Rainfall trends in Nigeria

Summary Mean monthly rainfall data of 28 meteorological stations in Nigeria for the period 1911–1980 are analysed to examine trends in precipitation patterns in the country. Specifically, four 40-year periods (1911–50, 1921–60, 1931–70 and 1941–80) have been studied in detail.Results show three prominent features. First, both the amount and area of the secondary rainfall maximum at 9°–10°N latitude in Nigeria has depreciated with time. Second, the belt of relative minimum rainfall, with its east-west axis almost coincident with the channels of the rivers Niger and Benue, appears to be expanding with time. Last, while places north of 8°N latitude (the mean axis of the belt of relative minimum rainfall) receive 90–100% of the annual total rainfall from April to October, fluctuations of the wet or rainy season contribution to total annual rainfall further south is about 84–88%.These aberrations, which imply a decrease in the dry season contribution to the annual rainfall, suggest a drier environment in the long-term, especially if drought spells of the type 1969–73 and 1979–84 become a regular feature in West Africa. The planning implications are discussed in relation to water-use problems.

---

Zusammenfassung Mittlere Monatssummen des Niederschlags von 28 meteorologischen Stationen in Nigeria von 1911–1980 wurden analysiert, um Trends in den Niederschlagsverteilungen des Landes zu untersuchen. Insbesondere wurden die 40-Jahresperioden 1911–50, 1921–60, 1931–70 und 1941–80 bearbeitet.Die Ergebnisse zeigen drei bedeutende Merkmale. Erstens, Menge und Niederschlagsgebiet des sekundären Maximums in 9–10° nördlicher Breite wurden kleiner. Zweitens, der Gürtel eines relativen Niederschlagsminimums, dessen Ost-West-Achse fast mit den Flußläufen von Niger und Benue zusammenfällt, scheint sich auszudehnen. Und schließlich, während Orte nördlich von 8° nördl. Breite (der Hauptachse des Niederschlagsminimums) 90–100% der Jahressumme von April bis Oktober empfangen, beträgt die Schwankung des Anteils von Regen- und Trockenzeit weiter im Süden 84–88%. Diese Abweichungen, die eine Abnahme des Anteils der Trockenzeit zum Gesamtniederschlag bedeuten, lassen in Zukunft eine trockene Umwelt erwarten, besonders wenn die Trockenperioden von 1969–73 und 1979–84 sich wiederholen sollten. Es werden die Folgen für die Planung des Wasserverbrauches diskutiert.

---

---

With 8 Figures     

Evaporation trends

Summary Lake-evaporation rates Eo around the world have been deduced in three ways, using land-based data. The estimates indicate generally decreasing rates of 0.08, 0.13 and 0.05mm/day per decade respectively, i.e. of the order of 0.1mm/d·dec. One method of estimation involves a simplified version of the Penman evaporation formula, which shows that the reduction of Eo is due chiefly to the general lessening of solar radiation at the surface. In consequence of the decline of Eo, a two-regime model of the evaporation from land surfaces shows that there has been a decrease in the rate of actual evaporation from land surfaces Ea also, at places where rainfall exceeds Ep, the rate of water loss from a US Class-A pan evaporimeter. This implies increased runoff there. On the other hand, there is a slight increase of Ea in drier seasons and places, which are more common, implying a little more soil moisture.     

Climatic trends

A 10,000-year long simulation has been made with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global atmospheric-oceanic model for present climatic conditions. The annual mean output from the model has been used to calculate global distributions of climatic trends. These trends were derived by linear regression using a least squares fit to a given climatic time series for a selected trend duration. Typically, this information cannot be obtained from the limited observational record, hence the simulation provides a documentation of many climatic trend characteristics not previously available. A brief examination of observed climatic trends is given to demonstrate the viability of the trend analysis. This is followed by a range of global trend distributions for various climatic variables and trend durations. At any one time only relatively small regions of the globe have trends significant at the 95% level. Markedly different trend patterns occur for a given trend duration computed for different times within the simulation. Decadal and multi-decadal trend patterns revealed consistent relationships for El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related climatic variables. It was found that within a given duration trend, noticeable shorter term counter-trends can exist, with the latter being much stronger. In general, a strong trend is indicative of a short duration, thus highlighting the danger of extrapolating such trends. Examination of time series of climatic trends emphasised the dominance of decadal variability and the essential residual nature of, especially longer term, trends. Rainfall trends over Australia are used to indicate the almost continent-wide changes that can occur in trend patterns within a few decades, in agreement with observation. The outcome emphasises that any changes in current, observed climatic trends should not automatically be attributed to greenhouse forcing. Importantly, it is noted that for conditions associated with naturally occurring climatic variability, the global mean of any climatic trend distribution should be zero or near zero. Departures from this situation imply the existence of an external forcing agency. Thousand year trends could be readily identified within the simulation, but the variations from millennium to millennium indicate the occurrence of secular variability. A probability density function distribution of 30-year duration trends within a selected millennium revealed a near-Gaussian outcome. This, together with other analyses, supports the conclusion that stochastic processes dominate the climatic variability within the simulation.     

Examining evapotranspiration trends in Africa

Surface temperatures are projected to increase 3–4°C over much of Africa by the end of the 21st century. Precipitation projections are less certain, but the most plausible scenario given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that the Sahel and East Africa will experience modest increases (~5%) in precipitation by the end of the 21st century. Evapotranspiration (E_a) is an important component of the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles that impact several climate properties, processes, and feedbacks. The interaction of E_a with climate change drivers remains relatively unexplored in Africa. In this paper, we examine the trends in E_a, precipitation (P), daily maximum temperature (T_max), and daily minimum temperature (T_min) on a seasonal basis using a 31?year time series of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface model (LSM) E_a. The VIC model captured the magnitude, variability, and structure of observed runoff better than other LSMs and a hybrid model included in the analysis. In addition, we examine the inter-correlations of E_a, P, T_max, and T_min to determine relationships and potential feedbacks. Unlike many IPCC climate change simulations, the historical analysis reveals substantial drying over much of the Sahel and East Africa during the primary growing season. In the western Sahel, large increases in daily maximum temperature appear linked to E_a declines, despite modest rainfall recovery. The decline in E_a and latent heating in this region could lead to increased sensible heating and surface temperature, thus establishing a possible positive feedback between E_a and surface temperature.     

Turbulent carbon exchange in very stable conditions

Turbulent fluxes obtained using the conventional eddy covariance approach result in erratic results with large time fluctuations in extremely stable conditions. This can limit efforts to estimate components of the nocturnal energy budget and respiratory CO₂ fluxes. Well-organized fluxes that show a clear dependence on turbulent intensity were obtained when multiresolution decomposition was used to estimate turbulent exchanges. CO₂, heat and water vapour fluxes were observed at a site in the eastern Amazon basin that had been cleared for agricultural purposes. Temporal scales of the carbon transfer were determined and shown to be similar to those of latent heat, but as much as three times larger than those of sensible heat. CO₂ eddy diffusivities at the temporal scales on which most of the vertical CO₂ exchange occurs are shown to be 50 times larger than the eddy diffusivity for heat. A process associated with the vertical scale of the scalar accumulation layer is suggested to explain these different scales and turbulent diffusivities of carbon and sensible heat transfer. For an appreciable range of turbulence intensities, the observed vertical turbulent carbon exchange is insufficient to account for the locally respired CO₂ estimated independently. Evidence that shallow drainage currents may account for this is given.     

Temperature and insolation trends in Hawaii

Summary Surface data for the Hawaiian Islands indicate a reciprocal relationship between measured air temperature and solar radiation. This may indicate a negative feedback relation between these elements for the large maritime region of the north central Pacific Ocean.

---

Zusammenfassung Oberflächendaten der Hawaiischen Inseln deuten auf eine reziproke Beziehung zwischen den gemessenen Lufttemperaturen und der Sonneneinstrahlungen. Dies kann als Hinweis auf ein negatives Feedback zwischen den genannten Elementen im großen maritimen Gebiet des nördlichen Zentralpazifik gelten.

---

---

With 1 Figure     

Changing trends of thermal extremes in Pakistan

Extreme events have gained considerable scientific attention recently due to their potentially catastrophic impacts. Heat waves are thought to be more pronounced now in most parts of the world, and especially in South Asia, but doubts remain. The aim of this study is to calculate the frequency and intensity of heat waves in South Asia, focusing on Pakistan and identifying the regions within Pakistan that are most vulnerable to heat waves. Analyses have been performed both at provincial and country levels from 1961 to 2009. The provincial level analysis shows positive trends for heat waves of magnitudes ≥40°C and ≥45°C for 5 and 7 consecutive days. Events of magnitude ≥40°C and ≥45°C for 10 consecutive days also increased in frequency in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. These regions are therefore considered to be the regions most vulnerable to heat wave events in Pakistan. The Balochistan region shows a consistently increasing trend throughout the study period, which may lead to more frequent drought in the future. The country level analysis indicates an increase in the frequency of 5 and 7 consecutive days heat waves at all defined temperature thresholds. The 10-days heat waves spells show a slight increase at ≥40°C and no significant change at ≥45°C. The Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir areas reported no events at ≥45°C for 5, 7 and 10 continuous days. It is anticipated that with a long term rise in temperatures around the globe, heat waves will become more frequent and intense in all parts of the world, including Pakistan.     

Recent climatic trends in the tropical Atlantic

A homogeneous monthly data set of sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress based on in situ observations is used to investigate the climatic trends over the tropical Atlantic during the last five decades (1964–2012). After a decrease of SST by about 1 °C during 1964–1975, most apparent in the northern tropical region, the entire tropical basin warmed up. That warming was the most substantial (>1 °C) in the eastern tropical ocean and in the longitudinal band of the intertropical convergence zone. Surprisingly, the trade wind system also strengthened over the peirod 1964–2012. Complementary information extracted from other observational data sources confirms the simultaneity of SST warming and the strengthening of the surface winds. Examining data sets of surface heat flux during the last few decades for the same region, we find that the SST warming was not a consequence of atmospheric heat flux forcing. Conversely, we suggest that long-term SST warming drives changes in atmosphere parameters at the sea surface, most notably an increase in latent heat flux, and that an acceleration of the hydrological cycle induces a strengthening of the trade winds and an acceleration of the Hadley circulation. These trends are also accompanied by rising sea levels and upper ocean heat content over similar multi-decadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic. Though more work is needed to fully understand these long term trends, especially what happens from the mid-1970’s, it is likely that changes in ocean circulation involving some combination of the Atlantic meridional overtuning circulation and the subtropical cells are required to explain the observations.     

Inference about trends in global temperature data

Interpretation of the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide on temperature is made more difficult by the fact that it is unclear whether sufficient global warming has taken place to allow a statistically significant finding of any upward trend in the temperature series. We add to the few existing statistical results by reporting tests for both deterministic and stochastic non-stationarity (trends) in time series of global average temperature. We conclude that the statistical evidence is sufficient to reject the hypothesis of a stochastic trend; however, there is evidence of a trend which could be approximated by a deterministic linear model.The authors are grateful to the SSHRC (Green) and FCAR (Galbraith) for financial support under grants 10-89-0205 and NC-0047.     

Wintertime climatic trends in the western Himalayas

Northern Indian rivers are primarily fed by wintertime (December, January, February—DJF) precipitation, in the form of snow—yielded by eastward moving synoptic weather systems called Western Disturbances (WDs), over the western Himalayas (WH). This accumulated snow melts during ablation period. In the context of today’s warming atmosphere, it is imperative to study the changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns over the WH to assess the impact of global warming on climatic conditions of the region. Keeping that in mind, observational analysis of temperature and precipitation fields is planned. In the present study various climatic indices are analyzed based on wintertime (DJF) data of 30?years (1975–2006) obtained from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), India. Results indicate enhancement in the surface air temperature across the WH. Percent number of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) during 1975–2006 over the WH. Further analysis of precipitation reveals slightly decreasing but inconsistent trends.     

Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in China

Summary Regional characteristics of recent precipitation indices in China were analyzed from a daily rainfall dataset based on 494 stations during 1961 to 2000. Some indices such as precipitation percentiles, precipitation intensity, and precipitation persistence were used and their inter-decadal differences were shown in this study. Over the last 40 years, precipitation indices in China showed increasing and decreasing trends separated into three main regions. A decreasing trend of annual precipitation and summer precipitation was observed from the southern part of northeast China to the mid-low Yellow River valley and the upper Yangtze River valley. This region also showed a decreasing trend in precipitation intensity and a decreasing trend in the frequency of persistent wet days. On the other hand, increasing trends in precipitation intensity were found in the Xinjiang region (northwest China), the northern part of northeast China, and southeast China, mainly to the south of the mid-low Yangtze River. The indices of persistent wet days and strong rainfall have contributed to the increasing frequency of floods in southeast China and the Xinjiang region in the last two decades. Persistent dry days and weakening rainfall have resulted in the increasing frequency of drought along the Yellow River valley including North China. Regional precipitation characteristics and trends in precipitation indices indicate the climate state variations in the last four decades. A warm-wet climate state was found in northwest China and in the northern part of northeast China. A warm-dry climate state extends from the southern part of northeast China to the Yellow River valley, while a cool-wet summer was found in southeast China, particularly in the mid-low Yangtze River valley over the last two decades.     

Coherent structures in the very stable atmospheric boundary layer

This study examines the structure of horizontal modes (meandering, vortical modes or fossil turbulence) in a layer of intermittent turbulence occurring at the top of a strongly stratified nocturnal inversion layer as observed by fast response aircraft data. The spatial variation of the coefficients of the principal components identify regular coherent structures with mainly horizontal motions. Conditional sampling is formulated in terms of this spatial variation. The quasi-horizontal motions are characterized by relatively sharp edges (transition zones) where horizontal convergence or divergence, small-scale turbulence and vertical fluxes seem to be concentrated. Zones of horizontal divergence appear to be associated with ejection of cold air from the underlying surface inversion while the convergent zones might be due to random collisions between horizontal modes.     

Recent trends in Australian region tropical cyclone activity

Summary The number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region (south of equator; 105–160° E) has apparently declined since the start of reliable (satellite) observations in the 1969/70 season. However, the number of more intense cyclones (with minimum pressures dropping to 970 hPa or lower) has increased slightly. The numbers of weak (minimum pressures not dropping below 990 hPa) and moderate systems (minimum pressures between 970 and 990 hPa) have declined. Possible reasons for these different trends are discussed. The decline in the number of weaker cyclones may at least partly reflect improved understanding of the nature of some weak systems. The decline in the number of cyclones more intense than 990 hPa primarily reflects the downward trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Previous work has demonstrated that the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region each cyclone season is related to the value of the SOI prior to the start of the cyclone season. This relationship is clearest with the number of moderate cyclones. The SOI is only weakly related to the number of intense or weak cyclones. The increase in the number of intense cyclones is not attributable to the trend in the SOI. Nor is there clear reason, at present, to suspect that it is artificial (i.e., due to changes in observing or analysis techniques).With 7 Figures     

Temperature trends in Japan: 1900–1996

Summary ?Long-term trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly mean temperature (abbreviated as AMT, SMT, MMT, respectively) in Japan are investigated. The magnitude of a trend is measured by assuming it to be linear. The statistical significance of a site trend is assessed by the Mann-Kendall (MK) with consideration of serial correlation. The statistical field significance of trends in three major climatic regions: Hokkaido (I), areas adjacent to the Japan sea (II), and to the Pacific Ocean (III), is evaluated by the bootstrapping test which preserves cross-correlation among sites. From 1900 to 1996, AMT increased from 0.51 to 2.77 °C averaged across all 46 sites. At the regional scale, AMT increased by 1.38, 1.08, and 1.32 °C in regions I, II, and III, respectively. The trends at both sites and regions are statistically significant even at the significance level (α) of 0.005. SMT increased from 0.47 to 3.69 °C at all the 19 available sites with the highest increases in winter and spring. Except for a few series, the changes in SMT are statistically significant at α = 0.01. The upward trends in SMT are statistically significant even at α = 0.001 in both regions II and III. MMT at 19 sites increased within a wide range from 0.17 to 4.12 °C. The increases are largest in the winter and spring months, and most of the site increases are statistically significant at α = 0.05. The trends are statistically significant at α = 0.025 and 0.001 in regions II and III, respectively. The trends in both SMT and MMT in region III are larger than those in region II. Received January 28, 2002; revised November 11, 2002; accepted December 1, 2002 Published online May 19, 2003     

Possibilities to detect trends in spectral UV irradiance

Summary It is investigated how long-term UV trends can be assessed by analysing the longest time series of measured spectral UV irradiance in Europe, which have been started in the early 1990s in Thessaloniki, Greece and Sodankylä, Finland. It can be concluded that both time series do not yet show an unambiguous yearly trend in UV irradiance. The regression lines show no uniform behaviour and vary irregularly in strength and from one solar zenith angle to the next if all sky conditions are analysed. It is emphasised that these findings do not disagree with previous studies, that significant changes in UV irradiance have been observed over Europe especially in spring.Our study introduces a new method to estimate the required time series length for trend detection using the measured time series in combination with model calculations. At Sodankylä, a reduction of the total ozone column of –5.7% per decade has been observed from 1979 to 1998. A positive UV trend due to such conditions may be detected after 12 years at the earliest. For Thessalonki, a decrease in total ozone of –4.5% per decade has been observed. A corresponding increase of UV irradiance should be detectable after 15 years. It should be noted that a constant ozone trend over the whole period had to be assumed for this analysis.Since 1990 there has been a considerable variability of total ozone, but no steady decrease could be observed. Consequently, no general UV increase could be expected due to ozone changes. Even if there was a constant ozone trend over that period it is shown that even the longest European time series of UV irradiance are still too short to show distinct trends. However, this does not imply that no changes have occurred, it only shows that the large natural variability of UV irradiance has so far hindered the identification of unambiguous trends. The only way to find significant and consistent UV trends is the continuation of high-quality long-term measurements of spectral UV irradiance.     

On rising temperature trends of Karachi in Pakistan

Karachi is the largest city of Pakistan. The temperature change in Karachi is studied in this research by analyzing the time series data of mean maximum temperature (MMxT), mean minimum temperature (MMiT) and mean annual temperature (MAT) from 1947 to 2005 (59 years). Data is analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies of all time periods: (a) whole period from 1947–2005; (b) phase one 1947–1975 and (c) phase two 1976–2005. During 1947 to 2005 MMxT has increased about 4.6°C, MMiT has no change and MAT has increased 2.25°C. During 1947–1975, MMxT increased 1.9°C, in this period there is − 1.3°C decrease in MMiT and MAT has raised upto 0.3°C. During 1976–2005, the MMxT, MMiT and MAT increased 2.7°C, 1.2°C and 1.95°C, respectively. The analysis shows significantly the role of extreme vulnerability of MMxT in rising the temperature of Karachi than the MMiT.     

Observed trends in diurnal temperature range over Nigeria

本文基于站点观测及再分析资料,考察了1979–2013年期间尼日利亚不同地区温度日较差(DTR)的变化趋势及其可能原因。结果表明,尼日利亚北部萨赫勒地区(NSR)日最低温的增温趋势显著大于日最高温增加的趋势,导致该区域DTR呈显著下降趋势(–0.34°C/10年);而在南部几内亚湾地区(NGC),区域平均日最高温度增加趋势略大于最低温度的增加趋势,导致该区域平均DTR呈微弱上升趋势(0.01°C/10年)。NSR区域显著的DTR下降趋势与该地区降水量呈长期增加趋势密切相关,而NGC区域DTR的增加趋势则可归因于该地区云量存在的长期减少趋势。     

Climatology and trends of wet spells in China

Summary Climatological features and variations of wet spells, especially their trends over China, are investigated using a dataset of 594 meteorological stations across China from 1951 to 2003. The results show that the lower the latitude is, the longer the annual duration of wet spells is. The mean annual precipitation from wet spells is higher in southeastern coastal areas and much lower in western and northern China. The longest wet spells are found in Southwest China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The maximum daily precipitation of wet spells decreases from the southeast to the northwest, with the highest in southeastern coastal areas and the lowest in western China. The trends of wet spells exhibit striking regional differences. In most areas of western China, the annual number of days in wet spells has slightly increased, but significantly decreased over North China, Central China and Southwest China. The annual precipitation amount from wet spells displays significant downward trends in North China, eastern Northeast China and the eastern part of Southwest China, but upward trends in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and some southeastern coastal areas. Two clearly-contrasting regions in climatic changes of wet spells are the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River and the eastern Tibetan Plateau, characterized by a decrease of about 24 days and an increase of about 6 days in annual wet spell days from 1953 to 2003, respectively.     

Snowfall trends and variability in Qinghai, China

Snow is an important component of a climate system, and very sensitive to climate change, and it can be an indicator of checking and monitoring global change. This paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of snowfall in Qinghai, located in western China. We used the Mann-Kendall test to evaluate the annual and monthly trends in snowfall in Qinghai during the periods 1957/58–2006/07 based on data obtained from 25 stations. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95, and 99 percent confidence levels were detected for numerous stations. In order to understand the regional pattern of snowfall in Qinghai, the detected trends are spatially interpolated using the inverse distance weighted interpolation method in a GIS environment. The results indicate that in January snowfall in the most area of Qinghai shows a significant upward trend, especially in the Delingha and Nomhon area in northern Qaidam Basin, as well as southeastern Qinghai, however, there is no significant downward trend area. The trend analysis indicates that annual snowfall has a significant upward trend in Delingha and Nomhon area in northern Qaidam Basin, and the downward trends occurred in the Qilian mountain area and Gonghe Basin. This is especially the case for highlighting the spatial structure of snowfall trends. The research results help in further understanding the regional pattern of snowfall in Qinghai and its response to global climatic warming.