岩溶含水介质渗透性参数空间最优估计的原理与方法

本文着重阐述区域化变量理论和克立格法在岩溶含水介质渗透性分析中的应用，并对岩溶含水介质渗透性参数空间最优估计的方法进行了探讨。     

论空间最优估计理论在煤矿地质工程中运用

叙述了空间最优估计的理论基础、实现步骤及其特点,在分析煤矿地质工程区域变量特点基础上,论述了空间最优估计理论在煤矿地质工程运用的可行性及远大前景,并对其存在的问题进行总结,提出了一些建议与展望.     

两种方法在地下水位估值中的应用

对于许多区域水资源问题,用数值方法进行潜水水流模拟时,需要给出每个节点上地下水位值.本文首先简单介绍了趋势面方法,然后着重阐述了泛克里格方法的基本原理及它们在地下水位估值中的应用,通过比较两种方法的计算结果可以得出泛克里格方法是进行地下水位估值的空间最优估计方法.     

含水层渗透性空间分布的指示克立格估值

详细介绍了指示克立格估值计算的理论和方法。以指示变异函数为基本工具分析了华北某地区第四系含水层渗透性空间分布的结构特征,结果表明该地区含水层渗透性存在明显的各向异性特征。水平方向上,X轴方向的相关性较Y轴方向的好,Z轴的相关性最差。用指示克立格法对未采样点处进行估值,估值结果显示含水层渗透性由山前向滨海逐渐变低,在垂直方向上,渗透性变化不明显,浅部比深部略好;同时给出了估计精度,并认为对估计精度不高的区域可通过增加适当的工程加以控制。最后用交叉验证法对估值结果进行了检验,证明建立的指示变异函数模型合理且估值效果较好。这一实际应用表明指示克立格法可以很好地描述第四系含水层渗透性的空间分布规律。     

岩土参数的空间变异性分析

岩土参数具有空间变异性和不确定性,本文将岩土参数视为具有随机性和结构性的区域化变量,利用区域化变量理论和地质统计方法分析上海地基土有代表性的抗剪强度指标的空间变异特性。结果表明该方法是可行的。     

瞬变电磁技术在煤层底板含水层注浆改造中的应用

煤层底板含水层注浆改造技术可以彻底根治底板水害。利用瞬变电磁技术探测煤层底板含水层的赋水性特征,确定工作面内注浆改造重点区域,指导钻孔布置,并在底板改造后检验注浆改造效果。其在焦作矿区的应用效果明显。     

老厂矿区煤层气资源的地质统计学研究

使用地质统计学的经典方法，以区域化变量为基础，变异函数为基本工具，在空间分布上既考虑随机性又考虑结构性，对煤层气地质储量进行克里格估计。并以当今国际上科学界颇具影响力软件MATLAB为平台，开发克里格计算软件包KSP，对老厂四勘区煤层气数据的地质统计实证分析得到很好的结果，实现整个计算任务。     

基于分层标资料的天津滨海地区含水层沉降特征分析

分层标监测体系是地面沉降的主要监测手段,通过对天津滨海地区分层标监测资料以及同期不同含水层的水位资料的分析,可以得出各含水层当前沉降状态,以及水位变化与沉降量之间的关系,从而制定更有效的沉降治理措施及方案。     

浅层含水层导水系数空间变异分析——以河套平原呼和浩特市为例

水文地质参数空间变异性是影响地下水水流及溶质运移不确定性的主要因素。呼和浩特市浅层地下水导水系数空间变异研究对导水系数等值线的绘制与校正有实际意义。剔除异常值后,利用地质统计方法研究区域、N-S向、E-W向剖面的空间分布,利用GS+对其空间变异结构进行分析,得出以下结论:导水系数在区域上属于强变异程度,N-S向剖面属于强变异程度,E-W向剖面上属于中等变异程度;导水系数在区域上、N-S向剖面、E-W向剖面均近似服从对数正态分布;区域上变程为2910m,E-W向剖面变程为3729.92m,N-S向剖面变程为2478.74m。     

矿业地质统计学在我国的应用现状及对影响克格估计的若干…

地质统计学已用地我国多个矿床的储量计算，变程Ａ是一个很稳健的变异参数，块金Ｃ０，基台Ｃ以及估计邻域的大小较大地影响着克拉格估计。     

Water supply potential and optimal exploitation capacity of karst aquifer systems

The management of groundwater flow systems in karst regions appears, at present, to be the most important procedure for solving water deficiency problems during periods of low rainfall. Faced with a lack of data for characterizing the water supply potential of karst aquifers, analyses of spring hydrographs may provide valuable indirect information regarding the structure of karst hydrogeological systems. To estimate the optimal exploitation capacities of karstic sources, a stochastic-conceptual approach was applied in case studies from the Serbian karst. Water supply potentials were initially evaluated on the basis of groundwater budgets. Further steps towards defining optimal “exploitable” regimes included analyses of storage changes in karst water reservoirs under natural conditions and calculation of the potential expansion of currently tapped sources. The results obtained through these analyses are a significant contribution to feasibility studies and aid in the avoidance of problems of overexploitation.     

An optimal procedure for identifying parameter structure and application to a confined aquifer

This study applies an optimal procedure to identify the spatial distribution of groundwater hydraulic conductivity for a confined aquifer in north Taiwan. The parameter structure is determined by the number of zones, zonation pattern, and an uniform hydraulic conductivity associated with each zone. The proposed optimal procedure uses the Voronoi diagram in describing zonation and applies simulated annealing algorithm to optimize its pattern and associated hydraulic conductivity. Three criteria are defined to stop the searching process, including the residual error, the parameter uncertainty, and the structure error. Observation hydraulic heads in years 2000 and 2001 and hydraulic conductivity value from pumping tests are used. The results show that the parameter structure with five zones conforms to the three criteria and, thus, is recommended for future groundwater simulation for the study site. Different heuristic algorithms may also play the role of simulated annealing to optimize the parameter structure. However, which optimization algorithm is more efficient is not discussed and requires further study.     

A dynamic programming model for optimal planning of aquifer storage and recovery facility operations

Aquifer storage recovery (ASR) is an innovative technology with the potential to augment dwindling water resources in regions experiencing rapid growth and development. Planning and design of ASR systems requires quantifying how much water should be stored and appropriate times for storage and withdrawals within a planning period. A monthly scale planning model has been developed in this study to derive optimal (least cost) long-term policies for operating ASR systems and is solved using a recursive deterministic dynamic programming approach. The outputs of the model include annual costs of operation, the amount of water to be imported each month as well as the schedule for storage and extraction. A case study modeled after a proposed ASR system for Mustang Island and Padre Island service areas of the city of Corpus Christi is used to illustrate the utility of the developed model. The results indicate that for the assumed baseline demands, the ASR system is to be kept operational for a period of 4 months starting from May through August. Model sensitivity analysis indicated that increased seasonal shortages can be met using ASR with little additional costs. For the assumed cost structure, a 16% shortage increased the costs by 1.6%. However, the operation time of ASR increased from 4 to 8 months. The developed dynamic programming model is a useful tool to assess the feasibility of evaluating the use of ASR systems during regional-scale water resources planning endeavors.     

Approaches to optimal aquifer management and intelligent control in a multiresolutional decision support system

Despite remarkable new developments in stochastic hydrology and adaptations of advanced methods from operations research, stochastic control, and artificial intelligence, solutions of complex real-world problems in hydrogeology have been quite limited. The main reason is the ultimate reliance on first-principle models that lead to complex, distributed-parameter partial differential equations (PDE) on a given scale. While the addition of uncertainty, and hence, stochasticity or randomness has increased insight and highlighted important relationships between uncertainty, reliability, risk, and their effect on the cost function, it has also (a) introduced additional complexity that results in prohibitive computer power even for just a single uncertain/random parameter; and (b) led to the recognition in our inability to assess the full uncertainty even when including all uncertain parameters. A paradigm shift is introduced: an adaptation of new methods of intelligent control that will relax the dependency on rigid, computer-intensive, stochastic PDE, and will shift the emphasis to a goal-oriented, flexible, adaptive, multiresolutional decision support system (MRDS) with strong unsupervised learning (oriented towards anticipation rather than prediction) and highly efficient optimization capability, which could provide the needed solutions of real-world aquifer management problems. The article highlights the links between past developments and future optimization/planning/control of hydrogeologic systems.

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Resumen  A pesar de nuevos avances notables en hidrología estocástica y las adaptaciones de métodos avanzados de investigación de operaciones, control estocástico, e inteligencia artificial, las soluciones de problemas complejos del mundo real en hidrogeología han sido bastante limitadas. La principal razón es la dependencia definitiva en modelos de primer-principio que conducen a ecuaciones parciales diferencias de parámetro distribuido complejas (PDE) a una escala dada. Mientras que la adición de incertidumbre, y por lo tanto, estocasticidad o aleatoriedad ha incrementado la profundidad y resaltado relaciones importantes entre la incertidumbre, confiabilidad, riesgo, y su efecto en la función de costo, la adición también ha permitido (a) introducir complejidad adicional que resulta en potencia computacional excesiva aún para un solo parámetro incierto/aleatorio; y (b) llevar a reconocer nuestra discapacidad para evaluar la incertidumbre completa aún cuando se incluyen todos los parámetros inciertos. Se introduce un cambio paradigmático: una adaptación de nuevos métodos de control de inteligencia que relajará la dependencia en PDE estocásticas, rígidas y de uso computacional intensivo, cambiando el énfasis hacia un sistema de apoyo de decisiones de propósitos múltiples (MRDS) adaptivo, flexible, y orientado a objetivos con fuerte aprendizaje sin supervisión (orientado a la anticipación más que a la predicción) con fuerte capacidad de optimización eficiente, lo cual podría aportar las soluciones necesarias a los problemas de manejo reales con los acuíferos. El artículo resalta los vínculos entre desarrollos pasados y control/planificación/optimización futura de sistemas hidrogeológicos.

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Résumé  Malgré de remarquables nouveaux développements en hydrologie stochastique ainsi que de remarquables adaptations de méthodes avancées pour les opérations de recherche, le contrôle stochastique, et lintelligence artificielle, solutions pour les problèmes complexes en hydrogéologie sont restées assez limitées. La principale raison est lultime confiance en les modèles qui conduisent à des équations partielles complexes aux paramètres distribués (PDE) à une échelle donnée. Alors que laccumulation dincertitudes et, par conséquent, la stockasticité ou laléat a augmenté la perspicacité et a mis en lumière dimportantes relations entre lincertitude, la fiabilité, le risque, et leur effet sur les coûts de fonctionnement, il a également (a) introduit une complexité additionnelle qui résulte dans un pouvoir prohibitif des moyens de calcul informatique même pour une simple estimation de lincertitude; et (b) a conduit a une reconnaissance de notre manque daptitude à maîtriser lincertitude totale même en introduisant tous les paramètres connus de lincertitude. La représentation du changement est introduit: une adaptation de nouvelles méthodes de contrôle intelligent qui va relâcher la dépendance à la rigidité des algorithmes, aux calculs informatiques intensifs, à la PDE stockastique, et qui modifiera lemphase entre les MRDS—systèmes interactifs daide à la décision de multiresolutionelle (flexibles, adaptables et orientables selon les objectifs)—avec un fort apprentissage non (orienté vers lanticipation plutôt que la prédiction), et une capacité doptimisation efficiente très élevée, qui pourrait apporter le besoin de solutions pour la modélisation des problèmes de management des aquifères réalistes. Cet article met en lumière les liens entre les développements passés et les futurs moyens doptimisation, de gestion et de contrôle des systèmes hydrogéologiques.

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Spatial and temporal variation of uranium in a shallow weathered rock aquifer in southern India

Uranium occurs naturally in groundwater and surface water. The objective of this study is to understand the causes for the occurrence of uranium and its spatio-temporal variation in groundwater in a part of Nalgonda district, Andhra Pradesh, south India. Uranium deposits occur in the southeastern part of this area. Groundwater samples were collected from 44 wells every two months from March 2008 to January 2009. The samples were analyzed for pH, ORP and uranium concentration. The uranium concentration in groundwater varies from 0.2 ppb to a maximum of 68 ppb with a mean of 18.5 ppb. About 21.6% of the samples were above the drinking water limit of 30 ppb set by USEPA. The uranium concentration varied with fluctuation in groundwater level, pH and ORP. Uranium concentration in groundwater changes depending on lithology, degree of weathering and rainfall recharge.     

黄河下游床面形态判别方法探讨

基于床面形态控制数理论,结合已有水槽试验研究成果,分析了床面形态控制数与不同床面形态的对应关系,提出了包括沙粒弗劳德数及相对水深(水深与泥沙中值粒径之比, 下同)的床面形态参数, 论述了简化床面形态控制数的计算方法及适用范围,研究了床面形态控制数与床面形态参数之间的相互关系及适用性;结合黄河下游床面形态运动特征,建立了床面形态判别方法。研究认为床面形态控制数能够反映高、低能态区的水流阻力特征;床面形态控制数与床面形态参数之间的关系,既适用于室内水槽试验也适用于天然河流;建立的黄河下游床面形态判别方法,得到了野外实测资料的初步检验,能够用于黄河下游不同能态区床面形态的判别。     

下辽河平原南部明化镇组含水层咸水体运移规律

本文针对辽河油田明化镇组含水层中上部赋存的咸水体在区域上的分布、平面和垂向的运移特征进行研究。依据油井和水井的测井曲线,平面运移特征通过模型进行咸水体边缘质点追踪,以确定不同地段咸水体平面运移速率。垂向运移特征系根据油田勘探开发过程中的钻孔分布特点,通过对各地区,不同时间段钻孔测井资料中咸水体埋深变化比较,确定不同地区咸水体的垂向运移速率。     

Investigation of CO2 behavior and study on design of optimal injection into Gorae-V aquifer

This study presents the Bottom-hole pressure (BHP) behavior with different wettabilities and the optimal design scheme to effectively inject CO₂ into the Gorae-V aquifer. As a result, the injection rate and injectivity were increased as the wettability condition became more water-wet. However, the more wettability condition becomes water-wet, the more the ultimate CO₂ injection volume decreases. When the injectivity was 346 ton/day/Mpa at the Gorae-V aquifer, the aquifer can sustain CO₂ injection at a rate of 2,425 tons per day over this time period. A design for a complete CCS system was developed based on the existing off-shore pipeline in combination with new on-shore CO₂ transport infrastructure, and a pressure of 12.8 MPa is required at the CO₂ source to maintain this injection rate.