D-INSAR技术在大范围滑坡监测中的应用

对大面积自然山区进行高精度的滑坡灾害监测一直是我国及其它地质灾害频发国家的一个重要课题,尚未得到很好解决。D-INSAR技术是近年来微波遥感发展的一个重要方向,理论上可以以厘米甚至更高的精度对连续大面积的微小地面活动进行监测,被认为是极具应用前景的滑坡灾害监测技术。为此以应用D-INSAR技术对大范围的自然滑坡进行监测和预警为目的,详细地推导了D-INSAR技术监测形变的原理公式并介绍了方法和数据处理流程,在全面回顾该技术在国内外滑坡监测中的应用现状和实例的基础上,分析了D-INSAR技术在滑坡监测中的优势及问题点,并结合最新技术进展提出了解决方案,认为应该综合利用先进地球探测及数字处理技术与D-INSAR技术相结合来克服D-INSAR技术中的问题点。具体介绍了永久散射体（PS）技术、小基线子集（SBAS）技术、GPS技术及基于地面的LISA技术等,并对这几种技术与D-INSAR技术的结合进行了探讨,使其达到对滑坡更有效的监测。     

Kriging法在区域滑坡危险性评价中的应用

区域滑坡危险性评价是进行区域滑坡风险性研究的基础.由于滑坡演变机制的复杂性,使得目前基于独立分析各因素对滑坡影响的“白箱”型评价模式具有一定风险性,同时这类评价方法要求对滑坡演变和研究区地质地理背景进行非常细致的监测和调查.为了克服这些问题,文章提出了一种基于Kriging插值理论的“黑箱”型评价方法.在利用该方法对历史滑坡点的规模进行评价的基础上,利用Kriging插值法获取研究区的滑坡危险性区划,并以四川省苍溪县为例,验证了运用该方法进行区域滑坡危险性评价的可行性.     

基于GIS的中国滑坡灾害风险分析

随着我国减灾防灾工作的深入开展,对大范围区域性的滑坡灾害进行风险评估势在必行。GIS技术为滑坡灾害在不同模型条件下的风险评估提供了有效的技术支持。经过多年研究,作者开发出了基于MapGIS软件平台的滑坡灾害风险分析系统。在该系统支持下,采用信息量模型和专家打分模型对我国全国范围内的滑坡灾害进行危险性分析,进而进行区域社会经济易损性分析,并在此基础上进行最终的滑坡灾害风险评估。分析结果具有一定的指导意义和实用价值。     

Cost assessment of losses due to recent reactivation of Kaliasaur landslide on National Highway 58 in Garhwal Himalaya

National Highway (NH) 58 is one of the important and the major lifelines, which connects Uttarakhand state with rest of the country and linked with its socioeconomic progress. Uttarakhand, being one of the major tourist and pilgrimage hubs of the country, highways are preferred to be consistently maintained and trafficable. However, due to frequent landslide occurrences, particularly during monsoon months (July to September), the highway is poorly maintained. There are hundreds of landslides along the NH 58 starting from Rishikesh (the foot of the Garhwal Himalaya) to Badrinath, the holy shrine of India covering a distance of 320 km. Many landslides are historic, 4–5 decades old and recurring every year during monsoon. Kaliasaur landslide (147 km), Pakhi landslide (250 km), Tangni landslide (254 km), Patalganga landslide (256 km), and Lambagarh landslide (302 km) are a few among the critical ones. Kaliasaur landslide that is one of the most critical landslides recurring for over 9 decades at 147 km on National Highway 58 (from Haridwar) has been selected for the study. It has reportedly occurred first time in 1920 and since then recurring at regular intervals, causing huge socioeconomic losses involving both direct and indirect costs. Previous records of any attempt to estimate the direct (rehabilitation cost, cost on prevention and control) or indirect cost (expenses due to detouring, cost of productive time loss, loss of tourism, and loss in business) have not been found. As a result, the accurate economical impact of landslide on society is very roughly estimated. Even if the estimates of indirect losses are roughly estimated, added with some direct losses will provide the basis for developing the right strategies for proper mitigation and management of landslides. In this paper, an effort is made, first time, to examine the effects of Kaliasaur landslide on socioeconomics of the region. Since the direct losses on property damaged could not be estimated due to lack of recorded documentation, this study mainly focuses on the indirect losses on detouring during the damage/blockage of the highway and some significant direct losses such as restoration work, loss of lives, and damage of vehicles.     

贝叶斯信息标准在滑坡因子敏感性分析中的应用

滑坡因子敏感性分析是滑坡预测和治理的重要前提。以巫山县新址西区作为试验区,运用滑坡影响因素与历史滑坡之间建立的Logistic回归模型,通过贝叶斯信息标准进行模型优劣程度的比较,以期得出本区滑坡因子的敏感程度。设计了逐个加入影响因子进行非嵌套模型的优劣程度对比的试验方法。试验区滑坡因子敏感程度计算结果排队依次为：岩性、高程、距有影响构造线距离、坡度、坡向、坡形。试验为区域斜坡稳定性评价提供了一种新的、可靠的方法。     

人工神经网络在铀矿测井解释中的应用

本文探讨了运用人工神经网络方法完成铀矿测井解释任务的有关问题。采用了改进的BP算法，提高了网络收敛速度，优化了网络结构。研究使用了一种基于统计的学习样本生成方法，提高了样本的质量。实际应用网络进行岩性识别和孔隙度预测，取得了令人满意的结果。     

滑坡易发性危险性风险评价例析

从易发性、危险性、风险的概念入手,依据国际上流行和通用的滑坡风险评价与管理理论,分析了易发性评价的内容,包括易发性评价到危险性评价需要增加的评价要素,以及从危险性评价到风险评价需要增加的评价要素,阐明了这三种评价之间的联系和区别。并通过延安宝塔区的滑坡易发性、危险性和风险的评价与区划具体说明三者的做法和结果。     

Dendrogeomorphic reconstruction of past landslide reactivation with seasonal precision: the Bois Noir landslide, southeast French Alps

The purpose of this study was to reconstruct spatiotemporal patterns of past landslide reactivation in a forested area of the Barcelonnette Basin (Bois Noir landslide, Southern French Alps). Analysis of past events was based on tree ring series from 79 heavily affected Mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Mill. ex Mirb) trees growing near or next to the landslide body. Dendrogeomorphic analysis focused on the presence of compression wood and growth reductions, with the first reaction being used for a dating of past reactivations with seasonal precision. A total of 151 growth disturbances were identified in the samples representing eight different stages of reactivation of the landslide body between 1874 and 2008. The spatiotemporal accuracy of the reconstruction is confirmed by historical records from neighboring sites and by aerial photographs. The onset of compression wood formation allows identifying five stages of landslide reactivation during the dormant season or the very beginning of the growing season of trees, i.e., between early October and late May, and three stages toward the end of the growth period. Monthly rainfall data from the HISTALP database demonstrate that the rainfall during four out of the eight reactivations are characterized by summer rainfall totals (July?CAugust) exceeding 200?mm, pointing to the important role of summer rainstorms in the triggering of events at the Bois Noir landslide body.     

New,simplified and improved interpretation of the Vaiont landslide mechanics

Both the occurrence and behaviour of the Vaiont landslide have not been satisfactorily explained previously because of difficulties arising from the assumption that the failure surface was ‘chair’ shaped. It is now known that there was no ‘chair’, which means that the 1963 landslide could not have been a reactivated ancient landslide because the residual strength of the clay interbeds would have been insufficient for stability prior to 1963. Furthermore, the moderately translational geometry reduces the influence of reservoir-induced groundwater and hence of submergence. Standard stability analyses now show that prior to 1960, the average shear strength must have significantly exceeded the peak shear strength of the clay interbeds known to have formed the majority of the failure surface. Three-dimensional stability analyses confirm these results and show that at the time of the first significant movements in 1960, the rising reservoir level had a negligible effect on the Factor of Safety. According to these results, the Vaiont landslide was most likely initiated by pore water pressures associated with transient rainfall-induced ‘perched’ groundwater above the clay layers, in combination with a smaller than hitherto assumed effect of reservoir impounding, then developed by brittle crack propagation within the clay beds, thus displaying progressive failure. Further, very heavy rainfall accelerated the process, possibly due to reservoir-induced groundwater impeding drainage of the rainwater, until the limestone beds at the northeast margin failed. With the shear strength suddenly reduced to residual throughout, the entire mass was released and was able to accelerate as observed.     

分频解释技术在岩性储层描述中的应用

基于短时窗离散傅立叶变换或最大熵方法的分频解释技术,实现了在频率域内对扫描频率所对应的调谐振幅进行分析,排除了时间域内不同频率成份的相互干扰,从而可得到高于传统分辨率的解释结果。分频解释技术在岩性储层描述中对河道﹑断层和岩性边界的识别以及对沉积相及沉积旋回的分析等方面取得良好的地质效果,在岩性储层油气勘探中具有广泛的应用前景。     

平衡剖面技术在地震资料解释中的应用

地震资料解释的正确与否直接关系到储层预测的结果与精度,所以平衡剖面解释作为一种辅助手段,对地震解释的多解性起到很好地制约效果,并为其定量化解释研究上开辟了道路。介绍了平衡剖面技术的基本原理和解释机理;以依奇克里油田阿依库木齐剖面为例,阐述了平衡剖面技术在地震解释中的应用效果。结果显示,该剖面构造复原效果较好。并针对平衡剖面技术在地震资料解释中的应用提出了需注意的问题。     

Regional-scale landslide activity and landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya

Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping is a fundamental procedure for geo-disaster management in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Recently, various landslide susceptibility zonation models have been introduced in Nepal with diverse approaches of assessment. However, validation is still a problem. Additionally, the role of various predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity is still not well understood in the Nepal Himalaya. To address these issues of susceptibility zonation and landslide activity, about 4,000 km² area of central Nepal was selected for regional-scale assessment of landslide activity and susceptibility zonation mapping. In total, 655 new landslides and 9,229 old landslides were identified with the study area with the help of satellite images, aerial photographs, field data and available reports. The old landslide inventory was “blind landslide database” and could not explain the particular rainfall event responsible for the particular landslide. But considering size of the landslide, blind landslide inventory was reclassified into two databases: short-duration high-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory and long-duration low-intensity rainfall-induced landslide inventory. These landslide inventory maps were considered as proxy maps of multiple rainfall event-based landslide inventories. Similarly, all 9,884 landslides were considered for the activity assessment of predisposing causative parameters. For the Nepal Himalaya, slope, slope aspect, geology and road construction activity (anthropogenic cause) were identified as most affective predisposing causative parameters for landslide activity. For susceptibility zonation, multivariate approach was considered and two proxy rainfall event-based landslide databases were used for the logistic regression modelling, while a relatively recent landslide database was used in validation. Two event-based susceptibility zonation maps were merged and rectified to prepare the final susceptibility zonation map and its prediction rate was found to be more than 82 %. From this work, it is concluded that rectification of susceptibility zonation map is very appropriate and reliable. The results of this research contribute to a significant improvement in landslide inventory preparation procedure, susceptibility zonation mapping approaches as well as role of various predisposing causative parameters for the landslide activity.     

全站仪免棱镜测量技术在滑坡变形监测中的应用

三峡库区地形复杂,滑坡众多,地质灾害频发。若能把全站仪免棱镜测量技术应用于库区地质灾害监测,将会大大降低使用全站仪开展监测的工作量,提高工作效率。文章简要介绍了全站仪免棱镜测量的基本原理和应用现状。在总结前人经验基础上,针对免棱镜测距基线短,误差较大的局限性,结合三峡库区地质灾害监测的具体要求,对测量方法进行了改进,提出了反射膜测量法。本文介绍了有关的实验,以及在三峡工程万州库区实际监测工作中持续半年的应用情况与获得的成果。最后,对反射膜测量法与常规有棱镜测量进行的对比观测做了初步分析。     

Application of expert rules in indirect approaches for landslide susceptibility assessment

Landslide susceptibility (LS) assessment by indirect approaches presents some limitations due to (1) the tendency to simplify the environmental factors (i.e., variables) and (2) the assumptions that landslides occur under the same combination of variables for a study site. Recently, some authors have discussed the interest to introduce expert knowledge in the indirect approaches in order to improve the quality of indirect LS maps. However, if the results are reliable, the procedures used seem fastidious and a very good knowledge of the study site is essential. The objectives of this paper are to discuss a methodology to introduce the expert knowledge in the indirect mapping process. After the definition of the expert rules associated to three landslide types, several indirect LS maps are produced by two indirect exploratory approaches, based on fuzzy set theory and on a modification of a bivariate method called expert weight of evidence. Then, the indirect LS maps are confronted to a landslide inventory and a LS map produced by a direct approach. The analyses indicate that the methodology used to introduce the expert rules in the mapping process increases the predictive power of indirect LS map. Finally, some indications about advantages and drawbacks of each approach are given to help the geoscientist to introduce his expert knowledge in the landslide susceptibility mapping process.     

物元理论在危岩滑坡灾害社会经济易损性评价中的应用

文章分析了物元概念的可拓性。以万州为例,应用物元理论分析说明危岩、滑坡灾害的社会经济易损性具有发散性、可扩性、相关性和共扼性特点。进行区域易损性评价的基本目标是获取各种易损性参数,为滑坡灾害破坏损失评价提供基本资料。根据万州50a来的灾害统计资料,选取了灾害密度、灾害频数、经济(GDP)损失模数、生命损失模数等易损性评价指标,对该区的脆弱性和易损强度进行了综合评估,计算出其易损度。根据这些数据．提出用物元可拓集理论构造各易损程度指标等级标准的物元矩阵和待识别对象与各指标的关联度,根据关联度大小判断综合易损度(CVD)与计算结果相符合。最后提出减灾工作应在传统理论研究的基础上,应用物元理论采用可拓学方法,提出区域易损性分析、评估的简单思路,以期为滑坡区域防灾、减灾规划提供新的理论和方法依据。     

四川巴塘扎马古滑坡发育特征与复活趋势

扎马古滑坡是位于川西巴塘断裂带内的一个大型古滑坡,通过遥感解译、现场调查、钻探等手段,揭示扎马古滑坡体积约2840×104m3.研究表明,扎马古滑坡局部具有复活特征,在平面上可分为滑坡后壁(Ⅰ)和滑坡体(Ⅱ)2个分区;根据滑坡变形情况将该区划分为中部局部稳定区(Ⅱ1)和前缘强变形区(Ⅱ2、Ⅱ3),Ⅱ2和Ⅱ3以坡体前缘的...     

Application of logistic regression and fuzzy operators to landslide susceptibility assessment in Azdavay (Kastamonu,Turkey)

Landslides and their assessments are of great importance since they damage properties, infrastructures, environment, lives and so on. Particularly, landslide inventory, susceptibility, and hazard or risk mapping have become important issues in the last few decades. Such maps provide useful information and can be produced by qualitative or quantitative methods. The work presented in this paper aimed to assess landslide susceptibility in a selected area, covering 570.625 km² in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey, by two quantitative methods. For this purpose, in the first stage, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared by extensive field studies. A total of 96 landslides were mapped during these studies. To perform landslide susceptibility analyses, six input parameters such as topographical elevation, lithology, land use, slope, aspect and distance to streams were considered. Two quantitative methods, logistic regression and fuzzy approach, were used to assess landslide susceptibility in the selected area. For the fuzzy approach, the fuzzy and, or, algebraic product, algebraic sum and gamma operators were considered. At the final stage, 18 landslide susceptibility maps were produced by the logistic regression and fuzzy operators in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment. Two performance indicators such as ROC (relative operating characteristics) and cosine amplitude method (r _ij ) were used to validate the final susceptibility maps. Based on the analyses, the landslide susceptibility map produced by the fuzzy gamma operator with a level of 0.975 showed the best performance. In addition, the maps produced by the logistic regression, fuzzy algebraic product and the higher levels of gamma operators showed more satisfactory results, while the fuzzy and, or, algebraic sum maps were not sufficient to provide reliable outputs.     

逻辑回归和人工神经网络模型在滑坡灾害空间预测中的应用

以三峡坝区到巴东段为研究区,选择坡度、坡向、软弱夹层、水系影响范围和土地利用状况等9项评价指标,分别采用逻辑回归和人工神经网络(ANN)模型,在ArcGIS平台上进行滑坡灾害危险性预测。此外,应用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC曲线)分析方法对两种模型的预测结果进行对比,分析结果表明滑坡危险性预测区划图和实际的滑坡发育情况基本吻合,逻辑回归模型和ANN模型的ROC曲线下面积AUC值分别为0.806和0.799,两种模型的预测结果可以相互验证,且逻辑回归模型的预测精度相对较高。     

大渡河瀑布沟水库红岩子滑坡变形特征与机理分析

库水涨落常诱发库岸滑坡变形破坏。为了研究库岸滑坡的变形特征及变形机理,以大渡河瀑布沟水电站红岩子滑坡为对象,通过详细的地表宏观变形调查和对监测数据的深入分析,结合GeoStudio数值模拟,深入研究了该滑坡的变形特征、渗流场、稳定性及库水对滑坡的作用机理。结果表明：红岩子滑坡地表宏观变形显著,累计位移曲线呈“阶跃”式特征,库水下降是滑坡变形的主要诱发因素;库水位由850 m高水位集中下降至830 m以下时,位移阶跃启动,“阶跃”段的累计变形量占全年总变形量的90%以上,当库水位下降速率大于0.5 m/d时,滑坡加速变形;滑坡变形模式为蠕滑-拉裂,库水升降导致滑体内部渗透力的变化,对滑坡稳定性影响很大,引发滑坡“阶跃”变形。     

GIS技术在生态环境地质评价中的应用

针对生态环境地质调查与评价的特点,建立了应用GIS技术进行生态环境地质评价的基本思路和技术流程,提出了相关图形-属性数据库建立的要点,阐述了生态环境地质评价的基本步骤,并对有关指标体系的选取、分析评价模型等做了重点分析。