地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震

自从1990年以来,通过对青藏高原的调查和研究,认识到下地壳流动同步形成盆地和造山带,并受控于相关洋盆地幔软流圈向大陆的顺层流动和底辟作用。下地壳不均匀流动通过韧脆性中地壳热能-应变能转换孕育地震,部分发震能量通过上地壳脆性断层释放。在地震孕育过程中通常会伴生跨年度干旱和异常降雨,构成热灾害链。近5年内青藏高原东部连续发生汶川、玉树、芦山大地震,形成于从亚东流经羊八井、安多、玉树并分支流向汶川和芦山—康定的下地壳"热河"的仰冲式和侧冲式撞击作用。从2008年9月以来连续发表5篇论文,根据地壳热构造和热灾害链的时空结构对芦山地震的三要素进行了长期和中期预测。2008年9月预测从2013年开始可能发生大地震,2012年9月将鲜水河—安宁河—小江异常热流构造带5年内将发生多个7级地震的首个大震锁定在芦山或西昌。芦山地震只释放了亚东—羊八井—安多—玉树—鲜水河—安宁河—小江"热河"剩余热能中的一小部分,在西昌—会理—昭通地区、道孚—康定地区、通海—石屏地区近5年内很可能发生4个7级左右的地震。此外,华北典型的热灾害链结构表明震情严峻,环渤海地区近3年内很可能发生大地震。从地震热流体撞击机理与地震异常之间的关联性出发,提出了动态立体监测及短临预测地震的思路和方法。     

从苏门答腊-安达曼到日本东北:特大地震及其引发的超级海啸的启示

2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼MW9.1地震及印度洋超级海啸,以及2011年日本东北MW9.0地震及海啸与核泄漏,给人类带来了巨大的灾难。这两次灾难的接连发生充分暴露了迄今我们对于地震发生规律的认识水平还是很低的,启示我们需要继续加强对地震发生的规律性与地震预测预报的研究。在地震危险性评估中,要努力克服经验性方法的局限性,加强地应力测量以确定断层接近破裂的程度,更直接地估计地震危险性;要最大限度地运用地震、大地测量、地质、地貌等所有可资利用的资料,尽快将学术研究成果应用于防灾减灾实践。要重视不同观测资料的整合集成。要加强学科与学科之间的交叉渗透,自然科学与社会科学之间的合作交流,以及科学界与决策者和社会公众的相互沟通。要加强在海域对地震、海啸的多学科、多手段的监测工作,加强地震破裂过程复杂性的理论与应用研究,提高对地震、海啸(包括局地海啸)的监测、预测预报与预警水平。     

海原断裂干盐池探槽揭示非特征性古地震序列

海原断裂是青藏高原东北缘一条重要的陆内活动左旋走滑断裂,于1920年发生过里氏8?级特大地震,形成约230km的地表破裂带和高达10.2m的同震左旋位移。该断裂的大地震复发行为特征一直是地震地质学家关注的重点,然而现有的认识需要更多以精细沉积地层约束的古地震数据的验证。基于此,在海原断裂中段干盐池盆地成功开挖了数个大型三维探槽,揭露了清晰的韵律性、面状展布地层和丰富的古地震事件证据。在探槽上部2.5m厚的最新细粒沉积层序记录了AD 1500以来的3次地震事件。基于地层中~(14)C样品的结果和历史地震史料的考证,限定这3次地震事件分别对应于AD 1920年、AD 1760年(或1709年)和AD 1638年的地震,但其震级差别很大。除了最新一次地震,即1920年海原大地震的震级为8?级,其他2次地震事件的震级较小,均小于7级,说明海原断裂上伴生有地表破裂的地震不全是特征型地震事件。结果表明,古地震探槽中揭示的地震强度不一定相同,而且中等震级地震也可以产生地表破裂,其地层证据在合适的条件下,如无沉积间断、沉积速率大等环境能在地层中得到保存。     

High precision slip distribution of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake inferred from tsunami waveforms: Possible slip on a splay fault

Inversion of tsunami waveforms is a well-established technique for estimating the slip distributions of subduction zone earthquakes, with some of the most detailed results having been obtained for earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, SW Japan. The present study, although it uses a method and tsunami waveform data set almost identical to previous study, aims to improve on previous work by using a more precise specification of initial conditions for the calculation of tsunami Green's functions. Specifically, we incorporated four improvements in the present study: (1) we used a realistic plate model based only on seismic survey results, and assumed it to be the fault plane of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake; (2) the smallest subfaults consistent with the long wavelength approximation were used in the tsunami inversion analysis; (3) we included the effect of horizontal displacement of the ocean bottom on tsunami generation; and (4) we performed a checkerboard resolution test. As obtained in previous studies, a zone of high slip (> 2.0 m) was resolved off the Shima Peninsula. However, the more precise calculation of tsunami Green's functions has revealed additional detail that was not evident in previous studies, which we demonstrate is resolvable and correlates with the position of known faults in the accretionary prism. While there was little or no slip near the trench axis in the eastern part of the rupture zone, there was up to 1.5 m of slip resolved within 30 km of the trough axis in the western part, along the coast of the Kii Peninsula. This troughward slip zone coincides with the position of a large splay fault mapped in multichannel reflection surveys. Furthermore, it is also clear that the upper edge of the Enshu fault off Shima and Atsumi peninsulas is consistent with the up-dip limit of slip in the eastern part of our model. We tested the possibility that slip occurred on the former splay fault instead of on the plate interface during the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, and find that slip on this splay fault is also consistent with the data, although we cannot distinguish whether slip was dominant on the splay fault or on the plate interface. We further suggest that the position of the Enshu fault may be determined by the subduction of topographic highs, and that such faults may have an important influence on the up-dip rupture limit of the 1944 Tonankai and, potentially, other subduction zone earthquakes.     

2021年5月21日漾濞MS6.4地震的发震断层及其破裂特征: 地震序列的重定位分析结果

据中国地震台网测定，2021年5月21日21时48分在云南省大理州漾濞县发生M_S6.4地震，及时查明此次地震的发震构造及震源破裂特征，可为认识该区孕震条件和判别未来强震危险性提供关键依据。采用双差定位方法对漾濞地震序列进行重新定位，得到3863次地震事件的精确震源位置。结果显示:漾濞地震序列整体呈北西—南东向分布，长约25 km；整体走向135°；M_S6.4主震震中位置为25.688°N，99.877°E；震源深度约9.6 km。综合地震序列深度剖面和震源机制解结果可知，发震断层应为北西走向、整体向西南方向陡倾的右旋走滑断层，倾角具有自北西向南东逐渐变缓的趋势。进一步分析地震序列的时空演化过程发现，该地震具有典型的"前震-主震-余震型"地震序列活动特点，其破裂过程主要包括3个阶段。破裂成核阶段:首先在发震断层10~12 km深度处相对脆弱部位产生小尺度破裂，之后失稳加速破裂，发生M_S5.6地震；主震破裂阶段:在构造应力场持续加载和周围小尺度破裂的共同影响下，促使浅部较高强度断层闭锁区破裂，形成M_S6.4主震；尾端拉张破裂阶段:主震破裂向东南扩展过程中，在东南端形成与之呈马尾状斜交的、具有正断性质的次级破裂，并产生M_S5.2余震。而且此次地震还在源区北东侧触发了北北东向的左旋走滑破裂。综合分析认为，漾濞地震是兰坪-思茅地块内部北西向草坪断裂在近南北向区域应力挤压作用下发生右旋走滑运动的结果，具有明显的新生断裂特征。近年来兰坪-思茅地块内部一系列中强地震的发生表明，青藏高原物质向东南持续挤出的过程中，遇到该地块的阻挡，正在导致地块内部早期断层贯通形成新的活动断裂。因此，川滇地块西南边界带上或相邻地块内部老断层的复活和新生断裂的产生是区域中强地震危险性分析评价中值得关注的重要课题，同时建议需重视未来该区中强地震进一步向东南和向北的迁移或扩展的可能性。      

滇西南2014年景谷中-强震群的地质构造成因——茶房-普文断裂带贯通过程的构造响应

2014年10—12月期间,云南景谷接连发生了Ms6.6、Ms5.8、Ms5.9三次中-强地震。为确定地震的地质构造成因,在地表调查的基础上,综合该区的地质构造情况、烈度与余震分布、震源机制解等资料,确定此次震群活动的宏观震中位于永平盆地东南侧山地,发震断层为地质与地貌表现不显著的NW向右旋走滑断层。此次震群活动及余震迁移过程指示,由于断层斜接部位岩桥的临时阻碍,Ms6.6地震破裂在向南东扩展过程中发生短暂停滞,突破障碍后进一步引发了Ms5.8和Ms5.9地震,这符合震源破裂沿NW向发震断裂分段破裂的行为。区域活动断裂的遥感解译结果发现,发震断层位置恰好处于NW向右旋走滑的茶房断裂与普文断裂之间,区域上属于该断裂带的不连贯部位,指示此次中-强震群活动应该是茶房-普文断裂带贯通过程的构造活动表现。结合思茅地块的历史地震资料发现,思茅地块地震活动多以小于等于6.8级为主,发震构造多为NW向断裂。指示在现今构造应力场作用下,该区NW向断裂的活动性相对NE向断裂更加显著,属于该区主要控震构造,应在今后的地震地质工作中给予更多关注。     

Fracture-zone conditions on a recently active fault: insights from mineralogical and geochemical analyses of the Hirabayashi NIED drill core on the Nojima fault, southwest Japan, which ruptured in the 1995 Kobe earthquake

An 1800-m-deep borehole into the Nojima fault zone was drilled at Nojima-Hirabayashi, Japan, after the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake. Three possible fracture zones were detected at depths of about 1140, 1300, and 1800 m. To assess these fracture zones in this recently active fault, we analyzed the distributions of fault rocks, minerals, and chemical elements in these zones. The central fault plane in the shallowest fracture zone was identified by foliated blue-gray gouge at a depth of 1140 m. The degree of fracturing was evidently greater in the hanging wall than in the footwall. Minerals detected in this zone were quartz, orthoclase, plagioclase, and biotite, as in the parent rock (granodiorite), and also kaolinite, smectite, laumontite, stilbite, calcite, ankerite, and siderite, which are related to hydrothermal alteration. Biotite was absent in both the hanging wall and footwall across the central fault plane, but it was absent over a greater distance from the central fault plane in the hanging wall than in the footwall. Major element compositions across this zone suggested that hydrothermal alteration minerals such as kaolinite and smectite occurred across the central fault plane for a greater distance in the hanging wall than in the footwall. Similarly, H₂O+ and CO₂ had higher concentrations in the hanging wall than in the footwall. This asymmetrical distribution pattern is probably due to the greater degree of wall–rock fracturing and associated alteration in the hanging wall. We attributed the characteristics of this zone to fault activity and fluid–rock interactions. We analyzed the other fracture zones along this fault in the same way. In the fracture zone at about 1300 m depth, we detected the same kinds of hydrothermal alteration minerals as in the shallower zone, but they were in fewer samples. We detected relatively little H₂O+ and CO₂, and little evidence for movement of the major chemical elements, indicating little past fluid–rock interaction. In the fracture zone at about 1800 m depth, H₂O+ and CO₂ were very enriched throughout the interval, as in the fracture zone at about 1140 m depth. However, smectite was absent and chlorite was present, indicating the occurrence of chloritization, which requires a temperature of more than 200 °C. Only smectite can form under the present conditions in these fracture zones. The chloritization probably occurred in the past when the fracture zone was deeper than it is now. These observations suggest that among the three fracture zones, that at about 1140 m depth was the most activated at the time of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Tectonics and crustal structures related to Bhuj earthquake of January 26, 2001: based on gravity and magnetic surveys constrained from seismic and seismological studies

Gravity and magnetic data of the Kachchh basin and surrounding regions have delineated major E–W and NW–SE oriented lineaments and faults, which are even extending up to plate boundaries in the north Arabian Sea and western boundary of the Indian plate, respectively. The epicentral zone of Bhuj earthquake and its aftershocks is located over the junction of Rann of Kachchh and median uplifts viz. Kachchh mainland and Wagad uplifts, which are separated by thrust faults. Gravity data with constraints from the results of the seismic studies along a profile suggest that the basement is uplifted towards the north along thrust faults dipping 40–60° south. Similarly gravity and magnetic modeling along a profile across Wagad uplift suggest south dipping (50–60°) basement contacts separating rocks of high susceptibility and density towards the north. One of these contacts coincides with the fault plane of the Bhuj earthquake as inferred from seismological studies and its projection on the surface coincides with the E–W oriented north Wagad thrust fault. A circular gravity high in contact with the fault in northern part of the Wagad uplift along with high amplitude magnetic anomaly suggests plug type mafic intrusive in this region. Several such gravity anomalies are observed over the island belt in the Rann of Kachchh indicating their association with mafic intrusions. The contact of these intrusives with the country rock demarcates shallow crustal inhomogeneities, which provides excellent sites for the accumulation of regional stress. A regional gravity anomaly map based on the concept of isostasy presents two centers of gravity lows of −11 to −13 mGal (10⁻⁵ m/s²) representing mass deficiency in the epicentral region. Their best-fit model constrained from the receiver function analysis and seismic refraction studies suggest crustal root of 7–8 km (deep crustal inhomogeneity) under them for a standard density contrast of −400 kg/m³. It is, therefore, suggested that significant amount of stress get concentrated in this region due to (a) buoyant crustal root, (b) regional stress due to plate tectonic forces, and (c) mafic intrusives as stress concentrators and the same might be responsible for the frequent and large magnitude earthquakes in this region including the Bhuj earthquake of January 26, 2001.