Modeling of inundation dynamics on Banda Aceh,Indonesia during the great Sumatra tsunamis December 26, 2004

The tsunami inundation flows on Banda Aceh, Indonesia reached 5 km inland during the December 26, 2004, event and devastated most of the houses, buildings, and infrastructure along the coast and killed more than 167,000 people. The overland flows from the northwest coast and the west coast collided at Lampisang village approximately 3.7 km from Ulee Lheue (northwest coast) and 6.8 km from Lhok Nga (west coast) as reported by survivors. Inundation modeling based on the nonlinear shallow-water wave equations reproduces the inundation pattern and demonstrates a colliding of the overland flows. The model suggests that wave characteristics on the northwest coast of Banda Aceh were different from those on the waves that impacted upon the west coast. The areas, which experienced higher inundation levels, did not always experience greatest overland flow speeds, and the damage areas mostly coincide with the flow speed distribution rather than the runup and inundation depth.     

Numerical modeling of the morphological change in Lhok Nga, west Banda Aceh, during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: understanding tsunami deposits using a forward modeling method

A coupled hydrostatic and morph-dynamic model COMCOT-SED was used to investigate the morphological change in Lhok Nga bay during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, and the coupled model predicted the thickness of tsunami deposits in agreement with the measured ones. The relationship between the characteristics of tsunami deposit and flow hydrodynamics was discussed in details. Phenomena such as landward thinning in deposit thickness, landward fining in grain size, and fining upwards in grain size are commonly used to identify tsunami deposits and were examined in this case study. We also discussed the effects of sediment supplies and the constraints that can be put on the earthquake parameters using the information derived from tsunami deposits. This study shows that the model presented in this paper is capable of simulating extreme tsunami events (tsunami wave height ~30?m) in a large domain and that forward models of tsunami sediment transport can be a promising tool to help tsunami geologists understand tsunami deposits.     

Probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis for design criteria development of a coastal area in the city of Banda Aceh

Both seismic and tsunami hazards design criteria are essential input to the rehabilitation and long-term development of city of Banda Aceh Post Sumatra 2004 (M _w=9.3) disaster. A case study to develop design criteria for future disaster mitigation of the area is presented. The pilot study consists of probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis indicates that peak ground acceleration at baserock for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years is 0.3 and 0.55 g, respectively. The analysis also provides spectral values at short (T=0.2 s) and long period (T=1.0 s) motions. Some non-linear time-domain earthquake response analyses for soft, medium, and hard site-class were conducted to recommend design response spectra for each site-class. In addition, tsunami inundation maps generated from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis were developed through tsunami wave propagation analysis and run-up numerical modeling associated with its probability of tsunamigenic earthquake source potential. Both the seismic and tsunami hazard curve and design criteria are recommended as contribution of this study for design criteria, as part of the disaster mitigation effort in the development process of the city. The methodology developed herein could be applied to other seismic and tsunami disaster potential areas.     

Repeating aftershocks of the great 2004 Sumatra and 2005 Nias earthquakes

We investigate repeating aftershocks associated with the great 2004 Sumatra–Andaman (Mw 9.2) and 2005 Nias–Simeulue (Mw 8.6) earthquakes by cross-correlating waveforms recorded by the regional seismographic station PSI and teleseismic stations. We identify 10 and 18 correlated aftershock sequences associated with the great 2004 Sumatra and 2005 Nias earthquakes, respectively. The majority of the correlated aftershock sequences are located near the down-dip end of a large afterslip patch. We determine the precise relative locations of event pairs among these sequences and estimate the source rupture areas. The correlated event pairs identified are appropriately referred to as repeating aftershocks, in that the source rupture areas are comparable and significantly overlap within a sequence. We use the repeating aftershocks to estimate afterslip based on the slip-seismic moment scaling relationship and to infer the temporal decay rate of the recurrence interval. The estimated afterslip resembles that measured from the near-field geodetic data to the first order. The decay rate of repeating aftershocks as a function of lapse time t follows a power-law decay 1/t^p with the exponent p in the range 0.8–1.1. Both types of observations indicate that repeating aftershocks are governed by post-seismic afterslip.     

Tsunamis Observed on and Near the Turkish Coast

For centuries, inhabitants of coastal areas have suffered from the effects of tsunamis. Turkey, with a coastline of 8333 km, has experienced many tsunamis.Historical records reveal that, during the observation period over 3000 years, the coastal and surrounding areas of Turkey have been affected by more than ninety tsunamis. These tended to cluster around the Marmara Sea, the city of Istanbul and the gulfs of Izmit, Izmir, Fethiye and Iskenderun. Each of the tsunami occurrences surveyed in this paper deserves further individual study. The most extensive available information concerns the tsunamis associated with the Istanbul Earthquakes of 1509 and 1894, the Eastern Marmara Earthquake in 1963 and that of Izmit in 1999,which disturbed the Marmara Sea; the Earthquake of 1939 in Erzincan ineastern Anatolia; and the 1968 Bartn Earthquake, which affected Fatsa and Amasra on the Black Sea. In addition to these, it is known that a tsunami occurred in 1598 on the shores of the Black Sea in connection with an earthquake at Amasya in northern Anatolia.     

Characteristics of ring seismicity in different depth ranges before large and great earthquakes in the Sumatra region

Characteristics of the seismicity in depth ranges 0–33 and 34–70 km before ten large and great (M _w = 7.0−9.0) earthquakes of 2000–2008 in the Sumatra region are studied, as are those in the seismic gap zones where no large earthquakes have occurred since at least 1935. Ring seismicity structures are revealed in both depth ranges. It is shown that the epicenters of the main seismic events lie, as a rule, close to regions of overlap or in close proximity to “shallow” and “deep” rings. Correlation dependences of ring sizes and threshold earthquakes magnitudes on energy of the main seismic event in the ring seismicity regions are obtained. Identification of ring structures in the seismic gap zones (in the regions of Central and South Sumatra) suggests active processes of large earthquake preparation proceed in the region. The probable magnitudes of imminent seismic events are estimated from the data on the seismicity ring sizes.     

Thermal waters in the Lower Yarmouk Gorge and their relation to surrounding aquifers

Sources and mineralization of groundwaters from Cretaceous A7/B2 and B4 limestone aquifers in the Golan and Ajloun Heights are derived from conjoint discussion of stable isotopes of water and sulphate, major ion chemistry, rare earth distribution patterns and the (hydro)geological setting. Isotope fractionation of precipitation was used to derive elevation and continental influence of recharge areas. Positive shift of δ¹⁸O and δ²H occur due to evaporation before replenishment and the interaction with basalts. Major infiltration areas for Golan Heights are the limy foothills of the Mt. Hermon and for the Ajloun Heights the Plateau itself. To a less degree, precipitation infiltrates also the basaltic catchments. Groundwaters are mineralized by water/rock (i) variably altered limestones by diagenesis, (ii) evaporates and seawater brines enclosed in limestone matrix and (iii) locally occurring basaltic intrusiva. In the Yarmouk Gorge, a deep-seated brine of the Ha’on type ascends and mixes with the fresh shallow groundwater.Contrasting the macro chemical composition, REY distribution patterns indicate the lithology of the recharge areas. Infiltration over basalts results in REY patterns distinctly different to those derived from limy catchments.REY and isotope fingerprints prove that water from the Syrian Hauran Plateau is recharging springs and wells in the lowermost Yamouk gorge. The basaltic cover of the Golan Heights is of minor importance for recharge of the underlying A7/B2 aquifer, which becomes recharged at the foothills of Mt. Hermon and gets confined southwards. Even the wells in the basaltic cover receive water from the underlying limestone aquifer.Anomalous heat flux near the Yarmouk gorge and locally in the western escarpment of the Ajloun may be produced by ascending fluids from greater depth and/or by basaltic intrusions.     

迎接油气储层建模理论、应用的大发展——从2007年国际石油地质统计学大会谈起

2007年国际石油地质统计学大会的成果表明,运用地质研究、地震解释、生产动态三方面的数据并与模型相结合,是当前油气储层建模理论和应用的一个发展趋势。油藏描述、油藏表征及储层建模发展的整个过程,始终体现了这种多学科的融合。由于地质统计学的促进,储层建模技术具备了分析和处理各种主要由地下地质环境引起的不确定性的能力。地质研究对储层建模的核心作用主要体现为相控建模原则的确立和地质概念模型的应用上。最后,研究了储层建模中地震数据的参与和生产动态数据的结合等方面的发展。     

从苏门答腊-安达曼到日本东北:特大地震及其引发的超级海啸的启示

2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼MW9.1地震及印度洋超级海啸,以及2011年日本东北MW9.0地震及海啸与核泄漏,给人类带来了巨大的灾难。这两次灾难的接连发生充分暴露了迄今我们对于地震发生规律的认识水平还是很低的,启示我们需要继续加强对地震发生的规律性与地震预测预报的研究。在地震危险性评估中,要努力克服经验性方法的局限性,加强地应力测量以确定断层接近破裂的程度,更直接地估计地震危险性;要最大限度地运用地震、大地测量、地质、地貌等所有可资利用的资料,尽快将学术研究成果应用于防灾减灾实践。要重视不同观测资料的整合集成。要加强学科与学科之间的交叉渗透,自然科学与社会科学之间的合作交流,以及科学界与决策者和社会公众的相互沟通。要加强在海域对地震、海啸的多学科、多手段的监测工作,加强地震破裂过程复杂性的理论与应用研究,提高对地震、海啸(包括局地海啸)的监测、预测预报与预警水平。     

Tsunamis on the Russian Pacific coast: history and current situation

The Pacific coast, including the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kuriles, the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Bering Sea, is the main tsunami-prone area in Russia. The Far East tsunamis are much more frequent, extensive, and devastating than those in the Black, Caspian, Baltic, and White Sea coasts, as well as in major inland lakes of Baikal, Ladoga, etc. The tsunami catalog of the Russian Far East from 1737 to present lists 110 events with mainly near-field and few far-field sources (105 and 5 events, respectively). Most of the catalogued tsunamis (95 cases) were induced by earthquakes, and few events had volcanic (3), landsliding (2), meteorological (3), and unknown (2) triggers. Altogether there were eleven devastating tsunamis for the period of observations, with > 10 m heights, two of which were great events in 1737 and 1952, when the waves exceeded 20 m. The wave heights were in the range 2.5-10 m in fifteen hazardous tsunami events and within the tidal range (~ 1-2 m) in thirteen cases; the other events were small and detectable only instrumentally. Thus, the average recurrence times for tsunamis of different magnitudes in the Russian Pacific coast are 25 years for devastating events and 10-15 years for hazardous tsunamis; small tsunamis occur almost every year, according to statistics for the last sixty years collected at the regional network of tide stations. The topics discussed in the paper concern the completeness and reliability of the Far East catalog; distribution of tsunami events in space and time; correlation between the intensity of tsunami and the magnitude of the causative undersea earthquake; tsunami recurrence; tsunami warning; and long-term hazard assessment and mapping.     

亚洲东部“大三角”地震构造区的周边和深部动力环境

亚洲东部存在一个巨大的三角形地震构造区域,大体上,喜马拉雅山脉、帕米尔—天山—阿尔泰山—贝加尔和东经105°线是它的3个边界,主要覆盖中国和蒙古国西部众多高原、山脉及山间盆地。三角区内现今构造活动和地震广泛强烈,地壳破碎,显示不均匀的块体边界和块内变形;区外基本上是稳定的刚性陆块,地震很少,变形较弱,处于整体缓慢运动之中。这个宽阔的板内变形区起源于印度、菲律宾海—西太平洋和欧亚三大板块之间的动力作用以及深部地幔流的影响。向北快速运动的印度次大陆已近水平地插入到西藏板块下,沿喜马拉雅弧产生多种运动和变形,并向亚洲内部远距离地扩散。沿东经95°～100°,向北的地壳运动向东和东南方向偏转,阻截了喜马拉雅弧东端的北向运动;而在喜马拉雅弧西端,帕米尔继续向北挤进中亚,受天山—阿尔泰山—贝加尔一线西北側稳定地壳的限制,扩散的变形被中国、蒙古、俄罗斯边境地区一系列EW向和NW向的老断层吸收并在它们的西端终止。菲律宾海—西太平洋向欧亚大陆的消减-俯冲导致沿海沟-岛弧的漫长而狭窄的地震带,但对亚洲大陆的水平挤压较小,未能阻挡亚洲大陆东部向东移动。其部分原因可能是俯冲板片受到来自欧亚大陆下的ES向地幔流的推挤,这个ES向地幔流与来自印度下面的N向地幔流在西藏中部汇合并向东偏转,在大尺度上与GPS观测到的地表移动图像一致。     

西藏澜沧江班达水电站水上钻探施工技术

在水上尤其是在水流比较快的江、河上进行钻探施工,与陆地相比,具有施工难度大、危险系数高、钻探效率低等难点。大型水电站往往选在高山峡谷之中,前期勘探条件极为恶劣,水上钻场运送极为困难,而河心孔钻探是一种有效验证河床覆盖层厚度的技术手段,在水电站勘探中通常会遇到。本文根据班达水电站勘探水上钻探工程,介绍该项目水上钻探施工所用的油桶筏制作安装及参数计算和验证,锚固使用的钢丝绳选择及强度验证,江面过渡设备优化设计,保护套管下入方式和垂直度校核,油桶筏转移,覆盖层成孔及取心工艺,坚硬强研磨基岩钻进工艺等关键技术。     

雅鲁藏布江大拐弯入口段泥石流特征及应对措施

雅鲁藏布江大拐弯入口段活动的地质构造、特殊的地形与气候条件酿就了暴雨泥石流及冰川泥石流等地质灾害。近60a来,则隆弄冰川泥石流曾两度摧毁直白村;鲁霞-德阳段暴雨泥石流的洪积扇已经深入雅鲁藏布江中,该段河道处于半阻塞状态。两处地点的泥石流对上下游村庄、城镇及设施带来严重威胁。依据地貌调查及室内DEM定量分析,了解泥石流地质灾害的空间分布特征及其成因,对前人认为则隆弄冰川泥石流堰塞雅鲁藏布江造成上游回水成湖淹没米林、林芝等地的观点提出了新的看法;米林、林芝古淹没事件可能是对多地点泥石流爆发的响应。对米林—加拉一线不同地点不同类型的泥石流灾害可能造成的不良环境效应进行评估后提出几点应对措施。     

Tsunamis from the Arica-Tocopilla source region and their effects on ports of Central Chile

The last great earthquake in northern Chile took place in 1877, and the ensuing tsunami affected not only that region but also Central Chile. For example, the Bay of Concepción, which is located 1,500 km south of the tsunami source, experienced an inundation height of around 3 m. Ports are important in the Chilean economy, due to the fact that a large percentage of Chilean exports (excluding copper) use ports located in Central Chile. With this in mind, the authors investigated the potential effect of an 1877-like tsunami on the main ports of Central Chile. To do this, the dispersive wave model Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs was used. In addition, the first tsunami forecast model for Talcahuano, inside the Bay of Concepción, was developed by means of numerical simulation of several events of different moment magnitudes. The results showed that most of the important ports (Valparaiso, San Antonio, San Vicente and Coronel) had inundation heights on the order of just 1 m, while inundation levels in Talcahuano reached up to 3.5 m. The forecast model for Talcahuano uses only earthquake magnitude, focal depth and tide level to determine tsunami inundation heights. In addition, the tsunami arrival time was computed to be 3 h, and the maximum tsunami amplitude takes place at 4 h and 45 min after the earthquake.     

Geochemistry and stable isotope composition of the Berkeley pit lake and surrounding mine waters,Butte, Montana

Samples of mine water from Butte, Montana were collected for paired geochemical and stable isotopic analysis. The samples included two sets of depth profiles from the acidic Berkeley pit lake, deep groundwater from several mine shafts in the adjacent flooded underground mine workings, and the acidic Horseshoe Bend Spring. Beginning in July-2000, the spring was a major surface water input into the Berkeley pit lake. Vertical trends in major ions and heavy metals in the pit lake show major changes across a chemocline at 10–20 m depth. The chemocline most likely represents the boundary between pre-2000 and post-2000 lake water, with lower salinity, modified Horseshoe Bend Spring water on top of higher salinity lake water below. Based on stable isotope results, the deep pit lake has lost approximately 12% of its initial water to evaporation, while the shallow lake is up to 25% evaporated. The stable isotopic composition of SO₄ in the pit lake is similar to that of Horseshoe Bend Spring, but differs markedly from SO₄ in the surrounding flooded mine shafts. The latter is heavier in both δ³⁴S and δ¹⁸O, which may be due to dissolution of hypogene SO₄ minerals (anhydrite, gypsum, barite) in the ore deposit. The isotopic and geochemical evidence suggests that much of the SO₄ and dissolved heavy metals in the deep Berkeley pit lake were generated in situ, either by leaching of soluble salts from the weathered pit walls as the lake waters rose, or by subaqueous oxidation of pyrite on the submerged mine walls by dissolved Fe(III). Laboratory experiments were performed to contrast the isotopic composition of SO₄ formed by aerobic leaching of weathered wallrock vs. SO₄ from anaerobic pyrite oxidation. The results suggest that both processes were likely important in the evolution of the Berkeley pit lake.     

Particulate manganese dynamics in Gulf Stream warm-core rings and surrounding waters of the N.W. Atlantic

Manganese has been measured in size-fractionated paniculate matter profiles obtained by large volume in situ filtration of the upper 1000 m of the N.W. Atlantic as part of the Warm Core Rings Experiment (WCRE) in 1982. Environments sampled included Warm Core Rings (WCR) 82B and 82H, the entrainment zone at the edge of these rings, the Slope Water surrounding rings, and the Gulf Stream (GS) and Sargasso Sea (SS) from which the rings formed.Manganese concentrations ranged from 10 pmol kg⁻¹ to 10,000 pmol kg⁻¹ with the extreme values observed in the quasi-isolated core waters of WCR 82B and in a tongue of shelf water at the periphery of WCR 82B, respectively. The majority of the Mn was in the 1–53 μm particle size fraction and most Mn was probably close to 1 μm in size. Mn showed no correlation with major biogenic phases indicating that formation by local biological processes was not an important source. Instead, most paniculate Mn present in the waters sampled originated in reducing sediments at the continental margin.A manganese budget for the quasi-isolated core waters of WCR 82B between February and June 1982 showed that most Mn removal was by the aggregation of the small Mn-oxyhydroxide particles into fecal material, followed by sedimentation.Calculations show that WCRs cause offshore particulate Mn transports from the continental margin between 66°W and Cape Hatteras of 8.5 × 10⁴ to 14 × 10⁴ mol d⁻¹ with most derived from the continental shelf. Only 4% of the shelf derived Mn becomes entrained into WCRs and the rest is left to disperse in the Slope Water or enter the circulation of the Gulf Stream. The WCR-induced offshore Mn transports may account for a large fraction of the Mn flux to sediments on the continental slope and upper continental rise.     

Impacts of saline water irrigation and shrimp pond discharges on the surrounding waters of a coastal district in the Mekong delta of Vietnam

This study discusses impacts of saline water irrigation and shrimp pond discharges on the surrounding waters in the coastal Cai Nuoc district, Mekong delta of Vietnam where the landscape was re-shaped by shrimp aquaculture since 2000. Sampling took place at the end of the wet season of 2009 in the district (as aquaculture sites) and a nearby freshwater-dominated reference site. The aquaculture sites showed significantly higher salinities and organic loadings (biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand) but lower dissolved nutrients (NO₃–N, NO₂–N, and PO₄–P), total iron, and phytoplankton diversity compared to the reference site. Irrigation of saline waters has exacerbated salinization, leading to significant biological changes in the surrounding waters. Impacts of shrimp pond discharges on the surrounding waters were not very dramatic in terms of organic loadings and nutrients. The increase in organic loadings in the surrounding waters was mostly due to contribution from other pollution sources, such as domestic/industrial discharges and runoff. Enhanced salinization and changes in nutrients resulted in a decline in species richness and diversity, and a change in the evenness of the phytoplankton community. Besides, the composition of zooplankton and zoobenthos were also restructured. The mild impacts of shrimp pond discharges on the surrounding waters were primarily due to the limited inputs for shrimp aquaculture in this area.     

Debris flows in the Swiss National Park: the influence of different flow models and varying DEM grid size on modeling results

In the Swiss National Park, debris flows are a frequent phenomenon and have repeatedly affected highways and hiking structures. In this study, we first investigated the main characteristics and dimensions of current debris flows by field work and empirical parameterization schemes. Additionally, we evaluated a topography-based flow-trajectory geographic information system model (MSF) and a flow-routing model (FLO-2D) in terms of debris flow-affected areas. Three generically different digital elevation models (DEM) with grid spacing of 25, 4, and 1 m were used in conjunction with the flow models. The evaluation of the DEM grid spacing shows that for both flow models the 25-m DEM can give an approximate estimation of the potential hazard zone. Four- and one-meter DEMs mostly confine the simulated debris flow to existing channels and are in accordance with observations of recent debris-flow events. The study shows that DEM quality and grid resolution are crucial for the resulting delineation of potentially affected areas and thus for hazard assessment and mapping.     

天水市“7.25”群发性山洪地质灾害发育特征及成因分析

通过对天水市"7.25"群发性山洪地质灾害的现场调查,系统查明了此次地质灾害的灾情、致灾因素、灾害特征、致灾范围以及分布规律,分析了此次山洪地质灾害发育特征及成因。结果表明:本次由强降雨引发并加剧的地质灾害类型主要以黄土-泥岩及黄土滑坡为主,中小型沟谷泥石流、土质崩塌和土质不稳定斜坡次之。"7.25"山洪地质灾害具有普遍性、群发性、局地爆发性等特征,其隐蔽性强,潜在危害大,灾害链模式显著。灾害发生期间降雨具有强度大、范围广等特点,使区内山体岩土体饱和,显著降低了岩土体抗剪强度,加之与地震的叠加效应明显加剧了此次群发性山洪地质灾害。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula

The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults.