Copper demand,supply, and associated energy use to 2050

To a set of well-regarded international scenarios (UNEP’s GEO-4), we have added consideration of the demand, supply, and energy implications related to copper production and use over the period 2010–2050. To our knowledge, these are the first comprehensive metal supply and demand scenarios to be developed. We find that copper demand increases by between 275 and 350% by 2050, depending on the scenario. The scenario with the highest prospective demand is not Market First (a “business as usual” vision), but Equitability First, a scenario of transition to a world of more equitable values and institutions. These copper demands exceed projected copper mineral resources by mid-century and thereafter. Energy demand for copper production also demonstrates strong increases, rising to as much as 2.4% of projected 2050 overall global energy demand. We investigate possible policy responses to these results, concluding that improving the efficiency of the copper cycle and encouraging the development of copper-free energy distribution on the demand side, and improving copper recycling rates on the supply side are the most promising of the possible options. Improving energy efficiency in primary copper production would lead to a reduction in the energy demand by 0.5% of projected 2050 overall global energy demand. In addition, encouraging the shift towards renewable technologies is important to minimize the impacts associated with copper production.     

Debating clean energy: Frames,counter frames,and audiences

In the United States, both scholars and practitioners have repeatedly emphasized the importance of “issue framing” for garnering public support for climate change policy. However, the debate frequently overlooks the importance of counter frames. For every framing attempt by advocates of climate policy, there will be a counter frame by the opponents of climate policy. How do counter frames influence the effectiveness of issue framing as a communication strategy? To answer this question, we report results from a survey experiment on a nationally representative sample of 1000 Americans on clean energy policy, a key policy issue in the public debate on climate change in the United States. Overall, we find that different combinations of positive and negative frames have remarkably little effect on support for clean energy policy. A follow-up on-line survey experiment with a convenience sample of 2000 Americans suggests that the counter frames are responsible for undermining the effects of the original frames.     

Public climate-change skepticism,energy preferences and political participation

Many studies have shown a general decline of public concern about climate change or vice versa a rise in public climate-change skepticism, in particular in the U.S. and other Anglo-Saxon countries. There is a vivid debate on whether this is a global phenomenon, on which factors explain the decline, and on the broader societal implications of these trends in the context of the transformation toward a low-carbon society. We add to this literature by presenting the results of a recent general population survey in Germany in which we looked for systematic linkages between public climate-change skepticism on one hand, and energy preferences and political participation on the other. Germany is an interesting testbed as it is currently involved in a large-scale restructuring of its system of energy supply toward renewable energy sources (the “Energiewende”). Our results indicate that climate-change skepticism has not diffused widely in Germany, but that it correlates with less support of renewable energy sources. However, skepticism correlates negatively with political participation, and there is no strong political outlet for public climate-change skepticism in Germany. Alternative potential barriers for the successful implementation of the “Energiewende” are also discussed.     

The contribution of energy law to the energy transition and energy research

This article focuses on energy law’s contribution to the energy transition and to research on that transition. It is well known that law plays a pivotal role in governing the energy sector and has fundamental implications for the pursuit of the low-carbon transition. Despite this fact, law often remains confined within its silo, inaccessible to non-lawyers due to its distinctive methodological characteristics and internal jargon. This article aims to initiate an accessible dialogue between energy law and other energy-focused disciplines. It first explains how energy law, as a legal discipline, should be understood in this context and what that implies for energy law as a system of governance. It then explores the interface between energy law and other disciplines in which research into the energy transition is carried out. The article identifies and evaluates the roles of energy law in the energy transition, concluding with a summary of the implications of the role of energy law for the energy transition and for energy research.     

IPCC AR6报告解读：地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度

文中对IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组（WGI）报告的第七章关于地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度中的重要内容进行了凝练,并简要总结该方面的最新研究成果和结论。评估显示,自工业革命以来,人类活动造成的有效辐射强迫（ERF）为2.72 [1.96~3.48] W/m²,其中,均匀混合温室气体的贡献为3.32 [3.03~3.61] W/m²,气溶胶的贡献为-1.1 [-1.7~-0.4] W/m²。净的气候反馈参数为-1.16 [-1.81~-0.51] W/(m²∙℃),云仍然是气候反馈整体不确定性的最大来源。平衡态气候敏感度（ECS）和瞬态气候响应（TCR）可用于评估全球平均地表气温对强迫的响应,是衡量全球气候响应的有效手段。ECS和TCR的最佳估计分别为3.0 [2.0~5.0]℃和1.8 [1.2~2.4]℃。     

瓦房店地区风能资源分析

风能作为无污染可再生能源有着巨大的发展潜力。为较准确地掌握瓦房店地区的风能资源分布情况,利用1971—2007年瓦房店地区及周边共9个测风点的测风资料对风能资源评估参数进行了计算和分析。结果表明:瓦房店沿海地区风能资源丰富,风能自西部沿海地区向东部内陆地区呈由多到少降阶梯形的分布趋势。瓦房店地区月平均风速在春季和秋末冬初形成2个波峰,离海岸越近的站点秋末冬初的波峰越明显,而离海岸越远的站点秋末冬初的波峰越弱。瓦房店地区从西部沿海经中部到东部内陆优势风向呈近似逆时针方向的转动。     

瓦房店地区风能资源分析

风能作为无污染可再生能源有着巨大的发展潜力。为较准确地掌握瓦房店地区的风能资源分布情况,利用1971--2007年瓦房店地区及周边共9个测风点的测风资料对风能资源评估参数进行了计算和分析。结果表明：瓦房店沿海地区风能资源丰富,风能自西部沿海地区向东部内陆地区呈由多到少降阶梯形的分布趋势。瓦房店地区月平均风速在春季和秋末冬初形成2个波峰,离海岸越近的站点秋末冬初的波峰越明显,而离海岸越远的站点秋末冬初的波峰越弱。瓦房店地区从西部沿海经中部到东部内陆优势风向呈近似逆时针方向的转动。     

The effect of African growth on future global energy,emissions, and regional development

Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa’s future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5 % and 20 % of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4 % and 10 % of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today.     

Local energy exchanges in a shallow,coastal lagoon: Summer conditions

Abstract

Meteorological and hydrographic data from the Indian River lagoon on the Atlantic coast of South Florida are used to describe the magnitude and relative importance of local heat flux processes in a bar‐built estuary for summer conditions. Over a 72‐day period in 1979, the energy gain by absorbed net insolation, averaging 316 W m^‐2 is very nearly balanced by the energy loss due to net long‐wave radiation (‐61 W m^‐2), sensible heat loss (‐54 W m^‐2) and evaporation (‐194 W m^‐2). Day‐to‐day imbalances, however, result in cycles of heating and cooling over time scales on the order of 4–6 days. Water temperatures fluctuate only ±0.5–1.0°C about the seasonal normal, reflecting relatively stable meteorological conditions. Heat energy stored in these estuarine waters in summer months is most highly correlated with the absorption of net insolation.     

Atmospheric equilibrium,instability and energy transport at the last glacial maximum

A range of diagnostics from two GCM simulations, one of the present-day climate and one of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is used to gain insight into their different temperature structures and eddy dynamics. There are large local increases in baroclinicity at the LGM, especially in the Atlantic storm track, with large accompanying increases in the low level transient eddy heat flux. However, the differences in the zonal mean are much smaller, and the increases in both baroclinicity and heat flux are confined to low levels. Supplementary experiments with baroclinic wave lifecycles confirm the marked contrast between local and zonal mean behaviour, but do not adequately explain the differences between the zonal mean climates. The total flux of energy across latitude circles in the Northern Hemisphere does not change much during DJF, although its transient component is actually reduced at the LGM (during JJA the transient component is increased). Calculations of total linear eddy diffusivity reveal that changes in the time mean stationary waves are chiefly responsible for the seasonal range of this quantity at the LGM, while they only account for half the seasonal range at the present-day.     

全球大气能量演变及其与太阳活动的关系

利用1979—2010年间的JRA-25再分析资料、太阳常数观测资料,重现了1979—2010年间的各能量的时间序列,并对整层大气、对流层大气和平流层大气这3个大气层能量的演变规律及其与太阳活动的关系进行了分析。结果表明:(1)整层大气的总能量和对流层大气的总能量,两者都存在一个显著的3.7 a的周期;而平流层大气的总能量具有一个显著的11~22 a的振荡周期;平流层大气对太阳活动的响应,与对流层大气对太阳活动的响应有所不同:平流层大气的总能量的变化略落后于太阳常数的变化,但是整层大气和对流层大气的总能量的变化均是超前于太阳常数的变化。(2)整层大气、对流层大气和平流层大气这3个层次的总能量和太阳常数分别具有显著的4~11 a的共振周期、5.5~7.3 a的共振周期和3.7~11 a的共振周期。     

Contested energy futures: Shaping renewable energy narratives in Australia

Narratives and discourses are central to how we interpret and understand the world. The capacity to construct and disseminate compelling stories about particular issues is hence critical to an agent's capacity to advance their interests. This paper examines some of the main narratives through which the conversation about renewable energy in Australia takes place. We label these narratives feasibility (‘Pie in the Sky’); security (‘Keeping the Lights on’); cost (‘Costing the Earth’); and employment (‘Jobs Carnage’). Some of the most effective narratives are those that are constructed around some of the ‘legitimate’ concerns that pertain to an issue. The renewable energy narratives identified in this paper build on ‘reasonableness’ and ‘common sense’ concerns, and their effectiveness is determined as much by contextualising information absent from the energy conversation as present. While our focus is Australia, some of the narrative dynamics revealed have application to energy politics more broadly.     

On hurricane energy

Warm seawater is the energy source for hurricanes. Interfacial sea-to-air heat transfer without spray ranges from 100?W?m^?2 in light wind to 1,000?W?m^?2 in hurricane force wind. Spray can increase sea-to-air heat transfer by two orders of magnitude and result in heat transfers of up to 100,000?W?m^?2. Drops of spray falling back in the sea can be 2–4?°C colder than the drops leaving the sea, thus transferring a large quantity of heat from sea to air. The heat of evaporation is taken from the sensible heat of the remainder of the drop; evaporating approximately 0.3?% of a drop is sufficient to reduce its temperature to the wet bulb temperature of the air. The heat required to evaporate hurricane precipitation is roughly equal to the heat removed from the sea indicating that sea cooling is due to heat removal from above and not to the mixing of cold water from below. The paper shows how case studies of ideal thermodynamic processes can help explain hurricane intensity.     

Conflicted transitions: Exploring the actors,tactics, and outcomes of social opposition against energy infrastructure

Given the growing frequency, severity, and salience of social mobilization and community action on energy and climate issues, in this study we systematically explore the configurations of types of infrastructure, actors, tactics, and outcomes of recent opposition to energy transitions across seven carbon-intensive regions in Asia, Europe, and North America. Based on both a literature review and an original dataset of 130 case studies spanning the past decade, we track opposition to a wide range of energy infrastructure in these regions, including low-carbon options such as renewable energy and nuclear power; provide network analyses of the actors and coalitions involved in such events; and develop a typology and frequency analysis of tactics (such as litigation or protest), and outcomes (such as remuneration, policy change, concessions, or labor protections). We show that the politics of energy transitions in carbon-intensive regions varies significantly from country to country and across types of energy, and we discuss how the configurations of infrastructure, actors, tactics, and outcomes can be explained by differences in national institutions and their responses to global or supranational pressures. By bringing both a sociotechnical and comparative perspective to the global analysis of social movements and energy transitions, we suggest how goals of energy transition are refracted through national and subnational institutions and through local mobilizations both in support of and opposed to those transitions.     

A study of the mass,momentum and energy budget of the atmosphere

Production and expenditure rates in the terrestrial budget of various air properties (mass of precipitable water and carbon dioxide, zonal and root mean square momentum, heat, and entropy) are studied. The discussion is based on graphs and diagrams which illustrate the global radiation and heat budget, dynamical energy forms and conversions, hydrologic and carbon dioxide cycles, and meridional cross sections of mass, momentum, heat, and entropy budget terms. A comparison of atmospheric property holdings with expenditure rates results in a fictitious interval of time required to annull the holdings. For momentum, precipitable water, and heat this interval of time has the order of magnitude of 10⁰, 10¹, and 10² days, respectively.

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Zusammenfassung Es werden die Einnahme- und Ausgabeposten beim terrestrischen Haushalt verschiedener Eigenschaften der Luft (Wasserdampf und Kohlensäure als Beispiele von Masseneigenschaften, ferner zonal-vektorieller und skalarer Impuls, Wärme und Entropie) untersucht. Die Diskussion wird durch graphische Darstellungen und Diagramme unterstützt, welche folgende Größen veranschaulichen: den globalen Strahlungs- und Wärmehaushalt, dynamische Energieformen und ihre Umwandlungen, Wasserkreislauf und Kohlensäurekreislauf, sowie Bilanzposten der Massen-, Impuls-, Wärme- und Entropiebilanz in Meridionalschnitten. Eine Vergleichung des Gehalts der Atmosphäre an verschiedenen Eigenschaften mit ihren Verlusten liefert ein fiktives Zeitintervall, in welchem die Reserven aufgebraucht würden, wenn kein Ersatz nachgeliefert würde; die Größenordnung dieses Zeitintervalles ergibt sich zu 10⁰, 10¹ und 10² Tagen für Impuls, Wasserdampf und Wärme.

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Résumé L'auteur étudie la production et la dépense dans le bilan terrestre des différentes propriétés de l'air (la vapeur d'eau et le dioxyde de carbone comme exemples de propriétés de masse, puis la quantité de mouvement zonale-vectorielle et scalaire, la chaleur et l'entropie). Des graphiques illustrent la discussion qui représentent les grandeurs suivantes: économie globale de la radiation et de la chaleur, formes dynamiques de l'énergie et leurs transformations, cycles hydrologique et du dioxyde de carbone, ainsi que les composantes du bilan des masses, de la quantité de mouvement, de la chaleur et de l'entropie en coupes méridionales. La comparaison du contenu des diverses propriétés dans l'atmosphère avec leurs pertes est fournie par un intervalle de temps fictif, pendant lequel les réserves seraient épuisées, au cas où leur renouvellement ferait défaut; l'ordre de grandeur de cet intervalle résulte à 10⁰, 10¹ et 10² jours respectivement pour la quantité de mouvement, la vapeur d'eau et la chaleur.

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With 8 Figures.     

Suburban-rural energy balance comparisons in summer for Vancouver,B.C.

Simultaneous energy balance observations at a rural and a suburban site in Vancouver, B.C. during the summer of 1983 are presented. The study is a follow-up to that conducted in 1980. Many of the 1980 results were unexpected and the present study seeks to assess their representativeness. The net radiant, turbulent sensible, and rural soil heat flux densities were measured directly. The suburban heat storage was parameterized and the turbulent latent heat flux densities were resolved as residuals in the energy balances. The 1983 average diurnal energy partitioning for both sites was typical of those quoted in the literature, suggesting that the 1980 results represent an extreme case. Suburban-rural differences showed the suburban area to have a 4% increase in net radiation, a 51% increase in turbulent sensible heat, and a 46% decrease in turbulent latent heat flux density. The values of the average daytime Bowen ratio were 0.46 and 1.28 for the rural and suburban areas, respectively. The sensible heat flux density exhibited relatively large values in the late afternoon and remained directed upward on many summer evenings. Large day-to-day variability in the relative magnitude of the suburban turbulent fluxes may have been due to synoptic influences. In this environment, the turbulent surface and mixed layers are closely coupled because of the low aerodynamic resistance over the rough surface.     

Water and energy fluxes in the lower Mackenzie valley, 1994/95

Abstract

The 1994/95 water year in the lower Mackenzie Valley was an extraordinary year hydrologically, with the important winter to summer transition being the earliest on record. Unlike more temperate areas, the northern water year is dominated, to a great extent, by this onset of spring which results in the melting of nearly half of the annual precipitation over a period of a few weeks, initiates the thawing of the river and lake ice and the soil active layer, and marks the beginning of the evaporation season. An early winter to summer transition occurred at two small research basins in the Inuvik area and at the East Channel of the Mackenzie River Delta. At the research basins, for example, the spring of 1994/95 had the earliest onset of continuous above‐freezing air temperatures, removal of the snow cover, and initiation of runoff. Consideration of the entire water year at the research basins demonstrates that rain and snow were nearly equal in magnitude, evaporation exceeded runoff, and the annual change in storage was negative to near zero. This negative change in storage was related to the long, snow‐free evaporation season, above‐average air temperatures, and below‐normal precipitation. The unusual winter to summer transition on the Mackenzie River in the eastern portion of the Mackenzie Delta was, in many ways, even more remarkable than that in the research basins. Earlier work had suggested that the timing of the spring breakup was very consistent from year to year. An analysis of the timing of breakup from the early 1960s to the late 1990s, however, shows a trend towards earlier spring breakup, with the mean for the 1990s being nine days earlier than that for the 1960s, and with the 1995 breakup being the earliest on record. Such an early breakup is not only an indication of warm local conditions, but of warm temperatures and an early runoff event over the more southerly areas of the Mackenzie basin. A companion Mackenzie Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment study illustrates the importance of a high pressure circulation pattern centred east of the basin to this early melt event.