２种降尺度方法在太湖流域的应用对比

同时应用统计降尺度模型SDSM(Statistical Downscaling Model)和区域气候模式PRECIS(Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies),对太湖流域的日降水量和日最高、最低气温进行降尺度处理,建立未来2021-2050年的气候变化情景,并对比分析两种方法的适用性.结果表明,两种方法模拟的未来时期日最高、最低气温季节和年的变化情景增幅总体上比较一致,高排放情景A2下模拟生成的情景增温幅度较B2情景大,未来时期最高气温增加幅度比最低气温明显.两种方法模拟的降水变化情景差异明显,PRECIS模拟的2021-2050年降水增加趋势明显,增幅较大;而SDSM模拟的未来时期降水存在一定的减少趋势,变化幅度相对较小.以上结果说明PRECIS和SDSM都能较好地模拟太湖流域未来气温变化情景,而对未来降水的模拟不确定性较大.     

白洋淀流域未来日最高最低气温变化的统计降尺度分析

大气环流模型（GCMs）预测的气候变化情景空间分辨率低,不能满足气候变化对水资源影响进行评估的需要.利用统计降尺度模型可以解决GCMs预测的气候变化情景空间分辨率低的缺陷.在白洋淀流域应用统计降尺度模型（SDSM）,选取日平均气温作为预报量,根据NCEP再分析数据与站点实测数据序列的相关关系选择合适的预报因子,建立大气环流因子与各站点日最高气温和最低气温之间的统计关系.将数据序列分为1961-1975年和1976-1990年两个时段,对SDSM进行率定和验证.最后将HadCM3输出的未来情景降尺度到站点尺度,模拟白洋淀流域未来时期三个时段2020s（2010-2039年）、2050s（2040-2069年）和2080s（2070-2099年）的日最高气温和最低气温时间序列.结果表明：SDSM在白洋淀流域的模拟效果较好.白洋淀流域日最高气温和最低气温在A2和B2两种情景下均呈现上升趋势,且A2情景下的增幅高于B2情景,山区的增幅高于平原,日最高气温的增幅大于日最低气温.     

气候变化背景下黄河流域径流变化情势分析

依据实测资料和利用古树年轮等资料重建兰州站数百年径流量系列,采用周期叠加外延和分布式水文模型模拟等方法,分析了近期黄河中游降水特点,预测了河源区未来气温、降水量和径流量的变化情势.结果表明,20世纪70-90年代,黄河中游地区年均降水量低于多年平均值,而近8 a(2000-2007年)则略高于多年均值.黄河源区唐乃亥以上区域,21世纪20年代、50年代和80年代日最高气温将在基准期基础上分别升高1.34～1.41 ℃、2.42～2.60 ℃和3.44～3.90 ℃,日最低气温则分别升高0.87～1.49 ℃、1.49～2.68 ℃和2.27～3.76 ℃;未来3个时期的降水量表现出一定的增加趋势,但是增幅不显著,分别比基准期增加3.47%、6.42%和8.67%.无论对于哪种情景,黄河源区在未来若干年内将可能出现持续增温趋势,而降水量变化幅度相对较小,这很可能导致未来水资源的紧张趋势进一步加剧.     

21世纪黄河流域上中游地区气候变化趋势分析

气候变化预估常用的全球气候模式（GCM）难以提供区域或更小尺度上可靠的逐日气候要素序列,针对这一问题,应用统计降尺度模型（statistical downscaling model,SDSM）将HadCM3的模拟数据（包括A2、B2两种情景）处理为具有较高可信度的逐日站点序列。以1961-1990年为基准期,分析了21世纪黄河流域上中游地区未来最高气温、最低气温与年降水量的变化。在A2、B2两种气候变化情景下,日最高气温、日最低气温均呈升高趋势;但A2的变化较显著,日最高气温的升高趋势在景泰站最明显,日最低气温的升高趋势在河曲站最显著。流域平均的年降水量变化范围为-18.2%～13.3%。A2情景下降水量增加和减少的面积基本相等,宝鸡站降水量增加最多;B2情景下大部分区域降水减少,西峰镇降水量减少最显著。     

21世纪黄河流域上中游地区气候变化趋势分析

 气候变化预估常用的全球气候模式（GCM）难以提供区域或更小尺度上可靠的逐日气候要素序列,针对这一问题,应用统计降尺度模型（statistical downscaling model,SDSM）将HadCM3的模拟数据（包括A2、B2两种情景）处理为具有较高可信度的逐日站点序列。以1961-1990年为基准期,分析了21世纪黄河流域上中游地区未来最高气温、最低气温与年降水量的变化。在A2、B2两种气候变化情景下,日最高气温、日最低气温均呈升高趋势;但A2的变化较显著,日最高气温的升高趋势在景泰站最明显,日最低气温的升高趋势在河曲站最显著。流域平均的年降水量变化范围为-18.2%～13.3%。A2情景下降水量增加和减少的面积基本相等,宝鸡站降水量增加最多;B2情景下大部分区域降水减少,西峰镇降水量减少最显著。     

黄河源区未来地面气温变化的统计降尺度分析

大气环流模式(GCMs)模拟预测的气候变化情景,必须经过降尺度处理后才能得出次网格尺度上未来气候变化的时空分布细节,才能满足评估气候变化对资源、环境和社会经济等影响的需要.本文在简单介绍了目前降尺度模型的研究现状后,重点分析了统计降尺度方法的优缺点及适用性,并应用黄河源区7个站点1961-1990年的实测地区最高气温和最低气温资料,对统计降尺度模型(SDSM)的应用进行了分析和验证.首先利用SDSM建立大尺度气候要素和地面气温变量间的统计转换关系,确定模型应用的预报因子变量,然后用独立的观测资料验证模型的可靠性,最后把建立好的统计关系应用于英国Hadley中心海气耦合模式(HadCM3 SERS B2)的输出,分别生成了黄河源区7个站点未来3个时段2020s,2050s和2080s的气温变化情景.在此基础上,应用Arc/GIS的Kriging插值方法获得整个区域的气温变化情景进行分析.结果表明,日最高气温模拟值随时间推移增幅很快,3个时段(2020s,2050s和2080s)的平均气温变化情景分别为1.34,2.60和3.90℃,而日最低气温变化相对不明显,3个时段的平均气温变化情景分别为0.87,1.49和2.27℃.表现在每个季节和每个月的变化情景又各不相同,日最高气温以春季和秋季变化最显著,而日最低气温则以夏季和秋季的变化最为明显.     

辽宁省新旧气候平均值变化及影响分析

根据辽宁省61个气象站1961—2020年逐日气温和降水量数据,对比分析1991—2020年和1981—2010年新旧气候平均值变化及对辽宁省气候业务的影响。结果表明：1—11月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均升高;10—12月降水量增幅最大。年及四季平均气温、平均最高和最低气温均升高,增幅自东部和西部山区向中部平原地区增大,中部区域增幅最为显著;平均气温和平均最高气温均以春季增幅最大,平均最低气温夏季增幅最大。年、夏季和秋季降水量减少,春季和冬季增加;7—8月降水量总体减少,东部山区和大连沿海地区降水量增加;7月下旬—8月上旬降水量增加,辽宁西部和南部地区增幅最大,为5%～6%,北部地区增幅最小。气候平均值改变后,四季平均气温及降水量评价等级均发生了变化。     

1961-2009年三江源地区气候变化特征分析

利用三江源地区18个气象台站1961—2009年气温、年最高气温、年最低气温、降水量、降水日数等资料,分析了该地区年最高气温、年最低气温、降水量、降水日数等气候要素的变化趋势。研究表明:近49年来三江源年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均在升高,升高速率平均最低气温明显大于平均气温和平均最高气温,年平均气温的升高主要是由最低平均气温升高引起的;三江源年和四季降水量均呈增多趋势,冬、春季降水量增幅最明显,年降水量变化的空间分布北部增多而东南部减少,年降水量除20世纪70年代—21世纪初均呈增加趋势;年和冬、春季≥0.1mm降水日数增加,而夏秋季降水日数减少;年和冬、夏、秋季潜在蒸散量呈显著性增加趋势,春季变化则不明显;年和四季平均风速均呈显著下降趋势;年和四季日照时数变化不显著。     

1981—2016年河南省冬小麦产量对气象因素变化的响应

基于河南省19812016年18个农业气象观测站的冬小麦观测资料及气象资料,采用一元线性回归法、偏相关分析法和多元线性回归模拟等,分析河南省冬小麦生长发育和产量对气候变化的响应。结果表明：河南省冬小麦出苗返青期和开花成熟期延长,返青开花期缩短,全生育期缩短。全生育期内最高气温和最低气温呈升高趋势,降水量变化不明显,太阳辐射呈减少趋势,不同生长阶段内各气象要素变化趋势不一致。最高气温与小麦气象产量为负相关关系,最低气温、太阳辐射与小麦气象产量为正相关关系,降水量与不同区域的小麦气象产量相关关系不同。小麦相对气象产量与各气象要素敏感性分析结果表明：不同生长阶段小麦相对气象产量对各气象要素变化的敏感性不同;小麦生长时期内最高气温升高1 ℃,相对气象产量减少约16.00%;最低气温升高1 ℃,相对气象产量增加约17.00%;降水量减少10.00%,相对气象产量增加约0.35%;太阳辐射减少10.00%,相对气象产量减少约1.70%。     

黑河流域气候变化对生态环境与自然植被影响的诊断分析

在对西北地区已往的研究基础上,运用数理统计方法,分析研究了黑河流域的气候变化及其对水资源和植被的影响.在自然植被变化中,气候因素自始至终都在起作用,下游地区沙漠化的不断发展是自然因素与人为因素综合作用的结果,但以人为因素为主.用假设的气候变化,即温度升高2℃与降水量保持不变和增加10%两种情况组合计算湿润(或干燥)指数的变化来预测未来气候变化的可能影响.未来气温升高2℃,而降水量不变,河西地区干燥度将增加O.5～1.1,且越是干燥的地方,干燥度增加越大;未来气温升高2℃,而同时降水量增加10%,干燥度则基本保持不变,即降水量增加可大致抵消由气温升高而增加的蒸发量.       

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.