Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)

Global sea levels have risen through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This rise will almost certainly continue and probably accelerate during the rest of the twenty-first century, albeit there is strong disagreement about the range of future sea level rise due to uncertainties regarding scenarios and emission of greenhouse gasses. Although the impacts of sea level rise are diverse, inundation during high tides is one of the most obvious and immediate consequences. A probabilistic methodology for mapping the inundation hazard because of sea level rise has been applied to the coast of El Puerto de Santa María in the province of Cádiz in southwest Spain. This methodology involves a step forward since represents the full range of probabilities, associated with each scenario of sea level rise considered, and thus offers a more realistic view of the probability of inundation in each area. Results show large differences in the spatial distribution of probable inundation in urban areas and wetlands leading to different consequences for management actions.     

Vulnerability and fate of a coastal sand dune complex,Rosetta-Idku,northwestern Nile Delta,Egypt

Types, distribution, and origin of recent sand dunes between Rosetta and Idku, in the western sector of the Nile Delta, Egypt were investigated. Sand samples from the dunes, beach, and seafloor were studied for grain size distribution and mineralogical composition. It has been found that most of the dunes in the study area have been subjected to deterioration and removal due to the construction of buildings and the International Coastal Highway. The remnant constitutes a damaged belt of foredunes that extends from El Bouseily village to the west of Idku town. The dune’s origin is interpreted to be the result of coastal drifting and the subsequent transport of sediments of the former Canopic Nile branch eastward by the predominant longshore current and by aeolian processes. The blown sand grains accumulated to form a belt of coastal sand dunes of original longitudinal and crescentic forms. Urbanization of the coast has severely altered the landscape. The study area is considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and the expected rise in sea level. The outcome of potential sea level rise is serious; erosion problems are expected to be exacerbated and vast areas from land and property would be lost. Thus, protection and preservation the remaining dunes in the study area are vital requirements for shore protection.     

Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas to sea level rise from the physical and socioeconomic parameters: case of the Gulf Coast of Bejaia,Algeria

The study area (the Gulf of Bejaia) is a coastal zone of about 70 km long in the eastern-central part of the Algerian coast. The coastline characterized by sandy beaches, hotels and tourist facilities, airport, port, villages and towns has known during these last decades several threats like storms, floods and erosion. The present work concerns the mapping of the physical and socioeconomic vulnerability of the Gulf Coast of Bejaia to sea level rise, using Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) and geospatial tools. The Physical CVI (CVI_Phys) is calculated from seven physical variables: geomorphology, coastal slope, coastal regional elevation, sea level rise rate, shoreline erosion/accretion rates, tidal range and significant wave height. On the other hand, the parameters population, cultural heritage, roads, railways, land use and conservation designation constitute, for their part, the socioeconomic CVI (CVI_eco). The values obtained from the calculation of CVI_Phys vary between 3.53 and 81.83. These results revealed that 22.42 km of the studied coastline has a low physical vulnerability, 21.68 km a high vulnerability and 15.83 km a very high vulnerability, indicating that the most part of the coastline (53.59%) is vulnerable to sea level rise. According to the obtained values of CVI_eco, the most vulnerable areas of high and very high risk represent 31.81 km of the total coastline. They were found along the western (Bejaia and Tichy) and eastern (Aokas, Souk El Tenine and Melbou) coast, while the least vulnerable stretches, covering 38.19 km of the total length of the coast, occupy the rest of the area. This study highlighted areas that will be most affected by future sea level rise (SLR) and storm events. It revealed that several development projects of Bejaia Gulf Coast, including tourist expansion areas, are planned in sites identified as very vulnerable. The results obtained from this assessment could guide local planners and decision-makers in developing coastal management plans in the most vulnerable areas.     

Late Holocene Sea Level Reconstructions Based on Observations of Roman Fish Tanks,Tyrrhenian Coast of Italy

We present estimates for late Holocene relative sea level change along the Tyrrhenian coast of Italy based on morphological characteristics of eight submerged Roman fish tanks (piscinae) constructed between the 1st century B.C. and the 2nd century A.D. Underwater geomorphological features and archaeological remains related to past sea level have been measured and corrected using recorded tidal values. We conclude that local sea level during the Roman period did not exceed 58 ± 5 cm below the present sea level. These results broadly agree with previous observations in the region but contrast with recent analysis that suggests a significantly larger sea level rise during the last 2000 years. Using a glacial isostatic adjustment model, we explain how regional sea level change departs from the eustatic component. Our calculation of relative sea level during the Roman period provides a reference for isolating the long‐wavelength contribution to sea level change from secular sea level rise. Precise determination of sea level rise in the study area improves our understanding of secular, instrumentally observed, variations across the Mediterranean. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat of the Nile Delta promontories,Egypt

Studies of the Nile Delta coast have indicated wide values of local subsidence, ranging from 0.4 to 5 mm/yr. Trend analysis of sea-level rise and shoreline retreat at two Nile Delta promontories have been studied. Records from tide gauges at Alexandria (1944–1989) and Port Said (1926–1987), north of the Nile delta coast, indicate a submergence of the land and/or a rise of the sea-level of 2 and 2.4 mm/yr, respectively. Dramatic erosion has occurred on some beaches of the Nile Delta. This is greatest at the tips of the Rosetta and Damietta promontories, with shoreline retreat up to 58 m/yr. Relationship between the shoreline retreat and sea level trends in terms of correlation analysis and application of the Bruun Rule indicates that the sea level rise has, by itself, a relatively minor effect on coastal erosion. The sea-level trend at the Nile delta coast is found to be only one of several effects on shoreline retreat. Major recent effects include a combination of cut-off of sediment supply to the coast by damming the River Nile and local hydrodynamic forces of waves and currents. Estimates of local future sea-level rise by the year 2100 at Alexandria and Port Said, respectively, is expected to be 37.9 and 44.2 cm. These expectations, combined with other factors, could accelerate coastal erosion, inundate wetlands and lowlands, and increase the salinity of lakes and aquifers.     

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat of the Nile Delta promontories, Egypt

Studies of the Nile Delta coast have indicated wide values of local subsidence, ranging from 0.4 to 5 mm/yr. Trend analysis of sea-level rise and shoreline retreat at two Nile Delta promontories have been studied. Records from tide gauges at Alexandria (1944–1989) and Port Said (1926–1987), north of the Nile delta coast, indicate a submergence of the land and/or a rise of the sea-level of 2 and 2.4 mm/yr, respectively.Dramatic erosion has occurred on some beaches of the Nile Delta. This is greatest at the tips of the Rosetta and Damietta promontories, with shoreline retreat up to 58 m/yr. Relationship between the shoreline retreat and sea level trends in terms of correlation analysis and application of the Bruun Rule indicates that the sea level rise has, by itself, a relatively minor effect on coastal erosion. The sea-level trend at the Nile delta coast is found to be only one of several effects on shoreline retreat. Major recent effects include a combination of cut-off of sediment supply to the coast by damming the River Nile and local hydrodynamic forces of waves and currents. Estimates of local future sea-level rise by the year 2100 at Alexandria and Port Said, respectively, is expected to be 37.9 and 44.2 cm. These expectations, combined with other factors, could accelerate coastal erosion, inundate wetlands and lowlands, and increase the salinity of lakes and aquifers.     

Sea Level change: Environmental and socio-economic impacts

The coast was among the first of the earth’s environments to be subjected to human modification; modification that was both direct and indirect, as it is today. During the last 4.000 to 5.000 years, human impacts on the coast were at what was basically a stable sea level. Because many of the modifications were made to protect against unusual events such as typhoons and tsunami, humans developed a variety of techniques for protecting shorelines. Recent calculations that a rapid sea level rise (in response to greenhouse warming) is imminent, has prompted concerned efforts at meeting the socio-economic impacts that are likely to occur. These impacts, rather than being localized and temporary as has been true in the recent past, are likely to be universal and long-lasting. This thought, penned by Blaise Pascal, was accompanied by an artistic interpretation by Corita Kent inNewsweek, June 14,1976, p. 87.     

Grain size characteristics of superficial sediments of the Gulf of Tunis (NE Tunisia)

This work presents a recent grain size study characterizing superficial sediments of the whole sectors of the Gulf of Tunis which extends from Sidi Ali El Mekki to Sidi Daoued. In this study, a total of 112 samples were collected from different depths following 26 profiles perpendicular to the shore and from rivers. The determination of the proportions of coarse and fine fractions and the interpretation of the grain size results lead to dividing the Gulf of Tunis into two principal coasts: (1) the western coast situated between Sidi Ali El Mekki and Borj Cédria, which is characterized by three sedimentary facies: (a) a sandy facies along the coastline, (b) a mixed facies between Ghar El Melh and Raoued, near the Medjerda River, and between La Goulette and Ezzahra, near the Miliane River, and (c) a muddy facies between Ghar El Melh and Kalâat El Andalous and covered by fine to very fine sands, and (2) the eastern coast, which is characterized by a sandy facies and covered by medium to coarse sands. The dominant N–E and N–W waves generate longshore currents that provide sediment transport following the directions N–S, from Sidi Ali El Mekki to Kalâat El Andalous; SE–NW, from Gammarth to Raoued; NE–SW, from Sidi Bou Saïd to La Goulette and from Sidi Daoued to Bir El Jadi; SE–NW, from Hammam-Plage to Ezzahra; and SW–NE, from Port aux Princes to Rtiba.     

全球海平面变化研究新进展

综述了近10年来海平面变化研究的主要成果,分析了影响海平面变化的主要因素,探讨了海平面变化研究中存在的一些问题。结果表明：①近10年全球平均海平面上升幅度大约为2.5~3.84 mm/a,热膨胀是引起海平面上升的主因;②海平面变化具有时空分布差异——西太平洋和东印度洋地区上升最快,其值高出全球平均值的10倍以上;大西洋与太平洋30~40°N地区季节变化最明显;③将海平面季节高值时段与北半球热带气旋出现时间进行对比,发现每年8~10月份,在20~50°N的西北太平洋与北大西洋沿岸地区出现海平面最高值与热带气旋相叠加的全球危险海岸带,该地带包括中国大陆东部、日本沿海地区、美国东部海岸带、墨西哥湾地区和加勒比海地区。     

未来江苏中部沿海相对海面变化预测

相对海面变化是由全球绝对海面变化和区域性地面和海面因素共同控制。通过对江苏沿海近几十年来的潮位记录的分析,得出江苏沿海近期的相对海面变化速率。在此基础上根据近期绝对海面的变化速率计算出局地因素对江苏沿海相对海面变化的贡献量。在假设未来局地因素影响基本不变的前提下与IPCC对未来100年绝对海面的变化趋势 进行叠加,预测了江苏沿海未来相对海面变化的趋势。结果显示,江苏中部沿海海面在2000-2100年的100年间将上升15～152 cm,较IPCC对同期全球平均海平面上升的预测结果大的多。最后就区域性海面气压对相对海面变化的影响进行了讨论。     

海平面上升的海岸形态响应研究方法与进展

海岸带是人口最稠密的地带,全世界几乎一半的人口生活在沿海地区[1](根据UNCEDDE的定义,以距海岸线150 km计)。受全球变化,尤其是21世纪海平面加速上升的影响,海岸将发生复杂的形态响应过程,包括海岸侵蚀、滩地淹没和湿地沉积平衡的调整等,从而危害人类的生存和发展,引起世界沿海各国政府和科学界的广泛关注。从海平面上升海岸响应历史记录研究、海岸均衡剖面研究和形态响应模拟研究三个方面概述了海平面上升海岸形态响应的国内外研究进展,并对各种研究方法的适用范围、优点及局限性进行了讨论。     

Submerged archaeological sites along the Ionian coast of southeastern Sicily (Italy) and implications for the Holocene relative sea-level change

Precise measurements of submerged archaeological markers in the Siracusa coast (Southeastern Sicily, Italy) provide new data on relative sea-level change during the late Holocene. Four submerged archaeological sites have been studied and investigated through direct observations. Two of them are Greek archaic in age (2.5–2.7 ka) and are now 0.98–1.48 m below sea level; the other two developed during the Bronze age (3.2–3.8 ka) and are now 1.03–1.97 m below sea level. These archaeological data have been integrated with information derived from a submerged speleothem collected in a cave located along the Siracusa coast at − 20 m depth. The positions of the archaeological markers have been measured with respect to present sea level, corrected for tide and pressure at the time of surveys. These data were compared with predicted sea-level rise curves for the Holocene using a glacio-hydro-isostatic model. The comparison with the curve for the southeastern Sicily coast yields a tectonic component of relative sea-level change related to regional uplift. Uplift rates between 0.3 and 0.8 mm/yr have been estimated.     

中国东部沿海更新世末期以来海陆变迁的初步认识

更新世末期以来,中国东部沿海地区经历了海进、海退和相对稳定三个阶段。中全新世中期为海侵鼎盛时期,其海面较现今高2—5m。全新世冰后期是玉木(大理)冰期中的间冰阶,自晚全新世以来,气候开始向新的冰阶缓慢过渡。由CO_2增加所导致的“温室效应”虽然可以减缓这一进程,但目前还不能改变气候发展的自然规律。关于海平面将普通上升5m的预测,尚缺乏令人信服的证据。今后一个时期内,中国东部区域海面和岸线仍将继续保持相对稳定状态,但局部变化将十分明显而频繁,渤海湾西岸等地区,存在着海侵威胁。     

Tide gauge records,water level rise,and subsidence in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Long-term water level changes in the northern Gulf of Mexico were examined using tide gauge records for this century. Strong coherence exists between the annual mean water changes at Galveston, Texas, and (1) the relatively geologically-stable west coast of Florida, (2) global mean sea level, and 93) the subsiding Louisiana coast. Water levels at the Galveston gauge, one of the longest records (81 yr), have risen steadily, but not accelerated over the long-term. The apparent acceleration of water rise in the recent two decades is within the historical pattern, and is probably driven by regional or global, but not local climatic factors. Because eustatic sea level has risen steadily this century, the analysis supports the conclusion that regional geologic subsidence has not varied significantly over the tide gauge record (1909–1988). Variations in the estimates of subsidence in the surface layers are generally consistent with the generally accepted understanding of the geology of deltaic processes on this coast.     

Late Pleistocene raised beaches of coastal Estremadura,central Portugal

We present new stratigraphic, sedimentological, and chronological data for a suite of tectonically raised beaches dating to Marine Isotope Stages 5, 4, and 3 along the Estremadura coast of west-central Portugal. The beach deposits are found in association with ancient tidal channels and coastal dunes, pollen bearing mud and peat, and Middle Paleolithic archaeological sites that confirm occupation of the coastal zone by Neanderthal populations. The significance of these deposits is discussed in terms of the archaeological record, the tectonic and geomorphic evolution of the coast, and correlation with reconstructions of global climate and eustatic sea-level change. Direct correlation between the Estremadura beach sections is complicated by the tectonic complexity of the area and the age of the beach deposits (which are near or beyond the limit of radiocarbon dating). Evidence from multiple sites dated by AMS radiocarbon and optical luminescence methods suggests broad synchroneity in relative sea-level changes along this coast during Marine Isotope Stage 3. Two beach complexes with luminescence and radiocarbon age control date to about 35 ka and 42 ka, recording a rise in relative sea level around the time of Heinrich Event 4 at 39 ka. Depending on assumptions about eustatic sea level at the time they were deposited, we estimate that these beaches have been uplifted at rates of 0.4–4.3 mm yr^?1 by the combined effects of tectonic, halokinetic, and isostatic processes. Uplift rates of 1–2 mm yr^?1 are likely if the beaches represent sea level stands at roughly 40 m below modern, as suggested by recent eustatic sea level reconstructions. Evidence from coastal bluffs and the interior of the study area indicates extensive colluvial, fluvial, and aeolian sedimentation beginning around 31 ka and continuing into the Holocene. These geomorphic adjustments are related to concomitant changes in climate and sea level, providing context that improves our understanding of Late Pleistocene landscape change and human occupation on the western Iberian margin.     

Sea‐level markers identified in ground‐penetrating radar data collected across a modern beach ridge system in a microtidal regime

Sea‐level rise has been related to global warming. The modern system on the northern coast of Anholt, Denmark, may well be analogous to other beach ridge systems formed in microtidal regimes and our results should have impact on estimation of past sea‐level variation. Ground‐penetrating radar data collected across the modern (<30 years old) berm, beach ridge and swale deposits resolve downlapping reflections interpreted to mark sea level at the time of deposition. Existing time series of sea‐level data constrain actual sea‐level variation. Nineteen readings of sea‐level markers made along our profile fluctuate within ?0.42 and 0.57 m above present mean sea level, consistent with 95% of the sea‐level data. These fluctuations reflect tidal effects and meteorological conditions. Main data uncertainties are well‐known and the sea‐level markers may be identified with a high degree of confidence.     

中国沿岸海平面上升及影响研究的现状与问题

对近年来中国沿岸相对海平面上升趋势及其影响研究的现状进行了总结，着重就目前研究中有关我国沿岸潮滩湿地与其他低地淹没以及加剧的海岸灾害估算等方面存在的难点和问题进行了分析与讨论。并在此基础上提出今后应加强相关基础资料积累、重视海平面上升与其他协同作用因素对研究对象的综合影响、海平面上升引起的海洋水文与海岸环境要素演变以及我国沿岸海岸信息系统研究等方面的建议。     

Yria (western Naxos island,Greece): Sea level changes in Upper Holocene and palaeogeographical reconstruction

The Saint Georgios coastal zone, located at the W coast of Naxos, the largest island of the Central Aegean Sea, was investigated in order to determine the palaeo-geography, sea level changes and their effect to the palaeo-environment of western Naxos island and to human activity. Detailed geomorphological mapping, study of micropaleontological and sedimentological characteristics and dating analyses of the Late Holocene of St. Georgios coastal zone were conducted.

To obtain information about the Holocene stratigraphy under the recent alluvial cover, three boreholes followed the detailed geomorphological mapping. Microfaunal analysis took place and five samples of plants, shells, peat and charred material were also collected from several layers of the sedimentary sequence and were dated using AMS and conventional radiocarbon techniques providing temporal control of the sediments. The sea-land interactions during Upper Holocene, in relation to the eustatic sea level oscillations, as well as the geomorphologic observations and analysis on deposited sediments, aims to reveal the palaeo-geographic evolution of the landscape and its impact on the archaeological sites. Sea level rise along with sea-land interactions to the landscape evolution and the transgression of sea in 6144 BP have been verified.     

Late Holocene sea levels in Ireland

The course of Irish sea levels during the late-Holocene is not well-known, yet it is an understanding of this period that will prove crucial in the definition and management of future sea-level changes. The coastline of Ireland embraces wide environmental and glacio-isostatic contrasts, which serve and, to some extent, control sea-level events at both local and regional scales, making definitive resolution of relative sea-level changes difficult. In the southwest, the picture is of inexorable relative sea-level rise. Studies in Co. Kerry show a gradual submergence of terrestrial facies, by estuarine and, in places, marine materials. Pollen and diatom studies, together with ¹⁴C dates, suggest a decreasing rate of relative sea-level rise in the last 2500 years, often associated with geomorphological changes. Sites on the south coast of Ireland confirm the evidence from the southwest. In Cork Harbour, recent relative sea-level rise since 2100 BP was responsible for marginal land submergence, while elsewhere rising water levels appear to have caused rapid barrier migrations and coast erosion. Palaeoenvironmental evidence from this region suggests a distinctive pattern of sea-level change, associated with sedimentary and/or crustal dynamics, which is not encountered elsewhere in northwest Europe. The overall rate of relative sea-level change on the south and southwest coasts falls between 0.6 and 1.1 mm/year over the last 5000 years. In the north, there is a clear east to west variation in relative sea-level trends, following an isostatically-controlled peak (+3 to ?1 m OD) between 6500 BP (east) and 3500 BP (west). Falling sea levels from 3500 to 1500 BP have been followed by a general slow rise, although there are still local anomalies to this pattern, most noticeably at Malin Head, where sea level is currently falling at 2.4mm/year. Relative sea-level signatures in Ireland differ markedly between the north and south coasts. Furthermore geomorphological and ecological contexts of this rise vary from east to west, providing a complex all-Ireland framework for future investigations.     

Holocene evolution of the Anichab Pan on the south-west coast of Namibia

Coastal sediment-filled depressions (pans) are one of the few areas that contain Quaternary records of sea-level and palaeoenvironmental change along the western margin of southern Africa. Anichab is a 128 km² salt-encrusted pan on the hyper-arid southern coast of Namibia with an emergent, well-preserved and in-place mid-Holocene mollusc assemblage. The molluscs are typical of subtidal sands on the sheltered side of offshore islands but include several warm-water species no longer found living along this coast. The Holocene evolution of the pan was largely influenced by changes in sea level and supply of sand along the coast. Calibrated radiocarbon ages of mollusc shells indicate a maximum Holocene sea level of ca 2 m above mean sea level (msl) from 7·0 to 6·3 ka and a return to near present-day sea level by 5·3 ka. The pan surface is 2 m below msl and has been emergent since 4·9 ka from the build up of sandy beaches and coastal dunes. A thin (1–4 cm) halite crust occurs over much of the pan surface but a layer of halite-cemented sand up to 40 cm thick is restricted to the central pan. Gypsum occurs near the subsurface brine interface and is limited by calcium to the edges of the pan. Nodules of calcite-cemented sand are forming in brackish, relatively high alkalinity subsurface waters in the south-east corner of the pan and nodules of aragonite-cemented sand are forming in brines 1 m below the central pan surface. Although modern dolomite has been reported from coastal lagoons of Brazil and Australia, carbonate cements are a minor feature of Anichab Pan and dolomite was restricted to a single reworked nodule most likely of Late Pleistocene age. Therefore, Anichab Pan does not appear to be a modern analogue to extensive, mixed-water dolomite cements found in Upper Pleistocene sediment-filled depressions on the Namibian shelf.