A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

Among the coastal districts of mega city Istanbul, Bakirkoy is one of the most critical one with the importance of air and marine transportation and presence of many other coastal facilities and structures that are prone to suffer from marine hazards. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquake and landslide events and associated tsunamis. Therefore, tsunami risk assessment is essential for all coastal districts of Istanbul, including Bakirkoy district. In this study, a further developed methodology for tsunami human vulnerability and risk assessment Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment (MeTHuVA) is applied for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, considering earthquake generated tsunamis. High-resolution tsunami hazard analysis is performed with the integration of coastal inundation computation with tsunami numerical tool NAMI DANCE and tsunami human vulnerability assessment with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis methods (MCDA). Using analytical hierarchy process method of MCDA, a hierarchical structure is established, composed of two main elements of tsunami human vulnerability: Vulnerability at Location and Evacuation Resilience. Tsunami risk assessment for Bakirkoy district is calculated by integrating result of hazard and vulnerability assessments with a risk relation that includes a parameter (n), which represents the preparedness and awareness level of the community. Tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 m. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakirkoy district, and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. Hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results for different neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district are presented and discussed.     

Equivalent-Linear Seismic Ground Response Analysis of Some Typical Sites in Mumbai

Any earthquake event is associated with a rupture mechanism at the source, propagation of seismic waves through underlying rock and finally these waves travel through the soil layers to the particular site of interest. The bedrock motion is significantly modified at the ground surface due to the presence of local soil layers above the bedrock beneath the site of interest. The estimation of the amplifications in ground response due to the local soil sites is a complex problem to the designers and the problem is more important for mega cities like Mumbai in India, where huge population may get affected due to devastations of earthquake. In the present study, the effect of local soil sites in modifying ground response is studied by performing one dimensional equivalent-linear ground response analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites. Field borelog data of some typical sites in Mumbai city viz. Mangalwadi site, Walkeswar site, BJ Marg near Pandhari Chawl site are considered in this study. The ground responses are observed for range of input motions and the results are presented in terms of surface acceleration time history, ratio of shear stress to vertical effective stress versus time, acceleration response spectrum, Fourier amplitude ratio versus frequency etc. The typical amplifications of ground accelerations considering four strong ground motions with wide variation of low to high MHA, frequency contents and durations are obtained. Results show that MHA, bracketed duration, frequency content have significant effects on the amplification of seismic accelerations for typical 2001 Bhuj motion. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.50 for Mangalwadi site, 2.60 for Walkeswar site and 3.45 for BJ Marg site using 2001 Bhuj input motion. The response spectrum along various soil layers are obtained which will be useful for designers for earthquake resistant design of geotechnical structures in Mumbai for similar sites in the absence of site specific data.     

Dangerous ice phenomena on the lowland rivers of European Russia

The site amplification functions at 48 sites of NCR have been estimated in this study using the waveforms of locally recorded 23 earthquakes. Due to the absence of a suitable reference site in the region, the widely used horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique has been used for this purpose. The maps showing the spatial distribution of predominant frequencies and the site amplifications at different frequencies corresponding to the natural frequencies of the different-storey buildings have been presented. The predominant frequencies in general are found to be in the range 2.5–7.5 Hz with an average of 4.4 Hz for the region having older alluvium sediments and in the range 1.1–6.4 Hz with an average of 3.3 Hz for the region with the younger alluvium deposits. The average value of the site amplifications for the frequency band 3.0–10.0 Hz is in the range 2.0–5.3 for the sites with significant soil cover, while the spectral amplification corresponding to the predominant frequency varies from 2.5 to 7.5 at most of the sites. The spectral amplification level lies in the range 2.0–3.0 for the sites with less or no sediment cover. The spectral amplification levels presented for the different-storey buildings may be used for the mitigation of seismic hazard in the region. The estimated site amplification functions may be used in the simulation of the site-specific strong ground motions and therefore useful for the evaluation of seismic hazard of a region.     

Evaluation of local site effects on earthquake damages of Fatih Mosque

Fatih Mosque and its Kulliye (complex) are one of the most important historical monuments in Istanbul. Since it has been built between 1463 and 1470, Fatih Mosque had been subjected to nine strong earthquakes and suffered various degrees of structural damage at every case, including the latest August 17, 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake (M_w = 7.4, epicentral distance approximately 100 km). Recently, a project has been initiated first to study the possible causes of earthquake damage and then develop retrofitting and strengthening techniques to protect this invaluable monument from further damages in the future earthquakes. As part of this investigation, local site soil conditions had been determined and site behavior during earthquakes had been studied in detail. In this paper, the results of 1-D site response analysis, which included convolution and deconvolution analyses utilizing the strong ground motions recorded during the August 17, 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake are presented. The results of the analyses had demonstrated the considerable degree of site amplification, compatible with the recorded motions and the damage suffered. The expected site behavior during a probable future earthquake is also studied using a site specific simulated bedrock motion, and earthquake parameters to be used in dynamic structural analysis are estimated.     

Site Response as a Function of Near-Surface Geology in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

Site response measurements provide information on the amplification of ground motions generated by local conditions. Recent studies of large destructive earthquakes have shown that damage during the earthquakes are often caused by the amplification of seismic waves in near-surface sedimentary layers. The estimation of site response is therefore critical, in order to evaluate the true seismic hazard potential of a given area. We investigated local site amplifications in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ). Nine digital seismographs were deployed, temporarily, in an area of approximately 400 km2, in the westernmost part of the SISZ. Among the 90 events recorded, 15 were used in this study, including a magnitude 3.1 (ML) event and selected aftershocks, which occurred in the northern outskirts of the village Hveragerdi. Single Station Spectral Ratios (SSSR) of the recorded earthquakes revealed some of the effects of local site conditions. Spectral amplification factors of 2–5 on average, can be expected in the SIL area, depending on the sediment type and thickness. Higher site amplifications occur in the southern part of the study region, where the thickest sedimentary cover is found. Spectral amplification, related to topographical effects, is observed at the bedrock reference station, Bjarnastadir. Standard Spectral Ratios (SSR), with respect to the bedrock reference station, Bjarnastadir, were also calculated for some stations, in order to compare the two spectral ratio results. The two methods show a good correlation at some stations, whereas at others they vary considerably. The comparison between the earthquake and ambient noise data, on the other hand, gave better correlation when the SSSR method is used.     

Site-specific earthquake response study for hazard assessment in Kolkata city,India

The assessment of local site effects on seismic ground motions is of great importance in earthquake engineering practice. Several destructive earthquakes in the past have demonstrated that the amplification of ground motion and associated damage to structures due to local site conditions is a significant consideration in earthquake hazard analysis. A recent paper published in this journal highlights the hazard posed by earthquakes in the megacity of Kolkata in India due to its seismic and geological settings. The seismic hazard assessment study speculates that the deep alluvial deposit in the city may increase the seismic hazard probably due to the amplification of the seismic energies. This paper focuses on the seismic response studies of the various soil strata (i.e. for local subsurface conditions) obtained from various construction sites in the city for predicted earthquake. It is very well recognized that site response studies (a part of seismic microhazard zonation for urban areas) are the first step towards performance-based foundation design or seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. One of the problems for carrying out site-specific study in Kolkata is the lack of recorded strong motion data in the city. Hence, this paper outlines a methodology to carry out site-specific study, where no strong motion data or seismic data are available. The methodology uses wavelet-based spectrum compatibility approach to generate synthetic earthquake motions and equivalent linear method for seismic site response analysis. The Mega City of Kolkata has been considered to explain the methodology. Seismic hazard zonation map by the Bureau of Indian Standards classifies the City of Kolkata as moderate seismic zone (Zone III) with a zone factor 0.16. On the other hand, GSHAP(Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map which is based on 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years specifies a maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 1.6 m/s² (0.163 g) for this region. In the present study, the seismic response has been carried out based on GSHAP. The results of the analysis indicate the amplification of ground motion in the range of 4.46–4.82 with the fundamental period ranging from 0.81 to 1.17 s. Furthermore, the maximum spectral accelerations vary in the range of 0.78–0.95 g.     

A technical note on seismic microzonation in the central United States

Microzonation is an effort to evaluate and map potential hazards found in an area, urban area in particular, that could be induced by strong ground shaking during an earthquake. These hazards include: ground motion amplification, liquefaction, and slope failure. The microzonation maps, depicting ground-motion amplification, liquefaction, and landslide potentials, can be produced if the ground motion on bedrock (input) and the site conditions are known. These maps, in combination with ground-motion hazard maps (on bedrock), can be used to develop a variety of hazard mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use planning. However, these maps have certain limitations that result from the nature of regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. These microzonations show that when strong ground shaking occurs, damage is more likely to occur, or be more severe, in the higher hazard areas. The zones shown on the hazard maps should not serve as a substitute for site-specific evaluations.     

Comparative study on the equivalent linear and the fully nonlinear site response analysis approaches

Seismic site effect has been a major issue in the field of earthquake engineering due to the large local amplification of the seismic motion. This paper presents the importance of an appropriate soil behavior model to simulate earthquake site response and gives an overview of the field of site response analysis. Some of the well-known site response analysis methods are discussed. The objective of this paper is to investigate the influences of nonlinearity on the site response analysis by means of a more precise numerical model. In this respect, site responses of four different types of one-layered soil deposit, based on various shear wave velocities with the assumption of linear and rigid base bedrock, were analyzed by using the equivalent linear and fully nonlinear approaches. Nonlinear analyses?? results were compared with those of the linear method, and both of the similarities and differences are discussed. It is concluded that in the case of nonlinearity of soil under strong ground motions, 1-D equivalent linear modeling overestimates the amplification patterns in terms of absolute amplification level, and cannot correctly account for resonant frequencies and hysteric soil behavior. Therefore, more practical and appropriate numerical techniques for ground response analysis should be surveyed.     

Numerical evidence of site effects contributing to triggering the Las Colinas landslide during the 2001 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> = 7.7 El Salvador earthquake

The Las Colinas landslide, which was triggered by the 13 January 2001, M_w?=?7.7 El Salvador earthquake, was highly destructive. The local site is composed of pyroclastic flows, brown cinders, soft pyroclastic fall deposits and a thin palaeosol and is characterised by steep slopes. The extremely high ground motions recorded near the landslide location are assumed to be both produced by site effects and responsible for the landslide. To characterise the ground motion amplifications due to site effects in terms of the variation in geometrical and geological settings, parametric studies were conducted with a linear elastic slope model, which was vertically subjected to the scattering SV wave of the Gabor wavelet. The results show that a maximum amplification is obtained when the model slope angle is approximately 30° (similar to the actual slope angle), and the maximum amplification is located approximately 20 m behind the crest, where the actual movement was initiated. Additionally, a slope with a height of approximately 160 m enhances ground motion amplification. The subsurface geology is found to induce a greater effect on amplification than that of the slope topography. In particular, a soft pyroclastic fall deposit is observed to contribute most of the ground motion amplification. According to the numerical results, it can be concluded that the local site conditions induced extremely high ground motions that then contributed to the slope movement. Although the thin, buried layer of palaeosol did not cause any significant amplification, its weak cohesion enhanced movement.     

Seismic hazard and site-specific ground motion for typical ports of Gujarat

Economic importance of major ports is well known, and if ports are located in seismically active regions, then site-specific seismic hazard studies are essential to mitigate the seismic risk of the ports. Seismic design of port sites and related structures can be accomplished in three steps that include assessment of regional seismicity, geotechnical hazards, and soil structure interaction analysis. In the present study, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed to identify the seismic hazard associated with four typical port sites of Gujarat state (bounded by 20°–25.5°N and 68°–75°E) of India viz. Kandla, Mundra, Hazira, and Dahej ports. The primary aim of the study is to develop consistent seismic ground motion for the structures within the four port sites for different three levels of ground shaking, i.e., operating level earthquake (72 years return period), contingency level earthquake (CLE) (475 year return period), and maximum considered earthquake (2,475 year return period). The geotechnical characterization for each port site is carried out using available geotechnical data. Shear wave velocities of the soil profile are estimated from SPT blow counts using various empirical formulae. Seismicity of the Gujarat region is modeled through delineating the 40 fault sources based on the seismotectonic setting. The Gujarat state is divided into three regions, i.e., Kachchh, Saurashtra, and Mainland Gujarat, and regional recurrence relations are assigned in the form of Gutenberg-Richter parameters in order to calculate seismic hazard associated with each port site. The horizontal component of ground acceleration for three levels of ground shaking is estimated by using different ground motion attenuation relations (GMAR) including one country-specific GMAR for Peninsular India. Uncertainty in seismic hazard computations is handled by using logic tree approach to develop uniform hazard spectra for 5% damping which are consistent with the specified three levels of ground shaking. Using recorded acceleration time history of Bhuj 2001 earthquake as the input time motion, synthetic time histories are generated to match the developed designed response spectra to study site-specific responses of port sites during different levels of ground shaking. It is observed that the Mundra and Kandla port sites are most vulnerable sites for seismic hazard as estimated CLE ground motion is in order of 0.79 and 0.48 g for Mundra and Kandla port sites, respectively. Hazira and Dahej port sites have comparatively less hazard with estimated CLE ground motion of 0.17 and 0.11 g, respectively. The ground amplification factor is observed at all sites which ranges from 1.3 to 2.0 for the frequency range of 1.0–2.7 Hz. The obtained spectral accelerations for the three levels of ground motions and obtained transfer functions for each port sites are compared with provisions made in Indian seismic code IS:1893-Part 1 (2002). The outcome of present study is recommended for further performance-based design to evaluate the seismic response of the port structures with respect to various performance levels.     

Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects

Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion parameters. Therefore, a comprehensive study is carried out to assess the seismic hazard of Chennai city based on a deterministic approach. The seismicity and seismotectonic details within a 100 km radius of the study area have been considered. The one-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out for 38 representative sites by the equivalent linear method using the SHAKE91 program to estimate the ground motion parameters considering the local site effects. The shear wave velocity profile was inferred from the corrected blow counts and it was verified with the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) test performed for a representative site. The seismic hazard is represented in terms of characteristic site period and Spectral Acceleration Ratio (SAR) contours for the entire city. It is found that structures with low natural period undergo significant amplification mostly in the central and southern parts of Chennai city due to the presence of deep soil sites with clayey or sandy deposits and the remaining parts undergo marginal amplification.     

Seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site with detailed geotechnical,geophysical and site effect studies

This paper highlights the seismic microzonation carried out for a nuclear power plant site. Nuclear power plants are considered to be one of the most important and critical structures designed to withstand all natural disasters. Seismic microzonation is a process of demarcating a region into individual areas having different levels of various seismic hazards. This will help in identifying regions having high seismic hazard which is vital for engineering design and land-use planning. The main objective of this paper is to carry out the seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site situated in the east coast of South India, based on the spatial distribution of the hazard index value. The hazard index represents the consolidated effect of all major earthquake hazards and hazard influencing parameters. The present work will provide new directions for assessing the seismic hazards of new power plant sites in the country. Major seismic hazards considered for the evaluation of the hazard index are (1) intensity of ground shaking at bedrock, (2) site amplification, (3) liquefaction potential and (4) the predominant frequency of the earthquake motion at the surface. The intensity of ground shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) was estimated for the study area using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with logic tree methodology. The site characterization of the study area has been carried out using the multichannel analysis of surface waves test and available borehole data. One-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out at major locations within the study area for evaluating PHA and spectral accelerations at the ground surface. Based on the standard penetration test data, deterministic as well as probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis has been carried out for the entire study area. Finally, all the major earthquake hazards estimated above, and other significant parameters representing local geology were integrated using the analytic hierarchy process and hazard index map for the study area was prepared. Maps showing the spatial variation of seismic hazards (intensity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential and predominant frequency) and hazard index are presented in this work.     

脉冲地震动中竖向加速度对场地液化的影响

为研究近断层脉冲地震动中竖向加速度对砂土场地液化的影响,基于有限元平台OpenSees开发的边界面塑性本构模型,建立了动单剪单元试验模型和饱和砂土三维有限元模型。选取台湾Chi-Chi地震中10条具有速度脉冲特性的地震波,对比分析了水平双向脉冲波与三向脉冲波作用下土柱竖向位移、循环应力比、孔压比及等效循环周数的差异性,继而明确了脉冲地震动中竖向加速度对砂土液化的影响规律。研究表明,三向脉冲地震波中竖向加速度分量对场地永久位移值影响较小,但使永久位移的发展持时明显增大;土柱循环应力比受竖向地震动影响较小,因此分析脉冲地震动对场地剪切特性的影响时,可将三向脉冲地震动简化为水平双向地震动;考虑竖向地震动的三向脉冲地震波引起的孔压比变化幅度较大,孔压消散时间较长;三向脉冲地震波对应的等效循环周数较大,地震动发展持时长,可认为竖向加速度对场地液化有促进作用。     

Engineering-Seismological Analysis of Site Effects in the Area of Cologne

The study was implemented in the framework of the DFNK (Deutsches Forschungsnetz Naturkatastrophen – German Research Network Natural Disasters) project. The area around the city of Cologne was chosen as an object for assessment of seismic hazard and risk. A comprehensive geo-database was compiled for the area, which allows using a computational approach for analysis of site amplification functions and probable surface effects. Taking into account peculiarities of the local soil conditions, the analysis of site effects included both amplification of ground motions and liquefaction potential. These phenomena, having different nature, are interrelated and can considerably contribute to seismic hazard. This paper presents some results obtained on the base of computational analysis using geo-modeling.     

Soft sediments and damage pattern: a few case studies from large Indian earthquakes vis-a-vis seismic risk evaluation

India is prone to earthquake hazard; almost 65 % area falls in high to very high seismic zones, as per the seismic zoning map of the country. The Himalaya and the Indo-Gangetic plains are particularly vulnerable to high seismic hazard. Any major earthquake in Himalaya can cause severe destruction and multiple fatalities in urban centers located in the vicinity. Seismically induced ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction are the two main factors responsible for severe damage to the structures, especially, built on soft sedimentary environment. These are essentially governed by the size of earthquake, epicentral distance and geology of the area. Besides, lithology of the strata, i.e., sediment type, grain size and their distribution, thickness, lateral discontinuity and ground water depth, play an important role in determining the nature and degree of destruction. There has been significant advancement in our understanding and assessment of these two phenomena. However, data from past earthquakes provide valuable information which help in better estimation of ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction for evaluation of seismic risk in future and planning the mitigation strategies. In this paper, we present the case studies of past three large Indian earthquakes, i.e., 1803 Uttaranchal earthquake (Mw 7.5); 1934 Bihar–Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.1) and 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7) and discuss the role of soft sediments particularly, alluvial deposits in relation to the damage pattern due to amplified ground motions and soil liquefaction induced by the events. The results presented in the paper are mainly focused around the sites located on the river banks and experienced major destruction during these events. It is observed that the soft sedimentary sites located even far from earthquake epicenter, with low water saturation, experienced high ground motion amplification; while the sites with high saturation level have undergone soil liquefaction. We also discuss the need of intensifying studies related to ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction in India as these are the important inputs for detailed seismic hazard estimation.     

GIS-based multi-criteria earthquake hazards evaluation using analytic hierarchy process for a nuclear power plant site,west Alexandria,Egypt

Nuclear power plants are designed to prevent the hazardous effects of the earthquakes and any external events to keep the safety of the plant. Ninety-one shallow seismic refraction profiles were performed to determine shear wave velocity of the engineering layers at the site of El Dabaa area that is situated to the northern coastline of Egypt for seismic hazard microzonation evaluation according to hazard index values. A microzonation is a procedure of delineating an area into individual zones having different ranks of numerous seismic hazards. This will aid in classifying areas of high seismic risk which is vigorous for industrial design of nuclear structures. The site response analysis requires the characterization of subsurface materials considering local subsurface profiles of the site. Site classification of the area under investigation was undertaken using P- and S-waves and available borehole data. The studied nuclear power plant site has been characterized as per NEHRP site classification using an average velocity of transverse wave (V _s ³⁰ ) of depth 30 m which acquired from seismic survey. This site was categorized into two site classes: the major one is “site class B,” and the minor one is “site class A.” The attenuation coefficient, the damping ratio and the liquefaction potential are geotechnical parameters which were derived from P- and S-waves, and have their major effects on the seismic hazard contribution. 1D ground response analysis was carried out in the places of seismic profiles inside the site for estimating the amount of ground quaking using peak ground acceleration (PGA), site amplification, predominant frequency and spectral accelerations on the surface of ground by the DEEPSOIL software package. Seven factors (criteria) deliberated to assess the earthquake hazard index map are: (1) the peak ground acceleration at the bedrock, (2) the amplification of the site, (3) the liquefaction potential, (4) the main frequency of the earthquake signal, (5) the average V _s of the first 30 m from the ground surface, (6) the depth to the groundwater and (7) the depth to the bedrock. These features were exemplified in normalized maps after uniting them to 0–1 scores according to some criteria by the minimum and maximum values as linear scaling points. Multi-criteria evaluation is an application of multi-criteria decision analysis theory that used for developing a seismic hazard index map for a nuclear power plant site at El Dabaa area in ArcGIS 10.1 software. Two models of decision making were used in this work for seismic hazard microzonation. The analytic hierarchy process model was applied to conduct the relative weights of the criteria by pairwise comparison using Expert Choice Software. An earthquake hazard index map was combined using Weighted Linear Combination model of the raster weighted overlay tool of ArcGIS 10.1. The results indicated that most of the study site of the nuclear power plant is a region of low to moderate hazard; its values are ranging between 0.2 and 0.4.     

Nonlinear Analysis of Local Site Effects on Seismic Ground Response in the Bam Earthquake

The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical (down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies.     

Local site effects in Latur, India: an empirical study based on the aftershocks of the Killari earthquake of September 29, 1993

The site amplification is estimated at five seismic stations of the Latur region using the horizontal to vertical spectral ratios of 33 aftershocks of the main Killari earthquake of September 29, 1993 (UTC). Spectral amplifications, ranging from a factor of 2–6 are found to vary with frequency at different places. Significant amplification is found at four sites within the Latur region, at Basavakalyan, Kasgi, Killari, and Mudgad Eakoji villages. Our results show a positive correlation between the site amplification and the damage pattern in area. The pattern and the nature of the site amplification estimated in the present study corroborates also with the analytical models and the borehole data indicating alternating layers of unconsolidated sediments and basaltic rocks.     

Assessment of the stability of H/V spectral ratios from ambient noise and comparison with earthquake data in the Cologne area (Germany)

Situated in an active tectonic region the highly industrialised Cologne area (Germany) suffers from moderate-sized earthquakes. Our contribution to the mitigation of earthquake risk includes a microzonation study using ambient seismic noise and earthquake recordings from two field campaigns. An analysis of these data using the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) as well as the classical spectral ratio (CSR) technique led to the following observations and conclusions: (1) The spatial variation in the thickness of the sedimentary cover is reliably retrieved using the fundamental resonance frequency estimated from the peak in the (H/V) ratio of ambient noise. (2) This fundamental resonance frequency is stable in time, but the amplitude of the peak (the amplification factor) is not. (3) The relative amplification variation of the H/V ratio in the area should therefore be checked systematically with repeated measurements before drawing conclusions about its significance. (4) The analysis of the H/V ratio of ambient noise provides the lower frequency bound, above which amplification may occur. (5) The shapes of the spectral ratios obtained by the different methods are generally in good agreement. However, the analysis of earthquake data shows that significant amplification of ground motion may also occur at frequencies higher than the fundamental one even when thick sediments are present.     

Application of Hidden Markov Model for avalanche danger simulations for road sectors in North-West Himalaya

Seismic hazard assessment is the key tool for rational planning, safety and design of infrastructures in seismically vulnerable regions. Gujarat is the only state in peninsular India with the maximum seismic hazard of large shallow earthquakes originating from intra-plate seismicity. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Gujarat is carried out in this paper. Three seismogenic sources, namely Kutch, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat, are considered, and seismicity parameters are estimated separately for each region taking into account the completeness of the available earthquake data. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the horizontal component and spectral acceleration at specific periods are considered as the intensity measures. Ground motion predictive equation chosen was reported to be based on simulated ground motions and verified against the strong motion records in the study region. Results are reported for the 17 major cities at the bedrock and also for the soil sites. Apart from hazard curves, 2475 and 475 years of return periods are considered for the PGA and uniform hazard spectra (UHS). The results are compared with the present recommendations of Indian Standards. Key observations include (1) Indian Standards underpredict PGA in the entire Gujarat when the soil sites are considered and in a few cities even at the bedrock; (2) amplification of PGA (or short period hazard) on account of soil sites should be included in the Indian Standard, which is currently absent; (3) shape of the UHS indicates that a separate amplification is required at the hyperbolic portion; and (4) ratio of 2475–475 years of PGA, which is considered 2.0 in Indian Standard, should be reduced to 1.5. Time-dependent recurrence model is also included in this paper and compared with conventional PSHA. General observations include that (1) hazard may increase significantly on account of time dependency; (2) this also influences the disaggregation and in turn the selection of ground motions; and (3) time since last earthquake significantly influences the extent of the effect of time dependency.