A review of multiple natural hazards and risks in Germany

Although Germany is not among the most hazard-prone regions of the world, it does experience various natural hazards that have caused considerable economic and human losses in the past. Moreover, risk due to natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Germany if efficient risk management is not able to accommodate global changes. The most important natural hazards, in terms of past human and economic damage they caused, are storms, floods, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. They all show a pronounced spatial and temporal variability. In the present article, a review of these natural hazards, associated risks and their management in Germany is provided. This review reveals that event and risk analyses, as well as risk management, predominantly focus on one single hazard, generally not considering the cascading and conjoint effects in a full multi-hazard and risks approach. However, risk management would need integrated multi-risk analyses to identify, understand, quantify and compare different natural hazards and their impacts, as well as their interactions.     

Megacities and natural disasters: a comparative analysis*

Natural disasters are a worsening problem in many of the world's largest cities. Since an increasing majority of the world's population will soon live in cities, and mostly in large cities, the trend towards increasing urban hazard poses serious societal challenges for the future. Beginning in the mid-1990s, the International Geographical Union's Study Group on the Disaster Vulnerability of Megacities undertook a series of case studies of megacities that have been – and are – exposed to major natural disasters. These include: Tokyo, Seoul, Sydney, Lima, Mexico City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami, London and Dhaka. Case studies focused on reviewing the historic record of major disasters in each city and on documenting recent changes in different components of hazard including, risk, exposure, vulnerability and response. It was found that exposure and vulnerability are the components of hazard that are changing fastest and with the gravest implications for urban populations. Because hazards are only one part of the typical urban management agenda, hazards management in large cities should be pursued with careful regard to the context of general urban policy manking and management. Sustainability has become a guiding principle of urban management but the relationship between hazard and sustainability is little understood and little explored. The way lies open for hazard researchers to develop alternative contextualized approaches to the analysis and resolution of urban hazard issues. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Tidal Changes and Coastal Hazards: Past,Present and Future

A review is presented of the nature of tidal changes and their importance in the context of coastal hazards. This is done in order to illustrate the way in which tides do and may impact on the coast as a hazard and highlight the need for research to be carried out in this context. Three main aspects of tides are significant in this respect – these are: (1) tidal heights, including tidal range and the asymmetry or otherwise of the flood/ebb cycle; (2) tidal currents, the speed and direction of which affect sediment movement, sources and sinks; and (3) tidal mixing of fresh water with water of varying levels of salinity and differing temperatures. A variety of tools, from geological data to modelling, and tide gauges to satellites, may be used to assess tidal changes. Tides form the basis on which all other coastal processes operate and are therefore important with regard to the physical, chemical and biological hazards in the coastal zone. There is an urgent need to study tidal changes – both their nature and causes – in order to ensure successful coastal management.     

Situating local experience of risk: Peripherality, marginality and place identity in the UK foot and mouth disease crisis

Research into exposure to, and experience of, environmental risk that has an explicitly spatial focus can be broadly differentiated into two strands. The first strand focuses on the responses of communities of exposure (or the threat of exposure) to some form of environmental hazard and to the policies put in place by institutional actors to manage the hazard. The second strand addresses social inequalities in exposure to environmental hazards and seeks to correlate uneven spatial distributions of risk across different social groups. It is argued that both strands are limited by their respective understandings of space - and that the way in which vulnerable communities experience environmental risk and its management will be shaped significantly by the complex interactions of different spatialisations or constructions of space. We explore this process by examining accounts of local experience of the UK’s 2001 foot and mouth disease crisis and its management in terms of the interplay of two different spatialisations: socio-cultural marginality and political-economic peripherality. We trace the relationship between these cultural and political-economic spatialisations through an analysis of the discursive mobilisation of contrasting place rhetorics. We conclude that focusing on these rhetorics can enhance our understanding of the spatial processes which are constitutive of place identity and in turn mediate the experience of environmental risk and its management.     

Natural hazards in South America: In search of a method and a theory

Traditional natural hazard researchers have failed to deal with hazard occurrences in Latin America in a comprehensive and coherent fashion because of their cultural bias and lack of knowledge about the regional implications of hazard conditions.The attempt is made in this paper to point out that some of the climatic hazards that beset South America, such as El Nino phenomenon on the coasts of Peru and Chile, the frosts in south-central Brazil, and the droughts of NE Brazil, are not isolated occurrences, but meteorological anomalies whose implications encompass not only the affected areas but also distant environments and economies.Systems analysis is utilized to prove that the oceanic-climatic El Nino phenomenon is genetically linked to global climatic anomalies and that the effects of such anomalies are felt in the ecological balance of the Pacific basin, of Africa, and of S Asia. Among their economic implications are shortages of anomal protein (from fish meal) and crop failures in Africa and the Soviet Union. Political consequences of hazardous conditions are also evident at hand of the 1971–73 climatic oscillations, of which El Nino was a symptom.In order to provide natural hazard research with a coherent theory, the cusp catastrophe theory of Thom and Zeeman is applied to the understanding of the conditions that lead to the onset of an oceanic-climatic El Nino occurrence. It is suggested that — considering that such a situation arises from interdependent ocean-atmosphere feedbacks — only under very special circumstances does this interplay lead to the sudden development of an El Nino condition. Catastrophe theory is not a deterministic theory but it considers the possibility of sudden change of states within a system.     

Natural hazards in British Columbia: an interdisciplinary and inter-institutional challenge

 Although British Columbia experiences many natural hazards, there is as yet no unified policy to promote natural hazard management in the province. The problem is not in the quantity and quality of geoscience assessment of natural hazards, but instead, it is suggested, in the isolation of that work from broader risk perspectives and in the lack of clarity of division of responsibilities between various levels of government. The example of recent changes in perception of the terrain stability problem illustrates how natural hazard problems are driven by social and political priorities rather than by geoscience priorities. Received: 22 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 November 1998     

Coping with natural hazards and disasters in megacities: Perspectives on the Twenty-First Century

Changes in global urbanization and emerging patterns of disaster losses suggest that it may now be time to refocus the hazards research agenda on problems of very large cities. The resolution of urban disaster issues will require development of new collaborative strategies between victims, researchers, managers, policy makers and stakeholders in the hazards community and their counterparts in other urban interest groups. The experience of megacities in the United States and elsewhere that have been affected by recent major disasters and continuing hazards is examined to identify opportunities for initiating new policies and programs. Implications for hazard research and the concept of urban sustainability are noted.This paper is based on presentations to the International Symposium on Urban Growth and Natural Hazards, Universite Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand, France, December 2–3 and the annual conference of the Institute of British Geographers, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, 3–4 January, 1995. It also draws on material which is more fully reported in the forthcoming bookMegacity and Natural Disasters to be published by the United Nations University Press.     

Earthquake shaking probabilities for communities on Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Comprehensive risk assessments are fundamental to effective emergency management. These assessments need to identify the range of hazards (or perils) an entity is exposed to and quantify the specific threats associated with each of those hazards. While hazard identification is commonly, if not formally, conducted in most circumstances, specific threat analysis is often overlooked for a variety of reasons, one of which is poor communication with subject matter experts. This poor communication is often attributable to an adherence to scientific jargon and missed opportunities to simplify information. In Canada, for example, earthquake hazard calculations have been readily available to engineers and scientists for decades. This hazard information, however, is expressed in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) or spectral accelerations (SA) that are foreign concepts to most emergency managers, community decision-makers and the public-at-large. There is, therefore, a need to more clearly, simply and effectively express seismic hazard information to the non-scientific community. This paper provides crustal, sub-crustal and subduction interface earthquake shaking probabilities, expressed as simple percentages for each of 57 locations across Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Calculations present the likelihood of earthquake shaking on Vancouver Island as the probabilities of exceeding each of three shaking intensity thresholds (“widely felt”; onset of “non-structurally damaging” shaking; and onset of “structurally damaging” shaking) over four timeframes (10, 25, 50 and 100 years). Results are based on the latest Geological Survey of Canada hazard models used for the 2010 national building code and are presented in both tabular and graphic formats. This simplified earthquake hazard information is offered to aid local residents, organizations and governments in understanding and assessing their risk and to encourage and facilitate sound earthquake preparedness funding decisions.     

全球主要火山灾害及其分布特征

本文研究了火山灾害各种致灾因子的物理过程和灾害特点,根据文献中记载的全球火山灾害,在进行火山灾害分区研究的基础上,研究了全球火山灾害分布特征.全球主要的火山灾害分布在8个主要区域.有记载的火山灾害在热带占73%,远高于火山喷发分布于热带区的比例.全球两个最强烈的火山灾害分布区都是围绕着位于板块结合部表现为复杂构造结的班达海和加勒比海,而且每一个灾害区都有3条分支.热带区第3个灾害区为中非区,地幔上隆是这里主要的动力学背景.本文还研究了1700年以来火山灾害时间分布特征,以及1993年以来各种火山灾害发生频次.     

Land-use planning for natural hazards in New Zealand: the setting,barriers, ‘burning issues’ and priority actions

Land-use planners have a critical role to play in building vibrant, sustainable and hazard resilient communities in New Zealand. The policy and legal setting for natural hazards planning provides a solid foundation for good practice. But there are many examples of ‘bad practice’ that result in unnecessary risks and, in some cases, exposure to repeat events and potentially devastating impacts. Much, therefore, remains to be done to improve hazards planning policy and practice in New Zealand. This article explores the questions: What role does land-use planning play in managing hazard risks in New Zealand; and what needs to be done to reduce hazard risks and build community resilience? The article starts by describing the milieu within which natural hazards planning takes place. It goes onto outline the stakeholders and institutional and legal setting for natural hazards planning in New Zealand, including barriers to realising the potential of natural hazards planning. This synthesis reveals a number of ‘burning issues’, including the need to: (a) Improve understanding about the nature of hazards; (b) Prioritise risk avoidance (reduction) measures; (c) Provide national guidance for communities exposed to repeat events and address the relocation issue and (d) Mainstream climate change adaptation. Each ‘burning issue’ is discussed, and priority actions are recommended to realise the potential of land-use planning to reduce natural hazard risks and build community resilience in New Zealand. Ultimately, the challenge is to develop a cooperative hazards governance approach that is founded on coordinated policies, laws and institutions, cooperative professional practice and collaborative communities.     

Seismic hazard assessments for two test areas — ‘Southern Italy’ and ‘Belgium—The Netherlands—Germany’

Within the activity of the ESC Subcommission 8 Engineering Seismology, Project TERESA, seismic hazard calculations have been performed for two areas of a different earthquake activity. Fundamental seismological data (earthquake catalogues, macroseismic observations and maps) and some additional geological information were analyzed and processed to prepare inputs for hazard computations. Great attention has been paid to verifying the reliability of the input data. Seismic hazards obtained for five sites of the region of high seismic activity (Sannio-Matese, southern Italy) and six sites of the region of low seismic activity (Brabant Massif and northern Rhine, Belgium—The Netherlands—Germany) are presented and discussed.     

云南地质灾害及灾害防治

由于特殊的地理位置和多样化的地形地貌，云南是中国地质灾害最为频发的地区之一。各种地质灾害，从滑坡、崩塌、泥石流到地面沉降，从土壤流失到石漠化等广泛分布于全省，其中，斜坡地质灾害尤其，日益给人们的生命财产构成威胁并造成巨大损失。在过去的十年，地质灾害治理投入了大量工作，已在全省建立了防治体系，制定了有关的法律法规，在地质灾害多发区采取了工程治理、生物工程治理措施，使当地人民的正常生命得到保障，许多工业及民用设施得到有效保护。目前，在政府和民众的关心支持下，更深入的全省地质灾害调查正在进行。     

宝鸡市地质灾害现状分析及防治对策

宝鸡市地质环境复杂,加之近年来人类不合理工程、经济活动的加剧,地质灾害时有发生,已成为陕西省地质灾害多发、高发区之一。目前全市有各类地质灾害点784处,已引起当地政府和社会各界的普遍关注。笔者详细分析了宝鸡市地质灾害现状、地质灾害分布规律、地质灾害形成条件与影响因素以及目前地质灾害防治中存在的各类问题,并在此基础上,对宝鸡市今后地质灾害的防治工作提出了几点建议,为宝鸡市地质灾害的正确防治具有一定的指导意义。     

粤东陆河县地质灾害易发性评价

开展大比例尺高精度的地质灾害评价是当前地质灾害调查所亟需的。根据资料和实地调查,本文以广东汕尾地区陆河县为研究区,从现状地质灾害和潜在地质灾害2个方面选取个数密度、面积密度、体积密度、坡度、断裂密度、岩土体类型、降雨量和人类工程活动8个指标,在ArcGIS软件的支持下,应用地质灾害综合危险性指数法对陆河县的地质灾害及不稳定斜坡的易发性进行区划,评价结果分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区3级,分区面积为低>高>中,灾害密度为高>中>低,研究所得可作为区域地质灾害风险管理的基础之一。     

Editorial

The Far North Queensland city of Cairns has a significant history of exposureto the impact of a wide range of natural hazards, most notably tropical cyclones.A program of publicly funded research, using Cairns as its `living laboratory'and aimed at understanding the risks posed by these hazards was a central partof Australia's involvement in the International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction. This program involved input from all three levels of governmentin Australia – national, state and local – as well as academe, industry and the Cairns community.This paper outlines the background to this program of research and an overview ofthe Cairns community that provides context for the other papers in this issue. Whilemuch of the scientific effort has been focused on developing a better understandingof the hazard phenomena involved, an important outcome of the Cairns research hasbeen the evolution of techniques by which to develop a better understanding of thecommunity at risk and strategies by which to reduce their risk.     

The human component in flood warning and flood response system

The disign of flood warning — flood response systems is often performed as part of the overall engineering analysis of flood damage mitigation schemes. However, an important part of the flood response component of such systems is human perception of the flood hazard and its implication for the responses undertaken. This human dimension is examined from three viewpoints, the perception of the flood, the issues in the warning dissemination process, and the implications for the actions undertaken by individual flood plain occupants in response to a warning. Evidence is provided to show how the human characteristics of the flood plain occupants can signigicantly affect the benefits derived from a flood warning — flood response system. The importance of these non-engineering aspects of the problem leads to recommendations for closer collaboration between traditional technical experts and social scientists. The cooperation should extend beyond the assessment of the reduction in flood damages expected from a particular flood warning scheme into actual design of the dissemination process and response mechanisms.     

Accidents in mountain recreation —The experiences of international and domestic visitors in New Zealand

An important component of recreation in mountain areas is the experience of risk. Visitors to such places may be seeking the challenge provided by risk, but they may also experience the negative side of risk — accident and injury. International and domestic visitors to mountain lands may have differing experiences of risk. Indeed, it has been suggested frequently in New Zealand that international visitors face considerably more danger than do New Zealanders in mountain recreation. This view is pursued in an examination of one of the negative outcomes of risk — fatal accidents.Coroners' reports form the basis of a comparative study of such negative outcomes for the two groups. Patterns and trends are elaborated in an exploration of the number, location and cause of fatalities, and the activity of the deceased. Differences between two groups are discussed, as are some reasons why the impression that international visitors face more danger exists.     

The perceptions of social responsibility for community resilience to flooding: the impact of past experience,age, gender and ethnicity

Community resilience to flooding depends, to a large extent, on the participation of community members to take more responsibility for enhancing their own resilience. The perception of social responsibility (SR) which is argued to be one of the antecedents influencing individual’s willingness to undertake resilient behaviours can significantly contribute to community resilience through individual and collective actions. Understanding of factors influencing the perceptions of SR of individuals within community might help with developing strategies to increase the perceptions of SR. This research explores perceptions of SR in relation to flooding for householders and local businesses and establishes their relationships with experience of flooding and demographic factors of age, gender and ethnicity. The data were obtained via a questionnaire survey of three communities in Birmingham and one community in South East London, UK, three with experience of flooding and one without. A total of 414 responses were received and used in the multiple regression analysis. The analysis identified ‘experience of flooding’, ‘age’ and ‘South Asian’ ethnic group as significant variables, suggesting that older individuals from South Asian ethnic groups with previous experience of flooding are likely to be more socially responsible than others without these attributes.     

基于WEBGIS和实时降雨信息的区域地质灾害预警预报系统

基于WEBGIS平台,根据浙江省地质灾害大调查和补充调查资料,结合浙江省气象台提供的雨季实时降雨量与降雨量预测信息,建立了浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统。该系统目的在于：（1）建立浙江省突发性地质灾害信息库管理系统,实现对突发性地质灾害点分布和灾情信息的图形和数据一体化管理;（2）建立基于网络或其它通讯方式的滑坡（泥石流）灾害实时预警预报系统,实现与气象部门的连接,根据雨季的实时降雨预报和雨量资料,对浙江省滑坡（泥石流）灾害发生的空间范围进行实时发布。该系统核心是地质灾害预警预报模块,而模块是在区域地质灾害空间预测的基础上,结合实时的气象动态信息,研究在不同地质环境和不同气象条件下地质灾害体发生的规律,以提高区域地质灾害的预报精度。2004年的5月底到7月初的雨季中进行了试运行,该系统的预测情况与地质灾害的实际发生情况吻合性较好,表明预测方法和模型是基本可行的,且可操作性强。     

地质灾害防灾减灾技术研究现状及发展综述

中国是地质灾害最为严重的国家之一.许多学者和机构对如何防范地质灾害、减轻地质灾害的影响进行了研究.根据这些研究将地质灾害防灾减灾技术总结为4类：地质灾害监测,地质灾害预测预警,地质灾害风险评估和地质灾害风险管理.对国内外地质灾害的监测、预警、风险评估和风险管理等方面的研究进行了总结.分析了目前的发展状况和存在的问题.