Interdecadal variability over the North Pacific in a multi-century climate simulation

Interdecadal variability in the North Pacific region is investigated in a 500-y control integration of the Hamburg ECHAM+LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The spectrum is predominantly red, but a significant peak with a period of about 18 y is detected in the spectrum of sea surface temperature (SST). This peak is shown to be associated with an irregular oscillation that involves both the model ocean and atmosphere. The SST, sea-level pressure, and geopotential height at 500 hPa all undergo a primarily standing oscillation with an extensive monopole structure centered near the date line. The surface anticyclone is situated to the northeast of the warm SST anomaly, and there is a small westward tilt with height; temporal changes are approximately in phase. The anomalous surface heat flux accompanying the warm phase of SST is primarily out of the ocean, but is compensated by anomalous warm advection by surface currents, allowing the SST anomaly to persist. Oceanic thermocline anomalies propagate northward in the western Pacific, and lag the atmosphere indicating a disequilibrium with the atmosphere; sub-surface thermal advection appears to play an important role. A comparison is made between the model's 18-y oscillation and oscillatory components identified in an analysis of the GISST observational SST dataset, which have periods of approximately 6 and roughly 30 y.     

Response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to persistent North Atlantic oscillation like forcing

The response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) to a persistent positive (or negative) phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model forced with idealized atmospheric reanalysis fields. The integrations are analyzed with reference to a base-line integration for which the model is forced with idealized fields representing a neutral state of the NAO. In the positive NAO case, the results suggest that the well-known cooling and strengthening of the SPG are, after about 10 years, replaced by a warming and subsequent weakening of the SPG. The latter changes are caused by the advection of warm water from the subtropical gyre (STG) region, driven by a spin-up of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the effect of an anomalous wind stress curl in the northeastern North Atlantic, which counteracts the local buoyancy forcing of the SPG. In the negative NAO case, however, the SPG response does not involve a sign reversal, but rather shows a gradual weakening throughout the integration. The asymmetric SPG-response to the sign of persistent NAO-like forcing and the different time scales involved demonstrate strong non-linearity in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation response to atmospheric forcing. The latter finding indicates that analysis based on the arithmetic difference between the two NAO-states, e.g. NAO+ minus NAO?, may hide important aspects of the ocean response to atmospheric forcing.     

北大西洋地区气候准20年周期的观测和模拟分析

北大西洋地区除了存在约70 a周期的AMO（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,北大西洋年代际振荡）之外,历史长期气候记录中英格兰温度（Central England Temperature,CET）与格陵兰冰芯净雪累计率还存在显著的20 a周期波动。本研究利用CCSM4（Community Climate System Model version 4）耦合模式工业革命前控制试验（piControl）结果中的海表面温度（Sea Surface Temperature,SST）,通过10～50 a带通滤波与扩展经验正交函数（Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function,EEOF）分解,得到在北大西洋副极地海区存在准20 a振荡的逆时针旋转模态。此周期与其临近地区的CET、格陵兰冰芯净雪累计率的准20 a振荡周期相吻合,说明这种北大西洋副极地海区准20 a振荡的海洋模态与其临近地区的大气准20 a振荡之间可能存在相应的联系。进一步利用CAM4（the Community Atmosphere Model version4）大气模式,以北大西洋副极地海区准20 a振荡SST旋转模态为强迫场进行敏感性试验,进一步验证了这种联系。     

Interdecadal variability of the meridional Ekman heat and mass transport in the North Atlantic and its relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Average long-term and average annual values of meridional Ekman heat (mass) transport are estimated using the NCEP/NCAR (for 1948-2014) and 20CR (for 1871-2012) atmospheric reanalyses, and their interdecadal variability is analyzed. It was corroborated that the typical period of interdecadal variability of meridional Ekman transport in the North Atlantic coincides with that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and is about 60 years. The strengthening of northeastern trade winds and westerlies accompanied by the development of the negative phase of AMO occurred in the 1880s-1920s and in the 1960s-1990s. The opposite trend is observed for the 1930s-1950s and for the period from the 1990s till the beginning of the 21st century.     

Convection induced long term freshening of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean

This paper is mainly concerned with the understanding and attribution of the recent observed freshening trend in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. From previous coupled model studies and an analysis of the long HadCM3 control simulation, it seems unlikely that this freshening trend is a direct consequence of anthropogenically forced climate change. It is shown in this paper that the subpolar North Atlantic can be freshened to the observed degree without invoking substantial large-scale surface freshwater flux changes. The source of freshening can come from a freshwater redistribution within the Arctic/subpolar North Atlantic. The redistribution (involving both liquid water and sea ice) is carried by a perturbed ocean circulation change in the subpolar seas and triggered by deep convection in the Labrador Sea. The freshening can be widespread but mainly in the north and northwest of the subpolar North Atlantic. A sustained 30–40 years freshening trend can be easily identified in specific locations such as the Labrador Sea or in the basin wide integral of freshwater storage. At the peak, the model subpolar North Atlantic can hold around 10,000 km³ of extra freshwater. An analysis of 1,400 years HadCM3 control simulation also reveals a good correlation between freshwater content anomalies and gyre transport in the subpolar North Atlantic on decadal timescales. A general mechanism involving circulation regime changes and freshwater redistribution between the subpolar North Atlantic and the Arctic/Nordic Seas is proposed, which can resolve a number of seemingly contradictory observed changes in the North Atlantic and contributes to the longer term goal of a full understanding of recent North Atlantic fresh water changes.     

Interdecadal changes in the storm track activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic

Analysis of NCEP-NCAR I reanalysis data of 1948–2009 and ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis data of 1958–2001 reveals several significant interdecadal changes in the storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction in the extratropics of Northern Hemisphere. First, the most remarkable transition in the North Pacific storm track (PST) and the North Atlantic storm track (AST) activities during the boreal cold season (from November to March) occurred around early-to-mid 1970s with the characteristics of global intensification that has been noticed in previous studies. Second, the PST activity in midwinter underwent decadal change from a weak regime in the early 1980s to a strong regime in the late 1980s. Third, during recent decade, the PST intensity has been enhanced in early spring whereas the AST intensity has been weakened in midwinter. Finally, interdecadal change has been also noted in the relationship between the PST and AST activities and between the storm track activity and climate indices. The variability of storm track activity is well correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation prior to the early 1980s, but this relationship has disappeared afterward and a significant linkage between the PST and AST activity has also been decoupled. For a better understanding of the mid-1970s’ shift in storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction, further investigation is made by analyzing local barotropic and baroclinic energetics. The intensification of global storm track activity after the mid-1970s is mainly associated with the enhancement of mean meridional temperature gradient resulting in favorable condition for baroclinic eddy growth. Consistent with the change in storm track activity, the baroclinic energy conversion is significantly increased in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The intensification of the PST and AST activity, in turn, helps to reinforce the changes in the middle-to-upper tropospheric circulation but acts to interfere with the changes in the low-tropospheric temperature field.     

Assessing the role of North Atlantic freshwater forcing in millennial scale climate variability: a tropical Atlantic perspective

This study analyzes a three-member ensemble of experiments, in which 0.1 Sv of freshwater was applied to the North Atlantic for 100 years in order to address the potential for large freshwater inputs in the North Atlantic to drive abrupt climate change. The model used is the GFDL R30 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. We focus in particular on the effects of this forcing on the tropical Atlantic region, which has been studied extensively by paleoclimatologists. In response to the freshwater forcing, North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced to roughly 40% by the end of the 100 year freshwater pulse. Consequently, the North Atlantic region cools by up to 8°C. The extreme cooling of the North Atlantic increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient and requires more heat be provided to the high latitude Atlantic from the tropical Atlantic. To accommodate the increased heat requirement, the ITCZ shifts southward to allow for greater heat transport across the equator. Accompanying this southward ITCZ shift, the Northeast trade winds strengthen and precipitation patterns throughout the tropical Atlantic are altered. Specifically, precipitation in Northeast Brazil increases, and precipitation in Africa decreases slightly. In addition, we find that surface air temperatures warm over the tropical Atlantic and over Africa, but cool over northern South America. Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic warm slightly with larger warm anomalies developing in the thermocline. These responses are robust for each member of the ensemble, and have now been identified by a number of freshwater forcing studies using coupled OAGCMs. The model responses to freshwater forcing are generally smaller in magnitude, but have the same direction, as paleoclimate data from the Younger Dryas suggest. In certain cases, however, the model responses and the paleoclimate data directly contradict one another. Discrepancies between the model simulations and the paleoclimate data could be due to a number of factors, including inaccuracies in the freshwater forcing, inappropriate boundary conditions, and uncertainties in the interpretation of the paleoclimate data. Despite these discrepancies, it is clear from our results that abrupt climate changes in the high latitude North Atlantic have the potential to significantly impact tropical climate. This warrants further model experimentation into the role of freshwater forcing in driving climate change.     

Dynamics of decadal variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre: a stochastically forced oscillator

Internal variability of the Atlantic subpolar gyre is investigated in a 600 years control simulation of a comprehensive coupled climate model. The subpolar gyre shows irregular oscillations of decadal time scale with most spectral power between 15 and 20 years. Positive and negative feedback mechanisms act successively on the circulation leading to an internal oscillation. This involves periodically enhanced deep convection in the subpolar gyre center and intermittently enhanced air-sea thermal coupling. As a result, anomalies of the large-scale atmospheric circulation can be transferred to the ocean on the ocean’s intrinsic time scale, exciting the oscillator stochastically. A detailed understanding of oscillatory mechanisms of the ocean and their sensitivity to atmospheric forcing holds considerable potential for decadal predictions as well as for the interpretation of proxy data records.     

Impact of freshwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet on North Atlantic climate variability

Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, we investigated the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on North Atlantic climate variability. The positive-degree day (PDD) method was incorporated into the model to control continental ice melting (PDD run). Models with and without the PDD method produce a realistic pattern of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability that fluctuates from decadal to multidecadal periods. However, the interdecadal variability in PDD run is significantly dominated in the longer time scale compared to that in the run without PDD method. The main oscillatory feature in these experiments likely resembles the density-driven oscillatory mode. A reduction in the ocean density over the subpolar Atlantic results in suppression of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), leading to a cold SST due to a weakening of northward heat transport. The decreased surface evaporation associated with the cold SST further reduces the ocean density and thus, simultaneously acts as a positive feedback mechanism. The southward meridional current associated with the suppressed AMOC causes a positive tendency in the ocean density through density advection, which accounts for the phase transition of this oscillatory mode. The Greenland ice melting process reduces the mean meridional current and meridional density gradient because of additional fresh water flux, which suppress the delayed negative feedback due to meridional density advection. As a result, the oscillation period becomes longer and the transition is more delayed.     

北大西洋涛动指数的比较及其年代际变率

首先对各种北大西洋涛动（NAO）指数的定义进行了比较。发现冬季和夏季NAO的涛动中心有显著的差异,所以分别进行定义,定义时的中心由EOF分析及相关分析确定,新的定义能解释更多的海平面气压方差。在此基础上建立了1873年以来的冬、夏NAO指数序列。近百年来的NAO指数最突出的年代际变化是,夏季在1910～1920年期间的突变性质的增强,以及冬季近20多年来的持续加强。最后还对NAO年代际变化产生的可能原因进行了分析。     

Temporal structures of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its impact on the regional climate variability

In this study, the temporal structure of the variation of North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） and its impact on regional climate variability are analyzed using various datasets. The results show that blocking formations in the Atlantic region are sensitive to the phase of the NAO. Sixty-seven percent more winter blocking days are observed during the negative phase compared to the positive phase of the NAO. The average length of blocking during the negative phase is about 11 days, which is nearly twice as long as the 6-day length observed during the positive phase of the NAO. The NAO-related differences in blocking frequency and persistence are associated with changes in the distribution of the surface air temperature anomaly, which, to a large extent, is determined by the phase of the NAO. The distribution of regional cloud amount is also sensitive to the phase of the NAO. For the negative phase, the cloud amounts are significant, positive anomalies in the convective zone in the Tropics and much less cloudiness in the mid latitudes. But for the positive phase of the NAO, the cloud amount is much higher in the mid-latitude storm track region. In the whole Atlantic region, the cloud amount shows a decrease with the increase of surface air temperature. These results suggest that there may be a negative feedback between the cloud amount and the surface air t.emperature in the Atlantic region.     

Interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime North Pacific

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the extratropical North Pacific during boreal winter, which has an important impact on North American winter climate. This study analyses the interdecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the wintertime extratropical North Pacific, over the period 1900–2010, using a range of observationally derived datasets and an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations. The observed teleconnection strength is found to vary substantially over the 20th century. Specifically, 31-year periods in the early-century (1912–1942), mid-century (1946–1976) and the late-century (1980–2010) are identified in the observations when the ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific circulation are found to be particularly strong, weak and strong respectively. The ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific in the atmospheric model ensemble is weak in the mid-century period and substantially stronger in the late-century, closely following the variability in the observed ENSO-North Pacific teleconnection. In the early-century, however, the atmospheric model also exhibits a weak teleconnection to the North Pacific, unlike in observations. In a subset of the model realisations that exhibit similar ENSO-North Pacific teleconnection as in observations during the early-century period there are large differences in extratropical circulation but not in equatorial Pacific precipitation anomalies, in contrast to the late-century period. This suggests that the high correlation in the early century period is largely due to internal extratropical variability. The important implications of these results for seasonal predictability and the assessment of seasonal forecasting systems are discussed.

     

Formalization of the teleconnection of the North Atlantic oscillation and temperature regime in the Atlantic-Eurasian subpolar zone

Statistical analysis is performed of long-term changes in surface air temperature in the western part of the subpolar zone, in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, and in atmospheric pressure oscillations in the North Atlantic atmospheric centers of action. Stability of the statistics for the next decades is considered with allowance for a possible increase in the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere of the north polar zone. A statistical formalization is carried out, and a possible mechanism is described of teleconnection between low-frequency oscillations of the pressure field in the North Atlantic and climatic parameters in the northwestern part of the Atlantic-Eurasian region.     

Interdecadal variability of regional climate change: implications for the development of regional climate change scenarios

Summary Illustrative examples are discussed of the interdecadal variability features of the regional climate change signal in 5 AOGCM transient simulations. It is shown that the regional precipitation change signal is characterized by large variability at decadal to multidecadal scales, with the structure of the variability varying markedly across regions. Conversely, the regional temperature change signal shows low interdecadal variability. Results are compared across scenarios, models and different realizations with the same model. Our analysis indicates that, at the decadal scale, linear scaling of the regional climate change signal by the global temperature change works relatively well for temperature but less so for precipitation. The nonlinear fraction of the climate change signal tends to decrease with the magnitude of the signal. The implications of interdecadal variability for the generation of regional climate change scenarios are discussed, in particular concerning the use of multi-experiment ensembles to produce such scenarios.     

Spatiotemporal variability of meridional mass transport in the North Atlantic

Analyzed is the interannual variability of the meridional mass transport ψ_S in the North Atlantic based on the Sverdrup relation. The continuous (1980–2005) monthly wind stress dataset with the spatial resolution of 1 × 1° was used as the initial data. Sverdrup transport analysis performed for different latitudinal transects within the North Atlantic subtropical gyre demonstrated that the maximum long-term Sverdrup transport (?25.2 Sv) can be found at 33°N. Studied is a mechanism of the interaction between the meridional Sverdrup transport and the water flow in the Florida Strait. The significant correlation coefficient (0.5) is revealed for the Florida Strait water discharge and the mass transport at 27°N. Analyzed is the relationship between ψ_S and the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the statistically significant correlation coefficient (0.45) is obtained for the Sverdrup transport at 49°N.     

Role of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in modulating East Asian climate

We assess the effects of the North Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (NASST) on North East Asian (NEA) surface temperature. We use a set of sensitivity experiments, performed with MetUM-GOML2, an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a multi-level ocean mixed layer model, to mimic warming and cooling over the North Atlantic Ocean. Results show that a warming of the NASST is associated with a significant warming over NEA. Two mechanisms are pointed out to explain the NASST—North East Asia surface temperature relationship. First, the warming of the NASST is associated with a modulation of the northern hemisphere circulation, due to the propagation of a Rossby wave (i.e. the circumglobal teleconnection). The change in the atmosphere circulation is associated with advections of heat from the Pacific Ocean to NEA and with an increase in net surface shortwave radiation over NEA, both acting to increase NEA surface temperature. Second, the warming of the NASST is associated with a cooling (warming) over the eastern (western) Pacific Ocean, which modulates the circulation over the western Pacific Ocean and NEA. Additional simulations, in which Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are kept constant, show that the modulation of the circumglobal teleconnection is key to explaining impacts of the NASST on NEA surface temperature.

     

The North Atlantic Oscillation and oceanic precipitation variability

Global North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) oceanic precipitation features in the latter half of the twentieth century are documented based on the intercomparison of multiple state-of-the-art precipitation datasets and the analysis of the NAO atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies. Most prominent precipitation anomalies occur over the ocean in the North Atlantic, where in winter a “quadrupole-like” pattern is found with centers in the western tropical Atlantic, sub-tropical Atlantic, high-latitude eastern Atlantic and over the Labrador Sea. The extent of the sub-tropical and high-latitude center and the amount of explained variance (over 50%) are quite remarkable. However, the tropical Atlantic center is probably the most intriguing feature of this pattern apparently linking the NAO with ITCZ variability. In summer, the pattern is “tripole-like” with centers in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, the North Sea/Baltic Sea and in the sub-polar Atlantic. In the eastern Indian Ocean, the correlation is positive in winter and negative in summer, with some link to ENSO variability. The sensitivity of these patterns to the choice of the NAO index is minor in winter while quite important in summer. Interannual NAO precipitation anomalies have driven similar fresh water variations in these “key” regions. In the sub-tropical and high-latitude Atlantic in winter precipitation anomalies have been roughly 15 and 10% of climatology per unit change of the NAO, respectively. Decadal changes of the NAO during the last 50 years have also influenced precipitation and fresh water flux at these time-scales, with values lower (higher) than usual in the high-latitude eastern North Atlantic (Labrador Sea) in the 1960s and the late 1970s, and an opposite situation since the early 1980s; in summer the North Sea/Baltic region has been drier than usual during the period 1965–1975 when the NAO was generally positive.     

Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a model study

Observations show a multidecadal signal in the North Atlantic ocean, but the underlying mechanism and cause of its timescale remain unknown. Previous studies have suggested that it may be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the dominant pattern of winter atmospheric variability. To further address this issue, the global ocean general circulation model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), is driven using a 2,000 years long white noise forcing associated with the NAO. Focusing on key ocean circulation patterns, we show that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Sub-polar gyre (SPG) strength both have enhanced power at low frequencies but no dominant timescale, and thus provide no evidence for a oscillatory ocean-only mode of variability. Instead, both indices respond linearly to the NAO forcing, but with different response times. The variability of the AMOC at 30°N is strongly enhanced on timescales longer than 90 years, while that of the SPG strength starts increasing at 15 years. The different response characteristics are confirmed by constructing simple statistical models that show AMOC and SPG variability can be related to the NAO variability of the previous 53 and 10 winters, respectively. Alternatively, the AMOC and the SPG strength can be reconstructed with Auto-regressive (AR) models of order seven and five, respectively. Both statistical models reconstruct interannual and multidecadal AMOC variability well, while on the other hand, the AR(5) reconstruction of the SPG strength only captures multidecadal variability. Using these methods to reconstruct ocean variables can be useful for prediction and model intercomparision.