Effect of the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics on stochastically generated rainfall time series: part 1. Impact on peak and extreme rainfall values

A noble approach of stochastic rainfall generation that can account for inter-annual variability of the observed rainfall is proposed. Firstly, we show that the monthly rainfall statistics that is typically used as the basis of the calibration of the parameters of the Poisson cluster rainfall generators has significant inter-annual variability and that lumping them into a single value could be an oversimplification. Then, we propose a noble approach that incorporates the inter-annual variability to the traditional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall modeling by adding the process of simulating rainfall statistics of individual months. Among 132 gage-months used for the model verification, the proportion that the suggested approach successfully reproduces the observed design rainfall values within 20 % error varied between 0.67 and 0.83 while the same value corresponding to the traditional approach varied between 0.21 and 0.60. This result suggests that the performance of the rainfall generation models can be largely improved not only by refining the model structure but also by incorporating more information about the observed rainfall, especially the inter-annual variability of the rainfall statistics.     

Effect of spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and watershed characteristics on stream flow hydrograph

The shape, timing and peak flow of a stream flow hydrograph are significantly influenced by spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and watershed characteristics. Depending upon the size and shape of a watershed, its hydrological response is closely linked with storm dynamics. On an urban watershed a rain storm moving in the direction of flow produces a higher peak than it would if it were moving in the opposite direction. The effect of storm speed on peak discharge is much less for rapidly moving storms than for storms moving at about the same speed as the flow velocity. In a relatively homogeneous watershed the most important effect of spatial variability of rainfall occurs in the timing and shape of the runoff hydrograph. Temporally variable rainfall leads to higher peak flow than does constant rainfall. Significant errors in the prediction of runoff occur when an equivalent uniform hillslope is used to represent a heterogeneous hillslope. When average soil properties are used instead of spatially variable properties, significant differences are observed in infiltration. Spatially variable roughness alters the flow dynamics significantly. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of imperfect rainfall knowledge on the efficiency and the parameters of watershed models

It is crucial to analyze the sensitivity of watershed (rainfall-runoff) models to imperfect knowledge of rainfall input, in order to judge whether or not they are reliable and robust, especially if they are to be used for operational purposes. In this paper, a new approach to sensitivity analysis is proposed, based on a comparison between the efficiency ratings and parameter values of the models and the quality of rainfall input estimate (GORE and BALANCE indexes, assessing the quality of rainfall time distribution and the total depth respectively). Data from three watersheds of increasing size (71, 1120, and 10700 km²), are used to test three watershed models of varying complexity (three-parameter GR3J model and six-parameter modified versions of TOPMODEL and IHACRES).

These models are able to cope with imperfect rainfall input estimates, and react to improvements in rainfall input accuracy by better performance and reduced variability of efficiency. Two different types of model behavior were identified: the models either benefit from improved rainfall data by producing more consistent parameter values, or they are unable to take advantage of the improvements. Although the watershed size seems to be immaterial, the smaller watersheds appear to need more precise areal rainfall estimates (a higher concentration of raingages) to ensure good modeling results.     

Effects of climatic variability on the hydrologic response of a freshwater watershed

A generalized watershed model was used to evaluate the effects of global climate changes on the hydrologic responses of freshwater ecosystems. The Enhanced Trickle Down (ETD) model was applied to W-3 watershed located near Danville, Vermont. Eight years of field data was used to perform model calibration and verification and the results were presented in Nikolaidis et al., (1993). Results from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models which simulated the doubling of present day atmospheric CO₂ scenarios were used to perform the hydrologic simulations for the W-3 watershed. The results indicate that the W-3 watershed will experience increases in annual evapotranspiration and decreases in annual outflow and soil moisture. Stochastic models that simulate collective statistical properties of meteorological time series were developed to generate data to drive the ETD model in a Monte-Carlo fashion for quantification of the uncertainty in the model predictions due to input time series. This coupled deterministic and stochastic model was used to generate probable scenarios of future hydrology of the W-3 watershed. The predicted evapotranspiration and soil moisture under doubling present day atmospheric CO₂ scenarios exceed the present day uncertainty due to input time series by a factor greater than 2. The results indicate that the hydrologic response of the W-3 watershed will be significantly different than its present day response. The Enhanced Trickle Down model can be used to evaluate land surface feedbacks and assessing water quantity management in the event of climate change.     

Effect of stiffness variability on the response of isolated structures

Results are presented of an investigation, the objective of which was to determine the relationship between the stiffness variability of the bearings of an isolation system and the response variability of the structure. The system is modeled as a rigid, rectangular structure that is free to translate and rotate. The isolation system consists of N isolation bearings arranged in a rectangular pattern, each with a stiffness k_i that is an independent, normally distributed, random variable. Response spectrum analysis is used to obtain the analytical solution for the structure response. Approximate closed‐form expressions are obtained for the variance of the centreline displacement, rotation, corner displacement and base shear, that are in terms of the variability of the isolator stiffness, aspect ratio of the structure, and the number and layout of isolation bearings. Results show that the standard deviation of the centreline displacement and base shear decrease with increasing number of isolation bearings, and are independent of the aspect ratio and layout of isolators, and in all cases are less than 1/4 the standard deviation of the isolator stiffness. The standard deviation of the corner displacement is a function of all of the system parameters, and is bounded below by the standard deviation of the centreline displacement and above by the standard deviation of a bar aligned perpendicular to the direction of ground motion with m isolation bearings distributed along the length. The approximate expressions are shown to be in good agreement with the results of Monte Carlo simulations. The results should be of use to designers of isolated structures and manufacturers of isolation systems, in assessing the significance of stiffness variability on the response of the isolated structure. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recognition of disturbances with specified morphology in time series: Part 2. Spikes on 1-s magnetograms

Preliminary magnetograms contain different types of temporal anthropogenic disturbances: spikes, baseline jumps, drifts, etc. These disturbances should be identified and filtered out during the preprocessing of the preliminary records for the definitive data. As of now, at the geomagnetic observatories, such filtering is carried out manually. Most of the disturbances in the records sampled every second are spikes, which are much more abundant than those on the magnetograms sampled every minute. Another important feature of the 1-s magnetograms is the presence of a plenty of specific disturbances caused by short-period geomagnetic pulsations, which must be retained in the definitive records. Thus, creating an instrument for formalized and unified recognition of spikes on the preliminary 1-s magnetograms would largely solve the problem of labor-consuming manual preprocessing of the magnetic records. In the context of this idea, in the present paper, we focus on recognition of the spikes on the 1-s magnetograms as a key point of the problem. We describe here the new algorithm of pattern recognition, SPs, which is capable of automatically identifying the spikes on the 1-s magnetograms with a low probability of missed events and false alarms. The algorithm was verified on the real magnetic data recorded at the French observatory located on Easter Island in the Pacific.     

Impact of forest degradation on streamflow regime and runoff response to rainfall in the Garhwal Himalaya,Northwest India

Baseflows have declined for decades in the Lesser Himalaya but the causes are still debated. This paper compares variations in streamflow response over three years for two similar headwater catchments in northwest India with largely undisturbed (Arnigad) and highly degraded (Bansigad) oak forest. Hydrograph analysis suggested no catchment leakage, thereby allowing meaningful comparisons. The mean annual runoff coefficient for Arnigad was 54% (range 44–61%) against 62% (53–69%) at Bansigad. Despite greater total runoff Q_t (by 250 mm year^–1), baseflow at Bansigad ceased by March, but was perennial at Arnigad (making up 90% of Q_t vs. 51% at Bansigad). Arnigad storm flows, Q_s, were modest (8–11% of Q_t) and occurred mostly during monsoons (78–98%), while Q_s at Bansigad was 49% of Q_t and occurred also during post-monsoon seasons. Our results underscore the importance of maintaining soil water retention capacity after forest removal to maintain baseflow levels.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten     

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of hydroclimatic time series with focus on the German part of the Elbe River Basin

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of mean monthly time series of river flow, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, duration of bright sunshine, degree of cloud cover, short wave radiation, wind speed and potential evaporation within or in vicinity of the German part of the Elbe River Basin are analyzed. Statistically significant correlations between the 2–15 year scale‐averaged wavelet spectra of the hydroclimatic variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation‐ and Arctic Oscillation index are found which suggests that such long‐term patterns in hydroclimatic time series are externally forced. The Hurst parameter estimates (H) based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) indicate persistence for discharge, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and the degree of cloud cover, all having an annual cycle and a broad low‐frequency distribution. Also, DFA H parameter estimates are higher for discharge than for precipitation. The major long‐term quasi‐periodic variability modes of precipitation detected using Singular Spectrum Analysis coincide with those detected in the discharge time series. Upon subtraction of these low‐frequency quasi‐periodic modes, the DFA H parameter estimates suggest absence of the persistence for both precipitation and discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of the variability in plan of concrete mechanical properties on the seismic response of existing RC framed structures

A proper characterization of concrete strength is essential to correctly model existing RC structures, whose seismic performance is affected by the poor quality of materials. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the effect of incorrect assumptions for concrete strength and the adequacy of current Codes provisions (Eurocodes, FEMA). Even the effects of the non homogeneity of concrete strength within the building is considered due to its high variability; in fact, buildings can experience an irregular seismic response, both in plan and in elevation. In this work the effects of irregularity in plan due to the strength variability of concrete is analyzed on a case study, a four storey RC framed building, designed for vertical loads only. The variability of concrete strength has been evaluated using the data of an extensive investigation developed by REGIONE TOSCANA on a large sample of RC framed buildings.     

The water balance of an Amazonian micro‐catchment: the effect of interannual variability of rainfall on hydrological behaviour

In humid tropical systems, the large intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall can significantly affect all components of the water balance. This variability and the lack of detailed hydrological and meteorological data in both temporal and spatial scales have created uncertainties regarding the closure of the water balance for the Amazon basin. Previous studies in Amazonian micro‐catchments suggested that both the unsaturated and groundwater system, which are not taken into consideration in basin‐wide water budgets published in the literature, play an important role in controlling the timing of runoff generation. In this paper, the components of the water balance and the variations in different storages within the system were examined using 3 years' data from a 6·58 km² micro‐catchment in central Amazonia. The role and relative importance of the various stores were examined. The results show a strong memory effect in the groundwater system that carries over seasonal climate anomalies from one year to the next and affects the hydrological response well beyond the time span of the anomaly. In addition, the deep unsaturated zone was found to play a key role in reducing most of the intraseasonal variability and also affected the groundwater recharge. This memory effect is crucial for sustaining streamflow and evaporation in years with rainfall deficiency. The memory effect caused by storage in the groundwater and unsaturated systems may also prevent the closure of annual large‐scale water balances, which assume that storage returns to a standard state each year. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recognition of disturbances with specified morphology in time series. Part 1: Spikes on magnetograms of the worldwide INTERMAGNET network

The International Real-time Magnetic Observatory Network (INTERMAGNET) is the world’s biggest international network of ground-based observatories, providing geomagnetic data almost in real time (within 72 hours of collection) [Kerridge, 2001]. The observation data are rapidly transferred by the observatories participating in the program to regional Geomagnetic Information Nodes (GINs), which carry out a global exchange of data and process the results. The observations of the main (core) magnetic field of the Earth and its study are one of the key problems of geophysics. The INTERMAGNET system is the basis of monitoring the state of the Earth’s magnetic field; therefore, the information provided by the system is required to be very reliable. Despite the rigid high-quality standard of the recording devices, they are subject to external effects that affect the quality of the records. Therefore, an objective and formalized recognition with the subsequent remedy of the anomalies (artifacts) that occur on the records is an important task. Expanding on the ideas of Agayan [Agayan et al., 2005] and Gvishiani [Gvishiani et al., 2008a; 2008b], this paper suggests a new algorithm of automatic recognition of anomalies with specified morphology, capable of identifying both physically- and anthropogenically-derived spikes on the magnetograms. The algorithm is constructed using fuzzy logic and, as such, is highly adaptive and universal. The developed algorithmic system formalizes the work of the expert-interpreter in terms of artificial intelligence. This ensures identical processing of large data arrays, almost unattainable manually. Besides the algorithm, the paper also reports on the application of the developed algorithmic system for identifying spikes at the INTERMAGNET observatories. The main achievement of the work is the creation of an algorithm permitting the almost unmanned extraction of spike-free (definitive) magnetograms from preliminary records. This automated system is developed for the first time with the application of fuzzy logic system for geomagnetic measurements. It is important to note that the recognition of time disturbances is formalized and identical. The algorithm presented here appreciably increases the reliability of spike-free INTERMAGNET magnetograms, thus increasing the objectivity of our knowledge of the Earth’s magnetic field. At the same time, the created system can accomplish identical, formalized, and retrospective analysis of large archives of digital and digitized magnetograms, accumulated in the system of Worldwide Data Centers. The relevant project has already been initiated as a collaborative initiative of the Worldwide Data Center at Geophysical Center (Russian Academy of Sciences) and the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (Unite States). Thus, by improving and adding objectivity to both new and historical initial data, the developed algorithmic system may contribute appreciably to improving our understanding of the Earth’s magnetic field.     

Assessment of rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling: A case study in the Brue catchment,UK

This study explores rainfall spatial variability and its influence on runoff modelling. A novel assessment scheme integrated with coefficient of variance and Moran's I is introduced to describe effective rainfall spatial variability. Coefficient of variance is widely accepted to identify rainfall variability through rainfall intensity, whereas Moran's I reflects rainfall spatial autocorrelation. This new assessment framework combines these two indicators to assess the spatial variability derived from both rainfall intensity and distribution, which are crucial in determining the time and magnitude of runoff generation. Four model structures embedded in the Variable Infiltration Capacity model are adopted for hydrological modelling in the Brue catchment of England. The models are assigned with 1, 3, 8, and 27 hydrological response units, respectively, and diverse rainfall spatial information for 236 events are extracted from 1995. This study investigates the model performance of different partitioning based on rainfall spatial variability through peak volume (Q_p) and time to peak (T_p), along with the rainfall event process. The results show that models associated with dense spatial partitioning are broadly capable of capturing more spatial information with better performance. It is unnecessary to utilize models with high spatial density for simple rainfall events, though they show distinct advantages on complex events. With additional spatial information, Q_p experiences a notable improvement over T_p. Moreover, seasonal patterns signified by the assessment scheme imply the feasibility of seasonal models.     

Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees: Horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients

In this study, snowpack series are modeled across the Pyrenees using data derived from the HIRHAM Regional Climate Model for both the control period (1960–1990) and two emission scenarios (SRES B2 and A2) by the end of the 21st century (2070–2100). A comparison of future and control simulations enables us to quantify the expected change in snowpack for the next century. Snow simulations are performed on 20 Regional Climate Model (RCM) grid points over the Pyrenees, covering the entire north–south and east–west transects; data were downscaled for four different altitudinal levels (1500, 2000, 2500, and 3000 m a.s.l.). This procedure yields a relatively complete picture of the expected impacts of climate change in the Pyrenees, covering horizontal spatial variability as well as altitudinal gradients. According to the HIRHAM model projections following different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the thickness and duration of snowpack in the Pyrenees will decrease dramatically over the next century, especially in the central and eastern sectors of the Spanish Pyrenees. The magnitude of these impacts will follow a marked altitudinal gradient: the maximum accumulated snow water equivalent may decrease by up to 78%, and the season with snow cover may be reduced by up to 70% at 1500 m a.s.l. The magnitude of the impacts decreases rapidly with increasing altitude; snowpack characteristics will remain largely similar in the highest sectors. The decline of the snowpack would be reduced by half if a medium–low emission scenario was considered (B2) instead of the medium–high concentrations of greenhouse gas assumed in the A2 scenario.     

Effect of the steel material variability on the seismic capacity design of steel-concrete composite structures: a parametric study

Modern seismic codes recommend the design of ductile structures able to absorb seismic energy through high plastic deformation. Since seismic ductile design relies on an accurate control of plastic hinges formation, which mainly depends on the distribution of plastic resistances of structural elements, efficiency of the design method strongly depends on the actual mechanical properties of materials. The objective of the present contribution is therefore to assess the impact of material variability on the performance of capacity-designed steel-concrete composite moment resisting frames.     

Coupling mechanisms in double sandbar systems. Part 2: impact on alongshore variability of inner‐bar rip channels

Double sandbar systems are common morphological features along sandy, wave‐dominated, micro‐ to meso‐tidal coastlines. In the companion paper, we demonstrated how various alongshore inner‐bar rip‐channel patterns can develop through morphological coupling to an alongshore‐variable outer bar. The simulated coupling patterns are, however, scarcely observed in the field. Instead, inner‐bar rip channels more often possess remarkably smaller and more variable alongshore length scales, suggesting that coupling mechanisms do not play a substantial role in the overall double‐sandbar dynamics. Here we use a numerical model to show that the relative importance of self‐organization and morphological coupling changes in favour of the latter with an increase in waterdepth variability along the outer‐bar crest. Furthermore, we find that the typical alongshore variability in inner‐bar rip‐channel scale is indicative of a mixture of self‐organization and morphological coupling rather than self‐organization alone. Morphological coupling may thus be more important to understanding and predicting the evolution of inner‐bar rip channels than previously envisaged. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of rainfall and soil properties spatial aggregation on extreme flash flood response modelling: An evaluation based on the Sesia river basin,North Western Italy

High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are used to evaluate the sensitivity of flood and flash flood simulations to spatial aggregation of rainfall and soil properties at catchment scales ranging from 75 to 983 km². Hydrologic modeling is based on a Hortonian infiltration model and a network-based representation of hillslope and channel flow. The investigation focuses on three extreme flood and flash flood events occurred on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy, which are analysed by using four aggregation lengths ranging from 1 to 16 km. The influence of rainfall spatial aggregation is examined by using the flow distance as a spatial coordinate, hence emphasising the role of river network in the averaging of space–time rainfall. The effects of reduced and distorted rainfall spatial variability on peak discharge have been found particularly severe for the flash flood events, with peak errors up to 35% for rainfall aggregation of 16 km and at 983 km² catchment size. Effects are particularly remarkable when significant structured rainfall variability combines with relatively important infiltration volumes due to dry initial conditions, as this emphasises the non-linear character of the rainfall–runoff relationship. In general, these results confirm that the correct estimate of rainfall volume is not enough for the accurate reproduction of flash flood events characterised by large and structured rainfall spatial variability, even at catchment scales around 250 km². However, accurate rainfall volume estimation may suffice for less spatially variable flood events. Increasing the soil properties aggregation length exerts similar effects on peak discharge errors as increasing the rainfall aggregation length, for the cases considered here and after rescaling to preserve the rainfall volume. Moreover, peak discharge errors are roughly proportional to runoff volume errors, which indicates that the shape of the flood wave is influenced in a limited way by modifying the detail of the soil property spatial representation. Conversely, rainfall aggregation may exert a pronounced influence on the discharge peak by reshaping the spatial organisation of the runoff volumes and without a comparable impact on the runoff volumes.     

平原河网地区人类活动对降雨-水位关系的影响——以太湖流域杭嘉湖地区为例

太湖流域快速城镇化、水利工程等一系列人类活动对流域水文过程产生了深刻影响.本文以快速城镇化的杭嘉湖地区为例,基于1961-2014年逐日降雨、水位观测资料,构建了水位涨幅（ΔZ）、水位增长速率（k₁）和退水速率（k₂）等指标,旨在揭示变化环境下该地区降雨过程中水位的变化特征及可能的驱动因素.结果表明：1）变化环境下杭嘉湖地区近54年降雨量呈微弱的增加趋势,但降雨过程中的水位涨幅呈下降趋势,尤其是平均水位涨幅呈显著下降趋势,且于2000年左右发生明显变化;突变后水位涨幅下降主要集中在10~50 mm/d的降雨过程中,而大于50 mm/d的降雨过程中突变后水位涨幅较突变前有所升高.2）从空间分布上来看,各站降雨量与水位涨幅存在明显的空间差异,降雨量总体呈增加趋势,增加趋势东强西弱;大部分站点的水位涨幅却呈下降趋势,其中位于区域南部站点的平均水位涨幅下降趋势较东北部更为明显,水位涨幅呈显著下降站点的空间分布与杭嘉湖南排工程等水利工程的分布较为一致.3）通过对杭嘉湖地区降雨过程中水位增长速率和退水速率的变化分析发现,突变后较突变前退水速率有所提高,说明近年来水利工程等设施的完善和有序调度使得杭嘉湖地区的排洪能力有所提高,该变化可能是导致杭嘉湖地区地区突变后一定强度的降雨过程中水位涨幅下降的主要原因.而杭嘉湖地区强降雨过程中水位涨幅依然较高,可能是该地区洪峰水位居高不下的主要原因.此外,由于该地区近年来起涨水位抬升明显,对洪峰水位的抬升也有一定影响.