Analysis and automatic processing in near-field of eight 1992–1994 tsunamigenic earthquakes: Improvements towards real-time tsunami warning

We study eight tsunamigenic earthquakes of 1992–1994 with data from single near-field 3-component long-period stations. The analysis is made from the standpoint of tsunami warning by an automatic process which estimates the epicentral location and the seismic moment through the variable-period mantle magnitudeM _m . Simulations of early warning based on the real-time computation of the seismic moment are also tested with this system, which would give a justified warning in each region of tsunami potentiality. By exploiting the dependence of moment rate release with frequency, the system has the capability of recognizing both tsunami earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua and 1994 Java events, as well as instances of the opposite case of low-frequency deficiency, interpreted as indicating a deeper than normal source (1993 Guam event). We report both the results of delayed-time processing of the near-field stations, and the actual real-time warnings at PPT, which confirm the former.     

Historical 1942 Ecuador and 1942 Peru subduction earthquakes and earthquake cycles along Colombia-Ecuador and Peru subduction segments

Two large shallow earthquakes occurred in 1942 along the South American subduction zone inclose proximity to subducting oceanic ridges: The 14 May event occurred near the subducting Carnegie ridge off the coast of Ecuador, and the 24 August event occurred off the coast of southwestern Peru near the southern flank of the subducting Nazca ridge. Source parameters for these for these two historic events have been determined using long-periodP waveforms,P-wave first motions, intensities and local tsunami data.We have analyzed theP waves for these two earthquakes to constrain the focal mechanism, depth, source complexity and seismic moment. Modeling of theP waveform for both events yields a range of acceptable focal mechanisms and depths, all of which are consistent with underthrusting of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate. The source time function for the 1942 Ecuador event has one simple pulse of moment release with a duration of 22 suconds, suggesting that most of the moment release occurred near the epicenter. The seismic moment determined from theP waves is 6–8×10²⁰N·m, corresponding ot a moment magnitude of 7.8–7.9. The reported location of the maximum intensities (IX) for this event is south of the main shock epicenter. The relocated aftershcks are in an area that is approximately 200 km by 90 km (elongated parallel to the trench) with the majority of aftershocks north of the epicenter. In contrast, the 1942 Peru event has a much longer duration and higher degree of complexity than the Ecuador earthquake, suggesting a heterogeneous rupture. Seismic moment is released in three distinct pulses over approximately 74 seconds; the largest moment release occurs 32 seconds after rupture initiation. the seismic moment as determined from theP waves for the 1942 Peru event is 10–25×10²⁰N·m, corresponding to a moment magnitude of 7.9–8.2. Aftershock locations reported by the ISS occur over a broad area surrounding the main shock. The reported locations of the maximum intensities (IX) are concentrated south of the epicenter, suggesting that at least part of the rupture was to the south.We have also examined great historic earthquakes along the Colombia-Ecuador and Peru segments of the South American subduction zone. We find that the size and rupture length of the underthrusting earthquakes vary between successive earthquake cycles. This suggests that the segmentation of the plate boundary as defined by earthquakes this century is not constant.     

Vent temperature trends at the Vulcano Fossa fumarole field: the role of permeability

Between 1994 and 2010, we completed 16 thermal surveys of Vulcano’s Fossa fumarole field (Aeolian Islands, Italy). In each survey, between 400 and 1,200 vent temperatures were collected using a thermal infrared thermometer from distances of ～1?m. The results show a general decrease in average vent temperature during 1994–2003, with the average for the entire field falling from ～220°C in 1994 to ～150°C by 2003. However, between 2004 and 2010, we witnessed heating, with the average increasing to ～190°C by 2010. Alongside these annual-scale field-wide trends, we record a spatial re-organisation of the fumarole field, characterised by shut down of vent zones towards the crater floor, matched by rejuvenation of zones located towards the crater rim. Heating may be expected to be associated with deflation because increased amounts of vaporisation will remove volume from the hydrothermal system Gambino and Guglielmino (J Geophys Res 113:B07402, 2008). However, over the 2004–2010 heating period, no ground deformation was observed. Instead, the number of seismic events increased from a typical rate of 37 events per month during 1994–2000 to 195 events per month during 2004–2010. As part of this increase, we noticed a much greater number of high-frequency events associated with rock fracturing. We thus suggest that the heating event of 2004–2010 was the result of changed permeability conditions, rather than change in the heat supply from the deeper magmatic source. Within this scenario, cooling causes shut down of lower sectors and re-establishment of pathways located towards the crater rim, causing fracturing, increased seismicity and heat flow in these regions. This is consistent with the zone of rejuvenation (which lies towards and at the rim) being the most favourable location for fracturing given the stress field of the Fossa cone Sch?pa et al. (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 203:133–145, 2011); it is also the most established zone, having been active at least since the early twentieth century. Our data show the value of deploying multi-disciplinary geophysical campaigns at degassing (fumarolic) hydrothermal systems. This allows more complete and constrained understanding of the true heat loss dynamics of the system. In the case study presented here, it allows us to distinguish true heating from apparent heating phases. While the former are triggered from the bottom-up, i.e. they are driven by increases in heat supply from the magmatic source, the latter are triggered from the top-down, i.e. by changing permeability conditions in the uppermost portion of the system to allow more efficient heat flow over zones predisposed to fracturing.     

紫坪铺水库地区蓄水前后视应力标度率变化研究

本文利用紫坪铺水库台网记录到的波形资料,计算了2004～2008年170个M_L≥1.0级地震的震源参数.紫坪铺水库震源参数计算结果与其他大陆地区有明显不同:(1)拐角频率远低于其他大陆地区结果,表明库区地震波传播经过了较强的衰减过程;(2)视应力计算结果比其他地区小3个数量级,可能是由于库区地震波的高频成分衰减强烈,低估了能量集中在高频的小地震的地震辐射能量.分析了蓄水前后拐角频率和地震矩以及视应力和地震矩关系(视应力标度率)变化,结果表明:相同地震矩的地震蓄水后拐角频率增加,地震高频成分相对丰富;蓄水前视应力与地震矩的关系不明显,蓄水后视应力随地震矩的增加而增加.视应力标度率的改变可能是蓄水后地震震源物理过程逐渐改变的直接反映.     

乳山震群震源谱参数的稳健反演

本文引入截止频率f_(max)提出基于Brune模型的高频截止(High-Cut)模型,采用两步反演的方法来拟合求解震源谱的特征参数,并给出其误差范围;实际应用显示该模型的理论谱对观测谱有很好的拟合,可明显改善拐角频率识别的准确度.将该方法应用于2013—2015年的乳山震群,计算了乳山震群25次M_L≥3.0事件的震源参数(地震矩、破裂半径、应力降等),进一步对乳山震群的震源破裂特性进行了讨论.结果显示:拐角频率、应力降与震源尺度大小明显相关;高频衰减系数γ与震源破裂区的复杂程度以及破裂性质有关,当观测记录中混杂有其他事件的波形或微破裂时,高频衰减系数大于2,并且不确定性增大;截止频率f_(max)与地震大小存在一定相关性;使用Beresnev(2001)给出的震源半径计算公式,得到的乳山震群的结果显示与华北地区的经验关系较为一致;乳山震群的应力降明显偏小(最大不超过0.15 MPa),一方面反映了震中区域的构造应力水平,另一方面可能还意味着此次震群是一个相对非耗散型的脆性破裂过程,属于低摩擦应力的断层作用.     

山西地区震源新参数间关系初探

利用“十五”数字化后山西地震台网记录的612次 ML ≥2．0地震,使用中国地震局地震预测研究所推广的中小地震新参数计算软件,计算其中148次事件的震源新参数,对地震矩、矩震级、震源破裂尺度、应力降、拐角频率等参数间的定标关系做初步研究,得出 ML 震级与地震矩、矩震级间存在较好的线性正相关;震级与震源尺度间存在多项式关系;与应力降的对数呈显著正相关,当大于 ML 4．0后,随着震级的增大,释放的应力降略有变缓;与拐角频率的对数呈负相关。     

2013年前郭MS5.8震群矩张量研究

2013年吉林前郭M_S5.8震群为爆发性震群,目前余震活动仍然在持续.基于吉林、辽宁、黑龙江、内蒙古四省地震台网记录的前郭震群波形资料,利用波形信噪比、震源类型、台站及速度模型组合的指标选择最佳的反演方案,应用矩张量的三种反演模式,对序列中5个M_S≥5.0地震进行矩张量反演研究,获得了全矩张量、偏矩张量和纯双力偶的矩张量.使用F-test对地震的三种模式的矩张量反演结果进行显著性检验来确定最佳反演模式.结果显示,5个地震的最优矩张量解均为全矩张量模式反演获得的结果,其双力偶分量仅有20%~65%,矩心深度位于地下3~4 km处,地震在Hudson震源类型图上的投影远离双力偶震源类型区域.这些结果表明,震源类型并非典型的构造地震,推断前郭地震可能是与人类活动有关的诱发地震.     

Source Mechanisms of Induced Earthquakes at The Geysers Geothermal Reservoir

At The Geysers geothermal reservoir in northern California, evidence strongly suggests that activities associated with production of electric power cause an increase in the number of small earthquakes. First-degree dynamic moment tensors are used to investigate the relationship between induced earthquakes and injection of water into a well as part of a controlled experiment in the northwest Geysers. The estimation of dynamic moment tensors in the complex shallow crust at The Geysers is challenging, so the method is described in detail with particular attention given to the uncertainty in the results. For seismic events in the moment magnitude range of 0.9–2.8, spectral moduli of dynamic moment tensors are reliably recovered in the frequency range of 1–100 Hz, but uncertainty in the associated spectral phases limits their use to a few simple results. A number of different static moment tensors are investigated, with the preferred one obtained from parameters of a model fitted to the spectral modulus of the dynamic moment tensor. Moment tensors estimated for a group of 20 earthquakes exhibit a range of source mechanisms, with over half having significant isotropic parts of either positive or negative sign. Corner frequencies of the isotropic part of the moment tensor are about 40 % larger than the average of the deviatoric moment tensor. Some spatial patterns are present in source mechanisms, with earthquakes closely related in space tending to have similar mechanisms, but at the same time, some nearby earthquakes have very different mechanisms. Tensional axes of displacement in the source regions are primarily horizontal, while the pressure axes range from near horizontal to vertical. Injection of water into the well in the center of the study area clearly causes an increase in the number of earthquakes per day, but an effect upon source mechanisms is not evident.     

Source mechanism of long-period events at Kusatsu–Shirane Volcano, Japan, inferred from waveform inversion of the effective excitation functions

We investigate the source mechanism of long-period (LP) events observed at Kusatsu–Shirane Volcano, Japan, based on waveform inversions of their effective excitation functions. The effective excitation function, which represents the apparent excitation observed at individual receivers, is estimated by applying an autoregressive filter to the LP waveform. Assuming a point source, we apply this method to seven LP events the waveforms of which are characterized by simple decaying and nearly monochromatic oscillations with frequency in the range 1–3 Hz. The results of the waveform inversions show dominant volumetric change components accompanied by single force components, common to all the events analyzed, and suggesting a repeated activation of a sub-horizontal crack located 300 m beneath the summit crater lakes. Based on these results, we propose a model of the source process of LP seismicity, in which a gradual buildup of steam pressure in a hydrothermal crack in response to magmatic heat causes repeated discharges of steam from the crack. The rapid discharge of fluid causes the collapse of the fluid-filled crack and excites acoustic oscillations of the crack, which produce the characteristic waveforms observed in the LP events. The presence of a single force synchronous with the collapse of the crack is interpreted as the release of gravitational energy that occurs as the slug of steam ejected from the crack ascends toward the surface and is replaced by cooler water flowing downward in a fluid-filled conduit linking the crack and the base of the crater lake.     

Broadband seismic experiment at Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia: very-long-period pulses embedded in multiphase earthquakes

Multiphase (MP) and low frequency (LF) earthquakes with spectral peak amplitudes at 3–4 and 1 Hz, respectively, are two common types of shallow volcanic earthquakes previously recognized at Merapi Volcano. Their mechanisms are poorly understood but MPs have been temporally associated with lava dome growth. We conducted a seismic experiment in January–February 1998, using four broadband seismographs to investigate the nature of seismic activity associated with dome growth. During our experiment, Merapi experienced mild dome growth with low-level seismic activity. We compare our data to that recorded on a local short-period (SP) network, with the following preliminary results.MP and LF events as recorded and classified on the short-period network instruments were recognized on the broadband network. Frequency spectrograms revealed similar patterns in the near summit region at widely separated broadband stations. Higher frequency spectra than previously recognized were identified for both MP and LF events, and were strongly attenuated as a function of radial distance from the source. Thus the spectral characteristics of these events as recorded on far-field stations are not fully indicative of the source processes. In particular, many events classified as LF-type appear to have much high frequency energy near the source. This aspect of these so-called LF earthquakes, and their association with very-long-period (VLP) pulses, suggests that many events identified in the far-field as LF events are in actuality a variety of the MP event and involve similar source processes. Broadband records indicated that simple large-amplitude VLP pulses were embedded in MP and LF wavetrains. From event to event these pulses were similar in their waveforms and had periods of 4 s. VLP events embedded in LF and MP earthquakes were located using particle motions. The epicenters were clustered in a central region of the dome complex, and preliminary source depths were within about 100 m of the dome surface, suggesting a source region deep within the dome or the uppermost conduit. A similar source location was established by study of MP high-frequency onsets. Our broadband data suggests that we have recorded both elastic seismic waves and a simple embedded pulse that is interpreted to represent a surface tilt at the seismometer site. The inferred tilt indicates an inflation and subsequent deflation, possibly caused by a gas pressure pulse or episodic shallow magma transport with stick-slip movement of the conduit wall.     

1995年陡河地震前后小震震源参数及其相互关系

在震源谱的多台多震尾波解法的基础上,应用Brune震源模型,求解1995年10月6日陡河ML5.9地震前后在其周围发生的48次小地震的震源因子和震源波谱,进而估算了地震矩、拐角频率和应力降,并讨论了它们之间的相互关系和在陡河地震前后随时间的变化．结果表明:小震震源因子表现出相当大的稳定性,震源因子的峰值频率和随频率的变化形态都很相似．发现震前一年左右曾多次出现应力降较高的事件．需要指出的是,考虑到应力降由地震矩和拐角频率计算得到以及地震矩和拐角频率的相关关系,实际上,这里的高应力降指的是拐角频率高于正常值的情形．      

New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 2. Future estimates and use in impact studies

Under enhanced greenhouse conditions, climate models suggest an increase in rainfall intensities in the northern Hemisphere. Major flood events in the UK during autumn 2000 and central Europe in August 2002, have focussed attention on the dramatic impacts these changes may have on many sectors of society. In the companion paper [Fowler et al., J. Hydrol. (2004) this issue], we suggested that the HadRM3H model may be used with some confidence to estimate extreme rainfall distributions, showing good predictive skill in estimating statistical properties of extreme rainfall during the baseline period, 1961–1990. In this study, we use results from the future integration of HadRM3H (following the IPCC SRES scenario A2 for 2070–2100) to assess possible changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using two methods: regional frequency analysis and individual grid box analysis. Results indicate that for short duration events (1–2 days), event magnitude at a given return period will increase by 10% across the UK. For longer duration events (5–10 days), event magnitudes at given return periods show large increases in Scotland (up to +30%), with greater relative change at higher return periods (25–50 years). In the rest of the UK, there are small increases in the magnitude of more frequent events (up to +10%) but reductions at higher return periods (up to −20%). These results provide information to alter design storm depths to examine climate change impacts on various structures. The uncertainty bounds of the estimated changes and a ‘scaling’ methodology are additionally detailed. This allows the estimation of changes for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, and gives some confidence in the use of these estimates in impact studies.     

Seismic doublets and multiplets at Polish coal and copper mines

The following criteria for selection of doublets at Polish coal mines were accepted: the difference in magnitude (based on seismic moment) of two events not larger than 0.15, the distance between their hypocenters not greater than 150 m, and the time interval between their occurrence not longer than 10 days. Similarly, the criteria for seismic events at copper mines are: the difference in magnitude not exceeding 0.15, the distance not greater than 200 m, and the time interval not longer than 20 days. Seismic events from the Wujek and Ziemowit coal mines that occurred between 1993 and 1995, and seismic events from the Polkowice copper mine that occurred between 1994 and 1996 and from the Rudna copper mine that occurred between 1994 and 2004 were considered. Their source parameters and focal mechanisms were known in most cases from previous studies. Altogether 108 seismic pairs from coal mines and 118 pairs from copper mines were found, forming doublets, triplets and quadruplets, within the magnitude range from 0.7 to 3.5. The distance and time intervals between two events forming pairs are not dependent on magnitude of these events. The focal mechanism of seismic events forming pairs is similar in over 60 percent of pairs at coal mines and in about one third of pairs at copper mines. Spatial distributions of doublets in particular sections of coal and copper mines display dominant linear trends, characteristic for a given area, which are often in conformity with the direction of nodal planes determined by fault plane solution of one or both the events forming a doublet. In such cases, the rupture plane can be discriminated among the nodal planes.     

甘肃地区震源参数的相关性研究

通过对甘肃数字地震台网2008年1月-2009年6月记录的ML 2.0-ML 6.0中小地震,S波观测谱中噪音、仪器、路径、场地等影响的逐一消除,利用遗传算法反演得到甘肃地区273条地震的震源谱,进而根据Brune的圆盘震源模型,计算地震矩、应力降、拐角频率、震源半径等震源参数,并研究甘肃地区震源参数的特征及相似关系....     

安徽地区震源参数的相关性研究

基于安徽数字地震台网2010年1月至2017年12月记录到的ML2.5~5.0级地震,根据中小地震震源参数测定原理,利用多台多地震联合反演Atkinson方法和Moya方法分别计算了安徽地区地壳平均非弹性衰减因子Q值和安徽24个省属专业地震的台站场地。在此基础上,运用遗传算法求得安徽地区96个地震事件的震源谱参数,进而根据Brune中小地震圆盘模型计算其拐角频率、地震矩、应力降、矩震级、震源尺度等震源参数,并分析其特征及相互之间的关系。研究结果表明:安徽地区中小地震的ML震级与其他震源参数之间存在一定相关关系,而地震矩M0与应力降Δσ、震源尺度r和拐角频率fc之间并未表现出明显的相关关系。     

Three Decades of Seismic Activity at Mt. Vesuvius: 1972–2000

We analyse the seismic catalogue of the local earthquakes which occurred at Somma-Vesuvius volcano in the past three decades (1972–2000). The seismicity in this period can be described as composed of a background level, characterised by a low and rather uniform rate of energy release and by sporadic periods of increased seismic activity. Such relatively intense seismicity periods are characterised by energy rates and magnitudes progressively increasing in the critical periods. The analysis of the b value in the whole period evidences a well-defined pattern, with values of b progressively decreasing, from about 1.8 at the beginning of the considered period, to about 1.0 at present. This steady variation indicates an increasing dynamics in the volcanic system. Within this general trend it is possible to identify a substructure in the time sequence of the seismic events, formed by the alternating episodes of quiescence and activity. The analysis of the source moment tensor of the largest earthquakes shows that the processes at the seismic source are generally not consistent with simple double-couples, but that they are compatible with isotropic components, mostly indicating volumetric expansion. These components are shown to be statistically significant for most of the analysed events. Such focal mechanisms can be interpreted as the effect of explosion phenomena, possibly related to volatile exsolution from the crystallising magma. The availability of a reduced amount of high quality data necessary for the inversion of the source moment tensor, the still limited period of systematic observation of Vesuvius micro-earthquakes and, above all, the absence of eruptive events during such interval of time, cannot obviously permit the outlining of any formal premonitory signal. Nevertheless, the analysis reported in this paper indicates a progressively evolving dynamics, characterised by a generally increasing trend in the seismic activity in the volcanic system and by a significant volumetric component of recent major events, thus posing serious concern for a future evolution towards eruptive activity.     

Retrieval of source parameters of an event of the 2000 West Bohemia earthquake swarm assuming an anisotropic crust

We propose an inversion scheme for retrieval of characteristics of seismic point sources, which in contrast to common practice, takes into account anisotropy. If anisotropy is neglected during inversion, the moment tensors retrieved from seismic waves generated by sources situated in anisotropic media may be biased. Instead of the moment tensor, the geometry of the source is retrieved directly in our inversion; if necessary, the moment tensor can be then determined from the source geometry aposteriori. The source geometry is defined by the orientation of the slip vector and the fault normal as well as the strength of the event given by the size of the slip and the area of the fault. This approach allows direct interpretation of the source geometry in terms of shear and tensile faulting. It also makes possible to identify volumetric source changes that occur during rupturing. We apply the described algorithm to one event of the 2000 West Bohemia earthquake swarm episode. For inversion we use information of the direct P waves. The structure is approximated by three different models determined from travel-time observations. The models are inhomogeneous isotropic, inhomogeneous anisotropic, and homogeneous anisotropic. For these models we obtain seismic moments M_T = 3.2 − 3.8 × 10¹⁴ Nm and left-lateral near-vertical oblique normal faulting on a N-S trending rupture surface. The orientation of the rupture surface is consistent with fault-plane solutions of earlier studies and with the spatial distribution of other events during this swarm. The studied event seems to be accompanied by a small amount of crack opening. The amount of crack opening is slightly reduced when the inhomogeneous anisotropic model is assumed, but it persists. These results and additional independent observations seem to indicate that tensile faulting occurs as a result of high fluid pressure.     

Moment tensor inversion of nine events in Iran using INSN data

In this research, moment tensor (MT) inversion procedure in frequency domain is applied to nine events in order to evaluate the data efficiencies in computing source parameters of earthquakes in Iran. The events are recorded by Iranian National Seismological Network (INSN) stations, currently comprising 22 broadband stations. For the purpose of this study, first, the inversion procedure is applied to obtain source parameters. Then, the results obtained here are compared with those of Harvard global centroid moment tensors (GCMT) in order to estimate their reliabilities. The results show reasonable consistencies with those of Harvard GCMT within 0.075 uncertainties in logarithmic scalar moment or 0.05 in moment magnitude and 20° in Kagan angle for focal angles. Furthermore, according to the present research, the calculated source parameters are not significantly sensitive to the azimuthal gap.     

Research Note: Sparsity‐Aware Multiple Microseismic Event Localization Blind to the Source Time‐Function

We consider the problem of simultaneously estimating three parameters of multiple microseimic events, i.e., the hypocenter, moment tensor, and origin time. This problem is of great interest because its solution could provide a better understanding of reservoir behavior and can help to optimize the hydraulic fracturing process. The existing approaches employing spatial source sparsity have advantages over traditional full‐wave inversion‐based schemes; however, their validity and accuracy depend on the knowledge of the source time‐function, which is lacking in practical applications. This becomes even more challenging when multiple microseimic sources appear simultaneously. To cope with this shortcoming, we propose to approach the problem from a frequency‐domain perspective and develop a novel sparsity‐aware framework that is blind to the source time‐function. Through our simulation results with synthetic data, we illustrate that our proposed approach can handle multiple microseismic sources and can estimate their hypocenters with an acceptable accuracy. The results also show that our approach can estimate the normalized amplitude of the moment tensors as a by‐product, which can provide worthwhile information about the nature of the sources.     

Relative seismic moment tensor determination for Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes

The method of relative seismic moment tensor determination proposed byStrelitz (1980) is extended a) from an interactive time domain analysis to an automated frequency domain procedure, and b) from an analysis of subevents of complex deep-focus earthquakes to the study of individual source mechanism of small events recorded at few stations.The method was applied to the recovery of seismic moment tensor components of 95 intermediate depth earthquakes withM _L=2.6–4.9 from the Vrancea region, Romania. The main feature of the obtained fault plane solutions is the horizontality ofP axes and the nonhorizontal orienaation ofT axes (inverse faulting). Those events with high fracture energy per unit area of the fault can be grouped unambiguously into three depth intervals: 102–106 km, 124–135 km and 141–152 km. Moreover, their fault plane solutions are similar to ones of all strong and most moderate events from this region and the last two damaging earthquakes (November 10, 1940 withM _W=7.8 and March 4 1977 withM _W=7.5) occurred within the third and first depth interval, respectively. This suggests a possible correlation at these depths between fresh fracture of rocks and the occurrence of strong earthquakes.