The behaviour of prominence areas in the 11-Year cycle and their relationship with other solar events

On the basis of the data on prominence areas for 1880–1976 and positions of the boundary background magnetic field for 1955–1982 it is shown that the maximum development of prominences and their poleward migration, accompanied by the magnetic field reversal, concides with the first maximum of the 11-year solar cycle, which is characterized by an enhancement of solar activity at all latitudes. The second maximum is an increase of all features, including prominences but in the low latitudes only. That prominence zone migrates poleward in the following 11-year solar cycle.     

Some features of climate change on Earth and its possible relation to solar-activity variations

The global warming on Earth during the last century has been discussed in many studies. The most significant factors of climate change are the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, catastrophic eruptions of volcanoes, and variations in the solar activity. In this paper, we consider the character of climate change and its possible relation to solar-activity variations using the data of the global network of meteorological stations on temperature variations in different regions across the globe from 1880 and information about variations in the relative sunspot number over the last 300 years and temporal variations in the total solar irradiation. We found that the annual mean sunspot number increased on average by about 0.2% per year in both 11-year and secular cycles. The increase in the globally averaged surface air temperature in the period 1880–2004 was Δt = 0.61 ± 0.04 °C. The difference in Δt calculated for periods with different solar-activity levels in 11-year cycles was estimated. This difference was most clearly revealed over land at high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The medians of the distributions of the annual mean surface air temperature over land, ocean, and over the entire globe in years with high solar activity in the secular cycle are significantly greater than the corresponding values related to the years of low solar activity. Noticeable falls in temperature (by ～0.1–0.2°C) through ～1900–1920 and 1945–1980 are likely to be associated with the radiation balance perturbation caused by a large number of catastrophic volcanic eruptions during these periods. A considerable warming during the last three decades is most probably due to the substantial growth in the rate of carbon dioxide input to the atmosphere and the corresponding large increase in its concentration. The importance of this factor of global warming becomes even greater if we bear in mind that the solar activity in the secular cycle declines after 1970.     

Polar magnetic field reversals of the Sun in Maunder Minimum

A possible scenario of polar magnetic field reversal of the Sun during the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715) is discussed using data of magnetic field reversals of the Sun for 1880–1991 and the¹⁴ C content variations in the bi-annual rings of the pine-trees in 1600–1730 yrs.     

Period study of the binary star SW Cygni

The O−C curve of SW Cyg between 1880 and 1977 is presented and discussed. It is found that the orbital period undergoes a systematic change, becoming greater with time. In addition, a periodic oscillation of amplitude 0 _. ^d 015 with period of 43.8 years is superimposed on this general trend. It is concluded that the increase in the period is due to a transfer of mass from the secondary star to the primary and the periodic oscillation is due to the light time effect of the third body of mass functionf(m)=0.006M _⊙.     

Lichenometry in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru: “Little Ice Age” moraine chronology

This paper is a comparison and compilation of lichenometric and geomorphic studies performed by two independent teams in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, in 1996 and 2002 on 66 “Little Ice Age” moraines of 14 glaciers. Using eleven new control points, we recalibrated the initial rapid growth phase of the previously established Rhizocarpon subgenus Rhizocarpon growth curve. This curve was then used to estimate the age of “Little Ice Age” moraines. The time of deposition of the most prominent and numerous terminal and lateral moraines on the Pacific-facing side of the Cordillera Blanca (between AD 1590 and AD 1720) corresponds to the coldest and wettest phase in the tropical Andes as revealed by ice-core data. Less prominent advances occurred between AD 1780 and 1880.     

A Statistical Study of the Relation between the Amplitude of Solar Cycle and the Area of Active Regions

Based on the observational data of sunspots, the relation between the amplitude of solar cycle and the total area of all active regions occurred in a solar cycle has been investigated. The result shows that the amplitude of solar cycle has a good correlation with the total area of all active regions occurred in the solar cycle. The relation between the amplitude of solar cycle and the area of the largest active region during a solar cycle has also been investigated. The result shows that the amplitude of solar cycle has a poor correlation with the area of the largest active region during a solar cycle, and there is no fixed relation between the peak time of a solar cycle and the time when the largest active region occurred in the solar cycle.     

Discovery of a companion at the brown dwarf limit to the solar‐type star Gliese 29

Gliese 29 is a 7 to 8 Gyr old, southern Population I turnoff star with a large proper motion of 1″/yr. Using recent direct imaging observations with the 0.8 m Infrared Imaging System (IRIS) of the Universitätssternwarte Bochum near Cerro Armazones in Chile, we demonstrate that the faint source 2MASS J00402651–5927168 at a projected angular separation ρ = 6.″35 is a common‐proper‐motion companion to Gl 29. Provided this source is not part of a further subsystem, the IRIS J ‐ and K_s‐band photometry either implies a spectral type of about L2, based on its absolute magnitude, or an approximate mass M_B ≃ 0.077 M_⊙, suggesting that it may even be a brown dwarf. Assuming a face‐on circular orbit this faint companion orbits Gl 29 in 1880 years. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Phase Relationships Between the CME-Energy Cycle,the Sunspot-Area Cycle and the Flare-Index Cycle

We study the phase relationships between the coronal-mass-ejection (CME) energy cycle, the sunspot-area cycle, and the flare-index cycle from 1996 to 2010. The results show the following: i) The activity cycle of the flare index significantly leads the activity cycle of the sunspot area. ii) The activity cycle of the CME energy is inferred to be almost in phase with the activity cycle of the sunspot area; the activity cycle of the CME energy at low latitudes slightly leads the activity cycle of the sunspot area; the CME energy at high latitudes is shown to significantly lag behind the sunspot area. iii) The CME energy is shown to significantly lag behind the flare index; the CME energy at low latitudes is shown to slightly lag behind the flare index; the CME energy at high latitudes is shown to significantly lag behind the flare index.     

Prediction for the amplitude of solar cycle 24 from the pattern of activity near the cycle minimum

Correlations are investigated between the pattern of solar activity described by the smoothed monthly relative sunspot numbers (Wolf numbers) near the minimum of a solar cycle and the cycle amplitude. The closest correlation is found between the amplitude of a solar cycle and the sum of the decrease in activity over two years prior to the cycle minimum and the increase in activity over two years after the minimum; the correlation coefficient between these parameters is 0.92. This parameter is used as a precursor to predict the amplitude of solar cycle 24, which is expected to reach its maximum amplitude (85 ± 12) in February 2014. Based on the correlations between the mean parameters of solar cycles, cycle 24 is expected to last for approximately 11.3 years and the minimum of the next cycle 25 is predicted for May 2020.     

Occurrence of bidirectional type III bursts in solar flares

The 13 pairs of type III bursts with the bidirectional drift structures recorded with the spectrograph in the frequency ranges of 230–300 MHz and 625–1500 MHz at the Yunnan Observatory and 2600–3800 MHz at the Beijing National Astronomical Observatories are analyzed in this present article and the outstanding characteristics of these events are obtained. These bursts respectively reveal that the separatrix frequency between the bursts with positive and negative drifts comes between 250 MHz and 3420 MHz, with a gap being between 0.6 MHz and 110 MHz; the duration is 53 ms–1880 ms and the frequency drift rate is between 45 MHz/s and 56000 MHz/s. The drift rate at metric wavelengths is relatively low, only a few decades of MHz while it is comparatively high at microwave wavelengths, reaching 56000 MHz/s. The qualitative explanation of these events is given in this paper.     

The origin of the Moon: Theories involving joint formation with the Earth

A planet the size of the Earth or the Moon is much like a blast furnace; it produces slag-like rock floating on a mass of liquid metal. In the Earth, the mantle and crust are the slag, and the core is the liquid iron.In the Moon, there is clear chemical evidence that liquid iron was separated from the mass, but the Moon has no detectable iron core. This points to some kind of joint origin, which put the metallic iron in the Earth's core. For instance, the Moon might have been a detached part of the rocky matter of the Earth, as suggested by G. H. Darwin in the 1880's. But is is also clear, as Ringwood has pointed out, the there has been an enormous loss of volatiles from both Earth and Moon, but especially from the Moon. It may be that the Moon formed from a sediment-ring of small bodies detached somehow from the outer parts of the Earth, as Öpik has suggested.If tektites come from the Moon, then Darwin's suggestion is probably right; if they come from the Earth, then the Öpik-Ringwood sediment ring may be the origin.Paper presented at the AAAS Symposium on the Early History of the Earth and Moon in Philadelphia on 28 December 1971.     

On the prospect of using butterfly diagrams to predict cycle minimum

On the basis of butterfly diagrams for the period 1874-present (covering late cycle 11 through late cycle 21), features are identified that may be useful for predicting the beginning and the length of a solar cycle, as well as the discernment of turning points in the period-growth dichotomy. For example, the first occurrence of high latitude new cycle spots during the decline of an old cycle usually occurs in the northern hemisphere, regardless of bimodal class, about 1.4 yr before new cycle minimum or about 5.4 yr after old cycle maximum, being true for 7 out of the 10 data-available cycles. Also, the last occurrence of high latitude old cycle spots tends to occur in the southern hemisphere when the old cycle is of long period (4 out of 4 cycles) and to occur in the northern hemisphere when the old cycle is of short period (4 out of 5 cycles). Application of these sorting features to the butterfly diagram for late cycle 21 yields candidate dates for the last occurrence of high latitude old cycle spots which in every case predict that cycle 21 will be a long-period cycle, ending after July 1987. Taking April 1985 to be the first occurrence of high latitude new cycle (cycle 22) spots during the decline of cycle 21 (the old cycle), one deduces that the last occurrence of high latitude old cycle spots was September 1983 (occurring in the southern hemisphere) and predicts that minimum for cycle 22 will be about 1986.7 ± 1.1 yr, or that it should occur before the end of 1987.     

The 10-year time delay of the solar cycle luminosity modulation of the Sun behind the solar cycle magnetic oscillation

We found an evidence that the solar cycle luminosity modulation of the Sun deduced from the total irradiance modulation which was measured by the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment on board of Nimbus 7 from November 16, 1978 to December 13, 1993 was not in phase with the solar cycle magnetic oscillation when we used the sunspot relative number as its index. The modulation was delayed in time behind the solar cycle magnetic oscillation by an amount of about 10.3 years on the order of length of one solar cycle. In order to quantitatively evaluate the correlation between the two quantities, we devised a method to extract characteristics which were proper to a particular solar cycle by defining a new index of the correlation called multiplied correlation index (MCI). We found that the characteristics of the ERB data time profile between solar cycles 21 and 22 were more similar to those of the solar cycle magnetic oscillation between solar cycles 20 and 21 than those between solar cycles 21 and 22 and thus the time profile of the luminosity modulation from the maximum phase of solar cycle 21 to the declining phase of the solar cycle 22 corresponded to the solar cycle magnetic oscillation from the maximum phase of solar cycle 20 to the declining phase of solar cycle 21. We interpret this phenomenon as an evidence that main features of the modulation is not caused by dark sunspots and bright faculae and plages on the surface of the Sun that should instantaneously affect the luminosity modulation but is caused by time-delayed modulation of global convection by the Lorentz force of the magnetic field of the solar cycle. The delay time of about 10.3 years is the time needed for the force to modify the flows of the convection and to modulate heat flow. Thus the delay time is a function of the strength of the magnetic field oscillation of the solar cycle which is represented by amplitude of the solar cycle. Accordingly, the delay time for other time intervals of the solar cycle magnetic oscillation with different amplitudes can be different from 10.3 years for the interval of the present analysis.     

预报第23周平滑月平均太阳黑子数的一种方法

利用已知的22个完整太阳活动周平滑月平均黑子数的记录，对正在进行的太阳周发展趋势给出了预测方法，并应用于第23周，同时与其他预报方法的结果进行了比较。     

Meteorite falls in China and some related human casualty events

Abstract— Statistics of witnessed and recovered meteorite falls found in Chinese historical texts for the period from 700 B.C. to A.D. 1920 are presented. Several notable features can be seen in the binned distribution as a function of time. An apparent decrease in the number of meteorite reports in the 18th century is observed. An excess of observed meteorite falls in the period from 1840 to 1880 seems to correspond to a similar excess in European data. A x² probability test suggests that the association between the two data sets are real. Records of human casualties and structural damage resulting from meteorite falls are also given. A calculation based on the number of casualty events in the Chinese meteorite records suggests that the probability of a meteorite striking a human is far greater than previous estimates. However, it is difficult to verify the accuracy of the reported casualty events.     

On the global mean temperature of the thermosphere

The solar extreme ultraviolet (e.u.v.) flux and solar ultraviolet (u.v.) flux in the Schumann-Runge continuum region have been measured by spectrometers on board the Atmosphere Explorer satellites from about 1974 to 1981. The solar flux spectra measured on 23 April 1974 (a day the Atmosphere Explorer satellite reference spectrum was obtained), 13–28 July 1976 (a period of spotless conditions near solar cycle minimum), and 19 February 1979 (a day near solar cycle maximum) are used to examine the global mean temperature structure of the thermosphere above 120 km. The results show that for solar cycle minimum the calculated global mean exospheric temperature is in agreement with empirical model predictions, indicating that the energy absorbed by the thermosphere is balanced by downward molecular thermal conduction. For solar cycle maximum the energy absorbed by the thermosphere is not balanced by downward thermal conduction but agreement between the calculated and observed temperature is obtained with the inclusion of 5.3μm radiational cooling by nitric oxide. Model calculations of the minor neutral constituents in the thermosphere show that about three times more nitric oxide is produced during solar cycle maximum than solar cycle minimum conditions. The results suggest that nitric oxide cooling is small during solar cycle minimum, because of low nitric oxide densities and low thermospheric temperatures, but it becomes significantly larger during solar cycle maximum, when nitric oxide densities and thermospheric temperatures are larger.23 April 1974 was a moderately disturbed day and the results of the global mean temperature calculation indicate that it is necessary to consider a high latitude heat source associated with the geomagnetic activity to obtain agreement between the calculated and observed global mean temperature structure.     

Forecast of the key parameters of the 24-th solar cycle

To predict the key parameters of the solar cycle,a new method is proposed based on the empirical law describing the correlation between the maximum height of the preceding solar cycle and the entropy of the forthcoming one.The entropy of the forthcoming cycle may be estimated using this empirical law,if the maximum height of the current cycle is known.The cycle entropy is shown to correlate well with the cycle's maximum height and,as a consequence,the height of the forthcoming maximum can be estimated.In turn,the correlation found between the height of the maximum and the duration of the ascending branch(the Waldmeier rule)allows the epoch of the maximum,Tmax,to be estimated,if the date of the minimum is known.Moreover,using the law discovered,one can find out the analogous cycles which are similar to the cycle being forecasted,and hence,obtain the synoptic forecast of all main features of the forthcoming cycle.The estimates have shown the accuracy level of this technique to be 86%.The new regularities discovered are also interesting because they are fundamental in the theory of solar cycles and may provide new empirical data.The main parameters of the future solar cycle 24 are as follows: the height of the maximum is Wmax = 95±20,the duration of the ascending branch is Ta = 4.5±0.5 yr,the total cycle duration according to the synoptic forecast is 11.3 yr.     

An optimal method for determining the time of the minimum of the 23rd solar cycle,July 2008

The time of the minimum of the solar cycle is usually determined by the minimum of the average monthly sunspot number smoothed over 13 months, i.e., with a large time delay, not earlier than eight months after the event. A new optimal method which allows one to establish the time of the minimum of the cycle as early as four months after the event is proposed. In the new method, the indicator of the time of a cycle minimum is the time of reaching the minimum level of average monthly values of the solar constant after which four succeeding values of this constant are larger than the pre-ceding minimum level. It is shown that the minimum of the past 23rd solar cycle took place in July, and the new 24th cycle started in August 2008.     

The shape of the sunspot cycle

The temporal behavior of a sunspot cycle, as described by the International sunspot numbers, can be represented by a simple function with four parameters: starting time, amplitude, rise time, and asymmetry. Of these, the parameter that governs the asymmetry between the rise to maximum and the fall to minimum is found to vary little from cycle to cycle and can be fixed at a single value for all cycles. A close relationship is found between rise time and amplitude which allows for a representation of each cycle by a function containing only two parameters: the starting time and the amplitude. These parameters are determined for the previous 22 sunspot cycles and examined for any predictable behavior. A weak correlation is found between the amplitude of a cycle and the length of the previous cycle. This allows for an estimate of the amplitude accurate to within about 30% right at the start of the cycle. As the cycle progresses, the amplitude can be better determined to within 20% at 30 months and to within 10% at 42 months into the cycle, thereby providing a good prediction both for the timing and size of sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 7–12 years of the cycle. The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Bimodality and the Hale cycle

Because of the bimodal distribution of sunspot cycle periods, the Hale cycle (or double sunspot cycle) should show evidence of modulation between 20 and 24 yr, with the Hale cycle having an average length of about 22 yr. Indeed, such a modulation is observed. Comparison of consecutive pairs of cycles strongly suggests that even-numbered cycles are preferentially paired with odd-numbered following cycles. Systematic variations are hinted in both the Hale cycle period and R _sum (the sum of monthly mean sunspot numbers over consecutively paired sunspot cycles). The preferred even-odd cycle pairing suggests that cycles 22 and 23 form a new Hale cycle pair (Hale cycle 12), that cycle 23 will be larger than cycle 22 (in terms of R _M, the maximum smoothed sunspot number, and of the individual cycle value of R _sum), and that the length of Hale cycle 12 will be longer than 22 yr. Because of the strong correlation (r = 0.95) between individual sunspot cycle values of R _sum and R _M, having a good estimate of R _Mfor the present sunspot cycle (22) allows one to predict its R _sum, which further allows an estimation of both R _Mand R _sum for cycle 23 and an estimation of R _sum for Hale cycle 12. Based on Wilson's bivariate fit (r = 0.98), sunspot cycle 22 should have an R _Mequal to 144.4 ± 27.3 (at the 3- level), implying that its R _sum should be about 8600 ± 2200; such values imply that sunspot cycle 23 should have an R _sum of about 10500 ± 2000 and an R _Mof about 175 ± 40, and that Hale cycle 12 should have an R _sum of about 19100 ± 3000.