The Gradual Phase of the X17 Flare on October 28, 2003

We present SOHO/CDS observations taken during the gradual phase of the X17 flare that occurred on October 28, 2003. The CDS data are supplemented with TRACE and ground-based observations. The spectral observations allow us to determine velocities from the Doppler shifts measured in the flare loops and in the two ribbon kernels, one hour and a half after the flare peak. Strong downflows (>70 km s⁻¹) are observed along the loop legs at transition-region temperatures. The velocities are close to those expected for free fall. Observations and results from a hydrodynamic simulation are consistent with the heating taking place for a short time near the top of the arcade. Slight upflows are observed in the outer edges of the ribbons (<60 km s⁻¹) in the EUV lines formed at log T < 6.3. These flows could correspond to the so-called “gentle evaporation.” At “flare” temperatures (Fe xix, log T = 6.9), no appreciable flows are observed. The observations are consistent with the general standard reconnection models for two-ribbons flares.     

The Electron Energy Spectrum from Large Solar Flares

We report on the differential electron spectrum for intense transient events seen at one AU by the EPAM instrument on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Over an observing period from September 1997 to September 2005, there were 45 major events that could be reliably identified with a source flare on the Sun. In the ∼40 – 300 keV energy range, the electron spectral index was between one and three for all but two of the events. Twenty-five of the events were associated with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray class X flares. We compare this result with the spectral index measured from electron pulse events, lasting approx. one hour or less, where the spectral index is typically much softer than three. This suggests that the measured spectral index of near-relativistic electrons at one AU may be a reliable indicator of the source. We also examine the likelihood that fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are responsible in themselves for accelerating near-relativistic electrons and conclude that they do not.     

Unusual Emissions at Various Energies Prior to the Impulsive Phase of the Large Solar Flare and Coronal Mass Ejection of 4 November 2003

The GOES X28 flare of 4 November 2003 was the largest ever recorded in its class. It produced the first evidence for two spectrally separated emission components, one at microwaves and the other in the THz range of frequencies. We analyzed the pre-flare phase of this large flare, twenty?minutes before the onset of the major impulsive burst. This period is characterized by unusual activity in X-rays, sub-THz frequencies, H??, and microwaves. The CME onset occurred before the onset of the large burst by about 6?min. It was preceded by pulsations of 3??C?5?s periods at sub-THz frequencies together with X-ray and microwave enhancements. The sub-THz pulsations faded out as impulsive bursts were detected at 100??C?300?keV and 7?GHz, close to the time of the first H?? brightening and the CME onset. The activities detected prior to and at the CME onset were located nearly 2?arcmin south of the following large flare, suggesting they were separate events. This unusual activity brings new clues to understanding the complex energy buildup mechanisms prior to the CME onset, occurring at a distinct location and well before the major flare that exploded afterwards.     

Hard x-ray Pulsations in the Initial Phase of Flares

When analyzing light curves of hard X-ray bursts recorded by the Hard X-Ray Spectrometer on board the MTI satellite, we have found three events (all associated with major solar flares, two of them in the same active region) which show pulsations in the very initial phase of the burst. Periods of the pulsations range from 25 to 48 s. We compare them with other observations of pulsations of radio waves and in X-rays and conclude that pulsations of this kind have not been observed before. We mention several possible causes and prefer interactions between current-carrying loops as the most likely interpretation of the observed variations.     

The Automatic Predictability of Super Geomagnetic Storms from halo CMEs associated with Large Solar Flares

We investigate the relationship between magnetic structures of coronal mass ejection (CME) source regions and geomagnetic storms, in particular, the super storms when the D _st index decreases below −200 nT. By examining all full halo CMEs that erupted between 1996 and 2004, we selected 73 events associated with M-class and X-class solar flares, which have a clearly identifiable source region. By analyzing daily full-disk MDI magnetograms, we found that the horizontal gradient of the line-of-sight magnetic field is a viable parameter to identify a flaring magnetic neutral line and thus can be used to predict the possible source region of CMEs. The accuracy of this prediction is about 75%, especially for those associated with X-class flares (up to 89%). The mean orientation of the magnetic structures of source regions was derived and characterized by the orientation angle θ, which is defined to be ≤ 90^∘ in the case of the southward orientation and ≥ 90^∘, when the magnetic structure is northwardly oriented. The orientation angle was calculated as the median orientation angle of extrapolated field lines relative to the flaring neutral line. We report that for about 92% of super storms (12 out of 13 events) the orientation angle was found to be southward. In the case of intense and moderate storms (D _st≥ −200 nT), the relationship is less pronounced (70%, 21 out of 30 events). Our findings demonstrate that the approach presented in this paper can be used to perform an automatic prediction of the occurrence of large X-class flares and super geomagnetic storms.     

Statistical Characteristics on SEPs,Radio-Loud CMEs,Low Frequency Type II and Type III Radio Bursts Associated with Impulsive and Gradual Flares

We have statistically analyzed a set of 115 low frequency (Deca-Hectometer wavelengths range) type II and type III bursts associated with major Solar Energetic Particle (SEP: E_p?>?10 MeV) events and their solar causes such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed from 1997 to 2014. We classified them into two sets of events based on the duration of the associated solar flares:75 impulsive flares (duration <?60 min) and 40 gradual flares (duration >?60 min).On an average, the peak flux (integrated flux) of impulsive flares?×?2.9 (0.32 J m^?2) is stronger than that of gradual flares M6.8 (0.24 J m^?2). We found that impulsive flare-associated CMEs are highly decelerated with larger initial acceleration and they achieved their peak speed at lower heights (??27.66 m s^?2 and 14.23 R_o) than the gradual flare-associated CMEs (6.26 m s^?2 and 15.30 R_o), even though both sets of events have similar sky-plane speed (space speed) within LASCO field of view. The impulsive flare-associated SEP events (R_t?=?989.23 min: 2.86 days) are short lived and they quickly reach their peak intensity (shorter rise time) when compared with gradual flares associated events (R_t?=?1275.45 min: 3.34 days). We found a good correlation between the logarithmic peak intensity of all SEPs and properties of CMEs (space speed: cc?=?0.52, SE_cc?=?0.083), and solar flares (log integrated flux: cc?=?0.44, SE_cc?=?0.083). This particular result gives no clear cut distinction between flare-related and CME-related SEP events for this set of major SEP events. We derived the peak intensity, integrated intensity, duration and slope of these bursts from the radio dynamic spectra observed by Wind/WAVES. Most of the properties (peak intensity, integrated intensity and starting frequency) of DH type II bursts associated with impulsive and gradual flare events are found to be similar in magnitudes. Interestingly, we found that impulsive flare-associated DH type III bursts are longer, stronger and faster (31.30 min, 6.43 sfu and 22.49 MHz h^?1) than the gradual flare- associated DH type III bursts (25.08 min, 5.85 sfu and 17.84 MHz h^?1). In addition, we also found a significant correlation between the properties of SEPs and key parameters of DH type III bursts. This result shows a closer association of peak intensity of the SEPs with the properties of DH type III radio bursts than with the properties DH type II radio bursts, atleast for this set of 115 major SEP events.

     

Multi-Wavelength Analysis of High-Energy Electrons in Solar Flares: A Case Study of the August 20, 2002 Flare

A multi-wavelength spatial and temporal analysis of solar high-energy electrons is conducted using the August 20, 2002 flare of an unusually flat (γ₁ = 1.8) hard X-ray spectrum. The flare is studied using RHESSI, Hα, radio, TRACE, and MDI observations with advanced methods and techniques never previously applied in the solar flare context. A new method to account for X-ray Compton backscattering in the photosphere (photospheric albedo) has been used to deduce the primary X-ray flare spectra. The mean electron flux distribution has been analysed using both forward fitting and model-independent inversion methods of spectral analysis. We show that the contribution of the photospheric albedo to the photon spectrum modifies the calculated mean electron flux distribution, mainly at energies below ∼100 keV. The positions of the Hα emission and hard X-ray sources with respect to the current-free extrapolation of the MDI photospheric magnetic field and the characteristics of the radio emission provide evidence of the closed geometry of the magnetic field structure and the flare process in low altitude magnetic loops. In agreement with the predictions of some solar flare models, the hard X-ray sources are located on the external edges of the Hα emission and show chromospheric plasma heated by the non-thermal electrons. The fast changes of Hα intensities are located not only inside the hard X-ray sources, as expected if they are the signatures of the chromospheric response to the electron bombardment, but also away from them.     

3-D Magnetic Field Configuration Late in a Large Two-Ribbon Flare

We present H and coronal X-ray images of the large two-ribbon flare of 25–26 June, 1992 during its long-lasting gradual decay phase. From these observations we deduce that the 3-D magnetic field configuration late in this flare was similar to that at and before the onset of such large eruptive bipolar flares: the sheared core field running under and out of the flare arcade was S-shaped, and at least one elbow of the S looped into the low corona. From previous observations of filament-eruption flares, we infer that such core-field coronal elbows, though rarely observed, are probably a common feature of the 3-D magnetic field configuration late in large two-ribbon flares. The rare circumstance that apparently resulted in a coronal elbow of the core field being visible in H in our flare was the occurrence of a series of subflares low in the core field under the late-phase arcade of the large flare; these subflares probably produced flaring arches in the northern coronal elbow, thereby rendering this elbow visible in H. The observed late-phase 3-D field configuration presented here, together with the recent sheared-core bipolar magnetic field model of Antiochos, Dahlburg, and Klimchuk (1994) and recent Yohkoh SXT observations of the coronal magnetic field configuration at and before the onset of large eruptive bipolar flares, supports the seminal 3-D model for eruptive two-ribbon flares proposed by Hirayama (1974), with three modifications: (1) the preflare magnetic field is closed over the filament-holding core field; (2) the preflare core field has the shape of an S (or backward S) with coronal elbows; (3) a lower part of the core field does not erupt and open, but remains closed throughout flare, and can have prominent coronal elbows. In this picture, the rest of the core field, the upper part, does erupt and open along with the preflare arcade envelope field in which it rides; the flare arcade is formed by reconnection that begins in the middle of the core field at the start of the eruption and progresses from reconnecting closed core field early in the flare to reconnecting opened envelope field late in the flare.     

Initial Fe/O Enhancements in Large, Gradual, Solar Energetic Particle Events: Observations from Wind and Ulysses

Shocks driven by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the dominant particle accelerators in large, “gradual” solar energetic particle (SEP) events. In these events, the event-integrated value of the iron-to-oxygen ratio (Fe/O) is typically ～?0.1, at least at energies of a few MeV/nucleon. However, at the start of some gradual events, when intensities are low and growing, initially Fe/O is ～?1. This value is also characteristic of small, “impulsive” SEP events, in which particle acceleration is due to magnetic reconnection. These observations suggested that SEPs in gradual events also include a direct contribution from the flare that accompanied the CME launch. If correct, this interpretation is of critical importance: it indicates a clear path to interplanetary space for particles from the reconnection region beneath the CME. A key issue for the flare origin is “magnetic connectedness”, i.e., proximity of the flare site to the solar footpoint of the observer’s magnetic field line. We present two large gradual events observed in 2001 by Wind at L1 and by Ulysses, when it was located at >?60^° heliolatitude and beyond 1.6 AU. In these events, transient Fe/O enhancements at 5?–?10 MeV/nucleon were seen at both spacecraft, even though one or both is not “well-connected” to the flare. These observations demonstrate that an initial Fe/O enhancement cannot be cited as evidence for a direct flare component. Instead, initial Fe/O enhancements are better understood as a transport effect, driven by the different mass-to-charge ratios of Fe and O. We further demonstrate that the time-constant of the roughly exponential decay of the Fe/O ratio scales as R ², where R is the observer’s radial distance from the Sun. This behavior is consistent with radial diffusion. These observations thus also provide a potential constraint on models in which SEPs reach high heliolatitudes by cross-field diffusion.     

Quasi-Simultaneous Flux Emergence in the Events of October – November 2003

From late October to the beginning of November 2003, a series of intense solar eruptive events took place on the Sun. More than six active regions (ARs), including three large ARs (NOAA numbers AR 10484, AR 10486, and AR 10488), were involved in the activity. Among the six ARs, four of them bear obviously quasi-simultaneous emergence of magnetic flux. Based on the global Hα and SOHO/EIT EUV observations, we found that a very long filament channel went through the six ARs. This implies that there is a magnetic connection among these ARs. The idea of large-scale magnetic connectivity among the ARs is supported by the consistency of the same chirality in the three major ARs and in their associated magnetic clouds. Although the detailed mechanisms for the quasi-simultaneous flux emergence and the large-scale flux system formation need to be extensively investigated, the observations provide new clues in studying the global solar activity.     

The Interplanetary Responses to the Great Solar Activities in Late October 2003

Based on the observations of the Sun and the interplanetary medium, a series of solar activities in late October 2003 and their consequences are studied comprehensively. Thirteen X-ray flares with importance greater than M-class, six frontside halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with span angle larger than 100 and three associated eruptions of filament materials are identified by examining lots of solar observations from October 26 to 29. All these flares were associated with type III radio bursts, all the frontside halo CMEs were accompanied by type II or type II-like radio bursts. Particularly, among these activities, two major solar events caused two extraordinary enhancements (exceeding 1000 particles/(cm²s^–1sterMev^–1) of solar energetic particle (SEP) flux intensity near the Earth, two large ejecta with fast shocks preceding, and two great geomagnetic storms with Dst peak value of –363 and –401 nT, respectively. By using a cross correlation technique and a force-free cylindrical flux rope model, the October 29 magnetic cloud associated with the largest CME are analyzed, including its orientation and the sign of its helicity. It is found that the helicity of the cloud is negative, contrary to the regular statistical pattern that negative- and positive-helical interplanetary magnetic clouds would be expected to come from northern and southern solar hemisphere. Moreover, the relationship between the orientation of magnetic cloud and associated filament is discussed. In addition, some discussion concerning multiple-magnetic-cloud structures and SEP events is also given.     

The Morphology of Decimetric Emission from Solar Flares: GMRT Observations

Observations of a solar flare at 617 MHz with the Giant Meter-wave Radio Telescope (GMRT) are used to study the morphology of flare radio emission at decimetric wavelengths. There has been very little imaging in the 500 – 1000 MHz frequency range, but it is of great interest, since it corresponds to densities at which energy is believed to be released in solar flares. This event has a very distinctive morphology at 617 MHz: the radio emission is clearly resolved by the 30″ beam into arc-shaped sources seeming to lie at the tops of long loops, anchored at one end in the active region in which the flare occurs, with the other end lying some 200 000 km away in a region of quiet solar atmosphere. Microwave images show fairly conventional behaviour for the flare in the active region: it consists of two compact sources overlying regions of opposite magnetic polarity in the photosphere. The decimetric emission is confined to the period leading up to the impulsive phase of the flare, and does not extend over a wide frequency range. This fact suggests a flare mechanism in which the magnetic field at considerable height in the corona is destabilized a few minutes prior to the main energy release lower in the corona. The radio morphology also suggests that the radiating electrons are trapped near the tops of magnetic loops, and therefore may have pitch angles near 90˚.     

Evolution and flare productivity of active regions in October–November 2003

In the current solar cycle, the concentration of flare activity peaked during the period from October 19 to November 5, 2003, 3.5 years after the maximum point of the current solar-activity cycle. During this time, 56 high-(16) and medium-class flares occurred on the Sun, including 11 X flares. The flux of every such flare exceeded by a factor of 30 to 600 the 1–8 Å soft X-ray background flux of the entire Sun during flare-free periods. The disturbances caused by these flares produced six major S2-to S4-level proton events and four G1-to G5-class magnetic storms in the Earth’s space environment. Among the solar events observed were the most powerful X-ray flare of the current solar cycle, the eighth solar proton event in terms of particle flux during the entire history of observations, and the seventh magnetic storm in terms of Ap index. The most powerful flare resulted in the fastest coronal mass ejection during the current solar cycle with the solar plasma moving through interplanetary space at a velocity of 10⁶ km/s, which is about four times higher than the average velocity. Severe magnetic storms during the period from September 29 through October 3 posed a lot of problems for research and technological satellites (Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), Aqua, Chandra, Chips, Cluster, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 9, 10, and 12, etc.) and spacecraft in interplanetary space (Mars Explorer Rover and Microwave Anisotropy Probe). The Advanced Earth Observing Satellite 2 (ADEOS 2), a Japanese satellite for monitoring the Earth’s environment, was disabled at the time of the arrival of the powerful interplanetary shock from the superflare of October 28, 2003. During this period, the ISS astronauts were forced to escape into the aft part of the station five times, which ensured the strongest protection against radiation. This paper is dedicated to the study of the solar situation and individual flare events.     

The 2003 November 14 occultation by Titan of TYC 1343-1865-1: II. Analysis of light curves

We observed a stellar occultation by Titan on 2003 November 14 from La Palma Observatory using ULTRACAM with three Sloan filters: u^′, g^′, and i^′ (358, 487, and 758 nm, respectively). The occultation probed latitudes 2° S and 1° N during immersion and emersion, respectively. A prominent central flash was present in only the i^′ filter, indicating wavelength-dependent atmospheric extinction. We inverted the light curves to obtain six lower-limit temperature profiles between 335 and 485 km (0.04 and 0.003 mb) altitude. The i^′ profiles agreed with the temperature measured by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument [Fulchignoni, M., and 43 colleagues, 2005. Nature 438, 785–791] above 415 km (0.01 mb). The profiles obtained from different wavelength filters systematically diverge as altitude decreases, which implies significant extinction in the light curves. Applying an extinction model [Elliot, J.L., Young, L.A., 1992. Astron. J. 103, 991–1015] gave the altitudes of line of sight optical depth equal to unity: 396±7 and 401±20 km (u^′ immersion and emersion); 354±7 and 387±7 km (g^′ immersion and emersion); and 336±5 and 318±4 km (i^′ immersion and emersion). Further analysis showed that the optical depth follows a power law in wavelength with index 1.3±0.2. We present a new method for determining temperature from scintillation spikes in the occulting body's atmosphere. Temperatures derived with this method are equal to or warmer than those measured by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument. Using the highly structured, three-peaked central flash, we confirmed the shape of Titan's middle atmosphere using a model originally derived for a previous Titan occultation [Hubbard, W.B., and 45 colleagues, 1993. Astron. Astrophys. 269, 541–563].     

1986年2月4日太阳耀斑的演化研究

本文根据乌鲁木齐天文站的H_α耀斑及3.2cm射电流量观侧资料、云南天文台的黑子精细结构照相和Marshall Space Flight Center的向量磁场图,对1986年2月4日的六个耀斑的形态相关及演化联系,特别是0736UT 4B/3X大耀斑的发展过程进行了综合分析。主要结果是: 1.4日大耀斑的初始亮点和闪光相的主要形态演化,与活动区中沿中性线新浮现的强大电流/磁环系密切相关。后者的主要标志是沿中性线的长的剪切半影纤维及它两端的偶极旋涡黑子群(1_3F_3)。 2.上述大耀斑与1972年8月4日0624 UT大耀斑爆发的磁场背景及主要形态特征相似,表明两者的储能和触发机制可能相同。 3.大耀斑爆发的H_α初始亮点,双带出现,环系形成,亮物质抛射和吸收冕珥等现象同3.2cm射电流量的变化在时间上有较好的对应关系。 4.重复性的前期小耀斑爆发位置和发展趋势与大耀斑的主要形态及演化特征相似。它们相对于剪切的纵场中性线两侧的位置相近或相同。因而,可以看作上述强大电流/磁环系不稳性发展过程中的前置小爆发。     

Predicting Flares and Solar Energetic Particle Events: The FORSPEF Tool

A novel integrated prediction system for solar flares (SFs) and solar energetic particle (SEP) events is presented here. The tool called forecasting solar particle events and flares (FORSPEF) provides forecasts of solar eruptive events, such as SFs with a projection to occurrence and velocity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the likelihood of occurrence of an SEP event. In addition, the tool provides nowcasting of SEP events based on actual SF and CME near real-time data, as well as the SEP characteristics (e.g. peak flux, fluence, rise time, and duration) per parent solar event. The prediction of SFs relies on the effective connected magnetic field strength (\(B_{\mathrm{eff}}\)) metric, which is based on an assessment of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations, and it uses a sophisticated statistical analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events, new statistical methods have been developed for the likelihood of the SEP occurrence and the expected SEP characteristics. The prediction window in the forecasting scheme is 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours, while the respective prediction time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and ranges between 15?–?20 minutes for solar flares and 6 hours for CMEs. We present the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection, and the operational setup. Finally, we demonstrate the validation of the modules of the FORSPEF tool using categorical scores constructed on archived data, and we also discuss independent case studies.     

A Challenging Solar Eruptive Event of 18 November 2003 and the Causes of the 20 November Geomagnetic Superstorm. II. CMEs, Shock Waves, and Drifting Radio Bursts

We continue our study (Grechnev et al., 2013, doi: 10.1007/s11207-013-0316-6 ; Paper I) on the 18 November 2003 geoffective event. To understand possible impact on geospace of coronal transients observed on that day, we investigated their properties from solar near-surface manifestations in extreme ultraviolet, LASCO white-light images, and dynamic radio spectra. We reconcile near-surface activity with the expansion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and determine their orientation relative to the earthward direction. The kinematic measurements, dynamic radio spectra, and microwave and X-ray light curves all contribute to the overall picture of the complex event and confirm an additional eruption at 08:07?–?08:20 UT close to the solar disk center presumed in Paper I. Unusual characteristics of the ejection appear to match those expected for a source of the 20 November superstorm but make its detection in LASCO images hopeless. On the other hand, none of the CMEs observed by LASCO seem to be a promising candidate for a source of the superstorm being able to produce, at most, a glancing blow on the Earth’s magnetosphere. Our analysis confirms free propagation of shock waves revealed in the event and reconciles their kinematics with “EUV waves” and dynamic radio spectra up to decameters.     

太阳耀斑非热电子动力学研究

主要讨论太阳耀斑过程中非热电子动力学过程的理论模型以及在硬X射线和射电波段的观测特征。现在广为接受的非热电子动力学过程的模型是"俘获+沉降"模型,由电子的加速、注入、沉降、俘获及能量损失5个部分组成。射电和硬X射线爆发是非热电子在输运过程中与磁场、背景等离子体及其产生的波等相互作用的产物,是非热电子动力学过程的即时反映。通过分析射电和硬X射线辐射的流量、谱和成像特征,可以研究非热电子的空间分布和时间演化,研究非热电子输运过程中发生的碰撞、辐射、散射、波-波、波-粒相互作用等物理过程,研究耀斑磁场、背景等离子体特征,进而为太阳耀斑的磁场结构、太阳大气分布、磁重联模型的研究提供理论和观测依据。