Impacts of climate change on the Qingjiang Watershed’s runoff change trend in China

Qingjiang River, the second largest tributary of the Yangtze River in Hubei Province, has taken on the important tasks for power generation and flood control in Hubei Province. The Qingjiang River watershed has a subtropical monsoon climate and, as a result, has dramatic diversity in its water resources. Recently, global warming and climate change have seriously affected the Qingjiang watershed’s integrated water resources management. In this article, general circulation model (GCM) and watershed hydrological models were applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on future runoff of Qingjiang Watershed. To couple the scale difference between GCM and watershed hydrological models, a statistical downscaling method based on the smooth support vector machine was used to downscale the GCM’s large-scale output. With the downscaled precipitation and evaporation, the Xin-anjiang hydrological model and HBV model were applied to predict the future runoff of Qingjiang Watershed under A2 and B2 scenarios. The preformance of the one-way coupling approach in simulating the hydrological impact of climate change in the Qingjiang watershed is evaluated, and the change trend of the future runoff of Qingjiang Watershed under the impacts of climate change is presented and discussed.     

Is climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains?

Climate change, manifested by an increase in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures and by more intense rainstorms, is becoming more evident in many regions. An important consequence of these changes may be an increase in landslides in high mountains. More research, however, is necessary to detect changes in landslide magnitude and frequency related to contemporary climate, particularly in alpine regions hosting glaciers, permafrost, and snow. These regions not only are sensitive to changes in both temperature and precipitation, but are also areas in which landslides are ubiquitous even under a stable climate. We analyze a series of catastrophic slope failures that occurred in the mountains of Europe, the Americas, and the Caucasus since the end of the 1990s. We distinguish between rock and ice avalanches, debris flows from de‐glaciated areas, and landslides that involve dynamic interactions with glacial and river processes. Analysis of these events indicates several important controls on slope stability in high mountains, including: the non‐linear response of firn and ice to warming; three‐dimensional warming of subsurface bedrock and its relation to site geology; de‐glaciation accompanied by exposure of new sediment; and combined short‐term effects of precipitation and temperature. Based on several case studies, we propose that the following mechanisms can significantly alter landslide magnitude and frequency, and thus hazard, under warming conditions: (1) positive feedbacks acting on mass movement processes that after an initial climatic stimulus may evolve independently of climate change; (2) threshold behavior and tipping points in geomorphic systems; (3) storage of sediment and ice involving important lag‐time effects. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

21st century climate change: where has all the geomorphology gone?

This Commentary draws together recently published work relating to the relationship between climate change and geomorphology to address the surprising observation that geomorphic work seems to have had little impact upon the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. However, recent papers show that methodological innovation has allowed geomorphological reconstruction over timescales highly relevant to late 20th century and 21st century climate change. In turn, these and other developments are allowing links to be made between climatic variability and geomorphology, to begin to predict ‘geomorphic futures’ and also to appreciate the role that geomorphic processes play in the flux of carbon and the carbon cycle. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of climate change in the “significant impact zone” affected by aerosols over eastern China in warm seasons

Through analysis of the distribution pattern and changing characteristics of atmospheric aerosols over the East Asia region during warm seasons in recent 20 a and beyond as well as their possible interactive relationship with a variety of meteorological elements, it is found that the high-value zone of aerosol optical depth derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), its significant negative correlation zones in terms of sunshine duration (SD) and surface air temperature (SAT) and its significant positive correlation zones with low-level cloud amount (LCC) are co-located in the South China region during warm periods. Based on this finding, the region is referred to as a “significant impact zone” (SI zone) affected by aerosols. Then, a comparative analysis is made on variation differences of observed SAT, SD and LCC, etc. in different regions. It is also found that the LCC is increased and the SD is decreased within the “SI zone” over eastern China during the warm season. These characteristics are more evident than those beyond the zone, while the warming trend within the zone is evidently weaker than that outside it. Studies show that since recent 20 a, under the influence of aerosols, the LCC tend to increase substantially with a clear decrease of SD and an unnoticeable warming trend within the “SI zone”. Comparing with the climate change beyond the zone, the difference is significant. Therefore, the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate is possibly one of the contributions to the difference of climate change existed between the southern and northern parts of the Eastern China during a warm season. Supported by the International Sci-Tech Cooperative Project under the auspices of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (No. 2004DFA06100)     

What impact will climate change have on rural groundwater supplies in Africa?

Abstract

One of the key uncertainties surrounding the impacts of climate change in Africa is the effect on the sustainability of rural water supplies. Many of these water supplies abstract from shallow groundwater (<50 m) and are the sole source of safe drinking water for rural populations. Analysis of existing rainfall and recharge studies suggests that climate change is unlikely to lead to widespread catastrophic failure of improved rural groundwater supplies. These require only 10 mm of recharge annually per year to support a hand pump, which should still be achievable for much of the continent, although up to 90 million people may be affected in marginal groundwater recharge areas (200–500 mm annual rainfall). Lessons learnt from groundwater source behaviour during recent droughts, substantiated by groundwater modelling, indicate that increased demand on dispersed water points, as shallow unimproved sources progressively fail, poses a much greater risk of individual source failure than regional resource depletion. Low yielding sources in poor aquifers are most at risk. Predicted increased rainfall intensity may also increase the risk of contamination of very shallow groundwater. Looking to the future, an increase in major groundwater-based irrigation systems, as food prices rise and surface water becomes more unreliable, may threaten long-term sustainability as competition for groundwater increases. To help prepare for increased climate variability, it is essential to understand the balance between water availability, access to water, and use/demand. In practice, this means increasing access to secure domestic water, understanding and mapping renewable and non-renewable groundwater resources, promoting small-scale irrigation and widening the scope of early warning systems and mapping to include access to water.     

Assessment of future water resources and water scarcity considering the factors of climate change and social–environmental change in Han River basin,Korea

Water resources are influenced by various factors such as weather, topography, geology, and environment. Therefore, there are many difficulties in evaluating and analyzing water resources for the future under climate change. In this paper, we consider climate, land cover and water demand as the most critical factors affecting change in future water resources. We subsequently introduce the procedures and methods employed to quantitatively evaluate the influence of each factor on the change in future water resources. In order to consider the change in land cover, we apply the Multi-Regression approach from the cellular automata-Markov Chain technique using two independent variables, temperature and rainfall. In order to estimate the variation of the future runoff due to climate change, the data of the SRES A2 climate change scenario were entered in the SLURP model to simulate a total of 70 years, 2021–2090, of future runoff in the Han River basin in Korea. However, since a significant amount of uncertainties are involved in predicting the future runoff due to climate change, 50 sets of daily precipitation data from the climate change scenario were generated and used for the SLURP model to forecast 50 sets of future daily runoff. This process was used to minimize the uncertainty that may occur when the prediction process is performed. For future water balance analysis, the future water demand was divided into low demand, medium demand and high demand categories. The three water demand scenarios and the 50 daily runoff scenarios were combined to form 150 sets of input data. The monthly water balance within the Han River basin was then calculated using this data and the Korean version of Water Evaluation and Planning System model. As a result, the future volume of water scarcity of the Han River basin was predicted to increase in the long term. It is mostly due to the monthly shift in the runoff characteristic, rather than the change in runoff volume resulting from climate change.     

Characteristics of climate change in the “significant impact zone” affected by aerosols over eastern China in warm seasons

Through analysis of the distribution pattern and changing characteristics of atmospheric aerosols over the East Asia region during warm seasons in recent 20 a and beyond as well as their possible interac- tive relationship with a variety of meteorological elements, it is found that the high-value zone of aerosol optical depth derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), its significant negative correlation zones in terms of sunshine duration (SD) and surface air temperature (SAT) and its significant positive correlation zones with low-level cloud amount (LCC) are co-located in the South China region during warm periods. Based on this finding, the region is referred to as a "significant impact zone" (SI zone) affected by aerosols. Then, a comparative analysis is made on variation differ- ences of observed SAT, SD and LCC, etc. in different regions. It is also found that the LCC is increased and the SD is decreased within the "SI zone" over eastern China during the warm season. These characteristics are more evident than those beyond the zone, while the warming trend within the zone is evidently weaker than that outside it. Studies show that since recent 20 a, under the influence of aerosols, the LCC tend to increase substantially with a clear decrease of SD and an unnoticeable warming trend within the "SI zone". Comparing with the climate change beyond the zone, the difference is significant. Therefore, the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate is possibly one of the contri- butions to the difference of climate change existed between the southern and northern parts of the Eastern China during a warm season.     

Holocene climate change in the Central Tibetan Plateau inferred by lacustrine sediment geochemical records

Multi-proxies of lacustrine sediments, such as total carbon (TC), total organic carbon (TOC), total inorganic carbon (TIC), total nitrogen (TN), total sulfur (TS), hydrogen index (HI), oxygen index (OI) and stable carbon isotopic composition of organic matter (δ 13Corg), were analyzed using a 7.3 m core from Zigê Tangco. The source of the organic matter in the sediment was mainly from autochthonous phytoplankton, therefore the significances of proxies can be interpreted as that high TOC, TOC/TS, HI and δ13Corg values, low TC, TIC values corresponded to warm and wet climatic condition, and vice versa. The process of climatic development in the Zigê Tangco region was hence recovered. During the early and Mid-Holocene, the climate was warm and wet and intensive cold events occurred during the periods of 8600 to 8400 cal a BP and 7400 to 7000 cal a BP. In the second half of Holocene, the climate became cold and dry gradually. The palaeoclimatic process during Holocene in Zigê Tangco region matched well with that in Co Ngoin region which is ca 40 km to the south-east. Therefore this palaeoclimatic process represents the Holocene climatic feature in the Central Tibetan Plateau which has the same pattern in the Northern Tibetan Plateau, but the time and duration of some climatic events might be different. We can conclude that in Holocene solar insolation controlled the climatic pattern on the central Tibetan Plateau.     

Characteristics of the difference and change in the comprehensive physical properties of rocks

Introduction The medium of the earth is made up of gas, liquid, and solid. The solid is the main material to form the structure of the earth, so it is very significant to study the solid matter of the earth. Rock, as a solid medium of the earth is a common object studied by geophysicists. The measurement of the comprehensive physical properties of rocks (ZHAO, et al, 1996; GUO, et al, 1989) considered that the minimal cell of rock is the atoms of chemical element, and all sorts of the rock …     

Distribution of lipids in modern soils from various regions with continuous climate (moisture-heat) change in China and their climate significance

Total 26 modern soil samples were collected from various regions under different climate conditions from tropical to arid temperate in China and systematically analyzed for their organic matters by GC/MS in order to evaluate climatic impacts on soil organic components. Abundant lipids molecules were recognized, including n-alkanes, n-alkenones, and long-chain branched alkanes. We find the pre- dominance of main peaks of long-chain n-alkanes (nC29, nC31, nC33) and short-chain ones (nC16, nC17, nC18) records information of soil generation in warm-humid and cold-dry regions. The proportion of n-alkanes (nC16 nC17 nC18) to (nC29 nC31 nC33) varies in good agreement with moisture-heat conditions and thus probably can serve as a new index for climate change. The ratios of C21-/nC22 , nC17/nC31 and (nC15 nC17 nC19) / ( nC27 nC29 nC31) of n-alkanes, indicating respectively input ratios of lower bacterial alga, aquatic organisms, and higher plants and terraneous organisms, co-vary well in different climate regions from forest to grassland and desert, suggesting that they have also reflected the difference of climates between monsoon region and inland one. The C21-/C22 ratio of n-alkan-2-one records largely the discrepancy of temperature from north to south of China bordered by the Qinling Mountains, but less humidity. The C21-/C22 ratio of n-alkan-3-ones changes well with climatic factors, such as tem- perature and humidity. The biogenic source of series A-D long-chain branched alkanes may be derived from some kinds of special epiphyte that most likely live in weak oxic-anoxic and moisture-heat envi- ronments, suggesting their distribution record as well some information on climatic change. All these researches demonstrate that the distributions of lipids molecules in modern soils in China record well signals of climates from quite different climatic regions, and can serve as important climatic proxies to reveal climatic change over China.     

Features and trends of the environmental change in the arid areas in Central Asia

RS-monitoring index systems of ecological environment changes at a large scale, based on empirical data and trends in environmental change in Central Asia, are developed using NOAA and MODIS data. Moreover, with the help of mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis, the degrees, hazards and distribution extent of various possible ecological problems are discussed, environmental changes in Central Asia in 1990 and 2005 are separately evaluated, and dynamic changes in the environment in Central Asia over a 15-year period are analyzed. The results reveal that during the 15-year period from 1990 to 2005, areas of degenerated vegetation in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kirghizstan and Tadzhikistan were enlarged by 0.069×105 km2, 0.081×105 km2, 0.296×105 km2, 0.022×105 km2 and 0.112×105 km2, respectively. The ecological environment in Central Asia was in the state of significant degeneration and even deterioration. This study proves that NOAA and MODIS data can be used to successfully monitor the environment and provide useful results.     

The performance of benthic indicators of ecological change in Adriatic coastal lagoons: throwing the baby with the water?

The ecological quality of 127 stations from six Adriatic coastal lagoons was assessed using a suite of biotic indices: H', d, 1-lambda', Delta(*), Delta(+), W, AMBI, BOPA and FINE. The analysis indicated the difficulties in deriving and using the existing indices from benthic communities in highly variable environmental conditions in coastal lagoons. Different metrics rendered different results: the use of H' resulted in the classification of all stations as "Moderate/Poor/Bad", whereas BOPA classified the majority of the stations as "Good/High". Using Delta(+), most of the stations resulted as "Not anthropogenically impacted", while the W-statistics gave 82 stations as "Undisturbed" and 45 as "Moderately/Grossly disturbed". AMBI classified 55 stations as "High/Good" and 72 as "Moderate/Poor/Bad", whereas those were 32 and 95 with FINE, respectively. The latter, which was developed just for Italian coastal lagoons, was the most conservative among the indices studied. Yet, it showed the highest correlation with the species/abundance matrix. Using indices developed for coastal waters in lagoons can give the distorted indication that the water body is degraded, when it might be just a natural, low diversity, high abundance community, i.e. a lagoonal community. Moreover, the outcome of the use of a certain index has a financial dimension such that lagoons misclassified as being "poor status" will then require expensive remediation measures. For the lagoons studied, there is probably an adequate quality and quantity of benthic data available for making management decisions, but this study highlights the limits of the existing indices for lagoonal ecosystems. The challenge for the next future is to couple long term conservation of the natural environment with the highly productive activities carried out in lagoonal ecosystems.     

Regional instrumental series in reconstructions of global changes in the Earth’s climate

The possibility to apply long-term regional series to reconstruct the Earth’s global temperature in the past is considered. It is shown using symbolic analysis methods that significant (on the so-called order patterns) are relations of time series of St. Petersburg temperature with certain regional and global series. New sets of global temperature reconstructions, starting from the mid-18th century, are constructed on the basis of the previously proposed MSR and DPS methods.     

Modelling regional impacts of climate change on water resources: the Júcar basin,Spain

Abstract

In this paper we analyse all currently available simulated climate scenarios, proposed by the Spanish Agency of Meteorology (AEMET), for the period 2010–2040 on the geographical area covered by the Júcar River basin, located in eastern Spain. This is done through the validation of these scenarios using historical records, and by assessing the impact on water resources for the next 30 years by means of a hydrological model. By taking the period 1960–1990 as the control period, a careful comparison of its historical records against AEMET scenarios is performed. Although temperature records are modelled properly, precipitation data are widely underestimated in a range from 8% to 29%. This wide variability observed in the control period is also found in the precipitation scenarios for the period 2010–2040. The impact on water resources shows a great degree of dispersion, ranging from –13.45% to 18.1% with a mean value of –2.13%.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor F. Hattermann     

Variations in the power spectrum density of whistlers in the frequency band 8–40 kHz during earthquake preparation

Spectral density estimates for distant whistlers in subranges of 8–12, 12–20, 20–30, and 30–40 kHz, based on data from stations located at distances of 250–300 km between each other, during the preparation of M = 5–6.2 earthquakes are obtained, and spectral density ratios are analyzed. It is shown that a stable decrease in spectral density ratios is observed for high frequency bands for a couple of stations which are the closest to and the farthest from the epicenter during a period of several days before an event (up to 2–3 weeks before it). Another peculiarity found is an increase in spectral density ratios several hours before an earthquake. These features can be used as short-term precursors.     

Response of grain size of Quaternary gravels to climate and tectonics in the northern Tibetan Plateau

The widely distributed thick gravel deposits along the rim of the Tibetan Plateau have been long thought to be the product of rapid tectonic uplift of the plateau. However, this has been challenged by recent works that suggest these thick gravels may be the result of climate change. In this paper we carried out a detailed field measurement of gravel grain sizes from the Jiuquan and Gobi Gravel Beds in the top of the Laojunmiao section in the Jiuxi Basin in the northern margin of Qilian Mts. (northern Tibetan Plateau). The results suggest that the grain sizes of the Jiuquan and Gobi Gravel Beds over the last 0.8 Ma are characterized by nine coarse-fine cycles having strong 100-ka and 41-ka periodicities that correlate well with the loess-paleosol monsoon record and isotopic global climatic record from deep sea sediments as well as by a long trend of coarsening in gravel grain size. The coarse gravel layers were formed during the warm-humid interglaciations while the fine layers correspond to the cold-dry glaciations. Because the paleoclimate in NW China began to get dramatically drier after the mid-Pleistocene, we think the persistent coarsening of gravel grain size was most probably caused by the rapid uplift of the northern Tibetan Plateau, and that the orbital scale cyclic variations in gravel grain size were driven by orbital forcing factors that were superimposed on the tectonically-forced long-term coarsening trend in gravel size. These findings also shed new light on the interaction results of climate and tectonics in relation to the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.