The July 15, 2009 Fiordland,New Zealand Tsunami: Real-Time Assessment

On 15 July 2009, a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred off the New Zealand coast, which by serendipitous coincidence occurred while the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk, Russia. The earthquake generated a tsunami that propagated across the Tasman Sea and was detected in New Zealand, Australia and as far away as the US West coast. Small boats close to the epicenter were placed in jeopardy, but no significant damage was observed despite a measured run-up height of 2.3 m in one of the Sounds in close proximity to the source (Wilson in GNS Science Report 46:62 2009). Peak-to-trough tsunami heights of 55 cm were measured at Southport, Tasmania and a height of 1 m was measured in Jackson Bay, New Zealand. The International Tsunami Symposium provided an ideal venue for illustration of the value of immediate real-time assessment and provided an opportunity to further validate the real time forecasting capabilities with the scientific community in attendance. A number of agencies with responsibility for tsunami forecast and/or warning, such as the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science in New Zealand, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the European Commission Joint Research Centre were all represented at the meeting and were able to demonstrate the use of state of the art numerical models to assess the tsunami potential and provide warning as appropriate.     

Algorithmic recognition of anomalous time intervals in sea-level observations

The problem of the algorithmic recognition of anomalous time intervals in the time series of the sea-level observations conducted by the Russian Tsunami Warning Survey (RTWS) is considered. The normal and anomalous sea-level observations are described. The polyharmonic models describing the sea-level fluctuations on the short time intervals are constructed, and sea-level forecasting based on these models is suggested. The algorithm for the recognition of anomalous time intervals is developed and its work is tested on the real RTWS data.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas: Toward a Tsunami warning center in Turkey

Tsunami mitigation, preparedness and early warning initiatives have begun at the global scale only after the tragic event of Sumatra in 2004. Turkey, as a country with a history of devastating earthquakes, has been also affected by tsunamis in its past. In this paper we present the Tsunami Hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas (Aegean, Marmara and Black Sea) by providing detailed information on historically and instrumentally recorded significant tsunamigenic events surrounding Turkey, aiming to a better understanding of the Tsunami threat to the Turkish coasts. In addition to the review of the Tsunami hazard, we have studied a possible Tsunami source area between Rhodes and SW of Turkey using Tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE-two nested domains. We have computed a maximum positive amplitude of 1.13 m and maximum negative amplitude of −0.5 m at the Tsunami source by this study. The distribution of maximum positive amplitudes of the water surface elevations in the selected Tsunami forecast area and time histories of water level fluctuations near selected locations (Marmaris, Dalaman, Fethiye and Kas towns) indicate that the maximum positive amplitude near the coast in the selected forecast area exceeds 3.5 m. The arrival time of maximum wave to Marmaris, Dalaman, is 10 min, while that of Fethiye and Kas towns is 15–20 min. The maximum positive amplitudes near the shallow region of around 10 m depth are 3 m (Marmaris), 1 m (Dalaman), 2 m (Fethiye) and 1 m (Kas). Maximum positive amplitudes of water elevations in the duration of 4 h simulation of the Santorini-Minoan Tsunami in around 1600 BC in the Aegean Sea are also calculated based on a simulation performed using 900 m grid resolution of Aegean sea bathymetry with a 300 m collapse of 10 km diameter of Thera (Santorini) caldera. We have also presented the results of the Tsunami modeling and simulation for Marmara Sea obtained from a previous study. Last part of this paper provides information on the establishment of a Tsunami Warning Center by KOERI, which is expected to act also as a regional center under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission – Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative, emphasizing on the challenges together with the future work needed to be accomplished.     

国际海啸预警系统(ITWS)

介绍了国际海啸预警系统的构成、地震与海啸信息的检测、海啸预警信息的发布，并介绍了太平洋海啸预警中心和阿拉斯加海啸预警中心。     

Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.     

Relationship of Tsunami Intensity to Source Earthquake Magnitude as Retrieved from Historical Data

Operational prediction of near-field tsunamis in all existing Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) is based on fast determination of the position and size of submarine earthquakes. Exceedance of earthquake magnitude above some established threshold value, which can vary over different tsunamigenic zones, results in issuing a warning signal. Usually, a warning message has several (from 2 to 5) grades reflecting the degree of tsunami danger and sometimes contains expected wave heights at the coast. Current operational methodology is based on two main assumptions: (1) submarine earthquakes above some threshold magnitude can generate dangerous tsunamis and (2) the height of a resultant tsunami is, in general, proportional to the earthquake magnitude. While both assumptions are physically reasonable and generally correct, statistics of issued warnings are far from being satisfactory. For the last 55 years, up to 75% of warnings for regional tsunamis have turned out to be false, while each TWS has had at least a few cases of missing dangerous tsunamis. This paper presents the results of investigating the actual dependence of tsunami intensity on earthquake magnitude as it can be retrieved from historical observations and discusses the degree of correspondence of the above assumptions to real observations. Tsunami intensity, based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale is used as a measure of tsunami “size”. Its correlation with the M _s and M _w magnitudes is investigated based on historical data available for the instrumental period of observations (from 1900 to present).     

南中国海区域海啸预警中心地震监测系统

简要介绍了南中国海区域海啸预警与减灾系统的建设和发展历程,同时重点阐述了地震监测系统构成及其基本功能。作为重要组成部分,地震监测系统通过地震数据的实时汇集、存储、自动处理和分析,并结合人机交互方式实现了地震定位、震源机制解和有限断层模型反演。实际应用表明,地震监测系统对全球6.0级以上地震定位时间不超过8 min,在震后10—15 min内完成W震相方法快速反演海底强震震源机制解,在震后短时间内完成有限断层模型反演,为海啸预警提供快速、准确、可靠的地震基本参数和震源特征参数。      

Tsunami Generated by the Late Bronze Age Eruption of Thera (Santorini), Greece

—Tsunami were generated during the Late Bronze Age (LBA) eruption of the island of Thera, in the southern Aegean Sea, by both caldera collapse, and by the entry of pyroclastic surges/flows and lahars/debris flows into the sea. Tsunami generated by caldera collapse propagated to the west producing deep-sea sedimentary deposits in the eastern Mediterranean Sea known as homogenites; open-ocean wave heights of about 1.9–17 m are estimated. Tsunami generated by the entry of pyroclastic flows/surges and lahars/debris flows into the sea propagated in all directions around the island; wave heights along coastal areas were about 7–12 m as estimated from newly identified tsunami deposits on eastern Thera as well as from pumice deposits found at archaeological sites on northern and eastern Crete.     

地震与海啸

海啸是严重的地震次生灾害之一,简要介绍了海啸的成因、分布、量度、传播特征及对我国的影响;并就国际及我国如何加强海啸监测,联合建设预警预报系统提出建议。     

Tsunami and its Hazard in the Indian and Pacific Oceans: Introduction

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused an estimated 230,000 casualties, the worst tsunami disaster in history. A similar-sized tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, generated by the 1960 Chilean earthquake, commenced international collaborations on tsunami warning systems, and in the tsunami research community through the Tsunami Commission of International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics. The IUGG Tsunami Commission, established in 1960, has been holding the biannual International Tsunami Symposium (ITS). This volume contains selected papers mostly presented at the 22nd ITS, held in the summer of 2005. This introduction briefly summarizes the progress of tsunami and earthquake research as well as international cooperation on tsunami warning systems and the impact of the 2004 tsunami. Brief summaries of each paper are also presented.     

复阻尼多自由度系统动力分析的模态叠加法

工程实际中,复阻尼多自由度系统的瞬态响应过去一直是通过频域方法求解的。频域方法的一个突出问题是求传递函数矩阵的计算工作量过大。本文给出一种有效而实用的时域解法———实模态叠加法,此外还介绍了复模态叠加法。实模态叠加法是基于一个事实,即n维复向量空间中的复向量可以在n维实向量空间中的一组线性无关的实向量构成的基下表出;另外,就此方法还讨论了复阻尼多自由度系统初始运动条件的给出和转换问题。复模态叠加法则是通过变量替换的方法,变其中的复特征值问题为形式上的一个实特征值问题来解决的。     

Introduction to “Tsunami Science Four Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, Part I: Modelling and Hazard Assessment”

In this introduction we briefly summarize the 14 contributions to Part I of this special issue on Tsunami Science Four Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. These papers are representative of the new tsunami science being conducted since the occurrence of that tragic event. Most of these were presented at the session: Tsunami Generation and Hazard, of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics XXIV General Assembly held at Perugia, Italy, in July of 2007. That session included over one hundred presentations on a wide range of topics in tsunami research. The papers grouped into Part I, and introduced here, cover topics directly related to tsunami mitigation such as numerical modelling, hazard assessment and databases. Part II of this special issue, Observations and Data Analysis, will be published in a subsequent volume of Pure and Applied Geophysics.     

Synthetic study on SS waveform splitting and complication

Some influential factors on the complication of SS waveform (with epicentral distance within 40°～180°) are ana- lyzed quantitatively by calculating the full-wave synthetic seismogram using propagation matrix method. Our re- sults show that the transmission-conversion and reflection-conversion phases of S wave at the interface of Moho and free surface beneath bounce points are mainly responsible for the complication of SS waveform, the velocity contrast between the two sides of Moho boundary under SS bounce point also has great effects on the amplitudes of all the conversion and the reverberation phases; the properties of the crust at seismic station also play a role in the complication of SS waveform while the crustal thickness beneath bounce point is thinner relatively. At the same time, two sets of real SS waveform data at the two positions in eastern and western China are analyzed, and the splitting time between SS transverse component and radial component is measured by cross-correlation. Our analysis demonstrates that there is a positive correlation between crustal thickness and the splitting time because of the influences of adjacent conversion and reverberation phases, the splitting time in west with thick crust is ob- viously greater than that in the east with thin crust. Moreover, It is promising that one new method of measurement of crustal thickness will be developed by using the observed SS splitting time.     

海啸传播模型与数值模拟研究进展

海啸在浅水大陆架的传播问题由于其非线性作用和浅水效应而变得十分复杂,然而目前成熟的海啸传播理论及数值模拟结果在这方面与实际并不一致.本文比较分析了可用来模拟大陆架海啸传播的浅水波模型和数值方法,并提出对我国东海陆架边缘可能发生的近海海啸需要开展数值试验研究.     

高保真高分辨率遥测地震勘探采集系统研制及应用

矿产资源勘探尤其是金属矿勘探具有地质条件复杂、勘探深度大、分辨率要求高等特点.常规地震勘探技术与装备难以满足复杂地形高精度三维地震勘探需求.针对该技术难题,研发一套高保真、高分辨率轻便分布式混合遥测地震勘探系统迫在眉睫.鉴于此本文开发了信号高保真高分辨率数据采集技术、实时通讯及采集单元无址链接技术和多媒介混合遥测技术等一系列关键技术.成功研制出SE863单站单道分布式混合遥测地震数据采集系统,该系统由31位高分辨率采集单元链、集3 G/4 G无线通讯及有线通讯的交叉数据管理站、便携式主控站以及测控软件组成.支持二维、三维高密度地震反射波勘探、散射成像、天然源透射成像等地震数据采集工作.利用该套系统与428XL地震数据采集系统进行同步对比,并将该系统交付第三方使用完成了1 km²三维地震勘探实验,结果表明该系统设备轻便、性能稳定、分辨率高、数据质量好,是我国具有完全自主知识产权的高精度轻便分布式地震勘探技术装备,大大增强了我国地震勘探技术核心竞争力.     

CT扫描技术在岩心三维重建中的应用

岩石是具有复杂空间几何分布和不同孔隙尺寸的多孔介质,复杂的孔隙结构不仅影响着岩石的物理性质,同时也为石油天然气等能源的开采带来困难。本文介绍一种基于三维数字岩心的新方法CDPRM,CDPRM利用CT扫描高精度、高分辨率等优点构建类似真实岩心的三维模型,利用3-matic软件将数字岩心转化为数据模型STL文件,导入3D打印机打印岩样并用于实验,同时用HYPERMESH软件对三维孔隙模型进行网格划分并导入有限元软件进行数值模拟。以砂岩为例,对CDPRM的数值模拟应用进行了初步探索。最后对CDPRM的发展做了展望,认为3D打印制作材料混合使用和其他技术（如:光弹性技术）相结合应用将是主要研究方向。      

A Tsunami Detection and Warning-focused Sea Level Station Metadata Web Service

Currently information used to describe sea-level stations (such as location, collection and transmission capabilities, operator identification, etc.) is distributed among databases held by multiple agencies, institutions and organizations. Such information could be used to support detection and warning. However, the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 26 December, 2004 made it clear that such information is not readily accessible, is difficult to use, and is often incomplete. In addressing this issue, agencies within the Pacific region are collaborating to develop a web service to expose station metadata enabling various types of real-time data mining client applications that support decision-making and strategic planning at Tsunami Warning Centers. Because information about sea levels has a broad range of applications, integration of this information in a way that is comprehensive, and enhances its access and use, would have a tremendous impact on lives and livelihoods.     

应用多种来源重力异常编制中国海陆及邻区空间重力异常图及重力场解读

本文通过分析陆地实测空间重力异常数据、海洋船载测量空间重力异常数据、卫星测高重力异常,布格重力异常数据、EGM2008地球重力模型数据等多种来源数据的性质和精度,并对相关数据进行对比,研究了编制1:500万中国海陆空间重力异常图的数据使用方案和技术方法.在地形较为平坦、实测数据分布均匀的陆区,使用实测数据,在地形复杂,实测数据稀少以及没有实测数据的陆区或岛屿,利用布格重力异常反推空间异常的方法合成平均空间重力数据,西藏地区的数据对比实验证明合成平均空间重力异常数据是一种有效的数据补充.利用三观测列方差分解法在南海地区对船载测量空间重力数据和美国SS系列及丹麦DNSC08GRA卫星重力数据进行了方差分解计算,结果表明不同来源的卫星测高重力数据具有很大的一致性,数据精度较以往有了很大的提高.海区空间重力数据使用原则是在船载重力测量数据校准下,全面使用卫星测高重力数据进行编图.海陆过渡区的异常处理应以EGM2008地球重力模型重力场为基准参考场,实现海陆异常平缓过渡,无缝连接.对中国海陆空间重力异常场进行了小波变换处理,对空间重力异常场进行了解读,勾画出三横四竖的一级重力梯级带及其所围限的8个一级重力异常区,并划分了二级重力异常区和梯级带,为块体构造学体系中大地构造格架的建立提供了地球物理证据.     

葡萄牙破坏性地震和海啸预警系统(DETWS)

本文介绍了葡萄牙破坏性地震和海啸预警系统(Destructive Earthquakes and Tsunami Warning System)的构成、地震与海啸信息的检测、海啸预警信息的发布。     

Steps Towards the Implementation of a Tsunami Detection, Warning, Mitigation and Preparedness Program for Southwestern Coastal Areas of Mexico

The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta, is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas.