青藏高原对华北地区地震活动影响的统计学证据

基于中国各构造区1900年以来的本尼奥夫应变累积释放序列,采用协整分析和因果关系检验方法研究表明,青藏高原与华北地区地震活动的应变释放存在着长期均衡关系;在某种程度上,青藏高原地区地震应变释放是华北地区应变释放发生变化的原因;青藏高原对华北地区地震应变释放的影响存在约20多年的滞后效应.本文结果对两个构造单元的地球动力学研究提供了统计学证据.     

中国大陆地震活动时空分布多重分形特征

利用多重分形分析方法,考察了中国大陆各构造区地震活动广义应变释放时间和空间分布的多重分形特征。结果表明,中国大陆各构造区地震活动广义应变释放时空分布的多重分形特征差别明显。     

中国大陆地区强震活动特征统计

从时空展布和应变积累释放角度,对中国大陆及大陆西部和东部地区地震活动进行分析,认为青藏高原地震区是中国大陆强震活动主体区域,在目前空间格局不发生改变的情况下,巴颜喀拉地块区及边界、川滇地区是强震活动主要场所的可能性较大;其次为新疆地震区,其强震主体区域依次为南天山与西昆仑交汇区、阿尔泰地区、南北天山地区;中国大陆东部目前可能处于第2轮回后剩余释放阶段或可能已进入第3个轮回的应变积累阶段,总体应变积累水平较低,发生强地震的可能性较小,若进入活跃期,华北地震区应是M≥6.0地震活动的主体区域。     

东北和邻区地震活动的相关性

本文研究了:朝鲜、日本北海道、华北、东北等地区地震活动的相关性;东北和新疆地区地震活动的相关性;华北和阿留申群岛地震活动的相关性;东北地震活动的某些特点.结果表明:东北地震活动与新疆地震活动密切相关;地震活动在时间上按朝鲜·华北·日本北海道·东北的顺序活动:华北和阿留申群岛地震有交替活动的特征.文中还计论了东北、华北的地震趋势.     

投影寻踪自回归模型和应变积累释放模型在新疆地震趋势预测中的应用

本研究以5年为时间窗,1年为滑动步长构建自变量序列,建立了新疆各研究区的投影寻踪自回归中长期地震预测模型;同时应用应变积累释放模型探讨了各区不同时段应变积累与释放特征,依据各区的应变积累水平及其地震活动分期特征判定未来地震趋势。综合分析两个模型的地震趋势预测意见,给出了新疆各研究区未来5年(2006-2010年)的地震危险性判定意见。     

近年来华北南部地区地震活动增强的力学背景分析

依据青藏高原东北缘与秦岭大地构造格局相关联的地质构造背景,青藏高原物质东流和“稳定”块体的阻挡是华北南部地区构造活动的主要动力来源之一的基本认识,分析了青藏高原东北缘4次8级地震前华北南部地区地震活动的基本特征。8级地震震中区附近地震活动异常变化不明显,但华北南部地区地震异常活跃,其异常活跃过程与青藏高原东北缘强震的孕育与发生存在明显的相关性．具有一定的异地震情指示意义。     

青藏高原东南缘活动断裂的地震应变能释放系统研究

本文以青藏高原东南缘为研究区域,利用G-R震级能量经验公式和Benioff地震应变能释放曲线,对该区域内1500a以来的历史地震应变能释放进行了系统研究。文中给出了各断裂带和断块区的地震应变能释放周期表及相应的地震活动性分析。分析发现研究区域地震应变能的释放具有东强西弱,南强北弱的特征,整体上各断层断块区的历史地震应变能释放符合准周期模式,某些断层和断块区上的地震周期具有某种程度的同步现象。青藏高原东南缘现今处于大释放期,地震的活动性不能忽视。对局部地区的研究结果显示,安宁河-则木河断裂带、小江断裂带的地震活动性较强,对于这些地区应重点跟踪研究。     

广义地震应变能释放的多重分形特征

利用基于小波变换的多重分形谱估计方法，研究了以中国东西部地区为代表的板内地震活动和以新西兰、日本为代表的板缘地震活动广义应变能释放的多重分形特征．结果表明，中国东、西部地震活动广义应变能释放的多重分形特征有明显差别，新西兰与日本的地震活动广义应变能释放的多重分形特征也有明显不同；地震活动的多重分形特征与构造的复杂程度有关．      

基于地壳形变的强地震中长期预测的针对性探讨

地震是地壳运动过程中能量长期积累和突然释放的结果。最大限度地利用大范围、长时间尺度的地壳形变观测资料,从中获取地壳运动变形的长期背景场信息,结合地质构造和强震活动性,研究活动构造区域长时间尺度的应力应变积累分布背景及其与强震活动的关系,判断高应变积累异常区,对强震中长期预测十分重要。我国地震预报专家梅世蓉先生等认为,     

龙门山及邻区区域活动构造与汶川8.0级地震

龙门山活动构造带位于青藏高原断块区巴颜喀喇断块与华南断块区四川断块之间,是青藏高原断块区东部边界构造带中段的一条北东向挤压推覆构造带,它南接川滇南北向构造带,北为岷山-西海固南北向构造带。与后二者历史上均发生过多次7~8级地震不同,龙门山构造带历史地震活动强度却相对较低,只发生过6~612级地震,汶川8.0级地震即发生在青藏高原断块区东部边界构造带中段这一历史地震活动水平相对较低的构造段。     

PUBLICATIONS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES

Abstract

Most commonly used biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and dissolved oxygen (DO) models have been tested for their applicability in the River Kali, which is one of the most polluted rivers in India. A total of 732 field data sets were generated during field survey from March 1999 to February 2000. The modelling of BOD and DO in the River Kali involves derivation and solution of the governing equations that describe concentration change with time and space brought on by advective, decay, settling and loading functions. However, due to continuous discharges (e.g. from wastewater treatment plants) and steady-state flow conditions in the River Kali, the dispersion effects are found to be insignificant. In the analysis, the model parameters used in BOD-DO models were optimized using the Newton-Raphson technique and the performance of different models was evaluated using correlation statistics (r ²) and error estimation, viz. standard error (SE) and mean multiplicative error (MME). The results indicate that the BOD-DO models developed after Camp (1963) yielded the best agreement with the observed values as compared with several other approaches.     

利用TEM测深校正MT静态偏移的技术问题

由近地表电性不均匀体引起的静态偏移严重地影响了MT资料解释的质量。研究表明 ,利用时间域电磁测深 (TEM )可以有效地解决这个问题。重点讨论了利用TEM做MT静改时需要解决的 3个技术问题 ,并以实例说明了应用效果     

利用地面激光与地质雷达综合探测活断层浅层三维结构——以川西理塘毛垭坝盆地北缘正断层为例

快速获取活断层的高精度微地貌形态和对应的浅层三维结构是揭示活断层浅地表形迹与活动特征的关键。文中综合利用地面三维激光扫描仪和地质雷达技术,以川西理塘地区毛垭坝盆地北缘主边界断裂禾尼段的正断层崖为研究对象,获取了该处正断层错动2期最新地貌面的精确地表垂直位移量和浅层二维地质雷达图像,并初步建立了基于地面三维激光与地质雷达的活断层微地貌精细化三维测量方法,构建了断层崖微地貌的精细三维模型和浅表三维图像,揭示了正断层崖处发育的伸展地堑结构,同时初步实现了断层微地貌地表地下三维数据的一体化融合显示及相互解译。应用结果表明,该方法可以同时快速、高效、无损地获取大范围内的活断层微地貌及浅层结构的多层次、多视觉的空间数据,极大地提高了对活动断层微地貌形态与浅层结构进行快速调查与研究的精度和认识水平,也为更全面地认识和理解活断层的空间分布与变形特征、活动习性和多期古地震遗迹等提供重要的数据和方法支持。因此,对该方法的继续探索和完善,将显著提升和扩展其在活断层定量化和精细化研究中的实用性及应用前景。     

双侧向型复电阻率测井响应的数值模拟

在二维地层模型条件下,应用有限元方法模拟了双侧向模式的复电阻率测井仪器在不同频率下的响应,结果表明当频率很低时,复电阻率测井的响应接近双侧向测井的响应;随着频率的提高,复电阻率测井的响应幅度降低。当地层具有一定的频散效应时,可以利用不同频率下的复电阻率测井响应直观地区分油水层     

THE DELINEATION OF THREE-DIMENSIONAL SHALLOW GEOMETRY OF ACTIVE FAULT BASED ON TLS AND GPR: A CASE STUDY OF AN NORMAL FAULT ON THE NORTH MARGIN OF MAOYABA BASIN IN LITANG,WESTERN SICHUAN PROVINCE

It is crucial to reveal the surface traces and activity of active faults by obtaining high-precision microtopography and three-dimensional shallow geometry. However, limited by the traditional geological investigation methods in the field and geological condition factors, the measurement method on microtopography and shallow geometry of active fault is badly insufficient. In this study, the TLS and GPR are firstly used comprehensively to delineate the microtopography and shallow geometry of the normal fault scarp on the north margin of Maoyaba Basin in Litang. Firstly, the vertical displacements of two landforms produced by the latest two periods of normal faulting and the two-dimensional GPR profiles are obtained separately. Secondly, the three-dimensional measurement method of active fault based on TLS and GPR is preliminarily established. On this basis, three-dimensional model of fault scarp and three-dimensional images of subsurface geometry are also obtained. These data all reveal a graben structure at normal fault scarps. Thirdly, the fusion and interpretation of three-dimensional data from the surface and subsurface are realized. The study results show:1)the vertical displacements of the T₁ and T₂ terraces by the normal fault movement is 1.4m and 5.7m, the GPR profile shows a typical fault structure and indicates the existence of small graben structure with a maximum width of about 40m in the shallow layer, which further proves that it is a normal fault. 2)the shallow geometry of the normal fault scarp can be more graphically displayed by the three-dimensional radar images, and it also makes the geometry structure of the fault more comprehensive. The precise location and strike of faults F₁ and F₂ on the horizontal surface are also determined in the three-dimensional radar images, which further proves the existence of small graben structure, indicating the extensional deformation characteristics in the subsurface of the fault scarps. Furthermore, the distribution of small graben structure on the surface and subsurface is defined more precisely. 3)the integrated display of microgeomorphology and shallow geometry of normal fault scarp is realized based on the three-dimensional point cloud and GPR data. The fusion of the point cloud and GPR data has obvious advantages, for the spatial structure, morphological and spectral features from the point cloud can improve the recognition and interpretation accuracy of GPR images. The interpreted results of the GPR profiles could minimize the transformation of the surface topography by the external environment at the most extent, restore the original geomorphology, relocate the position and trend of faults on the surface and constrain the width of deformation zones under the surface, the geological structure, and the fault dislocation, etc. In a word, the TLS and GPR can quickly and efficiently provide the spatial data with multi-level and multi-visual for non-destructive inspection of the microgeomorphology and shallow structure for the active fault in a wide range, and for the detection of active fault in the complex geological environments, and it is helpful to improve the accuracy and understanding of the investigation and research on microtopography and shallow geometry of active faults. What's more, it also offers important data and method for more comprehensive identification and understanding of the distribution, deformation features, the behaviors of active faults and multi-period paleoseismicity. Therefore, to continuously explore and improve this method will significantly enhance and expand the practicability and application prospects of the method in the quantitative and elaborate studies of active faults.     

长江流域汛期降水集中程度和洪涝关系研究

用新定义的降水集中度和集中期分别讨论了我国长江流域不同地段汛期降水在时间和空间上的分布特征和变化规律. 结果表明在对长江流域旱涝灾害研究方面,降水集中度和集中期能够定量地表征降水量在时空场上的非均匀性,提取出最大降水重心对应的时段,因此可以比较理想地分析旱涝灾害发生的基本特征及其形成机制. 并且在长江中下游地区的降水集中度与东亚副热带季风之间存在着比较密切的联系.     

无线远程电源控制系统的研制

本文介绍了一种基于GSM（全球移动通信系统）网络SMS（短信业务）的无线远程电源控制系统的原理及设计实现。该系统由一个无线GSM模块（WAVECOM公司的Q2403模块）和一个单片机（AT89S52）为核心的监控单元组成,监控单元利用AT指令通过串口和GSM模块进行通信,借助GSM模块Q2403使用户能够通过短信便捷地对相关设备进行断电、上电和重启等控制。     

DRY-SEASON VARIABILITY IN SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATIONS IN THE SOUTH PASSAGE OF THE CHANGJIANG ESTUARY

This paper reports the results of continuous monitoring of turbidity, water depth, salinity (using an Optical Backscatter Sensor (OBS)), and current velocity (using a Current meter (SLC9-2)) in the South Passage of the Changjiang Estuary over a spring–neap period in February 2003 (dry season). The turbidity measured via OBS was closely correlated with the suspended sediment concentration (SSC), which was highly variable. Over the study period, the SSC in the middle layer ranged from 110 to 1400 mg/l. The minimum SSC occurred during a late ebb tide, and the maximum SSC occurred during a late flood tide. On average, the SSC was 1.5 times higher during flood tide than during ebb tide. Vertically within the water column, SSC increased downward, with the ratio of SSC measured near the bed to that measured at the surface ranging from 1.90 to 18.3. The temporal variability in SSC is jointly governed by tides and wind-induced waves, whereas the vertical variability in SSC is attributed to the effect of gravity and vertical water circulation.     

从雷电脉冲谱推算出低电离层等效结构

从低电离层-地面波导中电波传播的波导模理论出发,分析了雷电产生的电磁脉冲（LEP）谱随距离变化与低电离层结构之间关系。利用LEP谱中干扰最小值时的频率与指数电离层模式参量的关系得出低电离层等效模拟参量。从我们观测出的LEP数据得出指数电离层等效参量是:在白天β=0.3km^-1,h_i=70km;在夜间β=0.5km^-1,h_i=88km。并指出使用这种方法可以观测出低电离层在时间上和地理位置上的变化。     

大别-苏鲁超高压变质带P-T-t轨迹的动力学模拟

综合现有的地质、地球化学资料以及同位素年龄等研究成果，同时结合新西兰南岛北端陆壳俯冲的最新发现，提出了超高压变质岩的形成四阶段演化模式：板片俯冲形成增生楔、板片俯冲驱动角落流、板片拆离浮力抬升至Moho深度和后期上地壳伸展阶段.以此为定量模拟的出发点，利用二维有限元对大别-苏鲁超高压变质带的形成演化进行了动力学和热演化模拟，追踪超高压变质岩形成演化过程中的质点路径以及对应的P-T-t轨迹.计算的P-T-t轨迹及其空间分布特征均能与实测结果较好吻合.