Retrieval of the microphysical properties in a CASP storm by integration of a numerical kinematic model

Abstract

A realistic kinematic model of cloud microphysical processes is presented. Heat and water substances in various phases are transported in the model by specific horizontal and vertical velocities using a semi‐Lagrangian numerical transport scheme. The model is applied to a CASP case study with horizontal and vertical velocities consistent with radiosondes and radar observations. The model is shown to capture the general observed features of the cloud and precipitation fields. In particular, it is shown that for the case studied stratiform clouds extend much higher than the top of detectable precipitation. This numerical model constitutes a useful tool for understanding the life cycle of hydrometeors as a function of their position within the storm system.     

A numerical integration of a two-level quasi-geostrophic model with variable Rossby parameter

Summary Circulation patterns were obtained from a two-level quasi-geostrophic model, in which the Rossby parameter varied with latitude. The initial basic state was characterized by a constant zonal flow at both reference level. The results we re compared with the pattern obtained in a series of experiments with a similar model, in which the Rossby parameter was assumed to be constant. the initial zonal flow in these experiments was assumed in one case to be constant with latitude, in the second casse to have a symmetrical jet centered on the central latitude, and in the thrid case to have its maximum in the southern half of the region. the results of the experiment with a variable Rossby parameter have the closest resemblance to the patterns observed in the real atmospehre. In particular, during the mature stages of the run, the distribution of the zonallyaveraged eddytransport of momentum corresponded quite well to patterns actually observed in the atmosphere.

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Zusammenfassung Aus einem quasi-geostrophischen Modell mit breitenabhängigem rossby-Parameter wurden Zirkulationsformen errechnet. Der Anfangszustand war durc eine konstante zonale Strömung in zwei Niveaus charakteriseirt. Die Resultate wurden mit Zirkulationen verglichen, die in einer Reihe von Experimenten mit einem ähnlichen Modell, in dem aber der Rossby-Parameter konstant angenommen war, erhalten worden waren. In einemk dieser Fälle wurde angenommen, daß die ursprüngliche zonale Strömung breitenunabhängig war, in einem anderen fall wurde angenommen, daß die Strömung in einem symmetrischen Jetstream über eine mittleren Breite konzentriert war, und in einem dritten Fall wurden angenommen, daß die zonale Strömung ihr Maximum in der südlichen Hälfte des Bereiches hatte. Die Resultate des Experiments mit dem veränderlichen Rossby-Parameter haben die meiste Ähnlichkeit mit Zirkulationsformen in der wirklichen Atmosphäre. Insbesondere paßt die Verteilung des zonal gemittelten Momentumtransports in den Reifestadien des Versuchs gut zu den tatsächlich in der Atmosphäre beobachteten Zirkulationsformen.

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Résumé On a calculé les formes de circulation découlant d'un modèle quasigéostrophique dont le paramètres de Rossby dépendaient de la latitude. L'état initial en était caractérisé par un courant zonal constant aux deux niveaux. Lels résultats ont été comparés à ceux d'une série d'essais effectués avec un modèle semblable, mais dans lequel les paramètres de Rossby restaient constants. Dans un de ces cas, on a admis que la circulation zonale initiale ne dépendait pas de la latitude. Dans un deuxième, on a simulé un jet symétriquement à une latitude moyenne. Dans un troisième enfin, on a placè le maximum de la circulation zonale dans la moitié sud de l'espace étudié. Les résultats obtenus en partant des essais basés sur un paramètre de Rossby variable sont les plus semblables aux formes de circulation observées réellement dans l'atmosphère. En particulier, la répartition du transport turbulent de la quantité de mouvement — moyenne zonale calculée au stade de maturité de l'essai — est très voisine des formes de circulation observées réellement dans l'atmosphère.

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With 9 Figures

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The research reported in this document has been sponsored by the Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories under Grant AF EOAR 63-108 through the European Office of Aerospace Reasearch (OAR), United States Air Force.     

强迫耗散非线性系统的局域阻塞流型

本文将正压涡度方程约化为强迫耗散的KdV方程,求得了该方程的一个定常解.这个定常解描述了非绝热加热、耗散、非线性平流和线性频散共同作用所形成的阻塞流型.在确定性初条件、随机性初条件和随机热源扰动的情况下,积分时间大于60天的三组试验表明:该阻塞流型闭合高压中心位置维持定常,而阻高中心强度的演变显示出清晰的准两周或一个月左右的低频振荡现象.     

Interannual variation of Gulf Stream heat transport in a high-resolution model forced by reanalysis data

The variability present in a 1/6th degree Atlantic ocean simulation forced by analysed wind stress and heat flux over a 20-year period is investigated by means of heat transport diagnostics. A section is defined which follows the Gulf Stream and its seaward extension, and transport of heat across this section is analysed to reveal the physical mechanisms responsible for intergyre heat exchanges on a variety of time scales. Heat transport across another section that crosses the Gulf Stream is also diagnosed to reveal the temporal behaviour of the gyre circulation. The Ekman response to wind stress variations accounts for the annual cycle and much of the interannual variability in both measures. For the intergyre heat transports, cancellation by transient-mean flow terms leads to a very weak annual cycle. Transient eddies account for approximately half the total intergyre transport of 0.7 Petawatts. They also account for a significant fraction of the interannual variability, but separate experiments with repeated-annual-cycle forcing indicate that the transient eddy component of the heat transport variability is internally generated. Links between the intergyre transport, the wind-driven gyre circulation, the surface heat budget and the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation are discussed.     

Cognition of feedback loops in a fire-prone social-ecological system

Increasing wildfire severity highlights the need for large-scale shifts in management of fire-prone landscapes. While prior research has focused on cognitive biases, social norms, and institutional disincentives that limit reform, such factors are best understood as components of feedback loops that operate within complex adaptive systems. We evaluated the prominence and function of feedback loops embedded in cognitive maps—beliefs about patterns of causal relationships that drive system dynamics—elicited from a diverse cross-section of stakeholders in a fire-prone region in the U.S. West. We demonstrate that cognition of feedback loops is rare among individuals, but increasingly prominent within aggregations of cognitive maps, which underscores the importance of collaborative decision-making. Our analysis further reveals a bias toward perception of amplifying feedback loops and of loops in which management actions result in desirable outcomes, which points to areas where progress may be made in reforming wildfire risk governance.     

On the Forced Tangentially-Averaged Radial- Vertical Circulation within Vortices Part Ⅰ: Concepts and Equations

将Eliassen建立在平面等压柱坐标系中的径向环流强迫理论（用于研究在摩擦力和非绝热加热过程影响下的静止对称涡旋），推广应用到研究移动非对称气旋或反气旋的径向环流，导出了考虑地球曲面影响的准拉格朗日等压柱坐标系的切向平均径向环流诊断方程，并根据Eliassen的解析解所揭示的涡旋径向环流在涡旋演变中的作用，定 性地讨论了各种热力和动力的作用，这些热力和动力因子除了磨擦力和非绝热加热外，还有平均和涡动形式的惯性力，角动量平流（相当涡度平流），角动量的垂直对流，温度平流，温度的垂直对流（相当绝热加热）等。     

Mean canopy flow in an oak forest and estimation of the foliage profile by a numerical model

Summary The interaction of flow with the canopy structure is shown for an oak forest with hornbean trees (Carpinus betulus) as dense undergrowth using a large sample of 15 min mean profiles for the winter (without leaves) and the summer period (with leaves). The usefulness of the canopy flow index is analysed.To identify the processes involved in the momentum interaction a first-order closure model is interactively used. An approximation of the foliage area density from wind profile measurements is derived.With 7 Figures     

The computational stability of boundary conditions in numerical integration of the vorticity equation

In forecasting large-scale flow patterns by numerical integration of the vorticity equation, errors are permitted near the boundaries of the region of integration. The magnitude of these errors depends upon the nature of the boundary conditions. Three simple types of boundary conditions are examined in this paper, and it is shown that two cases lead to computational instability while one is stable. The degree of instability is estimated in the former cases.

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Zusammenfassung Bei der Vorhersage großräumiger Strömungszustände durch numerische Integration der Vorticity-Gleichung sind an den Grenzen des Integrationsbereiches Fehler gestattet, deren Größe von der Art der Grenzbedingungen abhängig ist. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden drei einfache Fälle von Grenzbedingungen untersucht und es wird gezeigt, daß zwei Fälle zu Instabilität führen, während der dritte stabil ist; der Instabilitätsgrad der ersteren wird abgeschätzt.

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Résumé Lors de la prévision à grande échelle des états de la circulation atmosphérique, au moyen d'intégration numérique de l'équation de la vorticity, des erreurs sont permises aux limites de la région d'intégration; la grandeur de ces erreurs dépend de la nature des conditions de ces limites. L'auteur examine ici trois types simples de conditions des limites; dans deux cas elles conduisent à une instabilité, tandis que le troisième est stable. Pour finir, il estime le degré d'instabilité des deux premiers cas.

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With 5 Figures.

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The work reported here was developed during a visit by the author to the meteorology group at the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, New Jersey.     

A numerical model for estimation of the diurnal fluctuation of the inversion height due to a sea breeze

Vertical profiles of temperature, measured over the sea in the summer near the Eastern coast of the Mediterranean, show significant diurnal fluctuation in the height of the marine inversion. During the day, the inversion moved down and during the night it moved up. The fluctuation was about 250 m. Numerical simulations of the daily fluctuation in the height of the inversion during the summer day shows the following: Over the sea, during daytime, the inversion base sinks 250 m, and during the night, it rises back to its original height. The developing sea breeze during the day causes the air over the sea to move downward adiabatically. At night, the inversion rises mainly due to advection of cool stratified air (including an inversion at 480 m) from a long distance over the sea. Such diurnal fluctuations are observed 100 km off shore. This scale is determined by the scale of the sea breeze. Comparison of some of the model vertical profiles with the temperature profiles measured over the sea show a similar diurnal oscillation. The amplitude of the oscillation is the same.     

论生长季气候寒暖变化与农业

近二、三十年来,北半球广大地区的气候发生了显著的寒暖变化,并对农业生产造成了影响。这就促使人们对气候变化愈来愈关心,竺可桢同志曾根据动植物变迁,冬季冰雪等现象,估算了我国近5000年来冬季温度的变化。在他的方法启示下,本文主要依据春秋季节的物候现象讨论我国历史时期以来生长季长度的变迁及其对农业生产的影响。     

Radiative damping of annual variation in global mean surface temperature: comparison between observed and simulated feedback

The sensitivity of the global climate is essentially determined by the radiative damping of the global mean surface temperature anomaly through the outgoing radiation from the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Using the TOA fluxes of terrestrial and reflected solar radiation obtained from the Earth radiation budget experiment (ERBE), this study estimates the magnitude of the overall feedback, which modifies the radiative damping of the annual variation of the global mean surface temperature, and compare it with model simulations. Although the pattern of the annually varying anomaly is quite different from that of the global warming, the analysis conducted here may be used for assessing the systematic bias of the feedback that operates on the CO₂-induced warming of the surface temperature. In the absence of feedback effect, the outgoing terrestrial radiation at the TOA is approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann’s fourth power of the planetary emission temperature. However, it deviates significantly from the blackbody radiation due to various feedbacks involving water vapor and cloud cover. In addition, the reflected solar radiation is altered by the feedbacks involving sea ice, snow and cloud, thereby affecting the radiative damping of surface temperature. The analysis of ERBE reveals that the radiative damping is weakened by as much as 70% due to the overall effect of feedbacks, and is only 30% of what is expected for the blackbody with the planetary emission temperature. Similar feedback analysis is conducted for three general circulation models of the atmosphere, which was used for the study of cloud feedback in the preceding study. The sign and magnitude of the overall feedback in the three models are similar to those of the observed. However, when it is subdivided into solar and terrestrial components, they are quite different from the observation mainly due to the failure of the models to simulate individually the solar and terrestrial components of the cloud feedback. It is therefore desirable to make the similar comparison not only for the overall feedback but also for its individual components such as albedo- and cloud-feedbacks. Although the pattern of the annually-varying anomaly is quite different from that of global warming, the methodology of the comparative analysis presented here may be used for the identification of the systematic bias of the overall feedback in a model. A proposal is made for the estimation of the best guess value of climate sensitivity using the outputs from many climate models submitted to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change.     

Uncertainty analysis for estimation of landfill emissions and data sensitivity for the input variation

Results of research and practical experience confirm that stabilization of GHG concentrations will require a tremendous effort. One of the sectors identified as a significant source of methane (CH₄) emissions are solid waste disposal sites (SWDS). Landfills are the key source of CH₄ emissions in the emissions inventory of Slovakia, and the actual emission factors are estimated with a high uncertainty level. The calculation of emission uncertainty of the landfills using the more sophisticated Tier 2 Monte Carlo method is evaluated in this article. The software package that works with the probabilistic distributions and their combination was developed with this purpose in mind. The results, sensitivity analysis, and computational methodology of the CH₄ emissions from SWDS are presented in this paper.     

On the problem of air dryness estimation

A new dimensionless parameter is proposed enabling to estimate the aridity of physiographic territories for any spatial and temporal scales. The potential of the use of this parameter is demonstrated by the example of the territory of Uzbekistan.     

一次层状云系水分收支和降水机制的数值研究

对2002年10月18—20日河南省层状云系的水分收支和降水机制用MM5模式模拟的结果表明,河南省域以外的水物质主要通过西和南边界输送到区域内,19日降水主要时段总水物质通量在水平方向上为净流入。对河南省域水汽、水凝物和总水物质的水分平衡等式中各项的估算表明该区域水物质基本达到收支平衡。估算的河南省域总水物质降水效率、凝结率、凝华率和水凝物降水效率及水汽降水效率分别约33.1%、27.7%、13.1%、69.7%和31.1%,总水物质降水效率与水汽降水效率接近是由于参与的水物质总量中水汽占绝大部分。约58.2%以上的冰晶转化为雪,超过82.1%的雪融化,不到11.1%的雪转化为霰,霰粒子几乎完全融化。冰晶通过凝华过程增长。雪主要由冰晶转化产生,凝华增长率比撞冻增长率高得多。雨水由暖云和冷云过程产生和增长,雨水碰并云水量和冰粒子融化量对雨水的贡献相近,云雨自动转化量小。可见,在主要降水时段,降水是由冷云和暖云过程共同产生的。冰粒子凝华增长对雨水的贡献最大超过35%,撞冻增长的贡献最高不足12%,可见水汽对降水粒子增长重要。催化层、冰水混合层和液水层对降水的贡献分别约为15%—27%、45%—50%和23%—38%,表明此"催化-供给"云中冰粒子在冰水混合层的增长对降水的贡献相当大。     

Rain rate estimation from a synergetic use of SSM/I, AVHRR and meso-scale numerical model data

Summary In this paper a retrieval technique for estimating rainfall rates is introduced. The novel feature of this technique is the combination of two satellite radiometers — the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) — with mesoscale weather prediction model data. This offers an adjustment of the model atmospheres to reality which is necessary for calculating brightness temperatures that can be compared with microwave satellite measurements.In sensitivity studies it was found that the estimation of precipitation is determined to a high degree by the particle size distribution of rain and snow, especially by the size distribution of solid hydrometeors. These studies also reveal the influence of the knowledge of the correct cloud coverage inside a SSM/I pixel and the importance of using a realistic temperature profile instead of using standard atmospheres.The retrieval technique is based on radiative transfer calculations using the model of Kummerow et al. (1989). The algorithm consists of two parts: First Guess (FG) brightness temperatures for the SSM/I frequencies are generated as a function of the cloud top height and the cloud coverage, derived from AVHRR data and predictions from a meso-scale model. The rainfall rate of different types of clouds containing raindrops, ice particles and coexisting ice and water hydrometeors is then calculated as a function of the cloud top height. As an example, a strong convective rain event over the western part of Europe and over the Alps is taken to evaluate the performance of this technique. Good agreement with radar data from the German Weather Service was achieved. Compared to statistical rainfall algorithms, the current algorithm shows a better performance of detecting rainfall areas.With 12 Figures     

Dynamics of decadal variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre: a stochastically forced oscillator

Internal variability of the Atlantic subpolar gyre is investigated in a 600 years control simulation of a comprehensive coupled climate model. The subpolar gyre shows irregular oscillations of decadal time scale with most spectral power between 15 and 20 years. Positive and negative feedback mechanisms act successively on the circulation leading to an internal oscillation. This involves periodically enhanced deep convection in the subpolar gyre center and intermittently enhanced air-sea thermal coupling. As a result, anomalies of the large-scale atmospheric circulation can be transferred to the ocean on the ocean’s intrinsic time scale, exciting the oscillator stochastically. A detailed understanding of oscillatory mechanisms of the ocean and their sensitivity to atmospheric forcing holds considerable potential for decadal predictions as well as for the interpretation of proxy data records.     

On the applicability of numerical mass-consistent wind field models

A three-dimensional nonhydrostatic model is used to calculate the complex wind field in a coastal and a hilly region. These results are used to test the applicability of a mass-consistent wind model for different numbers of input wind data. While for the coastal area the mass consistent model calculates reasonable results even for a small number of input wind data, this number increases significantly in complex terrain.     

Wind energy potential assessment using Weibull distribution with various numerical estimation methods: a case study in Mersing and Port Dickson,Malaysia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In this study, the Weibull distribution with various numerical estimation methods is utilized for the assessment of wind energy potential in Mersing and Port...