personnel. Remotely sensed images can be conveniently used to reduce the cost and labor needed for bathymetric measurements and to overcome the difficulties in spatial and temporal depth provision. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methodology is introduced in this study to derive bathymetric maps in shallow waters via remote sensing images and sample depth measurements. This methodology provides fast and practical solution for depth estimation in shallow waters, coupling temporal and spatial capabilities of remote sensing imagery with modeling flexibility of ANN. Its main advantage in practice is that it enables to directly use image reflectance values in depth estimations, without refining depth-caused scatterings from other environmental factors (e.g. bottom material and vegetation). Its function-free structure allows evaluating nonlinear relationships between multi-band images and in-situ depth measurements, therefore leads more reliable depth estimations than classical regressive approaches. The west coast of the Foca, Izmir/Turkey was used as a test bed. Aster first three band images and Quickbird pan-sharpened images were used to derive ANN based bathymetric maps of this study area. In-situ depth measurements were supplied from the General Command of Mapping, Turkey (HGK). Two models were set, one for Aster and one for Quickbird image inputs. Bathymetric maps relying solely on in-situ depth measurements were used to evaluate resultant derived bathymetric maps. The efficiency of the methodology was discussed at the end of the paper. It is concluded that the proposed methodology could decrease spatial and repetitive depth measurement requirements in bathymetric mapping especially for preliminary engineering application.