The Development and Application of a Flood Risk Model for the Czech Republic

A flood risk model was developed for the Czech Republic to calculate the probability of insured losses from flood events. The model was GIS based, making use of a 100 m horizontal resolution DTM and a network of the major rivers in the country. A review of historical flooding was undertaken to define the worst and most widespread flood events. Synthetic flood events were generated based on a study of the spatial variation in magnitude of river flows from selected historical flood events going back to 1935. A total of 30 synthetic events were generated each providing peak flows at 25 gauging stations throughout the country. The flows were converted into flood levels using rating equations based on information provided by the Czech Hydrological and Meteorological Institute. The extent of and depth of flooding was mapped on a cell by cell basis by applying an automated procedure developed using the grid option within the Arc/Info GIS. The flood depths were combined with maps of the postal codes to define an average flood depth per post code. The model was calibrated using maps of the observed flood extents from 1997 and 2002.     

Summer Floods in Central Europe – Climate Change Track?

In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings.     

Mortality of game mammals caused by an extreme flooding event in south-western Poland

We examine mortality in five terrestrial species of game animals resulting from an extreme flood event in Central Europe in July 1997. We present species-specific mortality rates and collate them with local abundances to show the susceptibilities of the different species to flood mortality. We also compare mortality rates in areas inundated by the main river and by its tributaries. Data were collected in the catchment area of the Odra River, south-western Poland. Mortality was estimated by surveying for drowned animals in flooded areas of 50 hunting districts (2,876 km²). Total mortality amounted to 3,613 individuals, mostly of roe deer Capreolus capreolus and brown hare Lepus europaeus. Relative to estimates of abundance, mortality was disproportionately high in hares. Drownings of roe deer and wild boar, Sus scrofa were proportional to local abundance. Young individuals were particularly affected. Mortality was low in foxes, Vulpes vulpes, and red deer, Cervus elaphus. The mortality rate increased with the proportion of area flooded and the duration of flooding and was four times higher along the Odra River than along its tributaries. Our data specify, for the first time, direct losses in wild, large animals in response to an extreme flood event. Despite high overall losses, negative long-term effects on populations seemed unlikely. Nevertheless, to lessen the impact, river management focused primarily on human safety should also integrate the needs of wildlife.     

Rapid migration of heavy metals and <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs in alluvial sediments,Upper Odra River valley,Poland

The studies presented explore post-depositional changes of zinc, cadmium, lead, manganese and ¹³⁷Cs distribution in alluvial sediments accumulated in the upper Odra River valley in southern Poland. The rate of these changes was estimated by comparing metal and ¹³⁷Cs distributions in four vertical alluvial profiles with a history of river pollution and sediment deposition. The untypical ¹³⁷Cs distribution with peaks in the surface 40–60 cm and lower down, even at a depth of 2.5 m in strata deposited before the beginning of nuclear tests in 1954, indicates rapid post-depositional migration of this isotope from the surface and its retention in lower, less permeable layers. Moreover, the highest concentrations of lead, zinc and cadmium were found at a depth of 4 m in sediments accumulated in the mid-nineteenth century in spite of the growth of industrialization and the pollution of the Odra River with heavy metals until the end of the twentieth century. The post-depositional changes in heavy metals and ¹³⁷Cs are rapid in comparison with the slow element migration usually observed in uninundated soils. This difference is explained by the frequent and easy infiltration of polluted river water into the gravelly and sandy sediments present in the profiles.     

Groundwater resources of the middle and upper Odra River basin, southwestern Poland

 The total amount of groundwater resources in the middle and upper Odra River basin is 5200×10³ m³/d, or about 7.7% of the disposable groundwater resources of Poland. The average modulus of groundwater resources is about 1.4 L/s/km². Of the 180 'Major Groundwater Basins' (MGWB) in Poland, 43 are partly or totally located within the study area. The MGWB in southwestern Poland have an average modulus of groundwater resources about 2.28 L/s/km² and thus have abundant water resources in comparison to MGWB from other parts of the country. Several types of mineral waters occur in the middle and upper Odra River basin. These waters are concentrated especially in the Sudety Mountains. Carbon-dioxide waters, with yields of 414 m³/h, are the most widespread of Sudetic mineral waters. The fresh waters of the crystalline basement have a low mineralization, commonly less than 100 mg/L; they are a HCO₃–Ca–Mg or SO₄–Ca–Mg type of water. Various hydrochemical compositions characterize the groundwater in sedimentary rocks. The shallow aquifers are under risk of atmospheric pollution and anthropogenic effects. To prevent the degradation of groundwater resources in the middle and upper Odra River basin, Critical Protection Areas have been designated within the MGWB. Received, January 1995 Revised, May 1996, August 1997 Accepted, August 1997     

Mercury distribution and transport in a contaminated river system in Kazakhstan and associated impacts on aquatic biota

The River Nura in Central Kazakhstan has been heavily polluted by Hg originating from an acetaldehyde plant. A number of studies were undertaken to investigate the transport, fate and bioavailability of Hg in this river system. The sediments within a 20 km section of the river downstream of the effluent outfall canal are highly polluted and are acting as a strong source of surface water contamination. Mercury transport in the river is dominated by the remobilization of contaminated bed sediments and river bank erosion during the annual spring flood. Peak Hg concentrations in unfiltered surface water samples during a larger than usual flood event in 2004 were in the order of 1600–4300 ng L⁻¹. The majority of the particulate-bound Hg appears to be sedimented in the shallow Intumak reservoir 75 km downstream of the source of the pollution, leading to a drop in aqueous Hg concentrations by an order of magnitude. Nevertheless, background concentrations of Hg in surface water are not reached until at least 200 km downstream, and during the flood period Hg is also detected in the terminal wetlands of the river.Mercury concentrations in sediment cores taken from the river bed in the most contaminated section of the Nura ranged from 9.95 to 306 mg kg⁻¹. Methylmercury (MeHg) levels in shallow sediment cores were highest in surface sediments and ranged between 4.9 and 39 μg kg⁻¹, but were generally less than 0.1% of total Hg (THg). A significant inverse relationship was found between THg concentrations and the percentage of MeHg formed in the sediments, irrespective of the sampling depth. The observed relationship was confirmed by comparison with results from a different river system, indicating that it may be true also for other highly contaminated aquatic systems. It is hypothesized that at high THg levels in severely contaminated sediments, the accumulation of MeHg may be limited by increasingly efficient demethylation processes, and that this underlying trend in sediments is the reason why MeHg levels in surface water are often found to be higher at less contaminated sites compared to upstream sites.Mercury concentrations in biota in the most contaminated section of the river were 15–20 times higher than background levels. Fish were found to be impacted for more than 125 km downstream from the source, indicating significant transport of dissolved MeHg to downstream areas and/or in-situ MeHg production in less contaminated downstream reaches. There were also indications that impoundments may increase the bioavailability of Hg.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

复杂防洪系统联合优化调度模型

建立以水库群系统安全度最大、行蓄洪区系统损失最小为目标函数,将河道堤防安全行洪考虑为约束条件的复杂防洪系统多目标递阶优化调度模型(MoHOOM),以行蓄洪区总分洪流量为协调变量,将河道水流连续方程解耦,基于大系统分解协调法建立协调层和基于粒子群算法求解底层子系统优化问题,形成三级递阶分解协调结构和相应求解方法。以淮河中游防洪系统为背景进行了实例研究,给出了水库群泄流和行蓄洪区分洪最优方案,在相同初始计算条件下,优化模型结果比实际调度降低了鲇鱼山和梅山水库0.37和0.01的安全度指标,减小下游蒋家集和润河集河段超过安全泄量以上100 m3/s和720 m3/s的洪峰流量,启用南润段行洪区致损1 256.1万元;比规则调度降低了鲇鱼山和梅山水库0.24和0.21的安全度指标,减小下游蒋家集河段超过安全泄量以上750 m3/s的洪峰流量,避免南润段行洪区损失341.6万元。模型有利于挖掘上游水库群的防洪能力,在保障河道堤防安全行洪条件下,减少下游不必要的行蓄洪区分洪损失,以系统全局寻优方式进行复杂防洪系统联合调度。     

Analysis of the relationship between the stream regulations and the geomorphologic effects of floods

This article presents the results of analysis of relationships between stream regulations and the geomorphic effects of floods for the case of the Blanice river basin in the Czech Republic, which was at the center of an extreme flooding event that impacted Central Europe in August 2002. The assessment is based on a geostatistical analysis of data on the distribution of flood effects and stream modifications acquired by field survey and completed by historical maps and digital cartography. Using the cluster analysis and regression tree classification, relationships between the occurrence of erosion and deposition forms, and the parameters of stream modification and general physiography were tested. The results indicate a limited relationship between stream modifications and the occurrence of geomorphic effects of the flood. The cluster analysis detected different sets of parameters linked to erosion and accumulation. The accumulation was related to physiographic properties of stream, while erosion was related to the presence of weirs in the stream segment. The regression tree classification demonstrates the potentially critical combinations of stream modifications related to the occurrence of flood effects.     

Trends and evolution of contamination in a well-dated water reservoir sedimentary archive: the Brno Dam, Moravia, Czech Republic

The sedimentary record from dams can provide important information about stratigraphy and pollution history of densely populated river basins. The Brno Dam is a small reservoir within the Morava River catchment (Czech Republic) accumulating lacustrine sediments since 1940 (dam filling). The stratigraphy of the dam sediments was studied using multiproxy stratigraphic analysis (X-ray densitometry, bulk magnetic susceptibility, diffuse spectral reflectance and cation-exchange capacity) of five sediment cores supported by ground-penetration radar sections. Concentrations of heavy metals were studied by X-ray fluorescence analysis. The thickness of the dam sediments decreases from 220 cm in the proximal part, near the feeder, to only 10 cm in the distal part, near the dyke. Sediments consist predominantly of finely-laminated silty sands, silts and clays. The sedimentation rate for the last ~22 years, inferred from ¹³⁷Cs dating, decreases from 4.2 cm per year in the proximal part of the dam to 0.29 cm per year in its distal part. Distinct long-term trends were found in the depth profiles of heavy metal concentrations. The heavy metal contents increase significantly after 1940 in all cores, with peak concentrations confined to layers deposited in the 1960s and 1980s. A decreasing trend occurred after 1989 (the decline in Czech heavy industry). The results also show that heavy metal contamination is dependent on lithology (hyperpycnal flow layers related to floods). Increased concentrations of phosphorus in the sediments indicate long-term eutrophication of the dam. Despite the recent decreasing trends in heavy metal concentrations the phosphorus contents remain high in recent years and have caused persisting problems with algal growth in the dam mentioned by previous authors.     

Late Glacial and Holocene depositional history in the eastern part of the Szczecin Lagoon (Great Lagoon) basin—NW Poland

Analyses on 27 sediment cores taken from the bottom of the Szczecin Lagoon allowed environmental reconstruction of the postglacial main stages of basin development, based on detailed sedimentological, geochemical, diatomological and malacological studies of selected key cores. Studies revealed that during the Late Glacial and Holocene this area developed in several stages. In the Late Glacial the whole study area constituted a low alluvial plain. At the turn from Younger Dryas to Holocene the alluvial plain was cut through by the Odra river to a level of 10–11 m below sea level (b.s.l.). Along with the first phases of the Holocene marine transgression at the southern Baltic Sea's coasts the accumulation of the limnic-swampy deposits began in this lower part of the Odra valley. At ca. 6–6.5 ka BP the transgression proceeded and Littorina Sea waters flooded the area. At that time the Szczecin Lagoon constituted a marine embayment in which series of sands, partly rich in malacofauna, was deposited. The development of the Swina barrier resulted in the isolation of the embayment from the direct inflow of Baltic Sea waters.     

河道洪水反流向演算过程迭代方法

在流域防洪调度中需要考虑河槽的调蓄作用,河道洪水反流向演算可以简化河库联合调度模型的求解;马斯京根法是河道洪水演算的常用方法,但不能直接用于解决洪水反流向演算问题;提出了马斯京根法和迭代试算相结合的过程迭代算法;实例表明方法是实用有效的。     

The Holocene expansion of grassland in northern Europe reconstructed from molluscan assemblages

From the synthesis of the malacological data collected from 12 sites in the large flood‐plain of the Seine basin, three main environmental stages have been reconstructed. During the first half of the Holocene, forest environments are prevalent (Seine 1). As early as c. 6.5 cal. ka BP, the first evidence of woodland clearance is observed (Seine 2) and, from c. 3.4 cal. ka BP, the lowlands were largely cleared of trees and are dominated by grassland (Seine 3). This three‐stage development of environmental conditions is consistent with the environmental developments reconstructed from molluscan successions in England, Germany, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Our results highlight anthropogenic disturbance as the key factor in the openness of the Holocene landscape and pinpoint the period between c. 3.6 and c. 2.8 cal. ka BP as a transitional phase of this large‐scale environmental change.     

A real-time operation optimization model for flood management in river-reservoir systems

In this paper, a new methodology has been developed for real-time flood management in river-reservoir systems. This methodology is based upon combining a Genetic Algorithm (GA) reservoir operation optimization model for a cascade of two reservoirs, a hydraulic-based flood routing simulation model in downstream river system, a Geographical Information System (GIS) based database, and application of K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN) algorithm for development of optimal operating rules. The GA optimization model estimates the optimal hourly reservoirs’ releases to minimize the flood damages in the downstream river. GIS tools have also been used for specifying different land-uses and damage functions in the downstream floodplain and it has been linked to the unsteady module of HEC-RAS flood routing model using Hec-GeoRAS module. An innovative approach has also been developed using K-NN algorithm to formulate the optimal operating rules for a system of two cascade reservoirs based on optimal releases obtained from the optimization model. During a flood event, the K-NN algorithm searches through the historical flood hydrographs and optimal reservoir storages determined by the optimization model to find similar situations. The similarity between the hydrographs is quantified based on the slopes of rising and falling limbs of inflow hydrographs and reservoir storages at the beginning of each hourly time step during the flood events for two cascade reservoirs. The developed methodology have been applied to the Bakhtiari and Dez River-Reservoir systems in southwest of Iran. The results show that the proposed models can be effectively used for flood management and real-time operation of cascade river-reservoir systems.     

Chosen aspects of sustainable development on the Polish, Czech and German borderland

The shift to market forces in Poland, East Germany and Czech Republic has fundamentally reconfigured its economic geography. In particular, spatial inequalities between neighboring Polish, Czech and German border regions have re-emerged forcefully in response to new values, expectations and preferences. In this paper the example of coal mines illustrates the potency of spatial planning. The abundance of coal mines in the Polish, Czech and German borderland at or near abandonment and their proximity to ecological corridors make them candidates for renewed uses in industry or conservation. Attention will also be given to the main environmental problems caused by wrongly conducted spatial policy on this borderland. Transforming a landscape requires continuation of guidance and financial assistance of the European Union.     

Spatial distribution of lead and lead isotopes in soil B-horizon, forest-floor humus, grass (Avenella flexuosa) and spruce (Picea abies) needles across the Czech Republic

Lead concentrations were determined in samples of soil B-horizon (N = 258), forest-floor humus (O-horizon, N = 259), grass (Avenella flexuosa, N = 251) and spruce (Picea abies, N = 253) needles (2nd year) collected at the same locations evenly spread over the territory of the Czech Republic at an average density of 1 site/300 km². Median Pb concentrations differ widely in the four materials: soil B-horizon: 27 mg/kg (3.3-220 mg/kg), humus: 78 mg/kg (19-1863 mg/kg), grass: 0.37 mg/kg (0.08-8 mg/kg) and spruce needles: 0.23 mg/kg (0.07-3 mg/kg). In the Pb distribution maps for humus, grass and spruce a number of well-known Pb-contamination sources are indicated by unusually high concentrations (e.g., the Pb smelter at Pribram, the metallurgical industry in the NE of the Czech Republic and along the Polish border, as well as the metallurgical industry in Upper Silesia and Europe’s largest coal-fired power plant at Bogatynia, Poland). The ratio ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb was determined in all four materials. The median value of the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb isotope ratio in the soil B-horizon is 1.184 (variation: 1.145-1.337). In both humus and grass the median value for the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb isotope ratio is 1.162 (variation: 1.130-1.182), in spruce needles the median ratio is 1.159 (variation: 1.116-1.186). In humus, grass and spruce needles the known contamination sources are all marked by higher ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb isotope ratios in the maps. Furthermore, the soil B-horizon, humus, grass and spruce needles show distinctly different spatial distribution patterns of the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb isotope ratios. The B-horizon does not provide a viable background value for metal concentrations in the O-horizon or plant materials. None of the maps provides evidence for the importance of traffic-related emissions for the observed isotope ratios at the scale of the Czech Republic.     

Floodplain sediments of the 2002 catastrophic flood at the Vltava (Moldau) River and its tributaries: mineralogy,chemical composition,and post-sedimentary evolution

Fine-grained floodplain sediments of the catastrophic 2002 flood deposited along the lower reaches of the Berounka and Vltava Rivers, Czech Republic, were not highly contaminated with heavy metals and other toxic elements. This is due to the dominantly mineral character of the sediments (C_tot in the range 3.97–5.01%, relatively low content of clay minerals), and due to the very high degree of contamination dilution by eroded pre-industrial non-contaminated floodplain sediments. Despite this high degree of dilution, the influence of the small Litavka River, draining the historical Pb–Zn–Ag Příbram ore region, is well visible. The Litavka River is one of important sources of Pb and Zn contamination in the whole Berounka–Vltava–Labe river system. The 2002 flood sediments deposited in the floodplain of the Berounka and Vltava Rivers show poor vertical chemical zoning, except for some components enriched in the uppermost layer by precipitation from evaporated pore-water contained in the mud, i.e. secondary carbonate. The content of C_carb of the sediments (0.05–0.15%) is partly represented by this secondary carbonate, which is later leached by rainwater, and partly by fragments of river mollusk shells. A majority of the heavy metals contained in sediments can be readily leached by diluted acids, and to a much smaller degree by rainwater.     

秦岭山前截洪引渗与地下水库调蓄及其协同效应研究

本文分析了秦岭山前截洪引渗条件,以及涝河冲洪积扇截洪引渗方式与方案及其效果,采用数值模拟方法研究了截洪引渗与地下水库调蓄的协同效应。得出涝河冲洪积扇采取有水库、有引渗方案,实施截洪引渗工程与地下水库调蓄的联动,平水年可增补地下水0.45×108m3/a,丰水年可削减洪峰90%以上,增开状态的地下水位与泉流量仍可持续恢复。秦岭山截洪引渗条件和地下水库调蓄功能优越,实施截洪引渗工程对调节水资源时空分配不均、储蓄南水北调水量,缓解关中地区水资源供需矛盾、减轻洪灾等具有重要意义与作用。     

Consequences of dike breaches and dike overflow in a bifurcating river system

Currently, the effect of dike breaches on downstream discharge partitioning and flood risk is not addressed in flood safety assessments. In a bifurcating river system, a dike breach may cause overland flows which can change downstream flood risk and discharge partitioning. This study examines how dike breaches and overflow affect overland flow patterns and discharges of the rivers of the Rhine delta. For extreme discharges, an increase in flood risk along the river branch with the smallest discharge capacity was found, while flood risk along the other river branches was reduced. Therefore, dike breaches and resulting overland flow patterns must be included in flood safety assessments.

     

Aquatic bryophytes as bioindicators of arsenic mineralization in Polish and Czech Sudety Mountains

Concentrations of arsenic and its geochemically associated elements, Ag, Co, Cu and Ni, were measured together with Al, Ba, Cd, Fe, Mn, Pb, Sr and Zn in aquatic bryophytes. These bryophytes originated from some of the arsenic mineralization zones of the Klodzko-Zloty Stok granodiorite massif and its metamorphic envelope (Sudetes Mts., Poland) and from identical zones of the east Sudetic Rychlebske Mts. and Jesenik Mts. (Czech Republic). Concentrations of As in all examined populations were higher than background values (1 μg/g dry weight) culminating in an average maximum of 6270 μg/g in Chiloscyphus pallescens from a stream draining an area with former arsenic and gold mining near Zloty Stok.This survey has shown that aquatic bryophytes accumulate the examined elements to a high degree especially if growing in areas with mineral deposits. This was demonstrated by strong positive correlations between Ba, Sr, Zn concentrations in water and Platyhypnidium rusciforme.