Sand beach ridges record 6000 year history of extreme tropical cyclone activity in northeastern Australia

Sand beach ridges are considered to be derived either from aeolian processes and/or waves but their deposition by individual or multiple storms has not been investigated in any detail. We use numerical meteorological and oceanographic models to determine the origin of a sequence of 29 shore parallel sand beach ridges in northeastern Australia. The results suggest that the ridges were constructed by waves and that the final form or height of the ridges is a function of high-energy tropical cyclone generated waves plus storm tides. Hence these landforms archive a nearly 6000 year long history of intense tropical cyclones. The record implies that these extreme tempests occur considerably more frequently than that suggested by the short historical record for this region. The genesis of this sand beach ridge plain has implications for the interpretation of similar sequences elsewhere along the northeast coast of Australia and in comparable environments globally. If other similar sand beach ridge plains have also been deposited by like processes it stands to reason that these long-term records of high intensity tropical cyclones can be used to ascertain a regional scale risk assessment from this hazard.     

Coastal lagoons and beach ridges as complementary sedimentary archives for the reconstruction of Holocene relative sea‐level changes

Coastal lagoons and beach ridges are genetically independent, though non‐continuous, sedimentary archives. We here combine the results from two recently published studies in order to produce an 8000‐year‐long record of Holocene relative sea‐level changes on the island of Samsø, southern Kattegat, Denmark. The reconstruction of the initial mid‐Holocene sea‐level rise is based on the sedimentary infill from topography‐confined coastal lagoons (Sander et al., Boreas, 2015b). Sea‐level index points over the mid‐ to late Holocene period of sea‐level stability and fall are retrieved from the internal structures of a wide beach‐ridge system (Hede et al., The Holocene, 2015). Data from sediment coring, georadar and absolute dating are thus combined in an inter‐disciplinary approach that is highly reproducible in micro‐tidal environments characterised by high sediment supply. We show here that the commonly proximate occurrence of coastal lagoons and beach ridges allows us to produce seamless time series of relative sea‐level changes from field sites in SW Scandinavia and in similar coastal environments.     

Coarse‐sand beach ridges at Cowley Beach,north‐eastern Australia: Their formative processes and potential as records of tropical cyclone history

Storm surges generated by tropical cyclones have been considered a primary process for building coarse‐sand beach ridges along the north‐eastern Queensland coast, Australia. This interpretation has led to the development of palaeotempestology based on the beach ridges. To better identify the sedimentary processes responsible for these ridges, a high‐resolution chronostratigraphic analysis of a series of ridges was carried out at Cowley Beach, Queensland, a meso‐tidal beach system with a >3 m tide range. Optically stimulated luminescence ages indicate that 10 ridges accreted seaward over the last 2500 to 2700 years. The ridge crests sit +3·5 to 5·1 m above Australian Height Datum (ca mean sea‐level). A ground‐penetrating radar profile shows two distinct radar facies, both of which are dissected by truncation surfaces. Hummocky structures in the upper facies indicate that the nucleus of the beach ridge forms as a berm at +2·5 m Australian Height Datum, equivalent to the fair‐weather swash limit during high tide. The lower facies comprises a sequence of seaward‐dipping reflections. Beach progradation thus occurs via fair‐weather‐wave accretion of sand, with erosion by storm waves resulting in a sporadic sedimentary record. The ridge deposits above the fair‐weather swash limit are primarily composed of coarse and medium sands with pumice gravels and are largely emplaced during surge events. Inundation of the ridges is more likely to occur in relation to a cyclone passing during high tide. The ridges may also include an aeolian component as cyclonic winds can transport beach sand inland, especially during low tide, and some layers above +2·5 m Australian Height Datum are finer than aeolian ripples found on the backshore. Coarse‐sand ridges at Cowley Beach are thus products of fair‐weather swash and cyclone inundation modulated by tides. Knowledge of this composite depositional process can better inform the development of robust palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from the ridges.     

Anatomy and sedimentary model of a hooked spit (Sylt,southern North Sea)

A sedimentary model for hooked spit depositional systems based on ground‐penetrating radar and sedimentological data is presented. The recurved main spit of Sylt Island (southern North Sea) is dominated by migrating sand dunes; the investigated hooked spit exhibits a system of foredune ridges, oriented perpendicular to the dunes of the recurved spit. The development of the hooked spit is related closely to the presence of an adjacent tidal inlet, where strong tidal currents and a steep bathymetry prevent a further northward progradation of the main spit and trigger a deflection from northerly‐directed to easterly‐directed net sediment transport. Ground‐penetrating radar data and shallow sediment cores reveal the sedimentary architecture of the hooked spit in high resolution and allow the proposition of a genetic stratigraphic model. It is shown that the growth of the hooked spit is controlled by the interplay of alongshore migrating foreshore beach drifts under fair‐weather conditions and strong erosional events, interpreted as the result of rare severe storms. These storms may excavate scarps in the backshore, which play an important role in the development of foredune ridges. Accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C ages indicate an absolute age of at least 1300 years for the hooked spit, which possibly correlates with strengthened erosion of the main spit. In contrast to the main spit, where the sediment budget is negative nowadays, growth of the hooked spit beach accelerated significantly during the last decades. This effect can probably be attributed to enhanced beach‐nourishments updrift along the main spit and makes the investigated hooked spit a natural laboratory to study the influence of increasing sediment supply into a system developing under the conditions of sea‐level rise. The study shows that the same external forces lead to distinct progradational processes along one barrier‐spit system.     

Rapid sea level and climate change at the close of the Last Interglaciation (MIS 5e): evidence from the Bahama Islands

The geology of the Last Interglaciation (sensu stricto, marine isotope substage (MIS) 5e) in the Bahamas records the nature of sea level and climate change. After a period of quasi-stability for most of the interglaciation, during which reefs grew to +2.5 m, sea level rose rapidly at the end of the period, incising notches in older limestone. After brief stillstands at +6 and perhaps +8.5 m, sea level fell with apparent speed to the MIS 5d lowstand and much cooler climatic conditions. It was during this regression from the MIS 5e highstand that the North Atlantic suffered an oceanographic “reorganization” about 118±3 ka ago. During this same interval, massive dune-building greatly enlarged the Bahama Islands. Giant waves reshaped exposed lowlands into chevron-shaped beach ridges, ran up on older coastal ridges, and also broke off and threw megaboulders onto and over 20 m-high cliffs. The oolitic rocks recording these features yield concordant whole-rock amino acid ratios across the archipelago. Whether or not the Last Interglaciation serves as an appropriate analog for our “greenhouse” world, it nonetheless reveals the intricate details of climatic transitions between warm interglaciations and near glacial conditions.     

波浪作用下砂质滩坝的沉积过程与沉积模式

受波浪及沿岸流影响,在滨岸地区形成的滩坝砂体是滨海（湖）带发育的主要砂体类型。目前国内外学者对滩坝沉积砂体的认识多来自于现代沉积和油气地质特征,对滩坝砂体的沉积机制和内部结构研究相对较弱。基于沉积水槽实验,采用规则波浪对沙质斜坡滨岸带进行模拟实验,观测波浪作用下滨岸带滩坝形成过程和波浪运动特征,记录波浪作用下滨岸带沙质滩坝在不同浪带平面时空演化规律。实验结果显示:波浪是改造湖岸原有沉积物的关键驱动力,波浪作用下沙质岸滩床面泥砂将发生输移运动,而滩坝是陆湖（海）泥沙在水动力驱动下搬运沉积的结果,水动力的强弱及水流结构引起泥沙在空间上的不均匀输运和分布,进而塑造不同的滩坝形态。与强波浪相关的高水位可以加速滩坝系统的形成并最终形成大规模的滩坝砂;相比之下,与较弱波浪相关的低水位只能略微改变初始沉积物形态。根据不同的沉积物特征可将实验中的滩坝系统分为三类:冲浪带和碎浪带滩坝系统近端部分的大规模厚层坝砂,破浪带和升浪带滩坝系统中部分布广泛的薄滩砂,以及位于滩坝系统中远端的弧形或平行排列的脊状、砂纹坝砂。建立了水槽实验模式下滩坝沉积模式,可用于指导油气勘探开发。     

Depositional and diagenetic history of Pleistocene and Holocene oolitic sediments and sabkhas in Kuwait, Persian Gulf

The Pleistocene and Holocene oolitic sediments of southern Kuwait appear as parallel ridges—ancient and recent barrier beaches and coastal dunes. They are underlain by Tertiary clastic deposits and interfingered with sabkhas. Considering the superposition, primary composition and diagenetic alterations five lithostratigraphic units were distinguished within the oolitic complex. Their formation and preservation were related principally to eustatic oscillations of sea level during Quaternary times, although post-Pliocene tectonics also played an important role both in physiographic and sedimentary developments of the region. The large accumulation of oolites in southern Kuwait might be related, at least partly, to the existence of two tidal channels, khors, discharging waters over-saturated with respect to calcium carbonate over broad tidal flats. The formation of oolites culminated in late Pleistocene probably due to an extreme aridity of the climate. The subaerial diagenesis of the oolitic ridges led to gradual cementation and recrystallization of oolites. The four stages of progressive diagenesis distinguished in the area are compared with schemes suggested by Land, Mackenzie & Gould (1967) for Quaternary sediments in Bermuda and by Gavish & Friedman (1969) for aeolianite ridges in Israel. On the sea floor the cementation has produced widespread beach rocks and hard layers. Aragonite encrustations and dripstones occur within the intertidal zone of channels and lagoons. The shallow, occasionally flooded depresssions in sabkhas are occupied by algal mats. The amount of dolomite in sabkha sediments is rather low in comparison with similar environments of the southern Persian Gulf. This might be at least partly explained by the absence of dolomitic rocks in the Tertiary substratum in Kuwait. The complex of Quaternary sediments in southern Kuwait represents a petroleum setting in which the organic rich source sediments of lagoons and sabkhas are closely associated with highly porous reservoir rocks of the oolitic coastal ridges.     

Internal architecture of a raised beach ridge system (Anholt,Denmark) resolved by ground-penetrating radar investigations

The internal architecture of raised beach ridge and associated swale deposits on Anholt records an ancient sea level. The Holocene beach ridges form part of a progradational beach ridge plain, which has been interpreted to have formed during an isostatic uplift and a relative fall in the sea level over the past 7700 years. The ridges are covered by pebbles and cobbles and commonly show evidence of deflation. Material presumably removed from the beach ridges and adjacent swales form the present dune forms on Anholt. Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection lines have been collected with 250 MHz shielded antennae across the fossil ridge and swale structures. The signals penetrate the subsurface to a maximum depth of ～ 10 m below the fossil features. The GPR data resolve the internal architecture of the beach ridges and swales with a vertical resolution of about 0.1 m. GPR mapping indicates that the Holocene beach ridges are composed of seaward-dipping beachface deposits as well as minor amounts of inland dipping deposits of wash-over origin. The beachface deposits downlap on underlying shoreface deposits, and we use these surfaces as markers of a relative palaeo-sea level. The new data indicate that the highest relative sea level at about 8.5 m was reached 6500 years ago; 700 years later the relative sea level had dropped 0.7 m indicating a change in the relative sea level around 1 mm/year. This fall in the relative sea level most likely records the influence of an isostatic rebound causing younger beach ridge deposits to indicate lower sea levels.     

Storm extreme levels and coastal flood hazards: A parametric approach on the French coast of Languedoc (district of Leucate)

Coastal flooding is a significant risk on the shores of Languedoc-Roussillon. The storms that periodically hit the coast can generate strong swells and storm surges. Most beach resorts, built on a low elevation dune ridge, are periodically flooded during major storms. Although risks zoning regulations take into consideration coastal flood hazards, the delineation of vulnerable areas is still insufficient and the commonly accepted threshold is regularly exceeded during most severe storms. This paper presents a method to improve the assessment of extreme storm-related water levels. It relies on fieldwork carried out in the Leucate commune (Aude), which is particularly exposed to the risk of sea level rise. It considers both storm surges and wave phenomena that occur within the surf zone (set-up and swash), calculated from the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN^®) numerical wave model and the Stockdon formula. Water levels reached during several recent storm events have been reconstructed and simulations of submerged areas were carried out by numerical modelling.     

Operational wave prediction of extreme storms in Northern Europe

The disastrous effects of numerous winter storms on the marine environment in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea during the last decade show that wind waves generated by strong winds actually represent natural hazards and require high quality wave forecast systems as warning tools to avoid losses due to the impact of rough seas. Hence, the operational wave forecast system running at the German Weather Service including a regional wave model for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is checked extensively whether it provides reasonable wave forecasts, especially for periods of extraordinary high sea states during winter storms. For two selected extreme storm events that induced serious damage in the area of interest, comprehensive comparisons between wave measurements and wave model forecast data are accomplished. Spectral data as well as integrated parameters are considered, and the final outcome of the corresponding comparisons and statistical analysis is encouraging. Over and above the capability to provide good short-term forecast results, the regional wave model is able to predict extreme events as severe winter storms connected with extraordinary high waves already about 2 days in advance. Therefore, it represents an appropriate warning tool for offshore activities and coastal environment.     

Chevron Ridges and Runup Deposits in the Bahamas from Storms Late in Oxygen-Isotope Substage 5e

Landward-pointing V-shaped sand ridges several kilometers long are common along the windward margin of the Bahama Islands. Their axes share a northeast–southwest trend. Internally, the ridges contain low-angle oolitic beds with few erosional truncations. Commonly interbedded are tabular, fenestrae-rich beds such as those formed by the sheet flow of water over dry sand. Defined here as “chevron ridges,” these landforms appear to have originated in the rapid remobilization of bank margin ooid bodies by the action of long-period waves from a northeasterly source. Deposits along adjacent coastlines also preserve evidence of the impact of large waves. Reworked eolian sand bodies preserve beach fenestrae and hydraulic scour traces up to +40 m on older ridges. On cliffed coasts, 1000-ton boulders have been thrown well inland, recording the impact of large waves. Amino acid ratios confirm a correlation of the ridges across the archipelago, while stratigraphy, spacing, and cross-cutting relationships indicate emplacement as sea level fell rapidly from the substage 5e maximum at or above +6 m.     

珠江口盆地惠州凹陷新近系珠江组K22陆架砂脊沉积成因分析*

通过分析珠江口盆地惠州凹陷新近系珠江组NE—SW向平行于古岸线展布的K22条带状砂体外部地震反射特征、内部反射结构及平面展布规律,并运用层序地层学方法和理论,结合海平面变化特点,对K22条带状砂脊沉积成因进行了研究。结果显示:K22条带状砂脊为发育在陆架区古构造高带、受控于强制性海退过程的再沉积产物,其物源来自于早期的三角洲,沉积水动力条件多样,主要为海退过程中的潮汐流和波浪作用;同时,沿岸流也对砂脊形态的形成起到了关键作用,这些砂脊后期得益于快速的海侵而保留下来。留存下来的沙脊沉积被包裹在海相泥岩背景中,可形成良好的岩性圈闭。     

Impact of hydro-isostatic holocene sea-level change on the geologic context of Island archaeological sites,Northern Ha'apai group,Kingdom of Tonga

Archaeological sites in the northern Ha'apai Group of central Tonga occur on small islands within the uplifted forearc belt of the Tonga-Kermadec arc-trench system. The present inland positions of occupation sites that probably once occupied coastal settings imply significant expansion of some island shorelines during late Holocene time (ca. 3250 B.P. to present). Geologic processes leading potentially to enlargement of the islands include continuing forearc uplift, eustatic or glacio-hydro-isostatic fall in sea level following a mid-Holocene highstand, and progressive accretion of beach ridges to island coasts, with or without changes in relative sea level. Radiometric dates for uplifted coral terraces in Tonga indicate that forearc uplift has been negligible during Holocene time. By contrast, theoretical considerations, regional analysis of shoreline indicators throughout the South Pacific, and limited empirical data from Tonga itself all imply that regional sea level has declined locally by 1–2 m since a mid-Holocene highstand (ca. 6000-3000 B.P.), which was a hydro-isostatic response to transfer of water mass from Pleistocene ice caps to the ocean basins. Emergence of originally coastal sites is thus expected since initial settlement of the islands by Lapita peoples. Accretionary coastal flats composed of multiple beach ridges are 250–500 m wide on favorable leeward shores and the flanks of sand cays, but some presently unknown proportion of this incremental island growth may have occurred prior to the post-mid-Holocene decline in relative sea level. Ash falls from tephra eruptions at Tongan volcanoes also modified island environments through Quaternary time. Evidence for significant change in the configuration and morphology of islands in Ha'apai during the period of human settlement highlights the need for systematic interdisciplinary archaeological and geological research in the study of Pacific prehistory. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A comparative study on uncooperative search models in survivor search and rescue

The storm impact scale of Sallenger (J Coast Res 890–895, 2000) was tested on a partially engineered beach. This scale is supposed to provide a convenient tool for coastal managers to categorize the storm impact at the shore. It is based on the relation between the elevation of storm wave runup and the elevation of a critical geomorphic or man-made structures in the present study. Two different approaches were tested to estimate the elevation of extreme storm wave runup: (1) a parametric model based on offshore wave conditions and local beach slope and (2) the XBeach process-based model that solves implicitly the runup. The study shows comparisons between impact regimes computed with the two methods and those derived from video observations acquired during 2 weeks while the site was battered by three consecutive storms. Storms scenario including wave conditions with higher return periods and different tidal range were also investigated. The advantages and disadvantages of the two methods used to compute extreme water level are then compared, and guidelines for the development of early warning system are drawn.     

The structure and development of foredunes on a locally prograding coast: insights from ground-penetrating radar surveys, Norfolk, UK

The internal structure of coastal foredunes from three sites along the north Norfolk coast has been investigated using ground‐penetrating radar (GPR), which provides a unique insight into the internal structure of these dunes that cannot be achieved by any other non‐destructive or geophysical technique. Combining geomorphological and geophysical investigations into the structure and morphology of these coastal foredunes has enabled a more accurate determination of their development and evolution. The radar profiles show the internal structures, which include foreslope accretion, trough cut and fill, roll‐over and beach deposits. Foredune ridges contain large sets of low‐angle cross‐stratification from dune foreslope accretion with trough‐shaped structures from cut and fill on the crest and rearslope. Foreslope accretion indicates sand supply from the beach to the foreslope, while troughs on the dune crest and rearslope are attributed to reworking by offshore winds. Bounding surfaces between dunes are clearly resolved and reveal the relative chronology of dune emplacement. Radar sequence boundaries within dunes have been traced below the water‐table passing into beach erosion surfaces. These are believed to result from storm activity, which erodes the upper beach and dunes. In one example, at Brancaster, a dune scarp and erosion surface may be correlated with erosion in the 1950s, possibly the 1953 storm. Results suggest that dune ridge development is intimately linked to changes in the shoreline, with dune development associated with coastal progradation while dunes are eroded during storms and, where beaches are eroding, a stable coast provides more time for dune development, resulting in higher foredune ridges. A model for coastal dune evolution is presented, which illustrates stages of dune development in response to beach evolution and sand supply. In contrast to many other coastal dune fields where the prevailing wind is onshore, on the north Norfolk coast, the prevailing wind is directed along the coast and offshore, which reduces the landward migration of sand dunes.     

Emergent coasts of Akimiski Island,James Bay,Northwestern Territories,Canada: geology,geomorphology, and vegetation

Akimiski Island contains good examples of emergent coastal landscapes of a cold mesotidal inland sea. The Paleozoic reefal trend of the Attawapiskat Formation dictated the overall shape and the main structure of the island. Differential erosion and deposition by Pleistocene glaciers have fluted the island in a north-south direction. That surface was later modified by emergent landforms developed in the last 3500–4000 yrs.The modern steeper southern area reaches an elevation of 60 m approximately 3 km inland from the southern shoreline, and contains well-developed sandy and gravelly longitudinal beach ridges and spits, now inactive and covered by a lichen-rich taiga (boreal forest). The flatter, northern part of the island shows a wide transition between the primarily erosional, sand-starved, coastal marshland and the inland organic-rich fens. Partially paludified longitudinal and transversal beach ridges subdivide those northern flat wetlands forcing a straight course to the north-flowing streams.The vegetation zonations of the marshes are as varied as the coasts, facing different oceanographic conditions. Longshore and tidal currents affect the western and southern coasts greatly. Tides, waves and sea ice affect the others more. The marshes resemble those of the mainland in having well-defined Puccinellia phryganodes lower marsh, Carex subspathacea upper marsh, and peat-forming coastal fens. Some components of the marshes of the island, such as isolated mounds with vegetation minisequences, incipient permafrost features generated by seasonal frozen ground conditions, and intense grazing by large populations of geese, are typical of cold settings, more commonly found along mainland coasts farther to the north in James Bay and Hudson Bay.     

Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation.     

Holocene sea‐level reconstruction in the Young Sound region,Northeast Greenland

A relative sea‐level curve over the Holocene is constructed for the Young Sound region in northeastern Greenland. The reconstruction is derived by dating the heights of raised beach ridges in coastal plains using optically stimulated luminiscence (OSL), and by dating palaeoterrestrial surface levels now buried beneath the intertidal frame using the ¹⁴C technique. The relative sea‐level curve reveals a rapid fall of at least 10 mm a^?1 from ca. 9500 to 7500 a ago, which slowed to 2 mm a^?1 until it reached the present sea level ca. 3000 a ago. This part of the curve is based on the raised beach ridge data. Thereafter, relative sea level continued to fall, to reach a minimum level at about 0.5 m below the present sea level ca. 2300 a ago. Since then, relative sea level has experienced a slow rise of about 0.2 mm a^?1. This part of the curve uses the data from the palaeoterrestrial surfaces. The study supplements other estimates of Holocene relative sea‐level changes and supports the observations of a decreasing trend in the timing of the cross point and in minimum relative sea level from South to North Greenland. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diagnosis of historical inundation events in the Marshall Islands to assist early warning systems

Inhabitants of low-lying coral atolls benefit from disaster risk reduction decision makers receiving early warnings of coastal inundation leading to heightened levels of alert and preparedness. Majuro, the capital of the Marshall Islands, is a coral atoll that experiences coastal inundation events on a near annual frequency and is likely to be exacerbated by sea-level rise, increasing the importance of early warning systems. However, current early warnings are not always provided for every inundation event. Inundation is driven by a combination of various oceanographic processes that contribute to sea level at the coastline, with the primary driver dependent on how extreme a particular process may be at the time. Incoming swell from distant storms and cyclones can trigger an inundation event, especially when coinciding with high spring tides and/or sea-level anomalies. Historical data from three directional scenarios were analysed to determine the critical values for offshore wave height, peak period, directional range, and sea level that had led to inundation in the past. Bulk wave statistics and static sea level were found to be sufficient information to identify the occurrence of an inundation event. These inundation thresholds serve as a reference to be used in conjunction with forecast models as an analogue for future events informing both the likelihood and impact. The analysis showed that inundation with a significant contributing swell factor propagates via three main routes, with approximately 50% occurring from the north-east. The two highest sea-level measurements on record both occurred during La Niña events, with both leading to inundation, suggesting that spring tides during La Niña events should exhibit a heightened level of alert for inundation at Majuro regardless of swell contribution.

     

Extreme sea levels,coastal flooding and climate change with a focus on Atlantic Canada

Estimation of the probability distribution of extreme sea levels, for the present time and the next century, is discussed. Two approaches are described and their strengths and weaknesses are compared. The first approach is based on dynamics and uses a storm surge model forced by tides, winds and air pressure fields. The second approach is based on the statistical analysis of observed hourly sea level records using a new first-order Markov process that can capture non-Gaussian characteristics (such as skewness) in the non-tidal component of the observed sea level record. It is shown that both approaches can provide good estimates of present day flooding probabilities for regions with relatively strong tides. The limitations of both approaches in terms of assessing the effect of global sea level rise, glacial-isostatic adjustment of the land, and changes in the frequency and severity of storms and hurricanes, are illustrated using recent results for the Northwest Atlantic. Some sensitivity studies are carried out to transform uncertainty in climate change projections into uncertainties in the probability of coastal flooding.