模糊多属性决策模型在海洋平台选型中的应用

将模糊多属性决策理论应用于海洋平台设计选型中,根据多个属性的估计值,结合决策者的偏好,通过综合评价,在若干设计方案中选出最优方案.考虑到在概念设计阶段对于属性特征值及属性权重值的估计带有一定的模糊不确定性,将属性特征值和属性权重值表示为模糊数的形式,并且根据模糊集理论的表现定理得出各个设计方案的决策值.根据模糊数排序理论对设计方案进行排序并得到最优设计方案.总之,该研究为海洋平台设计方案的选型决策提高了一种新方法.     

人类活动对海岸海洋环境的影响——以海南岛为例

通过对海南岛南部三亚湾海岸海洋和东部铜鼓岭海岸海洋环境的调查和研究,探讨了人类活动对海岸海洋环境的深刻影响.结果表明,海南岛三亚湾岸段处于中等开发状态,存在生活污水排放和城市建筑违规等环境问题;东部铜鼓岭岸段处于初级开发状态,环境问题主要是养殖排污.人类活动对海岸海洋环境带来负面效应的同时,也在充分利用海岸海洋资源.因此,根据海岸海洋环境特征,充分发挥人的主观能动性,尽可能减少人类活动对海岸海洋环境的负面影响,扩大人类活动对海岸海洋环境的正面效应.     

基于多源数据的福建东山岛海岸侵蚀及其不同时空尺度成因分析

海岸侵蚀对海岛紧缺的陆地资源及旅游价值较大的沙滩危害巨大。基于卫星遥感、有人航空摄影、无人机航测、GPS和现场调查等多源数据,利用GIS分析了东山岛海岸线类型、位置与长度变化及滩面冲蚀演变。研究表明,东山岛多处曲折自然岸线转化为较为平直的人工岸线致使整体岸线长度减少,无人机高程反演满足滩面排水冲蚀监测精度要求,乌礁湾和山南湾不同养殖排水方式形成不同特征的滩面冲沟,改变了沙滩微地貌形态。海平面上升和台风风暴潮是长期趋势性和短期突发性侵蚀因素的代表,当前短时间尺度的人类活动已成为滩面冲蚀的最主要因素,且有可能转变为长期趋势性因素。     

应用多属性聚类分析方法研究南黄海盆地二叠系沉积特征

地层参数的变化引起地震属性的变化,但是地层参数与地震属性的变化并没有一一对应的关系,这就带来了通过地震数据反演储层、岩性参数的多解性问题,因而采用多属性综合研究是重要的手段之一。南黄海盆地钻井较少,单井控制面积较大,利用地震属性信息研究了南黄海盆地二叠系沉积特征;并采用神经网络算法,提取了对岩性参数敏感的均方根振幅、反射强度、相对波阻抗、主频、平均瞬时频率5种地震属性;对南黄海盆地二叠系地层进行属性聚类分析,刻画出砂岩和灰岩2种岩相的分布特征,不仅避免了单一地震属性的多解性问题,同时突显了二叠系下统栖霞组灰岩之上的碎屑岩特征。结合井—震分析,确定南黄海盆地二叠系龙潭—大隆组沉积时期主要发育陆棚相、潮坪—潟湖—沼泽相及河流相。     

多波束海底覆盖区域计算模型研究

根据多波束探测原理,提出了一种波束脚印为梯形的多波束海底覆盖区域估计模型,讨论了在测船动态状况下测量时的海底覆盖区域变化规律,仿真试验表明该算法能够较好地显示多波束在海底的覆盖区域。     

珠江三角洲的活动断裂与区域稳定性分析

珠江三角洲的活动断裂主要为弱活动断裂,分别属于NW,NE和EW向三组断裂,活动断裂是控制该三角洲断块运动和地震活动的关键。珠江三角洲主要为区域稳定性中等地区。     

基于FCM算法的多属性分析技术在河道砂体精细刻画中的应用

西湖凹陷T气田经过十多年的勘探与开发,亟需在主力层花港组内寻找潜力目标。该区为浅水三角洲沉积体系,岩性组合在空间上变化快,为了精确识别河道砂体及其边界,在海上少井条件下利用三维地震资料识别并刻画河道砂体。在等时地层划分的基础上,对目的层段进行岩石物理性质分析,通过地震沉积学的技术方法结合岩芯及测井等资料,对沉积微相做出初步判断,在此基础上提取6类48种地震属性,与砂厚及各属性之间进行相关性分析,对地震属性进行优选,将优选出的3种反映地质体边界、岩性较好的地震属性采用基于模糊C-均值（FCM）算法的多属性聚类分析,以达到数据降维、减少冗余的效果,研究分流河道沉积体系的整体展布规律。再进行多属性RGB融合显示,增强河道砂体边界的刻画,结合构造特征以及预测的砂体厚度综合分析,提出有利目标区,为后续油田滚动开发及井位部署提供依据。     

联合效用理论与风险量化的防波堤决策模型研究

回顾和总结了当前防波堤项目的决策模型,介绍了效用理论的起源、发展和理论基础,提出了效用理论结合防波堤风险量化方法的新型风险决策模型.以某直立式防波堤的优化设计为例,将防波堤滑移失效概率、防波堤尺度、生命周期内的风险损失和预期收益、决策者风险态度等量化指标纳入决策系统,比较了费用最小化、费用-收益权衡和效用三种决策模型,探讨了优化设计重现期的确定.结果表明,决策者的风险态度将极大地影响防波堤方案的选择,而费用-收益模型实质上是效用模型的一种特殊情况,这凸显了效用模型的包容性和合理性.     

西湖凹陷平北地区平湖组基于地震多属性的储层预测

始新统平湖组是东海西湖凹陷平北地区最重要的油气储层,但受资料条件的限制,应用常规方法无法进行精细的储层预测,制约了研究区的油气勘探部署和进程。应用地震多属性分析技术,结合测井曲线、岩心、岩性及区域地质资料,对平北地区平湖组的岩相进行了精细解释,并对有利目标区进行了初步预测,结果表明,平北地区平湖组发育潮汐控制的三角洲相和潮坪相两种类型的沉积相,并以三角洲相内的储层发育,砂体连片性好,工区西南部三角洲前缘相发育区为油气勘探的有利目标区。     

模糊多属性决策法在海底电缆路由方案比选中的应用

海底电缆预选路由方案的比选需要参考多种指标,这些指标包含定量和定性两种,但各指标间的不可公度性,给路由方案的选择提出挑战。文章提出了一种基于离差思想和模糊向量投影的多属性决策法。首先引入三角模糊数,将定性指标合理量化,构建决策矩阵,规范化后运用离差思想求解各指标权重,然后计算各方案在正理想方案和负理想方案上的投影,最后求出相对贴近度,依据其大小比选出最佳方案。     

A Model for Nonlinear Irregular Waves in Coastal Area

Based on the refraction-diffraction theory of irregular waves in the waters of slowly-varying cur-rents and depths,and the generation dissipation theory of wind wave,a model for nonlinear irregular wavesin coastal area is developed.In light of the specific conditions of coastal wave character and engineering ap-plication,a practical mathematical model for the nonlinear irregular waves is presented.with directional spec-trum in coastal area.Coast effect,refraction,whitecapping.bottom friction.current,wind and nonlinearaction are considered in this model.The numerical methods and schemes for wave refraction ray,energy con-servation of propagation,energy balance of the generation and dissipation of wind waves have been studied.Finally,the model is used for the directional wave spectrum computation in the Daya Bay.Compared withthe measured data with 956 wave bouys in the Daya Bay,the model results are in good agreement with themeasured results.     

Probabilistic Approach of Coastal Defense Against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant

With the global wanning and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM).     

基于尾流振子模型的海底管跨动力特性研究

以海底细长柔性管跨结构为研究对象,分析了当管外流体流经管道时产生涡激振动的动力学特性及其相关影响参数。为了考察海底管跨的振动响应,将尾流振子模型与管跨的振动方程相结合,得到了流固耦合系统的振动响应分别由两个变量为管跨位移和尾流举升力的偏微分方程描述。使用van der Pol非线性振子模拟作用在管跨上的振动尾流,通过实例的计算与分析,确定几个重要参数对管跨振动响应的影响程度。     

不确定海况下海上型浮船坞作业性能预测方法研究

海上型浮船坞进行海上作业受到海况等不确定因素影响,作业性能难以在设计阶段进行预测,基本性能试验也无法模拟所有的海况。为此,文中从分析浮船坞作业流程入手,建立作业性能预测指标体系,提出作业性能定量预测模型,依据数据统计和评价模型,进行浮船坞海上作业性能预测。该方法是针对浮船坞作业性能评价的一次尝试,起到辅助设计和试验的作用。     

A Numerical Model of Coastal Processes of Sand Beaches Based on Long-Term Wave Series

A numerical model of shoreline change of sand beaches based on long-term field wave data is proposed, the explicit and implicit finite difference forms of the model are described, and an application of the model is presented. Results of the application indicate that the model is sensitive to the order of the input wave data, and that the effects of long-term wave series and the effects of the mean annual wave conditions on the model are different. Instead of a single wave condition, the wave series will make the calibration and the verification of the model more practical and the results of the model more reasonable.     

Research on Motion Performance of the Mobile Double-Causeway Pier System

Mobile offshore double-causeway pier system, a type of seashore unloading equipment, consists of two groups of multiple connected semi-submersible modules. This structure has wide application because most of the middle or mini type of vessels and ships can be moored to it. Based on the analysis of computational methods of multi-body motion response, a hydrodynamic model is set up and the three-dimensional potential theory in finite depth is adopted to calculate the three-dimensional motion response of this system. The double P-M spectrum is used to analyze the motion response in irregular waves. Different wave directions are specially taken into consideration, due to their various effects to the motion response. Furthermore, the calculated result is compared with that of the experiment, and it is proved that sway, heave, pitch and yaw motion are greatly constrained by mooring system. The comparison also indicates that the model can forecast the motion performance of the target, and that the calculated result can also be used as reference in connector and mooring system design.     

Simulation of Seawater Intrusion Range in Coastal Aquifer Using the FEMWATER Model for Disaster Information

The FEMWATER model is a three-dimensional finite element model that can simulate both groundwater flow and mass transport at the same time, and so by using this FEMWATER model seawater intrusion was simulated and the results were compared to observation data. By using the observation data, a conceptual model was made of 3 layers based on the type of soil, and the hydrogeological parameter was selected. There are two types of dispersivities: longitudinal dispersivity and transverse dispersivity. Longitudinal dispersivity was calculated by Xu and Eckstein's method (1995 Xu , M. and Y. Eckstein . 1995 . Use of weighted least-squares method in evaluation of the relationship between dispersivity and field scale . Ground Water 33 ( 6 ): 905 – 908 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the transverse dispersivity was put at 3/10 of the longitudinal dispersivity for the simulation. The electrical conductivity suggested by Freeze and Cherry (1979 Freeze , R. A. and J. A. Cherry , J. A. 1979 . Groundwater . Eaglewood Cliffs , NJ : Prentice-Hall . [Google Scholar]) and the correlation with total dissolved solids, TDS, was used to classify the state of the water. Upon analyzing the depths at 15 m, 30 m, 60 m, and 90 m, occurrence of seawater intrusion near the ground surface was limited to the vicinity of the coastline, but as the depths became deeper, seawater intrusion expanded inland. From these results we can come to the conclusion that in order to prevent seawater intrusion there needs to be sufficient preliminary examination.     

Research on the Influence of Helical Strakes on Dynamic Response of Floating Wind Turbine Platform

The stability of platform structure is the paramount guarantee of the safe operation of the offshore floating wind turbine. The NREL 5MW floating wind turbine is established based on the OC3-Hywind Spar Buoy platform with the supplement of helical strakes for the purpose to analyze the impact of helical strakes on the dynamic response of the floating wind turbine Spar platform. The dynamic response of floating wind turbine Spar platform under wind, wave and current loading from the impact of number, height and pitch ratio of the helical strakes is analysed by the radiation and diffraction theory, the finite element method and orthogonal design method. The result reveals that the helical strakes can effectively inhibit the dynamic response of the platform but enlarge the wave exciting force; the best parameter combination is two pieces of helical strakes with the height of 15%D (D is the diameter of the platform) and the pitch ratio of 5; the height of the helical strake and its pitch ratio have significant influence on pitch response.     

广东沿海赤潮与海洋水文气象关系研究

根据广东沿海发生赤潮的实测资料,重点分析了1997年10月至1998年5月广东沿海赤潮发生与海洋水文气象的关系.结果表明：棕襄藻（Phaecystis cf globosa Scherffel）和三宅裸甲藻（Gynmodiniu mmikimoloi）最大增殖速率的发生条件为：海水温度（以下均是日平均值）21.9℃～26.9℃.盐度26.68～32.01,气温22.9℃～27.1℃、风速0.2-4.3m/s、气压1 002.2～1 011.9hPa、相对湿度83%～94%.认为1997-1998年赤道太平洋上层海洋水温异常变化,导致1998年中国东南沿海水温和气温偏高,风速偏弱,盐度偏低,相对湿度偏高,气压偏低,容易发生赤潮;而降水量多少对1998年广东沿岸海域赤潮形成和发展也有重要影响.发现春夏季当海平气压和盐度出现下降趋势,气温、水温和相对湿度呈上升趋势,风速呈减弱趋势时容易发生赤潮,赤潮发生海域主要位于500 hPa图上的副高北沿,赤潮发生海域均位于槽前.在850hPa图上,华南地区则出现较强的切变线环流.地面天气图上,赤潮发生时在南岭附近有锋面系统存在,海面风速较弱,风向偏东.     

Simulation of the Fate of Faecal Bacteria in Estuarine and Coastal Waters Based on A Fractionated Sediment Transport Model

A two-dimensional depth-integrated numerical model is refined in this paper to simulate the hydrodynamics, graded sediment transport process and the fate of faecal bacteria in estuarine and coastal waters. The sediment mixture is divided into several fractions according to the grain size. A bed evolution model is adopted to simulate the processes of the bed elevation change and sediment grain size sorting. The faecal bacteria transport equation includes enhanced source and sink terms to represent bacterial kinetic transformation and disappearance or reappearance due to sediment deposition or re-suspension. A novel partition ratio and dynamic decay rates of faecal bacteria are adopted in the numerical model. The model has been applied to the turbid water environment in the Bristol Channel and Severn estuary, UK. The predictions by the present model are compared with field data and those by non-fractionated model.