Forecasting space–time variability of wave heights in the Bay of Bengal: a genetic algorithm approach

The present work employs a genetic algorithm to carry out wave height forecasting in the Bay of Bengal. The use of empirical orthogonal function analysis allows the spatial extending of the forecast to the entire basin. The chaotic nature of the process limits the horizon of usable forecasts to 48 h in advance. Statistical evaluation of the quality of forecast leads to encouraging results. A major advantage of this method is that, once the forecast equations are derived, they can be used directly without the necessity of having a numerical wave model as an intermediate step.     

The spreading of eutrophication in the eastern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia,northern Baltic Sea – An analysis in time and space

In the Baltic Sea, the Gulf of Bothnia is the only sub-basin with only minor effects of eutrophication mainly due to physical factors. Most evaluations of the state of the Gulf of Bothnia are based on offshore investigations. In the present study the coastal zone of the eastern Gulf of Bothnia is analysed. Long-term data (1980–2007) of total nitrogen and phosphorus, turbidity and oxygen are analysed using principal component analysis (PCA) for spatial and temporal patterns in the trophic situation. The coastal zone is divided into six regions: inner and outer areas of the Bothnian Sea and the Quark, and the outer areas of the southern and northern Bothnian Bay. The results show a degradation of water quality from north to south, and from outer to inner coastal areas. Eutrophication changes from an almost non-existing problem in the Bothnian Bay in the north to clear signs of nutrient over-enrichment in the Bothnian Sea. This shows that even if eutrophication in the Gulf of Bothnia is not serious, the increasing trends in nutrient levels should be seen as warning signals for the future, and remedies to combat eutrophication should be taken rapidly.     

CHGS method for numerical forecasting of typhoon waves——Ⅰ. Spectrum of waves in growing phase

Owing to the fact that the wind speed and direction of typhoon vary rapidly with time and space in typhoon fetch; the nearer to the typhoon eye the greater the wind velocity, and the shorter the wind fetch the smaller the wind time,as a result,the more difficult for the wind wave to fully grow. Hence.in typhoon wave numerical calculation it is impossible to use the model for a fully grown wave spectrum. Lately, the author et at. presented a CHGS method for numerical forecasting of typhoon waves, where a model for the growing wave spectrum was set up (see Eq. (2) in the text). The model involves a parameter indicating the growing degree of wind wave, i. e. ,the mean wave age β. When βvalue is small, the wave energy is chiefly concentrated near the peak frequency, so that the spectral peak gets high and steep; with the increase of β the spectral shape gradually gets lower and gentler; when β=Ⅰ, the wave fully grows, the growing spectrum becomes a fully grown P-M spectrum. The model also shows a spect     

Real‐time failure detection in the carrier phase measurements of GPS by robust and conventional kalman state estimates

Among the fastest‐growing applications of high‐precision GPS positioning are those which are kinematic in nature. Carrier phase‐based GPS positioning of a moving antenna—for example, attached to a ship, an aircraft, or a land vehicle—is now commonplace. Recent software innovations make use of advanced ambiguity resolution “on the fly” and real‐time kinematic data processing algorithms to emulate the ease of operation of conventional differential GPS (DGPS) based on transmitted pseudo‐range corrections. However, as much higher accuracy must now be assured compared to DGPS, greater attention must be focused on the quality control aspects of GPS positioning. This study describes two methods for detecting failures or changes of small magnitude in real time in GPS measurements. Examination of the overlap or disjointedness of robust and conventional confidence intervals and studentized normal variates have been used as failure detection tools. These methods are based on testing the performance of the differences between the conventional (nonrobust) Kalman state estimates and the robust Kalman filler estimates. Detection of cycle slips in carrier phase data, outliers in phase rate or in code ranges, or any other type of disorder in the measurements of the GPS system can be addressed with these failure detection methods. Application and evaluation of the algorithms has been carried out using raw carrier‐phase and phase‐rate GPS measurements. It has been demonstrated that these failure detection tools provide powerful and efficient diagnostics for detecting small changes in the measurements of the GPS system.     

Optimal identification of potential-radiation hydrodynamics for moored floating structures—a new general approach in state space

In this paper, a new state-space model of the potential-radiation hydrodynamics in moored ocean engineering floating structures and its parameter identification are presented. The raw data for this goal are the added mass and potential-damping matrices in frequency-discrete domain.In a preliminary study of existing approaches in the literature, two mathematical models and their estimation are comparatively analysed in detail. These served in the development of the new approach that shares certain main advantages of the previous approaches.The model is identified in a least-squares sense using a weighted norm and a free control parameter to accomplish a trade-off between quality and stability. This reduces numerical instability problems and also keeps the analytical and computational benefits of a parametric state-space model. The model can be conveniently expressed in any usual canonical form in state space.The application of the model acceptably accurate reproduces the behaviour of the potential-radiation hydrodynamic forces in time. Case studies involving a semisubmersible and buoys are shown to demonstrate the features of the proposed approach.     

Retrieval of total suspended matter from MODIS 250?m imagery in the Bohai Sea of China

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua and Terra satellites have unique advantages for monitoring coastal waters, owing to their high spatial resolution (250?m), short revisit period (1–2?days), and freedom from cost. An empirical retrieval model for concentration of total suspended matter (TSM) has been developed based on a statistical analysis of field surveys of TSM and remote sensing reflectance (R _rs) in the Bohai Sea of China. A robust linear relationship was established between the equivalent remote sensing reflectance (converting ASD-measured R _rs by spectral response function) in the 620–670?nm band (band 1) of MODIS and the concentration of TSM (R ²?=?0.95; n?=?27; RMS?=?0.512) acquired in August and September 2008. The model was validated via in situ measurements in September 2009, resulting in a mean relative error of 12.9?%. Then, the corresponding MODIS products of monthly average concentration of TSM were produced from January to December 2009. The distribution characteristics of TSM in the Bohai Sea of China are closely related with the spatial pattern and seasonal variability. This study demonstrates that the moderately high resolution of MODIS 250?m data is available for monitoring the transport and fate of materials in relatively smaller bodies of water.     

Catch share programs in the Western Pacific—A solution in search of a problem?

The movement toward catch shares by NOAA Fisheries and fisheries managers worldwide responds to dysfunctional fisheries plagued by a host of interrelated problems including radically shortened seasons, a race to fish, supply gluts, lowered product quality, increased bycatch, safety issues, excess capacity, and lack of profitability. However, the NOAA Catch Shares Policy recognizes that catch shares are not appropriate for every fishery, and others have agreed that the success of catch shares programs depends on their fit with ecological, economic, and social characteristics. This article describes the characteristics of the Hawaii-based deep-set longline fleet, identified by NOAA Fisheries as a possible candidate for catch shares because it operates under a bigeye tuna quota instituted by the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission. One of the main concerns in the fishery is the potential for closing during the holiday season, a culturally important time for fish consumption in Hawaii. An evaluation of the fishery suggests that many of the problems leading to development of catch shares programs in other fisheries are not present, but that some warning signs exist which could be addressed by catch share programs or other management alternatives.     

What do egg size distributions in marine invertebrates tell us about validity of fecundity‐time models?

An early mathematical model of egg size evolution in marine invertebrates (American Naturalist, 1973a, 107 , 353) traded fecundity against development time and resulted in a U‐shaped optimality curve suggesting that only extremes of egg sizes should be evolutionary stable. It was later suggested that the model predicts a bimodal distribution of egg sizes and therefore can be tested by examining histograms of egg sizes. More recent fecundity‐time models (American Naturalist, 1997, 150 , 48; American Naturalist, 2000, 156 , 175) came up with predictions of intermediate optimal egg sizes; however, comparisons of optimality curves with histograms of egg sizes remained central to model testing. Here the question whether the bimodality assumption has any basis has been addressed theoretically. Simulation modeling and analysis show that egg size distributions generally do not match the optimality curves produced by fecundity‐time models and that the shape of predicted frequency distributions depends on both the optimality curve and other model parameters. Therefore, egg size frequency distributions alone cannot be used for model testing.     

Recent environmental changes and filamentous algal mats in shallow bays on the Swedish west coast — A result of climate change?

Over the last thirty years, many shallow estuarine bays, located in Scandinavian sheltered coastal environments, have been subject to the increased dominance of opportunistic species of filamentous green algae, oxygen deficiency in bottom waters and the alteration of flora and fauna. Human-induced eutrophication has been held responsible for these recent changes, but from this study the importance of climatic factors emerges. This research is based on the analysis of sediment cores from 8 shallow areas (d < 50 cm) along the Bohuslän archipelago, Swedish west coast, and focuses on their recent (< 100 years) sedimentary evolution. Evidence of hydrodynamic change was observed in the sediments, where modern fining-upward sequences contrast with the expected coarsening upward model due to ongoing land uplift. Heavy metal concentrations from modern pollution and ¹⁴C dating of mollusk shells and eelgrass roots provided the age control, and allowed to place these changes within the last three decades. Data were compared with historical meteorological records (seasonal warming, modification of dominant winds and upwelling and reduction of sea-ice), and a clear connection emerged between the environmental changes and variations in the North Atlantic Ocean weather pattern. The increase of winter temperature and reduction of reworking winter sea-ice in these sheltered bays increased the storing of nutrients in the sediments and the turnover of organic matter, favoring the early growth stage of opportunistic algae in the most sheltered areas of the archipelago. This, together with human-induced modifications (overfishing and eutrophication), increased the possibility of opportunistic explosions, which in turn determined a reduced water exchange, the increased deposition of fine sediments and organic matter and evolving hypoxic conditions.     

Is maturity index an efficient tool to assess the effects of the physical disturbance on the marine nematode assemblages?—A critical interpretation of disturbance-induced maturity successions in some study cases in Maldives

Maturity index(MI), based on nematode life strategies, has been proposed in 1990 to assess the possible variations of the terrestrial and freshwater nematode assemblages induced by anthropogenic activities. It was subsequently applied also to marine ecosystems and, even if comparatively not yet very popular, it offers a good method to assess the ecological quality in relation to a wide range of anthropogenic drivers. However, few data are available on its response to physical stress, a key factor especially in the coastal areas. In this study, marine nematode genera from two study cases carried out in Maldives are used to test both MI and life strategy traits(i.e., c-p classes) for detecting the effects of physical disturbance. The results confirm that nematodes are well adapted to physical stress showing a general high rate of recovery. C-p scaling and MI did not seem to be appropriate for revealing this disturbance type probably because there are no empirical evidences on the life strategy of several genera, and a possible differential response to various disturbance types may be hypothesized.