THE CORRELATION BETWEEN SUNSPOT AND CORONAL HOLE CYCLES AND A FORECAST OF THE MAXIMUM OF SUNSPOT CYCLE 23

We have shown in previous papers that a close relationship exists between the evolution of polar coronal hole area, estimated from K-coronameter observations, and the Wolf sunspot number, with a time lag of about half a solar cycle. In this paper we study the same relationship, but with the total coronal hole area at the base of the corona as obtained from a potential field model of the coronal magnetic field, which provides a more complete series of about three solar cycles. We confirm the relationship for the two last cycles and find that the forward time shift in the coronal hole area for the best correlation with sunspot number is almost the same for cycles 21 and 22, and this shift is also the time between peaks in both series. We use this result to make an early prediction of the time and size of the sunspot maximum for solar cycle 23, and find that this should occur early in 2001 and have a magnitude of about 190, similar to that of the two previous sunspot cycles.     

23周太阳活动预报方法研究

文中评价了２３ 周以来北京天文台的短期太阳活动预报工作,Ｘ 射线耀斑的报准率为８９ ．６ ％ ,太阳质子事件的报准率为６２ ．５ ％ 。另外,还叙述了第２３ 周峰年北京天文台太阳活动预报工作的选题（ 包括研究课题和实施课题     

第23周峰年云南天文台太阳射电观测研究选题

基于云南天文台射电频谱仪的频率设置,第２３ 周太阳峰年期,我们作了下列观测研究选题：（１） 质子耀斑的初始能量释放过程及粒子加速研究。（２） 通过微波———分米波运动Ⅳ型爆发观测,开展日冕物质抛射研究。（３） 射电快速精细结构及微耀斑研究。（４） 通过频谱观测发展日冕磁场的诊断方法、反演磁场的拓朴结构。（５） 开展太阳灾变事件中的射电先兆研究,为日地空间环境警报提供射电观测依据     

23周太阳活动的现状和展望

本文给出了太阳２３ 周开始时间的确定、从开始到现在近两年间太阳活动的状况以及２３周上升期间的一些特点。分析表明,１９９６ 年１０ 月是２３ 周的第一个月,它的月平滑值是８ ．８ ;２３ 周的太阳活动虽然可能是高活动周,例如,国际推荐值为２０００ 年３ 月的１６０ ,但它可能不会超过前两周。根据上升期太阳活动的一些特征,还给出了在２３ 周峰年联测和空间灾害性扰动事件预报和预报方法研究中应注意的几个问题     

23周峰年云台米波频谱观测系统

本文介绍云南天文台用于观测研究太阳射电２３０ ～３００ ＭＨｚ 米波爆发精细结构动态频谱仪研究的历史和现状,以及利用现代计算机网络技术,有效地解决了由于高时间人辨率和高频率分辩率观测采样带来的大数据量存储和处理。该系统经过不断改进和完善,目前已投入２３ 周峰年太阳射电爆发频谱观测     

太阳耀斑与黑子群面积的关系

本文对２２周峰年（１９８９．１－１９９０．１２）太阳黑子群,在每天不同面积内有≥１级太阳耀斑的产生率及有≥１级太阳耀斑的黑子活动区的占有率进行了统计分析,结果显示它们之间有一定关系,并且黑子群面积愈大耀斑的产生率和黑子活动区的占有率就愈高。     

SIMULATION OF SEEING INFLUENCES ON THE PHOTOMETRIC DETERMINATION OF SUNSPOT AREAS

Various methods for measuring areas of sunspots and umbrae are compared to test their robustness against changing seeing conditions. The influence of the seeing is simulated by artificially degrading high-resolution sunspot images. A new procedure – the so-called inflexion point method – for area determinations is described. It is based on the calculation of the inflexion point contours of the two-dimensional sunspot intensity distribution. The areas derived with this method are much more stable against seeing influences than those obtained by the other procedures tested. The effect of the seeing on the measurements of the bolometric sunspot contrast and irradiance deficit produced by a sunspot is also studied.     

黑子活动区流场精细结构

本文通过太阳活动区光球和色球速度场和磁场观测资料,讨论了黑子活动区附近流场的精细结构,论述了太阳大气中物质的流动呈纤维结构,以及速度场纤维与磁场,色球纤维和网络结构之间的关系。     

太阳黑子半影的形成和返回磁通量的来源

本文从无半影的黑子成长为带半影的黑子伴随着磁场强度增强和延伸运动这个观测事实出发，通过MHD数值模拟，证明了：（1）对流层内黑子中涡旋流动的自然形成；（2）仅在黑子表面附近磁矢才急速向外移动，最终形成我们观测到的半影磁场位形；（3）光球之上由于β迅速减少，这么小的延伸速度（0.2公里／秒）仅在β～1的光球区200公里厚的层里使磁矢有效地旋转，在约几小时至一天量级时间内将近似垂直的本影磁场向水平方向旋转，形成Osherovich所期的ReturnFlux磁位形，将注入日冕空间的本影主磁流同在色球和光球内就返回的半影磁流自然地划分开来．     

OBSERVATIONS OF SUNSPOT UMBRAL OSCILLATIONS

The solar vacuum telescopes VTT and GCT at Tenerife have been used to obtain high-resolution two-dimensional spectro-polarimetric observations of oscillations in the photospheric layers of sunspots. At the GCT the area of the sunspot has been scanned by shifting the spectrograph slit; at the VTT a Fabry–Pérot interferometer has been applied to get narrow-band filtergrams directly and to scan through the line profile.The spectra of velocity oscillations show the known features of closely packed power peaks in bands of periods around 3 min (strengthened) and 5 min (weakened with respect to the quiet Sun). In the same frequency bands the more reliable VTT data show significant oscillations of the magnetic field strength as well, which could not be attributed to disturbing influences. Maximum power of both velocity and magnetic oscillations and a strong correlation between them, in the 3-min band in particular, is found to occur in those parts of the umbra where the magnetic lines of force are parallel to the line of sight. The oscillations are characterized by a marked spatial fine structure and a non-stationary behaviour.     

太阳黑子相对数的分维研究

本文用非线性动力系统理论控制了现代太阳周（１８５０年１月－１９９２年５月）黑子相对数月平均变化的动力行为和可预报性，计算了它的分维数。结果表明，太阳黑子数月均变化是一个复杂的低维浑沌系统，可用有限个参数描述，所需变量至少为３个，最多为７个，本文还讨论了黑子数月均值的可预报时间尺度，平均可预报时间尺度为１５０个月，本文建议利用最小二乘直线拟合的最小方差来判定最佳无标度区，所得分维数较客观，并简要讨论     

OPTICAL PREDICTIONS FOR HIGH GEOCENTRIC VELOCITY METEORS

In this study we numerically modelled the atmospheric ablation and luminosity of cometary structure meteoroids with geocentric velocities from 71 to 200 km/s. We considered meteoroid masses ranging from 10⁻¹³ to 10⁻⁶ kg. Expected heights of ablation and maximum luminosity absolute magnitudes are determined. Height and trail length values are used to calculate the angle traversed in a single video frame. It is found that for pre-atmospheric meteoroid masses of greater than 10⁻⁸ kg, high geocentric velocity meteors should be detectable with current electro-optical technology if properly optimised.     

CHANGES IN SUNSPOT AND FLOCCULAR SOURCES OF RADIO EMISSION PRECEDING AN IMPORTANCE 2N FLARE ON 23 AUGUST 1988

Based on observations from the Siberian solar radio telescope, and invoking data from other observatories, we investigate preflare changes in the sunspot and floccular sources of radio emission and the development of an importance 2N flare in the chromosphere and corona in the active region on August 23, 1988.It has been ascertained that preflare changes became observable six hours prior to the flare onset and manifested themselves in intense flux fluctuations above the sunspot and in an enhancement of the source emission flux above the flocculus.It is shown that the flare onset is associated with a newly emerged magnetic flux in the form of a pore near the filament and with the appearance of radio sources above the filament. The flare was accompanied by type III radio bursts and a noise storm at meter wavelengths. Coronal mass ejection parameters are estimated from type III burst observations.     

INTER-CYCLE VARIATIONS OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE: SUNSPOT AREAS AS A POINTER

Most of the present models and reconstructions of solar irradiance use the concept of Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) to account for the influence of sunspots on solar brightness. Since PSI is based on measured sunspot areas a firm database of such areas is essential. We show, however, that a significant disagreement exists between the data provided by the Royal Greenwich Observatory (from 1874 to 1976) and newer measurements provided by the observatories of Rome, Yunnan, Catania, and the US Air Force. The overlap of the time intervals over which sunspot areas were measured at Greenwich and Rome allows us to quantify the difference between the Greenwich and other data sets. We find that the various data sets differ, at least in a statistical sense, mainly by a correction factor of between 1.15 and 1.25.The revised time series of sunspot areas correlates well with the Zürich sunspot relative numbers over the last 120 years, with the relationship between sunspot areas and sunspot numbers changing only slightly from one cycle to the next. In particular, no indication exists for any extraordinary magnetic behavior of the Sun during the last 2 decades, as might falsely be concluded if the various sunspot area data sets are uncritically combined. There are, however, some indications that cycles 15 and 16 deviate from the rest. We expect that our results should have a significant influence on the reconstruction of the historical solar irradiance.     

太阳黑子穿过同磁极性大黑子的观测

本文利用紫金山天文台精细结构望远镜拍摄的优质Ｈａ线心和离带照片，分析了新浮黑子活动区１９９０年１２月５日至９日磁结构演化及黑子的自行运动。我们观测到了一黑子穿过另一同极性大黑子这一非常少见的现象。     

SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR IMPULSIVE BURSTS OBSERVED IN THE RANGE 18–23 GHz

Here, we report on impulsive solar radio bursts observed for the first time with high time/spectral resolution in the range 18 to 23 GHz. Using observational parameters and assuming nonthermal gyrosynchrotron emission from energetic electrons in a loop structure, we have estimated the density of nonthermal electrons, magnetic field, and dimension of the source along the line of sight.     

关于脉冲星非共转模型的研究

本文讨论了共轴、纯转动、force-free的脉冲星系统,在Burman理论基础上建立了一个非共转模型(其中含待定参量,共转情况是它的特例)。利用系统稳定的近似条件——系统能量最小确定特定参量,得到一个与G-J模型类似的共转模型。由于考虑了惯性效应,不存在星风,是稳定态,但没有辐射。在转轴与磁矩有小偏角时,利用非平衡系统更普遍的稳定条件——熵产生最小,确定本模型的参量,得到的辐射能量在量级上与观测值相符合。     

磁场对辐射及中子星结构的影响

本文是近几年“攀登计划”执行情况的汇报。它概括了同步曲率辐射新机制发现的意义、解决的问题及应用前景。同时它阐明了中子星内部超强磁场存在的影响,以及可与观测相比较的效应。     

ELECTRIC CURRENT HELICITY IN 40 ACTIVE REGIONS IN THE MAXIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 22

Using vector magnetograms of 40 active regions (ARs) of the maximum of solar cycle 22, we calculated the imbalance _h (over the AR area) of the current helicity h_c B_z ( × B)_z in the photosphere. In 82.5% of the cases the predominant current helicity was negative (_h < 0) in the northern hemisphere and positive (_h > 0) in the southern hemisphere. Thus, the predominance of counter-clockwise (clockwise) vortices in the northern (southern) hemisphere seems to be valid not only for unipolar spots with obvious vortex structure (Hale, 1927; Richardson, 1941; McIntosh, 1979; Ding, Hong, and Wang, 1987) but also for ARs of different types. The forces of rotation of the Sun (Coriolis force and/or differential rotation) seem to take effect in the twisting of various magnetic structures.     

Kepler方程解法的评估

本文从初值公式和修正法两方面对近二三十年来关于解椭圆Kepler方程的各种方法做了全面的总结。列举、比较了多种初值和修正法。Markley初值离真解最近。通过在Pentium 586上的大量实验,我们认为,三阶Halley方法和Odell与Gooding初值或Nijenhuis初值构成最快的算法,且能保证收敛性。