Assessment of transboundary river basins for potential hydro-political tensions

This paper presents a systematic, global assessment of transboundary watersheds that identifies regions more likely to experience hydro-political tensions over the next decade and beyond based upon environmental, political, and economic indicators. The development of new water infrastructure in transboundary basins can strain relationships among fellow riparians as the impacts of new dams and diversions are felt across borders. Formal arrangements governing transboundary river basins, such as international water treaties and river basin organizations, provide a framework for dialogue and negotiation, thus contributing to assuaging potential disputes. Our study examines these two issues in tandem − the stresses inherent in development and the mitigating impact of institutions − and maps the risk of potential hydro-political tensions that exist where basins may be ill-equipped to deal with transboundary disputes triggered by the construction of new dams and diversions. We also consider several factors that could exacerbate those hydropolitical tensions in the near future, including changes in terrestrial water storage, projected changes in water variability, per capita gross national income, domestic and international armed conflicts, and recent history of disputes over transboundary waters. The study points to the vulnerability of several basins in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central America, the northern part of the South American continent, the southern Balkans as well as in different parts of Africa, where new water infrastructure is being built or planned, but formal transboundary arrangements are absent. Moreover, in some of these regions there is a concomitance of several political, environmental and socioeconomic factors that could exacerbate hydropolitical tensions. This study contributes to the understanding of how the recent proliferation of development accompanied with unfavourable socio-economic and environmental indicators may influence global hydropolitical resilience.     

Forging alliance with Russia: the example of a Green Investment Scheme

Russian Kyoto related interests are economic and after the US withdrawal the mission of Russian actors has been to find new demand for Russian credits and allowances. Kyoto related benefits to Russia will be significantly smaller than earlier expected, however, the revenues are now more likely to be focused on climate change mitigation purposes. Competition in the Kyoto market has established buyers’ market and Russia has to accommodate the interests of investors in order to gain benefits. The Russian initiative ‘Green Investment Scheme’ to recycle revenues from International Emissions Trading (IET) to further environmental activities would convene demand for Russian AAUs but experience the same problems than the previous initiatives: inadequate institutional arrangement, unclear division of responsibilities between domestic actors, prolonged ratification process and lack of eligibility strategy. These problems have prevented implementation of GIS so far. Therefore, these problems have to be addressed by high-level Russian policy-makers if serious benefits from Kyoto are sought. Actors building alliances with Russia should focus on assisting with solving these problems.     

Citizens, consumers and sustainability: (Re)Framing environmental practice in an age of climate change

Recent moves by national and local policy makers have sought to encourage individuals to engage in a wide range of pro-environmental practices to address both discrete environmental problems and major, global challenges such as climate change. The major framing device for these developments is the notion of ‘citizen–consumers’, which positions individual ecological responsibilities alongside consumer choice logics in a Neo-liberal socio-economic framework. In the environmental social sciences, there have been recent moves to interpret the citizen–consumer through adopting a social practices approach, which advances the notion that in understanding environmental commitments, a deeper appreciation of underlying norms, values, identity politics and consumption is required to uncover the complex processes that lead to environmental practices in specific contexts. This paper argues that whilst these approaches have considerable utility in tracing the normalisation of established and discrete environmental practices in particular contexts, the issue of climate change represents an independent and over-arching discursive conflict between new and embedded practices that challenges the ability of citizen–consumers to act as agents for change. Accordingly, the data presented in this paper suggest that climate change can be seen as an unsettling and dynamic issue that generates discursive conflict in its own right around fundamental issues of knowledge, responsibility, scale and place. The paper therefore argues that a new and more critical perspective is required within environmental social science to understand (conflicting) discourses of sustainable living between the ‘passive’ normalisation of conventional environmental practice and the ‘contested’ ambiguities of climate change.     

Evaluating the Global Environment Facility: A goodwill gesture or a serious attempt to deliver global benefits?

Over its 17 years, the UN's Global Environment Facility (GEF) has allocated US $7.5 billion intended to develop and implement scientifically and socially credible solutions to key global environmental problems such as climate change, biological diversity loss and degradation of transboundary aquatic systems. We studied 906 GEF projects to analyse the challenges that it is facing in delivering solutions that are likely to be sustainable in the long-term. The research included desk reviews of relevant documents and follow-up interviews with a wide range of stakeholders. Some of the challenges the GEF faces are deeply rooted in temporal and spatial mismatches of scale between human economies and their environmental consequences and the strongly sectoral way current society is managed. We conclude that the GEF obtained impressive results for tackling problems of limited complexity and easily quantified benefits but progress is slower on more complex and less tangible problems impeding sustainable development. Potentially, the GEF could enable adaptive management through a ‘learning by doing’ process, transforming it into an innovative mechanism for delivering global benefits. Continued emphasis on ‘easy wins’ would not allow it to achieve this goal.     

Synergies in addressing air quality and climate change

Air quality is a serious concern for the protection of human health and our natural environment. The pollutants contributing the most to both local and transboundary air pollution problems are SO₂, NO_x, NH₃, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and fine particulate matter (PM), and mostly originate from the same sources as greenhouse gases. There are thus strong interactions between strategies designed to improve air quality and those addressing climate change. This article examines these interactions, and the benefits of combined strategies with greater attention to the overall environmental impacts, and finding the ‘win—win’ solutions. Illustrations are provided from the development of policy in Europe under the UN ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, which is now inextricably linked with strategies to control greenhouse gases.     

Assessment of institutional capacity to adapt to climate change in transboundary river basins

Responses to climate change in transboundary river basins are believed to depend on national and sub-national capacities as well as the ability of co-riparian nations to communicate, coordinate, and cooperate across their international boundaries. We develop the first framework for assessing transboundary adaptive capacity. The framework considers six dimensions of transboundary river basins that influence planning and implementation of adaptation measures and represents those dimensions using twelve measurable indicators. These indicators are used to assess transboundary adaptive capacity of 42 basins in the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Sahel. We then conduct a cluster analysis of those basins to delineate a typology that includes six categories of basins: High Capacity, Mediated Cooperation, Good Neighbour, Dependent Instability, Self-Sufficient, and Low Capacity. We find large variation in adaptive capacity across the study area; basins in Western Europe generally have higher capacities to address the potential hazards of climate change. Our basin typology points to how climate change adaptation policy interventions would be best targeted across the different categories of basins.     

Food system sustainability: Questions of environmental governance in the new world (dis)order

In a time of climate emergency, the question of environmental governance is not only critical, but also epistemic. How ‘environment’ is represented is as critical as how environmental crisis is managed. This essay addresses a debate of this kind by considering the complementary and contradictory relations between the concepts of ‘multi-functionality’ and ‘food sovereignty,’ as they define the global landscape. The juxtaposition of these concepts and their practical implications for political economy and ecology has its formative origins in a European-led debate over the role of agriculture, as a critical dimension of environmental governance. In this chapter I examine this debate as posing questions with broader, global significance.     

Times for (Un)sustainability? Challenges and opportunities for developing behaviour change policy. A case-study of consumers at home and away

This paper examines the assertion that individuals with seemingly high levels of commitment to the environment at home may also be those engaged in less sustainable leisure and tourism behaviours, including a high dependency on air travel. This potential difference in environmental commitments between different consumption settings is placed within the context of recent policy developments that have seen the rise of segmentation as a commonly applied technique used to understand and encourage pro-environmental behaviours through the notion of ‘sustainable lifestyles’ and social marketing campaigns. Using data derived from a questionnaire of consumers in the UK, three distinctive, empirically-defined ‘lifestyle’ groups are identified, based on the respondents’ environmental behaviours. Significant differences emerged in reported environmental commitments according to their consumption setting. Those with higher levels of commitment in and around the home also tended to be those who flew furthest and most frequently, whilst those with moderate-to-high commitments ‘at home’ often failed to transfer these activities to their holiday environments. The paper concludes by arguing that both academics and policy-makers need to address the role of different consumption settings in which behaviours are undertaken and the ways in which these relate to underlying social practices within these settings.     

Public concerns about transboundary haze: A comparison of Indonesia,Singapore, and Malaysia

Public concerns about environmental problems create narrative structures that influence policy by allocating roles of blame, responsibility, and appropriate behavior. This paper presents an analysis of public concerns about transboundary haze resulting from forest fires in Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia for crises experienced in 1997, 2005 and 2013. The source of the information is content analysis of 2231 articles from representative newspapers in each country. The study shows that newspaper reporting about haze has changed from a discussion of the potential health and economic impacts of fires resulting partly naturally from El Niño-induced droughts, toward an increasing vilification of Indonesia for not ratifying the 2002 Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution; plus criticism of Singaporean and Malaysian companies investing in palm oil plantations, and ASEAN. Attention to climate change and potential biodiversity loss linked to haze, however, remains low. The paper argues that newspaper analysis of public concerns, despite political influences on the press, offers insights into how public criticism is voiced in these countries, and how perceived responsibility for action is changing.     

Solidarity in transboundary flood risk management: A view from the Dutch North Rhine–Westphalian catchment area

Climate change is putting pressure on water systems, and its effects transcend man-made boundaries, making cooperation across territorial borders essential. The governance of transboundary flood risk management calls for solidarity among riparians, as climate change will make river basins more prone to flooding. ‘Solidarity’ means that individuals act to support members of a particular community to which they belong. Recently, the solidarity principle has become institutionalized due to its formalization in the EU Floods Directive. However, it is not clear what solidarity means in the upstream–downstream practices of transboundary flood risk management. Understanding the meaning of solidarity is important for the development of cross-border climate adaptation governance. This article discusses the conceptualization of the solidarity principle and explores its meaning for international cooperation in the Dutch North Rhine–Westphalian border region. Our critical case study reveals that although all actors understand the importance of solidarity, they interpret it differently, often based on self-interest related to their position in the catchment. The formal inclusion of the solidarity principle in the Floods Directive can best be seen as a step in the continuous development of transboundary flood risk governance, as no striking changes in practice have been identified after its formalization.

Policy relevance

As climate change increasingly puts pressure on river basins and other shared resources, cross-border cooperation and solidarity are seen as increasingly important. This article discusses the meaning of solidarity in practice and reveals how this normative principle may contribute to transboundary climate adaptation governance. Understanding its meaning is important for future cross-border climate adaptation governance.     

Measuring,mapping and quantifying the effects of trust and informal communication on transboundary collaboration in the Great Lakes fisheries policy network

Ecosystem-based management of fisheries and other transboundary natural resources require a number of organizations across jurisdictions to exchange knowledge, coordinate policy goals and engage in collaborative activities. Trust, as part of social capital, is considered a key mechanism facilitating the coordination of such inter-organizational policy networks. However, our understanding of multi-dimensional trust as a theoretical construct and an operational variable in environmental and natural resource management has remained largely untested. This paper presents an empirical assessment of trust and communication measures applied to the North American Great Lakes fisheries policy network. Using a scale-based method developed for this purpose, we quantify the prevalence of different dimensions of trust and in/formal communication in the network and their differentiated impacts on decision-making and goal consensus. Our analysis reveals that calculation-based ‘rational trust’ is important for aligning mutual goals, but relationship-based ‘affinitive trust’ is most significant for influencing decision-making. Informal communication was also found to be a strong predictor of how effectively formal communication will influence decision-making, confirming the “priming” role of informal interactions in formal inter-agency dealings. The results also show the buffering and interactive functions of these components in strengthening institutional resilience, with procedural trust undergirding the system to compensate for a lack of well-developed relationships. Overall, this study provides evidence to suggest that informal communication and multi-dimensional trust constitute a crucial element for improving collaboration and reducing conflict in the networked governance of transboundary natural resource systems.     

Estimation of transboundary transport contribution to the air pollution in the far east region using the chemistry transport model

The CHIMERE mesoscale chemistry transport model is used for the quantitative assessment of the contribution of transboundary transport of anthropogenic admixtures from China to the surface concentrations of major suspended pollutants, aerosol PM₁₀, ozone O₃, and nitrogen oxides NO_x in the Far Eastern region. Analyzed in detail are the time series of concentration of mentioned substances computed with the model taking account and not taking account of anthropogenic emissions in China. It is revealed that the transboundary transport of anthropogenic pollutants can cause the recurring episodes of manyfold increase in the concentration of PM₁₀ in the south of Khabarovsk region, as well as more rare variations of O₃ and NO_x concentration. The trajectory and synoptic analysis demonstrated that the episodes of the increase in the concentration of PM₁₀ and O₃ in the south of the region mainly depend on the carryover of air masses from northeastern China in the front part of continental cyclones.     

The role of uncertainties in the design of international water treaties: an historical perspective

Water is one natural resource whose management is especially susceptible to uncertainties, many of which are being exasperated by climate change. Some of these uncertainties originate from knowledge deficits in physical conditions while others relate to behavioral and social variability related to water supply and use. However, to our knowledge no quantitative analysis of how uncertainties have been translated into transboundary water treaty structures exists. The present paper partially fills this gap through an examination of how uncertainty has been reflected in basin specific transboundary treaties and how that reflection has changed over the last century. While we could identify only minor trends in the frequency with which uncertainties are mentioned in treaties, we did find two clear patterns in the strategies adopted to deal with them. First, treaties seem to adopt a portfolio approach that spreads the dangers of uncertainty by concurrently including several management strategies simultaneously. Second, there is a trend towards more open-ended strategies in recent decades, rather than hard codification of rules as had earlier been more common.     

Russian behaviour in the market for permits under the Kyoto Protocol

After the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the extension of national quotas in the Bonn and Marrakesh agreements, meagre environmental effects and a low price of emission permits are likely to be the outcome of implementation. This paper attempts to analyze this scenario, mainly in relation to the Russian case. I discuss on the basis of certain key assumptions the strategic options open to the supply side of the permit market and Russia’s potentially incompatible interests as a producer of oil and gas on the one hand and a dominating seller of emission permits under the Kyoto Protocol on the other. The analysis shows that Russian oil and gas interests are likely to boost Russia’s inclination to sell permits, ultimately resulting in lower permit prices.     

Energy use, climate change and folk psychology: Does sustainability have a chance? Results from a qualitative study in five European countries

Citizens’ support for policies that aim to curb carbon emissions and energy use is often seen as informed by their values, attitudes and perceptions of the environmental problem in question. We argue that we also need to understand how people conceptualise policies and the governance approaches underpinning them to be able to judge the likely acceptance of policy change.In this study, we draw on qualitative interviews (n = 202) from five European countries to explore citizens’ views on governance approaches to stimulate behavioural change in the field of resource use, including regulations, price changes, collective action, technological change and education.We found that many of our interviewees referred to generalised characteristics of humankind and contemporary society to back up their arguments for or against specific governance approaches. In particular, many interviewees concurred that people in general were so self-centred, driven by habit and money- and consumption-oriented that only strict regulations, drastic price changes and technological innovation could possibly achieve widespread behavioural change. As a consequence, such ‘folk psychologies’ can have substantial impact not only on public acceptance, but also on the success of policy measures that aim to reduce citizens’ resource use.     

Tendencies in precipitation pH dynamics in the Russian Far East

The results of studies of an acid-base indicator of the snow cover pH in the Primorskii krai for 2004–2005 are analyzed. Long-term observations of precipitation pH in the Russian Far East region are also considered. The results of studies of the snow cover pH of 2005 differed from the earlier data by the lower values of the acid-base indicator. Synoptic analysis demonstrated that acid precipitation in the Primorskii krai could be due to long-range transboundary pollution transport from Central China. The tendency towards a decrease in the precipitation pH values over most of the Far East region is traced from long-term observations, which under conditions of the general economy recession and population decrease can be attributed to transboundary transport of acid precipitation.     

China's ascent and Africa's environment

China's unprecedented economic growth path over the last two decades has been paralleled by an exponential growth in the consumption of natural resources and in pollution. Initially, China mainly exploited domestic resources to fuel its rapid industrial development. But over the last decade, increasing shares of China's natural resources consumption and environmental impacts relate to peripheral regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. China's environmental impacts in peripheral regions seem in line with World-Systems Theory predictions for ascending world powers. This paper assesses the extent to which the World-Systems Theory idea of ‘environmentally unequal exchange’ between ascending world powers and peripheral economies reflects current behaviour of Chinese governmental authorities and companies in sub-Saharan Africa. It concludes that the theory only partly does so. Behaviour of Chinese governmental authorities and firms is conditioned and guided by environmental norms, as well. World-Systems Theory has to make conceptual space for such new environmental behaviour of ascending world powers, to understand the contemporary and future world-systems. At the same time, China has a long way to go before becoming the ‘green’ exemplar for the world to follow.     

The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy

Strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate change recognize that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can reduce the build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. However, climate mitigation policies do not generally incorporate the effects of these changes in the land surface on the surface albedo, the fluxes of sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere, and the distribution of energy within the climate system. Changes in these components of the surface energy budget can affect the local, regional, and global climate. Given the goal of mitigating climate change, it is important to consider all of the effects of changes in terrestrial vegetation and to work toward a better understanding of the full climate system. Acknowledging the importance of land surface change as a component of climate change makes it more challenging to create a system of credits and debits wherein emission or sequestration of carbon in the biosphere is equated with emission of carbon from fossil fuels. Recognition of the complexity of human-caused changes in climate does not, however, weaken the importance of actions that would seek to minimize our disturbance of the Earth’s environmental system and that would reduce societal and ecological vulnerability to environmental change and variability.     

Addressing knowledge gaps for transboundary environmental governance

Knowledge is widely considered a key ingredient for the effective and sustainable governance of the environment. In transboundary settings – i.e., where political boundaries cross natural resource system boundaries – there are considerable barriers to knowledge production and use. Resulting knowledge gaps can be barriers to governance. This research examines three case studies in which international river basin organizations, tasked with facilitating cooperation in transboundary river basins, recognized and addressed knowledge gaps to support governance of shared waters. We synthesize across the three case studies to develop a typology of knowledge gaps and the strategies used to address those gaps. In identifying common types of knowledge gaps and the on-the-ground strategies used to fill them, this research provides an important framework for assessing and theorizing knowledge at the transboundary scale, as well as useful recommendations and examples for practitioners seeking to develop that knowledge.     

The rule of law in governance of complex socio-ecological changes

This article discusses the impact of the rule of law on the resilience of societies for governing complex socio-ecological changes. It concludes that the notions of the rule of law and legal certainty have changed, and that they can be compatible with the use of framework laws of a rather open-textured character, provided certain legal safeguards, such as the right to a legal review, are at hand. While legal certainty is an important virtue of law, it does not as such necessarily prevent adequate flexibility in administrative decision-making concerning health, the environment or the use of natural resources. The article also considers to what extent certain established administrative means of control in the field of environment protection and the use of natural resources match the findings and proposals, e.g. on flexibility and adaptability, provided by resilience research. Finally the article discusses the impact of state sovereignty on governance of large-scale socio-ecological changes, with reach across state borders. It concludes that, despite some attempts of softening the impact of state borders in transboundary environmental decision-making and management, state sovereignty still hampers multilevel governance and management of resources in such contexts.