A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment

In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ??9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoes.     

Economic risk assessment of Cotopaxi volcano,Ecuador, in case of a future lahar emplacement

Natural Hazards - The Cotopaxi volcano in north-central Ecuador is one of the most dangerous volcanoes of the world due to its ability to generate far-reaching lahars, which are able to destroy...     

Probabilistic assessment of tephra fallout hazard at Changbaishan volcano,Northeast China

Natural Hazards - Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by volcanic eruption, and is also one of the main hazards at Changbaishan volcano, Northeast China. Numerical simulation is an...     

A GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment and delineation of a methodology for future risk assessment: case study for Annotto Bay,Jamaica

Natural Hazards - Flood risk assessments and damage estimations form integral parts of the disaster risk management in Jamaica, owing its vulnerability to hydrometeorological hazards. Although...     

Risk from Lahars in the Northern Valleys of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador)

Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) is famous for production of large-scale laharsthrough melting of ice and snow on its summit glacier. The lahar hazard inthe northern valleys of the volcano is assessed through numerical simulationof a maximum expected event. Considerations of past activity suggest that anevent like that of the 1877 eruption is the maximum expected lahar event.Review of the historical records reveals that northerly flowing lahars initiallyfollowed the Rio Pita and Rio Salto; at ``La Caldera', owing to a sharp bendin the channel, the lahar partly overflowed into Rio Santa Clara. The laharsalong Rio Pita and Rio Santa Clara were conveyed to the Los Chillos valley.The simulation, using an initial flow volume of 60 × 10<sup>6</sup> m<sup>3</sup>reproduces the maximum heights reached by the 1877 lahar along the northernvalley. The volume of lahar triggered by an eruption similar to that of 1877 isestimated to have a volume about 2/3 of that of 1877. This hypothesized reductionof volume is attributed to shrinkage of the summit glacier over the past century.However, dramatic population growth along valleys exposed to lahar hazard overthe past 100 years makes the present risk from lahars higher than in the past. Thesharp bend of ``La Caldera' represents a crucial site controlling lahar propagation:should a lahar overflow into the Santa Clara valley the risk increases considerablydue to the much higher concentration of human settlements along the valley. Resultsof a lahar simulation in which the entire flow is artificially forced into Rio Pita suggestthat construction of a dyke at ``La Caldera' to prevent overflow would substantiallyreduce the general risk in the area.     

An integrated GIS-based approach for geohazards risk assessment in coal mines

From the viewpoint of safety in underground coal mining, the most suitable mining panel is the one with minimum geological structures, the right machinery, and equipment selection, trained employee, and proficient stope management. Since the ground parameters are uncontrollable and inherent uncertainties exist, a high percent of risk will usually accompany the underground coal mining activities. The main purpose of this study is to present a geological–geotechnical risk assessment model for identification of high risk-prone areas in underground coal mines using an integrated GIS-geostatistics system. Tabas as the first mechanized and largest underground coal mine in Iran was selected as a case study in this study. Gas content of coal seam, Coal Mine Roof Rating (CMRR), initial in situ stress state, fault throw, and orientation were selected as hazard/risk factors. For estimating the amount of coal seam gas content, CMRR and initial in situ stress in unsampled areas and providing the prediction maps, geostatistics module in ArcGIS was used. Rock engineering system–interaction matrix method was used for attribute weight assignment. Next, the attribute layers were weighted, rated, and overlaid to create a final map of geohazards risk. The analysis results of final risk map indicate that about 45% of under study area is prone to high to very high geohazards risk. Comparison of the results with experiences obtained during the early part of the mine and mined-out panels showed generally good agreement with promising ideas. This highlights the potential application of the GIS-based approach for hazards detection and geohazards risk assessment in underground coal mines.     

GIS-based DRASTIC model for groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk assessment in the Peshawar District,Pakistan

Groundwater is the most economic natural source of drinking in urban and rural areas which are degraded due to high population growth and increased industrial development. We applied a GIS-based DRASTIC model in a populated urban area of Pakistan (Peshawar) to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution. Six input parameters—depth to phreatic/groundwater level, groundwater recharge, aquifer material, soil type, slope, and hydraulic conductivity—were used in the model to generate the groundwater vulnerable zones. Each parameter was divided into different ranges or media types, and ratings R?=?1?–?10 were assigned to each factor where 1 represented the very low impact on pollution potential and 10 represented very high impact. Weight multipliers W?=?1?–?5 were also used to balance and enhance the importance of each factor. The DRASTIC model scores obtained varied from 47 to 147, which were divided into three different zones: low, moderate, and high vulnerability to pollution. The final results indicate that about 31.22, 39.50, and 29.27% of the total area are under low, moderate, and high vulnerable zones, respectively. Our method presents a very simple and robust way to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution and helps the decision-makers to select appropriate landfill sites for waste disposals, and manage groundwater pollution problems efficiently.     

基于GIS的重点区域地质灾害风险评价

为治理河口拦门沙,实施了通过整治及疏浚的方式打通拦门沙的射阳港双导堤工程,导堤的功能定位为“导流、挡沙、减淤”。通过对江苏盐城射阳港海岸动力地貌等环境的调查,分析研究射阳港区不同时期的水下沉积物分布特征、不同历史时期的水下地形特征,同时研究不同时期的水质、底质沉积物、生态群落等指标数据,对射阳港双导堤建设的环境影响进行后评价。研究认为：双导堤工程完工后导堤口区域出现明显冲刷,导堤两侧出现淤积,颗粒变细,但对水质环境、底质沉积物环境和生态环境的影响不大,双导堤工程建设对环境影响的风险可控。     

Agronomic impact of tephra fallout from the 1995 and 1996 Ruapehu Volcano eruptions, New Zealand

 Eruptions from Ruapehu Volcano on 11 and 14 October 1995 and 17 June 1996 distributed at least 36×10⁶ m³ of sulphur(S)-rich tephra over the central and eastern North Island of New Zealand. The tephras added between 30–1500 kg ha^–1 S to at least 25 000 km² of land in primary production. Smaller but beneficial amounts of selenium (Se) and in some areas potassium and magnesium were also supplied. Addition of S to the soils in the form of sulphate and elemental S resulted in a drop in soil pH and an increase in pasture S contents within seven weeks of the eruptions. The soils affected by the tephra are naturally low in S and Se, but following the eruptions S was not required in fertilizer applications in many areas. The strongest and longest lasting effects of S and Se deposition were in high anion-retention soils particularly Hapludands (moist, moderately weathered soils, derived from volcanic ash). Soluble fluorine concentrations within the tephras were low compared to historic Icelandic and Chilean examples. However, pastoral livestock deaths were apparently caused by fluorosis in addition to starvation when tephra covered feed. The Ruapehu tephra contained very low concentrations of other soluble toxic elements. Received: 17 January 1997 · Accepted: 31 March 1997     

GIS-based multi-dimensional risk assessment of the grassland fire in northern China

This study presents a methodology for risk analysis and assessment to manage grassland fire in northern China based on the Geographical Information Systems from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, disaster science, and environmental science and so on. Using natural disaster and risk assessment theory, a multi-dimensional grassland fire risk index (MGFRI) was proposed by integrating weighted comprehensive method, analytic hierarchy process, and fuzzy gamma method into natural disaster risk index. The developed MGFRI will be an easily understandable tool to manage grassland fire by comparing the risk of regions in the northern China and relative contributions of various factors, for example, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and management ability. A scale of one to five was derived to measure the risk degree. It shows that 4.4?% of grassland falls in the category of ??very high?? risk, followed by 9.6, 19.1, 60.9, and 5.9?%, respectively, in the categories ??high??, ??middle??, ??low??, and ??very low??. The assessment results show reliability by test. The results in this study are intended to support local, provincial, and national government agencies to: (1) make resource allocation decisions; (2) make high-level planning decisions; and (3) raise public awareness of grassland fire risk, its causes, and ways to manage it.     

GIS-based flood risk assessment in suburban areas: a case study of the Fangshan District,Beijing

Suburban areas have become rapid development zones during China’s current urbanization. Generally, these areas are also regional precipitation centers that are prone to flood disasters. Therefore, it is important to assess the flood risk in suburban areas. In this study, flood risk was defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability based on disaster risk theory. A risk assessment index system was established, and the analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the index weight. The Fangshan District in Beijing, China, which is an example of a typical suburban area undergoing rapid urbanization, was selected for this study. Six factors were considered in relation to hazard, and three factors were considered for vulnerability. Each indicator was discretized, standardized, weighted, and then combined to obtain the final flood risk map in a geographical information system environment. The results showed that the high and very high risk zones in the Fangshan District were primarily concentrated on Yingfeng Street, Xingcheng Street, Xincheng Street, and Chengguanzhen Street. The comparison to an actual flood disaster suggested that the method was effective and practical. The method can quantitatively reflect the relative magnitude and spatial distribution patterns of flood risk in a region. The method can be applied easily to most suburban areas in China for land use planning and flood risk management.     

A simple and general methodology to calibrate seismic instruments for debris flow quantification: application to Cotopaxi and Tungurahua volcanoes (Ecuador)

Debris flows are hazardous phenomena occurring at volcanoes, and monitoring them has proved as challenging as imperative in several cases. The use of seismic instruments to measure and study the physical properties of debris flows has witnessed significant progress in the last years, with the use of improved sensors, innovative methodologies and high-resolution analysis. However, the application of such studies to the practical task of providing early warnings remains limited by the significant amount of infrastructural and technological resources commonly required for their deployment. In Ecuador, debris flows at volcanoes are detected by means of seismic instruments which are usually part of broader monitoring networks, thus requiring calibration to provide quantitative information about the flows and feed early-warning systems. In the present work, a theoretical approach based on the Buckingham Π-theorem is used to determine an expression that linearly correlates the seismic signal produced by a transiting debris flow with its discharge rate, for instruments installed in different substrata and at variable distances from the drainage. The expression is experimentally tested with Acoustic Flow Monitors and Broad-band seismometers installed in the vicinity of drainages at Tungurahua and Cotopaxi volcanoes, where actual debris flows occurred in relation to eruptive activity. The experiments consist in comparing the measured peak amplitude values of the seismic signal envelopes with the estimated peak discharge rates of several events. The results confirm the validity of the theoretical expression with linear correlations observed between the seismic amplitudes and the discharge rates, thus defining calibration expressions that can be generally applied to varied environments and instruments. The seismic instruments calibrated through this methodology can provide instantaneous and reliable predictions of debris flow discharge rates within less than an order of magnitude and only requiring limited data processing and storage. Such level of prediction could help to improve early warning systems based on seismic instruments installed in locations where more developed instrumental arrays are unavailable or unpractical.

     

A shift in eruption mode of Hekla volcano,Iceland, 3000 years ago: two-coloured Hekla tephra series,characteristics, dispersal and age

Hekla volcano is a major producer of large, widespread silicic tephras. About 3000 years ago, the dominant eruption mode shifted from infrequent large (>1 km³) to more frequent moderate (<1 km³) eruptions. In the following two millennia ≥20 explosive silicic-to-intermediate eruptions occurred, and six or more basaltic. Three categories can be identified with dacite/andesite to basaltic andesite in the oldest eruptions through basaltic andesite to basalt in the youngest eruptions. Ten tephra layers of the first category have distinct field characteristics: a pale lower unit and a dark upper unit (two coloured or TC-layers). Colour separation is sharp indicating a stratified magma chamber origin. The lower unit is dominantly andesitic (61–63% SiO₂), while the upper unit is basaltic andesite (53–57% SiO₂). Volumes of the eight largest TC-layers range from 0.2 to 0.7 km³ as freshly fallen. Radiocarbon and soil accumulation rate dates constrain the TC-layers to between 3000 and 2200 years ago. Two of these (~2890 and ~2920 b2k) are likely to occur overseas. Low SiO₂ in the last erupted tephra of the TC-layers is comparable to that of historical Hekla lavas, implying a final effusive phase. The Hekla edifice may, consequently, be younger than 3000 years.     

Evidence for a seismic activity mainly constituted of hybrid events at Cayambe volcano,Ecuador. Interpretation in a iced-domes volcano context

The high activity level of Hybrid Events (HE) detected beneath the Cayambe volcano since 1989 has been more thoroughly investigated with data from a temporary array. The unusual HE spectral content allows separating a high-frequency signal riding on a low-frequency one, with a probable single source. HEs are interpreted as high frequency VT events, produced by the interaction between magmatic heat and an underground water system fed by thaw water from the summital glacier, which trigger simultaneous low-frequency fluid resonance in the highly fractured adjacent medium. Pure VTs are interpreted as ‘aborted’ HEs occurring probably in the oldest and coldest part of the volcano complex. To cite this article: B. Guillier, J.-L. Chatelain, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

基于GIS的人工神经网络模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用

地质灾害区域评价和危险性区划结果的准确与否,主要取决于基础地质资料的可靠性及数学模型的合理性.为了提高数据的可靠性,利用GIS,在其支持下管理多源基础地学数据,进行数据处理,提取因素图层,剖分形成评价图元区域.然后在GIS基础上进行二次开发,将人工神经网络模型和GIS有机整合,这样GIS既为人工神经网络模型提供评价数据,又处理其评价结果数据,成图输出.本文遵从上述思路,结合长江三峡示范区(巴东-新滩)具体实例,探讨了人工神经网络和GIS结合(基于GIS的人工神经网络)的可能性和现实途径及其在区域地质灾害危险性区划中的应用前景.这种思路同样也适合其他数学模型与GIS的结合.     

Explosive eruptions of the Sarychev Peak volcano in the Holocene on Matua Island, the Central Kuriles: The tephra geochemistry

The first results of tephrochronological studies of the Sarychev Peak volcano on Matua Island in the Central Kuril Islands are presented and the eruptive evolution of the volcano in the Holocene is reconstructed. The volcanic products are typified and the general style of their geochemical evolution is reviewed on the basis of the distribution of the petrogenic oxides and trace elements in tephra samples taken bed-by-bed from the reference section of the soil-pyroclastic cover on Matua Island. The horizons of transit ashes are identified.     

Water losses risk assessment: an example from Carpathian karst

The multipurpose dam and reservoir “Bogovina” in the Crni Timok valley is one of several projects that have been initiated to improve water availability in Serbia. The site and height of the dam were initially proposed without consideration of risk factors such as water leakage or stability of the banks. Later, complex hydrogeological and speleological surveys and tests identified the potential of significant water losses from the reservoir area connected mainly to the karstic aquifer, and the nearby Bogovina cave system. The analyses show that once the reservoir is filled up, groundwater flow currently oriented towards the future reservoir would saturate the upper part of the karstified rocks, reactivate currently unsaturated pathways and form a reverse discharge outside of the reservoir area. In response to these findings, the dam design and technical details have been adapted accordingly: the dam height has been reduced by 9 m, and it is proposed that grouting and consolidation work be conducted both at the foundation of the dam and extensively on the embankments. It was concluded that although the proposed remedial measures cannot guarantee reservoir tightness, they can reduce the risk of large-scale leaking.     

黑龙江镜泊湖地区蛤蟆塘火山空落堆积物形成机制研究

火山碎屑物的粒度、粒形和分布特征蕴含着其形成机制和喷发的环境信息。基于镜泊湖地区蛤蟆塘火山的一个空落堆积剖面的野外地质和岩相学,以粒度分析和分形理论定量研究了火山碎屑物的粒度分布、粒形几何及其分形特征。蛤蟆塘火山空落碎屑粒度分布均为单峰式,由岩浆爆炸形成的空落浮岩粒度峰值较小,而由射气岩浆喷发形成的含细花岗岩碎屑夹层的碎屑粒度峰值较大。空落浮岩颗粒的类球度、长宽比和凸度都小于含细花岗岩碎屑夹层的数值,表明空落浮岩颗粒相对不规则的特点。利用多段幂律方法拟合了蛤蟆塘火山空落碎屑颗粒分布规律,发现空落浮岩颗粒存在四个幂律分布段（即对应四个分形维数）,这是由于岩浆初始破碎、火山通道内的二次破碎以及风力筛选作用等造成的;含细花岗岩碎屑夹层的碎屑分布有两个幂律分布段（对应两个明显不同的分形维数）,即浮岩和花岗岩碎屑的形成是因不同破碎机制造成的。     

Multi-hazard risk mapping and assessment on an active volcano: the GRINP project at Mount Cameroon

To help improve the safety of its population faced with natural disasters, the Cameroon Government, with the support of the French Government, initiated a programme of geological risk analysis and mapping on Mount Cameroon. This active volcano is subject to a variety of hazards: volcanic eruptions, slope instability and earthquakes. Approximately 450,000 people live or work around this volcano, in an area which includes one of Cameroon’s main economic resources. An original methodology was used for obtaining the information to reply to questions raised by the authorities. It involves several stages: identifying the different geological hazard components, defining each phenomenon’s threat matrix by crossing intensity and frequency indices, mapping the hazards, listing and mapping the exposed elements, analysing their respective values in economic, functional and strategic terms, establishing typologies for the different element-at-risk groups and assessing their vulnerability to the various physical pressures produced by the hazard phenomena, and establishing risk maps for each of the major element-at-risk groups (population, infrastructures, vegetation, atmosphere). At the end of the study we were able (a) to identify the main critical points within the area, and (b) provide quantified orders of magnitude concerning the dimensions of the risk by producing a plausible eruption scenario. The results allowed us to put forward a number of recommendations to the Cameroon Government concerning risk prevention and management. The adopted approach corresponds to a first level of response to the authorities. Later developments should make it possible to refine the quality of the methodology.