Flash flood occurrence and magnitude assessment in an alluvial fan context: the October 2011 event in the Southern Apennines

Natural Hazards - This study presents the analysis of flash floods triggered by an extreme rainfall event that occurred on 7 October, 2011, over the Marzano carbonate massif (Southern Apennines)....     

Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks

Multi-risk approaches have been recently proposed to assess and compare different risks in the same target area. The key points of multi-risk assessment are the development of homogeneous risk definitions and the treatment of risk interaction. The lack of treatment of interaction may lead to significant biases and thus to erroneous risk hierarchization, which is one of primary output of risk assessments for decision makers. In this paper, a formal statistical model is developed to treat interaction between two different hazardous phenomena in long-term multi-risk assessments, accounting for possible effects of interaction at hazard, vulnerability and exposure levels. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through two illustrative examples, dealing with the influence of (1) volcanic ash in seismic risk and (2) local earthquakes in tsunami risk. In these applications, the bias in single-risk estimation induced by the assumption of independence among risks is explicitly assessed. An extensive application of this methodology at regional and sub-regional scale would allow to identify when and where a given interaction has significant effects in long-term risk assessments, and thus, it should be considered in multi-risk analyses and risks hierarchization.     

Back analysis of landslide susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: an assessment of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps

The October 2005 earthquake triggered several thousand landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Kashmir in northern Pakistan and India. Analyses of ASTER satellite imagery from 2001 were compared with a study undertaken in 2005; the results show the extent and nature of pre- and co-/post-seismic landsliding. Within a designated study area of ~2,250 km², the number of landslides increased from 369 in 2001 to 2,252 in October 2005. Assuming a balanced baseline landsliding frequency over the 4 years, most of the new landslides were likely triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks. These landslides mainly happened in specific geologic formations, along faults, rivers and roads, and in shrubland/grassland and agricultural land. Preliminary results from repeat photographs from 2005 and 2006 after the snowmelt season reveal that much of the ongoing landsliding occurred along rivers and roads, and the extensive earthquake-induced fissuring. Although the susceptibility zoning success rate for 2001 was low, many of the co-/post-seismic landsliding in 2005 occurred in areas that had been defined as being potentially dangerous on the 2001 map. While most of the area in 2001 was (very) highly susceptible to future landsliding, most of the area in 2005 was only moderate to low susceptible, that is, most of the landsliding in 2005 actually occurred in the potentially dangerous areas on the 2001 map. This study supports the view that although susceptibility zoning maps represent a powerful tool in natural hazard management, caution is needed when developing and using such maps.     

A new model of geo-environmental impact assessment of mining: a multiple-criteria assessment method integrating Fuzzy-AHP with fuzzy synthetic ranking

A new evaluation model for geo-environmental impact assessment of mining (GEIAM) is proposed. The evaluation framework in this model considers three groups of criteria, namely, geo-hazards risks, environmental risks, and resource damages. Fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to establish a multiple-criteria evaluation system and simultaneously command weighting to avoid vagueness and ambiguity in expert judgment. Membership function was employed to deal with the vagueness boundary problem of indices scoring and to help complete the ultimate fuzzy synthetic ranking. The model expresses the evaluation results with an integrated objective ranking and three criteria ranking. It was tentatively applied to assess an opencast limestone mine. The results indicated that the indices sequences were consistent with the mine background and the expert professional experience and better revealed the impact of geo-hazards risks. Specific assessment factors such as geo-hazards potential, engineering geological condition, and hydrogeological condition were prioritized for further improvement. Compared with existing GEIAM evaluation methods, the proposed assessment model focuses more on expert experience and judgment, breaks through the limitation of local estimation to variable attributes and, most importantly, satisfies the multi-purpose requirements to incorporate real considerations together for mining safety, geo-environmental protection, and natural resource conservation.     

An approximation to the reliability of series geotechnical systems using a linearization approach

A method based on the linearization of the limit state functions (LSFs) is applied to evaluate the reliability of series geotechnical systems. The approach only needs information provided by first order reliability method (FORM) results: the vector of reliability indices, β, of the LSFs composing the system; and their correlation matrix, R. Two common geotechnical problems—the stability of a slope in layered soil and a circular tunnel in rock—are employed to demonstrate the simplicity, accuracy and efficiency of the suggested procedure, and advantages of the linearization approach with respect to alternative computational tools are discussed. It is also found that, if necessary, the second order reliability method (SORM)—that approximates the true LSF better than FORM—can be employed to compute better estimations of the system’s reliability.     

On the reliability of different methods of seismic hazard assessment in Greece

Historical and present century instrumental data have been used to determine seismic hazard in 35 sites of Greece by the application of Cornell's method (Cornell, 1968) and the mean value method. The macroseismic intensity has been considered as a measure of seismic hazard. Comparison of the results of the two methods showed that, in general, the mean value method gives higher values, particularly for low probabilities of exceedance. In addition, for some sites, the differences of the expected intensities resulting from the two methods, indicate that finer tuning of the seismogenic souce model is required, or suggest time dependence. Although each one of these methods has its own merits, the method based on seismic zonation (Cornell's method) has several advantages and must be preferred when an accurate zonation is possible by the use of macroseismic and instrumental seismic data, together with geological and geomorphological information. However, reliable estimates of seismic hazard at a particular site require work on a microzoning scale, incorporating historical, archaeological, and recent geological data.Paper presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988.     

Error determination in the photogrammetric assessment of shoreline changes

The evaluation of error or uncertainty in shoreline change studies is an issue of prime importance for providing an adequate framework for calculated rates of change and to allow the establishment of threshold values above which the rates would be significant. In this note, a practical, easy-to-use method is presented to estimate error involved in the calculation of shoreline changes on aerial photographs, including the three most used types of shoreline indicators: high water line, dune/cliff toe and cliff top. This approach takes into account the specific characteristics of each shoreline proxy, such as relief in the case of the cliff top or tidal oscillations in the case of the high water line. At the same time it includes the error components that are independent from the proxy, basically related to the technical aspects of the process such as photo scanning and georeferencing. A practical example of application of the method is provided for several types of data inputs, based on shoreline changes around the Bay of Cádiz (SW Spain).     

Multivariate statistical analysis for the assessment of groundwater quality under different hydrogeological regimes

Multivariate statistical analysis has been widely used for hydrogeochemical characterization of groundwater quality. In this study, hydrochemical data from three hydrological basins were used and two methods (factor and cluster analyses) were applied. The first area is the coastal area of Eastern Thermaikos Gulf where groundwater is influenced by seawater intrusion and geothermal fluids. The other two areas are the inland basins of Gallikos and Perdikas in which agricultural and industrial activities constitute the main anthropogenic pollution sources of groundwater. Initially, the aforementioned methods were applied for each area separately and resulted in a different number of significant factors and clusters, while the natural and anthropogenic influences were spatially determined in each area. Additionally, factor and cluster analyses were applied coupling data from all areas. Therefore, five clusters and three major factors were determined distinguishing the hydrochemical processes and impacts from anthropogenic activities in more detail. It is worth mentioning that the application of cluster analysis in the coupled groundwater samples of all studied areas resulted beneficially in the most hydrochemically complex area. Salinization dominates in the coastal area, while in Gallikos and Perdikas basins high concentrations of NO₃ occur mainly due to agricultural activities and small livestock units. The numerous hydrochemical samples are identified as the main issue for the higher discretization and reliability of the second approach. Nevertheless, this study is associated with a number of limitations of multivariable statistical analysis regarding extreme concentrations of Cl and Na. This issue stimulates further research in overcoming and understanding these drawbacks.     

A statistical assessment of the uncertainty in a 3-D geological framework model

Three-dimensional framework models are the state of the art to present geologists’ understanding of a region in a form that can be used to support planning and decision making. However, there is little information on the uncertainty of such framework models. This paper reports an experiment in which five geologists each produced a framework model of a single region in the east of England. Each modeller was provided with a unique set of borehole observations from which to make their model. Each set was made by withholding five unique validation boreholes from the set of all available boreholes. The models could then be compared with the validation observations. There was no significant between-modeller source of variation in framework model error. There was no evidence of systematic bias in the modelled depth for any unit, and a statistically significant but small tendency for the mean error to increase with depth below the surface. The confidence interval for the predicted height of a surface at a point ranged from ±5.6 m to ±6.4 m. There was some evidence that the variance of the model error increased with depth, but no evidence that it differed between modellers or varied with the number of close-neighbouring boreholes or distance to the outcrop. These results are specific to the area that has been modelled, with relatively simple geology, and reflect the relatively dense set of boreholes available for modelling. The method should be applied under a range of conditions to derive more general conclusions.     

Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in granitic rocks using GIS-based statistical methods: the contribution of the weathering grade map

Shallow landslides (i.e., slide, flow, and complex) are widespread around the world, affecting the soil mantle and upper regolith as a result of the weathering of granitic bedrock, and periodically cause enormous social and economic damages. Shallow landslide hazards are predominantly due to the scarcity of warning signs during the pre-failure stage, high velocities reached in the post-failure phase, and an increase in mobilized volumes caused by the entrapment of material in the downhill path of the phenomena. Owing to the abovementioned aspects, susceptibility assessment of shallow landslides in weathered granitic rocks is a relevant issue for land use planning and design purposes. This study proposes a three-step methodology for the susceptibility assessment of these phenomena. The methodology has been tested and validated at the 1:10,000 scale over a 30.4-km² area in southern Italy, where weathered granitic rocks are periodically affected by shallow landslides. This methodology is divided into three successive steps: step 1 consists of database creation, with an emphasis on the weathering grade map (including five weathering classes, from class II to class VI, each one characterized by comparable mechanical behavior), and steps 2 and 3 focus respectively on susceptibility map calibration and validation through statistical analyses. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) shows values ranging from 0.95 in step 2 (calibration) to 0.88 in step 3 (validation) and is a testament to the good overall predictive accuracy of the methodology. The obtained results demonstrate both the effectiveness and the consistency of the proposed methodology in performing susceptibility mapping of shallow landslides in weathered granitic rocks, as well as the important role played by the weathering grade map.     

Spatial and statistical assessment of nitrate contamination in groundwater:Case of Sais Basin,Morocco

The objective of this study is to evaluate the nitrate contamination in the plioquaternary aquifer of Sais Basin based on a statistical approach. A total of 98 samples were collected in the cultivated area during the spring and autumn period of 2018. The results show that 55% and 57% of the samples in spring and autumn respectively exceed the threshold fixed by WHO(50 mg/L). However, nitrate concentrations do not show seasonal and spatial variation(p0.05). The results of the correlation matrix, principal component analysis(PCA), and hierarchical cluster analysis(HCA) suggest that nitrate pollution is related to anthropogenic source. Moreover, multiple linear regression results show that NO_3 is more positively explained in the spring period by Ca and SO_4 and negatively explained by pH and HCO_3. Regarding the autumn period, nitrate pollution is positively explained by Ca and negatively by pH. This study proposes a useful statistical platform for assessing nitrate pollution in groundwater.     

Hydrogeological assessment of the Tabarteh fault zone by physicochemical analysis and multivariate statistical methods

Hydrogeologically, faults may impede, conduit, exert no influence, or may play a combination of these roles on groundwater flow. The object of this paper is to study the hydrogeological role of the Tabarteh fault, which is located on the border of Zagros and Central Iran tectonic zones in an alluvial aquifer. The recorded data of water table levels, chemical parameters, and discharge rate of wells, in addition to geological maps and geophysical results, were collected and evaluated. The outcrop of travertine in limited areas and the emergence of a few small springs within the alluvium show a barrier role of the fault in the groundwater flow. The spatial analysis of chemical components, head time series, and groundwater flow direction assessment demonstrated that the fault acts as both a barrier and a non-barrier in different sections. The multivariate statistical methods of cluster and discriminant analyses also confirm the dual role of the fault.     

Water quality assessment of the Jinshui River (China) using multivariate statistical techniques

Multivariate statistical techniques have been widely utilized to assess water quality and evaluate aquatic ecosystem health. In this study, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, and factor analysis techniques are applied to analyze the physical and chemical variables in order to evaluate water quality of the Jinshui River, a water source area for an interbasin water transfer project of China. Cluster analysis classifies 12 sampling sites with 22 variables into three clusters reflecting the geo-setting and different pollution levels. Discriminant analysis confirms the three clusters with nine discriminant variables including water temperature, total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, pH, ammoniacal nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, turbidity, bicarbonate, and potassium. Factor analysis extracts five varifactors explaining 90.01% of the total variance and representing chemical component, oxide-related process, natural weathering and decomposition processes, nutrient process, and physical processes, respectively. The study demonstrates the capacity of multivariate statistical techniques for water quality assessment and pollution factors/sources identification for sustainable watershed management.     

Comparison of statistical methods and multi-time validation for the determination of the shallow landslide rainfall thresholds

Shallow landslides are unforeseeable phenomena often resulting in critical conditions in terms of people’s safety and damage. The main purpose of this paper is the comparison of different statistical methods used to determine the rainfall thresholds for the shallow landslide occurrence. Rainfall data over a 46-year period were collected for one rain gauge located in a test area of northwest Italy (Riviera Spezzina; RS). In the RS, intense rainfalls often induce shallow landslides causing damage and sometimes casualties. The rainfall events occurred in the 1967–2006 period were classified as events inducing shallow landslides (SLEs_1967–2006) and events that did not trigger shallow landslides (NSLEs_1967–2006). Thresholds for various percentiles of SLEs_1967–2006 were computed by identifying the lower limit above which shallow landslides occurred. Another set of thresholds, corresponding to different probabilities of occurrence, was determined using SLEs_1967–2006 and NSLEs_1967–2006. The least-squares linear fit (LSF) and the quantile regression (QR) techniques were employed in the former approach, while the logistic regression (LR) was applied in the latter. The thresholds were validated with the same data used for their definition and with the data recorded in the 2008–2014 period. Contingency tables were created and contingencies and skill scores were computed. The 10% probability threshold obtained using the LR method is characterized by the best values of at least two skill scores for both periods considered; therefore, it may be considered the “best” threshold for the RS. The results of this work can help the choice of the best statistical method to determine the shallow landslide rainfall thresholds.     

基于综合指数法的泰莱盆地岩溶塌陷风险性评价

泰莱盆地岩溶地面塌陷始发于20世纪60年代,至今岩溶塌陷地质灾害仍不断发生,造成了日趋严重的经济损失和社会影响。本文将泰莱盆地作为整体研究对象,在对工作区地质环境条件进行充分分析的基础上,选取了包括岩溶塌陷影响因子及能反应社会影响的易损因子（包括灾损敏感因子和抗损强度因子）在内的共计12项指标作为岩溶塌陷评价要素,建立了研究区风险性评价体系;然后,利用层次分析法（AHP）计算各评价要素的权重,结合已有资料绘制各指标分级图并分别赋值;最后,利用MAPGIS软件叠加计算风险性指标,依据风险性分级标准进行研究区岩溶塌陷风险性评价分级区划。结果表明：高风险区主要分布在泰安市城区火车站、訾家灌庄、东羊娄—旧县一带;莱芜市大王庄镇孤山—后枯河及铁矿区孟公清、泉河一带,这些区域多位于水源地周边或矿山企业排水区,高强度的抽排地下水是岩溶塌陷发生的最主要的致塌因素。     

Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude

As reported in the preceding paper, a transient change of the electric field of the earth (seismic electric signal), hereafter called SES, appears many hours before an earthquake (EQ). By measuring this change in a given direction and dividing it with a suitable relative effective resistivity one obtains a quantity that reflects the current density in this direction. Measurements in two directions (E-W and N-S) give the relative signal intensity J_rel at the station under consideration. By measuring J_rel at a number of stations and considering that it attenuates according to a 1/r-law, the epicenter can be determined with an accuracy usually around 100 km. Once the epicenter has been determined, the product J_rel · r can be evaluated so that the magnitude M can be estimated by resorting to an empirical log(J_rel · r) versus M plot. The uncertainty of M is around 0.5 units. Following Sobolev (1975) and for the statistics to be beyond any doubt, predictions were officially documented before the EQ-occurrence. For 23 earthquakes with a magnitude equal or greater than M_s = 5.0 two events were missed.The present method is compared to other electrical methods used in China, Japan and Soviet Union. A number of problems concerning the origin of the effect, its directivity and the attenuation with distance remain open for further studies.