Dynamics of the East African climate

Results of studies on regional climatic trends and the factors controlling the regional climate have been discussed in this paper. Potential impact of impending climatic change on the natural resources and socio-economic activities has also been projected. Well-recognised systems which control the space-time variation of rainfall and temperature over the region include the space time characteristics of (i) Intertropical convergence Zone (ITCZ), (ii) Monsoonal wind systems (iii) Subtropical anticyclones (iv) Tropical cyclones (v) Jetstreams (vi) Easterly/Westerly wave perturbations (vii) Extra-tropical weather systems (viii) Quasi-biennial oscillations and ENSO events with their telelinks. No statistically significant trends have been observed in the inter-annual characteristics of rainfall at most of the locations. Apart from urbanization signals from the large urban centres, no statistically significant trends have been observed in the temporal temperature patterns over the region. Inter-annual variation of temperature is seen to be inversely associated with rainfall which in turn is also associated with ENSO signals. However, data of mountain glaciers has shown depletion of glaciers but, the river flow data has not shown any decreasing trend so far. The lake levels also reflect only the inter-annual variations attributable to wet and dry conditions.     

Adaptation of climate variability/extreme in arid environment of the Arabian peninsula by rainwater harvesting and management

Water management in Saudi Arabia is facing major challenges due to the limited water resources and increasing uncertainties caused by climate change. The rainfall and temperature records of the Saudi meteorological data for more than three decades were analyzed for policy suggestions in water sectors based on the changing rainfall patterns. The trends in the annual aridity and rain indices were also examined to define the changing climate conditions and for determining the dry months in different cities of the Kingdom. An increased annual and maximum rainfall was observed for six cities while a decreasing trend in both annual and maximum rainfall was observed for the same number of cities highlighting the variability of rainfall in the whole region. An increasing maximum rainfall with decreasing annual rainfall was observed for the rest of the cities signifying the more extreme rainfall evens and resulting floods of short durations. The changing rainfall trends were also observed for different months during 31 years of the recorded period in addition to the varying climate pattern for different cities within the same district. Finally, these preliminary assessments of any systematic changes in view of the increased rain intensities and extreme climate events are viewed to demonstrate the value rainwater harvesting and management as a local adaptation to the climate variability and extreme in the Kingdom.     

Hydrological responses to rainfall variability and dam construction: a case study of the upper Senegal River basin

The understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamic of river systems is essential for developing sustainable water resource management plan. For the Senegal River, this subject is very complex according to the context of (1) transboundary basin, (2) several contrasted climatic zones (Guinea, South Sudanian, North Sudanian and Sahelian) with high rainfall variability and (3) high human pressures (dam construction and water uses). From 1954 to 2000, 80% (mean value) of the Senegal River flows recorded downstream part of the basin are provided by three majors tributaries (Bafing, Bakoye and Faléme) located in the upstream part. Then, in our study, this upper Senegal River basin was chosen in order to investigate the hydrological responses to rainfall variability and dam construction. Two nonparametric statistical methods, Mann–Kendall and Hubert test, were used to detect the long-term changes in the time series of precipitation and water discharge (1954–2000) at the annual and seasonal scales. The continuous wavelet transform (Morlet Wavelet) was employed to characterize the different mode in the water discharge variability. Flow duration curve and cumulative curve methods were used to assess the impact of dams on the hydrological regime of the Senegal River. Results showed that the Senegal River flows have been changing under the influence of both rainfall variation and dam construction. The long-term evolution of water discharge depend on long-term rainfall variability: The wet periods of the 1950s and 1960s correspond to periods of higher river flows, while the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s led to unprecedented river flows deficits. The new period, since 1994, show a high inter-annual variability of rainfall and discharge without clear trend. At seasonal scale, the results showed also a strong relationship between rainfall and runoff (R ² > 0.8) resulting from alternating wet and dry seasons and rapid hydrological responses according to annual rainfall. Nevertheless, the observed flows during dry seasons highlighted the influence of water storage and restitution of infiltrated waters in soils and surficial formations during wet seasons. In the dry seasons, the water budget of the three upstream tributaries showed a water deficit at the downstream gauging station. This deficit was characterized by water loss to underlying aquifers and highlighted the influence of geological setting on water balance. However, in this context, water restitution during the dry season remained dependent on climatic zone and on the total annual rainfall volume during the previous wet season. The results have highlighted an impact of the Manantali dam previously obscured: The dam has no effect on the regulation of high river flows. That is what explains that since its construction in 1988, flooding of coastal cities, like Saint-louis, by seasonal river floods has not ceased. The flooding risk in coastal cities is not avoided, and the dams caused hyper-salinization of the Senegal lower estuary. The breach created in the coastal barrier of the Langue of Barbary in October 2003 promotes direct export of excess floodwater to the sea and reduces this risk of flooding in the delta area. But, this solution led to considerable loss of potential water resources, and the authors recommend a new water management plan with a global focus. However, this study shows the positives impacts of the two dams. They allow the availability of freshwater in order to support agricultural irrigation in the valley and delta zone, in particular during low flows periods.     

River runoff changes and recent climatic fluctuations in Bulgaria

Some estimates of global climatic change in the next 100 years suggest a general warming and rainfall decrease on the Balkan Peninsula. Our studies suggest that in Bulgaria climatic changes have already started. Because water resources to a great extent depend upon climate dynamics, this paper develops the linkage of climatic fluctuations and water resources using time-series analysis of climatic parameters and some river runoff characteristics and their correlation. One of the main conclusions, based on the results, is that climatic change manifested in the last 15 years has significantly influenced river runoff. A study of the recent prolonged drought and the influence of changes on water resources and human activity begins with characterizing climate-hydrology linkages. The results of this study point to several problems of regional and local importance.     

Influence of Environmental Variables and Fishing Pressure on Bivalve Fisheries in an Inshore Lagoon and Adjacent Nearshore Coastal Area

Climate changes affect marine ecosystems and the survival, growth, reproduction and distribution of species, including those targeted by commercial fisheries. The impact of climate change has been reported for many fish species, but studies focusing on the effects of climate on bivalve resources are lacking. In Portugal, the harvesting of bivalves is an old and artisanal activity, of special importance along the Algarve coast (South of Portugal). This study aims to evaluate the influence of climatic, environmental and fisheries factors on the landings of intertidal coastal lagoon and coastal bivalve species (subtidal nearshore species). The environmental and fisheries parameters considered to affect the landings of bivalves in the eastern Algarve were: fishing effort (number of fishing events), sea surface temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, upwelling index, wind magnitude and direction and river discharges. Analysis of time series data using min/max autocorrelation factor analysis and dynamic factor analysis showed that, for most species, fishing effort was positively related with landings per unit effort trends in the following year. Lagoon bivalve species (Cerastoderma edule and Ruditapes decussatus) responded to different environmental variables than the coastal bivalve species (Chamelea gallina, Pharus legumen, Donax spp. and Spisula solida). Upwelling index had a significant effect on the lagoon bivalves while the NAO index, wind magnitude and direction, and river discharges only affected the coastal species. This study highlighted the need to adapt fishing effort regimes, while considering the background effects of environmental variability, in order to improve fisheries management.     

Observed changes in extreme rain indices in semiarid and humid regions of Godavari basin,India: risks and opportunities

Natural Hazards - The present study examines the spatial and temporal changes in extreme rainfall events (EREs) across the Godavari river basin to develop adaptation strategies for vulnerable...     

Marine records of Holocene climatic variations

Holocene millennial climate variability is smaller than that of the last glaciation, due to the disappearance of large unstable ice sheets. Marine records show that the sea-surface temperature (SST) exhibited small variations, mainly in the high and low latitudes. They may be interpreted as a linear response to the mean annual insolation. Major changes in the hydrological cycle have been evidenced in the Asian and African monsoon area, resulting in enhanced precipitation and large river outflow in the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Niger. Enhanced rainfall over the Mediterranean Basin resulted in a weak circulation and sapropel formation below 800-m water depth in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Finally small changes in the thermohaline circulation and the warm North Atlantic Drift have been detected in the Nordic Seas. The Holocene climatic variability is therefore similar to that of the Quaternary, but with small amplitude, while continents experienced large rainfall variations. To cite this article: J.-C. Duplessy et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Micro-level perception to climate change and adaptation issues: A prelude to mainstreaming climate adaptation into developmental landscape in India

Climate change adds another dimension of challenges to the growth and sustainability of Indian agriculture. The growing exposure to livelihood shocks from climate variability/change and limited resource base of the rural community to adapt has reinforced the need to mainstream climate adaptation planning into developmental landscape. However, a better understanding of micro-level perceptions is imperative for effective and informed planning at the macro-level. In this paper, the grass-root level perspectives on climate change impacts and adaptation decisions were elicited at farm level in the Moga district of Punjab and Mahbubnagar district of Telangana, India. The farmers opined that the climatic variability impacts more than the long-term climate change. They observed change in the quantum, onset and distribution of rainfall, rise in minimum as well as maximum temperature levels, decline in crop yield and ground water depletion. The key socio-economic effects of climate change included decline in farm income, farm unemployment, rural migration and increased indebtedness among farmers. In order to cope with climate variability and change thereon, farmers resorted to adaptation strategies such as use of crop varieties of suitable duration, water conservation techniques, crop insurance and participation in non-farm activities and employment guarantee schemes. Farmers’ adaptation to changing climate was constrained by several technological, socio-economic and institutional barriers. These include limited knowledge on the costs–benefits of adaptation, lack of access to and knowledge of adaptation technologies, lack of financial resources and limited information on weather. Besides, lack of access to input markets, inadequate farm labour and smaller farm size were the other constraints. Further, on the basis of the grass-root elicitation a ‘Need-Based Adaptation’ planning incorporating farmers’ perceptions on climate change impacts, constraints in the adoption of adaptation strategies and plausible adaptation options were linked with the most suitable ongoing programmatic interventions of the Government of India. The study concluded that micro-level needs and constraints for various adaptation strategies and interventions should be an integral part of the programme development, implementation and evaluation in the entire developmental paradigm.     

Impact of Rainfall Variability on River Hydrology: A Case Study of Southern Western Ghats,India

The Western Ghats plays a pivotal role in determining the hydrological and hydroclimatic regime of Peninsular India. The mountainous catchments of the Ghats are the primary contributors of flow in the rivers that sustains the life and agricultural productivity in the area. Although many studies have been conducted in the past decades to understand long term trends in the meteorological and hydrological variables of major river basins, not much attention have been made to unfold the relationship existing among rainfall and river hydrology of natural drainages on either side of the Western Ghats which host one of the unique biodiversity hotspots across the world. Therefore, an attempt has been made in this paper to examine the short term (last three decades) changes in the rainfall pattern and its influence on the hydrological characteristics of some of the important rivers draining the southern Western Ghats as a case study. The short term, annual and seasonal trends in the rainfall, and its variability and discharge were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s estimator of slope. The study showed a decreasing trend in rainfall in the southwest monsoon while a reverse trend is noticed in northeast monsoon. Correspondingly, the discharge of the west and east flowing rivers also showed a declining trend in the southwest monsoon season. The runoff coefficient also followed the trends in the discharge. The runoff coefficient of the Periyar river showed a decreasing trend, whereas the Cauvery river exhibited an increasing trend. A high-resolution analysis of rainfall data revealed that the number of moderate rainfall events showed a decreasing trend throughout the southern Western Ghats, whereas the high intensity rainfall events showed an opposite trend. The decline in groundwater level in the areas which recorded an increase in high intensity rainfall events and decrease in moderate rainfall events showed that the groundwater recharge process is significantly affected by changes in the rainfall pattern of the area.     

Assessing hydro-morphological changes in Mediterranean stream using curvilinear grid modeling approach - climate change impacts

The objective of this work was the estimation of time-space hydraulic (water depth, flow velocity) and morphological (sediment transport and bank erosion) characteristics in the downstream part of a Mediterranean stream under current and future climatic conditions. The two-dimensional hydraulic model MIKE 21C was used, which has been developed specifically to simulate 2D flow and morphological changes in rivers. The model is based on an orthogonal curvilinear grid and comprises two parts: (a) the hydrodynamic part and (b) the morphological changes part. The curvilinear grid and the bathymetry file were generated using a very high-resolution DEM (1 m × 1 m). Time series discharge data from a hydrometric station introduced in the hydrodynamic part of the model. Regarding the morphological part of the model, field measurements of suspended sediment concentration and of bank erosion were used. The model was calibrated and verified using field data that were collected during high and low flow discharges. Model simulation was in good agreement with field observations as indicated by a variety of statistical measures. Next, for predicting the riverbank change, future meteorological data and river flow data for the next 10 years (2017–2027) were employed. These data series were created according to a lower and a higher emission climate change scenario. Based on the results, an increase in rainfall intensity may cause significant changes in river banks after 10 years (more than 5 m of soil loss in river meanders). Using the obtained simulation results, extreme hydrological events such as floods transporting large sediment loads and changes in river morphology can be monitored. The proposed methodology was applied to the downstream part of the Koiliaris River Basin in Crete, Greece.     

Exploring the relationship between local institutions in SAT India and adaptation to climate variability

This paper examines the relationship between local institutions and adaptation to climate variability in four semi-arid villages in India. Based on a qualitative survey, it draws attention to the constraints that farming households face, the role of institutions, and the implications for their capacities to adapt. Using an institutional framework, the study examines the role of local institutions in facilitating community adaptation to perceived climate variability. It was found that at the institutional and community level farmers rely on government schemes that provide social safety nets and the private sector such as moneylenders as sources of adaptation options regarding access to credit. Serious constraints emerged, however, in terms of adaptation to what may be a more challenging future. These constraints were further explored by means of grounded theory. The lack of collective feeling and action has hindered bargaining for better market prices and the development of alternate livelihood options. The need for better financial inclusion and access to more formal systems of finance is necessary to increase the overall adaptive capacity of households. During crisis situations or climatic shocks, the absence of these systems means the sale of household assets and resources especially among small and landless groups of farmers. Overall, rural households perceive that public, civic, and private institutions play a significant role in shielding them against the adverse effects of climate variability. The perceived importance of different institutions is, however, different across different categories of farmers, women, and labourers.     

Climate variability/change and attitude to adaptation technologies: a pilot study among selected rural farmers’ communities in Nigeria

Understanding climate variability and change is essential for designing adaptation policies and strategies to deal with the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector. This Paper aims at assessing climate variability/change, the perception of rural farmers on climate change and preferred  adaptation strategies among the farmers in some selected farming communities in Nigeria. The study thus used both meteorology data and social survey, to examine variability/change in climate and factors determining the adaptation techniques adopts by rural farmers. The results show a relatively uniform temperatures and some seasonal variations in recent years (diurnal range of temperature is about 10 °C) but the rainfall shows much more seasonal variations. The rainfall has relatively undeviating trend from 1981 to 1996 but the trend appears to be upwards from the year 1997 to 2010. About 72.8% participants responded in the affirmative that climate is changing but there appears to be a significant relationship between the length of farming experiences and farmers’ perceptions of climate change adaptation techniques. Water-related (about 53%) and nutrient related (about 52%) technologies appear to have a high preference among the farmers. The major driver that determines farmers’ preference for climate change adaptation techniques is their incomes and experiences.     

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.     

Disastrous sediment discharge due to typhoon-induced heavy rainfall over fossil periglacial catchments in western Tokachi,Hokkaido, northern Japan

In August 2016, Typhoon 1610 (Lionrock) caused heavy rainfall in Hokkaido, which led to the discharge of a large volume of sediment and water from catchments on the eastern slope of the northern Hidaka Range. The eight catchments examined in this study are characterized by granitic lithology and late Pleistocene periglacial landforms with weakly cohesive, low-resistance periglacial debris thickly covering the weathered bedrocks. This characteristic of the landscape presumably provided a transport-limited condition where some debris flows were initiated by shallow landslides. As they moved, the debris flows grew larger through mobilization and erosion of sediment in channel beds and sidewalls. This sediment mobilization and erosion continued for an extensive distance along the course of the river. Morphological changes induced by channel aggradation and bank erosion were considerable and distinctive from upstream to downstream. Granitic periglacial sediments are amply present on the mountain slopes, river channels, and river banks in the area, likely due to the rarity of intensive rainfall events. These distinctive features of fossil periglacial catchments are important for disaster prevention and catchment-scale sediment management in sub-boreal areas, particularly in the context of climate change, which may generate more frequent and intensive rainfall events.     

Long-term changes in the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon over western India

This paper presents results of a study of long term trends in the characteristics of the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon rainfall over western India during the last five decades in relation to global warming induced regional climate change. In contrast to recent climate change analyses and projections, no significant long-term trends have been observed in this study. Slow decadal scale variations observed are analysed in relation to Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Daily variations in rainfall anomaly show opposite characteristics during negative and positive phases of PDO. The above-normal rainfall (>25%) is found during the starting phase of monsoon in negative PDO. Over the last decade, i.e., during 2000–2007, the seasonal rainfall amount, as well as seasonal span of southwest monsoon over western India is indicative of a gradual increase.     

Water regulation and sustainability 1997-2001: Adoption or adaptation?

In 1997 there was a change in government in the UK with the Labour Party coming into power for the first time since 1979. Among the commitments made was the intention to put sustainability at the heart of government and decision-making. There was also a commitment to introduce reforms of the utility sector. In part this was a response to public concern over the conduct and behaviour of the privatised utilities, made more pertinent in the case of the water sector by the impact of several seasons of below average rainfall and high levels of leakage. In light of this the need for change took on a particular urgency. This paper examines some of the developments in water regulation under the 1997-2001 Labour administration. Through two sets of events; the 1997 Water Summit and the 1997-1999 Price Review the paper examines the discursive processes through which sustainability has been incorporated into water regulation. It discusses the changes in the practices of regulation and whether these could be characterised as the adoption of sustainability by the water sector or a strategy of adaptation to accommodate sustainability within an existing economic paradigm.     

Temporal and spatial variations in water flow and sediment load in Narmada River Basin, India: natural and man-made factors

The Narmada River flows through the Deccan volcanics and transports water and sediments to the adjacent Arabian Sea. In a first-ever attempt, spatial and temporal (annual, seasonal, monthly and daily) variations in water discharge and sediment loads of Narmada River and its tributaries and the probable causes for these variations are discussed. The study has been carried out with data from twenty-two years of daily water discharge at nineteen locations and sediment concentrations data at fourteen locations in the entire Narmada River Basin. Water flow in the river is a major factor influencing sediment loads in the river. The monsoon season, which accounts for 85 to 95% of total annual rainfall in the basin, is the main source of water flow in the river. Almost 85 to 98% of annual sediment loads in the river are transported during the monsoon season (June to November). The average annual sediment flux to the Arabian Sea at Garudeshwar (farthest downstream location) is 34.29×10⁶ t year⁻¹ with a water discharge of 23.57 km³ year⁻¹. These numbers are the latest and revised estimates for Narmada River. Water flow in the river is influenced by rainfall, catchment area and groundwater inputs, whereas rainfall intensity, geology/soil characteristics of the catchment area and presence of reservoirs/dams play a major role in sediment discharge. The largest dam in the basin, namely Sardar Sarovar Dam, traps almost 60–80% of sediments carried by the river before it reaches the Arabian Sea.     

Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA

To investigate consequences of climate extreme and variability on agriculture and regional water resource, twenty-seven climatic indices of temperature and precipitation over Idaho, USA, were computed. Precipitation, mean temperature and maximum temperature, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales were used to identify spatial and temporal distribution of climatic extreme and variability as well as drought frequency and magnitude. Seven oceanic indices were also used to detect teleconnections between climatic indices and regional droughts. The analyses were conducted for 56 meteorological stations, during 1962?C2008, characterized by a long-term and high-quality data set. The result indicates that decreasing trends and increasing trends are identified for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Consequently, it appears that frost and ice days dwindle as growing season (May?CAugust) length, tropical nights and summer days increase. Given current climate conditions, the results also imply that these trends will continue in the future possibly driven by uncertain climate variability. We anticipate that these indices explained by teleconnections will improve drought-forecasting capability in this region.     

Climate change impacts on water demand and availability using CMIP5 models in the Jaguaribe basin,semi-arid Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%).