Long-range Automaton Models of Earthquakes: Power-law Accelerations,Correlation Evolution,and Mode-switching

—?We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r ^?p dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.     

板内盆地地震构造分析──以江苏南部为例

板内地震构造的主要控制因素是区域构造应力场和局部的特殊发震构造条件。本文提出江苏南部强地震的主要构造标志是新生代活动盆地，盆地内的隐伏发震断层与区域构造应力场的最大主应力之间的夹角正好有利于剪切破裂的发生。三维有限元数值模拟证明，盆地形成过程中产生的地壳脆弱化，导致构造应力的重新分布和局部集中，盆地内部脆弱体中的隐伏断层是潜在的震源破裂面，盆地边缘积累的弹性应变能则是地震时释放的能量来源。     

溧阳、邢台、菏泽、南黄海地震的相互关系

1977——1984年,华北南部连续发生了溧阳、邢台、菏泽、南黄海四次六级左右地震。分析表明: 1)这些地震均位于华北块体南边界构造网络的节点上; 2)唐山大震的发生引起块体南边界断裂带的活动加剧,并伴随应力重新分布,导致上述地段应力加强和周围广大区域应力下降,形成了有利于这些地震孕育的应力场背景; 3)当网络上某一个薄弱点发生破裂后,会引起应力再分布,从而影响着下一次地震的发生,这种快速的应力调整过程,对于中强地震的能量积累和它们的成组发生起了重要作用。研究地震现象在时空上的相互作用过程,对于地震的中短期预报具有重要意义。      

洪洞临汾大震震源断层的相互作用和地震趋势分析

山西临汾地区1303年和1695年发生了洪洞(M8)和临汾(M7 3/4)两次相距最近特大地震。地震所在区域至今仍有持续不断的小震活动。我们根据1670次中、小地震精确震源定位结果和149个小地震的震源机制。通过震源三维空间分布和震源机制解的分析,认为洪洞地震和临汾地震的强相互作用是解锁,因此导致临汾地震提前发生;此外,2者之间还存在弱相互作用,并且和随机发生的地震达到一种平衡。2次大地震对区域所积累的应变基本释放完毕,难以再形成与应力场一致的大破裂,使得临汾地区连续的地震活动以中小地震的形式体现,连续300多年都没有5级以上地震发生。估计今后临汾地区的这种低水平活动将继续下去,发展趋势是安全的。     

大同窗视应力时变特征浅析

利用山自皂、恒山和阳原地震台记录,计算大同窗2001年至2015年6月小震波形视应力,并消除震级影响,获得大同窗小震差视应力随时间的变化结果。结果显示,在山西带和张渤带10次M_L 5左右地震前,差视应力震前5—517天出现明显的高值异常,震后恢复到背景应力水平。结合山自皂台(SZZ)记录的介质品质因子Q_m数值,差视应力和介质品质因子Q_m在10次M_L 5左右地震前呈现超出1倍均方差的准同步高值变化,可见区域应力和介质变化对中强地震孕育有一定反映。     

利用CDSN资料研究中强地震的差异：—CDSN应用系列论文三

本文利用中国数字地震台网(CDSN)短周期垂直向的直达 P 波数字资料,通过频谱分析的方法,测定了3个5级左右的中强地震及其随后小地震的应力降和介质 Q 值。初步研究了不同类型的中强地震在这方面的差异。并指出,中强地震的应力降低,与随后发生的小地震的平均应力降比值也小时,有可能在震中附近还会发生更大的地震。相反,中强地震的应力降高,与小地震的平均应力降的比值大时,随后发生更大地震的可能性就小。同时还指出,中强地震发生前,往往介质 Q 值部较低。这在中强地震发生后,对及时估计地震趋势有一定的实用价值.     

Models of source spectra for tectonic earthquakes in application to some types of volcanic earthquakes: Klyuchevskoi volcano

This study makes use of spectral models for tectonic earthquakes in application to volcano-tectonic (VT) and deep-focus long period volcanic (DL) earthquakes. For these earthquakes we adjusted the parameters of source spectra, and simultaneously, the medium where seismic waves propagate. We derived preliminary results to characterize the models of source spectra for volcanic earthquakes that occur on Klyuchevskoi Volcano. This method can also be used to estimate the attenuation parameters of seismic waves, which are important for the assessment of stress and strain in a volcanic medium.     

巧家、石棉的小震震源参数的测定及其地震危险性的估计

根据巧家、石棉的小地震的观测资料,指出P波初动半周期在震级比较小时几乎是恒定的,在震级比较大时随震级的增大而增大;并指出P波初动振幅的对数也随震级的增大而增大。以圆盘形均匀位错面作为中、小地震震源的理论模式,计算了它所辐射的地震波远场位移,从而导出了体波初动半周期及振幅与震源尺度及波速等物理量的定量关系,解释了P波初动半周期及振幅与震级之间的经验关系。考虑到波在介质中的衰减和频散、地表面的影响以及地震仪器的频率特性,通过褶积方法合成了上述位错源产生的理论地震图,提出了直接由实际地震图上的初动半周期及振幅测定震源尺度、地震矩、应力降和错距等震源参数以及介质的晶质因数Q的方法.运用上述方法,测定了巧家、石棉两地区介质的品质因数Q和小震的震源参数.这两个地区介质的品质因数Q分别为620和560.石棉地区小地震的应力降大约在2-30巴之间,巧家地区小地震的应力降比较接近,平均约1.4巴.将这个结果和1962年3月19日新丰江地震与1975年2月4日海城地震的前、主震的应力降作对比,我们看到,巧家地区小震的应力降的特征与上述两次大地震的前震的应力降的特征是类似的,因此不能排斥巧家地区的小震是一个较大地震的前震的可能性.以测得的小震应力降的平均值（约1.4巴）作为这个可能发生的较大地震应力降的下限估计值,从主震震级和主震应力降的经验关系可以推知,其震级的下限是5.2级.     

地震前地表重力场变化的一种可能解释——应力-损伤耦合效应

文中运用损伤力学研究方法 ,提出孕震过程中引起地壳破坏的应力 -损伤耦合效应。利用应变等效性假设 ,推导了地壳体的应力 -损伤耦合效应与地表重力变化之间的理论关系。根据岩石力学实验的不同加载途径 ,模拟了 1976年唐山 7 8级地震和 2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西 8 1级地震重力演化的不同特征 ,结果与实际情况符合较好 ,表明应力 -损伤耦合效应可以作为地震前地壳重力变化的一种物理解释     

云南及邻区环境剪应力场时间分布与强震活动

对云南及邻区环境剪应力场时间变化作了分析研究,表明因高剪应力值地震在时间上的集中分布,而形成了环境剪应力场显著增强的时段。高剪应力值地震的发生是构造应力场增强的直接表征,环境剪应力场高值分布区和高剪应力值地震集中发生时段的出现,与强震活动的时空分布密切相关。追踪分析环境剪应力场的时间变化,是地震危险性中、短期预测的行之有效的一种方法。环境剪应力场不同时间段的变化,可能为地震的中期和短期预测提供相应的应力场前兆性变化判据。     

Source Parameters and Scaling Relations for Reservoir Induced Seismicity in the Longtan Reservoir Area

We investigate the relationship between the impoundment and seismicity in the Longtan reservoir, southwestern China and find evidence that the seismicity was reservoir induced. After the reservoir impoundment, a pronounced increase in seismicity was observed in five clusters mainly concentrated in the areas where few earthquakes had occurred before the first filling. The observed induced seismicity shows a strong correlation with the filling cycles. The activity levels in the five clusters are different due to differences in the structures and permeabilities of the faults. Source parameters for 1,616 earthquakes with M _L 0.1–4.2 recorded by 24 fixed and temporary stations deployed around the reservoir were calculated after applying corrections for geometrical spreading, frequency-dependent Q, and site effects. The static stress drop and apparent stress in this area both appear to increase with increasing seismic moment over the entire magnitude range. Our results show that reservoir induced earthquakes have ten times lower average stress drop than natural tectonic earthquakes. These results may indicate that the reservoir induced seismicity can occur with a lower tectonic stress due to the high pore pressures of the underground medium, and that the effect of the water decreases the coefficient of friction.     

A numerical method of viscoelastic finite element coupled with spring-block model to simulate the interaction of faults and crustal blocks

A numerical method of viscoelastic finite element coupled with spring-block model is developed to study temporal processes from the slow tectonic motion of large-scale crust to the rapid failure of small-scale faults. Our modeling demonstrates that the motion of crustal blocks is driven by forces from tectonic plate boundaries, and the deformation is distributed on faults for the stress accumulating. The coupling model generates earthquake sequences that display a magnitude-frequency scaling consistent with Gutenberg-Richter law. The frictional heterogeneities affeci earthquakes occurrence and stresses distribution of crustal blocks. Rupture of earthquakes starts at the nucleation node, and propagates bilaterally along faults with the stress triggering, release and redistribution. The failure of faults releases part of crustal stresses, the stress state of crustal blocks near fault is affected by the rupture of local segments on the fault, and the stress state of crustal blocks far away from the fault is controlled by the seismic activity of the whole fault.     

A numerical method of viscoelastic finite element coupled with spring-block model to simulate the interaction of faults and crustal blocks

A numerical method of viscoelastic finite element coupled with spring-block model is developed to study temporal processes from the slow tectonic motion of large-scale crust to the rapid failure of small-scale faults. Our modeling demonstrates that the motion of crustal blocks is driven by forces from tectonic plate boundaries, and the deformation is distributed on faults for the stress accumulating. The coupling model generates earthquake sequences that display a magnitude-frequency scaling consistent with Gutenberg-Richter law. The frictional heterogeneities affect earthquakes occurrence and stresses distribution of crustal blocks. Rupture of earthquakes starts at the nucleation node, and propagates bilaterally along faults with the stress triggering, release and redistribution. The failure of faults releases part of crustal stresses, the stress state of crustal blocks near fault is affected by the rupture of local segments on the fault, and the stress state of crustal blocks far away from the fault is controlled by the seismic activity of the whole fault.     

非线性科学在地震研究中的一些应用

非线性科学应用极其广泛，近年来不少国内外学者将非线性科学应用于地震研究中，对地震现象的非线性问题和复杂性进行了探讨，取得了不少成果。本文对非线性科学在地震的可预测性、地震模型以及地震预报方法的研究方面进行了评述。关于地震的可预测性，有两种观点：一是认为地震是混沌，因而是不可长期确定性预测的；另一种观点认为地震是弱混沌，因而可能是可长期确定性预报的。加卸载响应比地震预报方法抓住了地震的本质，是一种很有希望的方法。     

Earthquake Probability of the “Seismic Gap” on the Longmenshan Fault

Using the layered viscoelastic medium model, this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake. Then combined with the rate-state friction law proposed by Dieterich J. (1994), we obtain the probability of an M_W ≥ 6.0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan. The results show that the probability of M_W ≥ 6.0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to 18%, indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake. This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the "seismic gap" generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan, and combined with the background seismicity, gives the M_W>6.0 earthquake probability of the "seismic gap". Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake, selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity, the seismic probability of the "seismic gap" is increasing. Thus, we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the "seismic gap".     

晋冀鲁豫相邻地区中小地震震源机制特征分析

采用从震源向上射出的直达P波和直达S波引起的地动位移振幅比,结合P波初动方向来求解震源机制的方法,得到晋冀鲁豫相邻地区102个地震的震源机制解。并进行系统聚类分析,发现中小地震显示散乱,表明强震是大范围应力积累释放的表现形式;小地震具有随机性,受局部因素影响较大,对华北构造应力场的控制作用较弱。     

地震波振幅异常的某些物理解释

本文把较大地震前观测到的地震波振幅异常变化与模拟实验的结果及理论分析加以对比,借助于地壳介质的变化对振幅比前兆异常特征提出了某些物理解释。较大地震前观测到的地震波振幅比时间变化呈“低值——上升到稳定高值——发震——回到正常值”的形态;主震危险区位于异常区内,多数在比值梯度大的地方,临震时比值骤增,各台比值峰值出现时间由震中距,方位角不同而有序。岩石压力实验中压力达岩石破坏强度50—60%以后,P波振幅随压力增加而下降,幅度较大;A_S/A_P随加压而下降,达破坏强度90%以后,迅速回升;若加载达破坏强度之95%时充水稳压,P波振幅在各方向均减小。在理论上把孕震过程中介质的变化分别用单相和多相介质模拟,多相介质中考虑以气和水为孔隙流体,给出本构关系,求出速度和垂直向位移。理论工作表明:A_S/A_P在孔隙介质为气时比为水时小;P波振幅变化大;孔隙度大,振幅比变小。介质中应力集中程度达岩石破坏强度60%前后,可分别用单相和多相来描述介质。两相中,微裂隙张开,以气体为主,A_S/A_P变小,呈负异常,达90%时,A_S/A_P上升,围压大于孔隙压,孔隙流体以水为主,且水进速率大于孔隙度增大速率;临震时予滑,应力部分解除,孔隙部分闭合,孔隙饱和,振幅比出现峰值,至于空间分布则要考虑应力积累与调整部位介质强度不同,可能造成孔隙度及饱和度不同所致。由于本文的物理解释中综合了实际观测,模拟实验和理论分析的结果,又把应力状态与介质变化联系起来,故此种解释可能具有成因观点。     

区域应力作用引起的北天山地区地下流体异常特征分析

大量观测事实表明 ,赋存于地壳深部的流体 (水、气、油 )作为弹性介质 ,对深层地壳应力的分布、变化、转移过程及地震孕育、发生等有着较为灵敏的反映。地震的形成与区域构造应力活动强度密切相关 ,这种大范围的区域应力作用会形成多个应力集中点 ,在众多应力集中点上可产生地下流体前兆异常变化。在对新疆地下流体数十年的监测中 ,发现强震前出现大量与地震有关的由区域构造应力活动引起的前兆异常 ,异常范围广且种类繁多 ,它们在成因、特征上与震源应力活动的前兆异常明显不同 ;这种地下水位地震前兆异常场 ,不能完全孤立地与单个地震事件相对应 ,应充分考虑到它与一组或系列地震有关 ,而这些地震往往与块体挤压、断裂活动等区域性的应力活动有关。因此 ,正确区分并掌握其不同的特性 ,对地震预报具有一定的意义     

倾斜断层错动产生的应力场

本文导出拉梅常数不相等情形的半无限弹性介质中任意倾角的矩形断层错动产生的应力场的解析表达式.给出走向滑动和倾向滑动的倾斜断层的应力场在地表面的等值线图.讨论了介质的泊松比、断层面的倾角、上界和下界对地面的应力场的影响.作为一种应用,计算了通海地震、海城地震和唐山地震断层近场的剪应力和流体静应力的等值线图,并同这三个地震的强余震的空间分布作比较,发现大多数强余震分布在流体静应力为正值的引张区内.      

Visco-elastic stress triggering model of Tangshan earthquake sequence

We calculated the Coulomb failure stress change generated by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake that is projected onto the fault planes and slip directions of large subsequent aftershocks.Results of previous studies on the seismic fail-ure distribution,crustal velocity and viscosity structures of the Tangshan earthquake are used as model constraints.Effects of the local pore fluid pressure and impact of soft medium near the fault are also considered.Our result shows that the subsequent Luanxian and Ninghe earthquakes occurred in the regions with a positive Coulomb fail-ure stress produced by the Tangshan earthquake.To study the triggering effect of the Tangshan,Luanxian,and Ninghe earthquakes on the follow-up small earthquakes,we first evaluate the possible focal mechanisms of small earthquakes according to the regional stress field and co-seismic slip distributions derived from previous studies,assuming the amplitude of regional tectonic stress as 10 MPa.By projecting the stress changes generated by the above three earthquakes onto the possible fault planes and slip directions of small earthquakes,we find that the "butterfly" distribution pattern of increased Coulomb failure stress is consistent with the spatial distribution of follow-up earthquakes,and 95% of the aftershocks occurred in regions where Coulomb failure stresses increase,indicating that the former large earthquakes modulated occurrences of follow-up earthquakes in the Tangshan earthquake sequence.This result has some significance in rapid assessment of aftershock hazard after a large earthquake.If detailed failure distribution,seismogenic fault in the focal area and their slip features can be rapidly determined after a large earthquake,our algorithm can be used to predict the locations of large aftershocks.